Daily Papers

Autoregressive (AR) language models form representations incrementally through left-to-right prediction, whereas diffusion language models (dLLMs) are trained via full-sequence denoising. Although recent dLLMs match AR performance, it remains unclear whether diffusion objectives fundamentally reshape internal representations across depth. We perform the first layer- and token-wise representational analysis comparing native dLLMs (LLaDA), native AR models (Qwen2.5), and AR-initialized dLLMs (Dream-7B). We find that diffusion objectives result in different, more hierarchical abstractions with substantial early-layer redundancy and reduced recency bias, while AR objectives produce tightly coupled, depth-dependent representations. Critically, AR-initialized dLLMs retain AR-like representational dynamics despite diffusion training, revealing persistent initialization bias. Leveraging this observed representational redundancy, we introduce a static, task-agnostic inference-time layer-skipping method requiring no architectural changes or KV-cache sharing. Native dLLMs achieve up to 18.75% FLOPs reduction while preserving over 90% performance on reasoning and code generation benchmarks, whereas AR models degrade sharply under comparable skipping. These results link training objectives to representational structure and enable practical, cache-orthogonal efficiency gains.

We present SEED, an elaborate image tokenizer that empowers Large Language Models (LLMs) with the emergent ability to SEE and Draw at the same time. Research on image tokenizers has previously reached an impasse, as frameworks employing quantized visual tokens have lost prominence due to subpar performance and convergence in multimodal comprehension (compared to BLIP-2, etc.) or generation (compared to Stable Diffusion, etc.). Despite the limitations, we remain confident in its natural capacity to unify visual and textual representations, facilitating scalable multimodal training with LLM's original recipe. In this study, we identify two crucial principles for the architecture and training of SEED that effectively ease subsequent alignment with LLMs. (1) Image tokens should be independent of 2D physical patch positions and instead be produced with a 1D causal dependency, exhibiting intrinsic interdependence that aligns with the left-to-right autoregressive prediction mechanism in LLMs. (2) Image tokens should capture high-level semantics consistent with the degree of semantic abstraction in words, and be optimized for both discriminativeness and reconstruction during the tokenizer training phase. As a result, the off-the-shelf LLM is able to perform both image-to-text and text-to-image generation by incorporating our SEED through efficient LoRA tuning. Comprehensive multimodal pretraining and instruction tuning, which may yield improved results, are reserved for future investigation. This version of SEED was trained in 5.7 days using only 64 V100 GPUs and 5M publicly available image-text pairs. Our preliminary study emphasizes the great potential of discrete visual tokens in versatile multimodal LLMs and the importance of proper image tokenizers in broader research.

The great success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has expanded the potential of multimodality, contributing to the gradual evolution of General Artificial Intelligence (AGI). A true AGI agent should not only possess the capability to perform predefined multi-tasks but also exhibit emergent abilities in an open-world context. However, despite the considerable advancements made by recent multimodal LLMs, they still fall short in effectively unifying comprehension and generation tasks, let alone open-world emergent abilities. We contend that the key to overcoming the present impasse lies in enabling text and images to be represented and processed interchangeably within a unified autoregressive Transformer. To this end, we introduce SEED, an elaborate image tokenizer that empowers LLMs with the ability to SEE and Draw at the same time. We identify two crucial design principles: (1) Image tokens should be independent of 2D physical patch positions and instead be produced with a 1D causal dependency, exhibiting intrinsic interdependence that aligns with the left-to-right autoregressive prediction mechanism in LLMs. (2) Image tokens should capture high-level semantics consistent with the degree of semantic abstraction in words, and be optimized for both discriminativeness and reconstruction during the tokenizer training phase. With SEED tokens, LLM is able to perform scalable multimodal autoregression under its original training recipe, i.e., next-word prediction. SEED-LLaMA is therefore produced by large-scale pretraining and instruction tuning on the interleaved textual and visual data, demonstrating impressive performance on a broad range of multimodal comprehension and generation tasks. More importantly, SEED-LLaMA has exhibited compositional emergent abilities such as multi-turn in-context multimodal generation, acting like your AI assistant.

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) requires the agent to navigate by following natural instructions under partial observability, making it difficult to align perception with language. Recent methods mitigate this by imagining future scenes, yet they rely on vision-based synthesis, leading to high computational cost and redundant details. To this end, we propose to adaptively imagine key environmental semantics via language form, enabling a more reliable and efficient strategy. Specifically, we introduce a novel Adaptive Text Dreamer (ATD), a dual-branch self-guided imagination policy built upon a large language model (LLM). ATD is designed with a human-like left-right brain architecture, where the left brain focuses on logical integration, and the right brain is responsible for imaginative prediction of future scenes. To achieve this, we fine-tune only the Q-former within both brains to efficiently activate domain-specific knowledge in the LLM, enabling dynamic updates of logical reasoning and imagination during navigation. Furthermore, we introduce a cross-interaction mechanism to regularize the imagined outputs and inject them into a navigation expert module, allowing ATD to jointly exploit both the reasoning capacity of the LLM and the expertise of the navigation model. We conduct extensive experiments on the R2R benchmark, where ATD achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer parameters. The code is https://github.com/zhangpingrui/Adaptive-Text-Dreamer{here}.

Using prompts to utilize language models to perform various downstream tasks, also known as prompt-based learning or prompt-learning, has lately gained significant success in comparison to the pre-train and fine-tune paradigm. Nonetheless, virtually all prompt-based methods are token-level, meaning they all utilize GPT's left-to-right language model or BERT's masked language model to perform cloze-style tasks. In this paper, we attempt to accomplish several NLP tasks in the zero-shot scenario using a BERT original pre-training task abandoned by RoBERTa and other models--Next Sentence Prediction (NSP). Unlike token-level techniques, our sentence-level prompt-based method NSP-BERT does not need to fix the length of the prompt or the position to be predicted, allowing it to handle tasks such as entity linking with ease. Based on the characteristics of NSP-BERT, we offer several quick building templates for various downstream tasks. We suggest a two-stage prompt method for word sense disambiguation tasks in particular. Our strategies for mapping the labels significantly enhance the model's performance on sentence pair tasks. On the FewCLUE benchmark, our NSP-BERT outperforms other zero-shot methods on most of these tasks and comes close to the few-shot methods.

