Daily Papers

Recently, deep learning-based algorithms are widely adopted due to the advantage of being able to establish anomaly detection models without or with minimal domain knowledge of the task. Instead, to train the artificial neural network more stable, it should be better to define the appropriate neural network structure or the loss function. For the training anomaly detection model, the mean squared error (MSE) function is adopted widely. On the other hand, the novel loss function, logarithmic mean squared error (LMSE), is proposed in this paper to train the neural network more stable. This study covers a variety of comparisons from mathematical comparisons, visualization in the differential domain for backpropagation, loss convergence in the training process, and anomaly detection performance. In an overall view, LMSE is superior to the existing MSE function in terms of strongness of loss convergence, anomaly detection performance. The LMSE function is expected to be applicable for training not only the anomaly detection model but also the general generative neural network.

Distributed Mean Estimation (DME), in which n clients communicate vectors to a parameter server that estimates their average, is a fundamental building block in communication-efficient federated learning. In this paper, we improve on previous DME techniques that achieve the optimal O(1/n) Normalized Mean Squared Error (NMSE) guarantee by asymptotically improving the complexity for either encoding or decoding (or both). To achieve this, we formalize the problem in a novel way that allows us to use off-the-shelf mathematical solvers to design the quantization.

Obesity, the leading cause of many non-communicable diseases, occurs mainly for eating more than our body requirements and lack of proper activity. So, being healthy requires heathy diet plans, especially for patients with comorbidities. But it is difficult to figure out the exact quantity of each nutrient because nutrients requirement varies based on physical and disease conditions. In our study we proposed a novel machine learning based system to predict the amount of nutrients one individual requires for being healthy. We applied different machine learning algorithms: linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM on fluid and 3 other major micronutrients: carbohydrate, protein, fat consumption prediction. We achieved high accuracy with low root mean square error (RMSE) by using linear regression in fluid prediction, random forest in carbohydrate prediction and LightGBM in protein and fat prediction. We believe our diet recommender system, OBESEYE, is the only of its kind which recommends diet with the consideration of comorbidities and physical conditions and promote encouragement to get rid of obesity.

Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) is critical for numerous real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, financial forecasting, and disease propagation analysis. LTSF requires capturing long-range dependencies between inputs and outputs, which poses significant challenges due to complex temporal dynamics and high computational demands. While linear models reduce model complexity by employing frequency domain decomposition, current approaches often assume stationarity and filter out high-frequency components that may contain crucial short-term fluctuations. In this paper, we introduce MMFNet, a novel model designed to enhance long-term multivariate forecasting by leveraging a multi-scale masked frequency decomposition approach. MMFNet captures fine, intermediate, and coarse-grained temporal patterns by converting time series into frequency segments at varying scales while employing a learnable mask to filter out irrelevant components adaptively. Extensive experimentation with benchmark datasets shows that MMFNet not only addresses the limitations of the existing methods but also consistently achieves good performance. Specifically, MMFNet achieves up to 6.0% reductions in the Mean Squared Error (MSE) compared to state-of-the-art models designed for multivariate forecasting tasks.

Image denoising is a well-known and well studied problem, commonly targeting a minimization of the mean squared error (MSE) between the outcome and the original image. Unfortunately, especially for severe noise levels, such Minimum MSE (MMSE) solutions may lead to blurry output images. In this work we propose a novel stochastic denoising approach that produces viable and high perceptual quality results, while maintaining a small MSE. Our method employs Langevin dynamics that relies on a repeated application of any given MMSE denoiser, obtaining the reconstructed image by effectively sampling from the posterior distribution. Due to its stochasticity, the proposed algorithm can produce a variety of high-quality outputs for a given noisy input, all shown to be legitimate denoising results. In addition, we present an extension of our algorithm for handling the inpainting problem, recovering missing pixels while removing noise from partially given data.

The commitment to single-precision floating-point arithmetic is widespread in the deep learning community. To evaluate whether this commitment is justified, the influence of computing precision (single and double precision) on the optimization performance of the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method (a second-order optimization algorithm) and RMSprop (a first-order algorithm) has been investigated. Tests of neural networks with one to five fully connected hidden layers and moderate or strong nonlinearity with up to 4 million network parameters have been optimized for Mean Square Error (MSE). The training tasks have been set up so that their MSE minimum was known to be zero. Computing experiments have disclosed that single-precision can keep up (with superlinear convergence) with double-precision as long as line search finds an improvement. First-order methods such as RMSprop do not benefit from double precision. However, for moderately nonlinear tasks, CG is clearly superior. For strongly nonlinear tasks, both algorithm classes find only solutions fairly poor in terms of mean square error as related to the output variance. CG with double floating-point precision is superior whenever the solutions have the potential to be useful for the application goal.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

When fitting the learning data of an individual to algorithm-like learning models, the observations are so dependent and non-stationary that one may wonder what the classical Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) could do, even if it is the usual tool applied to experimental cognition. Our objective in this work is to show that the estimation of the learning rate cannot be efficient if the learning rate is constant in the classical Exp3 (Exponential weights for Exploration and Exploitation) algorithm. Secondly, we show that if the learning rate decreases polynomially with the sample size, then the prediction error and in some cases the estimation error of the MLE satisfy bounds in probability that decrease at a polynomial rate.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

During the radiotherapy treatment of patients with lung cancer, the radiation delivered to healthy tissue around the tumor needs to be minimized, which is difficult because of respiratory motion and the latency of linear accelerator systems. In the proposed study, we first use the Lucas-Kanade pyramidal optical flow algorithm to perform deformable image registration of chest computed tomography scan images of four patients with lung cancer. We then track three internal points close to the lung tumor based on the previously computed deformation field and predict their position with a recurrent neural network (RNN) trained using real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) and gradient clipping. The breathing data is quite regular, sampled at approximately 2.5Hz, and includes artificial drift in the spine direction. The amplitude of the motion of the tracked points ranged from 12.0mm to 22.7mm. Finally, we propose a simple method for recovering and predicting 3D tumor images from the tracked points and the initial tumor image based on a linear correspondence model and Nadaraya-Watson non-linear regression. The root-mean-square error, maximum error, and jitter corresponding to the RNN prediction on the test set were smaller than the same performance measures obtained with linear prediction and least mean squares (LMS). In particular, the maximum prediction error associated with the RNN, equal to 1.51mm, is respectively 16.1% and 5.0% lower than the maximum error associated with linear prediction and LMS. The average prediction time per time step with RTRL is equal to 119ms, which is less than the 400ms marker position sampling time. The tumor position in the predicted images appears visually correct, which is confirmed by the high mean cross-correlation between the original and predicted images, equal to 0.955.

The Neural Arithmetic Logic Unit (NALU) is a neural network layer that can learn exact arithmetic operations between the elements of a hidden state. The goal of NALU is to learn perfect extrapolation, which requires learning the exact underlying logic of an unknown arithmetic problem. Evaluating the performance of the NALU is non-trivial as one arithmetic problem might have many solutions. As a consequence, single-instance MSE has been used to evaluate and compare performance between models. However, it can be hard to interpret what magnitude of MSE represents a correct solution and models sensitivity to initialization. We propose using a success-criterion to measure if and when a model converges. Using a success-criterion we can summarize success-rate over many initialization seeds and calculate confidence intervals. We contribute a generalized version of the previous arithmetic benchmark to measure models sensitivity under different conditions. This is, to our knowledge, the first extensive evaluation with respect to convergence of the NALU and its sub-units. Using a success-criterion to summarize 4800 experiments we find that consistently learning arithmetic extrapolation is challenging, in particular for multiplication.

The stock market is extremely difficult to predict in the short term due to high market volatility, changes caused by news, and the non-linear nature of the financial time series. This research proposes a novel framework for improving minute-level prediction accuracy using semantic sentiment scores from top ten different large language models (LLMs) combined with minute interval intraday stock price data. We systematically constructed a time-aligned dataset of AAPL news articles and 1-minute Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock prices for the dates of April 4 to May 2, 2025. The sentiment analysis was achieved using the DeepSeek-V3, GPT variants, LLaMA, Claude, Gemini, Qwen, and Mistral models through their APIs. Each article obtained sentiment scores from all ten LLMs, which were scaled to a [0, 1] range and combined with prices and technical indicators like RSI, ROC, and Bollinger Band Width. Two state-of-the-art such as Reformer and Mamba were trained separately on the dataset using the sentiment scores produced by each LLM as input. Hyper parameters were optimized by means of Optuna and were evaluated through a 3-day evaluation period. Reformer had mean squared error (MSE) or the evaluation metrics, and it should be noted that Mamba performed not only faster but also better than Reformer for every LLM across the 10 LLMs tested. Mamba performed best with LLaMA 3.3--70B, with the lowest error of 0.137. While Reformer could capture broader trends within the data, the model appeared to over smooth sudden changes by the LLMs. This study highlights the potential of integrating LLM-based semantic analysis paired with efficient temporal modeling to enhance real-time financial forecasting.

A popular approach to sample a diffusion-based generative model is to solve an ordinary differential equation (ODE). In existing samplers, the coefficients of the ODE solvers are pre-determined by the ODE formulation, the reverse discrete timesteps, and the employed ODE methods. In this paper, we consider accelerating several popular ODE-based sampling processes (including EDM, DDIM, and DPM-Solver) by optimizing certain coefficients via improved integration approximation (IIA). We propose to minimize, for each time step, a mean squared error (MSE) function with respect to the selected coefficients. The MSE is constructed by applying the original ODE solver for a set of fine-grained timesteps, which in principle provides a more accurate integration approximation in predicting the next diffusion state. The proposed IIA technique does not require any change of a pre-trained model, and only introduces a very small computational overhead for solving a number of quadratic optimization problems. Extensive experiments show that considerably better FID scores can be achieved by using IIA-EDM, IIA-DDIM, and IIA-DPM-Solver than the original counterparts when the neural function evaluation (NFE) is small (i.e., less than 25).

This study concentrates on evaluating the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare, with a specific focus on their application in personal anomalous health monitoring. Our research primarily investigates the capabilities of LLMs in interpreting and analyzing physiological data obtained from FDA-approved devices. We conducted an extensive analysis using anomalous physiological data gathered in a simulated low-air-pressure plateau environment. This allowed us to assess the precision and reliability of LLMs in understanding and evaluating users' health status with notable specificity. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit exceptional performance in determining medical indicators, including a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 1 beat per minute for heart rate and less than 1% for oxygen saturation (SpO2). Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for these evaluations remained below 1%, with the overall accuracy of health assessments surpassing 85%. In image analysis tasks, such as interpreting photoplethysmography (PPG) data, our specially adapted GPT models demonstrated remarkable proficiency, achieving less than 1 bpm error in cycle count and 7.28 MAE for heart rate estimation. This study highlights LLMs' dual role as health data analysis tools and pivotal elements in advanced AI health assistants, offering personalized health insights and recommendations within the future health assistant framework.

A recent line of research on spoken language assessment (SLA) employs neural models such as BERT and wav2vec 2.0 (W2V) to evaluate speaking proficiency across linguistic and acoustic modalities. Although both models effectively capture features relevant to oral competence, each exhibits modality-specific limitations. BERT-based methods rely on ASR transcripts, which often fail to capture prosodic and phonetic cues for SLA. In contrast, W2V-based methods excel at modeling acoustic features but lack semantic interpretability. To overcome these limitations, we propose a system that integrates W2V with Phi-4 multimodal large language model (MLLM) through a score fusion strategy. The proposed system achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.375 on the official test set of the Speak & Improve Challenge 2025, securing second place in the competition. For comparison, the RMSEs of the top-ranked, third-ranked, and official baseline systems are 0.364, 0.384, and 0.444, respectively.

