Daily Papers

Ensembles of independently trained neural networks are a state-of-the-art approach to estimate predictive uncertainty in Deep Learning, and can be interpreted as an approximation of the posterior distribution via a mixture of delta functions. The training of ensembles relies on non-convexity of the loss landscape and random initialization of their individual members, making the resulting posterior approximation uncontrolled. This paper proposes a novel and principled method to tackle this limitation, minimizing an f-divergence between the true posterior and a kernel density estimator (KDE) in a function space. We analyze this objective from a combinatorial point of view, and show that it is submodular with respect to mixture components for any f. Subsequently, we consider the problem of greedy ensemble construction. From the marginal gain on the negative f-divergence, which quantifies an improvement in posterior approximation yielded by adding a new component into the KDE, we derive a novel diversity term for ensemble methods. The performance of our approach is demonstrated on computer vision out-of-distribution detection benchmarks in a range of architectures trained on multiple datasets. The source code of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/greedy_ensembles_training.

Recent advances in AI-assisted programming have empowered agents to execute complex workflows via command-line interfaces, however, existing benchmarks are limited by short task horizons, data contamination from GitHub scraping, and a lack of fine-grained evaluation metrics, fail to rigorously evaluate the long-horizon planning and execution capabilities essential for realistic software engineering. To address these gaps, we introduce LongCLI-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate agentic capabilities across long-horizon, realistic tasks. We curated 20 high-quality, long-horizon tasks from over 1,000 computer science assignments and real-world workflows, covering four engineering categories: from scratch, feature addition, bug fixing, and refactoring. We propose a dual-set testing protocol for LongCLI-Bench, which measures requirement fulfillment (fail-to-pass) and regression avoidance (pass-to-pass), and incorporates step-level scoring to pinpoint execution failures. Extensive experiments reveal that even state-of-the-art agents achieve pass rates below 20% in LongCLI-Bench. Step-level analysis further indicates that the majority of tasks stall at less than 30% completion, highlighting that critical failures often occur in the early stages. Although self-correction offers marginal gains, human-agent collaboration through plan injection and interactive guidance yields significantly higher improvements. These results highlight that future research must emphasize the development of synergistic human-agent workflows alongside advances in agents' planning and execution capabilities to overcome key challenges in long-horizon task performance.

Spatial intelligence is crucial for vision--language models (VLMs) in the physical world, yet many benchmarks evaluate largely unconstrained scenes where models can exploit 2D shortcuts. We introduce SSI-Bench, a VQA benchmark for spatial reasoning on constrained manifolds, built from complex real-world 3D structures whose feasible configurations are tightly governed by geometric, topological, and physical constraints. SSI-Bench contains 1,000 ranking questions spanning geometric and topological reasoning and requiring a diverse repertoire of compositional spatial operations, such as mental rotation, cross-sectional inference, occlusion reasoning, and force-path reasoning. It is created via a fully human-centered pipeline: ten researchers spent over 400 hours curating images, annotating structural components, and designing questions to minimize pixel-level cues. Evaluating 31 widely used VLMs reveals a large gap to humans: the best open-source model achieves 22.2% accuracy and the strongest closed-source model reaches 33.6%, while humans score 91.6%. Encouraging models to think yields only marginal gains, and error analysis points to failures in structural grounding and constraint-consistent 3D reasoning. Project page: https://ssi-bench.github.io.

This study assesses deep learning models for audio classification in a clinical setting with the constraint of small datasets reflecting real-world prospective data collection. We analyze CNNs, including DenseNet and ConvNeXt, alongside transformer models like ViT, SWIN, and AST, and compare them against pre-trained audio models such as YAMNet and VGGish. Our method highlights the benefits of pre-training on large datasets before fine-tuning on specific clinical data. We prospectively collected two first-of-their-kind patient audio datasets from stroke patients. We investigated various preprocessing techniques, finding that RGB and grayscale spectrogram transformations affect model performance differently based on the priors they learn from pre-training. Our findings indicate CNNs can match or exceed transformer models in small dataset contexts, with DenseNet-Contrastive and AST models showing notable performance. This study highlights the significance of incremental marginal gains through model selection, pre-training, and preprocessing in sound classification; this offers valuable insights for clinical diagnostics that rely on audio classification.

In-context learning is a promising paradigm that utilizes in-context examples as prompts for the predictions of large language models. These prompts are crucial for achieving strong performance. However, since the prompts need to be sampled from a large volume of annotated examples, finding the right prompt may result in high annotation costs. To address this challenge, this paper introduces an influence-driven selective annotation method that aims to minimize annotation costs while improving the quality of in-context examples. The essence of our method is to select a pivotal subset from a large-scale unlabeled data pool to annotate for the subsequent sampling of prompts. Specifically, a directed graph is first constructed to represent unlabeled data. Afterward, the influence of candidate unlabeled subsets is quantified with a diffusion process. A simple yet effective greedy algorithm for unlabeled data selection is lastly introduced. It iteratively selects the data if it provides a maximum marginal gain with respect to quantified influence. Compared with previous efforts on selective annotations, our influence-driven method works in an end-to-end manner, avoids an intractable explicit balance between data diversity and representativeness, and enjoys theoretical support. Experiments confirm the superiority of the proposed method on various benchmarks, achieving better performance under lower time consumption during subset selection. The project page is available at https://skzhang1.github.io/IDEAL/.

LLM-based coding agents have shown strong performance on automated issue resolution benchmarks, yet existing evaluations largely focus on final task success, providing limited insight into how agents retrieve and use code context during problem solving. We introduce ContextBench, a process-oriented evaluation of context retrieval in coding agents. ContextBench consists of 1,136 issue-resolution tasks from 66 repositories across eight programming languages, each augmented with human-annotated gold contexts. We further implement an automated evaluation framework that tracks agent trajectories and measures context recall, precision, and efficiency throughout issue resolution. Using ContextBench, we evaluate four frontier LLMs and five coding agents. Our results show that sophisticated agent scaffolding yields only marginal gains in context retrieval ("The Bitter Lesson" of coding agents), LLMs consistently favor recall over precision, and substantial gaps exist between explored and utilized context. ContextBench augments existing end-to-end benchmarks with intermediate gold-context metrics that unbox the issue-resolution process. These contexts offer valuable intermediate signals for guiding LLM reasoning in software tasks.