Autoregressive (AR) language models and Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) constitute the two principal paradigms of large language models. However, both paradigms suffer from insufficient reasoning capabilities. Human reasoning inherently relies on causal knowledge and thought, which are reflected in natural language. But in the AR paradigm, language is modeled as next token prediction (a strictly left-to-right, token-by-token order), whereas natural language itself exhibits more flexible causal structures. In the DLM paradigm, the attention mechanism is fully connected, which entirely disregards causal order. To fill this gap, we propose a \textbf{C}ausal \textbf{C}oncept-Guided \textbf{D}iffusion \textbf{L}anguage \textbf{M}odel (C^2DLM). Starting from DLM's fully connected attention, C^2DLM first obtains a concept-level causal graph from the teacher model, and then explicitly guides attention to learn causal relationships between concepts. By focusing on causal relationships and avoiding interference from difficult subgoals involving causal inversion, C^2DLM improves 12\% with about 3.2 times training speedup in the COT-OrderPerturb task, and achieves an average gain of 1.31\% across six downstream reasoning tasks. More details in the repository ~https://github.com/Kairong-Han/C-2-DLM{here}.

Autoregressive (AR) models have long dominated the landscape of large language models, driving progress across a wide range of tasks. Recently, diffusion-based language models have emerged as a promising alternative, though their advantages over AR models remain underexplored. In this paper, we systematically study masked diffusion models in data-constrained settings-where training involves repeated passes over limited data-and find that they significantly outperform AR models when compute is abundant but data is scarce. Diffusion models make better use of repeated data, achieving lower validation loss and superior downstream performance. We interpret this advantage as implicit data augmentation: masked diffusion exposes the model to a diverse distribution of token orderings and prediction tasks, unlike AR's fixed left-to-right factorization. We find new scaling laws for diffusion models and derive a closed-form expression for the critical compute threshold at which diffusion begins to outperform AR. These results suggest that when data, not compute, is the bottleneck, diffusion models offer a compelling alternative to the standard AR paradigm. Our code is available at: https://diffusion-scaling.github.io.

This paper presents StereoNet, the first end-to-end deep architecture for real-time stereo matching that runs at 60 fps on an NVidia Titan X, producing high-quality, edge-preserved, quantization-free disparity maps. A key insight of this paper is that the network achieves a sub-pixel matching precision than is a magnitude higher than those of traditional stereo matching approaches. This allows us to achieve real-time performance by using a very low resolution cost volume that encodes all the information needed to achieve high disparity precision. Spatial precision is achieved by employing a learned edge-aware upsampling function. Our model uses a Siamese network to extract features from the left and right image. A first estimate of the disparity is computed in a very low resolution cost volume, then hierarchically the model re-introduces high-frequency details through a learned upsampling function that uses compact pixel-to-pixel refinement networks. Leveraging color input as a guide, this function is capable of producing high-quality edge-aware output. We achieve compelling results on multiple benchmarks, showing how the proposed method offers extreme flexibility at an acceptable computational budget.

Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) has become integral to code language models, enabling generation of missing code given both left and right contexts. However, the current FIM training paradigm, which reorders original training sequences and then performs regular next-token prediction (NTP), often leads to models struggling to generate content that aligns smoothly with the surrounding context. Crucially, while existing works rely on rule-based post-processing to circumvent this weakness, such methods are not practically usable in open-domain code completion tasks as they depend on restrictive, dataset-specific assumptions (e.g., generating the same number of lines as in the ground truth). Moreover, model performance on FIM tasks deteriorates significantly without these unrealistic assumptions. We hypothesize that NTP alone is insufficient for models to learn effective planning conditioned on the distant right context, a critical factor for successful code infilling. To overcome this, we propose Horizon-Length Prediction (HLP), a novel training objective that teaches models to predict the number of remaining middle tokens (i.e., horizon length) at each step. HLP advances FIM with lookahead planning, enabling models to inherently learn infilling boundaries for arbitrary left and right contexts without relying on dataset-specific post-processing. Our evaluation across different models and sizes shows that HLP significantly improves FIM performance by up to 24% relatively on diverse benchmarks, across file-level and repository-level, and without resorting to unrealistic post-processing methods. Furthermore, the enhanced planning capability gained through HLP boosts model performance on code reasoning. Importantly, HLP only incurs negligible training overhead and no additional inference cost, ensuring its practicality for real-world scenarios.

Modeling users' dynamic and evolving preferences from their historical behaviors is challenging and crucial for recommendation systems. Previous methods employ sequential neural networks (e.g., Recurrent Neural Network) to encode users' historical interactions from left to right into hidden representations for making recommendations. Although these methods achieve satisfactory results, they often assume a rigidly ordered sequence which is not always practical. We argue that such left-to-right unidirectional architectures restrict the power of the historical sequence representations. For this purpose, we introduce a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers for sequential Recommendation (BERT4Rec). However, jointly conditioning on both left and right context in deep bidirectional model would make the training become trivial since each item can indirectly "see the target item". To address this problem, we train the bidirectional model using the Cloze task, predicting the masked items in the sequence by jointly conditioning on their left and right context. Comparing with predicting the next item at each position in a sequence, the Cloze task can produce more samples to train a more powerful bidirectional model. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets show that our model outperforms various state-of-the-art sequential models consistently.

Language models usually use left-to-right (L2R) autoregressive factorization. However, L2R factorization may not always be the best inductive bias. Therefore, we investigate whether alternative factorizations of the text distribution could be beneficial in some tasks. We investigate right-to-left (R2L) training as a compelling alternative, focusing on multiple-choice questions (MCQs) as a test bed for knowledge extraction and reasoning. Through extensive experiments across various model sizes (2B-8B parameters) and training datasets, we find that R2L models can significantly outperform L2R models on several MCQ benchmarks, including logical reasoning, commonsense understanding, and truthfulness assessment tasks. Our analysis reveals that this performance difference may be fundamentally linked to multiple factors including calibration, computability and directional conditional entropy. We ablate the impact of these factors through controlled simulation studies using arithmetic tasks, where the impacting factors can be better disentangled. Our work demonstrates that exploring alternative factorizations of the text distribution can lead to improvements in LLM capabilities and provides theoretical insights into optimal factorization towards approximating human language distribution, and when each reasoning order might be more advantageous.