We present ModularSubsetSelection (MSS), a new algorithm for locally differentially private (LDP) frequency estimation. Given a universe of size k and n users, our varepsilon-LDP mechanism encodes each input via a Residue Number System (RNS) over ell pairwise-coprime moduli m_0, ldots, m_{ell-1}, and reports a randomly chosen index j in [ell] along with the perturbed residue using the statistically optimal SubsetSelection (SS) (Wang et al. 2016). This design reduces the user communication cost from Θbigl(ωlog_2(k/ω)bigr) bits required by standard SS (with ωapprox k/(e^varepsilon+1)) down to lceil log_2 ell rceil + lceil log_2 m_j rceil bits, where m_j < k. Server-side decoding runs in Θ(n + r k ell) time, where r is the number of LSMR (Fong and Saunders 2011) iterations. In practice, with well-conditioned moduli (i.e., constant r and ell = Θ(log k)), this becomes Θ(n + k log k). We prove that MSS achieves worst-case MSE within a constant factor of state-of-the-art protocols such as SS and ProjectiveGeometryResponse (PGR) (Feldman et al. 2022) while avoiding the algebraic prerequisites and dynamic-programming decoder required by PGR. Empirically, MSS matches the estimation accuracy of SS, PGR, and RAPPOR (Erlingsson, Pihur, and Korolova 2014) across realistic (k, varepsilon) settings, while offering faster decoding than PGR and shorter user messages than SS. Lastly, by sampling from multiple moduli and reporting only a single perturbed residue, MSS achieves the lowest reconstruction-attack success rate among all evaluated LDP protocols.

The volatility and complex dynamics of cryptocurrency markets present unique challenges for accurate price forecasting. This research proposes a hybrid deep learning and machine learning model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for cryptocurrency price prediction. The LSTM component captures temporal dependencies in historical price data, while XGBoost enhances prediction by modeling nonlinear relationships with auxiliary features such as sentiment scores and macroeconomic indicators. The model is evaluated on historical datasets of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Litecoin, incorporating both global and localized exchange data. Comparative analysis using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Min-Max Normalized Root Mean Square Error (MinMax RMSE) demonstrates that the LSTM+XGBoost hybrid consistently outperforms standalone models and traditional forecasting methods. This study underscores the potential of hybrid architectures in financial forecasting and provides insights into model adaptability across different cryptocurrencies and market contexts.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

A key challenge of modern machine learning systems is to achieve Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization -- generalizing to target data whose distribution differs from that of source data. Despite its significant importance, the fundamental question of ``what are the most effective algorithms for OOD generalization'' remains open even under the standard setting of covariate shift. This paper addresses this fundamental question by proving that, surprisingly, classical Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) purely using source data (without any modification) achieves the minimax optimality for covariate shift under the well-specified setting. That is, no algorithm performs better than MLE in this setting (up to a constant factor), justifying MLE is all you need. Our result holds for a very rich class of parametric models, and does not require any boundedness condition on the density ratio. We illustrate the wide applicability of our framework by instantiating it to three concrete examples -- linear regression, logistic regression, and phase retrieval. This paper further complement the study by proving that, under the misspecified setting, MLE is no longer the optimal choice, whereas Maximum Weighted Likelihood Estimator (MWLE) emerges as minimax optimal in certain scenarios.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a common approach to compress a teacher model to reduce its inference cost and memory footprint, by training a smaller student model. However, in the context of autoregressive language models (LMs), we empirically find that larger teacher LMs might dramatically result in a poorer student. In response to this problem, we conduct a series of analyses and reveal that different tokens have different teaching modes, neglecting which will lead to performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose a simple yet effective adaptive teaching approach (ATKD) to improve the KD. The core of ATKD is to reduce rote learning and make teaching more diverse and flexible. Extensive experiments on 8 LM tasks show that, with the help of ATKD, various baseline KD methods can achieve consistent and significant performance gains (up to +3.04% average score) across all model types and sizes. More encouragingly, ATKD can improve the student model generalization effectively.

We consider the problem of learning a target function corresponding to a single hidden layer neural network, with a quadratic activation function after the first layer, and random weights. We consider the asymptotic limit where the input dimension and the network width are proportionally large. Recent work [Cui & al '23] established that linear regression provides Bayes-optimal test error to learn such a function when the number of available samples is only linear in the dimension. That work stressed the open challenge of theoretically analyzing the optimal test error in the more interesting regime where the number of samples is quadratic in the dimension. In this paper, we solve this challenge for quadratic activations and derive a closed-form expression for the Bayes-optimal test error. We also provide an algorithm, that we call GAMP-RIE, which combines approximate message passing with rotationally invariant matrix denoising, and that asymptotically achieves the optimal performance. Technically, our result is enabled by establishing a link with recent works on optimal denoising of extensive-rank matrices and on the ellipsoid fitting problem. We further show empirically that, in the absence of noise, randomly-initialized gradient descent seems to sample the space of weights, leading to zero training loss, and averaging over initialization leads to a test error equal to the Bayes-optimal one.

Diffusion-based language models offer a compelling alternative to autoregressive (AR) models by enabling parallel and controllable generation. Among this family of models, Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) achieve the strongest performance but still underperform AR models in perplexity and lack key inference-time efficiency features--most notably, KV caching. In this work, we introduce Eso-LMs, a new family of models that fuses AR and MDM paradigms, enabling smooth interpolation between their perplexities while overcoming their respective limitations. Eso-LMs set a new state of the art on standard language modeling benchmarks. Crucially, we are the **first to introduce KV caching for MDMs** while preserving parallel generation, significantly improving inference efficiency. Combined with an optimized sampling schedule, our method achieves up to **65x** faster inference than standard MDMs and **4x** faster inference than prior semi-autoregressive approaches. We provide the code and model checkpoints on the project page: [http://s-sahoo.github.io/Eso-LMs](http://s-sahoo.github.io/Eso-LMs)

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved significant advancements across various domains, and corresponding evaluation benchmarks have been continuously refined and improved. In this process, benchmarks in the scientific domain have played an important role in assessing the reasoning capabilities of MLLMs. However, existing benchmarks still face three key challenges: 1) Insufficient evaluation of models' reasoning abilities in multilingual scenarios; 2) Inadequate assessment of MLLMs' comprehensive modality coverage; 3) Lack of fine-grained annotation of scientific knowledge points. To address these gaps, we propose MME-SCI, a comprehensive and challenging benchmark. We carefully collected 1,019 high-quality question-answer pairs, which involve 3 distinct evaluation modes. These pairs cover four subjects, namely mathematics, physics, chemistry, and biology, and support five languages: Chinese, English, French, Spanish, and Japanese. We conducted extensive experiments on 16 open-source models and 4 closed-source models, and the results demonstrate that MME-SCI is widely challenging for existing MLLMs. For instance, under the Image-only evaluation mode, o4-mini achieved accuracy of only 52.11%, 24.73%, 36.57%, and 29.80% in mathematics, physics, chemistry, and biology, respectively, indicating a significantly higher difficulty level compared to existing benchmarks. More importantly, using MME-SCI's multilingual and fine-grained knowledge attributes, we analyzed existing models' performance in depth and identified their weaknesses in specific domains. The Data and Evaluation Code are available at https://github.com/JCruan519/MME-SCI.

Gradient descent has proven to be a powerful and effective technique for optimization in numerous machine learning applications. Recent advances in computational neuroscience have shown that learning in standard gradient descent optimization formulation is not consistent with learning in biological systems. This has opened up interesting avenues for building biologically inspired learning techniques. One such approach is inspired by Dale's law, which states that inhibitory and excitatory synapses do not swap roles during the course of learning. The resulting exponential gradient descent optimization scheme leads to log-normally distributed synaptic weights. Interestingly, the density that satisfies the Fokker-Planck equation corresponding to the stochastic differential equation (SDE) with geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is the log-normal density. Leveraging this connection, we start with the SDE governing geometric Brownian motion, and show that discretizing the corresponding reverse-time SDE yields a multiplicative update rule, which surprisingly, coincides with the sampling equivalent of the exponential gradient descent update founded on Dale's law. Furthermore, we propose a new formalism for multiplicative denoising score-matching, subsuming the loss function proposed by Hyvaerinen for non-negative data. Indeed, log-normally distributed data is positive and the proposed score-matching formalism turns out to be a natural fit. This allows for training of score-based models for image data and results in a novel multiplicative update scheme for sample generation starting from a log-normal density. Experimental results on MNIST, Fashion MNIST, and Kuzushiji datasets demonstrate generative capability of the new scheme. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first instance of a biologically inspired generative model employing multiplicative updates, founded on geometric Brownian motion.

Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms are widely used in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their performance is heavily influenced by the size of the neural network. While in supervised learning, the regime of over-parameterization and its benefits are well understood, the situation in RL is much less clear. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of the influence of network size and l_2-regularization on performance. We identify the ratio between the number of parameters and the number of visited states as a crucial factor and define over-parameterization as the regime when it is larger than one. Furthermore, we observe a double descent phenomenon, i.e., a sudden drop in performance around the parameter/state ratio of one. Leveraging random features and the lazy training regime, we study the regularized Least-Square Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm in an asymptotic regime, as both the number of parameters and states go to infinity, maintaining a constant ratio. We derive deterministic limits of both the empirical and the true Mean-Squared Bellman Error (MSBE) that feature correction terms responsible for the double descent. Correction terms vanish when the l_2-regularization is increased or the number of unvisited states goes to zero. Numerical experiments with synthetic and small real-world environments closely match the theoretical predictions.

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

Guided by the belief of the scaling law, large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in recent years. However, scaling law only gives a qualitative estimation of loss, which is influenced by various factors such as model architectures, data distributions, tokenizers, and computation precision. Thus, estimating the real performance of LLMs with different training settings rather than loss may be quite useful in practical development. In this article, we present an empirical equation named "Performance Law" to directly predict the MMLU score of an LLM, which is a widely used metric to indicate the general capability of LLMs in real-world conversations and applications. Based on only a few key hyperparameters of the LLM architecture and the size of training data, we obtain a quite accurate MMLU prediction of various LLMs with diverse sizes and architectures developed by different organizations in different years. Performance law can be used to guide the choice of LLM architecture and the effective allocation of computational resources without extensive experiments.