Recent advances in the development of vision-language models (VLMs) are yielding remarkable success in recognizing visual semantic content, including impressive instances of compositional image understanding. Here, we introduce the novel task of Visual Data-Type Identification, a basic perceptual skill with implications for data curation (e.g., noisy data-removal from large datasets, domain-specific retrieval) and autonomous vision (e.g., distinguishing changing weather conditions from camera lens staining). We develop two datasets consisting of animal images altered across a diverse set of 27 visual data-types, spanning four broad categories. An extensive zero-shot evaluation of 39 VLMs, ranging from 100M to 80B parameters, shows a nuanced performance landscape. While VLMs are reasonably good at identifying certain stylistic data-types, such as cartoons and sketches, they struggle with simpler data-types arising from basic manipulations like image rotations or additive noise. Our findings reveal that (i) model scaling alone yields marginal gains for contrastively-trained models like CLIP, and (ii) there is a pronounced drop in performance for the largest auto-regressively trained VLMs like OpenFlamingo. This finding points to a blind spot in current frontier VLMs: they excel in recognizing semantic content but fail to acquire an understanding of visual data-types through scaling. By analyzing the pre-training distributions of these models and incorporating data-type information into the captions during fine-tuning, we achieve a significant enhancement in performance. By exploring this previously uncharted task, we aim to set the stage for further advancing VLMs to equip them with visual data-type understanding. Code and datasets are released at https://github.com/bethgelab/DataTypeIdentification.

Recent work has shown that small distilled language models are strong competitors to models that are orders of magnitude larger and slower in a wide range of information retrieval tasks. This has made distilled and dense models, due to latency constraints, the go-to choice for deployment in real-world retrieval applications. In this work, we question this practice by showing that the number of parameters and early query-document interaction play a significant role in the generalization ability of retrieval models. Our experiments show that increasing model size results in marginal gains on in-domain test sets, but much larger gains in new domains never seen during fine-tuning. Furthermore, we show that rerankers largely outperform dense ones of similar size in several tasks. Our largest reranker reaches the state of the art in 12 of the 18 datasets of the Benchmark-IR (BEIR) and surpasses the previous state of the art by 3 average points. Finally, we confirm that in-domain effectiveness is not a good indicator of zero-shot effectiveness. Code is available at https://github.com/guilhermemr04/scaling-zero-shot-retrieval.git

Does continued scaling of large language models (LLMs) yield diminishing returns? Real-world value often stems from the length of task an agent can complete. We start this work by observing the simple but counterintuitive fact that marginal gains in single-step accuracy can compound into exponential improvements in the length of a task a model can successfully complete. Then, we argue that failures of LLMs when simple tasks are made longer arise from mistakes in execution, rather than an inability to reason. We propose isolating execution capability, by explicitly providing the knowledge and plan needed to solve a long-horizon task. We find that larger models can correctly execute significantly more turns even when small models have 100\% single-turn accuracy. We observe that the per-step accuracy of models degrades as the number of steps increases. This is not just due to long-context limitations -- curiously, we observe a self-conditioning effect -- models become more likely to make mistakes when the context contains their errors from prior turns. Self-conditioning does not reduce by just scaling the model size. In contrast, recent thinking models do not self-condition, and can also execute much longer tasks in a single turn. We conclude by benchmarking frontier thinking models on the length of task they can execute in a single turn. Overall, by focusing on the ability to execute, we hope to reconcile debates on how LLMs can solve complex reasoning problems yet fail at simple tasks when made longer, and highlight the massive benefits of scaling model size and sequential test-time compute for long-horizon tasks.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) show strong capabilities in complex reasoning, yet their marginal gains on evidence-dependent factual questions are limited. We find this limitation is partially attributable to a reasoning-answer hit gap, where the model identifies the correct facts during reasoning but fails to incorporate them into the final response, thereby reducing factual fidelity. To address this issue, we propose MR-ALIGN, a Meta-Reasoning informed alignment framework that enhances factuality without relying on external verifiers. MR-ALIGN quantifies state transition probabilities along the model's thinking process and constructs a transition-aware implicit reward that reinforces beneficial reasoning patterns while suppressing defective ones at the atomic thinking segments. This re-weighting reshapes token-level signals into probability-aware segment scores, encouraging coherent reasoning trajectories that are more conducive to factual correctness. Empirical evaluations across four factual QA datasets and one long-form factuality benchmark show that MR-ALIGN consistently improves accuracy and truthfulness while reducing misleading reasoning. These results highlight that aligning the reasoning process itself, rather than merely the outputs, is pivotal for advancing factuality in LRMs.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning has enabled transformer-based language models to excel at complex mathematics and multi-step planning. However, in standard decoder-only architectures, these reasoning steps are externalized in natural language, improving interpretability at the cost of efficiency. To capture reasoning that is not easily represented in words, many works have explored recurrent architectures that aim to internalize reasoning in latent space, potentially supporting latent CoT. In this paper, we investigate whether such reasoning structures emerge in Huginn-3.5B, a depth-recurrent Transformer that reuses layers at inference time without increasing parameter count. We examine the model's internal behavior on arithmetic tasks using a suite of probing techniques including the Logit Lens and Coda Lens. Our findings reveal limited evidence of interpretable latent CoT by tracking rank trajectories of final and intermediate result tokens. Furthermore, we uncover significant probing inconsistencies across recurrent blocks, where the interpretability of hidden states depends heavily on both the layer index and the decoding method. Finally, we empirically show that increasing recurrence depth yields only marginal gains and falls well short of models that explicitly externalize reasoning steps. The code is available at https://github.com/wenquanlu/huginn-latent-cot.

Recent advances in inference-time scaling, particularly those leveraging reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards, have substantially enhanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs). Inspired by this success, similar strategies have been applied to multimodal reasoning, yet their impact on visual perception remains unclear. To investigate this gap, we introduce DisTANCE, a perception-centric benchmark for visual estimation tasks. Evaluation results show that LVLMs exhibit limited estimation precision, and inference-time scaling offers only marginal gains. We attribute this to the fast perception paradigm of current LVLMs, where visual understanding is treated as a one-shot output without modeling the underlying perceptual process. To address this, we propose Perception-Time Scaling (PTS), a novel paradigm that encourages token-rich perception and decomposes complex perception problems into intermediate tractable sub-problems, thereby enabling perception to align with and benefit from inference-time scaling. Combined with reinforcement learning techniques, PTS significantly improves perception accuracy, raising high-precision performance on DisTANCE from 8.0% to 64.7%, and generalizes well to out-of-domain tasks. Surprisingly, even though PTS data are purely synthetic, combining them with math reasoning data yields consistent gains in both reasoning and real-world perception benchmarks. Further analysis reveals that PTS introduces more perception-related tokens and increases the model's attention to image tokens. Our code and data will be publicly released.

We study question answering in the domain of radio regulations, a legally sensitive and high-stakes area. We propose a telecom-specific Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipeline and introduce, to our knowledge, the first multiple-choice evaluation set for this domain, constructed from authoritative sources using automated filtering and human validation. To assess retrieval quality, we define a domain-specific retrieval metric, under which our retriever achieves approximately 97% accuracy. Beyond retrieval, our approach consistently improves generation accuracy across all tested models. In particular, while naively inserting documents without structured retrieval yields only marginal gains for GPT-4o (less than 1%), applying our pipeline results in nearly a 12% relative improvement. These findings demonstrate that carefully targeted grounding provides a simple yet strong baseline and an effective domain-specific solution for regulatory question answering. All code and evaluation scripts, along with our derived question-answer dataset, are available at https://github.com/Zakaria010/Radio-RAG.

