Daily Papers

Recent advances in diffusion transformers have empowered video generation models to generate high-quality video clips from texts or images. However, world models with the ability to predict long-horizon futures from past observations and actions remain underexplored, especially for general-purpose scenarios and various forms of actions. To bridge this gap, we introduce Astra, an interactive general world model that generates real-world futures for diverse scenarios (e.g., autonomous driving, robot grasping) with precise action interactions (e.g., camera motion, robot action). We propose an autoregressive denoising architecture and use temporal causal attention to aggregate past observations and support streaming outputs. We use a noise-augmented history memory to avoid over-reliance on past frames to balance responsiveness with temporal coherence. For precise action control, we introduce an action-aware adapter that directly injects action signals into the denoising process. We further develop a mixture of action experts that dynamically route heterogeneous action modalities, enhancing versatility across diverse real-world tasks such as exploration, manipulation, and camera control. Astra achieves interactive, consistent, and general long-term video prediction and supports various forms of interactions. Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate the improvements of Astra in fidelity, long-range prediction, and action alignment over existing state-of-the-art world models.

World models (WMs) are intended to serve as internal simulators of the real world that enable agents to understand, anticipate, and act upon complex environments. Existing WM benchmarks remain narrowly focused on next-state prediction and visual fidelity, overlooking the richer simulation capabilities required for intelligent behavior. To address this gap, we introduce WR-Arena, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating WMs along three fundamental dimensions of next world simulation: (i) Action Simulation Fidelity, the ability to interpret and follow semantically meaningful, multi-step instructions and generate diverse counterfactual rollouts; (ii) Long-horizon Forecast, the ability to sustain accurate, coherent, and physically plausible simulations across extended interactions; and (iii) Simulative Reasoning and Planning, the ability to support goal-directed reasoning by simulating, comparing, and selecting among alternative futures in both structured and open-ended environments. We build a task taxonomy and curate diverse datasets designed to probe these capabilities, moving beyond single-turn and perceptual evaluations. Through extensive experiments with state-of-the-art WMs, our results expose a substantial gap between current models and human-level hypothetical reasoning, and establish WR-Arena as both a diagnostic tool and a guideline for advancing next-generation world models capable of robust understanding, forecasting, and purposeful action. The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-IFM/WR-Arena.

The highly anticipated 'Battle of the Water Networks' is back with a new challenge for the water community. This competition will be hosted at the 4th International Joint Conference on Water Distribution Systems Analysis and Computing and Control in the Water Industry (WDSA/CCWI 2026), taking place in Paphos, Cyprus, from May 18-21, 2026. This competition embodies the core mission of Water-Futures and the theme for WDSA/CCWI 2026: "Designing the next generation of urban water (and wastewater) systems." The objective is to design and operate a water distribution system over a long-term horizon under deep uncertainty, with interventions applied in stages. For the first time, this challenge features a staged-design approach, unobservable and unknown uncertainties, and incorporates elements of policymaking and artificial intelligence. The solutions will be assessed using a transparent and inspectable open-source evaluation framework.

Modeling open-play soccer tactics is a formidable challenge due to the stochastic, multi-agent nature of the game. Existing computational approaches typically produce single, deterministic trajectory forecasts or focus on highly structured set-pieces, fundamentally failing to capture the inherent variance and branching possibilities of real-world match evolution. Here, we introduce GenTac, a diffusion-based generative framework that conceptualizes soccer tactics as a stochastic process over continuous multi-player trajectories and discrete semantic events. By learning the underlying distribution of player movements from historical tracking data, GenTac samples diverse, plausible, long-horizon future trajectories. The framework supports rich contextual conditioning, including opponent behavior, specific team or league playing styles, and strategic objectives, while grounding continuous spatial dynamics into a 15-class tactical event space. Extensive evaluations on our proposed benchmark, TacBench, demonstrate four key capabilities: (1) GenTac achieves high geometric accuracy while strictly preserving the collective structural consistency of the team; (2) it accurately simulates stylistic nuances, distinguishing between specific teams (e.g., Auckland FC) and leagues (e.g., A-League versus German leagues); (3) it enables controllable counterfactual simulations, demonstrably altering spatial control and expected threat metrics based on offensive or defensive guidance; and (4) it reliably anticipates future tactical outcomes directly from generated rollouts. Finally, we demonstrate that GenTac can be successfully trained to generalize to other dynamic team sports, including basketball, American football, and ice hockey.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive reasoning abilities, but translating reasoning into actions in the real world remains challenging. In particular, it remains unclear how to complete a given task provably within a minimum number of interactions with the external environment, e.g., through an internal mechanism of reasoning. To this end, we propose a principled framework with provable regret guarantees to orchestrate reasoning and acting, which we call "reason for future, act for now" (RAFA). Specifically, we design a prompt template for reasoning that learns from the memory buffer and plans a future trajectory over a long horizon ("reason for future"). At each step, the LLM agent takes the initial action of the planned trajectory ("act for now"), stores the collected feedback in the memory buffer, and reinvokes the reasoning routine to replan the future trajectory from the new state. The key idea is to cast reasoning in LLMs as learning and planning in Bayesian adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). Correspondingly, we prompt LLMs to form an updated posterior of the unknown environment from the memory buffer (learning) and generate an optimal trajectory for multiple future steps that maximizes a value function (planning). The learning and planning subroutines are performed in an "in-context" manner to emulate the actor-critic update for MDPs. Our theoretical analysis proves that the novel combination of long-term reasoning and short-term acting achieves a T regret. In particular, the regret bound highlights an intriguing interplay between the prior knowledge obtained through pretraining and the uncertainty reduction achieved by reasoning and acting. Our empirical validation shows that it outperforms various existing frameworks and achieves nearly perfect scores on a few benchmarks.

Generalizing to long-horizon manipulation tasks in a zero-shot setting remains a central challenge in robotics. Current multimodal foundation based approaches, despite their capabilities, typically fail to decompose high-level commands into executable action sequences from static visual input alone. To address this challenge, we introduce Super-Mimic, a hierarchical framework that enables zero-shot robotic imitation by directly inferring procedural intent from unscripted human demonstration videos. Our framework is composed of two sequential modules. First, a Human Intent Translator (HIT) parses the input video using multimodal reasoning to produce a sequence of language-grounded subtasks. These subtasks then condition a Future Dynamics Predictor (FDP), which employs a generative model that synthesizes a physically plausible video rollout for each step. The resulting visual trajectories are dynamics-aware, explicitly modeling crucial object interactions and contact points to guide the low-level controller. We validate this approach through extensive experiments on a suite of long-horizon manipulation tasks, where Super-Mimic significantly outperforms state-of-the-art zero-shot methods by over 20%. These results establish that coupling video-driven intent parsing with prospective dynamics modeling is a highly effective strategy for developing general-purpose robotic systems.

Autoregressive video world models predict future visual observations conditioned on actions. While effective over short horizons, these models often struggle with long-horizon generation, as small prediction errors accumulate over time. Prior methods alleviate this by introducing pre-trained teacher models and sequence-level distribution matching, which incur additional computational cost and fail to prevent error propagation beyond the training horizon. In this work, we propose LIVE, a Long-horizon Interactive Video world modEl that enforces bounded error accumulation via a novel cycle-consistency objective, thereby eliminating the need for teacher-based distillation. Specifically, LIVE first performs a forward rollout from ground-truth frames and then applies a reverse generation process to reconstruct the initial state. The diffusion loss is subsequently computed on the reconstructed terminal state, providing an explicit constraint on long-horizon error propagation. Moreover, we provide an unified view that encompasses different approaches and introduce progressive training curriculum to stabilize training. Experiments demonstrate that LIVE achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon benchmarks, generating stable, high-quality videos far beyond training rollout lengths.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

While agent evaluation has shifted toward long-horizon tasks, most benchmarks still emphasize local, step-level reasoning rather than the global constrained optimization (e.g., time and financial budgets) that demands genuine planning ability. Meanwhile, existing LLM planning benchmarks underrepresent the active information gathering and fine-grained local constraints typical of real-world settings. To address this, we introduce DeepPlanning, a challenging benchmark for practical long-horizon agent planning. It features multi-day travel planning and multi-product shopping tasks that require proactive information acquisition, local constrained reasoning, and global constrained optimization. Evaluations on DeepPlanning show that even frontier agentic LLMs struggle with these problems, highlighting the importance of reliable explicit reasoning patterns and parallel tool use for achieving better effectiveness-efficiency trade-offs. Error analysis further points to promising directions for improving agentic LLMs over long planning horizons. We open-source the code and data to support future research.

Embodied Planning is dedicated to the goal of creating agents capable of executing long-horizon tasks in complex physical worlds. However, existing embodied planning benchmarks frequently feature short-horizon tasks and coarse-grained action primitives. To address this challenge, we introduce CookBench, a benchmark for long-horizon planning in complex cooking scenarios. By leveraging a high-fidelity simulation environment built upon the powerful Unity game engine, we define frontier AI challenges in a complex, realistic environment. The core task in CookBench is designed as a two-stage process. First, in Intention Recognition, an agent needs to accurately parse a user's complex intent. Second, in Embodied Interaction, the agent should execute the identified cooking goal through a long-horizon, fine-grained sequence of physical actions. Unlike existing embodied planning benchmarks, we refine the action granularity to a spatial level that considers crucial operational information while abstracting away low-level robotic control. Besides, We provide a comprehensive toolset that encapsulates the simulator. Its unified API supports both macro-level operations, such as placing orders and purchasing ingredients, and a rich set of fine-grained embodied actions for physical interaction, enabling researchers to focus on high-level planning and decision-making. Furthermore, we present an in-depth analysis of state-of-the-art, closed-source Large Language Model and Vision-Language Model, revealing their major shortcomings and challenges posed by complex, long-horizon tasks. The full benchmark will be open-sourced to facilitate future research.

Large language models are transitioning from generalpurpose knowledge engines to realworld problem solvers, yet optimizing them for deep search tasks remains challenging. The central bottleneck lies in the extreme sparsity of highquality search trajectories and reward signals, arising from the difficulty of scalable longhorizon task construction and the high cost of interactionheavy rollouts involving external tool calls. To address these challenges, we propose REDSearcher, a unified framework that codesigns complex task synthesis, midtraining, and posttraining for scalable searchagent optimization. Specifically, REDSearcher introduces the following improvements: (1) We frame task synthesis as a dualconstrained optimization, where task difficulty is precisely governed by graph topology and evidence dispersion, allowing scalable generation of complex, highquality tasks. (2) We introduce toolaugmented queries to encourage proactive tool use rather than passive recall.(3) During midtraining, we strengthen core atomic capabilities knowledge, planning, and function calling substantially reducing the cost of collecting highquality trajectories for downstream training. (4) We build a local simulated environment that enables rapid, lowcost algorithmic iteration for reinforcement learning experiments. Across both textonly and multimodal searchagent benchmarks, our approach achieves stateoftheart performance. To facilitate future research on longhorizon search agents, we will release 10K highquality complex text search trajectories, 5K multimodal trajectories and 1K text RL query set, and together with code and model checkpoints.

Embodied imitation learning is constrained by the scarcity of diverse, long-horizon robotic manipulation data. Existing video generation models for this domain are limited to synthesizing short clips of simple actions and often rely on manually defined trajectories. To this end, we introduce MIND-V, a hierarchical framework designed to synthesize physically plausible and logically coherent videos of long-horizon robotic manipulation. Inspired by cognitive science, MIND-V bridges high-level reasoning with pixel-level synthesis through three core components: a Semantic Reasoning Hub (SRH) that leverages a pre-trained vision-language model for task planning; a Behavioral Semantic Bridge (BSB) that translates abstract instructions into domain-invariant representations; and a Motor Video Generator (MVG) for conditional video rendering. MIND-V employs Staged Visual Future Rollouts, a test-time optimization strategy to enhance long-horizon robustness. To align the generated videos with physical laws, we introduce a GRPO reinforcement learning post-training phase guided by a novel Physical Foresight Coherence (PFC) reward. PFC leverages the V-JEPA world model to enforce physical plausibility by aligning the predicted and actual dynamic evolutions in the feature space. MIND-V demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in long-horizon robotic manipulation video generation, establishing a scalable and controllable paradigm for embodied data synthesis.