This paper presents the LLM-ADE framework, a novel methodology for continued pre-training of large language models (LLMs) that addresses the challenges of catastrophic forgetting and double descent. LLM-ADE employs dynamic architectural adjustments, including selective block freezing and expansion, tailored to specific datasets. This strategy enhances model adaptability to new data while preserving previously acquired knowledge. We demonstrate LLM-ADE's effectiveness on the TinyLlama model across various general knowledge benchmarks, showing significant performance improvements without the drawbacks of traditional continuous training methods. This approach promises a more versatile and robust way to keep LLMs current and efficient in real-world applications.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Recently, learning-based models have enhanced the performance of single-image super-resolution (SISR). However, applying SISR successively to each video frame leads to a lack of temporal coherency. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) outperform traditional approaches in terms of image quality metrics such as peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR) and structural similarity (SSIM). However, generative adversarial networks (GANs) offer a competitive advantage by being able to mitigate the issue of a lack of finer texture details, usually seen with CNNs when super-resolving at large upscaling factors. We present iSeeBetter, a novel GAN-based spatio-temporal approach to video super-resolution (VSR) that renders temporally consistent super-resolution videos. iSeeBetter extracts spatial and temporal information from the current and neighboring frames using the concept of recurrent back-projection networks as its generator. Furthermore, to improve the "naturality" of the super-resolved image while eliminating artifacts seen with traditional algorithms, we utilize the discriminator from super-resolution generative adversarial network (SRGAN). Although mean squared error (MSE) as a primary loss-minimization objective improves PSNR/SSIM, these metrics may not capture fine details in the image resulting in misrepresentation of perceptual quality. To address this, we use a four-fold (MSE, perceptual, adversarial, and total-variation (TV)) loss function. Our results demonstrate that iSeeBetter offers superior VSR fidelity and surpasses state-of-the-art performance.

Asphalt concrete's (AC) durability and maintenance demands are strongly influenced by its fatigue life. Traditional methods for determining this characteristic are both resource-intensive and time-consuming. This study employs artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict AC fatigue life, focusing on the impact of strain level, binder content, and air-void content. Leveraging a substantial dataset, we tailored our models to effectively handle the wide range of fatigue life data, typically represented on a logarithmic scale. The mean square logarithmic error was utilized as the loss function to enhance prediction accuracy across all levels of fatigue life. Through comparative analysis of various hyperparameters, we developed a machine-learning model that captures the complex relationships within the data. Our findings demonstrate that higher binder content significantly enhances fatigue life, while the influence of air-void content is more variable, depending on binder levels. Most importantly, this study provides insights into the intricacies of using ANNs for modeling, showcasing their potential utility with larger datasets. The codes developed and the data used in this study are provided as open source on a GitHub repository, with a link included in the paper for full access.

Fine-tuning is a crucial process for adapting large language models (LLMs) to diverse applications. In certain scenarios, such as multi-tenant serving, deploying multiple LLMs becomes necessary to meet complex demands. Recent studies suggest decomposing a fine-tuned LLM into a base model and corresponding delta weights, which are then compressed using low-rank or low-bit approaches to reduce costs. In this work, we observe that existing low-rank and low-bit compression methods can significantly harm the model performance for task-specific fine-tuned LLMs (e.g., WizardMath for math problems). Motivated by the long-tail distribution of singular values in the delta weights, we propose a delta quantization approach using mixed-precision. This method employs higher-bit representation for singular vectors corresponding to larger singular values. We evaluate our approach on various fine-tuned LLMs, including math LLMs, code LLMs, chat LLMs, and even VLMs. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach performs comparably to full fine-tuned LLMs, surpassing both low-rank and low-bit baselines by a considerable margin. Additionally, we show that our method is compatible with various backbone LLMs, such as Llama-2, Llama-3, and Mistral, highlighting its generalizability.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

Large language models (LMs) have been shown to memorize parts of their training data, and when prompted appropriately, they will emit the memorized training data verbatim. This is undesirable because memorization violates privacy (exposing user data), degrades utility (repeated easy-to-memorize text is often low quality), and hurts fairness (some texts are memorized over others). We describe three log-linear relationships that quantify the degree to which LMs emit memorized training data. Memorization significantly grows as we increase (1) the capacity of a model, (2) the number of times an example has been duplicated, and (3) the number of tokens of context used to prompt the model. Surprisingly, we find the situation becomes more complicated when generalizing these results across model families. On the whole, we find that memorization in LMs is more prevalent than previously believed and will likely get worse as models continues to scale, at least without active mitigations.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in problem-solving. However, their proficiency in solving mathematical problems remains inadequate. We propose MathScale, a simple and scalable method to create high-quality mathematical reasoning data using frontier LLMs (e.g., {\tt GPT-3.5}). Inspired by the cognitive mechanism in human mathematical learning, it first extracts topics and knowledge points from seed math questions and then build a concept graph, which is subsequently used to generate new math questions. MathScale exhibits effective scalability along the size axis of the math dataset that we generate. As a result, we create a mathematical reasoning dataset (MathScaleQA) containing two million math question-answer pairs. To evaluate mathematical reasoning abilities of LLMs comprehensively, we construct {\sc MwpBench}, a benchmark of Math Word Problems, which is a collection of ten datasets (including GSM8K and MATH) covering K-12, college, and competition level math problems. We apply MathScaleQA to fine-tune open-source LLMs (e.g., LLaMA-2 and Mistral), resulting in significantly improved capabilities in mathematical reasoning. Evaluated on {\sc MwpBench}, MathScale-7B achieves state-of-the-art performance across all datasets, surpassing its best peers of equivalent size by 42.9\% in micro average accuracy and 43.7\% in macro average accuracy, respectively.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

We estimate ([M/H], [alpha/M]) for 48 million giants and dwarfs in low-dust extinction regions from the Gaia DR3 XP spectra by using tree-based machine-learning models trained on APOGEE DR17 and metal-poor star sample from Li et al. The root mean square error of our estimation is 0.0890 dex for [M/H] and 0.0436 dex for [alpha/M], when we evaluate our models on the test data that are not used in training the models. Because the training data is dominated by giants, our estimation is most reliable for giants. The high-[alpha/M] stars and low-[alpha/M] stars selected by our ([M/H], [alpha/M]) show different kinematical properties for giants and low-temperature dwarfs. We further investigate how our machine-learning models extract information on ([M/H], [alpha/M]). Intriguingly, we find that our models seem to extract information on [alpha/M] from Na D lines (589 nm) and Mg I line (516 nm). This result is understandable given the observed correlation between Na and Mg abundances in the literature. The catalog of ([M/H], [alpha/M]) as well as their associated uncertainties are publicly available online.

With the recent emergence of mixed precision hardware, there has been a renewed interest in its use for solving numerical linear algebra problems fast and accurately. The solution of least squares (LS) problems min_x|b-Ax|_2, where A in R^{mtimes n}, arise in numerous application areas. Overdetermined standard least squares problems can be solved by using mixed precision within the iterative refinement method of Björck, which transforms the least squares problem into an (m+n)times(m+n) ''augmented'' system. It has recently been shown that mixed precision GMRES-based iterative refinement can also be used, in an approach termed GMRES-LSIR. In practice, we often encounter types of least squares problems beyond standard least squares, including weighted least squares (WLS), min_x|D^{1/2}(b-Ax)|_2, where D^{1/2} is a diagonal matrix of weights. In this paper, we discuss a mixed precision FGMRES-WLSIR algorithm for solving WLS problems using two different preconditioners.

Bessel functions are critical in scientific computing for applications such as machine learning, protein structure modeling, and robotics. However, currently, available routines lack precision or fail for certain input ranges, such as when the order v is large, and GPU-specific implementations are limited. We address the precision limitations of current numerical implementations while dramatically improving the runtime. We propose two novel algorithms for computing the logarithm of modified Bessel functions of the first and second kinds by computing intermediate values on a logarithmic scale. Our algorithms are robust and never have issues with underflows or overflows while having relative errors on the order of machine precision, even for inputs where existing libraries fail. In C++/CUDA, our algorithms have median and maximum speedups of 45x and 6150x for GPU and 17x and 3403x for CPU, respectively, over the ranges of inputs and third-party libraries tested. Compared to SciPy, the algorithms have median and maximum speedups of 77x and 300x for GPU and 35x and 98x for CPU, respectively, over the tested inputs. The ability to robustly compute a solution and the low relative errors allow us to fit von Mises-Fisher, vMF, distributions to high-dimensional neural network features. This is, e.g., relevant for uncertainty quantification in metric learning. We obtain image feature data by processing CIFAR10 training images with the convolutional layers of a pre-trained ResNet50. We successfully fit vMF distributions to 2048-, 8192-, and 32768-dimensional image feature data using our algorithms. Our approach provides fast and accurate results while existing implementations in SciPy and mpmath fail to fit successfully. Our approach is readily implementable on GPUs, and we provide a fast open-source implementation alongside this paper.

This study explores enhancing grammatical error correction (GEC) through artificial error generation (AEG) using language models (LMs). Specifically, we fine-tune Llama 2-based LMs for error generation and find that this approach yields synthetic errors akin to human errors. Next, we train GEC Llama models with the help of these artificial errors and outperform previous state-of-the-art error correction models, with gains ranging between 0.8 and 6 F0.5 points across all tested languages (German, Ukrainian, and Estonian). Moreover, we demonstrate that generating errors by fine-tuning smaller sequence-to-sequence models and prompting large commercial LMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) also results in synthetic errors beneficially affecting error generation models.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

Large language models (LLMs) have pushed the limits of natural language understanding and exhibited excellent problem-solving ability. Despite the great success, most existing open-source LLMs (\eg, LLaMA-2) are still far away from satisfactory for solving mathematical problem due to the complex reasoning procedures. To bridge this gap, we propose MetaMath, a fine-tuned language model that specializes in mathematical reasoning. Specifically, we start by bootstrapping mathematical questions by rewriting the question from multiple perspectives without extra knowledge, which results in a new dataset called {MetaMathQA}. Then we fine-tune the LLaMA-2 models on MetaMathQA. Experimental results on two popular benchmarks (\ie, GSM8K and MATH) for mathematical reasoning demonstrate that MetaMath outperforms a suite of open-source LLMs by a significant margin. Our MetaMath-7B model achieves 66.4% on GSM8K and 19.4% on MATH, exceeding the state-of-the-art models of the same size by 11.5% and 8.7%. Particularly, {MetaMath-70B} achieves an accuracy of 82.3% on {GSM8K}, slightly better than {GPT-3.5-Turbo}. We release the {MetaMathQA} dataset, the {MetaMath} models with different model sizes and the training code for public use.

Students frequently make mistakes while solving mathematical problems, and traditional error correction methods are both time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper introduces an innovative Virtual AI Teacher system designed to autonomously analyze and correct student Errors (VATE). Leveraging advanced large language models (LLMs), the system uses student drafts as a primary source for error analysis, which enhances understanding of the student's learning process. It incorporates sophisticated prompt engineering and maintains an error pool to reduce computational overhead. The AI-driven system also features a real-time dialogue component for efficient student interaction. Our approach demonstrates significant advantages over traditional and machine learning-based error correction methods, including reduced educational costs, high scalability, and superior generalizability. The system has been deployed on the Squirrel AI learning platform for elementary mathematics education, where it achieves 78.3\% accuracy in error analysis and shows a marked improvement in student learning efficiency. Satisfaction surveys indicate a strong positive reception, highlighting the system's potential to transform educational practices.

During lung radiotherapy, the position of infrared reflective objects on the chest can be recorded to estimate the tumor location. However, radiotherapy systems have a latency inherent to robot control limitations that impedes the radiation delivery precision. Prediction with online learning of recurrent neural networks (RNN) allows for adaptation to non-stationary respiratory signals, but classical methods such as RTRL and truncated BPTT are respectively slow and biased. This study investigates the capabilities of unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO) to forecast respiratory motion and enhance safety in lung radiotherapy. We used 9 observation records of the 3D position of 3 external markers on the chest and abdomen of healthy individuals breathing during intervals from 73s to 222s. The sampling frequency was 10Hz, and the amplitudes of the recorded trajectories range from 6mm to 40mm in the superior-inferior direction. We forecast the 3D location of each marker simultaneously with a horizon value between 0.1s and 2.0s, using an RNN trained with UORO. We compare its performance with an RNN trained with RTRL, LMS, and offline linear regression. We provide closed-form expressions for quantities involved in the loss gradient calculation in UORO, thereby making its implementation efficient. Training and cross-validation were performed during the first minute of each sequence. On average over the horizon values considered and the 9 sequences, UORO achieves the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) error and maximum error among the compared algorithms. These errors are respectively equal to 1.3mm and 8.8mm, and the prediction time per time step was lower than 2.8ms (Dell Intel core i9-9900K 3.60 GHz). Linear regression has the lowest RMS error for the horizon values 0.1s and 0.2s, followed by LMS for horizon values between 0.3s and 0.5s, and UORO for horizon values greater than 0.6s.

Diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) are trained flexibly to model extreme dependence in the data distribution; however, how to best utilize this information at inference time remains an open problem. In this work, we uncover an interesting property of these models: dLLMs trained on textual data implicitly learn a mixture of semi-autoregressive experts, where different generation orders reveal different specialized behaviors. We show that committing to any single, fixed inference time schedule, a common practice, collapses performance by failing to leverage this latent ensemble. To address this, we introduce HEX (Hidden semiautoregressive EXperts for test-time scaling), a training-free inference method that ensembles across heterogeneous block schedules. By doing a majority vote over diverse block-sized generation paths, HEX robustly avoids failure modes associated with any single fixed schedule. On reasoning benchmarks such as GSM8K, it boosts accuracy by up to 3.56X (from 24.72% to 88.10%), outperforming top-K margin inference and specialized fine-tuned methods like GRPO, without additional training. HEX even yields significant gains on MATH benchmark from 16.40% to 40.00%, scientific reasoning on ARC-C from 54.18% to 87.80%, and TruthfulQA from 28.36% to 57.46%. Our results establish a new paradigm for test-time scaling in diffusion-based LLMs (dLLMs), revealing that the sequence in which masking is performed plays a critical role in determining performance during inference.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.

The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence in telecommunications has raised interest in the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to address domain-specific, mathematically intensive tasks. Although recent advancements have improved the performance of LLMs in general mathematical reasoning, their effectiveness within specialized domains, such as signal processing, network optimization, and performance analysis, remains largely unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce TeleMath, the first benchmark dataset specifically designed to evaluate LLM performance in solving mathematical problems with numerical solutions in the telecommunications domain. Comprising 500 question-answer (QnA) pairs, TeleMath covers a wide spectrum of topics in the telecommunications field. This paper outlines the proposed QnAs generation pipeline, starting from a selected seed of problems crafted by Subject Matter Experts. The evaluation of a wide range of open-source LLMs reveals that best performance on TeleMath is achieved by recent models explicitly designed for mathematical or logical reasoning. In contrast, general-purpose models, even those with a large number of parameters, often struggle with these challenges. We have released the dataset and the evaluation code to ease result reproducibility and support future research.

Large-scale language models (LLMs) has shown remarkable capability in various of Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks and attracted lots of attention recently. However, some studies indicated that large language models fail to achieve promising result beyond the state-of-the-art models in English grammatical error correction (GEC) tasks. In this report, we aim to explore the how large language models perform on Chinese grammatical error correction tasks and provide guidance for future work. We conduct experiments with 3 different LLMs of different model scale on 4 Chinese GEC dataset. Our experimental results indicate that the performances of LLMs on automatic evaluation metrics falls short of the previous sota models because of the problem of over-correction. Furthermore, we also discover notable variations in the performance of LLMs when evaluated on different data distributions. Our findings demonstrates that further investigation is required for the application of LLMs on Chinese GEC task.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked interest in their formal reasoning capabilities, particularly in mathematics. The GSM8K benchmark is widely used to assess the mathematical reasoning of models on grade-school-level questions. While the performance of LLMs on GSM8K has significantly improved in recent years, it remains unclear whether their mathematical reasoning capabilities have genuinely advanced, raising questions about the reliability of the reported metrics. To address these concerns, we conduct a large-scale study on several SOTA open and closed models. To overcome the limitations of existing evaluations, we introduce GSM-Symbolic, an improved benchmark created from symbolic templates that allow for the generation of a diverse set of questions. GSM-Symbolic enables more controllable evaluations, providing key insights and more reliable metrics for measuring the reasoning capabilities of models.Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit noticeable variance when responding to different instantiations of the same question. Specifically, the performance of all models declines when only the numerical values in the question are altered in the GSM-Symbolic benchmark. Furthermore, we investigate the fragility of mathematical reasoning in these models and show that their performance significantly deteriorates as the number of clauses in a question increases. We hypothesize that this decline is because current LLMs cannot perform genuine logical reasoning; they replicate reasoning steps from their training data. Adding a single clause that seems relevant to the question causes significant performance drops (up to 65%) across all state-of-the-art models, even though the clause doesn't contribute to the reasoning chain needed for the final answer. Overall, our work offers a more nuanced understanding of LLMs' capabilities and limitations in mathematical reasoning.

The derivation of mathematical results in specialised fields using Large Language Models (LLMs) is an emerging research direction that can help identify models' limitations, and potentially support mathematical discovery. In this paper, we leverage a symbolic engine to generate derivations of equations at scale, and investigate the capabilities of LLMs when deriving goal equations from premises. Specifically, we employ in-context learning for GPT and fine-tune a range of T5 models to compare the robustness and generalisation of pre-training strategies to specialised models. Empirical results show that fine-tuned FLAN-T5-large (MathT5) outperforms GPT models on all static and out-of-distribution test sets in terms of absolute performance. However, an in-depth analysis reveals that the fine-tuned models are more sensitive to perturbations involving unseen symbols and (to a lesser extent) changes to equation structure. In addition, we analyse 1.7K equations and over 200 derivations to highlight common reasoning errors such as the inclusion of incorrect, irrelevant, and redundant equations, along with the tendency to skip derivation steps. Finally, we explore the suitability of existing metrics for evaluating mathematical derivations finding evidence that, while they capture general properties such as sensitivity to perturbations, they fail to highlight fine-grained reasoning errors and essential differences between models. Overall, this work demonstrates that training models on synthetic data can improve their mathematical capabilities beyond larger architectures.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) relies on the powerful LLM to perform multimodal tasks, showing amazing emergent abilities in recent studies, such as writing poems based on an image. However, it is difficult for these case studies to fully reflect the performance of MLLM, lacking a comprehensive evaluation. In this paper, we fill in this blank, presenting the first MLLM Evaluation benchmark MME. It measures both perception and cognition abilities on a total of 14 subtasks. In order to avoid data leakage that may arise from direct use of public datasets for evaluation, the annotations of instruction-answer pairs are all manually designed. The concise instruction design allows us to fairly compare MLLMs, instead of struggling in prompt engineering. Besides, with such an instruction, we can also easily carry out quantitative statistics. A total of 12 advanced MLLMs are comprehensively evaluated on our MME, which not only suggests that existing MLLMs still have a large room for improvement, but also reveals the potential directions for the subsequent model optimization.

In this work, we study the impact of Large-scale Language Models (LLM) on Automated Speech Recognition (ASR) of YouTube videos, which we use as a source for long-form ASR. We demonstrate up to 8\% relative reduction in Word Error Eate (WER) on US English (en-us) and code-switched Indian English (en-in) long-form ASR test sets and a reduction of up to 30\% relative on Salient Term Error Rate (STER) over a strong first-pass baseline that uses a maximum-entropy based language model. Improved lattice processing that results in a lattice with a proper (non-tree) digraph topology and carrying context from the 1-best hypothesis of the previous segment(s) results in significant wins in rescoring with LLMs. We also find that the gains in performance from the combination of LLMs trained on vast quantities of available data (such as C4) and conventional neural LMs is additive and significantly outperforms a strong first-pass baseline with a maximum entropy LM.

Grammatical error correction (GEC) aims to improve quality and readability of texts through accurate correction of linguistic mistakes. Previous work has focused on high-resource languages, while low-resource languages lack robust tools. However, low-resource languages often face problems such as: non-standard orthography, limited annotated corpora, and diverse dialects, which slows down the development of GEC tools. We present a study on GEC for Zarma, spoken by over five million in West Africa. We compare three approaches: rule-based methods, machine translation (MT) models, and large language models (LLMs). We evaluated them using a dataset of more than 250,000 examples, including synthetic and human-annotated data. Our results showed that the MT-based approach using M2M100 outperforms others, with a detection rate of 95. 82% and a suggestion accuracy of 78. 90% in automatic evaluations (AE) and an average score of 3.0 out of 5.0 in manual evaluation (ME) from native speakers for grammar and logical corrections. The rule-based method was effective for spelling errors but failed on complex context-level errors. LLMs -- MT5-small -- showed moderate performance. Our work supports use of MT models to enhance GEC in low-resource settings, and we validated these results with Bambara, another West African language.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

Offline model selection (OMS), that is, choosing the best policy from a set of many policies given only logged data, is crucial for applying offline RL in real-world settings. One idea that has been extensively explored is to select policies based on the mean squared Bellman error (MSBE) of the associated Q-functions. However, previous work has struggled to obtain adequate OMS performance with Bellman errors, leading many researchers to abandon the idea. To this end, we elucidate why previous work has seen pessimistic results with Bellman errors and identify conditions under which OMS algorithms based on Bellman errors will perform well. Moreover, we develop a new estimator of the MSBE that is more accurate than prior methods. Our estimator obtains impressive OMS performance on diverse discrete control tasks, including Atari games.

Exponential moving average (EMA) has recently gained significant popularity in training modern deep learning models, especially diffusion-based generative models. However, there have been few theoretical results explaining the effectiveness of EMA. In this paper, to better understand EMA, we establish the risk bound of online SGD with EMA for high-dimensional linear regression, one of the simplest overparameterized learning tasks that shares similarities with neural networks. Our results indicate that (i) the variance error of SGD with EMA is always smaller than that of SGD without averaging, and (ii) unlike SGD with iterate averaging from the beginning, the bias error of SGD with EMA decays exponentially in every eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Additionally, we develop proof techniques applicable to the analysis of a broad class of averaging schemes.

Denoisers play a central role in many applications, from noise suppression in low-grade imaging sensors, to empowering score-based generative models. The latter category of methods makes use of Tweedie's formula, which links the posterior mean in Gaussian denoising (\ie the minimum MSE denoiser) with the score of the data distribution. Here, we derive a fundamental relation between the higher-order central moments of the posterior distribution, and the higher-order derivatives of the posterior mean. We harness this result for uncertainty quantification of pre-trained denoisers. Particularly, we show how to efficiently compute the principal components of the posterior distribution for any desired region of an image, as well as to approximate the full marginal distribution along those (or any other) one-dimensional directions. Our method is fast and memory-efficient, as it does not explicitly compute or store the high-order moment tensors and it requires no training or fine tuning of the denoiser. Code and examples are available on the project webpage in https://hilamanor.github.io/GaussianDenoisingPosterior/ .

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as evaluators in lieu of humans. While scalable, their judgments are noisy due to imperfect specificity and sensitivity of LLMs, leading to biased accuracy estimates. Although bias-correction methods exist, they are underutilized in LLM research and typically assume exact knowledge of the model's specificity and sensitivity. Furthermore, in general we only have estimates of these values and it is not well known how to properly construct confidence intervals using only estimates. This work presents a simple plug-in framework that corrects such bias and constructs confidence intervals reflecting uncertainty from both test and calibration dataset, enabling practical and statistically sound LLM-based evaluation. Additionally, to reduce uncertainty in the accuracy estimate, we introduce an adaptive algorithm that efficiently allocates calibration sample sizes.