Autoregressive language models are trained exclusively left-to-right. We explore the complementary factorization, training right-to-left at scale, and ask what reasoning patterns emerge when a model conditions on future context to predict the past. We train LEDOM, an open-source purely reverse autoregressive language model (2B/7B parameters, 435B tokens), and find it develops capabilities distinct from forward models, including abductive inference, question synthesis, and natural resolution of the reversal curse. We then explore one application of the reverse model: combining forward likelihood P(y mid x) with reverse posterior P(x mid y) through noisy channel duality. We propose Reverse Reward, which reranks forward outputs using reverse posterior estimates, and prove that bidirectional scoring penalizes hallucinated reasoning chains whose backward reconstruction degrades. Reverse Reward yields gains of up to 6.6\% on AIME 2024 and 15\% on AMC 2023 across multiple strong baselines. We release all models, code, and data here.

Recent vision-language (VL) models are powerful, but can they reliably distinguish "right" from "left"? We curate three new corpora to quantify model comprehension of such basic spatial relations. These tests isolate spatial reasoning more precisely than existing datasets like VQAv2, e.g., our What'sUp benchmark contains sets of photographs varying only the spatial relations of objects, keeping their identity fixed (see Figure 1: models must comprehend not only the usual case of a dog under a table, but also, the same dog on top of the same table). We evaluate 18 VL models, finding that all perform poorly, e.g., BLIP finetuned on VQAv2, which nears human parity on VQAv2, achieves 56% accuracy on our benchmarks vs. humans at 99%. We conclude by studying causes of this surprising behavior, finding: 1) that popular vision-language pretraining corpora like LAION-2B contain little reliable data for learning spatial relationships; and 2) that basic modeling interventions like up-weighting preposition-containing instances or fine-tuning on our corpora are not sufficient to address the challenges our benchmarks pose. We are hopeful that these corpora will facilitate further research, and we release our data and code at https://github.com/amitakamath/whatsup_vlms.

Tokenization, the division of input text into input tokens, is an often overlooked aspect of the large language model (LLM) pipeline and could be the source of useful or harmful inductive biases. Historically, LLMs have relied on byte pair encoding, without care to specific input domains. With the increased use of LLMs for reasoning, various number-specific tokenization schemes have been adopted, with popular models like LLaMa and PaLM opting for single-digit tokenization while GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 have separate tokens for each 1-, 2-, and 3-digit numbers. In this work, we study the effect this choice has on numerical reasoning through the use of arithmetic tasks. We consider left-to-right and right-to-left tokenization for GPT-3.5 and -4, finding that right-to-left tokenization (enforced by comma separating numbers at inference time) leads to largely improved performance. Furthermore, we find that model errors when using standard left-to-right tokenization follow stereotyped error patterns, suggesting that model computations are systematic rather than approximate. We show that the model is able to convert between tokenizations easily, thus allowing chain-of-thought-inspired approaches to recover performance on left-to-right tokenized inputs. We also find the gap between tokenization directions decreases when models are scaled, possibly indicating that larger models are better able to override this tokenization-dependent inductive bias. In summary, our work performs the first study of how number tokenization choices lead to differences in model performance on arithmetic tasks, accompanied by a thorough analysis of error patterns. We hope this work inspires practitioners to more carefully ablate number tokenization-related choices when working towards general models of numerical reasoning.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into social decision-making, understanding their political positioning and alignment behavior is critical for safety and fairness. This study presents a sociotechnical audit of 26 prominent LLMs, triangulating their positions across three psychometric inventories (Political Compass, SapplyValues, 8 Values) and evaluating their performance on a large-scale news labeling task (N approx 27{,}000). Our results reveal a strong clustering of models in the Libertarian-Left region of the ideological space, encompassing 96.3% of the cohort. Alignment signals appear to be consistent architectural traits rather than stochastic noise (η^2 > 0.90); however, we identify substantial discrepancies in measurement validity. In particular, the Political Compass exhibits a strong negative correlation with cultural progressivism (r=-0.64) when compared against multi-axial instruments, suggesting a conflation of social conservatism with authoritarianism in this context. We further observe a significant divergence between open-weights and closed-source models, with the latter displaying markedly higher cultural progressivism scores (p<10^{-25}). In downstream media analysis, models exhibit a systematic "center-shift," frequently categorizing neutral articles as left-leaning, alongside an asymmetric detection capability in which "Far Left" content is identified with greater accuracy (19.2%) than "Far Right" content (2.0%). These findings suggest that single-axis evaluations are insufficient and that multidimensional auditing frameworks are necessary to characterize alignment behavior in deployed LLMs. Our code and data will be made public.

Previous studies demonstrate that word embeddings and part-of-speech (POS) tags are helpful for punctuation restoration tasks. However, two drawbacks still exist. One is that word embeddings are pre-trained by unidirectional language modeling objectives. Thus the word embeddings only contain left-to-right context information. The other is that POS tags are provided by an external POS tagger. So computation cost will be increased and incorrect predicted tags may affect the performance of restoring punctuation marks during decoding. This paper proposes adversarial transfer learning to address these problems. A pre-trained bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) model is used to initialize a punctuation model. Thus the transferred model parameters carry both left-to-right and right-to-left representations. Furthermore, adversarial multi-task learning is introduced to learn task invariant knowledge for punctuation prediction. We use an extra POS tagging task to help the training of the punctuation predicting task. Adversarial training is utilized to prevent the shared parameters from containing task specific information. We only use the punctuation predicting task to restore marks during decoding stage. Therefore, it will not need extra computation and not introduce incorrect tags from the POS tagger. Experiments are conducted on IWSLT2011 datasets. The results demonstrate that the punctuation predicting models obtain further performance improvement with task invariant knowledge from the POS tagging task. Our best model outperforms the previous state-of-the-art model trained only with lexical features by up to 9.2% absolute overall F_1-score on test set.