In long-horizon tasks, recent agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) face a significant challenge that sparse, outcome-based rewards make it difficult to assign credit to intermediate steps. Previous methods mainly focus on creating dense reward signals to guide learning, either through traditional reinforcement learning techniques like inverse reinforcement learning or by using Process Reward Models for step-by-step feedback. In this paper, we identify a fundamental problem in the learning dynamics of LLMs: the magnitude of policy gradients is inherently coupled with the entropy, which leads to inefficient small updates for confident correct actions and potentially destabilizes large updates for uncertain ones. To resolve this, we propose Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients (EMPG), a framework that re-calibrates the learning signal based on step-wise uncertainty and the final task outcome. EMPG amplifies updates for confident correct actions, penalizes confident errors, and attenuates updates from uncertain steps to stabilize exploration. We further introduce a bonus term for future clarity that encourages agents to find more predictable solution paths. Through comprehensive experiments on three challenging agent tasks, WebShop, ALFWorld, and Deep Search, we demonstrate that EMPG achieves substantial performance gains and significantly outperforms strong policy gradient baselines. Project page is at https://empgseed-seed.github.io/

Multimodal deep search agents have shown great potential in solving complex tasks by iteratively collecting textual and visual evidence. However, managing the heterogeneous information and high token costs associated with multimodal inputs over long horizons remains a critical challenge, as existing methods often suffer from context explosion or the loss of crucial visual signals. To address this, we propose a novel Long-horizon MultiModal deep search framework, named LMM-Searcher, centered on a file-based visual representation mechanism. By offloading visual assets to an external file system and mapping them to lightweight textual identifiers (UIDs), our approach mitigates context overhead while preserving multimodal information for future access. We equip the agent with a tailored fetch-image tool, enabling a progressive, on-demand visual loading strategy for active perception. Furthermore, we introduce a data synthesis pipeline designed to generate queries requiring complex cross-modal multi-hop reasoning. Using this pipeline, we distill 12K high-quality trajectories to fine-tune Qwen3-VL-Thinking-30A3B into a specialized multimodal deep search agent. Extensive experiments across four benchmarks demonstrate that our method successfully scales to 100-turn search horizons, achieving state-of-the-art performance among open-source models on challenging long-horizon benchmarks like MM-BrowseComp and MMSearch-Plus, while also exhibiting strong generalizability across different base models. Our code will be released in https://github.com/RUCAIBox/LMM-Searcher.

How well do AI systems perform in algorithm engineering for hard optimization problems in domains such as package-delivery routing, crew scheduling, factory production planning, and power-grid balancing? We introduce ALE-Bench, a new benchmark for evaluating AI systems on score-based algorithmic programming contests. Drawing on real tasks from the AtCoder Heuristic Contests, ALE-Bench presents optimization problems that are computationally hard and admit no known exact solution. Unlike short-duration, pass/fail coding benchmarks, ALE-Bench encourages iterative solution refinement over long time horizons. Our software framework supports interactive agent architectures that leverage test-run feedback and visualizations. Our evaluation of frontier LLMs revealed that while they demonstrate high performance on specific problems, a notable gap remains compared to humans in terms of consistency across problems and long-horizon problem-solving capabilities. This highlights the need for this benchmark to foster future AI advancements.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents exhibit strong step-by-step reasoning capabilities over short horizons, yet often fail to sustain coherent behavior over long planning horizons. We argue that this failure reflects a fundamental mismatch: step-wise reasoning induces a form of step-wise greedy policy that is adequate for short horizons but fails in long-horizon planning, where early actions must account for delayed consequences. From this planning-centric perspective, we study LLM-based agents in deterministic, fully structured environments with explicit state transitions and evaluation signals. Our analysis reveals a core failure mode of reasoning-based policies: locally optimal choices induced by step-wise scoring lead to early myopic commitments that are systematically amplified over time and difficult to recover from. We introduce FLARE (Future-aware Lookahead with Reward Estimation) as a minimal instantiation of future-aware planning to enforce explicit lookahead, value propagation, and limited commitment in a single model, allowing downstream outcomes to influence early decisions. Across multiple benchmarks, agent frameworks, and LLM backbones, FLARE consistently improves task performance and planning-level behavior, frequently allowing LLaMA-8B with FLARE to outperform GPT-4o with standard step-by-step reasoning. These results establish a clear distinction between reasoning and planning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful operators for evolutionary search, yet the design of efficient search scaffolds remains ad hoc. While promising, current LLM-in-the-loop systems lack a systematic approach to managing the evolutionary process. We identify three distinct failure modes: Context Pollution, where experiment history biases future candidate generation; Mode Collapse, where agents stagnate in local minima due to poor exploration-exploitation balance; and Weak Collaboration, where rigid crossover strategies fail to leverage parallel search trajectories effectively. We introduce Progress-Aware Consistent Evolution (PACEvolve), a framework designed to robustly govern the agent's context and search dynamics, to address these challenges. PACEvolve combines hierarchical context management (HCM) with pruning to address context pollution; momentum-based backtracking (MBB) to escape local minima; and a self-adaptive sampling policy that unifies backtracking and crossover for dynamic search coordination (CE), allowing agents to balance internal refinement with cross-trajectory collaboration. We demonstrate that PACEvolve provides a systematic path to consistent, long-horizon self-improvement, achieving state-of-the-art results on LLM-SR and KernelBench, while discovering solutions surpassing the record on Modded NanoGPT.

Recent advances in AI-assisted programming have empowered agents to execute complex workflows via command-line interfaces, however, existing benchmarks are limited by short task horizons, data contamination from GitHub scraping, and a lack of fine-grained evaluation metrics, fail to rigorously evaluate the long-horizon planning and execution capabilities essential for realistic software engineering. To address these gaps, we introduce LongCLI-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate agentic capabilities across long-horizon, realistic tasks. We curated 20 high-quality, long-horizon tasks from over 1,000 computer science assignments and real-world workflows, covering four engineering categories: from scratch, feature addition, bug fixing, and refactoring. We propose a dual-set testing protocol for LongCLI-Bench, which measures requirement fulfillment (fail-to-pass) and regression avoidance (pass-to-pass), and incorporates step-level scoring to pinpoint execution failures. Extensive experiments reveal that even state-of-the-art agents achieve pass rates below 20% in LongCLI-Bench. Step-level analysis further indicates that the majority of tasks stall at less than 30% completion, highlighting that critical failures often occur in the early stages. Although self-correction offers marginal gains, human-agent collaboration through plan injection and interactive guidance yields significantly higher improvements. These results highlight that future research must emphasize the development of synergistic human-agent workflows alongside advances in agents' planning and execution capabilities to overcome key challenges in long-horizon task performance.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in isolated step-by-step reasoning tasks such as mathematics and programming, but their proficiency in long-horizon planning, where solutions require extended, structured sequences of interdependent actions, remains underexplored. Existing benchmarks typically assess LLMs through abstract or low-dimensional algorithmic tasks, failing to capture the complexity of realistic planning environments. We introduce HeroBench, a novel benchmark designed specifically to evaluate long-horizon planning and structured reasoning within complex RPG-inspired virtual worlds. HeroBench provides a rigorously constructed dataset of tasks covering a wide range of difficulties, a simulated environment to execute and validate agent plans, and detailed analytical tools for evaluating model performance. Tasks challenge models to formulate strategic plans, efficiently gather resources, master necessary skills, craft equipment, and defeat adversaries, reflecting practical scenarios' layered dependencies and constraints. Our extensive evaluation of 25 state-of-the-art LLMs, spanning both open-source and proprietary models, including the GPT-5 family, reveals substantial performance disparities rarely observed in conventional reasoning benchmarks. Detailed error analysis further uncovers specific weaknesses in current models' abilities to generate robust high-level plans and reliably execute structured actions. HeroBench thus not only significantly advances the evaluation of LLM reasoning but also provides a flexible, scalable foundation for future research into advanced, autonomous planning in virtual environments.

Accurate long-horizon vessel trajectory prediction remains challenging due to compounded uncertainty from complex navigation behaviors and environmental factors. Existing methods often struggle to maintain global directional consistency, leading to drifting or implausible trajectories when extrapolated over long time horizons. To address this issue, we propose a semantic-key-point-conditioned trajectory modeling framework, in which future trajectories are predicted by conditioning on a high-level Next Key Point (NKP) that captures navigational intent. This formulation decomposes long-horizon prediction into global semantic decision-making and local motion modeling, effectively restricting the support of future trajectories to semantically feasible subsets. To efficiently estimate the NKP prior from historical observations, we adopt a pretrain-finetune strategy. Extensive experiments on real-world AIS data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, particularly for long travel durations, directional accuracy, and fine-grained trajectory prediction.

As large language models (LLMs) evolve into autonomous agents for long-horizon information-seeking, managing finite context capacity has become a critical bottleneck. Existing context management methods typically commit to a single fixed strategy throughout the entire trajectory. Such static designs may work well in some states, but they cannot adapt as the usefulness and reliability of the accumulated context evolve during long-horizon search. To formalize this challenge, we introduce a probabilistic framework that characterizes long-horizon success through two complementary dimensions: search efficiency and terminal precision. Building on this perspective, we propose AgentSwing, a state-aware adaptive parallel context management routing framework. At each trigger point, AgentSwing expands multiple context-managed branches in parallel and uses lookahead routing to select the most promising continuation. Experiments across diverse benchmarks and agent backbones show that AgentSwing consistently outperforms strong static context management methods, often matching or exceeding their performance with up to 3times fewer interaction turns while also improving the ultimate performance ceiling of long-horizon web agents. Beyond the empirical gains, the proposed probabilistic framework provides a principled lens for analyzing and designing future context management strategies for long-horizon agents.

Deception is a pervasive feature of human communication and an emerging concern in large language models (LLMs). While recent studies document instances of LLM deception under pressure, most evaluations remain confined to single-turn prompts and fail to capture the long-horizon interactions in which deceptive strategies typically unfold. We introduce the first simulation framework for probing and evaluating deception in LLMs under extended sequences of interdependent tasks and dynamic contextual pressures. Our framework instantiates a multi-agent system: a performer agent tasked with completing tasks and a supervisor agent that evaluates progress, provides feedback, and maintains evolving states of trust. An independent deception auditor then reviews full trajectories to identify when and how deception occurs. We conduct extensive experiments across 11 frontier models, spanning both closed- and open-source systems, and find that deception is model-dependent, increases with event pressure, and consistently erodes supervisor trust. Qualitative analyses further reveal distinct strategies of concealment, equivocation, and falsification. Our findings establish deception as an emergent risk in long-horizon interactions and provide a foundation for evaluating future LLMs in real-world, trust-sensitive contexts.

Software development is iterative, yet agentic coding benchmarks overwhelmingly evaluate single-shot solutions against complete specifications. Code can pass the test suite but become progressively harder to extend. Recent iterative benchmarks attempt to close this gap, but constrain the agent's design decisions too tightly to faithfully measure how code quality shapes future extensions. We introduce SlopCodeBench, a language-agnostic benchmark comprising 20 problems and 93 checkpoints, in which agents repeatedly extend their own prior solutions under evolving specifications that force architectural decisions without prescribing internal structure. We track two trajectory-level quality signals: verbosity, the fraction of redundant or duplicated code, and structural erosion, the share of complexity mass concentrated in high-complexity functions. No agent solves any problem end-to-end across 11 models; the highest checkpoint solve rate is 17.2%. Quality degrades steadily: erosion rises in 80% of trajectories and verbosity in 89.8%. Against 48 open-source Python repositories, agent code is 2.2x more verbose and markedly more eroded. Tracking 20 of those repositories over time shows that human code stays flat, while agent code deteriorates with each iteration. A prompt-intervention study shows that initial quality can be improved, but it does not halt degradation. These results demonstrate that pass-rate benchmarks systematically undermeasure extension robustness, and that current agents lack the design discipline iterative software development demands.

Long-horizon reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models faces critical scalability challenges from unbounded context growth, leading to context folding methods that compress interaction history during task execution. However, existing approaches treat summary actions as standard actions, overlooking that summaries fundamentally modify the agent's future observation space, creating a policy-dependent, non-stationary observation distribution that violates core RL assumptions. This introduces three fundamental challenges: (1) gradient dilution where summary tokens receive insufficient training signal, (2) self-conditioning where policy updates change summary distributions, creating a vicious cycle of training collapse, and (3) computational cost from processing unique contexts at each turn. We introduce FoldActhttps://github.com/SHAO-Jiaqi757/FoldAct, a framework that explicitly addresses these challenges through three key innovations: separated loss computation for independent gradient signals on summary and action tokens, full context consistency loss to reduce distribution shift, and selective segment training to reduce computational cost. Our method enables stable training of long-horizon search agents with context folding, addressing the non-stationary observation problem while improving training efficiency with 5.19times speedup.

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has illuminated the potential for a general-purpose user simulator. However, existing benchmarks remain constrained to isolated scenarios, narrow action spaces, or synthetic data, failing to capture the holistic nature of authentic human behavior. To bridge this gap, we introduce OmniBehavior, the first user simulation benchmark constructed entirely from real-world data, integrating long-horizon, cross-scenario, and heterogeneous behavioral patterns into a unified framework. Based on this benchmark, we first provide empirical evidence that previous datasets with isolated scenarios suffer from tunnel vision, whereas real-world decision-making relies on long-term, cross-scenario causal chains. Extensive evaluations of state-of-the-art LLMs reveal that current models struggle to accurately simulate these complex behaviors, with performance plateauing even as context windows expand. Crucially, a systematic comparison between simulated and authentic behaviors uncovers a fundamental structural bias: LLMs tend to converge toward a positive average person, exhibiting hyper-activity, persona homogenization, and a Utopian bias. This results in the loss of individual differences and long-tail behaviors, highlighting critical directions for future high-fidelity simulation research.