In this paper, we present a practical approach to improve anatomical shape accuracy in whole-body medical segmentation. Our analysis shows that a shape-focused toolkit can enhance segmentation performance by over 8%, without the need for model re-training or fine-tuning. In comparison, modifications to model architecture typically lead to marginal gains of less than 3%. Motivated by this observation, we introduce ShapeKit, a flexible and easy-to-integrate toolkit designed to refine anatomical shapes. This work highlights the underappreciated value of shape-based tools and calls attention to their potential impact within the medical segmentation community.

Current visual representation learning remains bifurcated: vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) excel at global semantic alignment but lack spatial precision, while self-supervised methods (e.g., MAE, DINO) capture intricate local structures yet struggle with high-level semantic context. We argue that these paradigms are fundamentally complementary and can be integrated into a principled multi-task framework, further enhanced by dense spatial supervision. We introduce MTV, a multi-task visual pretraining framework that jointly optimizes a shared backbone across vision-language contrastive, self-supervised, and dense spatial objectives. To mitigate the need for manual annotations, we leverage high-capacity "expert" models -- such as Depth Anything V2 and OWLv2 -- to synthesize dense, structured pseudo-labels at scale. Beyond the framework, we provide a systematic investigation into the mechanics of multi-task visual learning, analyzing: (i) the marginal gain of each objective, (ii) task synergies versus interference, and (iii) scaling behavior across varying data and model scales. Our results demonstrate that MTV achieves "best-of-both-worlds" performance, significantly enhancing fine-grained spatial reasoning without compromising global semantic understanding. Our findings suggest that multi-task learning, fueled by high-quality pseudo-supervision, is a scalable path toward more general visual encoders.

Effective collaboration begins with knowing when to ask for help. For example, when trying to identify an occluded object, a human would ask someone to remove the obstruction. Can MLLMs exhibit a similar "proactive" behavior by requesting simple user interventions? To investigate this, we introduce ProactiveBench, a benchmark built from seven repurposed datasets that tests proactiveness across different tasks such as recognizing occluded objects, enhancing image quality, and interpreting coarse sketches. We evaluate 22 MLLMs on ProactiveBench, showing that (i) they generally lack proactiveness; (ii) proactiveness does not correlate with model capacity; (iii) "hinting" at proactiveness yields only marginal gains. Surprisingly, we found that conversation histories and in-context learning introduce negative biases, hindering performance. Finally, we explore a simple fine-tuning strategy based on reinforcement learning: its results suggest that proactiveness can be learned, even generalizing to unseen scenarios. We publicly release ProactiveBench as a first step toward building proactive multimodal models.

Existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are predominantly trained and tested on consistent visual-textual inputs, leaving open the question of whether they can handle inconsistencies in real-world, layout-rich content. To bridge this gap, we propose the Multimodal Inconsistency Reasoning (MMIR) benchmark to assess MLLMs' ability to detect and reason about semantic mismatches in artifacts such as webpages, presentation slides, and posters. MMIR comprises 534 challenging samples, each containing synthetically injected errors across five reasoning-heavy categories: Factual Contradiction, Identity Misattribution, Contextual Mismatch, Quantitative Discrepancy, and Temporal/Spatial Incoherence. We evaluate six state-of-the-art MLLMs, showing that models with dedicated multimodal reasoning capabilities, such as o1, substantially outperform their counterparts while open-source models remain particularly vulnerable to inconsistency errors. Detailed error analyses further show that models excel in detecting inconsistencies confined to a single modality, particularly in text, but struggle with cross-modal conflicts and complex layouts. Probing experiments reveal that single-modality prompting, including Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and Set-of-Mark (SoM) methods, yields marginal gains, revealing a key bottleneck in cross-modal reasoning. Our findings highlight the need for advanced multimodal reasoning and point to future research on multimodal inconsistency.

A critical component in the trustworthiness of LLMs is reliable uncertainty communication, yet LLMs often use assertive language when conveying false claims, leading to over-reliance and eroded trust. We present the first systematic study of faithful confidence calibration of LLMs, benchmarking models' ability to use linguistic expressions of uncertainty that faithfully reflect their intrinsic uncertainty, across a comprehensive array of models, datasets, and prompting strategies. Our results demonstrate that LLMs largely fail at this task, and that existing interventions are insufficient: standard prompt approaches provide only marginal gains, and existing, factuality-based calibration techniques can even harm faithful calibration. To address this critical gap, we introduce MetaFaith, a novel prompt-based calibration approach inspired by human metacognition. We show that MetaFaith robustly improves faithful calibration across diverse models and task domains, enabling up to 61% improvement in faithfulness and achieving an 83% win rate over original generations as judged by humans.

Scaling up data, parameters, and test-time computation has been the mainstream methods to improve LLM systems (LLMsys), but their upper bounds are almost reached due to the gradual depletion of high-quality data and marginal gains obtained from larger computational resource consumption. Inspired by the abilities of human and traditional AI systems in learning from practice, constructing memory and continual learning frameworks for LLMsys has become an important and popular research direction in recent literature. Yet, existing benchmarks for LLM memory often focus on evaluating the system on homogeneous reading comprehension tasks with long-form inputs rather than testing their abilities to learn from accumulated user feedback in service time. Therefore, we propose a user feedback simulation framework and a comprehensive benchmark covering multiple domains, languages, and types of tasks to evaluate the continual learning abilities of LLMsys. Experiments show that the effectiveness and efficiency of state-of-the-art baselines are far from satisfying, and we hope this benchmark could pave the way for future studies on LLM memory and optimization algorithms.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in complex reasoning tasks through both post-training and test-time scaling laws. While prevalent test-time scaling approaches are often realized by using external reward models to guide the model generation process, we find only marginal gains can be acquired when scaling a model post-trained on specific reasoning tasks. We identify that the limited improvement stems from distribution discrepancies between the specific post-trained generator and the general reward model. To address this, we propose a framework that incentivizes LLMs to self-verify their own answers. By unifying answer generation and verification within a single reinforcement learning (RL) process, we train models that can effectively assess the correctness of their own solutions. The trained model can further scale its performance during inference time by verifying its generations, without the need for external verifiers. We train our self-verification models based on Qwen2.5-Math-7B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, demonstrating its capabilities across varying reasoning context lengths. Experiments on multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that our models can not only improve post-training performance but also enable effective test-time scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/mansicer/self-verification.

Residual connections are central to modern deep neural networks, enabling stable optimization and efficient information flow across depth. In this work, we propose SCORE (Skip-Connection ODE Recurrent Embedding), a discrete recurrent alternative to classical layer stacking. Instead of composing multiple independent layers, SCORE iteratively applies a single shared neural block using an ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation)-inspired contractive update: ht+1 = (1 - dt) * ht + dt * F(ht) This formulation can be interpreted as a depth-by-iteration refinement process, where the step size dt explicitly controls stability and update magnitude. Unlike continuous Neural ODE approaches, SCORE uses a fixed number of discrete iterations and standard backpropagation without requiring ODE solvers or adjoint methods. We evaluate SCORE across graph neural networks (ESOL molecular solubility), multilayer perceptrons, and Transformer-based language models (nanoGPT). Across architectures, SCORE generally improves convergence speed and often accelerates training. SCORE is reducing parameter count through shared weights. In practice, simple Euler integration provides the best trade-off between computational cost and performance, while higher-order integrators yield marginal gains at increased compute. These results suggest that controlled recurrent depth with contractive residual updates offers a lightweight and effective alternative to classical stacking in deep neural networks.

