Daily Papers

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

Current autoregressive diffusion models excel at video generation but are generally limited to short temporal durations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that the autoregressive modeling typically suffers from temporal drift caused by error accumulation and hinders parallelization in long video synthesis. To address these limitations, we propose a novel planning-then-populating framework centered on Macro-from-Micro Planning (MMPL) for long video generation. MMPL sketches a global storyline for the entire video through two hierarchical stages: Micro Planning and Macro Planning. Specifically, Micro Planning predicts a sparse set of future keyframes within each short video segment, offering motion and appearance priors to guide high-quality video segment generation. Macro Planning extends the in-segment keyframes planning across the entire video through an autoregressive chain of micro plans, ensuring long-term consistency across video segments. Subsequently, MMPL-based Content Populating generates all intermediate frames in parallel across segments, enabling efficient parallelization of autoregressive generation. The parallelization is further optimized by Adaptive Workload Scheduling for balanced GPU execution and accelerated autoregressive video generation. Extensive experiments confirm that our method outperforms existing long video generation models in quality and stability. Generated videos and comparison results are in our project page.

The scaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) is increasingly limited by data quality. Most methods handle data mixing and sample selection separately, which can break the structure in code corpora. We introduce UniGeM, a framework that unifies mixing and selection by treating data curation as a manifold approximation problem without training proxy models or relying on external reference datasets. UniGeM operates hierarchically: Macro-Exploration learns mixing weights with stability-based clustering; Micro-Mining filters high-quality instances by their geometric distribution to ensure logical consistency. Validated by training 8B and 16B MoE models on 100B tokens, UniGeM achieves 2.0times data efficiency over a random baseline and further improves overall performance compared to SOTA methods in reasoning-heavy evaluations and multilingual generalization.

Recent advances in video generation have opened new avenues for macroscopic simulation of complex dynamic systems, but their application to microscopic phenomena remains largely unexplored. Microscale simulation holds great promise for biomedical applications such as drug discovery, organ-on-chip systems, and disease mechanism studies, while also showing potential in education and interactive visualization. In this work, we introduce MicroWorldBench, a multi-level rubric-based benchmark for microscale simulation tasks. MicroWorldBench enables systematic, rubric-based evaluation through 459 unique expert-annotated criteria spanning multiple microscale simulation task (e.g., organ-level processes, cellular dynamics, and subcellular molecular interactions) and evaluation dimensions (e.g., scientific fidelity, visual quality, instruction following). MicroWorldBench reveals that current SOTA video generation models fail in microscale simulation, showing violations of physical laws, temporal inconsistency, and misalignment with expert criteria. To address these limitations, we construct MicroSim-10K, a high-quality, expert-verified simulation dataset. Leveraging this dataset, we train MicroVerse, a video generation model tailored for microscale simulation. MicroVerse can accurately reproduce complex microscale mechanism. Our work first introduce the concept of Micro-World Simulation and present a proof of concept, paving the way for applications in biology, education, and scientific visualization. Our work demonstrates the potential of educational microscale simulations of biological mechanisms. Our data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/MicroVerse

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown strong reasoning and generalization capabilities, motivating their use as decision-making policies in complex environments. StarCraft II (SC2), with its massive state-action space and partial observability, is a challenging testbed. However, existing LLM-based SC2 agents primarily focus on improving the policy itself and overlook integrating a learnable, action-conditioned transition model into the decision loop. To bridge this gap, we propose StarWM, the first world model for SC2 that predicts future observations under partial observability. To facilitate learning SC2's hybrid dynamics, we introduce a structured textual representation that factorizes observations into five semantic modules, and construct SC2-Dynamics-50k, the first instruction-tuning dataset for SC2 dynamics prediction. We further develop a multi-dimensional offline evaluation framework for predicted structured observations. Offline results show StarWM's substantial gains over zero-shot baselines, including nearly 60% improvements in resource prediction accuracy and self-side macro-situation consistency. Finally, we propose StarWM-Agent, a world-model-augmented decision system that integrates StarWM into a Generate--Simulate--Refine decision loop for foresight-driven policy refinement. Online evaluation against SC2's built-in AI demonstrates consistent improvements, yielding win-rate gains of 30%, 15%, and 30% against Hard (LV5), Harder (LV6), and VeryHard (LV7), respectively, alongside improved macro-management stability and tactical risk assessment.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

