Daily Papers

Missing values are common in real-world time series, and multivariate time series forecasting with missing values (MTSF-M) has become a crucial area of research for ensuring reliable predictions. To address the challenge of missing data, current approaches have developed an imputation-then-prediction framework that uses imputation modules to fill in missing values, followed by forecasting on the imputed data. However, this framework overlooks a critical issue: there is no ground truth for the missing values, making the imputation process susceptible to errors that can degrade prediction accuracy. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study and reveal that imputation without direct supervision can corrupt the underlying data distribution and actively degrade prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose a paradigm shift that moves away from imputation and directly predicts from the partially observed time series. We introduce Consistency-Regularized Information Bottleneck (CRIB), a novel framework built on the Information Bottleneck principle. CRIB combines a unified-variate attention mechanism with a consistency regularization scheme to learn robust representations that filter out noise introduced by missing values while preserving essential predictive signals. Comprehensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CRIB, which predicts accurately even under high missing rates. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/CRIB.

Time Series Imputation (TSI), which aims to recover missing values in temporal data, remains a fundamental challenge due to the complex and often high-rate missingness in real-world scenarios. Existing models typically optimize the point-wise reconstruction loss, focusing on recovering numerical values (local information). However, we observe that under high missing rates, these models still perform well in the training phase yet produce poor imputations and distorted latent representation distributions (global information) in the inference phase. This reveals a critical optimization dilemma: current objectives lack global guidance, leading models to overfit local noise and fail to capture global information of the data. To address this issue, we propose a new training paradigm, Glocal Information Bottleneck (Glocal-IB). Glocal-IB is model-agnostic and extends the standard IB framework by introducing a Global Alignment loss, derived from a tractable mutual information approximation. This loss aligns the latent representations of masked inputs with those of their originally observed counterparts. It helps the model retain global structure and local details while suppressing noise caused by missing values, giving rise to better generalization under high missingness. Extensive experiments on nine datasets confirm that Glocal-IB leads to consistently improved performance and aligned latent representations under missingness. Our code implementation is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/NeurIPS-25-Glocal-IB.

Multimodal models often experience a significant performance drop when one or more modalities are missing during inference. To address this challenge, we propose a simple yet effective approach that enhances robustness to missing modalities while maintaining strong performance when all modalities are available. Our method introduces cross-modal proxy tokens (CMPTs), which approximate the class token of a missing modality by attending only to the tokens of the available modality without requiring explicit modality generation or auxiliary networks. To efficiently learn these approximations with minimal computational overhead, we employ low-rank adapters in frozen unimodal encoders and jointly optimize an alignment loss with a task-specific loss. Extensive experiments on five multimodal datasets show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across various missing rates while achieving competitive results in complete-modality settings. Overall, our method offers a flexible and efficient solution for robust multimodal learning. The code and pretrained models will be released on GitHub.

Irregular sampling intervals and missing values in real-world time series data present challenges for conventional methods that assume consistent intervals and complete data. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs) offer an alternative approach, utilizing neural networks combined with ODE solvers to learn continuous latent representations through parameterized vector fields. Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Neural SDEs) extend Neural ODEs by incorporating a diffusion term, although this addition is not trivial, particularly when addressing irregular intervals and missing values. Consequently, careful design of drift and diffusion functions is crucial for maintaining stability and enhancing performance, while incautious choices can result in adverse properties such as the absence of strong solutions, stochastic destabilization, or unstable Euler discretizations, significantly affecting Neural SDEs' performance. In this study, we propose three stable classes of Neural SDEs: Langevin-type SDE, Linear Noise SDE, and Geometric SDE. Then, we rigorously demonstrate their robustness in maintaining excellent performance under distribution shift, while effectively preventing overfitting. To assess the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets for interpolation, forecasting, and classification tasks, and analyze the robustness of our methods with 30 public datasets under different missing rates. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method in handling real-world irregular time series data.