Temporal question answering is an established method for evaluating temporal reasoning in large language models. Expected answers are often numeric (e.g., dates or durations), yet model responses are evaluated like regular text with exact match (EM), unable to distinguish small from large errors. In this investigative work, we frame temporal question answering as a numerical estimation task to assess the shortcomings of EM. We introduce TempAnswerQA, a benchmark distilled from Test of Time and TempTabQA, where all questions require a numerical, temporal answer, allowing us to evaluate models beyond EM. We use the forecasting metrics symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). With sMAPE, we find that error size and EM are decoupled. Models with low EM still have low sMAPE (both ~20%), and some models have high sMAPE despite high EM. Scaling errors by the deviation of the ground truth data with MASE reshuffles model rankings compared to EM, revealing gaps in models' understanding of temporal domain knowledge, especially when trained with synthetic data. Lastly, the models' most frequent error is to deviate by only pm1 from the ground truth. sMAPE and MASE, unlike EM, adequately weight these errors. Our findings underscore the need for specialised metrics for temporal QA tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/aauss/temporal-answer-qa.

The present study aims to explore the capabilities of Language Models (LMs) in tackling high-stakes multiple-choice tests, represented here by the Exame Nacional do Ensino M\'edio (ENEM), a multidisciplinary entrance examination widely adopted by Brazilian universities. This exam poses challenging tasks for LMs, since its questions may span into multiple fields of knowledge, requiring understanding of information from diverse domains. For instance, a question may require comprehension of both statistics and biology to be solved. This work analyzed responses generated by GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models for questions presented in the 2009-2017 exams, as well as for questions of the 2022 exam, which were made public after the training of the models was completed. Furthermore, different prompt strategies were tested, including the use of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompts to generate explanations for answers. On the 2022 edition, the best-performing model, GPT-4 with CoT, achieved an accuracy of 87%, largely surpassing GPT-3.5 by 11 points. The code and data used on experiments are available at https://github.com/piresramon/gpt-4-enem.

This work studies the general principles of improving the learning of language models (LMs), which aims at reducing the necessary training steps for achieving superior performance. Specifically, we present a theory for the optimal learning of LMs. We first propose an objective that optimizes LM learning by maximizing the data compression ratio in an "LM-training-as-lossless-compression" view. Then, we derive a theorem, named Learning Law, to reveal the properties of the dynamics in the optimal learning process under our objective. The theorem is then validated by experiments on a linear classification and a real-world language modeling task. Finally, we empirically verify that the optimal learning of LMs essentially stems from the improvement of the coefficients in the scaling law of LMs, indicating great promise and significance for designing practical learning acceleration methods. Our code can be found at https://aka.ms/LearningLaw.

Although diffusion models (DMs) have shown promising performances in a number of tasks (e.g., speech synthesis and image generation), they might suffer from error propagation because of their sequential structure. However, this is not certain because some sequential models, such as Conditional Random Field (CRF), are free from this problem. To address this issue, we develop a theoretical framework to mathematically formulate error propagation in the architecture of DMs, The framework contains three elements, including modular error, cumulative error, and propagation equation. The modular and cumulative errors are related by the equation, which interprets that DMs are indeed affected by error propagation. Our theoretical study also suggests that the cumulative error is closely related to the generation quality of DMs. Based on this finding, we apply the cumulative error as a regularization term to reduce error propagation. Because the term is computationally intractable, we derive its upper bound and design a bootstrap algorithm to efficiently estimate the bound for optimization. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple image datasets, showing that our proposed regularization reduces error propagation, significantly improves vanilla DMs, and outperforms previous baselines.

Advanced applied mathematics problems are underrepresented in existing Large Language Model (LLM) benchmark datasets. To address this, we introduce HARDMath, a dataset inspired by a graduate course on asymptotic methods, featuring challenging applied mathematics problems that require analytical approximation techniques. These problems demand a combination of mathematical reasoning, computational tools, and subjective judgment, making them difficult for LLMs. Our framework auto-generates a large number of problems with solutions validated against numerical ground truths. We evaluate both open- and closed-source LLMs on HARDMath-mini, a sub-sampled test set of 366 problems, as well as on 40 word problems formulated in applied science contexts. Even leading closed-source models like GPT-4 achieve only 43.8% overall accuracy with few-shot Chain-of-Thought prompting, and all models demonstrate significantly lower performance compared to results on existing mathematics benchmark datasets. We additionally conduct a detailed error analysis to gain insights into the failure cases of LLMs. These results demonstrate limitations of current LLM performance on advanced graduate-level applied math problems and underscore the importance of datasets like HARDMath to advance mathematical abilities of LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) have obtained promising results in mathematical reasoning, which is a foundational skill for human intelligence. Most previous studies focus on improving and measuring the performance of LLMs based on textual math reasoning datasets (e.g., MATH, GSM8K). Recently, a few researchers have released English multimodal math datasets (e.g., MATHVISTA and MATH-V) to evaluate the effectiveness of large multimodal models (LMMs). In this paper, we release a Chinese multimodal math (CMM-Math) dataset, including benchmark and training parts, to evaluate and enhance the mathematical reasoning of LMMs. CMM-Math contains over 28,000 high-quality samples, featuring a variety of problem types (e.g., multiple-choice, fill-in-the-blank, and so on) with detailed solutions across 12 grade levels from elementary to high school in China. Specifically, the visual context may be present in the questions or opinions, which makes this dataset more challenging. Through comprehensive analysis, we discover that state-of-the-art LMMs on the CMM-Math dataset face challenges, emphasizing the necessity for further improvements in LMM development. We also propose a Multimodal Mathematical LMM (Math-LMM) to handle the problems with mixed input of multiple images and text segments. We train our model using three stages, including foundational pre-training, foundational fine-tuning, and mathematical fine-tuning. The extensive experiments indicate that our model effectively improves math reasoning performance by comparing it with the SOTA LMMs over three multimodal mathematical datasets.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited strong mathematical reasoning and computational prowess, tackling tasks ranging from basic arithmetic to advanced competition-level problems. However, frequently occurring subtle errors, such as miscalculations or incorrect substitutions, limit the models' full mathematical potential. Existing studies to improve mathematical ability typically involve distilling reasoning skills from stronger LLMs or applying preference learning to step-wise response pairs. Although these methods leverage samples of varying granularity to mitigate reasoning errors, they overlook the frequently occurring subtle errors. A major reason is that sampled preference pairs involve differences unrelated to the errors, which may distract the model from focusing on subtle errors. In this work, we propose a novel preference learning framework called eRror-Injected Self-Editing (RISE), which injects predefined subtle errors into partial tokens of correct solutions to construct hard pairs for error mitigation. In detail, RISE uses the model itself to edit a small number of tokens in the solution, injecting designed subtle errors. Then, pairs composed of self-edited solutions and their corresponding correct ones, along with pairs of correct and incorrect solutions obtained through sampling, are used together for subtle error-aware DPO training. Compared with other preference learning methods, RISE further refines the training objective to focus on predefined errors and their tokens, without requiring fine-grained sampling or preference annotation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RISE, with preference learning on Qwen2-7B-Instruct yielding notable improvements of 3.0% on GSM8K and 7.9% on MATH.

Uncertainty estimation is crucial for evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes domains where incorrect answers result in significant consequences. Numerous approaches consider this problem, while focusing on a specific type of uncertainty, ignoring others. We investigate what estimates, specifically token-wise entropy and model-as-judge (MASJ), would work for multiple-choice question-answering tasks for different question topics. Our experiments consider three LLMs: Phi-4, Mistral, and Qwen of different sizes from 1.5B to 72B and 14 topics. While MASJ performs similarly to a random error predictor, the response entropy predicts model error in knowledge-dependent domains and serves as an effective indicator of question difficulty: for biology ROC AUC is 0.73. This correlation vanishes for the reasoning-dependent domain: for math questions ROC-AUC is 0.55. More principally, we found out that the entropy measure required a reasoning amount. Thus, data-uncertainty related entropy should be integrated within uncertainty estimates frameworks, while MASJ requires refinement. Moreover, existing MMLU-Pro samples are biased, and should balance required amount of reasoning for different subdomains to provide a more fair assessment of LLMs performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become pivotal in advancing the field of artificial intelligence, yet their immense sizes pose significant challenges for both fine-tuning and deployment. Current post-training pruning methods, while reducing the sizes of LLMs, often fail to maintain their original performance. To address these challenges, this paper introduces SPP, a Sparsity-Preserved Parameter-efficient fine-tuning method. Different from existing post-training pruning approaches that struggle with performance retention, SPP proposes to employ lightweight learnable column and row matrices to optimize sparse LLM weights, keeping the structure and sparsity of pruned pre-trained models intact. By element-wise multiplication and residual addition, SPP ensures the consistency of model sparsity pattern and ratio during both training and weight-merging processes. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SPP by applying it to the LLaMA and LLaMA-2 model families with recent post-training pruning methods. Our results show that SPP significantly enhances the performance of models with different sparsity patterns (i.e. unstructured and N:M sparsity), especially for those with high sparsity ratios (e.g. 75%), making it a promising solution for the efficient fine-tuning of sparse LLMs. Code will be made available at https://github.com/Lucky-Lance/SPP.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

The rapid growth in the parameter scale of large language models (LLMs) has created a high demand for efficient compression techniques. As a hardware-agnostic and highly compatible technique, low-rank compression has been widely adopted. However, existing methods typically compress each layer independently by minimizing per-layer reconstruction error, overlooking a critical limitation: the reconstruction error propagates and accumulates through the network, which leads to amplified global deviations from the full-precision baseline. To address this, we propose Self-Adaptive Error Suppression SVD (SAES-SVD), a LLMs compression framework that jointly optimizes intra-layer reconstruction and inter-layer error compensation. SAES-SVD is composed of two novel components: (1) Cumulative Error-Aware Layer Compression (CEALC), which formulates the compression objective as a combination of local reconstruction and weighted cumulative error compensation. Based on it, we derive a closed-form low-rank solution relied on second-order activation statistics, which explicitly aligns each layer's output with its full-precision counterpart to compensate for accumulated errors. (2) Adaptive Collaborative Error Suppression (ACES), which automatically adjusts the weighting coefficient to enhance the low-rank structure of the compression objective in CEALC. Specifically, the coefficient is optimized to maximize the ratio between the Frobenius norm of the compressed layer's output and that of the compression objective under a fixed rank, thus ensuring that the rank budget is utilized effectively. Extensive experiments across multiple LLM architectures and tasks show that, without fine-tuning or mixed-rank strategies, SAES-SVD consistently improves post-compression performance.