Spatial visualization is the mental ability to imagine, transform, and manipulate the spatial characteristics of objects and actions. This intelligence is a part of human cognition where actions and perception are connected on a mental level. To explore whether state-of-the-art Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit this ability, we develop MentalBlackboard, an open-ended spatial visualization benchmark for Paper Folding and Hole Punching tests within two core tasks: prediction and planning. Our prediction experiments reveal that models struggle with applying symmetrical transformations, even when they predict the sequence of unfolding steps correctly. Also, rotations introduce a significant challenge to the physical situational awareness for models. The planning task reveals limitations of models in analyzing symmetrical relationships and in implementing the multi-stage symmetry process, with Claude Opus 4.1 achieving the highest planning score at an accuracy of 10\%. The top-performing model, o3, attains a peak performance of 71.6\% on the generalization task, which does not require spatial visualization but transfers spatial data; however, it achieves only 25\% accuracy on text-based prediction tasks.

We investigate to what extent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) can accurately identify the orientation of input images rotated 0{\deg}, 90{\deg}, 180{\deg}, and 270{\deg}. This task demands robust visual reasoning capabilities to detect rotational cues and contextualize spatial relationships within images, regardless of their orientation. To evaluate MLLMs on these abilities, we introduce RotBench -- a 350-image manually-filtered benchmark comprising lifestyle, portrait, and landscape images. Despite the relatively simple nature of this task, we show that several state-of-the-art open and proprietary MLLMs, including GPT-5, o3, and Gemini-2.5-Pro, do not reliably identify rotation in input images. Providing models with auxiliary information -- including captions, depth maps, and more -- or using chain-of-thought prompting offers only small and inconsistent improvements. Our results indicate that most models are able to reliably identify right-side-up (0{\deg}) images, while certain models are able to identify upside-down (180{\deg}) images. None can reliably distinguish between 90{\deg} and 270{\deg}. Simultaneously showing the image rotated in different orientations leads to moderate performance gains for reasoning models, while a modified setup using voting improves the performance of weaker models. We further show that fine-tuning does not improve models' ability to distinguish 90{\deg} and 270{\deg} rotations, despite substantially improving the identification of 180{\deg} images. Together, these results reveal a significant gap between MLLMs' spatial reasoning capabilities and human perception in identifying rotation.

BatGPT is a large-scale language model designed and trained jointly by Wuhan University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University. It is capable of generating highly natural and fluent text in response to various types of input, including text prompts, images, and audio. In the modeling level, we employ a bidirectional autoregressive architecture that allows the model to efficiently capture the complex dependencies of natural language, making it highly effective in tasks such as language generation, dialog systems, and question answering. Moreover, the bidirectional autoregressive modeling not only operates from left to right but also from right to left, effectively reducing fixed memory effects and alleviating model hallucinations. In the training aspect, we propose a novel parameter expansion method for leveraging the pre-training of smaller models and employ reinforcement learning from both AI and human feedback, aimed at improving the model's alignment performance. Overall, these approaches significantly improve the effectiveness of BatGPT, and the model can be utilized for a wide range of natural language applications.

Language models have become the backbone of today's AI systems. However, their predominant left-to-right generation limits the use of bidirectional context, which is essential for tasks that involve filling text in the middle. We propose the Fill-in Language Model (FiLM), a new language modeling approach that allows for flexible generation at any position without adhering to a specific generation order. Its training extends the masked language modeling objective by adopting varying mask probabilities sampled from the Beta distribution to enhance the generative capabilities of FiLM. During inference, FiLM can seamlessly insert missing phrases, sentences, or paragraphs, ensuring that the outputs are fluent and are coherent with the surrounding context. In both automatic and human evaluations, FiLM outperforms existing infilling methods that rely on left-to-right language models trained on rearranged text segments. FiLM is easy to implement and can be either trained from scratch or fine-tuned from a left-to-right language model. Notably, as the model size grows, FiLM's perplexity approaches that of strong left-to-right language models of similar sizes, indicating FiLM's scalability and potential as a large language model.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically trained to predict in the forward direction of time. However, recent works have shown that prompting these models to look back and critique their own generations can produce useful feedback. Motivated by this, we explore the question of whether LLMs can be empowered to think (predict and score) backwards to provide unsupervised feedback that complements forward LLMs. Towards this, we introduce Time Reversed Language Models (TRLMs), which can score and generate queries when conditioned on responses, effectively functioning in the reverse direction of time. Further, to effectively infer in the response to query direction, we pre-train and fine-tune a language model (TRLM-Ba) in the reverse token order from scratch. We show empirically (and theoretically in a stylized setting) that time-reversed models can indeed complement forward model predictions when used to score the query given response for re-ranking multiple forward generations. We obtain up to 5\% improvement on the widely used AlpacaEval Leaderboard over the competent baseline of best-of-N re-ranking using self log-perplexity scores. We further show that TRLM scoring outperforms conventional forward scoring of response given query, resulting in significant gains in applications such as citation generation and passage retrieval. We next leverage the generative ability of TRLM to augment or provide unsupervised feedback to input safety filters of LLMs, demonstrating a drastic reduction in false negative rate with negligible impact on false positive rates against several attacks published on the popular JailbreakBench leaderboard.

Essential to visual generation is efficient modeling of visual data priors. Conventional next-token prediction methods define the process as learning the conditional probability distribution of successive tokens. Recently, next-scale prediction methods redefine the process to learn the distribution over multi-scale representations, significantly reducing generation latency. However, these methods condition each scale on all previous scales and require each token to consider all preceding tokens, exhibiting scale and spatial redundancy. To better model the distribution by mitigating redundancy, we propose Markovian Visual AutoRegressive modeling (MVAR), a novel autoregressive framework that introduces scale and spatial Markov assumptions to reduce the complexity of conditional probability modeling. Specifically, we introduce a scale-Markov trajectory that only takes as input the features of adjacent preceding scale for next-scale prediction, enabling the adoption of a parallel training strategy that significantly reduces GPU memory consumption. Furthermore, we propose spatial-Markov attention, which restricts the attention of each token to a localized neighborhood of size k at corresponding positions on adjacent scales, rather than attending to every token across these scales, for the pursuit of reduced modeling complexity. Building on these improvements, we reduce the computational complexity of attention calculation from O(N^2) to O(Nk), enabling training with just eight NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPUs and eliminating the need for KV cache during inference. Extensive experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that MVAR achieves comparable or superior performance with both small model trained from scratch and large fine-tuned models, while reducing the average GPU memory footprint by 3.0x.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price prediction. The majority of literature has been devoted to predicting either the actual asset price or the direction of price movement. In this paper, we study a hitherto little explored question of predicting significant changes in stock price based on previous changes using machine learning algorithms. We are particularly interested in the performance of neural network classifiers in the given context. To this end, we construct and test three neural network models including multi-layer perceptron, convolutional net, and long short term memory net. As benchmark models we use random forest and relative strength index methods. The models are tested using 10-year daily stock price data of four major US public companies. Test results show that predicting significant changes in stock price can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy. In particular, we obtain substantially better results than similar studies that forecast the direction of price change.