As a crucial extension of entity alignment (EA), multi-modal entity alignment (MMEA) aims to identify identical entities across disparate knowledge graphs (KGs) by exploiting associated visual information. However, existing MMEA approaches primarily concentrate on the fusion paradigm of multi-modal entity features, while neglecting the challenges presented by the pervasive phenomenon of missing and intrinsic ambiguity of visual images. In this paper, we present a further analysis of visual modality incompleteness, benchmarking latest MMEA models on our proposed dataset MMEA-UMVM, where the types of alignment KGs covering bilingual and monolingual, with standard (non-iterative) and iterative training paradigms to evaluate the model performance. Our research indicates that, in the face of modality incompleteness, models succumb to overfitting the modality noise, and exhibit performance oscillations or declines at high rates of missing modality. This proves that the inclusion of additional multi-modal data can sometimes adversely affect EA. To address these challenges, we introduce UMAEA , a robust multi-modal entity alignment approach designed to tackle uncertainly missing and ambiguous visual modalities. It consistently achieves SOTA performance across all 97 benchmark splits, significantly surpassing existing baselines with limited parameters and time consumption, while effectively alleviating the identified limitations of other models. Our code and benchmark data are available at https://github.com/zjukg/UMAEA.

Despite the development of various deep learning methods for Wi-Fi sensing, package loss often results in noncontinuous estimation of the Channel State Information (CSI), which negatively impacts the performance of the learning models. To overcome this challenge, we propose a deep learning model based on Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) for CSI recovery, named CSI-BERT. CSI-BERT can be trained in an self-supervised manner on the target dataset without the need for additional data. Furthermore, unlike traditional interpolation methods that focus on one subcarrier at a time, CSI-BERT captures the sequential relationships across different subcarriers. Experimental results demonstrate that CSI-BERT achieves lower error rates and faster speed compared to traditional interpolation methods, even when facing with high loss rates. Moreover, by harnessing the recovered CSI obtained from CSI-BERT, other deep learning models like Residual Network and Recurrent Neural Network can achieve an average increase in accuracy of approximately 15\% in Wi-Fi sensing tasks. The collected dataset WiGesture and code for our model are publicly available at https://github.com/RS2002/CSI-BERT.

Neural audio codecs are foundational to speech language models. It is expected to have a low frame rate and decoupled semantic and acoustic information. A lower frame rate codec can reduce the computational cost of speech language models by shortening the sequence length. Recent studies have developed 12.5Hz low-frame-rate audio codecs, but even lower frame rate codecs remain underexplored. We find that a major challenge for very low frame rate tokens is missing semantic information. This paper introduces FlexiCodec to address this limitation. FlexiCodec improves semantic preservation with a dynamic frame rate approach and introduces a novel architecture featuring an ASR feature-assisted dual stream encoding and Transformer bottlenecks. With dynamic frame rates, it uses less frames at information-sparse regions through adaptively merging semantically similar frames. A dynamic frame rate also allows FlexiCodec to support inference-time controllable frame rates between 3Hz and 12.5Hz. Experiments on 6.25Hz, 8.3Hz and 12.5Hz average frame rates confirm that FlexiCodec excels over baseline systems in semantic information preservation and delivers a high audio reconstruction quality. We also validate the effectiveness of FlexiCodec in language model-based TTS. Demos are available at: https://flexicodec.github.io

Simple regret is a natural and parameter-free performance criterion for pure exploration in multi-armed bandits yet is less popular than the probability of missing the best arm or an epsilon-good arm, perhaps due to lack of easy ways to characterize it. In this paper, we make significant progress on minimizing simple regret in both data-rich (Tge n) and data-poor regime (T le n) where n is the number of arms, and T is the number of samples. At its heart is our improved instance-dependent analysis of the well-known Sequential Halving (SH) algorithm, where we bound the probability of returning an arm whose mean reward is not within epsilon from the best (i.e., not epsilon-good) for any choice of epsilon>0, although epsilon is not an input to SH. Our bound not only leads to an optimal worst-case simple regret bound of n/T up to logarithmic factors but also essentially matches the instance-dependent lower bound for returning an epsilon-good arm reported by Katz-Samuels and Jamieson (2020). For the more challenging data-poor regime, we propose Bracketing SH (BSH) that enjoys the same improvement even without sampling each arm at least once. Our empirical study shows that BSH outperforms existing methods on real-world tasks.

