Daily Papers

Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather forecasting, power load forecasting, and financial analysis. In recent studies, MLP-mixer models for time series forecasting have been shown as a promising alternative to transformer-based models. However, the performance of these models is still yet to reach its potential. In this paper, we propose Wavelet Patch Mixer (WPMixer), a novel MLP-based model, for long-term time series forecasting, which leverages the benefits of patching, multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, and mixing. Our model is based on three key components: (i) multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, (ii) patching and embedding, and (iii) MLP mixing. Multi-resolution wavelet decomposition efficiently extracts information in both the frequency and time domains. Patching allows the model to capture an extended history with a look-back window and enhances capturing local information while MLP mixing incorporates global information. Our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art MLP-based and transformer-based models for long-term time series forecasting in a computationally efficient way, demonstrating its efficacy and potential for practical applications.

RNN-based methods have faced challenges in the Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) domain when dealing with excessively long look-back windows and forecast horizons. Consequently, the dominance in this domain has shifted towards Transformer, MLP, and CNN approaches. The substantial number of recurrent iterations are the fundamental reasons behind the limitations of RNNs in LTSF. To address these issues, we propose two novel strategies to reduce the number of iterations in RNNs for LTSF tasks: Segment-wise Iterations and Parallel Multi-step Forecasting (PMF). RNNs that combine these strategies, namely SegRNN, significantly reduce the required recurrent iterations for LTSF, resulting in notable improvements in forecast accuracy and inference speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SegRNN not only outperforms SOTA Transformer-based models but also reduces runtime and memory usage by more than 78%. These achievements provide strong evidence that RNNs continue to excel in LTSF tasks and encourage further exploration of this domain with more RNN-based approaches. The source code is coming soon.

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Data augmentation (DA) has become a de facto solution to expand training data size for deep learning. With the proliferation of deep models for time series analysis, various time series DA techniques are proposed in the literature, e.g., cropping-, warping-, flipping-, and mixup-based methods. However, these augmentation methods mainly apply to time series classification and anomaly detection tasks. In time series forecasting (TSF), we need to model the fine-grained temporal relationship within time series segments to generate accurate forecasting results given data in a look-back window. Existing DA solutions in the time domain would break such a relationship, leading to poor forecasting accuracy. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes simple yet effective frequency domain augmentation techniques that ensure the semantic consistency of augmented data-label pairs in forecasting, named FrAug. We conduct extensive experiments on eight widely-used benchmarks with several state-of-the-art TSF deep models. Our results show that FrAug can boost the forecasting accuracy of TSF models in most cases. Moreover, we show that FrAug enables models trained with 1\% of the original training data to achieve similar performance to the ones trained on full training data, which is particularly attractive for cold-start forecasting. Finally, we show that applying test-time training with FrAug greatly improves forecasting accuracy for time series with significant distribution shifts, which often occurs in real-life TSF applications. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Fraug-more-results-1785.

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in multimodal reasoning. However, they often excessively rely on textual information during the later stages of inference, neglecting the crucial integration of visual input. Current methods typically address this by explicitly injecting visual information to guide the reasoning process. In this work, through an analysis of MLLM attention patterns, we made an intriguing observation: with appropriate guidance, MLLMs can spontaneously re-focus their attention on visual inputs during the later stages of reasoning, even without explicit visual information injection. This spontaneous shift in focus suggests that MLLMs are intrinsically capable of performing visual fusion reasoning. Building on this insight, we introduce Look-Back, an implicit approach designed to guide MLLMs to ``look back" at visual information in a self-directed manner during reasoning. Look-Back empowers the model to autonomously determine when, where, and how to re-focus on visual inputs, eliminating the need for explicit model-structure constraints or additional input. We demonstrate that Look-Back significantly enhances the model's reasoning and perception capabilities, as evidenced by extensive empirical evaluations on multiple multimodal benchmarks.

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.