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in mathematical theorem proving, particularly when utilizing formal languages such as LEAN. The major learning paradigm is expert iteration, which necessitates a pre-defined dataset comprising numerous mathematical problems. In this process, LLMs attempt to prove problems within the dataset and iteratively refine their capabilities through self-training on the proofs they discover. We propose to use large scale LEAN problem datasets Lean-workbook for expert iteration with more than 20,000 CPU days. During expert iteration, we found log-linear trends between solved problem amount with proof length and CPU usage. We train a critic model to select relatively easy problems for policy models to make trials and guide the model to search for deeper proofs. InternLM2.5-StepProver achieves open-source state-of-the-art on MiniF2F, Lean-Workbook-Plus, ProofNet, and Putnam benchmarks. Specifically, it achieves a pass of 65.9% on the MiniF2F-test and proves (or disproves) 17.0% of problems in Lean-Workbook-Plus which shows a significant improvement compared to only 9.5% of problems proved when Lean-Workbook-Plus was released. We open-source our models and searched proofs at https://github.com/InternLM/InternLM-Math and https://huggingface.co/datasets/internlm/Lean-Workbook.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the L_2 distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the L_2 distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.

Masked diffusion models (MDMs) have shown promise in language modeling, yet their scalability and effectiveness in core language tasks, such as text generation and language understanding, remain underexplored. This paper establishes the first scaling law for MDMs, demonstrating a scaling rate comparable to autoregressive models (ARMs) and a relatively small compute gap. Motivated by their scalability, we train a family of MDMs with up to 1.1 billion (B) parameters to systematically evaluate their performance against ARMs of comparable or larger sizes. Fully leveraging the probabilistic formulation of MDMs, we propose a simple yet effective unsupervised classifier-free guidance that effectively exploits large-scale unpaired data, boosting performance for conditional inference. In language understanding, the 1.1B MDM outperforms the 1.1B TinyLlama model trained on the same data across four of eight zero-shot benchmarks. Notably, it achieves competitive math reasoning ability with the 7B Llama-2 model on the GSM8K dataset. In text generation, MDMs with 16 times more pre-training time offer a flexible trade-off against ARMs with the accelerated sampling technique KV-Cache: MDMs match ARMs in performance while being 1.4 times faster during sampling. Moreover, MDMs address challenging tasks for ARMs by effectively handling bidirectional reasoning and adapting to temporal shifts in data. Notably, a 1.1B MDM breaks the reverse curse encountered by much larger ARMs with significantly more data and computation, such as 13B Llama-2 and 175B GPT-3. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/SMDM.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

Language model (LM) distillation is a trending area that aims to distil the knowledge resided in a large teacher LM to a small student one. While various methods have been proposed to push the distillation to its limits, it is still a pain distilling LMs when a large capacity gap is exhibited between the teacher and the student LMs. The pain is mainly resulted by the curse of capacity gap, which describes that a larger teacher LM cannot always lead to a better student LM than one distilled from a smaller teacher LM due to the affect of capacity gap increment. That is, there is likely an optimal point yielding the best student LM along the scaling course of the teacher LM. Even worse, the curse of capacity gap can be only partly yet not fully lifted as indicated in previous studies. However, the tale is not ever one-sided. Although a larger teacher LM has better performance than a smaller teacher LM, it is much more resource-demanding especially in the context of recent large LMs (LLMs). Consequently, instead of sticking to lifting the curse, leaving the curse as is should be arguably fine. Even better, in this paper, we reveal that the optimal capacity gap is almost consistent across different student scales and architectures, fortunately turning the curse into the law of capacity gap. The law later guides us to distil a 3B student LM (termed MiniMA) from a 7B teacher LM (adapted LLaMA2-7B). MiniMA is demonstrated to yield a new compute-performance pareto frontier among existing 3B LMs on commonly used benchmarks, and its instruction-tuned version (termed MiniChat) outperforms a wide range of 3B competitors in GPT4 evaluation and could even compete with several 7B chat models.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) offer a promising alternative to autoregressive models, but their practical utility is severely hampered by slow, iterative sampling. We present SchED, a training-free, model-agnostic early-exit algorithm that aggregates full-span logit margins and halts decoding once a smooth, progress-dependent confidence threshold is met. We evaluated SchED on two dLLM families (Dream and LLaDA), in base and instruction-tuned variants across ten benchmarks spanning downstream tasks including multiple-choice question answering (MCQ), math, long-form QA/summarization, and translation. SchED delivers large, stable accelerations: on instruction-tuned models, it achieves 3.8-4.0times speedups while retaining 99.8-100% of the baseline score on average. On base models, SchED yields consistent speedup gains with 99.1-100% performance retention, with up to 2.34times under more aggressive settings. Using a conservative speed metric that heavily penalizes quality loss (QPS, γ{=}4), we show that SchED is robust and clearly outperforms prior confidence-based early-exit methods, which break down on long-form generation. An entropy analysis of the model's token predictions reveals that instruction tuning speeds up the decay of predictive entropy. By turning genuine confidence stabilization into computational savings, SchED makes dLLM decoding substantially more efficient.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) represent a new paradigm beyond autoregressive modeling, offering competitive performance while naturally enabling a flexible decoding process. Specifically, dLLMs can generate tokens at arbitrary positions in parallel, endowing them with significant potential for parallel test-time scaling, which was previously constrained by severe inefficiency in autoregressive modeling. In this work, we introduce dVoting, a fast voting technique that boosts reasoning capability without training, with only an acceptable extra computational overhead. dVoting is motivated by the observation that, across multiple samples for the same prompt, token predictions remain largely consistent, whereas performance is determined by a small subset of tokens exhibiting cross-sample variability. Leveraging the arbitrary-position generation capability of dLLMs, dVoting performs iterative refinement by sampling, identifying uncertain tokens via consistency analysis, regenerating them through voting, and repeating this process until convergence. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that dVoting consistently improves performance across various benchmarks. It achieves gains of 6.22%-7.66% on GSM8K, 4.40%-7.20% on MATH500, 3.16%-14.84% on ARC-C, and 4.83%-5.74% on MMLU. Our code is available at https://github.com/fscdc/dVoting

Large Language Models (LLMs) are consistently improving at increasingly realistic software engineering (SE) tasks. In real-world software stacks, significant SE effort is spent developing foundational system software like the Linux kernel. Unlike application-level software, a systems codebase like Linux is multilingual (low-level C/Assembly/Bash/Rust); gigantic (>20 million lines); critical (impacting billions of devices worldwide), and highly concurrent (involving complex multi-threading). To evaluate if ML models are useful while developing such large-scale systems-level software, we introduce kGym (a platform) and kBench (a dataset). The kGym platform provides a SE environment for large-scale experiments on the Linux kernel, including compiling and running kernels in parallel across several virtual machines, detecting operations and crashes, inspecting logs, and querying and patching the code base. We use kGym to facilitate evaluation on kBench, a crash resolution benchmark drawn from real-world Linux kernel bugs. An example bug in kBench contains crashing stack traces, a bug-reproducer file, a developer-written fix, and other associated data. To understand current performance, we conduct baseline experiments by prompting LLMs to resolve Linux kernel crashes. Our initial evaluations reveal that the best performing LLM achieves 0.72% and 5.38% in the unassisted and assisted (i.e., buggy files disclosed to the model) settings, respectively. These results highlight the need for further research to enhance model performance in SE tasks. Improving performance on kBench requires models to master new learning skills, including understanding the cause of crashes and repairing faults, writing memory-safe and hardware-aware code, and understanding concurrency. As a result, this work opens up multiple avenues of research at the intersection of machine learning and systems software.

Verifying the provenance of content is crucial to the function of many organizations, e.g., educational institutions, social media platforms, firms, etc. This problem is becoming increasingly difficult as text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) becomes almost indistinguishable from human-generated content. In addition, many institutions utilize in-house LLMs and want to ensure that external, non-sanctioned LLMs do not produce content within the institution. In this paper, we answer the following question: Given a piece of text, can we identify whether it was produced by LLM A or B (where B can be a human)? We model LLM-generated text as a sequential stochastic process with complete dependence on history and design zero-shot statistical tests to distinguish between (i) the text generated by two different sets of LLMs A (in-house) and B (non-sanctioned) and also (ii) LLM-generated and human-generated texts. We prove that the type I and type II errors for our tests decrease exponentially in the text length. In designing our tests, we derive concentration inequalities on the difference between log-perplexity and the average entropy of the string under A. Specifically, for a given string, we demonstrate that if the string is generated by A, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average entropy of the string under A, except with an exponentially small probability in string length. We also show that if B generates the text, except with an exponentially small probability in string length, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average cross-entropy of B and A. Lastly, we present preliminary experimental results to support our theoretical results. By enabling guaranteed (with high probability) finding of the origin of harmful LLM-generated text with arbitrary size, we can help combat misinformation.

We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs, we obtain the exact minimax quantile risk for a rich family of error functions and establish the minimaxity of OLS. This improves on the known lower bounds for the special case of square error, and provides us with a lower bound on the minimax quantile risk over larger sets of distributions. Under the square error and a fourth moment assumption on the distribution of inputs, we show that this lower bound is tight over a larger class of problems. Specifically, we prove a matching upper bound on the worst-case quantile risk of a variant of the recently proposed min-max regression procedure, thereby establishing its minimaxity, up to absolute constants. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by extending this result to all p-th power error functions for p in (2, infty). Along the way, we develop a generic analogue to the classical Bayesian method for lower bounding the minimax risk when working with the quantile risk, as well as a tight characterization of the quantiles of the smallest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix.