We present TokaMind, an open-source foundation model framework for fusion plasma modeling, based on a Multi-Modal Transformer (MMT) and trained on heterogeneous tokamak diagnostics from the publicly available MAST dataset. TokaMind supports multiple data modalities (time-series, 2D profiles, and videos) with different sampling rates, robust missing-signal handling, and efficient task adaptation via selectively loading and freezing four model components. To represent multi-modal signals, we use a training-free Discrete Cosine Transform embedding (DCT3D) and provide a clean interface for alternative embeddings (e.g., Variational Autoencoders - VAEs). We evaluate TokaMind on the recently introduced MAST benchmark TokaMark, comparing training and embedding strategies. Our results show that fine-tuned TokaMind outperforms the benchmark baseline on all but one task, and that, for several tasks, lightweight fine-tuning yields better performance than training the same architecture from scratch under a matched epoch budget. These findings highlight the benefits of multi-modal pretraining for tokamak plasma dynamics and provide a practical, extensible foundation for future fusion modeling tasks. Training code and model weights will be made publicly available.

A unified foundation model for medical time series -- pretrained on open access and ethics board-approved medical corpora -- offers the potential to reduce annotation burdens, minimize model customization, and enable robust transfer across clinical institutions, modalities, and tasks, particularly in data-scarce or privacy-constrained environments. However, existing generalist time series foundation models struggle to handle medical time series data due to their inherent challenges, including irregular intervals, heterogeneous sampling rates, and frequent missing values. To address these challenges, we introduce MIRA, a unified foundation model specifically designed for medical time series forecasting. MIRA incorporates a Continuous-Time Rotary Positional Encoding that enables fine-grained modeling of variable time intervals, a frequency-specific mixture-of-experts layer that routes computation across latent frequency regimes to further promote temporal specialization, and a Continuous Dynamics Extrapolation Block based on Neural ODE that models the continuous trajectory of latent states, enabling accurate forecasting at arbitrary target timestamps. Pretrained on a large-scale and diverse medical corpus comprising over 454 billion time points collect from publicly available datasets, MIRA achieves reductions in forecasting errors by an average of 10% and 7% in out-of-distribution and in-distribution scenarios, respectively, when compared to other zero-shot and fine-tuned baselines. We also introduce a comprehensive benchmark spanning multiple downstream clinical tasks, establishing a foundation for future research in medical time series modeling.

Obtaining the precise 3D motion of a table tennis ball from standard monocular videos is a challenging problem, as existing methods trained on synthetic data struggle to generalize to the noisy, imperfect ball and table detections of the real world. This is primarily due to the inherent lack of 3D ground truth trajectories and spin annotations for real-world video. To overcome this, we propose a novel two-stage pipeline that divides the problem into a front-end perception task and a back-end 2D-to-3D uplifting task. This separation allows us to train the front-end components with abundant 2D supervision from our newly created TTHQ dataset, while the back-end uplifting network is trained exclusively on physically-correct synthetic data. We specifically re-engineer the uplifting model to be robust to common real-world artifacts, such as missing detections and varying frame rates. By integrating a ball detector and a table keypoint detector, our approach transforms a proof-of-concept uplifting method into a practical, robust, and high-performing end-to-end application for 3D table tennis trajectory and spin analysis.

Machine learning (ML) has become a ubiquitous tool across various domains of data mining and big data analysis. The efficacy of ML models depends heavily on high-quality datasets, which are often complicated by the presence of missing values. Consequently, the performance and generalization of ML models are at risk in the face of such datasets. This paper aims to examine the nuanced impact of missing values on ML workflows, including their types, causes, and consequences. Our analysis focuses on the challenges posed by missing values, including biased inferences, reduced predictive power, and increased computational burdens. The paper further explores strategies for handling missing values, including imputation techniques and removal strategies, and investigates how missing values affect model evaluation metrics and introduces complexities in cross-validation and model selection. The study employs case studies and real-world examples to illustrate the practical implications of addressing missing values. Finally, the discussion extends to future research directions, emphasizing the need for handling missing values ethically and transparently. The primary goal of this paper is to provide insights into the pervasive impact of missing values on ML models and guide practitioners toward effective strategies for achieving robust and reliable model outcomes.