We prove stability for a class of heterogeneous catalysis models in the L_p-setting. We consider a setting in a finite three-dimensional pore of cylinder-like geometry, with the lateral walls acting as a catalytic surface. Under a reasonable condition on the involved parameters, we show that given equilibria are normally stable, i.e. solutions are attracted at an exponential rate. The potential incidence of instability is discussed as well.

We present 3D DEM simulations of bidisperse granular packings to investigate their jamming densities, phi_J, and dimensionless bulk moduli, K, as a function of the size ratio, delta, and the concentration of small particles, X_{mathrm S}. We determine the partial and total bulk moduli for each packing and report the jamming transition diagram, i.e., the density or volume fraction marking both the first and second transitions of the system. At a large enough size difference, e.g., delta le 0.22, X^{*}_{mathrm S} divides the diagram with most small particles either non-jammed or jammed jointly with large ones. We find that the bulk modulus K jumps at X^{*}_{mathrm S}(delta = 0.15) approx 0.21, at the maximum jamming density, where both particle species mix most efficiently, while for X_{mathrm S} < X^{*}_{mathrm S} K is decoupled in two scenarios as a result of the first and second jamming transition. Along the second transition, K rises relative to the values found at the first transition, however, is still small compared to K at X^{*}_{mathrm S}. While the first transition is sharp, the second is smooth, carried by small-large interactions, while the small-small contacts display a transition. This demonstrates that for low enough delta and X_{mathrm S}, the jamming of small particles indeed impacts the internal resistance of the system. Our new results will allow tuning the bulk modulus K or other properties, such as the wave speed, by choosing specific sizes and concentrations based on a better understanding of whether small particles contribute to the jammed structure or not, and how the micromechanical structure behaves at either transition.

We investigate the time evolution of the Boltzmann entropy of a dilute gas of N particles, N>>1, as it undergoes a free expansion doubling its volume. The microstate of the system, a point in the 4N dimensional phase space, changes in time via Hamiltonian dynamics. Its entropy, at any time t, is given by the logarithm of the phase space volume of all the microstates giving rise to its macrostate at time t. The macrostates that we consider are defined by coarse graining the one-particle phase space into cells Δ_α. The initial and final macrostates of the system are equilibrium states in volumes V and 2V, with the same energy E and particle number N. Their entropy per particle is given, for sufficiently large systems, by the thermodynamic entropy as a function of the particle and energy density, whose leading term is independent of the size of the Δ_α. The intermediate (non-equilibrium) entropy does however depend on the size of the cells Δ_α. Its change with time is due to (i) dispersal in physical space from free motion and to (ii) the collisions between particles which change their velocities. The former depends strongly on the size of the velocity coarse graining Δv: it produces entropy at a rate proportional to Δv. This dependence is investigated numerically and analytically for a dilute two-dimensional gas of hard discs. It becomes significant when the mean free path between collisions is of the same order or larger than the length scale of the initial spatial inhomogeneity. In the opposite limit, the rate of entropy production is essentially independent of Δv and is given by the Boltzmann equation for the limit Δvrightarrow 0. We show that when both processes are active the time dependence of the entropy has a scaling form involving the ratio of the rates of its production by the two processes.