Protein language models (PLMs) have advanced computational protein science through large-scale pretraining and scalable architectures. In parallel, reinforcement learning (RL) has broadened exploration and enabled precise multi-objective optimization in protein design. Yet whether RL can push PLMs beyond their pretraining priors to uncover latent sequence-structure-function rules remains unclear. We address this by pairing RL with PLMs across four domains: antimicrobial peptide design, kinase variant optimization, antibody engineering, and inverse folding. Using diverse RL algorithms and model classes, we ask if RL improves sampling efficiency and, more importantly, if it reveals capabilities not captured by supervised learning. Across benchmarks, RL consistently boosts success rates and sample efficiency. Performance follows a three-factor interaction: task headroom, reward fidelity, and policy capacity jointly determine gains. When rewards are accurate and informative, policies have sufficient capacity, and tasks leave room beyond supervised baselines, improvements scale; when rewards are noisy or capacity is constrained, gains saturate despite exploration. This view yields practical guidance for RL in protein design: prioritize reward modeling and calibration before scaling policy size, match algorithm and regularization strength to task difficulty, and allocate capacity where marginal gains are largest. Implementation is available at https://github.com/chq1155/RL-PLM.

Balancing cost and performance is crucial when choosing high- versus low-resolution point-cloud roadside sensors. For example, LiDAR delivers dense point cloud, while 4D millimeter-wave radar, though spatially sparser, embeds velocity cues that help distinguish objects and come at a lower price. Unfortunately, the sensor placement strategies will influence point cloud density and distribution across the coverage area. Compounding the first challenge is the fact that different sensor mixtures often demand distinct neural network architectures to maximize their complementary strengths. Without an evaluation framework that establishes a benchmark for comparison, it is imprudent to make claims regarding whether marginal gains result from higher resolution and new sensing modalities or from the algorithms. We present an ex-ante evaluation that addresses the two challenges. First, we realized a simulation tool that builds on integer programming to automatically compare different sensor placement strategies against coverage and cost jointly. Additionally, inspired by human multi-sensory integration, we propose a modular framework to assess whether reductions in spatial resolution can be compensated by informational richness in detecting traffic participants. Extensive experimental testing on the proposed framework shows that fusing velocity-encoded radar with low-resolution LiDAR yields marked gains (14 percent AP for pedestrians and an overall mAP improvement of 1.5 percent across six categories) at lower cost than high-resolution LiDAR alone. Notably, these marked gains hold regardless of the specific deep neural modules employed in our frame. The result challenges the prevailing assumption that high resolution are always superior to low-resolution alternatives.

We describe our team's contribution to the STRICT-SMALL track of the BabyLM Challenge. The challenge requires training a language model from scratch using only a relatively small training dataset of ten million words. We experiment with three variants of cognitively-motivated curriculum learning and analyze their effect on the performance of the model on linguistic evaluation tasks. In the vocabulary curriculum, we analyze methods for constraining the vocabulary in the early stages of training to simulate cognitively more plausible learning curves. In the data curriculum experiments, we vary the order of the training instances based on i) infant-inspired expectations and ii) the learning behavior of the model. In the objective curriculum, we explore different variations of combining the conventional masked language modeling task with a more coarse-grained word class prediction task to reinforce linguistic generalization capabilities. Our results did not yield consistent improvements over our own non-curriculum learning baseline across a range of linguistic benchmarks; however, we do find marginal gains on select tasks. Our analysis highlights key takeaways for specific combinations of tasks and settings which benefit from our proposed curricula. We moreover determine that careful selection of model architecture, and training hyper-parameters yield substantial improvements over the default baselines provided by the BabyLM challenge.

In reinforcement learning (RL), rewards of states are typically considered additive, and following the Markov assumption, they are independent of states visited previously. In many important applications, such as coverage control, experiment design and informative path planning, rewards naturally have diminishing returns, i.e., their value decreases in light of similar states visited previously. To tackle this, we propose submodular RL (SubRL), a paradigm which seeks to optimize more general, non-additive (and history-dependent) rewards modelled via submodular set functions which capture diminishing returns. Unfortunately, in general, even in tabular settings, we show that the resulting optimization problem is hard to approximate. On the other hand, motivated by the success of greedy algorithms in classical submodular optimization, we propose SubPO, a simple policy gradient-based algorithm for SubRL that handles non-additive rewards by greedily maximizing marginal gains. Indeed, under some assumptions on the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP), SubPO recovers optimal constant factor approximations of submodular bandits. Moreover, we derive a natural policy gradient approach for locally optimizing SubRL instances even in large state- and action- spaces. We showcase the versatility of our approach by applying SubPO to several applications, such as biodiversity monitoring, Bayesian experiment design, informative path planning, and coverage maximization. Our results demonstrate sample efficiency, as well as scalability to high-dimensional state-action spaces.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities across diverse tasks. However, their deployment in long context scenarios remains hindered by computational inefficiency and information redundancy. Context compression methods address these challenges by significantly reducing input length and eliminating redundancy. We propose COMI, a coarse-to-fine adaptive context compression framework that jointly optimizes for semantic relevance and diversity under high compression rates. We introduce Marginal Information Gain (MIG), a metric defined as the relevance of a unit to the input query minus its semantic redundancy with other units, guiding the compression process to prioritize information that is both relevant and low redundant. The framework operates in two stages: (1) Coarse-Grained Group Reallocation, where the context is partitioned into groups and dynamically assigned compression rates based on inter-group MIG, ensuring compression budgets align with information value distribution; and (2) Fine-Grained Token Merging, where tokens within each group are fused via an intra-group MIG-based weighting mechanism, thereby preserving key semantics while avoiding the accumulation of redundancy. Extensive experiments across question-answering (e.g., NaturalQuestions, 2WikiMQA, HotpotQA and NarrativeQA), summarization (e.g., MultiNews) with various backbones (e.g., LLaMA-2-7B, Qwen2-7B) show that COMI outperforms existing baselines by a large margin, e.g., approximately 25-point Exact Match (EM) improvement under 32x compression constraint with Qwen2-7B on NaturalQuestions.