We study the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset, which has important applications in many domains. The key to missing value imputation is to capture the data distribution with incomplete samples and impute the missing values accordingly. In this paper, by leveraging the fact that any two batches of data with missing values come from the same data distribution, we propose to impute the missing values of two batches of samples by transforming them into a latent space through deep invertible functions and matching them distributionally. To learn the transformations and impute the missing values simultaneously, a simple and well-motivated algorithm is proposed. Our algorithm has fewer hyperparameters to fine-tune and generates high-quality imputations regardless of how missing values are generated. Extensive experiments over a large number of datasets and competing benchmark algorithms show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

In the coming years, surveys such as the Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to increase the number of observed Tidal Disruption Events (TDEs) substantially. We employ Monte Carlo integration to calculate the unlensed and lensed TDE rate as a function of limiting magnitude in u, g, r, and i-bands. We investigate the impact of multiple luminosity models, black hole mass functions (BHMFs), and flare temperatures on the TDE rate. Notably, this includes a semi-analytical model, which enables the determination of the TDE temperature in terms of black hole (BH) mass. We predict the highest unlensed TDE rate to be in g-band. It ranges from 16 to 5,440;yr^{-1};(20,000;deg^2)^{-1} for the Zwicky Transient Facility, being more consistent with the observed rate at the low end. For LSST, we expect a rate in g-band between 3,580 and 82,060;yr^{-1};(20,000;deg^2)^{-1}. A higher theoretical prediction is understandable, as we do not consider observational effects such as completeness. The unlensed and lensed TDE rates are insensitive to the redshift evolution of the BHMF, even for LSST limiting magnitudes. The best band for detecting lensed TDEs is also g-band. Its predicted rates range from 0.43 to 15;yr^{-1};(20,000;deg^2)^{-1} for LSST. The scatter of predicted rates reduces when we consider the fraction of lensed TDEs; that is, a few in ten thousand TDEs will be lensed. Despite the large scatter in the rates of lensed TDEs, our comprehensive considerations of multiple models suggest that lensed TDEs will occur in the 10-year LSST lifetime, providing an exciting prospect for detecting such events. We expect the median redshift of a lensed TDE to be between 1.5 and 2. In this paper, we additionally report on lensed TDE properties, such as the BH mass and time delays.

Automatic polyp segmentation has proven to be immensely helpful for endoscopy procedures, reducing the missing rate of adenoma detection for endoscopists while increasing efficiency. However, classifying a polyp as being neoplasm or not and segmenting it at the pixel level is still a challenging task for doctors to perform in a limited time. In this work, we propose a fine-grained formulation for the polyp segmentation problem. Our formulation aims to not only segment polyp regions, but also identify those at high risk of malignancy with high accuracy. In addition, we present a UNet-based neural network architecture called NeoUNet, along with a hybrid loss function to solve this problem. Experiments show highly competitive results for NeoUNet on our benchmark dataset compared to existing polyp segmentation models.

While data are the primary fuel for machine learning models, they often suffer from missing values, especially when collected in real-world scenarios. However, many off-the-shelf machine learning models, including artificial neural network models, are unable to handle these missing values directly. Therefore, extra data preprocessing and curation steps, such as data imputation, are inevitable before learning and prediction processes. In this study, we propose a simple and intuitive yet effective method for pruning missing values (PROMISSING) during learning and inference steps in neural networks. In this method, there is no need to remove or impute the missing values; instead, the missing values are treated as a new source of information (representing what we do not know). Our experiments on simulated data, several classification and regression benchmarks, and a multi-modal clinical dataset show that PROMISSING results in similar prediction performance compared to various imputation techniques. In addition, our experiments show models trained using PROMISSING techniques are becoming less decisive in their predictions when facing incomplete samples with many unknowns. This finding hopefully advances machine learning models from being pure predicting machines to more realistic thinkers that can also say "I do not know" when facing incomplete sources of information.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.