Linear Sequence Modeling (LSM) like linear attention, state space models and linear RNNs, and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) have recently emerged as significant architectural improvements. In this paper, we introduce Linear-MoE, a production-level system for modeling and training large-scale models that integrate LSM with MoE. Linear-MoE leverages the advantages of both LSM modules for linear-complexity sequence modeling and MoE layers for sparsely activation, aiming to offer high performance with efficient training. The Linear-MoE system comprises: 1) Modeling subsystem, which provides a unified framework supporting all instances of LSM. and 2) Training subsystem, which facilitates efficient training by incorporating various advanced parallelism technologies, particularly Sequence Parallelism designed for Linear-MoE models. Additionally, we explore hybrid models that combine Linear-MoE layers with standard Transformer-MoE layers with its Sequence Parallelism to further enhance model flexibility and performance. Evaluations on two model series, A0.3B-2B and A1B-7B, demonstrate Linear-MoE achieves efficiency gains while maintaining competitive performance on various benchmarks, showcasing its potential as a next-generation foundational model architecture. Code: https://github.com/OpenSparseLLMs/Linear-MoE.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various domains. Math Word Problems (MWPs) serve as a crucial benchmark for evaluating LLMs' reasoning abilities. While most research primarily focuses on improving accuracy, it often neglects understanding and addressing the underlying patterns of errors. Current error classification methods rely on static and predefined categories, which limit their ability to capture the full spectrum of error patterns in mathematical reasoning. To enable systematic error analysis, we collect error samples from 15 different LLMs of varying sizes across four distinct MWP datasets using multiple sampling strategies. Based on this extensive collection, we introduce MWPES-300K, a comprehensive dataset containing 304,865 error samples that cover diverse error patterns and reasoning paths. To reduce human bias and enable fine-grained analysis of error patterns, we propose a novel framework for automated dynamic error classification in mathematical reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that dataset characteristics significantly shape error patterns, which evolve from basic to complex manifestations as model capabilities increase. With deeper insights into error patterns, we propose error-aware prompting that incorporates common error patterns as explicit guidance, leading to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been applied to Math Word Problems (MWPs) with transformative impacts, revolutionizing how these complex problems are approached and solved in various domains including educational settings. However, the evaluation of these models often prioritizes final accuracy, overlooking the crucial aspect of reasoning capabilities. This work addresses this gap by focusing on the ability of LLMs to detect and correct reasoning mistakes. We introduce a novel dataset MWP-MISTAKE, incorporating MWPs with both correct and incorrect reasoning steps generated through rule-based methods and smaller language models. Our comprehensive benchmarking reveals significant insights into the strengths and weaknesses of state-of-the-art models, such as GPT-4o, GPT-4, GPT-3.5Turbo, and others. We highlight GPT-$o's superior performance in mistake detection and rectification and the persistent challenges faced by smaller models. Additionally, we identify issues related to data contamination and memorization, impacting the reliability of LLMs in real-world applications. Our findings emphasize the importance of rigorous evaluation of reasoning processes and propose future directions to enhance the generalization and robustness of LLMs in mathematical problem-solving.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks. However, there are increasing debates regarding whether these models truly understand and apply mathematical knowledge or merely rely on shortcuts for mathematical reasoning. One essential and frequently occurring evidence is that when the math questions are slightly changed, LLMs can behave incorrectly. This motivates us to evaluate the robustness of LLMs' math reasoning capability by testing a wide range of question variations. We introduce the adversarial grade school math (\datasetname) dataset, an extension of GSM8K augmented with various mathematical perturbations. Our experiments on 25 LLMs and 4 prompting techniques show that while LLMs exhibit different levels of math reasoning abilities, their performances are far from robust. In particular, even for problems that have been solved in GSM8K, LLMs can make mistakes when new statements are added or the question targets are altered. We also explore whether more robust performance can be achieved by composing existing prompting methods, in which we try an iterative method that generates and verifies each intermediate thought based on its reasoning goal and calculation result. Code and data are available at https://github.com/qtli/GSM-Plus.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capability in solving mathematical problems. However, existing approaches primarily focus on improving the quality of correct training data, e.g., distilling high-quality correct solutions from advanced models, neglecting the value contained in error data, potentially hindering the model's reflective ability. Though some studies attempt to leverage error data, they often involve complex mechanisms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to explore error nodes. In this work, we propose to enhance LLMs' reasoning ability by Learning from Errors for Mathematical Advancement (LEMMA). LEMMA constructs data consisting of an incorrect solution with an erroneous step and a reflection connection to a correct solution for fine-tuning. Specifically, we systematically analyze the model-generated error types and introduce an error-type grounded mistake augmentation method to collect diverse and representative errors. Correct solutions are either from fixing the errors or generating a fresh start. Through a model-aware smooth reflection connection, the erroneous solution is transferred to the correct one. By fine-tuning on the constructed dataset, the model is able to self-correct errors autonomously within the generation process without relying on external critique models. Experimental results demonstrate that LEMMA achieves significant performance improvements over other strong baselines.

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

Math Word Problems (MWPs) play a vital role in assessing the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet current research primarily focuses on questions with concise contexts. The impact of longer contexts on mathematical reasoning remains under-explored. This study pioneers the investigation of Context Length Generalizability (CoLeG), which refers to the ability of LLMs to solve MWPs with extended narratives. We introduce Extended Grade-School Math (E-GSM), a collection of MWPs featuring lengthy narratives, and propose two novel metrics to evaluate the efficacy and resilience of LLMs in tackling these problems. Our analysis of existing zero-shot prompting techniques with proprietary LLMs along with open-source LLMs reveals a general deficiency in CoLeG. To alleviate these issues, we propose tailored approaches for different categories of LLMs. For proprietary LLMs, we introduce a new instructional prompt designed to mitigate the impact of long contexts. For open-source LLMs, we develop a novel auxiliary task for fine-tuning to enhance CoLeG. Our comprehensive results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods, showing improved performance on E-GSM. Additionally, we conduct an in-depth analysis to differentiate the effects of semantic understanding and reasoning efficacy, showing that our methods improves the latter. We also establish the generalizability of our methods across several other MWP benchmarks. Our findings highlight the limitations of current LLMs and offer practical solutions correspondingly, paving the way for further exploration of model generalizability and training methodologies.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in handling complex multimodal tasks and are increasingly adopted in video understanding applications. However, their rapid advancement raises serious data privacy concerns, particularly given the potential inclusion of sensitive video content, such as personal recordings and surveillance footage, in their training datasets. Determining improperly used videos during training remains a critical and unresolved challenge. Despite considerable progress on membership inference attacks (MIAs) for text and image data in MLLMs, existing methods fail to generalize effectively to the video domain. These methods suffer from poor scalability as more frames are sampled and generally achieve negligible true positive rates at low false positive rates (TPR@Low FPR), mainly due to their failure to capture the inherent temporal variations of video frames and to account for model behavior differences as the number of frames varies. To address these challenges, we introduce Vid-SME, the first membership inference method tailored for video data used in video understanding LLMs (VULLMs). Vid-SME leverages the confidence of model output and integrates adaptive parameterization to compute Sharma-Mittal entropy (SME) for video inputs. By leveraging the SME difference between natural and temporally-reversed video frames, Vid-SME derives robust membership scores to determine whether a given video is part of the model's training set. Experiments on various self-trained and open-sourced VULLMs demonstrate the strong effectiveness of Vid-SME.

The development of Large Speech-Language Models (LSLMs) has been slowed by fragmented architectures and a lack of transparency, hindering the systematic comparison and reproducibility of research. Unlike in the vision-language domain, the LSLM field suffers from the common practice of releasing model weights without their corresponding training data and configurations. To address these critical gaps, we introduce LLaSO, the first fully open, end-to-end framework for large-scale speech-language modeling. LLaSO provides the community with three essential resources: (1) LLaSO-Align, a 12M-instance speech-text alignment corpus; (2) LLaSO-Instruct, a 13.5M-instance multi-task instruction-tuning dataset; and (3) LLaSO-Eval, a reproducible benchmark for standardized evaluation. To validate our framework, we build and release LLaSO-Base, a 3.8B-parameter reference model trained exclusively on our public data. It achieves a normalized score of 0.72, establishing a strong, reproducible baseline that surpasses comparable models. Our analysis reveals that while broader training coverage enhances performance, significant generalization gaps persist on unseen tasks, particularly in pure audio scenarios. By releasing the complete stack of data, benchmarks, and models, LLaSO establishes a foundational open standard to unify research efforts and accelerate community-driven progress in LSLMs. We release the code, dataset, pretrained models, and results in https://github.com/EIT-NLP/LLaSO.

Large language models (LLMs) deliver impressive performance but incur prohibitive memory and compute costs at deployment. Model pruning is an effective way to reduce these overheads, yet existing approaches face challenges: unstructured sparsity, where nonzeros can appear anywhere, preserves accuracy but yields irregular access patterns that prevent GPU acceleration, while semi-structured 2:4 sparsity is hardware-friendly but enforces a rigid 50% pattern that degrades model quality. To bridge this gap, we introduce PATCH, a hybrid sparsity framework that enables a continuous sparsity ratio between 0% and 50%. PATCH partitions weight matrices into tiles, assigning each tile to be either dense or 2:4 sparse via a learnable mask selection mechanism. This design provides fine-grained control over accuracy-acceleration tradeoffs and supports non-uniform sparsity across layers, leading to superior overall quality. Across models from 0.5B to 8B parameters, PATCH consistently narrows the gap to dense accuracy while delivering practical speedups. For instance, on LLaMA-2 7B with an A6000 GPU, PATCH achieves 1.18x-1.38x end-to-end speedup over dense baselines while improving accuracy by 0.37%-2.96% compared to the state-of-the-art 2:4 pruning method, MaskLLM.

Mixture of Experts (MoEs) plays an important role in the development of more efficient and effective large language models (LLMs). Due to the enormous resource requirements, studying large scale MoE algorithms remain in-accessible to many researchers. This work develops LibMoE, a comprehensive and modular framework to streamline the research, training, and evaluation of MoE algorithms. Built upon three core principles: (i) modular design, (ii) efficient training; (iii) comprehensive evaluation, LibMoE brings MoE in LLMs more accessible to a wide range of researchers by standardizing the training and evaluation pipelines. Using LibMoE, we extensively benchmarked five state-of-the-art MoE algorithms over three different LLMs and 11 datasets under the zero-shot setting. The results show that despite the unique characteristics, all MoE algorithms perform roughly similar when averaged across a wide range of tasks. With the modular design and extensive evaluation, we believe LibMoE will be invaluable for researchers to make meaningful progress towards the next generation of MoE and LLMs. Project page: https://fsoft-aic.github.io/fsoft-LibMoE.github.io.

In this paper, we evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to perform multiple choice symbol binding (MCSB) for multiple choice question answering (MCQA) tasks in zero-shot, one-shot, and few-shot settings. We focus on Vietnamese, with fewer challenging MCQA datasets than in English. The two existing datasets, ViMMRC 1.0 and ViMMRC 2.0, focus on literature. Recent research in Vietnamese natural language processing (NLP) has focused on the Vietnamese National High School Graduation Examination (VNHSGE) from 2019 to 2023 to evaluate ChatGPT. However, these studies have mainly focused on how ChatGPT solves the VNHSGE step by step. We aim to create a novel and high-quality dataset by providing structured guidelines for typing LaTeX formulas for mathematics, physics, chemistry, and biology. This dataset can be used to evaluate the MCSB ability of LLMs and smaller language models (LMs) because it is typed in a strict LaTeX style. We focus on predicting the character (A, B, C, or D) that is the most likely answer to a question, given the context of the question. Our evaluation of six well-known LLMs, namely BLOOMZ-7.1B-MT, LLaMA-2-7B, LLaMA-2-70B, GPT-3, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4.0, on the ViMMRC 1.0 and ViMMRC 2.0 benchmarks and our proposed dataset shows promising results on the MCSB ability of LLMs for Vietnamese. The dataset is available for research purposes only.

Recent work has shown the immense potential of synthetically generated datasets for training large language models (LLMs), especially for acquiring targeted skills. Current large-scale math instruction tuning datasets such as MetaMathQA (Yu et al., 2024) and MAmmoTH (Yue et al., 2024) are constructed using outputs from closed-source LLMs with commercially restrictive licenses. A key reason limiting the use of open-source LLMs in these data generation pipelines has been the wide gap between the mathematical skills of the best closed-source LLMs, such as GPT-4, and the best open-source LLMs. Building on the recent progress in open-source LLMs, our proposed prompting novelty, and some brute-force scaling, we construct OpenMathInstruct-1, a math instruction tuning dataset with 1.8M problem-solution pairs. The dataset is constructed by synthesizing code-interpreter solutions for GSM8K and MATH, two popular math reasoning benchmarks, using the recently released and permissively licensed Mixtral model. Our best model, OpenMath-CodeLlama-70B, trained on a subset of OpenMathInstruct-1, achieves a score of 84.6% on GSM8K and 50.7% on MATH, which is competitive with the best gpt-distilled models. We release our code, models, and the OpenMathInstruct-1 dataset under a commercially permissive license.

Although state-of-the-art LLMs can solve math problems, we find that they make errors on numerical comparisons with mixed notation: "Which is larger, 5.7 times 10^2 or 580?" This raises a fundamental question: Do LLMs even know how big these numbers are? We probe the hidden states of several smaller open-source LLMs. A single linear projection of an appropriate hidden layer encodes the log-magnitudes of both kinds of numerals, allowing us to recover the numbers with relative error of about 2.3% (on restricted synthetic text) or 19.06% (on scientific papers). Furthermore, the hidden state after reading a pair of numerals encodes their ranking, with a linear classifier achieving over 90% accuracy. Yet surprisingly, when explicitly asked to rank the same pairs of numerals, these LLMs achieve only 50-70% accuracy, with worse performance for models whose probes are less effective. Finally, we show that incorporating the classifier probe's log-loss as an auxiliary objective during finetuning brings an additional 3.22% improvement in verbalized accuracy over base models, demonstrating that improving models' internal magnitude representations can enhance their numerical reasoning capabilities.