Manual peripheral blood smear (PBS) analysis is labor intensive and subjective. While deep learning offers a promising alternative, a systematic evaluation of state of the art models such as YOLOv11 for fine grained PBS detection is still lacking. In this work, we make two key contributions. First, we curate a large scale annotated dataset for blood cell detection and classification, comprising 16,891 images across 12 peripheral blood cell (PBC) classes, along with the red blood cell class, all carefully re annotated for object detection tasks. In total, the dataset contains 298,850 annotated cells. Second, we leverage this dataset to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of five YOLOv11 variants (ranging from Nano to XLarge). These models are rigorously benchmarked under two data splitting strategies (70:20:10 and 80:10:10) and systematically assessed using multiple performance criteria, including mean Average Precision (mAP), precision, recall, F1 score, and computational efficiency. Our experiments show that the YOLOv11 Medium variant achieves the best trade off, reaching a mAP@0.5 of 0.934 under the 8:1:1 split. Larger models (Large and XLarge) provide only marginal accuracy gains at substantially higher computational cost. Moreover, the 8:1:1 split consistently outperforms the 7:2:1 split across all models. These findings highlight YOLOv11, particularly the Medium variant, as a highly effective framework for automated, fine grained PBS detection. Beyond benchmarking, our publicly released dataset (github.com/Mohamad-AbouAli/OI-PBC-Dataset) offers a valuable resource to advance research on blood cell detection and classification in hematology.

Large language models have demonstrated remarkable progress in mathematical reasoning, leveraging chain-of-thought and test-time compute scaling. However, many open questions remain regarding the interplay between reasoning token usage and accuracy gains. In particular, when comparing models across generations, it is unclear whether improved performance results from longer reasoning chains or more efficient reasoning. We systematically analyze chain-of-thought length across o1-mini and o3-mini variants on the Omni-MATH benchmark, finding that o3-mini (m) achieves superior accuracy without requiring longer reasoning chains than o1-mini. Moreover, we show that accuracy generally declines as reasoning chains grow across all models and compute settings, even when controlling for difficulty of the questions. This accuracy drop is significantly smaller in more proficient models, suggesting that new generations of reasoning models use test-time compute more effectively. Finally, we highlight that while o3-mini (h) achieves a marginal accuracy gain over o3-mini (m), it does so by allocating substantially more reasoning tokens across all problems, even the ones that o3-mini (m) can already solve. These findings provide new insights into the relationship between model capability and reasoning length, with implications for efficiency, scaling, and evaluation methodologies.

External memory systems are pivotal for enabling Large Language Model (LLM) agents to maintain persistent knowledge and perform long-horizon decision-making. Existing paradigms typically follow a two-stage process: computationally expensive memory construction (e.g., structuring data into graphs) followed by naive retrieval-augmented generation. However, our empirical analysis reveals two fundamental limitations: complex construction incurs high costs with marginal performance gains, and simple context concatenation fails to bridge the gap between retrieval recall and reasoning accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose CoM (Chain-of-Memory), a novel framework that advocates for a paradigm shift toward lightweight construction paired with sophisticated utilization. CoM introduces a Chain-of-Memory mechanism that organizes retrieved fragments into coherent inference paths through dynamic evolution, utilizing adaptive truncation to prune irrelevant noise. Extensive experiments on the LongMemEval and LoCoMo benchmarks demonstrate that CoM outperforms strong baselines with accuracy gains of 7.5%-10.4%, while drastically reducing computational overhead to approximately 2.7% of token consumption and 6.0% of latency compared to complex memory architectures.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) serves as a potent paradigm for enhancing reasoning capabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet standard outcome-based approaches often suffer from reward sparsity and inefficient credit assignment. In this paper, we propose a novel framework designed to provide continuous reward signals, which introduces a Step-wise Marginal Information Gain (MIG) mechanism that quantifies the intrinsic value of reasoning steps against a Monotonic Historical Watermark, effectively filtering out training noise. To ensure disentangled credit distribution, we implement a Decoupled Masking Strategy, applying process-oriented rewards specifically to the chain-of-thought (CoT) and outcome-oriented rewards to the full completion. Additionally, we incorporate a Dual-Gated SFT objective to stabilize training with high-quality structural and factual signals. Extensive experiments across textual and multi-modal benchmarks (e.g., MATH, Super-CLEVR) demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms baselines such as GRPO in both sample efficiency and final accuracy. Furthermore, our model exhibits superior out-of-distribution robustness, demonstrating promising zero-shot transfer capabilities to unseen and challenging reasoning tasks.

Inference with Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) is slow due to their large-language-model backbone which suffers from memory bandwidth bottleneck and generates tokens auto-regressively. In this paper, we explore the application of speculative decoding to enhance the inference efficiency of MLLMs, specifically the LLaVA 7B model. We show that a language-only model can serve as a good draft model for speculative decoding with LLaVA 7B, bypassing the need for image tokens and their associated processing components from the draft model. Our experiments across three different tasks show that speculative decoding can achieve a memory-bound speedup of up to 2.37times using a 115M parameter language model that we trained from scratch. Additionally, we introduce a compact LLaVA draft model incorporating an image adapter, which shows marginal performance gains in image captioning while maintaining comparable results in other tasks.

The widespread adoption of AI systems in the economy hinges on their ability to generate economic value that outweighs their inference costs. Evaluating this tradeoff requires metrics that account for both performance and costs. We propose a framework grounded in production theory for evaluating language models by combining accuracy and inference cost. We introduce "cost-of-pass", the expected monetary cost of generating a correct solution. We then define the "frontier cost-of-pass" as the minimum cost-of-pass achievable across available models or the "human-expert, using the approximate cost of hiring an expert. Our analysis reveals distinct economic insights. First, lightweight models are most cost-effective for basic quantitative tasks, large models for knowledge-intensive ones, and reasoning models for complex quantitative problems, despite higher per-token costs. Second, tracking this frontier cost-of-pass over the past year reveals significant progress, particularly for complex quantitative tasks where the cost has roughly halved every few months. Third, to trace key innovations driving this progress, we examine counterfactual frontiers: estimates of cost-efficiency without specific model classes. We find that innovations in lightweight, large, and reasoning models have been essential for pushing the frontier in basic quantitative, knowledge-intensive, and complex quantitative tasks, respectively. Finally, we assess the cost-reductions afforded by common inference-time techniques like majority voting and self-refinement, finding that their marginal accuracy gains rarely justify their costs. Our findings underscore that complementary model-level innovations are the primary drivers of cost-efficiency, and our economic framework provides a principled tool for measuring this progress and guiding deployment.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have been driven by test-time compute scaling - a strategy that improves reasoning by generating longer, sequential thought processes. While effective, this approach encounters a significant bottleneck as computation increases, where further computation offers only marginal performance gains. We argue this ceiling is not an inherent limit of the model's capability but a flaw in the scaling strategy itself, a phenomenon we term "Tunnel Vision", where a model's imperfect initial steps lock it into a suboptimal reasoning path. To overcome this, we introduce a new scaling paradigm: native thought parallelism. We present ParaThinker, an end-to-end framework that trains an LLM to generate multiple, diverse reasoning paths in parallel and synthesize them into a superior final answer. By exploring different lines of thoughts simultaneously, ParaThinker effectively sidesteps the Tunnel Vision issue and unlocks the model's latent reasoning potential. Our approach demonstrates that scaling compute in parallel (width) is a more effective and efficient way to superior reasoning than simply scaling sequentially (depth). On challenging reasoning benchmarks, ParaThinker achieves substantial accuracy improvements over sequential LLMs (12.3% for 1.5B and 7.5% for 7B models on average with 8 parallel paths), while adding only negligible latency overhead (7.1%). This enables smaller models to surpass much larger counterparts and establishes parallel thinking as a critical, efficient dimension for scaling future LLMs.