Recent advances in video generation have produced models capable of synthesizing stunning visual content from simple text prompts. However, these models struggle to generate long-form, coherent narratives from high-level concepts like dialogue, revealing a ``semantic gap'' between a creative idea and its cinematic execution. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel, end-to-end agentic framework for dialogue-to-cinematic-video generation. Central to our framework is ScripterAgent, a model trained to translate coarse dialogue into a fine-grained, executable cinematic script. To enable this, we construct ScriptBench, a new large-scale benchmark with rich multimodal context, annotated via an expert-guided pipeline. The generated script then guides DirectorAgent, which orchestrates state-of-the-art video models using a cross-scene continuous generation strategy to ensure long-horizon coherence. Our comprehensive evaluation, featuring an AI-powered CriticAgent and a new Visual-Script Alignment (VSA) metric, shows our framework significantly improves script faithfulness and temporal fidelity across all tested video models. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers a crucial trade-off in current SOTA models between visual spectacle and strict script adherence, providing valuable insights for the future of automated filmmaking.

Solving complex long-horizon robotic manipulation problems requires sophisticated high-level planning capabilities, the ability to reason about the physical world, and reactively choose appropriate motor skills. Vision-language models (VLMs) pretrained on Internet data could in principle offer a framework for tackling such problems. However, in their current form, VLMs lack both the nuanced understanding of intricate physics required for robotic manipulation and the ability to reason over long horizons to address error compounding issues. In this paper, we introduce a novel test-time computation framework that enhances VLMs' physical reasoning capabilities for multi-stage manipulation tasks. At its core, our approach iteratively improves a pretrained VLM with a "reflection" mechanism - it uses a generative model to imagine future world states, leverages these predictions to guide action selection, and critically reflects on potential suboptimalities to refine its reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art commercial VLMs as well as other post-training approaches such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Videos are available at https://reflect-vlm.github.io.

Autonomous intelligence requires not only perception and reasoning, but critically, effective interaction with the existing world and its infrastructure. Everyday environments are rich in tangible control interfaces (TCIs), e.g., light switches, appliance panels, and embedded GUIs, that demand commonsense and physics reasoning, but also causal prediction and outcome verification in time and space (e.g., delayed heating, remote lights). Moreover, failures here have potential safety implications, yet current benchmarks rarely test grounding, partial observability (video), or post-hoc verification in situated settings. We introduce SWITCH (Semantic World Interface Tasks for Control and Handling), an embodied, task-driven benchmark created through iterative releases to probe these gaps. Its first iteration, SWITCH-Basic, evaluates five complementary abilities:task-aware VQA, semantic UI grounding, action generation, state-transition prediction, and result verification, under egocentric RGB video input and device diversity. Across 351 tasks spanning 98 real devices and appliances, commercial and open LMMMs exhibit inconsistent performance even on single-step interactions, often over-relying on textual cues and under-using visual or video evidence (and high aggregate scores can mask such failures). SWITCH provides data, code, and held-out splits to enable reproducible evaluation and community contributions toward more challenging future iterations of the benchmark and the creation of training datasets. Benchmark resources are available at: https://github.com/BAAI-Agents/SWITCH.

LiDAR representation learning aims to extract rich structural and semantic information from large-scale, readily available datasets, reducing reliance on costly human annotations. However, existing LiDAR representation strategies often overlook the inherent spatiotemporal cues in LiDAR sequences, limiting their effectiveness. In this work, we propose LiMA, a novel long-term image-to-LiDAR Memory Aggregation framework that explicitly captures longer range temporal correlations to enhance LiDAR representation learning. LiMA comprises three key components: 1) a Cross-View Aggregation module that aligns and fuses overlapping regions across neighboring camera views, constructing a more unified and redundancy-free memory bank; 2) a Long-Term Feature Propagation mechanism that efficiently aligns and integrates multi-frame image features, reinforcing temporal coherence during LiDAR representation learning; and 3) a Cross-Sequence Memory Alignment strategy that enforces consistency across driving sequences, improving generalization to unseen environments. LiMA maintains high pretraining efficiency and incurs no additional computational overhead during downstream tasks. Extensive experiments on mainstream LiDAR-based perception benchmarks demonstrate that LiMA significantly improves both LiDAR semantic segmentation and 3D object detection. We hope this work inspires more effective pretraining paradigms for autonomous driving. The code has be made publicly accessible for future research.

Recent advancements in LLM-powered agents have demonstrated significant potential in generating human-like responses; however, they continue to face challenges in maintaining long-term interactions within complex environments, primarily due to limitations in contextual consistency and dynamic personalization. Existing memory systems often depend on semantic grouping prior to retrieval, which can overlook semantically irrelevant yet critical user information and introduce retrieval noise. In this report, we propose the initial design of O-Mem, a novel memory framework based on active user profiling that dynamically extracts and updates user characteristics and event records from their proactive interactions with agents. O-Mem supports hierarchical retrieval of persona attributes and topic-related context, enabling more adaptive and coherent personalized responses. O-Mem achieves 51.67% on the public LoCoMo benchmark, a nearly 3% improvement upon LangMem,the previous state-of-the-art, and it achieves 62.99% on PERSONAMEM, a 3.5% improvement upon A-Mem,the previous state-of-the-art. O-Mem also boosts token and interaction response time efficiency compared to previous memory frameworks. Our work opens up promising directions for developing efficient and human-like personalized AI assistants in the future.

A world model enables an intelligent agent to imagine, predict, and reason about how the world evolves in response to its actions, and accordingly to plan and strategize. While recent video generation models produce realistic visual sequences, they typically operate in the prompt-to-full-video manner without causal control, interactivity, or long-horizon consistency required for purposeful reasoning. Existing world modeling efforts, on the other hand, often focus on restricted domains (e.g., physical, game, or 3D-scene dynamics) with limited depth and controllability, and struggle to generalize across diverse environments and interaction formats. In this work, we introduce PAN, a general, interactable, and long-horizon world model that predicts future world states through high-quality video simulation conditioned on history and natural language actions. PAN employs the Generative Latent Prediction (GLP) architecture that combines an autoregressive latent dynamics backbone based on a large language model (LLM), which grounds simulation in extensive text-based knowledge and enables conditioning on language-specified actions, with a video diffusion decoder that reconstructs perceptually detailed and temporally coherent visual observations, to achieve a unification between latent space reasoning (imagination) and realizable world dynamics (reality). Trained on large-scale video-action pairs spanning diverse domains, PAN supports open-domain, action-conditioned simulation with coherent, long-term dynamics. Extensive experiments show that PAN achieves strong performance in action-conditioned world simulation, long-horizon forecasting, and simulative reasoning compared to other video generators and world models, taking a step towards general world models that enable predictive simulation of future world states for reasoning and acting.

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

Video generation is pivotal to digital media creation, and recent advances in autoregressive video generation have markedly enhanced the efficiency of real-time video synthesis. However, existing approaches generally rely on heuristic KV Cache policies, which ignore differences in token importance in long-term video generation. This leads to the loss of critical spatiotemporal information and the accumulation of redundant, invalid cache, thereby degrading video generation quality and efficiency. To address this limitation, we first observe that token contributions to video generation are highly time-heterogeneous and accordingly propose a novel Past- and Future-Informed KV Cache Policy (PaFu-KV). Specifically, PaFu-KV introduces a lightweight Salience Estimation Head distilled from a bidirectional teacher to estimate salience scores, allowing the KV cache to retain informative tokens while discarding less relevant ones. This policy yields a better quality-efficiency trade-off by shrinking KV cache capacity and reducing memory footprint at inference time. Extensive experiments on benchmarks demonstrate that our method preserves high-fidelity video generation quality while enables accelerated inference, thereby enabling more efficient long-horizon video generation. Our code will be released upon paper acceptance.

Enabling VLA models to predict environmental dynamics, known as world modeling, has been recognized as essential for improving robotic reasoning and generalization. However, current approaches face two main issues: 1. The training objective forces models to over-emphasize pixel-level reconstruction, which constrains semantic learning and generalization 2. Reliance on predicted future observations during inference often leads to error accumulation. To address these challenges, we introduce Future Representation Alignment via Parallel Progressive Expansion (FRAPPE). Our method adopts a two-stage fine-tuning strategy: In the mid-training phase, the model learns to predict the latent representations of future observations; In the post-training phase, we expand the computational workload in parallel and align the representation simultaneously with multiple different visual foundation models. By significantly improving fine-tuning efficiency and reducing dependence on action-annotated data, FRAPPE provides a scalable and data-efficient pathway to enhance world-awareness in generalist robotic policies. Experiments on the RoboTwin benchmark and real-world tasks demonstrate that FRAPPE outperforms state-of-the-art approaches and shows strong generalization in long-horizon and unseen scenarios.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

What if a world simulation model could render not an imagined environment but a city that actually exists? Prior generative world models synthesize visually plausible yet artificial environments by imagining all content. We present Seoul World Model (SWM), a city-scale world model grounded in the real city of Seoul. SWM anchors autoregressive video generation through retrieval-augmented conditioning on nearby street-view images. However, this design introduces several challenges, including temporal misalignment between retrieved references and the dynamic target scene, limited trajectory diversity and data sparsity from vehicle-mounted captures at sparse intervals. We address these challenges through cross-temporal pairing, a large-scale synthetic dataset enabling diverse camera trajectories, and a view interpolation pipeline that synthesizes coherent training videos from sparse street-view images. We further introduce a Virtual Lookahead Sink to stabilize long-horizon generation by continuously re-grounding each chunk to a retrieved image at a future location. We evaluate SWM against recent video world models across three cities: Seoul, Busan, and Ann Arbor. SWM outperforms existing methods in generating spatially faithful, temporally consistent, long-horizon videos grounded in actual urban environments over trajectories reaching hundreds of meters, while supporting diverse camera movements and text-prompted scenario variations.

Existing Large Language Model (LLM) agents struggle in interactive environments requiring long-horizon planning, primarily due to compounding errors when simulating future states. To address this, we propose ProAct, a framework that enables agents to internalize accurate lookahead reasoning through a two-stage training paradigm. First, we introduce Grounded LookAhead Distillation (GLAD), where the agent undergoes supervised fine-tuning on trajectories derived from environment-based search. By compressing complex search trees into concise, causal reasoning chains, the agent learns the logic of foresight without the computational overhead of inference-time search. Second, to further refine decision accuracy, we propose the Monte-Carlo Critic (MC-Critic), a plug-and-play auxiliary value estimator designed to enhance policy-gradient algorithms like PPO and GRPO. By leveraging lightweight environment rollouts to calibrate value estimates, MC-Critic provides a low-variance signal that facilitates stable policy optimization without relying on expensive model-based value approximation. Experiments on both stochastic (e.g., 2048) and deterministic (e.g., Sokoban) environments demonstrate that ProAct significantly improves planning accuracy. Notably, a 4B parameter model trained with ProAct outperforms all open-source baselines and rivals state-of-the-art closed-source models, while demonstrating robust generalization to unseen environments. The codes and models are available at https://github.com/GreatX3/ProAct

Reinforcement learning (RL), particularly its combination with deep neural networks referred to as deep RL (DRL), has shown tremendous promise across a wide range of applications, suggesting its potential for enabling the development of sophisticated robotic behaviors. Robotics problems, however, pose fundamental difficulties for the application of RL, stemming from the complexity and cost of interacting with the physical world. This article provides a modern survey of DRL for robotics, with a particular focus on evaluating the real-world successes achieved with DRL in realizing several key robotic competencies. Our analysis aims to identify the key factors underlying those exciting successes, reveal underexplored areas, and provide an overall characterization of the status of DRL in robotics. We highlight several important avenues for future work, emphasizing the need for stable and sample-efficient real-world RL paradigms, holistic approaches for discovering and integrating various competencies to tackle complex long-horizon, open-world tasks, and principled development and evaluation procedures. This survey is designed to offer insights for both RL practitioners and roboticists toward harnessing RL's power to create generally capable real-world robotic systems.