With the increase in availability of large pre-trained language models (LMs) in Natural Language Processing (NLP), it becomes critical to assess their fit for a specific target task a priori - as fine-tuning the entire space of available LMs is computationally prohibitive and unsustainable. However, encoder transferability estimation has received little to no attention in NLP. In this paper, we propose to generate quantitative evidence to predict which LM, out of a pool of models, will perform best on a target task without having to fine-tune all candidates. We provide a comprehensive study on LM ranking for 10 NLP tasks spanning the two fundamental problem types of classification and structured prediction. We adopt the state-of-the-art Logarithm of Maximum Evidence (LogME) measure from Computer Vision (CV) and find that it positively correlates with final LM performance in 94% of the setups. In the first study of its kind, we further compare transferability measures with the de facto standard of human practitioner ranking, finding that evidence from quantitative metrics is more robust than pure intuition and can help identify unexpected LM candidates.

Large language models (large LMs) are increasingly trained on massive codebases and used to generate code. However, LMs lack awareness of security and are found to frequently produce unsafe code. This work studies the security of LMs along two important axes: (i) security hardening, which aims to enhance LMs' reliability in generating secure code, and (ii) adversarial testing, which seeks to evaluate LMs' security at an adversarial standpoint. We address both of these by formulating a new security task called controlled code generation. The task is parametric and takes as input a binary property to guide the LM to generate secure or unsafe code, while preserving the LM's capability of generating functionally correct code. We propose a novel learning-based approach called SVEN to solve this task. SVEN leverages property-specific continuous vectors to guide program generation towards the given property, without modifying the LM's weights. Our training procedure optimizes these continuous vectors by enforcing specialized loss terms on different regions of code, using a high-quality dataset carefully curated by us. Our extensive evaluation shows that SVEN is highly effective in achieving strong security control. For instance, a state-of-the-art CodeGen LM with 2.7B parameters generates secure code for 59.1% of the time. When we employ SVEN to perform security hardening (or adversarial testing) on this LM, the ratio is significantly boosted to 92.3% (or degraded to 36.8%). Importantly, SVEN closely matches the original LMs in functional correctness.

Mathematical capabilities were previously believed to emerge in common language models only at a very large scale or require extensive math-related pre-training. This paper shows that the LLaMA-2 7B model with common pre-training already exhibits strong mathematical abilities, as evidenced by its impressive accuracy of 97.7% and 72.0% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively, when selecting the best response from 256 random generations. The primary issue with the current base model is the difficulty in consistently eliciting its inherent mathematical capabilities. Notably, the accuracy for the first answer drops to 49.5% and 7.9% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively. We find that simply scaling up the SFT data can significantly enhance the reliability of generating correct answers. However, the potential for extensive scaling is constrained by the scarcity of publicly available math questions. To overcome this limitation, we employ synthetic data, which proves to be nearly as effective as real data and shows no clear saturation when scaled up to approximately one million samples. This straightforward approach achieves an accuracy of 82.6% on GSM8K and 40.6% on MATH using LLaMA-2 7B models, surpassing previous models by 14.2% and 20.8%, respectively. We also provide insights into scaling behaviors across different reasoning complexities and error types.

LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a cornerstone technique for evaluating large language models by leveraging LLM reasoning to score prompt-response pairs. Since LLM judgments are stochastic, practitioners commonly query each pair multiple times to estimate mean scores accurately. This raises a critical challenge: given a fixed computational budget B, how to optimally allocate queries across K prompt-response pairs to minimize estimation error? % We present a principled variance-adaptive approach leveraging multi-armed bandit theory and concentration inequalities. Our method dynamically allocates queries based on estimated score variances, concentrating resources where uncertainty is highest. Further, our algorithm is shown to achieve a worst-case score-estimation error of Oleft(frac{sum_{i=1^K σ_i^2}{B}}right), σ_i^2 being the unknown score variance for pair i in [K] with near-optimal budget allocation. % Experiments on Summarize-From-Feedback and HelpSteer2 demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms uniform allocation, reducing worst-case estimation error while maintaining identical budgets. Our work establishes a theoretical foundation for efficient LLM evaluation with practical implications for AI safety, model alignment, and automated assessment at scale.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

Mixture of experts (MoE) are a popular class of statistical and machine learning models that have gained attention over the years due to their flexibility and efficiency. In this work, we consider Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) and block-diagonal covariance localized MoE (BLoME) regression models to present nonlinear relationships in heterogeneous data with potential hidden graph-structured interactions between high-dimensional predictors. These models pose difficult statistical estimation and model selection questions, both from a computational and theoretical perspective. This paper is devoted to the study of the problem of model selection among a collection of GLoME or BLoME models characterized by the number of mixture components, the complexity of Gaussian mean experts, and the hidden block-diagonal structures of the covariance matrices, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. In particular, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds that take the form of weak oracle inequalities, provided that lower bounds for the penalties hold. The good empirical behavior of our models is then demonstrated on synthetic and real datasets.

Dataset distillation methods have achieved remarkable success in distilling a large dataset into a small set of representative samples. However, they are not designed to produce a distilled dataset that can be effectively used for facilitating self-supervised pre-training. To this end, we propose a novel problem of distilling an unlabeled dataset into a set of small synthetic samples for efficient self-supervised learning (SSL). We first prove that a gradient of synthetic samples with respect to a SSL objective in naive bilevel optimization is biased due to the randomness originating from data augmentations or masking. To address this issue, we propose to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) between a model's representations of the synthetic examples and their corresponding learnable target feature representations for the inner objective, which does not introduce any randomness. Our primary motivation is that the model obtained by the proposed inner optimization can mimic the self-supervised target model. To achieve this, we also introduce the MSE between representations of the inner model and the self-supervised target model on the original full dataset for outer optimization. Lastly, assuming that a feature extractor is fixed, we only optimize a linear head on top of the feature extractor, which allows us to reduce the computational cost and obtain a closed-form solution of the head with kernel ridge regression. We empirically validate the effectiveness of our method on various applications involving transfer learning.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

We present the Chinese Elementary School Math Word Problems (CMATH) dataset, comprising 1.7k elementary school-level math word problems with detailed annotations, source from actual Chinese workbooks and exams. This dataset aims to provide a benchmark tool for assessing the following question: to what grade level of elementary school math do the abilities of popular large language models (LLMs) correspond? We evaluate a variety of popular LLMs, including both commercial and open-source options, and discover that only GPT-4 achieves success (accuracy geq 60\%) across all six elementary school grades, while other models falter at different grade levels. Furthermore, we assess the robustness of several top-performing LLMs by augmenting the original problems in the CMATH dataset with distracting information. Our findings reveal that GPT-4 is able to maintains robustness, while other model fail. We anticipate that our study will expose limitations in LLMs' arithmetic and reasoning capabilities, and promote their ongoing development and advancement.

Distributed Mean Estimation (DME) is a central building block in federated learning, where clients send local gradients to a parameter server for averaging and updating the model. Due to communication constraints, clients often use lossy compression techniques to compress the gradients, resulting in estimation inaccuracies. DME is more challenging when clients have diverse network conditions, such as constrained communication budgets and packet losses. In such settings, DME techniques often incur a significant increase in the estimation error leading to degraded learning performance. In this work, we propose a robust DME technique named EDEN that naturally handles heterogeneous communication budgets and packet losses. We derive appealing theoretical guarantees for EDEN and evaluate it empirically. Our results demonstrate that EDEN consistently improves over state-of-the-art DME techniques.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in a variety of applications, but concerns around membership inference have grown in parallel. Previous efforts focus on black-to-grey-box models, thus neglecting the potential benefit from internal LLM information. To address this, we propose the use of Linear Probes (LPs) as a method to detect Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) by examining internal activations of LLMs. Our approach, dubbed LUMIA, applies LPs layer-by-layer to get fine-grained data on the model inner workings. We test this method across several model architectures, sizes and datasets, including unimodal and multimodal tasks. In unimodal MIA, LUMIA achieves an average gain of 15.71 % in Area Under the Curve (AUC) over previous techniques. Remarkably, LUMIA reaches AUC>60% in 65.33% of cases -- an increment of 46.80% against the state of the art. Furthermore, our approach reveals key insights, such as the model layers where MIAs are most detectable. In multimodal models, LPs indicate that visual inputs can significantly contribute to detect MIAs -- AUC>60% is reached in 85.90% of experiments.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Mixture of experts (MoE) has a well-principled finite mixture model construction for prediction, allowing the gating network (mixture weights) to learn from the predictors (explanatory variables) together with the experts' network (mixture component densities). We investigate the estimation properties of MoEs in a high-dimensional setting, where the number of predictors is much larger than the sample size, for which the literature lacks computational and especially theoretical results. We consider the class of finite MoE models with softmax gating functions and Gaussian regression experts, and focus on the theoretical properties of their l_1-regularized estimation via the Lasso. We provide a lower bound on the regularization parameter of the Lasso penalty that ensures an l_1-oracle inequality is satisfied by the Lasso estimator according to the Kullback--Leibler loss. We further state an l_1-ball oracle inequality for the l_1-penalized maximum likelihood estimator from the model selection.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in solving mathematical problems, yet their performance is often limited by the availability of high-quality, diverse training data. Existing methods focus on augmenting datasets through rephrasing or difficulty progression but overlook the specific failure modes of LLMs. This results in synthetic questions that the model can already solve, providing minimal performance gains. To address this, we propose WarriorMath, a defect-aware framework for mathematical problem solving that integrates both targeted data synthesis and progressive training. In the synthesis stage, we employ multiple expert LLMs in a collaborative process to generate, critique, and refine problems. Questions that base LLMs fail to solve are identified and iteratively improved through expert-level feedback, producing high-quality, defect-aware training data. In the training stage, we introduce a progressive learning framework that iteratively fine-tunes the model using increasingly challenging data tailored to its weaknesses. Experiments on six mathematical benchmarks show that WarriorMath outperforms strong baselines by 12.57% on average, setting a new state-of-the-art. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of a defect-aware, multi-expert framework for improving mathematical ability.

The problem of estimating an unknown discrete distribution from its samples is a fundamental tenet of statistical learning. Over the past decade, it attracted significant research effort and has been solved for a variety of divergence measures. Surprisingly, an equally important problem, estimating an unknown Markov chain from its samples, is still far from understood. We consider two problems related to the min-max risk (expected loss) of estimating an unknown k-state Markov chain from its n sequential samples: predicting the conditional distribution of the next sample with respect to the KL-divergence, and estimating the transition matrix with respect to a natural loss induced by KL or a more general f-divergence measure. For the first measure, we determine the min-max prediction risk to within a linear factor in the alphabet size, showing it is Omega(kloglog n / n) and O(k^2loglog n / n). For the second, if the transition probabilities can be arbitrarily small, then only trivial uniform risk upper bounds can be derived. We therefore consider transition probabilities that are bounded away from zero, and resolve the problem for essentially all sufficiently smooth f-divergences, including KL-, L_2-, Chi-squared, Hellinger, and Alpha-divergences.