Effective decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for handling intricate tasks. However, existing approaches prioritize performance but often overlook the balance between effectiveness and computational cost. To address this, we first introduce the 3E Criteria to systematically assess the cost-effectiveness of search strategies, revealing that existing methods often trade significant efficiency for marginal performance gains. To improve LLM decision-making while maintaining efficiency, we propose the Speculative Reward Model (SRM), a plug-and-play framework that seamlessly integrates with existing search strategies. Specifically, SRM employs an external reward assigner to predict optimal actions, reducing reliance on LLMs' internal self-evaluation. And a speculative verification mechanism is used to prune suboptimal choices and guide the search toward more promising steps. We evaluate SRM on several complex decision-making tasks including mathematical reasoning, planning and numerical reasoning in specialized domains. Experimental results show that SRM reduces costs to 1/10 of the original search framework on average while maintaining effectiveness.

Training critiquing language models to assess and provide feedback on model outputs is a promising way to improve LLMs for complex reasoning tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on stronger supervisors for annotating critique data. To address this, we propose Critique-RL, an online RL approach for developing critiquing language models without stronger supervision. Our approach operates on a two-player paradigm: the actor generates a response, the critic provides feedback, and the actor refines the response accordingly. We first reveal that relying solely on indirect reward signals from the actor's outputs for RL optimization often leads to unsatisfactory critics: while their helpfulness (i.e., providing constructive feedback) improves, the discriminability (i.e., determining whether a response is high-quality or not) remains poor, resulting in marginal performance gains. To overcome this, Critique-RL adopts a two-stage optimization strategy. In stage I, it reinforces the discriminability of the critic with direct rule-based reward signals; in stage II, it introduces indirect rewards based on actor refinement to improve the critic's helpfulness, while maintaining its discriminability via appropriate regularization. Extensive experiments across various tasks and models show that Critique-RL delivers substantial performance improvements. For example, it achieves a 9.02% gain on in-domain tasks and a 5.70% gain on out-of-domain tasks for Qwen2.5-7B, highlighting its potential.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly trained with reinforcement learning (RL) to enhance their ability to interact with external environments through tool use, particularly in search-based settings that require multi-turn reasoning and knowledge acquisition. However, existing approaches typically rely on outcome-based rewards that are only provided at the final answer. This reward sparsity becomes particularly problematic in multi-turn settings, where long trajectories exacerbate two critical issues: (i) advantage collapse, where all rollouts receive identical rewards and provide no useful learning signals, and (ii) lack of fine-grained credit assignment, where dependencies between turns are obscured, especially in long-horizon tasks. In this paper, we propose Information Gain-based Policy Optimization (IGPO), a simple yet effective RL framework that provides dense and intrinsic supervision for multi-turn agent training. IGPO models each interaction turn as an incremental process of acquiring information about the ground truth, and defines turn-level rewards as the marginal increase in the policy's probability of producing the correct answer. Unlike prior process-level reward approaches that depend on external reward models or costly Monte Carlo estimation, IGPO derives intrinsic rewards directly from the model's own belief updates. These intrinsic turn-level rewards are combined with outcome-level supervision to form dense reward trajectories. Extensive experiments on both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks demonstrate that IGPO consistently outperforms strong baselines in multi-turn scenarios, achieving higher accuracy and improved sample efficiency.

Statistical whitening transformations play a fundamental role in many computational systems, and may also play an important role in biological sensory systems. Existing neural circuit models of adaptive whitening operate by modifying synaptic interactions; however, such modifications would seem both too slow and insufficiently reversible. Motivated by the extensive neuroscience literature on gain modulation, we propose an alternative model that adaptively whitens its responses by modulating the gains of individual neurons. Starting from a novel whitening objective, we derive an online algorithm that whitens its outputs by adjusting the marginal variances of an overcomplete set of projections. We map the algorithm onto a recurrent neural network with fixed synaptic weights and gain-modulating interneurons. We demonstrate numerically that sign-constraining the gains improves robustness of the network to ill-conditioned inputs, and a generalization of the circuit achieves a form of local whitening in convolutional populations, such as those found throughout the visual or auditory systems.

Learning from preference feedback has emerged as an essential step for improving the generation quality and performance of modern language models (LMs). Despite its widespread use, the way preference-based learning is applied varies wildly, with differing data, learning algorithms, and evaluations used, making disentangling the impact of each aspect difficult. In this work, we identify four core aspects of preference-based learning: preference data, learning algorithm, reward model, and policy training prompts, systematically investigate the impact of these components on downstream model performance, and suggest a recipe for strong learning for preference feedback. Our findings indicate that all aspects are important for performance, with better preference data leading to the largest improvements, followed by the choice of learning algorithm, the use of improved reward models, and finally the use of additional unlabeled prompts for policy training. Notably, PPO outperforms DPO by up to 2.5% in math and 1.2% in general domains. High-quality preference data leads to improvements of up to 8% in instruction following and truthfulness. Despite significant gains of up to 5% in mathematical evaluation when scaling up reward models, we surprisingly observe marginal improvements in other categories. We publicly release the code used for training (https://github.com/hamishivi/EasyLM) and evaluating (https://github.com/allenai/open-instruct) our models, along with the models and datasets themselves (https://huggingface.co/collections/allenai/tulu-v25-suite-66676520fd578080e126f618).

Text-to-SQL demands precise reasoning to convert natural language questions into structured queries. While large language models (LLMs) excel in many reasoning tasks, their ability to leverage Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning for text-to-SQL remains underexplored. We identify critical limitations: zero-shot CoT offers minimal gains, and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) applied without CoT yields marginal improvements. We propose ExCoT, a novel framework that iteratively optimizes open-source LLMs by combining CoT reasoning with off-policy and on-policy DPO, relying solely on execution accuracy as feedback. This approach eliminates the need for reward models or human-annotated preferences. Our experimental results demonstrate significant performance gains: ExCoT improves execution accuracy on BIRD dev set from 57.37% to 68.51% and on Spider test set from 78.81% to 86.59% for LLaMA-3 70B, with Qwen-2.5-Coder demonstrating similar improvements. Our best model achieves state-of-the-art performance in the single-model setting on both BIRD and Spider datasets, notably achieving 68.53% on the BIRD test set.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has advanced the reasoning capability of large language models (LLMs), enabling autonomous agents that can conduct effective multi-turn and tool-integrated reasoning. While instructions serve as the primary protocol for defining agents, RLVR typically relies on static and manually designed instructions. However, those instructions may be suboptimal for the base model, and the optimal instruction may change as the agent's policy improves and explores the interaction with the environment. To bridge the gap, we introduce INSPO, a novel Instruction-Policy co-evolution framework that integrates instruction optimization as a dynamic component of the reinforcement learning (RL) loop. INSPO maintains a dynamic population of instruction candidates that are sampled with questions, where reward signals in RL loops are automatically attributed to each instruction, and low performers are periodically pruned. New instructions are generated and verified through an on-policy reflection mechanism, where an LLM-based optimizer analyzes past experience from a replay buffer and evolves more effective strategies given the current policy. We conduct extensive experiments on multi-turn retrieval and reasoning tasks, demonstrating that INSPO substantially outperforms strong baselines relying on static instructions. INSPO discovers innovative instructions that guide the agent toward more strategic reasoning paths, achieving substantial performance gains with only a marginal increase in computational overhead.