World engines aim to synthesize long, 3D-consistent videos that support interactive exploration of a scene under user-controlled camera motion. However, existing systems struggle under aggressive 6-DoF trajectories and complex outdoor layouts: they lose long-range geometric coherence, deviate from the target path, or collapse into overly conservative motion. To this end, we introduce Captain Safari, a pose-conditioned world engine that generates videos by retrieving from a persistent world memory. Given a camera path, our method maintains a dynamic local memory and uses a retriever to fetch pose-aligned world tokens, which then condition video generation along the trajectory. This design enables the model to maintain stable 3D structure while accurately executing challenging camera maneuvers. To evaluate this setting, we curate OpenSafari, a new in-the-wild FPV dataset containing high-dynamic drone videos with verified camera trajectories, constructed through a multi-stage geometric and kinematic validation pipeline. Across video quality, 3D consistency, and trajectory following, Captain Safari substantially outperforms state-of-the-art camera-controlled generators. It reduces MEt3R from 0.3703 to 0.3690, improves AUC@30 from 0.181 to 0.200, and yields substantially lower FVD than all camera-controlled baselines. More importantly, in a 50-participant, 5-way human study where annotators select the best result among five anonymized models, 67.6% of preferences favor our method across all axes. Our results demonstrate that pose-conditioned world memory is a powerful mechanism for long-horizon, controllable video generation and provide OpenSafari as a challenging new benchmark for future world-engine research.

App agents, which autonomously operate mobile Apps through Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs), have gained significant interest in real-world applications. Yet, they often struggle with long-horizon planning, failing to find the optimal actions for complex tasks with longer steps. To address this, world models are used to predict the next GUI observation based on user actions, enabling more effective agent planning. However, existing world models primarily focus on generating only textual descriptions, lacking essential visual details. To fill this gap, we propose ViMo, the first visual world model designed to generate future App observations as images. For the challenge of generating text in image patches, where even minor pixel errors can distort readability, we decompose GUI generation into graphic and text content generation. We propose a novel data representation, the Symbolic Text Representation~(STR) to overlay text content with symbolic placeholders while preserving graphics. With this design, ViMo employs a STR Predictor to predict future GUIs' graphics and a GUI-text Predictor for generating the corresponding text. Moreover, we deploy ViMo to enhance agent-focused tasks by predicting the outcome of different action options. Experiments show ViMo's ability to generate visually plausible and functionally effective GUIs that enable App agents to make more informed decisions.

Modeling the time-dependent evolution of electron density is essential for understanding quantum mechanical behaviors of condensed matter and enabling predictive simulations in spectroscopy, photochemistry, and ultrafast science. Yet, while machine learning methods have advanced static density prediction, modeling its spatiotemporal dynamics remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce a generative framework that combines a 3D convolutional autoencoder with a latent diffusion model (LDM) to learn electron density trajectories from ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. Our method encodes electron densities into a compact latent space and predicts their future states by sampling from the learned conditional distribution, enabling stable long-horizon rollouts without drift or collapse. To preserve statistical fidelity, we incorporate a scaled Jensen-Shannon divergence regularization that aligns generated and reference density distributions. On AIMD trajectories of liquid lithium at 800 K, our model accurately captures both the spatial correlations and the log-normal-like statistical structure of the density. The proposed framework has the potential to accelerate the simulation of quantum dynamics and overcome key challenges faced by current spatiotemporal machine learning methods as surrogates of quantum mechanical simulators.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models aim to control robots for manipulation from visual observations and natural-language instructions. However, existing hierarchical and autoregressive paradigms often introduce architectural overhead, suffer from temporal inconsistency and long-horizon error accumulation, and lack a mechanism to capture environment dynamics without extra modules. To this end, we present MMaDA-VLA, a fully native pre-trained large diffusion VLA model that unifies multi-modal understanding and generation in a single framework. Our key idea is a native discrete diffusion formulation that embeds language, images, and continuous robot controls into one discrete token space and trains a single backbone with masked token denoising to jointly generate a future goal observation and an action chunk in parallel. Iterative denoising enables global, order-free refinement, improving long-horizon consistency while grounding actions in predicted future visual outcomes without auxiliary world models. Experiments across simulation benchmarks and real-world tasks show state-of-the-art performance, achieving 98.0% average success on LIBERO and 4.78 average length on CALVIN.

An embodied AI assistant operating on egocentric video must integrate spatial cues across time - for instance, determining where an object A, glimpsed a few moments ago lies relative to an object B encountered later. We introduce Disjoint-3DQA , a generative QA benchmark that evaluates this ability of VLMs by posing questions about object pairs that are not co-visible in the same frame. We evaluated seven state-of-the-art VLMs and found that models lag behind human performance by 28%, with steeper declines in accuracy (60% to 30 %) as the temporal gap widens. Our analysis further reveals that providing trajectories or bird's-eye-view projections to VLMs results in only marginal improvements, whereas providing oracle 3D coordinates leads to a substantial 20% performance increase. This highlights a core bottleneck of multi-frame VLMs in constructing and maintaining 3D scene representations over time from visual signals. Disjoint-3DQA therefore sets a clear, measurable challenge for long-horizon spatial reasoning and aims to catalyze future research at the intersection of vision, language, and embodied AI.

Recent advances in reasoning-centric language models have highlighted reinforcement learning (RL) as a promising method for aligning models with verifiable rewards. However, it remains contentious whether RL truly expands a model's reasoning capabilities or merely amplifies high-reward outputs already latent in the base model's distribution, and whether continually scaling up RL compute reliably leads to improved reasoning performance. In this work, we challenge prevailing assumptions by demonstrating that prolonged RL (ProRL) training can uncover novel reasoning strategies that are inaccessible to base models, even under extensive sampling. We introduce ProRL, a novel training methodology that incorporates KL divergence control, reference policy resetting, and a diverse suite of tasks. Our empirical analysis reveals that RL-trained models consistently outperform base models across a wide range of pass@k evaluations, including scenarios where base models fail entirely regardless of the number of attempts. We further show that reasoning boundary improvements correlates strongly with task competence of base model and training duration, suggesting that RL can explore and populate new regions of solution space over time. These findings offer new insights into the conditions under which RL meaningfully expands reasoning boundaries in language models and establish a foundation for future work on long-horizon RL for reasoning. We release model weights to support further research: https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Nemotron-Research-Reasoning-Qwen-1.5B

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have recently enabled robotic manipulation by grounding visual and linguistic cues into actions. However, most VLAs assume the Markov property, relying only on the current observation and thus suffering from temporal myopia that degrades long-horizon coherence. In this work, we view motion as a more compact and informative representation of temporal context and world dynamics, capturing inter-state changes while filtering static pixel-level noise. Building on this idea, we propose HiF-VLA (Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight for VLAs), a unified framework that leverages motion for bidirectional temporal reasoning. HiF-VLA encodes past dynamics through hindsight priors, anticipates future motion via foresight reasoning, and integrates both through a hindsight-modulated joint expert to enable a ''think-while-acting'' paradigm for long-horizon manipulation. As a result, HiF-VLA surpasses strong baselines on LIBERO-Long and CALVIN ABC-D benchmarks, while incurring negligible additional inference latency. Furthermore, HiF-VLA achieves substantial improvements in real-world long-horizon manipulation tasks, demonstrating its broad effectiveness in practical robotic settings.

We introduce Moirai 2.0, a decoder-only time-series foundation model trained on a new corpus of 36M series. The model adopts quantile forecasting and multi-token prediction, improving both probabilistic accuracy and inference efficiency. On the Gift-Eval benchmark, it ranks among the top pretrained models while achieving a strong trade-off between accuracy, speed, and model size. Compared to Moirai 1.0, Moirai 2.0 replaces masked-encoder training, multi-patch inputs, and mixture-distribution outputs with a simpler decoder-only architecture, single patch, and quantile loss. Ablation studies isolate these changes -- showing that the decoder-only backbone along with recursive multi-quantile decoding contribute most to the gains. Additional experiments show that Moirai 2.0 outperforms larger models from the same family and exhibits robust domain-level results. In terms of efficiency and model size, Moirai 2.0 is twice as fast and thirty times smaller than its prior best version, Moirai 1.0-Large, while also performing better. Model performance plateaus with increasing parameter count and declines at longer horizons, motivating future work on data scaling and long-horizon modeling. We release code and evaluation details to support further research.

Reasoning is a fundamental cognitive process underlying inference, problem-solving, and decision-making. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning capabilities in closed-world settings, they struggle in open-ended and dynamic environments. Agentic reasoning marks a paradigm shift by reframing LLMs as autonomous agents that plan, act, and learn through continual interaction. In this survey, we organize agentic reasoning along three complementary dimensions. First, we characterize environmental dynamics through three layers: foundational agentic reasoning, which establishes core single-agent capabilities including planning, tool use, and search in stable environments; self-evolving agentic reasoning, which studies how agents refine these capabilities through feedback, memory, and adaptation; and collective multi-agent reasoning, which extends intelligence to collaborative settings involving coordination, knowledge sharing, and shared goals. Across these layers, we distinguish in-context reasoning, which scales test-time interaction through structured orchestration, from post-training reasoning, which optimizes behaviors via reinforcement learning and supervised fine-tuning. We further review representative agentic reasoning frameworks across real-world applications and benchmarks, including science, robotics, healthcare, autonomous research, and mathematics. This survey synthesizes agentic reasoning methods into a unified roadmap bridging thought and action, and outlines open challenges and future directions, including personalization, long-horizon interaction, world modeling, scalable multi-agent training, and governance for real-world deployment.

Tool learning, which enables large language models (LLMs) to utilize external tools effectively, has garnered increasing attention for its potential to revolutionize productivity across industries. Despite rapid development in tool learning, key challenges and opportunities remain understudied, limiting deeper insights and future advancements. In this paper, we investigate the tool learning ability of 41 prevalent LLMs by reproducing 33 benchmarks and enabling one-click evaluation for seven of them, forming a Tool Learning Platform named ToLeaP. We also collect 21 out of 33 potential training datasets to facilitate future exploration. After analyzing over 3,000 bad cases of 41 LLMs based on ToLeaP, we identify four main critical challenges: (1) benchmark limitations induce both the neglect and lack of (2) autonomous learning, (3) generalization, and (4) long-horizon task-solving capabilities of LLMs. To aid future advancements, we take a step further toward exploring potential directions, namely (1) real-world benchmark construction, (2) compatibility-aware autonomous learning, (3) rationale learning by thinking, and (4) identifying and recalling key clues. The preliminary experiments demonstrate their effectiveness, highlighting the need for further research and exploration.

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

Ensuring sufficient exploration is a central challenge when training meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) agents to solve novel environments. Conventional solutions to the exploration-exploitation dilemma inject explicit incentives such as randomization, uncertainty bonuses, or intrinsic rewards to encourage exploration. In this work, we hypothesize that an agent trained solely to maximize a greedy (exploitation-only) objective can nonetheless exhibit emergent exploratory behavior, provided three conditions are met: (1) Recurring Environmental Structure, where the environment features repeatable regularities that allow past experience to inform future choices; (2) Agent Memory, enabling the agent to retain and utilize historical interaction data; and (3) Long-Horizon Credit Assignment, where learning propagates returns over a time frame sufficient for the delayed benefits of exploration to inform current decisions. Through experiments in stochastic multi-armed bandits and temporally extended gridworlds, we observe that, when both structure and memory are present, a policy trained on a strictly greedy objective exhibits information-seeking exploratory behavior. We further demonstrate, through controlled ablations, that emergent exploration vanishes if either environmental structure or agent memory is absent (Conditions 1 & 2). Surprisingly, removing long-horizon credit assignment (Condition 3) does not always prevent emergent exploration-a result we attribute to the pseudo-Thompson Sampling effect. These findings suggest that, under the right prerequisites, exploration and exploitation need not be treated as orthogonal objectives but can emerge from a unified reward-maximization process.

Recent advances in agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) have positioned them as generalist planners capable of reasoning and acting across diverse tasks. However, existing agent benchmarks largely focus on symbolic or weakly grounded environments, leaving their performance in physics-constrained real-world domains underexplored. We introduce AstroReason-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating agentic planning in Space Planning Problems (SPP), a family of high-stakes problems with heterogeneous objectives, strict physical constraints, and long-horizon decision-making. AstroReason-Bench integrates multiple scheduling regimes, including ground station communication and agile Earth observation, and provides a unified agent-oriented interaction protocol. Evaluating on a range of state-of-the-art open- and closed-source agentic LLM systems, we find that current agents substantially underperform specialized solvers, highlighting key limitations of generalist planning under realistic constraints. AstroReason-Bench offers a challenging and diagnostic testbed for future agentic research.

Long-horizon planning is widely recognized as a core capability of autonomous LLM-based agents; however, current evaluation frameworks suffer from being largely episodic, domain-specific, or insufficiently grounded in persistent economic dynamics. We introduce EcoGym, a generalizable benchmark for continuous plan-and-execute decision making in interactive economies. EcoGym comprises three diverse environments: Vending, Freelance, and Operation, implemented in a unified decision-making process with standardized interfaces, and budgeted actions over an effectively unbounded horizon (1000+ steps if 365 day-loops for evaluation). The evaluation of EcoGym is based on business-relevant outcomes (e.g., net worth, income, and DAU), targeting long-term strategic coherence and robustness under partial observability and stochasticity. Experiments across eleven leading LLMs expose a systematic tension: no single model dominates across all three scenarios. Critically, we find that models exhibit significant suboptimality in either high-level strategies or efficient actions executions. EcoGym is released as an open, extensible testbed for transparent long-horizon agent evaluation and for studying controllability-utility trade-offs in realistic economic settings.