Differentiable matching layers and residual connection paradigms, often implemented via entropy-regularized Optimal Transport (OT), serve as critical mechanisms in structural prediction and architectural scaling. However, recovering discrete permutations or maintaining identity mappings via annealing εto 0 is notoriously unstable. In this work, we identify a fundamental mechanism for this failure: Premature Mode Collapse. By analyzing the non-normal dynamics of the Sinkhorn fixed-point map, we reveal a theoretical thermodynamic speed limit: standard exponential cooling outpaces the contraction rate of the inference operator, which degrades as O(1/ε). To address this, we propose Efficient Piecewise Hybrid Adaptive Stability Control (EPH-ASC), an adaptive scheduling algorithm that monitors the stability of the inference process. We demonstrate that EPH-ASC is essential for stabilizing Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) during large-scale training on the FineWeb-Edu dataset, effectively preventing late-stage gradient explosions by enforcing a linear stability law.

Analysis of learned representations has a blind spot: it focuses on similarity, measuring how closely embeddings align with external references, but similarity reveals only what is represented, not whether that structure is robust. We introduce geometric stability, a distinct dimension that quantifies how reliably representational geometry holds under perturbation, and present Shesha, a framework for measuring it. Across 2,463 configurations in seven domains, we show that stability and similarity are empirically uncorrelated (ρapprox 0.01) and mechanistically distinct: similarity metrics collapse after removing the top principal components, while stability retains sensitivity to fine-grained manifold structure. This distinction yields actionable insights: for safety monitoring, stability acts as a functional geometric canary, detecting structural drift nearly 2times more sensitively than CKA while filtering out the non-functional noise that triggers false alarms in rigid distance metrics; for controllability, supervised stability predicts linear steerability (ρ= 0.89-0.96); for model selection, stability dissociates from transferability, revealing a geometric tax that transfer optimization incurs. Beyond machine learning, stability predicts CRISPR perturbation coherence and neural-behavioral coupling. By quantifying how reliably systems maintain structure, geometric stability provides a necessary complement to similarity for auditing representations across biological and computational systems.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

Biological tissues exhibit complex behaviors with their dynamics often resembling inert soft matter such as liquids, polymers, colloids, and liquid crystals. These analogies enable physics-based approaches for investigations of emergent behaviors in biological processes. A well-studied case is the spreading of cellular aggregates on solid surfaces, where they display dynamics similar to viscous droplets. In vivo, however, cells and tissues are in a confined environment with varying geometries and mechanical properties to which they need to adapt. In this work, we compressed cellular aggregates between two solid surfaces and studied their dynamics using microscopy, and computer simulations. The confined cellular aggregates transitioned from compressed spheres into dynamic living capillary bridges exhibiting bridge thinning and a convex-to-concave meniscus curvature transition. We found that the stability of the bridge is determined by the interplay between cell growth and cell spreading on the confining surfaces. This interaction leads to bridge rupture at a critical length scale determined by the distance between the plates. The force distributions, formation and stability regimes of the living capillary bridges were characterized with full 3D computer simulations that included cell division, migration and growth dynamics, directly showing how mechanical principles govern the behavior of the living bridges; cellular aggregates display jamming and stiffening analogously to granular matter, and cell division along the long axis enhances thinning. Based on our results, we propose a new class of active soft matter behavior, where cellular aggregates exhibit liquid-like adaptation to confinement, but with self-organized rupturing driven by biological activity.

Training instability remains a critical challenge in large language model (LLM) pretraining, often manifesting as sudden gradient explosions that waste significant computational resources. We study training failures in a 5M-parameter NanoGPT model scaled via μP, identifying two key phenomena preceding collapse: (1) rapid decline in weight matrix stable rank (ratio of squared Frobenius norm to squared spectral norm), and (2) increasing alignment between adjacent layer Jacobians. We prove theoretically that these two conditions jointly cause exponential gradient norm growth with network depth. To break this instability mechanism, we propose MSign, a new optimizer that periodically applies matrix sign operations to restore stable rank. Experiments on models from 5M to 3B parameters demonstrate that MSign effectively prevents training failures with a computational overhead of less than 7.0%.