Vision-language models (VLMs) often struggle with geometric reasoning due to their limited perception of fundamental diagram elements. To tackle this challenge, we introduce GeoPerceive, a benchmark comprising diagram instances paired with domain-specific language (DSL) representations, along with an efficient automatic data generation pipeline. This design enables the isolated evaluation of geometric perception independently from reasoning. To exploit the data provided by GeoPerceive for enhancing the geometric perception capabilities of VLMs, we propose GeoDPO, a translator-guided reinforcement learning (RL) framework. GeoDPO employs an NL-to-DSL translator, which is trained on synthetic pairs generated by the data engine of GeoPerceive, to bridge natural language and DSL. This translator facilitates the computation of fine-grained, DSL-level scores, which serve as reward signals in reinforcement learning. We assess GeoDPO on both in-domain and out-of-domain datasets, spanning tasks in geometric perception as well as downstream reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that, while supervised fine-tuning (SFT) offers only marginal improvements and may even impair performance in out-of-domain scenarios, GeoDPO achieves substantial gains: +26.5% on in-domain data, +8.0% on out-of-domain data, and +39.0% on downstream reasoning tasks. These findings underscore the superior performance and generalization ability of GeoDPO over SFT. All codes are released at https://github.com/Longin-Yu/GeoPerceive to ensure reproducibility.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a key technique for compressing large language models into smaller ones while preserving performance. Despite the recent traction of KD research, its effectiveness for smaller language models (LMs) and the mechanisms driving knowledge transfer remain underexplored. In this work, we present the first large-scale empirical and statistical analysis of KD across models ranging from 0.5B to 7B parameters on 14 complex reasoning tasks in a zero-shot setting. Our findings reveal that KD can improve the average performance of smaller models by up to 10%, with a peak task specific gain of 22%, while providing only marginal benefits (sim 1.3%) for larger models. Surprisingly, teacher performance has a minimal impact on student outcomes, while teacher task expertise impacts KD effectiveness. A correlation study indicates that smaller LMs benefit more from KD, whereas larger LMs show diminished gains. Additionally, we uncover a misalignment between improvements in student performance and reasoning fidelity, suggesting that while KD enhances accuracy, it does not always maintain the structured decision-making processes of the teacher. Our ablation study further highlights the importance of teacher signals and logit smoothing in influencing students' performance after distillation. Overall, our study offers a comprehensive empirical and statistical assessment of KD, highlighting both its benefits and trade-offs when distilling knowledge from larger to smaller LMs.

Improving embodied reasoning in multimodal-large-language models (MLLMs) is essential for building vision-language-action models (VLAs) on top of them to readily translate multimodal understanding into low-level actions. Accordingly, recent work has explored enhancing embodied reasoning in MLLMs through supervision of vision-question-answering type. However, these approaches have been reported to result in unstable VLA performance, often yielding only marginal or even negative gains. In this paper, we propose a more systematic MLLM training framework RoboAlign that reliably improves VLA performance. Our key idea is to sample action tokens via zero-shot natural language reasoning and refines this reasoning using reinforcement learning (RL) to improve action accuracy. As a result, RoboAlign bridges the modality gap between language and low-level actions in MLLMs, and facilitate knowledge transfer from MLLM to VLA. To validate the effectiveness of RoboAlign, we train VLAs by adding a diffusion-based action head on top of an MLLM backbone and evaluate them on major robotics benchmarks. Remarkably, by performing RL-based alignment after SFT using less than 1\% of the data, RoboAlign achieves performance improvements of 17.5\%, 18.9\%, and 106.6\% over SFT baselines on LIBERO, CALVIN, and real-world environments, respectively.

Dataset distillation seeks to synthesize a highly compact dataset that achieves performance comparable to the original dataset on downstream tasks. For the classification task that use pre-trained self-supervised models as backbones, previous linear gradient matching optimizes synthetic images by encouraging them to mimic the gradient updates induced by real images on the linear classifier. However, this batch-level formulation requires loading thousands of real images and applying multiple rounds of differentiable augmentations to synthetic images at each distillation step, leading to substantial computational and memory overhead. In this paper, we introduce statistical flow matching , a stable and efficient supervised learning framework that optimizes synthetic images by aligning constant statistical flows from target class centers to non-target class centers in the original data. Our approach loads raw statistics only once and performs a single augmentation pass on the synthetic data, achieving performance comparable to or better than the state-of-the-art methods with 10x lower GPU memory usage and 4x shorter runtime. Furthermore, we propose a classifier inheritance strategy that reuses the classifier trained on the original dataset for inference, requiring only an extremely lightweight linear projector and marginal storage while achieving substantial performance gains.

Information-based data selection for instruction tuning is compelling: maximizing the log-determinant of the Fisher information yields a monotone submodular objective, enabling greedy algorithms to achieve a (1-1/e) approximation under a cardinality budget. In practice, however, we identify alleviating gradient conflicts, misalignment between per-sample gradients, is a key factor that slows down the decay of marginal log-determinant information gains, thereby preventing significant loss of information. We formalize this via an varepsilon-decomposition that quantifies the deviation from ideal submodularity as a function of conflict statistics, yielding data-dependent approximation factors that tighten as conflicts diminish. Guided by this analysis, we propose SPICE, a conflict-aware selector that maximizes information while penalizing misalignment, and that supports early stopping and proxy models for efficiency. Empirically, SPICE selects subsets with higher log-determinant information than original criteria, and these informational gains translate into performance improvements: across 8 benchmarks with LLaMA2-7B and Qwen2-7B, SPICE uses only 10% of the data, yet matches or exceeds 6 methods including full-data tuning. This achieves performance improvements with substantially lower training cost.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bias where some individuals/subgroups can be worse off than under simply optimizing for accuracy. For instance, a classifier implementing race-based parity may significantly disadvantage women of the advantaged race. To quantify this bias, we propose a general notion of eta-infra-marginality that can be used to evaluate the extent of this bias. We prove theoretically that, unlike other fairness metrics, infra-marginality does not have a trade-off with accuracy: high accuracy directly leads to low infra-marginality. This observation is confirmed through empirical analysis on multiple simulated and real-world datasets. Further, we find that maximizing group fairness often increases infra-marginality, suggesting the consideration of both group-level fairness and individual-level infra-marginality. However, measuring infra-marginality requires knowledge of the true distribution of individual-level outcomes correctly and explicitly. We propose a practical method to measure infra-marginality, and a simple algorithm to maximize group-wise accuracy and avoid infra-marginality.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