Long-horizon workflow agents that operate effectively over extended periods are essential for truly autonomous systems. Their reliable execution critically depends on the ability to reason through ambiguous situations in which clarification seeking is necessary to ensure correct task execution. However, progress is limited by the lack of scalable, task-agnostic frameworks for systematically curating and measuring the impact of ambiguity across custom workflows. We address this gap by introducing LHAW (Long-Horizon Augmented Workflows), a modular, dataset-agnostic synthetic pipeline that transforms any well-specified task into controllable underspecified variants by systematically removing information across four dimensions - Goals, Constraints, Inputs, and Context - at configurable severity levels. Unlike approaches that rely on LLM predictions of ambiguity, LHAW validates variants through empirical agent trials, classifying them as outcome-critical, divergent, or benign based on observed terminal state divergence. We release 285 task variants from TheAgentCompany, SWE-Bench Pro and MCP-Atlas according to our taxonomy alongside formal analysis measuring how current agents detect, reason about, and resolve underspecification across ambiguous settings. LHAW provides the first systematic framework for cost-sensitive evaluation of agent clarification behavior in long-horizon settings, enabling development of reliable autonomous systems.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

This paper introduces KLong, an open-source LLM agent trained to solve extremely long-horizon tasks. The principle is to first cold-start the model via trajectory-splitting SFT, then scale it via progressive RL training. Specifically, we first activate basic agentic abilities of a base model with a comprehensive SFT recipe. Then, we introduce Research-Factory, an automated pipeline that generates high-quality training data by collecting research papers and constructing evaluation rubrics. Using this pipeline, we build thousands of long-horizon trajectories distilled from Claude 4.5 Sonnet (Thinking). To train with these extremely long trajectories, we propose a new trajectory-splitting SFT, which preserves early context, progressively truncates later context, and maintains overlap between sub-trajectories. In addition, to further improve long-horizon task-solving capability, we propose a novel progressive RL, which schedules training into multiple stages with progressively extended timeouts. Experiments demonstrate the superiority and generalization of KLong, as shown in Figure 1. Notably, our proposed KLong (106B) surpasses Kimi K2 Thinking (1T) by 11.28% on PaperBench, and the performance improvement generalizes to other coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and MLE-bench.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown remarkable capabilities in robotic manipulation, but their performance is sensitive to the action chunk length used during training, termed horizon. Our empirical study reveals an inherent trade-off: longer horizons provide stronger global foresight but degrade fine-grained accuracy, while shorter ones sharpen local control yet struggle on long-term tasks, implying fixed choice of single horizons being suboptimal. To mitigate the trade-off, we propose a mixture of horizons (MoH) strategy. MoH rearranges the action chunk into several segments with different horizons, processes them in parallel with a shared action transformer, and fuses outputs with a light linear gate. It has three appealing benefits. 1) MoH exploits long-term foresight and short-term precision jointly within a single model, improving both performance and generalizability to complex tasks. 2) MoH is plug-and-play for full-attention action modules with minimal training or inference overhead. 3) MoH enables dynamic inference with adaptive horizons, which selects stable actions through cross-horizon consensus, achieving 2.5times higher throughput than baselines while preserving superior performance. Extensive experiments over flow-based policies π_0, π_{0.5}, and one-step regression policy π_{reg} demonstrate that MoH yields consistent and significant gains on both simulations and real-world tasks. Notably, under mixed-task setting, π_{0.5} with MoH reaches a new state-of-the-art with 99% average success rate on LIBERO after only 30k training iterations. Project page: https://github.com/Timsty1/MixtureOfHorizons

As language models are increasingly deployed for complex autonomous tasks, their ability to reason accurately over longer horizons becomes critical. An essential component of this ability is planning and managing a long, complex chain-of-thought (CoT). We introduce LongCoT, a scalable benchmark of 2,500 expert-designed problems spanning chemistry, mathematics, computer science, chess, and logic to isolate and directly measure the long-horizon CoT reasoning capabilities of frontier models. Problems consist of a short input with a verifiable answer; solving them requires navigating a graph of interdependent steps that span tens to hundreds of thousands of reasoning tokens. Each local step is individually tractable for frontier models, so failures reflect long-horizon reasoning limitations. At release, the best models achieve <10% accuracy (GPT 5.2: 9.8%; Gemini 3 Pro: 6.1%) on LongCoT, revealing a substantial gap in current capabilities. Overall, LongCoT provides a rigorous measure of long-horizon reasoning, tracking the ability of frontier models to reason reliably over extended periods.

Agentic reinforcement learning has enabled large language models to perform complex multi-turn planning and tool use. However, learning in long-horizon settings remains challenging due to sparse, trajectory-level outcome rewards. While prior tree-based methods attempt to mitigate this issue, they often suffer from high variance and computational inefficiency. Through empirical analysis of search agents, We identify a common pattern: performance diverges mainly due to decisions near the tail. Motivated by this observation, we propose Branching Relative Policy Optimization (BranPO), a value-free method that provides step-level contrastive supervision without dense rewards. BranPO truncates trajectories near the tail and resamples alternative continuations to construct contrastive suffixes over shared prefixes, reducing credit ambiguity in long-horizon rollouts. To further boost efficiency and stabilize training, we introduce difficulty-aware branch sampling to adapt branching frequency across tasks, and redundant step masking to suppress uninformative actions. Extensive experiments on various question answering benchmarks demonstrate that BranPO consistently outperforms strong baselines, achieving significant accuracy gains on long-horizon tasks without increasing the overall training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/YubaoZhao/BranPO{code}.

Real-world long-horizon embodied planning underpins embodied AI. To accomplish long-horizon tasks, agents need to decompose abstract instructions into detailed steps. Prior works mostly rely on GPT-4V for task decomposition into predefined actions, which limits task diversity due to GPT-4V's finite understanding of larger skillsets. Therefore, we present ReLEP, a groundbreaking framework for Real world Long-horizon Embodied Planning, which can accomplish a wide range of daily tasks. At its core lies a fine-tuned large vision language model that formulates plans as sequences of skill functions according to input instruction and scene image. These functions are selected from a carefully designed skill library. ReLEP is also equipped with a Memory module for plan and status recall, and a Robot Configuration module for versatility across robot types. In addition, we propose a semi-automatic data generation pipeline to tackle dataset scarcity. Real-world off-line experiments across eight daily embodied tasks demonstrate that ReLEP is able to accomplish long-horizon embodied tasks and outperforms other state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Instructing a robot to complete an everyday task within our homes has been a long-standing challenge for robotics. While recent progress in language-conditioned imitation learning and offline reinforcement learning has demonstrated impressive performance across a wide range of tasks, they are typically limited to short-horizon tasks -- not reflective of those a home robot would be expected to complete. While existing architectures have the potential to learn these desired behaviours, the lack of the necessary long-horizon, multi-step datasets for real robotic systems poses a significant challenge. To this end, we present the Long-Horizon Manipulation (LHManip) dataset comprising 200 episodes, demonstrating 20 different manipulation tasks via real robot teleoperation. The tasks entail multiple sub-tasks, including grasping, pushing, stacking and throwing objects in highly cluttered environments. Each task is paired with a natural language instruction and multi-camera viewpoints for point-cloud or NeRF reconstruction. In total, the dataset comprises 176,278 observation-action pairs which form part of the Open X-Embodiment dataset. The full LHManip dataset is made publicly available at https://github.com/fedeceola/LHManip.

Autonomous agents have recently achieved remarkable progress across diverse domains, yet most evaluations focus on short-horizon, fully observable tasks. In contrast, many critical real-world tasks, such as large-scale software development, commercial investment, and scientific discovery, unfold in long-horizon and partially observable scenarios where success hinges on sustained reasoning, planning, memory management, and tool use. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these long-horizon challenges, leaving a gap in systematic evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce UltraHorizon a novel benchmark that measures the foundational capabilities essential for complex real-world challenges. We use exploration as a unifying task across three distinct environments to validate these core competencies. Agents are designed in long-horizon discovery tasks where they must iteratively uncover hidden rules through sustained reasoning, planning, memory and tools management, and interaction with environments. Under the heaviest scale setting, trajectories average 200k+ tokens and 400+ tool calls, whereas in standard configurations they still exceed 35k tokens and involve more than 60 tool calls on average. Our extensive experiments reveal that LLM-agents consistently underperform in these settings, whereas human participants achieve higher scores, underscoring a persistent gap in agents' long-horizon abilities. We also observe that simple scaling fails in our task. To better illustrate the failure of agents, we conduct an in-depth analysis of collected trajectories. We identify eight types of errors and attribute them to two primary causes: in-context locking and functional fundamental capability gaps. https://github.com/StarDewXXX/UltraHorizon{Our code will be available here.}

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant capabilities in natural language processing and reasoning, yet their effectiveness in autonomous planning has been under debate. While existing studies have utilized LLMs with external feedback mechanisms or in controlled environments for planning, these approaches often involve substantial computational and development resources due to the requirement for careful design and iterative backprompting. Moreover, even the most advanced LLMs like GPT-4 struggle to match human performance on standard planning benchmarks, such as the Blocksworld, without additional support. This paper investigates whether LLMs can independently generate long-horizon plans that rival human baselines. Our novel enhancements to Algorithm-of-Thoughts (AoT), which we dub AoT+, help achieve state-of-the-art results in planning benchmarks out-competing prior methods and human baselines all autonomously.

Accurate long horizon forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentration fields is essential for operational public health decisions. However, achieving reliable forecasts remains challenging in regions with complex terrain and strong atmospheric dynamics such as East Asia. While foundation models such as Aurora offer global generality, they often miss region-specific dynamics and rely on non-real-time inputs, limiting their practical utility for localized warning systems. To address this gap, we construct and release the real-world observations and high-resolution CMAQ-OBS dataset for East Asia, reducing regional error by 59.5% and enabling real-time 48-120 hour forecasts critical for public health alerts. However, standard point-wise objectives cannot reflect asymmetric operational costs, where false alarms deteriorate public trust while missed severe events endanger populations. This cost mismatch causes SFT models to over-predict and yield high False Alarm Rates. We introduce Group-Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with class-wise rewards and curriculum rollout to align predictions with operational priorities. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the reliability of the forecast. Compared to the SFT-only baseline, our model reduces the False Alarm Rate by 47.3% while achieving a competitive F1-score, proving its effectiveness for practical, real-world air quality forecasting systems on long lead time scenarios.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Hierarchical policies that combine language and low-level control have been shown to perform impressively long-horizon robotic tasks, by leveraging either zero-shot high-level planners like pretrained language and vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs) or models trained on annotated robotic demonstrations. However, for complex and dexterous skills, attaining high success rates on long-horizon tasks still represents a major challenge -- the longer the task is, the more likely it is that some stage will fail. Can humans help the robot to continuously improve its long-horizon task performance through intuitive and natural feedback? In this paper, we make the following observation: high-level policies that index into sufficiently rich and expressive low-level language-conditioned skills can be readily supervised with human feedback in the form of language corrections. We show that even fine-grained corrections, such as small movements ("move a bit to the left"), can be effectively incorporated into high-level policies, and that such corrections can be readily obtained from humans observing the robot and making occasional suggestions. This framework enables robots not only to rapidly adapt to real-time language feedback, but also incorporate this feedback into an iterative training scheme that improves the high-level policy's ability to correct errors in both low-level execution and high-level decision-making purely from verbal feedback. Our evaluation on real hardware shows that this leads to significant performance improvement in long-horizon, dexterous manipulation tasks without the need for any additional teleoperation. Videos and code are available at https://yay-robot.github.io/.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents have emerged as powerful autonomous controllers for digital environments, including mobile interfaces, operating systems, and web browsers. Web navigation, for example, requires handling dynamic content and long sequences of actions, making it particularly challenging. Existing LLM-based agents struggle with long-horizon planning in two main ways. During online execution, they often lose track as new information arrives, lacking a clear and adaptive path toward the final goal. This issue is further exacerbated during reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning, where sparse and delayed rewards make it difficult for agents to identify which actions lead to success, preventing them from maintaining coherent reasoning over extended tasks. To address these challenges, we propose two contributions. First, we introduce an agent framework that leverages proprietary models for online planning through subgoal decomposition. Second, we present MiRA (Milestoning your Reinforcement Learning Enhanced Agent), an RL training framework that uses dense, milestone-based reward signals. The real-time planning mechanism improves proprietary models such as Gemini by approximately a 10% absolute increase in success rate (SR) on the WebArena-Lite benchmark. Meanwhile, applying MiRA to the open Gemma3-12B model increases its success rate from 6.4% to 43.0%. This performance surpasses proprietary systems such as GPT-4-Turbo (17.6%) and GPT-4o (13.9%), as well as the previous open-model state of the art, WebRL (38.4%). Overall, our findings demonstrate that combining explicit inference-time planning with milestone-based rewards significantly improves an agent's long-horizon capabilities, paving the way for more robust and general-purpose autonomous systems.