We explore the task of predicting the leading political ideology or bias of news articles. First, we collect and release a large dataset of 34,737 articles that were manually annotated for political ideology -left, center, or right-, which is well-balanced across both topics and media. We further use a challenging experimental setup where the test examples come from media that were not seen during training, which prevents the model from learning to detect the source of the target news article instead of predicting its political ideology. From a modeling perspective, we propose an adversarial media adaptation, as well as a specially adapted triplet loss. We further add background information about the source, and we show that it is quite helpful for improving article-level prediction. Our experimental results show very sizable improvements over using state-of-the-art pre-trained Transformers in this challenging setup.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Although contrastive and other representation-learning methods have long been explored in vision and NLP, their adoption in modern time series forecasters remains limited. We believe they hold strong promise for this domain. To unlock this potential, we explicitly align past and future representations, thereby bridging the distributional gap between input histories and future targets. To this end, we introduce TimeAlign, a lightweight, plug-and-play framework that establishes a new representation paradigm, distinct from contrastive learning, by aligning auxiliary features via a simple reconstruction task and feeding them back into any base forecaster. Extensive experiments across eight benchmarks verify its superior performance. Further studies indicate that the gains arise primarily from correcting frequency mismatches between historical inputs and future outputs. Additionally, we provide two theoretical justifications for how reconstruction improves forecasting generalization and how alignment increases the mutual information between learned representations and predicted targets. The code is available at https://github.com/TROUBADOUR000/TimeAlign.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Language models have demonstrated impressive ability in context understanding and generative performance. Inspired by the recent success of language foundation models, in this paper, we propose LMTraj (Language-based Multimodal Trajectory predictor), which recasts the trajectory prediction task into a sort of question-answering problem. Departing from traditional numerical regression models, which treat the trajectory coordinate sequence as continuous signals, we consider them as discrete signals like text prompts. Specially, we first transform an input space for the trajectory coordinate into the natural language space. Here, the entire time-series trajectories of pedestrians are converted into a text prompt, and scene images are described as text information through image captioning. The transformed numerical and image data are then wrapped into the question-answering template for use in a language model. Next, to guide the language model in understanding and reasoning high-level knowledge, such as scene context and social relationships between pedestrians, we introduce an auxiliary multi-task question and answering. We then train a numerical tokenizer with the prompt data. We encourage the tokenizer to separate the integer and decimal parts well, and leverage it to capture correlations between the consecutive numbers in the language model. Lastly, we train the language model using the numerical tokenizer and all of the question-answer prompts. Here, we propose a beam-search-based most-likely prediction and a temperature-based multimodal prediction to implement both deterministic and stochastic inferences. Applying our LMTraj, we show that the language-based model can be a powerful pedestrian trajectory predictor, and outperforms existing numerical-based predictor methods. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/LMTrajectory .

We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a time asymmetry in their ability to learn natural language: a difference in the average log-perplexity when trying to predict the next token versus when trying to predict the previous one. This difference is at the same time subtle and very consistent across various modalities (language, model size, training time, ...). Theoretically, this is surprising: from an information-theoretic point of view, there should be no such difference. We provide a theoretical framework to explain how such an asymmetry can appear from sparsity and computational complexity considerations, and outline a number of perspectives opened by our results.

Many visual recognition models are evaluated only on their classification accuracy, a metric for which they obtain strong performance. In this paper, we investigate whether computer vision models can also provide correct rationales for their predictions. We propose a ``doubly right'' object recognition benchmark, where the metric requires the model to simultaneously produce both the right labels as well as the right rationales. We find that state-of-the-art visual models, such as CLIP, often provide incorrect rationales for their categorical predictions. However, by transferring the rationales from language models into visual representations through a tailored dataset, we show that we can learn a ``why prompt,'' which adapts large visual representations to produce correct rationales. Visualizations and empirical experiments show that our prompts significantly improve performance on doubly right object recognition, in addition to zero-shot transfer to unseen tasks and datasets.

We cast real-world humanoid control as a next token prediction problem, akin to predicting the next word in language. Our model is a causal transformer trained via autoregressive prediction of sensorimotor trajectories. To account for the multi-modal nature of the data, we perform prediction in a modality-aligned way, and for each input token predict the next token from the same modality. This general formulation enables us to leverage data with missing modalities, like video trajectories without actions. We train our model on a collection of simulated trajectories coming from prior neural network policies, model-based controllers, motion capture data, and YouTube videos of humans. We show that our model enables a full-sized humanoid to walk in San Francisco zero-shot. Our model can transfer to the real world even when trained on only 27 hours of walking data, and can generalize to commands not seen during training like walking backward. These findings suggest a promising path toward learning challenging real-world control tasks by generative modeling of sensorimotor trajectories.

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

Transformers were originally proposed as a sequence-to-sequence model for text but have become vital for a wide range of modalities, including images, audio, video, and undirected graphs. However, transformers for directed graphs are a surprisingly underexplored topic, despite their applicability to ubiquitous domains including source code and logic circuits. In this work, we propose two direction- and structure-aware positional encodings for directed graphs: (1) the eigenvectors of the Magnetic Laplacian - a direction-aware generalization of the combinatorial Laplacian; (2) directional random walk encodings. Empirically, we show that the extra directionality information is useful in various downstream tasks, including correctness testing of sorting networks and source code understanding. Together with a data-flow-centric graph construction, our model outperforms the prior state of the art on the Open Graph Benchmark Code2 relatively by 14.7%.