In this work, we propose marginalized operators, a new class of off-policy evaluation operators for reinforcement learning. Marginalized operators strictly generalize generic multi-step operators, such as Retrace, as special cases. Marginalized operators also suggest a form of sample-based estimates with potential variance reduction, compared to sample-based estimates of the original multi-step operators. We show that the estimates for marginalized operators can be computed in a scalable way, which also generalizes prior results on marginalized importance sampling as special cases. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that marginalized operators provide performance gains to off-policy evaluation and downstream policy optimization algorithms.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

In stochastic multi-armed bandits, the reward distribution of each arm is assumed to be stationary. This assumption is often violated in practice (e.g., in recommendation systems), where the reward of an arm may change whenever is selected, i.e., rested bandit setting. In this paper, we consider the non-parametric rotting bandit setting, where rewards can only decrease. We introduce the filtering on expanding window average (FEWA) algorithm that constructs moving averages of increasing windows to identify arms that are more likely to return high rewards when pulled once more. We prove that for an unknown horizon T, and without any knowledge on the decreasing behavior of the K arms, FEWA achieves problem-dependent regret bound of mathcal{O}((KT)), and a problem-independent one of mathcal{O}(KT). Our result substantially improves over the algorithm of Levine et al. (2017), which suffers regret mathcal{O}(K^{1/3}T^{2/3}). FEWA also matches known bounds for the stochastic bandit setting, thus showing that the rotting bandits are not harder. Finally, we report simulations confirming the theoretical improvements of FEWA.

We introduce an exploration bonus for deep reinforcement learning methods that is easy to implement and adds minimal overhead to the computation performed. The bonus is the error of a neural network predicting features of the observations given by a fixed randomly initialized neural network. We also introduce a method to flexibly combine intrinsic and extrinsic rewards. We find that the random network distillation (RND) bonus combined with this increased flexibility enables significant progress on several hard exploration Atari games. In particular we establish state of the art performance on Montezuma's Revenge, a game famously difficult for deep reinforcement learning methods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method that achieves better than average human performance on this game without using demonstrations or having access to the underlying state of the game, and occasionally completes the first level.

In Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), constructing a robust advantage baseline is critical for policy gradients, effectively guiding the policy model to reinforce desired behaviors. Recent research has introduced Generalist Value Models (such as V_0), which achieve pre-trained value estimation by explicitly encoding model capabilities in-context, eliminating the need to synchronously update the value model alongside the policy model. In this paper, we propose V_{0.5}, which adaptively fuses the baseline predicted by such value model (acting as a prior) with the empirical mean derived from sparse rollouts. This constructs a robust baseline that balances computational efficiency with extremely low variance. Specifically, we introduce a real-time statistical testing and dynamic budget allocation. This balances the high variance caused by sparse sampling against the systematic bias (or hallucinations) inherent in the value model's prior. By constructing a hypothesis test to evaluate the prior's reliability in real-time, the system dynamically allocates additional rollout budget on demand. This mechanism minimizes the baseline estimator's Mean Squared Error (MSE), guaranteeing stable policy gradients, even under extreme sparsity with a group size of 4. Extensive evaluations across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that V_{0.5} significantly outperforms GRPO and DAPO, achieving faster convergence and over some 10% performance improvement.

Conditional computing processes an input using only part of the neural network's computational units. Learning to execute parts of a deep convolutional network by routing individual samples has several advantages: Reducing the computational burden is an obvious advantage. Furthermore, if similar classes are routed to the same path, that part of the network learns to discriminate between finer differences and better classification accuracies can be attained with fewer parameters. Recently, several papers have exploited this idea to take a particular child of a node in a tree-shaped network or to skip parts of a network. In this work, we follow a Trellis-based approach for generating specific execution paths in a deep convolutional neural network. We have designed routing mechanisms that use differentiable information gain-based cost functions to determine which subset of features in a convolutional layer will be executed. We call our method Conditional Information Gain Trellis (CIGT). We show that our conditional execution mechanism achieves comparable or better model performance compared to unconditional baselines, using only a fraction of the computational resources.

Independently trained domain specialists can be fused post-hoc into a single model that outperforms any individual specialist, and the gain is predictable: gain = 0.82 x divergence - 2.72 (R^2 = 0.856, n=6, 3-26% divergence). This enables practitioners to estimate cooperative value before committing compute. Below ~3.3% divergence, gains approach zero.In the KALAVAI protocol, contributors fine-tune copies of a shared checkpoint independently, then submit for lightweight MoE routing (500 steps). Gains are consistent: +7.72% at 410M (+/-0.02%, 3 seeds), +7.49% at 1B (+/-0.01%, 3 seeds), +6.53% at 6.9B, each over the best specialist. The router matches domain-oracle routing within <10^{-5} nats. Cross-lingual fusion (Tamil/Yoruba/Welsh/Code) achieves +21.76%, with Yoruba perplexity falling 41.9 to 7.7. A 20-contributor federation achieves +16.71% (+/-0.07pp, 3 seeds).Three requirements bound the protocol. Shared initialisation is necessary: checkpoint mismatch degrades routing. Frozen layers are optional below ~10,000 steps and beneficial beyond. Learned routing is essential: uniform averaging degrades by -1.2% vs. best specialist, while any trained router achieves oracle-optimal assignment.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

When the performance of a machine learning model varies over groups defined by sensitive attributes (e.g., gender or ethnicity), the performance disparity can be expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the input and output variables over each group. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reduce the disparate impact of a fixed classification model over a population of interest. Given a black-box classifier, we aim to eliminate the performance gap by perturbing the distribution of input variables for the disadvantaged group. We refer to the perturbed distribution as a counterfactual distribution, and characterize its properties for common fairness criteria. We introduce a descent algorithm to learn a counterfactual distribution from data. We then discuss how the estimated distribution can be used to build a data preprocessor that can reduce disparate impact without training a new model. We validate our approach through experiments on real-world datasets, showing that it can repair different forms of disparity without a significant drop in accuracy.

In this paper, we investigate the influence of claims in analyst reports and earnings calls on financial market returns, considering them as significant quarterly events for publicly traded companies. To facilitate a comprehensive analysis, we construct a new financial dataset for the claim detection task in the financial domain. We benchmark various language models on this dataset and propose a novel weak-supervision model that incorporates the knowledge of subject matter experts (SMEs) in the aggregation function, outperforming existing approaches. We also demonstrate the practical utility of our proposed model by constructing a novel measure of optimism. Here, we observe the dependence of earnings surprise and return on our optimism measure. Our dataset, models, and code are publicly (under CC BY 4.0 license) available on GitHub.