Training long-horizon robotic policies in complex physical environments is essential for many applications, such as robotic manipulation. However, learning a policy that can generalize to unseen tasks is challenging. In this work, we propose to achieve one-shot task generalization by decoupling plan generation and plan execution. Specifically, our method solves complex long-horizon tasks in three steps: build a paired abstract environment by simplifying geometry and physics, generate abstract trajectories, and solve the original task by an abstract-to-executable trajectory translator. In the abstract environment, complex dynamics such as physical manipulation are removed, making abstract trajectories easier to generate. However, this introduces a large domain gap between abstract trajectories and the actual executed trajectories as abstract trajectories lack low-level details and are not aligned frame-to-frame with the executed trajectory. In a manner reminiscent of language translation, our approach leverages a seq-to-seq model to overcome the large domain gap between the abstract and executable trajectories, enabling the low-level policy to follow the abstract trajectory. Experimental results on various unseen long-horizon tasks with different robot embodiments demonstrate the practicability of our methods to achieve one-shot task generalization.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as world models to enhance agent decision-making in digital environments by simulating future states and predicting action outcomes, potentially eliminating costly trial-and-error exploration. However, this capability is fundamentally limited by LLMs' tendency toward hallucination and their reliance on static training knowledge, which can lead to compounding errors that inhibit long-horizon simulations. To systematically investigate whether LLMs are appropriate for world modeling, we probe two core capabilities of world models--future state prediction and reward estimation--through three tasks: next-state identification, full-procedure planning alignment, and milestone transition recognition. Our analysis shows that while LLMs effectively capture immediate next states and identify meaningful state transitions, their performance rapidly degrades in full-procedure planning. This highlights LLMs' limitations in reliably modeling environment dynamics over long horizons. To address these limitations, we propose the Retrieval-augmented World Model (R-WoM), which grounds LLM simulations by incorporating factual, up-to-date knowledge retrieved from external tutorials. Experiments show that R-WoM achieves substantial improvements of up to 25.3% (OSWorld) and 18.1% (WebArena) compared to baselines, with particular advantages in longer-horizon simulations.

Recent trends in test-time scaling for reasoning models (e.g., OpenAI o1, DeepSeek-R1) have led to remarkable improvements through long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, existing benchmarks mainly focus on immediate, single-horizon tasks, failing to adequately evaluate models' ability to understand and respond to complex, long-horizon scenarios. To address this incomplete evaluation of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), we propose R-HORIZON, a method designed to stimulate long-horizon reasoning behaviors in LRMs through query composition. Based on R-HORIZON, we construct a long-horizon reasoning benchmark, comprising complex multi-step reasoning tasks with interdependent problems that span long reasoning horizons. Through comprehensive evaluation of LRMs using the R-HORIZON benchmark, we find that even the most advanced LRMs suffer significant performance degradation. Our analysis reveals that LRMs exhibit limited effective reasoning length and struggle to allocate thinking budget across multiple problems appropriately. Recognizing these limitations, we use R-HORIZON to construct long-horizon reasoning data for reinforcement learning with verified rewards (RLVR). Compared to training with single-horizon data, RLVR with R-HORIZON not only substantially improves performance on the multi-horizon reasoning tasks, but also promotes accuracy on standard reasoning tasks, with an increase of 7.5 on AIME2024. These results position R-HORIZON as a scalable, controllable, and low-cost paradigm for enhancing and evaluating the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of LRMs.

Current robotic planning methods often rely on predicting multi-frame images with full pixel details. While this fine-grained approach can serve as a generic world model, it introduces two significant challenges for downstream policy learning: substantial computational costs that hinder real-time deployment, and accumulated inaccuracies that can mislead action extraction. Planning with coarse-grained subgoals partially alleviates efficiency issues. However, their forward planning schemes can still result in off-task predictions due to accumulation errors, leading to misalignment with long-term goals. This raises a critical question: Can robotic planning be both efficient and accurate enough for real-time control in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks? To address this, we propose a Latent Space Backward Planning scheme (LBP), which begins by grounding the task into final latent goals, followed by recursively predicting intermediate subgoals closer to the current state. The grounded final goal enables backward subgoal planning to always remain aware of task completion, facilitating on-task prediction along the entire planning horizon. The subgoal-conditioned policy incorporates a learnable token to summarize the subgoal sequences and determines how each subgoal guides action extraction. Through extensive simulation and real-robot long-horizon experiments, we show that LBP outperforms existing fine-grained and forward planning methods, achieving SOTA performance. Project Page: https://lbp-authors.github.io

Reinforcement learning (RL) is typically concerned with estimating stationary policies or single-step models, leveraging the Markov property to factorize problems in time. However, we can also view RL as a generic sequence modeling problem, with the goal being to produce a sequence of actions that leads to a sequence of high rewards. Viewed in this way, it is tempting to consider whether high-capacity sequence prediction models that work well in other domains, such as natural-language processing, can also provide effective solutions to the RL problem. To this end, we explore how RL can be tackled with the tools of sequence modeling, using a Transformer architecture to model distributions over trajectories and repurposing beam search as a planning algorithm. Framing RL as sequence modeling problem simplifies a range of design decisions, allowing us to dispense with many of the components common in offline RL algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach across long-horizon dynamics prediction, imitation learning, goal-conditioned RL, and offline RL. Further, we show that this approach can be combined with existing model-free algorithms to yield a state-of-the-art planner in sparse-reward, long-horizon tasks.

Large language models excel at short-horizon reasoning tasks, but performance drops as reasoning horizon lengths increase. Existing approaches to combat this rely on inference-time scaffolding or costly step-level supervision, neither of which scales easily. In this work, we introduce a scalable method to bootstrap long-horizon reasoning capabilities using only existing, abundant short-horizon data. Our approach synthetically composes simple problems into complex, multi-step dependency chains of arbitrary length. We train models on this data using outcome-only rewards under a curriculum that automatically increases in complexity, allowing RL training to be scaled much further without saturating. Empirically, our method generalizes remarkably well: curriculum training on composed 6th-grade level math problems (GSM8K) boosts accuracy on longer, competition-level benchmarks (GSM-Symbolic, MATH-500, AIME) by up to 2.06x. It also transfers significantly to diverse out-of-distribution ReasoningGym domains and long-context benchmarks, indicating broader generalization. Importantly, our long-horizon improvements are significantly higher than baselines even at high pass@k, showing that models can learn new reasoning paths under RL. Theoretically, we show that curriculum RL with outcome rewards achieves an exponential improvement in sample complexity over full-horizon training, providing training signal comparable to dense supervision. h1 therefore introduces an efficient path towards scaling RL for long-horizon problems using only existing data.

The advancement of artificial intelligence toward agentic science is currently bottlenecked by the challenge of ultra-long-horizon autonomy, the ability to sustain strategic coherence and iterative correction over experimental cycles spanning days or weeks. While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated prowess in short-horizon reasoning, they are easily overwhelmed by execution details in the high-dimensional, delayed-feedback environments of real-world research, failing to consolidate sparse feedback into coherent long-term guidance. Here, we present ML-Master 2.0, an autonomous agent that masters ultra-long-horizon machine learning engineering (MLE) which is a representative microcosm of scientific discovery. By reframing context management as a process of cognitive accumulation, our approach introduces Hierarchical Cognitive Caching (HCC), a multi-tiered architecture inspired by computer systems that enables the structural differentiation of experience over time. By dynamically distilling transient execution traces into stable knowledge and cross-task wisdom, HCC allows agents to decouple immediate execution from long-term experimental strategy, effectively overcoming the scaling limits of static context windows. In evaluations on OpenAI's MLE-Bench under 24-hour budgets, ML-Master 2.0 achieves a state-of-the-art medal rate of 56.44%. Our findings demonstrate that ultra-long-horizon autonomy provides a scalable blueprint for AI capable of autonomous exploration beyond human-precedent complexities.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

Anticipating diverse future states is a central challenge in video world modeling. Discriminative world models produce a deterministic prediction that implicitly averages over possible futures, while existing generative world models remain computationally expensive. Recent work demonstrates that predicting the future in the feature space of a vision foundation model (VFM), rather than a latent space optimized for pixel reconstruction, requires significantly fewer world model parameters. However, most such approaches remain discriminative. In this work, we introduce DeltaTok, a tokenizer that encodes the VFM feature difference between consecutive frames into a single continuous "delta" token, and DeltaWorld, a generative world model operating on these tokens to efficiently generate diverse plausible futures. Delta tokens reduce video from a three-dimensional spatio-temporal representation to a one-dimensional temporal sequence, for example yielding a 1,024x token reduction with 512x512 frames. This compact representation enables tractable multi-hypothesis training, where many futures are generated in parallel and only the best is supervised. At inference, this leads to diverse predictions in a single forward pass. Experiments on dense forecasting tasks demonstrate that DeltaWorld forecasts futures that more closely align with real-world outcomes, while having over 35x fewer parameters and using 2,000x fewer FLOPs than existing generative world models. Code and weights: https://deltatok.github.io.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have been widely-applied in ground-based vision-language navigation (VLN). However, the vast complexity of outdoor aerial environments compounds data acquisition challenges and imposes long-horizon trajectory planning requirements on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), introducing novel complexities for aerial VLN. To address these challenges, we propose a data-efficient Open-world aerial Vision-Language Navigation (i.e., OpenVLN) framework, which could execute language-guided flight with limited data constraints and enhance long-horizon trajectory planning capabilities in complex aerial environments. Specifically, we reconfigure a reinforcement learning framework to optimize the VLM for UAV navigation tasks, which can efficiently fine-tune VLM by using rule-based policies under limited training data. Concurrently, we introduce a long-horizon planner for trajectory synthesis that dynamically generates precise UAV actions via value-based rewards. To the end, we conduct sufficient navigation experiments on the TravelUAV benchmark with dataset scaling across diverse reward settings. Our method demonstrates consistent performance gains of up to 4.34% in Success Rate, 6.19% in Oracle Success Rate, and 4.07% in Success weighted by Path Length over baseline methods, validating its deployment efficacy for long-horizon UAV navigation in complex aerial environments.

Real-world multimodal agents solve multi-step workflows grounded in visual evidence. For example, an agent can troubleshoot a device by linking a wiring photo to a schematic and validating the fix with online documentation, or plan a trip by interpreting a transit map and checking schedules under routing constraints. However, existing multimodal benchmarks mainly evaluate single-turn visual reasoning or specific tool skills, and they do not fully capture the realism, visual subtlety, and long-horizon tool use that practical agents require. We introduce AgentVista, a benchmark for generalist multimodal agents that spans 25 sub-domains across 7 categories, pairing realistic and detail-rich visual scenarios with natural hybrid tool use. Tasks require long-horizon tool interactions across modalities, including web search, image search, page navigation, and code-based operations for both image processing and general programming. Comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models exposes significant gaps in their ability to carry out long-horizon multimodal tool use. Even the best model in our evaluation, Gemini-3-Pro with tools, achieves only 27.3% overall accuracy, and hard instances can require more than 25 tool-calling turns. We expect AgentVista to accelerate the development of more capable and reliable multimodal agents for realistic and ultra-challenging problem solving.

Recent advancements in long-context Large Language Models (LLMs) have primarily concentrated on processing extended input contexts, resulting in significant strides in long-context comprehension. However, the equally critical aspect of generating long-form outputs has received comparatively less attention. This paper advocates for a paradigm shift in NLP research toward addressing the challenges of long-output generation. Tasks such as novel writing, long-term planning, and complex reasoning require models to understand extensive contexts and produce coherent, contextually rich, and logically consistent extended text. These demands highlight a critical gap in current LLM capabilities. We underscore the importance of this under-explored domain and call for focused efforts to develop foundational LLMs tailored for generating high-quality, long-form outputs, which hold immense potential for real-world applications.