We investigate the emergence of intuitive physics understanding in general-purpose deep neural network models trained to predict masked regions in natural videos. Leveraging the violation-of-expectation framework, we find that video prediction models trained to predict outcomes in a learned representation space demonstrate an understanding of various intuitive physics properties, such as object permanence and shape consistency. In contrast, video prediction in pixel space and multimodal large language models, which reason through text, achieve performance closer to chance. Our comparisons of these architectures reveal that jointly learning an abstract representation space while predicting missing parts of sensory input, akin to predictive coding, is sufficient to acquire an understanding of intuitive physics, and that even models trained on one week of unique video achieve above chance performance. This challenges the idea that core knowledge -- a set of innate systems to help understand the world -- needs to be hardwired to develop an understanding of intuitive physics.

One of the key shortcomings in current text-to-image (T2I) models is their inability to consistently generate images which faithfully follow the spatial relationships specified in the text prompt. In this paper, we offer a comprehensive investigation of this limitation, while also developing datasets and methods that achieve state-of-the-art performance. First, we find that current vision-language datasets do not represent spatial relationships well enough; to alleviate this bottleneck, we create SPRIGHT, the first spatially-focused, large scale dataset, by re-captioning 6 million images from 4 widely used vision datasets. Through a 3-fold evaluation and analysis pipeline, we find that SPRIGHT largely improves upon existing datasets in capturing spatial relationships. To demonstrate its efficacy, we leverage only ~0.25% of SPRIGHT and achieve a 22% improvement in generating spatially accurate images while also improving the FID and CMMD scores. Secondly, we find that training on images containing a large number of objects results in substantial improvements in spatial consistency. Notably, we attain state-of-the-art on T2I-CompBench with a spatial score of 0.2133, by fine-tuning on <500 images. Finally, through a set of controlled experiments and ablations, we document multiple findings that we believe will enhance the understanding of factors that affect spatial consistency in text-to-image models. We publicly release our dataset and model to foster further research in this area.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

The analysis of political biases in large language models (LLMs) has primarily examined these systems as single entities with fixed viewpoints. While various methods exist for measuring such biases, the impact of persona-based prompting on LLMs' political orientation remains unexplored. In this work we leverage PersonaHub, a collection of synthetic persona descriptions, to map the political distribution of persona-based prompted LLMs using the Political Compass Test (PCT). We then examine whether these initial compass distributions can be manipulated through explicit ideological prompting towards diametrically opposed political orientations: right-authoritarian and left-libertarian. Our experiments reveal that synthetic personas predominantly cluster in the left-libertarian quadrant, with models demonstrating varying degrees of responsiveness when prompted with explicit ideological descriptors. While all models demonstrate significant shifts towards right-authoritarian positions, they exhibit more limited shifts towards left-libertarian positions, suggesting an asymmetric response to ideological manipulation that may reflect inherent biases in model training.

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

Textual Inversion (TI) is an efficient approach to text-to-image personalization but often fails on complex prompts. We trace these failures to embedding norm inflation: learned tokens drift to out-of-distribution magnitudes, degrading prompt conditioning in pre-norm Transformers. Empirically, we show semantics are primarily encoded by direction in CLIP token space, while inflated norms harm contextualization; theoretically, we analyze how large magnitudes attenuate positional information and hinder residual updates in pre-norm blocks. We propose Directional Textual Inversion (DTI), which fixes the embedding magnitude to an in-distribution scale and optimizes only direction on the unit hypersphere via Riemannian SGD. We cast direction learning as MAP with a von Mises-Fisher prior, yielding a constant-direction prior gradient that is simple and efficient to incorporate. Across personalization tasks, DTI improves text fidelity over TI and TI-variants while maintaining subject similarity. Crucially, DTI's hyperspherical parameterization enables smooth, semantically coherent interpolation between learned concepts (slerp), a capability that is absent in standard TI. Our findings suggest that direction-only optimization is a robust and scalable path for prompt-faithful personalization.

Neural end-to-end TTS can generate very high-quality synthesized speech, and even close to human recording within similar domain text. However, it performs unsatisfactory when scaling it to challenging test sets. One concern is that the encoder-decoder with attention-based network adopts autoregressive generative sequence model with the limitation of "exposure bias" To address this issue, we propose two novel methods, which learn to predict future by improving agreement between forward and backward decoding sequence. The first one is achieved by introducing divergence regularization terms into model training objective to reduce the mismatch between two directional models, namely L2R and R2L (which generates targets from left-to-right and right-to-left, respectively). While the second one operates on decoder-level and exploits the future information during decoding. In addition, we employ a joint training strategy to allow forward and backward decoding to improve each other in an interactive process. Experimental results show our proposed methods especially the second one (bidirectional decoder regularization), leads a significantly improvement on both robustness and overall naturalness, as outperforming baseline (the revised version of Tacotron2) with a MOS gap of 0.14 in a challenging test, and achieving close to human quality (4.42 vs. 4.49 in MOS) on general test.

How can we predict future interaction trajectories of human hands in a scene given high-level colloquial task specifications in the form of natural language? In this paper, we extend the classic hand trajectory prediction task to two tasks involving explicit or implicit language queries. Our proposed tasks require extensive understanding of human daily activities and reasoning abilities about what should be happening next given cues from the current scene. We also develop new benchmarks to evaluate the proposed two tasks, Vanilla Hand Prediction (VHP) and Reasoning-Based Hand Prediction (RBHP). We enable solving these tasks by integrating high-level world knowledge and reasoning capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) with the auto-regressive nature of low-level ego-centric hand trajectories. Our model, HandsOnVLM is a novel VLM that can generate textual responses and produce future hand trajectories through natural-language conversations. Our experiments show that HandsOnVLM outperforms existing task-specific methods and other VLM baselines on proposed tasks, and demonstrates its ability to effectively utilize world knowledge for reasoning about low-level human hand trajectories based on the provided context. Our website contains code and detailed video results https://www.chenbao.tech/handsonvlm/

We first adopt a human-guided machine learning framework to develop a new dataset for hyperpartisan news title detection with 2,200 manually labeled and 1.8 million machine-labeled titles that were posted from 2014 to the present by nine representative media organizations across three media bias groups - Left, Central, and Right in an active learning manner. The fine-tuned transformer-based language model achieves an overall accuracy of 0.84 and an F1 score of 0.78 on an external validation set. Next, we conduct a computational analysis to quantify the extent and dynamics of partisanship in news titles. While some aspects are as expected, our study reveals new or nuanced differences between the three media groups. We find that overall the Right media tends to use proportionally more hyperpartisan titles. Roughly around the 2016 Presidential Election, the proportions of hyperpartisan titles increased in all media bias groups where the relative increase in the proportion of hyperpartisan titles of the Left media was the most. We identify three major topics including foreign issues, political systems, and societal issues that are suggestive of hyperpartisanship in news titles using logistic regression models and the Shapley values. Through an analysis of the topic distribution, we find that societal issues gradually receive more attention from all media groups. We further apply a lexicon-based language analysis tool to the titles of each topic and quantify the linguistic distance between any pairs of the three media groups. Three distinct patterns are discovered. The Left media is linguistically more different from Central and Right in terms of foreign issues. The linguistic distance between the three media groups becomes smaller over recent years. In addition, a seasonal pattern where linguistic difference is associated with elections is observed for societal issues.