Individual chemically active drops suspended in a surfactant solution were observed to self-propel spontaneously with straight, helical, or chaotic trajectories. To elucidate how these drops can exhibit such strikingly different dynamics and `decide' what to do, we propose a minimal axisymmetric model of a spherical active drop, and show that simple and linear interface properties can lead to both steady self-propulsion of the droplet as well as chaotic behavior. The model includes two different mobility mechanisms, namely, diffusiophoresis and the Marangoni effect, that convert self-generated gradients of surfactant concentration into the flow at the droplet surface. In turn, surface-driven flow initiates surfactant advection that is the only nonlinear mechanism and, thus, the only source of dynamical complexity in our model. Numerical investigation of the fully-coupled hydrodynamic and advection diffusion problems reveals that strong advection (e.g., large droplet size) may destabilize a steadily self-propelling drop; once destabilized, the droplet spontaneously stops and a symmetric extensile flow emerges. If advection is strengthened even further in comparison with molecular diffusion, the droplet may perform chaotic oscillations. Our results indicate that the thresholds of these instabilities depend heavily on the balance between diffusiophoresis and the Marangoni effect. Using linear stability analysis, we demonstrate that diffusiophoresis promotes the onset of high-order modes of monotonic instability of the motionless drop. We argue that diffusiophoresis has a similar effect on the instabilities of a moving drop.

We present a bag of tricks framework for few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL), which is a challenging form of continual learning that involves continuous adaptation to new tasks with limited samples. FSCIL requires both stability and adaptability, i.e., preserving proficiency in previously learned tasks while learning new ones. Our proposed bag of tricks brings together eight key and highly influential techniques that improve stability, adaptability, and overall performance under a unified framework for FSCIL. We organize these tricks into three categories: stability tricks, adaptability tricks, and training tricks. Stability tricks aim to mitigate the forgetting of previously learned classes by enhancing the separation between the embeddings of learned classes and minimizing interference when learning new ones. On the other hand, adaptability tricks focus on the effective learning of new classes. Finally, training tricks improve the overall performance without compromising stability or adaptability. We perform extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets, CIFAR-100, CUB-200, and miniIMageNet, to evaluate the impact of our proposed framework. Our detailed analysis shows that our approach substantially improves both stability and adaptability, establishing a new state-of-the-art by outperforming prior works in the area. We believe our method provides a go-to solution and establishes a robust baseline for future research in this area.

Approximations based on moment-closure (MA) are commonly used to obtain estimates of the mean molecule numbers and of the variance of fluctuations in the number of molecules of chemical systems. The advantage of this approach is that it can be far less computationally expensive than exact stochastic simulations of the chemical master equation. Here we numerically study the conditions under which the MA equations yield results reflecting the true stochastic dynamics of the system. We show that for bistable and oscillatory chemical systems with deterministic initial conditions, the solution of the MA equations can be interpreted as a valid approximation to the true moments of the CME, only when the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation fall within a certain finite range. The same validity criterion for monostable systems implies that the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation must be above a certain threshold. For mean molecule numbers outside of this range of validity, the MA equations lead to either qualitatively wrong oscillatory dynamics or to unphysical predictions such as negative variances in the molecule numbers or multiple steady-state moments of the stationary distribution as the initial conditions are varied. Our results clarify the range of validity of the MA approach and show that pitfalls in the interpretation of the results can only be overcome through the systematic comparison of the solutions of the MA equations of a certain order with those of higher orders.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) stands as a cornerstone optimization algorithm with proven real-world empirical successes but relatively limited theoretical understanding. Recent research has illuminated a key factor contributing to its practical efficacy: the implicit regularization it instigates. Several studies have investigated the linear stability property of SGD in the vicinity of a stationary point as a predictive proxy for sharpness and generalization error in overparameterized neural networks (Wu et al., 2022; Jastrzebski et al., 2019; Cohen et al., 2021). In this paper, we delve deeper into the relationship between linear stability and sharpness. More specifically, we meticulously delineate the necessary and sufficient conditions for linear stability, contingent on hyperparameters of SGD and the sharpness at the optimum. Towards this end, we introduce a novel coherence measure of the loss Hessian that encapsulates pertinent geometric properties of the loss function that are relevant to the linear stability of SGD. It enables us to provide a simplified sufficient condition for identifying linear instability at an optimum. Notably, compared to previous works, our analysis relies on significantly milder assumptions and is applicable for a broader class of loss functions than known before, encompassing not only mean-squared error but also cross-entropy loss.