World models aim to endow AI systems with the ability to represent, generate, and interact with dynamic environments in a coherent and temporally consistent manner. While recent video generation models have demonstrated impressive visual quality, they remain limited in real-time interaction, long-horizon consistency, and persistent memory of dynamic scenes, hindering their evolution into practical world models. In this report, we present TeleWorld, a real-time multimodal 4D world modeling framework that unifies video generation, dynamic scene reconstruction, and long-term world memory within a closed-loop system. TeleWorld introduces a novel generation-reconstruction-guidance paradigm, where generated video streams are continuously reconstructed into a dynamic 4D spatio-temporal representation, which in turn guides subsequent generation to maintain spatial, temporal, and physical consistency. To support long-horizon generation with low latency, we employ an autoregressive diffusion-based video model enhanced with Macro-from-Micro Planning (MMPL)--a hierarchical planning method that reduces error accumulation from frame-level to segment-level-alongside efficient Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), enabling real-time synthesis under practical computational budgets. Our approach achieves seamless integration of dynamic object modeling and static scene representation within a unified 4D framework, advancing world models toward practical, interactive, and computationally accessible systems. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TeleWorld achieves strong performance in both static and dynamic world understanding, long-term consistency, and real-time generation efficiency, positioning it as a practical step toward interactive, memory-enabled world models for multimodal generation and embodied intelligence.

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

Long-horizon contact-rich tasks are challenging to learn with reinforcement learning, due to ineffective exploration of high-dimensional state spaces with sparse rewards. The learning process often gets stuck in local optimum and demands task-specific reward fine-tuning for complex scenarios. In this work, we propose a structured framework that leverages privileged actions with curriculum learning, enabling the policy to efficiently acquire long-horizon skills without relying on extensive reward engineering or reference trajectories. Specifically, we use privileged actions in simulation with a general training procedure that would be infeasible to implement in real-world scenarios. These privileges include relaxed constraints and virtual forces that enhance interaction and exploration with objects. Our results successfully achieve complex multi-stage long-horizon tasks that naturally combine non-prehensile manipulation with grasping to lift objects from non-graspable poses. We demonstrate generality by maintaining a parsimonious reward structure and showing convergence to diverse and robust behaviors across various environments. Additionally, real-world experiments further confirm that the skills acquired using our approach are transferable to real-world environments, exhibiting robust and intricate performance. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in these tasks, converging to solutions where others fail.

Long-horizon planning is hindered by challenges such as uncertainty accumulation, computational complexity, delayed rewards and incomplete information. This work proposes an approach to exploit the task hierarchy from human instructions to facilitate multi-robot planning. Using Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose a two-step approach to translate multi-sentence instructions into a structured language, Hierarchical Linear Temporal Logic (LTL), which serves as a formal representation for planning. Initially, LLMs transform the instructions into a hierarchical representation defined as Hierarchical Task Tree, capturing the logical and temporal relations among tasks. Following this, a domain-specific fine-tuning of LLM translates sub-tasks of each task into flat LTL formulas, aggregating them to form hierarchical LTL specifications. These specifications are then leveraged for planning using off-the-shelf planners. Our framework not only bridges the gap between instructions and algorithmic planning but also showcases the potential of LLMs in harnessing hierarchical reasoning to automate multi-robot task planning. Through evaluations in both simulation and real-world experiments involving human participants, we demonstrate that our method can handle more complex instructions compared to existing methods. The results indicate that our approach achieves higher success rates and lower costs in multi-robot task allocation and plan generation. Demos videos are available at https://youtu.be/7WOrDKxIMIs .

World models serve as essential building blocks toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), enabling intelligent agents to predict future states and plan actions by simulating complex physical interactions. However, existing interactive models primarily predict visual observations, thereby neglecting crucial hidden states like geometric structures and spatial coherence. This leads to rapid error accumulation and temporal inconsistency. To address these limitations, we introduce DeepVerse, a novel 4D interactive world model explicitly incorporating geometric predictions from previous timesteps into current predictions conditioned on actions. Experiments demonstrate that by incorporating explicit geometric constraints, DeepVerse captures richer spatio-temporal relationships and underlying physical dynamics. This capability significantly reduces drift and enhances temporal consistency, enabling the model to reliably generate extended future sequences and achieve substantial improvements in prediction accuracy, visual realism, and scene rationality. Furthermore, our method provides an effective solution for geometry-aware memory retrieval, effectively preserving long-term spatial consistency. We validate the effectiveness of DeepVerse across diverse scenarios, establishing its capacity for high-fidelity, long-horizon predictions grounded in geometry-aware dynamics.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot generalization abilities: state-of-the-art chatbots can provide plausible answers to many common questions that arise in daily life. However, so far, LLMs cannot reliably solve long-horizon planning problems. By contrast, classical planners, once a problem is given in a formatted way, can use efficient search algorithms to quickly identify correct, or even optimal, plans. In an effort to get the best of both worlds, this paper introduces LLM+P, the first framework that incorporates the strengths of classical planners into LLMs. LLM+P takes in a natural language description of a planning problem, then returns a correct (or optimal) plan for solving that problem in natural language. LLM+P does so by first converting the language description into a file written in the planning domain definition language (PDDL), then leveraging classical planners to quickly find a solution, and then translating the found solution back into natural language. Along with LLM+P, we define a diverse set of different benchmark problems taken from common planning scenarios. Via a comprehensive set of experiments on these benchmark problems, we find that LLM+P is able to provide optimal solutions for most problems, while LLMs fail to provide even feasible plans for most problems.\footnote{The code and results are publicly available at https://github.com/Cranial-XIX/llm-pddl.git.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

Recent advances in world models have shown promise for modeling future dynamics of environmental states, enabling agents to reason and act without accessing real environments. Current methods mainly perform single-step or fixed-horizon rollouts, leaving their potential for complex task planning under-exploited. We propose Imagine-then-Plan (ITP), a unified framework for agent learning via lookahead imagination, where an agent's policy model interacts with the learned world model, yielding multi-step ``imagined'' trajectories. Since the imagination horizon may vary by tasks and stages, we introduce a novel adaptive lookahead mechanism by trading off the ultimate goal and task progress. The resulting imagined trajectories provide rich signals about future consequences, such as achieved progress and potential conflicts, which are fused with current observations, formulating a partially observable and imaginable Markov decision process to guide policy learning. We instantiate ITP with both training-free and reinforcement-trained variants. Extensive experiments across representative agent benchmarks demonstrate that ITP significantly outperforms competitive baselines. Further analyses validate that our adaptive lookahead largely enhances agents' reasoning capability, providing valuable insights into addressing broader, complex tasks.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There exist significant challenges in LTSF due to its complex temporal dependencies and high computational demands. Although Transformer-based models offer high forecasting accuracy, they are often too compute-intensive to be deployed on devices with hardware constraints. On the other hand, the linear models aim to reduce the computational overhead by employing either decomposition methods in the time domain or compact representations in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose MixLinear, an ultra-lightweight multivariate time series forecasting model specifically designed for resource-constrained devices. MixLinear effectively captures both temporal and frequency domain features by modeling intra-segment and inter-segment variations in the time domain and extracting frequency variations from a low-dimensional latent space in the frequency domain. By reducing the parameter scale of a downsampled n-length input/output one-layer linear model from O(n^2) to O(n), MixLinear achieves efficient computation without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive evaluations with four benchmark datasets show that MixLinear attains forecasting performance comparable to, or surpassing, state-of-the-art models with significantly fewer parameters (0.1K), which makes it well-suited for deployment on devices with limited computational capacity.

Learning long-horizon tasks such as navigation has presented difficult challenges for successfully applying reinforcement learning to robotics. From another perspective, under known environments, sampling-based planning can robustly find collision-free paths in environments without learning. In this work, we propose Control Transformer that models return-conditioned sequences from low-level policies guided by a sampling-based Probabilistic Roadmap (PRM) planner. We demonstrate that our framework can solve long-horizon navigation tasks using only local information. We evaluate our approach on partially-observed maze navigation with MuJoCo robots, including Ant, Point, and Humanoid. We show that Control Transformer can successfully navigate through mazes and transfer to unknown environments. Additionally, we apply our method to a differential drive robot (Turtlebot3) and show zero-shot sim2real transfer under noisy observations.

We are interested in enabling visual planning for complex long-horizon tasks in the space of generated videos and language, leveraging recent advances in large generative models pretrained on Internet-scale data. To this end, we present video language planning (VLP), an algorithm that consists of a tree search procedure, where we train (i) vision-language models to serve as both policies and value functions, and (ii) text-to-video models as dynamics models. VLP takes as input a long-horizon task instruction and current image observation, and outputs a long video plan that provides detailed multimodal (video and language) specifications that describe how to complete the final task. VLP scales with increasing computation budget where more computation time results in improved video plans, and is able to synthesize long-horizon video plans across different robotics domains: from multi-object rearrangement, to multi-camera bi-arm dexterous manipulation. Generated video plans can be translated into real robot actions via goal-conditioned policies, conditioned on each intermediate frame of the generated video. Experiments show that VLP substantially improves long-horizon task success rates compared to prior methods on both simulated and real robots (across 3 hardware platforms).

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) offers a practical learning paradigm where goal-reaching policies are trained from abundant unlabeled (reward-free) datasets without additional environment interaction. However, offline GCRL still struggles with long-horizon tasks, even with recent advances that employ hierarchical policy structures, such as HIQL. By identifying the root cause of this challenge, we observe the following insights: First, performance bottlenecks mainly stem from the high-level policy's inability to generate appropriate subgoals. Second, when learning the high-level policy in the long-horizon regime, the sign of the advantage signal frequently becomes incorrect. Thus, we argue that improving the value function to produce a clear advantage signal for learning the high-level policy is essential. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective solution: Option-aware Temporally Abstracted value learning, dubbed OTA, which incorporates temporal abstraction into the temporal-difference learning process. By modifying the value update to be option-aware, the proposed learning scheme contracts the effective horizon length, enabling better advantage estimates even in long-horizon regimes. We experimentally show that the high-level policy extracted using the OTA value function achieves strong performance on complex tasks from OGBench, a recently proposed offline GCRL benchmark, including maze navigation and visual robotic manipulation environments.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

The accurate modeling of dynamics in interactive environments is critical for successful long-range prediction. Such a capability could advance Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Planning algorithms, but achieving it is challenging. Inaccuracies in model estimates can compound, resulting in increased errors over long horizons. We approach this problem from the lens of Koopman theory, where the nonlinear dynamics of the environment can be linearized in a high-dimensional latent space. This allows us to efficiently parallelize the sequential problem of long-range prediction using convolution while accounting for the agent's action at every time step. Our approach also enables stability analysis and better control over gradients through time. Taken together, these advantages result in significant improvement over the existing approaches, both in the efficiency and the accuracy of modeling dynamics over extended horizons. We also show that this model can be easily incorporated into dynamics modeling for model-based planning and model-free RL and report promising experimental results.

Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems often require hybrid solutions that bridge classical forecasting approaches and modern neural network models. In this study, we introduce the Probabilistic AutoRegressive Neural Networks (PARNN), capable of handling complex time series data exhibiting non-stationarity, nonlinearity, non-seasonality, long-range dependence, and chaotic patterns. PARNN is constructed by improving autoregressive neural networks (ARNN) using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) feedback error, combining the explainability, scalability, and "white-box-like" prediction behavior of both models. Notably, the PARNN model provides uncertainty quantification through prediction intervals, setting it apart from advanced deep learning tools. Through comprehensive computational experiments, we evaluate the performance of PARNN against standard statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, including Transformers, NBeats, and DeepAR. Diverse real-world datasets from macroeconomics, tourism, epidemiology, and other domains are employed for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting evaluations. Our results demonstrate the superiority of PARNN across various forecast horizons, surpassing the state-of-the-art forecasters. The proposed PARNN model offers a valuable hybrid solution for accurate long-range forecasting. By effectively capturing the complexities present in time series data, it outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy and reliability. The ability to quantify uncertainty through prediction intervals further enhances the model's usefulness in decision-making processes.

Model predictive control (MPC) with learned world models has emerged as a promising paradigm for embodied control, particularly for its ability to generalize zero-shot when deployed in new environments. However, learned world models often struggle with long-horizon control due to the accumulation of prediction errors and the exponentially growing search space. In this work, we address these challenges by learning latent world models at multiple temporal scales and performing hierarchical planning across these scales, enabling long-horizon reasoning while substantially reducing inference-time planning complexity. Our approach serves as a modular planning abstraction that applies across diverse latent world-model architectures and domains. We demonstrate that this hierarchical approach enables zero-shot control on real-world non-greedy robotic tasks, achieving a 70% success rate on pick-&-place using only a final goal specification, compared to 0% for a single-level world model. In addition, across physics-based simulated environments including push manipulation and maze navigation, hierarchical planning achieves higher success while requiring up to 4x less planning-time compute.