Visual autoregressive models typically adhere to a raster-order ``next-token prediction" paradigm, which overlooks the spatial and temporal locality inherent in visual content. Specifically, visual tokens exhibit significantly stronger correlations with their spatially or temporally adjacent tokens compared to those that are distant. In this paper, we propose Neighboring Autoregressive Modeling (NAR), a novel paradigm that formulates autoregressive visual generation as a progressive outpainting procedure, following a near-to-far ``next-neighbor prediction" mechanism. Starting from an initial token, the remaining tokens are decoded in ascending order of their Manhattan distance from the initial token in the spatial-temporal space, progressively expanding the boundary of the decoded region. To enable parallel prediction of multiple adjacent tokens in the spatial-temporal space, we introduce a set of dimension-oriented decoding heads, each predicting the next token along a mutually orthogonal dimension. During inference, all tokens adjacent to the decoded tokens are processed in parallel, substantially reducing the model forward steps for generation. Experiments on ImageNet256times 256 and UCF101 demonstrate that NAR achieves 2.4times and 8.6times higher throughput respectively, while obtaining superior FID/FVD scores for both image and video generation tasks compared to the PAR-4X approach. When evaluating on text-to-image generation benchmark GenEval, NAR with 0.8B parameters outperforms Chameleon-7B while using merely 0.4 of the training data. Code is available at https://github.com/ThisisBillhe/NAR.

Despite their remarkable success in language modeling, transformers trained to predict the next token in a sequence struggle with long-term planning. This limitation is particularly evident in tasks requiring foresight to plan multiple steps ahead such as maze navigation. The standard next single token prediction objective, however, offers no explicit mechanism to predict multiple steps ahead - or revisit the path taken so far. Consequently, in this work we study whether explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead (and backwards) can improve transformers' maze navigation. We train parameter-matched transformers from scratch, under identical settings, to navigate mazes of varying types and sizes with standard next token prediction and MLM-U, an objective explicitly predicting multiple steps ahead and backwards. We find that MLM-U considerably improves transformers' ability to navigate mazes compared to standard next token prediction across maze types and complexities. We also find MLM-U training is 4x more sample efficient and converges 2x faster in terms of GPU training hours relative to next token training. Finally, for more complex mazes we find MLM-U benefits from scaling to larger transformers. Remarkably, we find transformers trained with MLM-U outperform larger transformers trained with next token prediction using additional supervision from A* search traces. We hope these findings underscore the promise of learning objectives to advance transformers' capacity for long-term planning.

The dominant paradigm for neural text generation is left-to-right decoding from autoregressive language models. Constrained or controllable generation under complex lexical constraints, however, requires foresight to plan ahead feasible future paths. Drawing inspiration from the A* search algorithm, we propose NeuroLogic A*esque, a decoding algorithm that incorporates heuristic estimates of future cost. We develop efficient lookahead heuristics that are efficient for large-scale language models, making our method a drop-in replacement for common techniques such as beam search and top-k sampling. To enable constrained generation, we build on NeuroLogic decoding (Lu et al., 2021), combining its flexibility in incorporating logical constraints with A*esque estimates of future constraint satisfaction. Our approach outperforms competitive baselines on five generation tasks, and achieves new state-of-the-art performance on table-to-text generation, constrained machine translation, and keyword-constrained generation. The improvements are particularly notable on tasks that require complex constraint satisfaction or in few-shot or zero-shot settings. NeuroLogic A*esque illustrates the power of decoding for improving and enabling new capabilities of large-scale language models.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Using token representation from bidirectional language models (LMs) such as BERT is still a widely used approach for token-classification tasks. Even though there exist much larger unidirectional LMs such as Llama-2, they are rarely used to replace the token representation of bidirectional LMs. In this work, we hypothesize that their lack of bidirectionality is keeping them behind. To that end, we propose to newly train a small backward LM and concatenate its representations to those of existing LM for downstream tasks. Through experiments in named entity recognition, we demonstrate that introducing backward model improves the benchmark performance more than 10 points. Furthermore, we show that the proposed method is especially effective for rare domains and in few-shot learning settings.

In egocentric scenarios, anticipating both the next action and its visual outcome is essential for understanding human-object interactions and for enabling robotic planning. However, existing paradigms fall short of jointly modeling these aspects. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models focus on action prediction but lack explicit modeling of how actions influence the visual scene, while video prediction models generate future frames without conditioning on specific actions, often resulting in implausible or contextually inconsistent outcomes. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified two-stage predictive framework that jointly models action and visual future in egocentric scenarios, conditioned on hand trajectories. In the first stage, we perform consecutive state modeling to process heterogeneous inputs (visual observations, language, and action history) and explicitly predict future hand trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce causal cross-attention to fuse multi-modal cues, leveraging inferred action signals to guide an image-based Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) for frame-by-frame future video generation. Our approach is the first unified model designed to handle both egocentric human activity understanding and robotic manipulation tasks, providing explicit predictions of both upcoming actions and their visual consequences. Extensive experiments on Ego4D, BridgeData, and RLBench demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both action prediction and future video synthesis.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

Linear Transformers and State Space Models have emerged as efficient alternatives to softmax Transformers for causal sequence modeling, enabling parallel training via matrix multiplication and efficient RNN-style inference. However, despite their success in causal tasks, no unified framework exists for applying Linear Transformers to bidirectional sequence modeling. We introduce LION, the first framework to systematically extend Linear Transformers to the bidirectional setting. LION generalizes three core representations commonly used in the causal case - full Linear Attention , bidirectional RNN, and chunkwise parallel form - to the bidirectional setting. These forms are theoretically equivalent and enable models to exploit the strengths of each during training and inference. We prove that a broad class of Linear Transformers can be extended using LION and validate our framework via three core examples based on the choice of decay type: LION-LIT, the bidirectional extension of arXiv:2006.16236; LION-D, based on arXiv:2307.08621; and LION-S, a variant using selective decay arXiv:2103.02143, arXiv:2312.0075. Across standard bidirectional tasks, LION enables models to match or exceed the performance of softmax Transformers, while offering significantly faster training and more efficient inference than existing State Space Models.