Offline-to-online reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a practical paradigm that leverages offline datasets for pretraining and online interactions for fine-tuning. However, its empirical behavior is highly inconsistent: design choices of online-fine tuning that work well in one setting can fail completely in another. We propose a stability--plasticity principle that can explain this inconsistency: we should preserve the knowledge of pretrained policy or offline dataset during online fine-tuning, whichever is better, while maintaining sufficient plasticity. This perspective identifies three regimes of online fine-tuning, each requiring distinct stability properties. We validate this framework through a large-scale empirical study, finding that the results strongly align with its predictions in 45 of 63 cases. This work provides a principled framework for guiding design choices in offline-to-online RL based on the relative performance of the offline dataset and the pretrained policy.

We present dla-ideal-solver, a high-performance framework for simulating two-dimensional Diffusion-Limited Aggregation (DLA) using Numba-accelerated Python. By leveraging just-in-time (JIT) compilation, we achieve computational throughput comparable to legacy static implementations while retaining high-level flexibility. We investigate the Laplacian growth instability across varying injection geometries and walker concentrations. Our analysis confirms the robustness of the standard fractal dimension D_f approx 1.71 for dilute regimes, consistent with the Witten-Sander universality class. However, we report a distinct crossover to Eden-like compact growth (D_f approx 1.87) in high-density environments, attributed to the saturation of the screening length. Beyond standard mass-radius scaling, we employ generalized Rényi dimensions and lacunarity metrics to quantify the monofractal character and spatial heterogeneity of the aggregates. This work establishes a reproducible, open-source testbed for exploring phase transitions in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics.

This study investigates the hydrodynamics of droplet formation in a T-shaped cylindrical microfluidic device using micro-PIV experiments and CFD simulations. Devices of 150 micro-m internal diameter were fabricated from PDMS via a cost-effective embedded templating method. Flow visualization was conducted using immiscible silicone oil and deionized water, forming water-in-oil droplets. A mathematical model coupling the Navier-Stokes and conservative level-set equations was solved using the finite element method. Detailed flow fields (velocity, pressure, and phase distribution) were obtained over a wide range of flow-rate ratios (0.1-10) and capillary numbers (0.001-0.1) to characterize droplet formation mechanisms. Phase evolution revealed distinct breakup stages (lag, filling, necking, and pinch-off) and multiple regimes (squeezing, dripping, sausage flow, and parallel flow with tip streaming). A regime map delineating droplet and non-droplet regions was developed. Droplet size, curvature, and internal flow profiles exhibited strong dependence on Ca and Qr. Scaling analysis showed linear dependence of droplet size on Qr in the squeezing regime, with curvature nearly independent of Qr. In contrast, both size and curvature followed power-law dependence on Ca and Qr in the dripping regime. Velocity fields inside droplets were laminar and parabolic in the core. Fully developed plug-like profiles appeared in squeezing, whereas front and rear regions remained developing in dripping. Correlations for droplet length, curvature, and film thickness, including a novel thin-film model incorporating visco-inertial and capillary effects, enable predictive design within the studied range. These findings advance fundamental understanding of confined droplet dynamics and provide quantitative guidelines for optimizing droplet-based microfluidic systems.