Recent advances in coding agents suggest rapid progress toward autonomous software development, yet existing benchmarks fail to rigorously evaluate the long-horizon capabilities required to build complete software systems. Most prior evaluations focus on localized code generation, scaffolded completion, or short-term repair tasks, leaving open the question of whether agents can sustain coherent reasoning, planning, and execution over the extended horizons demanded by real-world repository construction. To address this gap, we present NL2Repo Bench, a benchmark explicitly designed to evaluate the long-horizon repository generation ability of coding agents. Given only a single natural-language requirements document and an empty workspace, agents must autonomously design the architecture, manage dependencies, implement multi-module logic, and produce a fully installable Python library. Our experiments across state-of-the-art open- and closed-source models reveal that long-horizon repository generation remains largely unsolved: even the strongest agents achieve below 40% average test pass rates and rarely complete an entire repository correctly. Detailed analysis uncovers fundamental long-horizon failure modes, including premature termination, loss of global coherence, fragile cross-file dependencies, and inadequate planning over hundreds of interaction steps. NL2Repo Bench establishes a rigorous, verifiable testbed for measuring sustained agentic competence and highlights long-horizon reasoning as a central bottleneck for the next generation of autonomous coding agents.

Perpetual futures are the most popular cryptocurrency derivatives. Perpetuals offer leveraged exposure to their underlying without rollover or direct ownership. Unlike fixed-maturity futures, perpetuals are not guaranteed to converge to the spot price. To minimize the gap between perpetual and spot prices, long investors periodically pay shorts a funding rate proportional to this difference. We derive no-arbitrage prices for perpetual futures in frictionless markets and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically, deviations from these prices in crypto are larger than in traditional currency markets, comove across currencies, and diminish over time. An implied arbitrage strategy yields high Sharpe ratios.

Long-horizon decision-making tasks present significant challenges for LLM-based agents due to the need for extensive planning over multiple steps. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical framework that decomposes complex tasks into manageable subgoals, utilizing separate LLMs for subgoal prediction and low-level action generation. To address the challenge of creating training signals for unannotated datasets, we develop a reward model that leverages multimodal environment feedback to automatically generate reward signals. We introduce Environment Preference Optimization (EPO), a novel method that generates preference signals from the environment's feedback and uses them to train LLM-based agents. Extensive experiments on ALFRED demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our framework, achieving first place on the ALFRED public leaderboard and showcasing its potential to improve long-horizon decision-making in diverse environments.

Efficient control in long-horizon robotic manipulation is challenging due to complex representation and policy learning requirements. Model-based visual reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great potential in addressing these challenges but still faces notable limitations, particularly in handling sparse rewards and complex visual features in long-horizon environments. To address these limitations, we propose the Recognize-Sense-Plan-Act (RSPA) pipeline for long-horizon tasks and further introduce RoboHorizon, an LLM-assisted multi-view world model tailored for long-horizon robotic manipulation. In RoboHorizon, pre-trained LLMs generate dense reward structures for multi-stage sub-tasks based on task language instructions, enabling robots to better recognize long-horizon tasks. Keyframe discovery is then integrated into the multi-view masked autoencoder (MAE) architecture to enhance the robot's ability to sense critical task sequences, strengthening its multi-stage perception of long-horizon processes. Leveraging these dense rewards and multi-view representations, a robotic world model is constructed to efficiently plan long-horizon tasks, enabling the robot to reliably act through RL algorithms. Experiments on two representative benchmarks, RLBench and FurnitureBench, show that RoboHorizon outperforms state-of-the-art visual model-based RL methods, achieving a 23.35% improvement in task success rates on RLBench's 4 short-horizon tasks and a 29.23% improvement on 6 long-horizon tasks from RLBench and 3 furniture assembly tasks from FurnitureBench.

The convergence of embodied agents and large language models (LLMs) has brought significant advancements to embodied instruction following. Particularly, the strong reasoning capabilities of LLMs make it possible for robots to perform long-horizon tasks without expensive annotated demonstrations. However, public benchmarks for testing the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of language-conditioned robots in various scenarios are still missing. To fill this gap, this work focuses on the tabletop manipulation task and releases a simulation benchmark, LoHoRavens, which covers various long-horizon reasoning aspects spanning color, size, space, arithmetics and reference. Furthermore, there is a key modality bridging problem for long-horizon manipulation tasks with LLMs: how to incorporate the observation feedback during robot execution for the LLM's closed-loop planning, which is however less studied by prior work. We investigate two methods of bridging the modality gap: caption generation and learnable interface for incorporating explicit and implicit observation feedback to the LLM, respectively. These methods serve as the two baselines for our proposed benchmark. Experiments show that both methods struggle to solve some tasks, indicating long-horizon manipulation tasks are still challenging for current popular models. We expect the proposed public benchmark and baselines can help the community develop better models for long-horizon tabletop manipulation tasks.

We introduce LUMOS, a language-conditioned multi-task imitation learning framework for robotics. LUMOS learns skills by practicing them over many long-horizon rollouts in the latent space of a learned world model and transfers these skills zero-shot to a real robot. By learning on-policy in the latent space of the learned world model, our algorithm mitigates policy-induced distribution shift which most offline imitation learning methods suffer from. LUMOS learns from unstructured play data with fewer than 1% hindsight language annotations but is steerable with language commands at test time. We achieve this coherent long-horizon performance by combining latent planning with both image- and language-based hindsight goal relabeling during training, and by optimizing an intrinsic reward defined in the latent space of the world model over multiple time steps, effectively reducing covariate shift. In experiments on the difficult long-horizon CALVIN benchmark, LUMOS outperforms prior learning-based methods with comparable approaches on chained multi-task evaluations. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to learn a language-conditioned continuous visuomotor control for a real-world robot within an offline world model. Videos, dataset and code are available at http://lumos.cs.uni-freiburg.de.

Multimodal agentic pipelines are transforming human-computer interaction by enabling efficient and accessible automation of complex, real-world tasks. However, recent efforts have focused on short-horizon or general-purpose applications (e.g., mobile or desktop interfaces), leaving long-horizon automation for domain-specific systems, particularly in healthcare, largely unexplored. To address this, we introduce CareFlow, a high-quality human-annotated benchmark comprising complex, long-horizon software workflows across medical annotation tools, DICOM viewers, EHR systems, and laboratory information systems. On this benchmark, existing vision-language models (VLMs) perform poorly, struggling with long-horizon reasoning and multi-step interactions in medical contexts. To overcome this, we propose CarePilot, a multi-agent framework based on the actor-critic paradigm. The Actor integrates tool grounding with dual-memory mechanisms (long-term and short-term experience) to predict the next semantic action from the visual interface and system state. The Critic evaluates each action, updates memory based on observed effects, and either executes or provides corrective feedback to refine the workflow. Through iterative agentic simulation, the Actor learns to perform more robust and reasoning-aware predictions during inference. Our experiments show that CarePilot achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming strong closed-source and open-source multimodal baselines by approximately 15.26% and 3.38%, respectively, on our benchmark and out-of-distribution dataset.

Spatial reasoning is a critical capability for intelligent robots, yet current vision-language models (VLMs) still fall short of human-level performance in video-based spatial reasoning. This gap mainly stems from two challenges: a semantic-geometric misalignment that prevents consistent 3D understanding, and the absence of persistent memory to retain 3D representation and understanding over time. To address these limitations, we present VLM^2, a Vision-Language Model with persistent Memory for spatial reasoning with a view-consistent, 3D-aware representation purely from 2D video. Specifically, to enhance long-horizon reasoning, we incorporate a dual-memory module, consisting of a working memory that operates as a sliding window to focus on immediate context, and an episodic memory that consolidates and stores critical long-term information. This design enables efficient and long-horizon spatial reasoning with a fixed computational cost. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that VLM^2 achieves state-of-the-art performance among video-only models, significantly advancing the frontier of visual-spatial intelligence.

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

With the advancements in hardware, software, and large language model technologies, the interaction between humans and operating systems has evolved from the command-line interface to the rapidly emerging AI agent interactions. Building an operating system (OS) agent capable of executing user instructions and faithfully following user desires is becoming a reality. In this technical report, we present ColorAgent, an OS agent designed to engage in long-horizon, robust interactions with the environment while also enabling personalized and proactive user interaction. To enable long-horizon interactions with the environment, we enhance the model's capabilities through step-wise reinforcement learning and self-evolving training, while also developing a tailored multi-agent framework that ensures generality, consistency, and robustness. In terms of user interaction, we explore personalized user intent recognition and proactive engagement, positioning the OS agent not merely as an automation tool but as a warm, collaborative partner. We evaluate ColorAgent on the AndroidWorld and AndroidLab benchmarks, achieving success rates of 77.2% and 50.7%, respectively, establishing a new state of the art. Nonetheless, we note that current benchmarks are insufficient for a comprehensive evaluation of OS agents and propose further exploring directions in future work, particularly in the areas of evaluation paradigms, agent collaboration, and security. Our code is available at https://github.com/MadeAgents/mobile-use.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled agentic systems that can reason, plan, and act across complex tasks, but it remains unclear whether they can allocate resources effectively under uncertainty. Unlike short-horizon reactive decisions, allocation requires committing scarce resources over time while balancing competing objectives and preserving flexibility for future needs. We introduce EnterpriseArena, the first benchmark for evaluating agents on long-horizon enterprise resource allocation. It instantiates CFO-style decision-making in a 132-month enterprise simulator combining firm-level financial data, anonymized business documents, macroeconomic and industry signals, and expert-validated operating rules. The environment is partially observable and reveals the state only through budgeted organizational tools, forcing agents to trade off information acquisition against conserving scarce resources. Experiments on eleven advanced LLMs show that this setting remains highly challenging: only 16% of runs survive the full horizon, and larger models do not reliably outperform smaller ones. These results identify long-horizon resource allocation under uncertainty as a distinct capability gap for current LLM agents.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

A world model is an AI system that simulates how an environment evolves under actions, enabling planning through imagined futures rather than reactive perception. Current world models, however, suffer from visual conflation: the mistaken assumption that high-fidelity video generation implies an understanding of physical and causal dynamics. We show that while modern models excel at predicting pixels, they frequently violate invariant constraints, fail under intervention, and break down in safety-critical decision-making. This survey argues that visual realism is an unreliable proxy for world understanding. Instead, effective world models must encode causal structure, respect domain-specific constraints, and remain stable over long horizons. We propose a reframing of world models as actionable simulators rather than visual engines, emphasizing structured 4D interfaces, constraint-aware dynamics, and closed-loop evaluation. Using medical decision-making as an epistemic stress test, where trial-and-error is impossible and errors are irreversible, we demonstrate that a world model's value is determined not by how realistic its rollouts appear, but by its ability to support counterfactual reasoning, intervention planning, and robust long-horizon foresight.

Deep research agents have shown remarkable potential in handling long-horizon tasks. However, state-of-the-art performance typically relies on online reinforcement learning (RL), which is financially expensive due to extensive API calls. While offline training offers a more efficient alternative, its progress is hindered by the scarcity of high-quality research trajectories. In this paper, we demonstrate that expensive online reinforcement learning is not all you need to build powerful research agents. To bridge this gap, we introduce a fully open-source suite designed for effective offline training. Our core contributions include DeepForge, a ready-to-use task synthesis framework that generates large-scale research queries without heavy preprocessing; and a curated collection of 66k QA pairs, 33k SFT trajectories, and 21k DPO pairs. Leveraging these resources, we train OffSeeker (8B), a model developed entirely offline. Extensive evaluations across six benchmarks show that OffSeeker not only leads among similar-sized agents but also remains competitive with 30B-parameter systems trained via heavy online RL.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in financial reasoning and market understanding. Multi-agent LLM frameworks such as TradingAgent and FINMEM augment these models to long-horizon investment tasks, leveraging fundamental and sentiment-based inputs for strategic decision-making. However, such systems are ill-suited for the high-speed, precision-critical demands of High-Frequency Trading (HFT). HFT requires rapid, risk-aware decisions based on structured, short-horizon signals, including technical indicators, chart patterns, and trend-based features, distinct from the long-term semantic reasoning typical of traditional financial LLM applications. To this end, we introduce QuantAgent, the first multi-agent LLM framework explicitly designed for high-frequency algorithmic trading. The system decomposes trading into four specialized agents, Indicator, Pattern, Trend, and Risk, each equipped with domain-specific tools and structured reasoning capabilities to capture distinct aspects of market dynamics over short temporal windows. In zero-shot evaluations across ten financial instruments, including Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures, QuantAgent demonstrates superior performance in both predictive accuracy and cumulative return over 4-hour trading intervals, outperforming strong neural and rule-based baselines. Our findings suggest that combining structured financial priors with language-native reasoning unlocks new potential for traceable, real-time decision systems in high-frequency financial markets.

We present LingBot-World, an open-sourced world simulator stemming from video generation. Positioned as a top-tier world model, LingBot-World offers the following features. (1) It maintains high fidelity and robust dynamics in a broad spectrum of environments, including realism, scientific contexts, cartoon styles, and beyond. (2) It enables a minute-level horizon while preserving contextual consistency over time, which is also known as "long-term memory". (3) It supports real-time interactivity, achieving a latency of under 1 second when producing 16 frames per second. We provide public access to the code and model in an effort to narrow the divide between open-source and closed-source technologies. We believe our release will empower the community with practical applications across areas like content creation, gaming, and robot learning.