Recent studies have highlighted a phenomenon in large language models (LLMs) known as "the reversal curse," in which the order of knowledge entities in the training data biases the models' comprehension. For example, if a model is trained on sentences where entity A consistently appears before entity B, it can respond to queries about A by providing B as the answer. However, it may encounter confusion when presented with questions concerning B. We contend that the reversal curse is partially a result of specific model training objectives, particularly evident in the prevalent use of the next-token prediction within most causal language models. For the next-token prediction, models solely focus on a token's preceding context, resulting in a restricted comprehension of the input. In contrast, we illustrate that the GLM, trained using the autoregressive blank infilling objective where tokens to be predicted have access to the entire context, exhibits better resilience against the reversal curse. We propose a novel training method, BIdirectional Casual language modeling Optimization (BICO), designed to mitigate the reversal curse when fine-tuning pretrained causal language models on new data. BICO modifies the causal attention mechanism to function bidirectionally and employs a mask denoising optimization. In the task designed to assess the reversal curse, our approach improves Llama's accuracy from the original 0% to around 70%. We hope that more attention can be focused on exploring and addressing these inherent weaknesses of the current LLMs, in order to achieve a higher level of intelligence.

Language models strongly rely on frequency information because they maximize the likelihood of tokens during pre-training. As a consequence, language models tend to not generalize well to tokens that are seldom seen during training. Moreover, maximum likelihood training has been discovered to give rise to anisotropy: representations of tokens in a model tend to cluster tightly in a high-dimensional cone, rather than spreading out over their representational capacity. Our work introduces a method for quantifying the frequency bias of a language model by assessing sentence-level perplexity with respect to token-level frequency. We then present a method for reducing the frequency bias of a language model by inducing a syntactic prior over token representations during pre-training. Our Syntactic Smoothing method adjusts the maximum likelihood objective function to distribute the learning signal to syntactically similar tokens. This approach results in better performance on infrequent English tokens and a decrease in anisotropy. We empirically show that the degree of anisotropy in a model correlates with its frequency bias.

We present the "Law of Vision Representation" in multimodal large language models (MLLMs). It reveals a strong correlation between the combination of cross-modal alignment, correspondence in vision representation, and MLLM performance. We quantify the two factors using the cross-modal Alignment and Correspondence score (AC score). Through extensive experiments involving thirteen different vision representation settings and evaluations across eight benchmarks, we find that the AC score is linearly correlated to model performance. By leveraging this relationship, we are able to identify and train the optimal vision representation only, which does not require finetuning the language model every time, resulting in a 99.7% reduction in computational cost.

During the radiotherapy treatment of patients with lung cancer, the radiation delivered to healthy tissue around the tumor needs to be minimized, which is difficult because of respiratory motion and the latency of linear accelerator systems. In the proposed study, we first use the Lucas-Kanade pyramidal optical flow algorithm to perform deformable image registration of chest computed tomography scan images of four patients with lung cancer. We then track three internal points close to the lung tumor based on the previously computed deformation field and predict their position with a recurrent neural network (RNN) trained using real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) and gradient clipping. The breathing data is quite regular, sampled at approximately 2.5Hz, and includes artificial drift in the spine direction. The amplitude of the motion of the tracked points ranged from 12.0mm to 22.7mm. Finally, we propose a simple method for recovering and predicting 3D tumor images from the tracked points and the initial tumor image based on a linear correspondence model and Nadaraya-Watson non-linear regression. The root-mean-square error, maximum error, and jitter corresponding to the RNN prediction on the test set were smaller than the same performance measures obtained with linear prediction and least mean squares (LMS). In particular, the maximum prediction error associated with the RNN, equal to 1.51mm, is respectively 16.1% and 5.0% lower than the maximum error associated with linear prediction and LMS. The average prediction time per time step with RTRL is equal to 119ms, which is less than the 400ms marker position sampling time. The tumor position in the predicted images appears visually correct, which is confirmed by the high mean cross-correlation between the original and predicted images, equal to 0.955.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

We empirically study autoregressive pre-training from videos. To perform our study, we construct a series of autoregressive video models, called Toto. We treat videos as sequences of visual tokens and train transformer models to autoregressively predict future tokens. Our models are pre-trained on a diverse dataset of videos and images comprising over 1 trillion visual tokens. We explore different architectural, training, and inference design choices. We evaluate the learned visual representations on a range of downstream tasks including image recognition, video classification, object tracking, and robotics. Our results demonstrate that, despite minimal inductive biases, autoregressive pre-training leads to competitive performance across all benchmarks. Finally, we find that scaling our video models results in similar scaling curves to those seen in language models, albeit with a different rate. More details at https://brjathu.github.io/toto/

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

Traffic forecasting represents a crucial problem within intelligent transportation systems. In recent research, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising method, but their intrinsic design, tailored primarily for sequential token processing, introduces notable challenges in effectively capturing spatial dependencies. Specifically, the inherent limitations of LLMs in modeling spatial relationships and their architectural incompatibility with graph-structured spatial data remain largely unaddressed. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ST-LINK, a novel framework that enhances the capability of Large Language Models to capture spatio-temporal dependencies. Its key components are Spatially-Enhanced Attention (SE-Attention) and the Memory Retrieval Feed-Forward Network (MRFFN). SE-Attention extends rotary position embeddings to integrate spatial correlations as direct rotational transformations within the attention mechanism. This approach maximizes spatial learning while preserving the LLM's inherent sequential processing structure. Meanwhile, MRFFN dynamically retrieves and utilizes key historical patterns to capture complex temporal dependencies and improve the stability of long-term forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that ST-LINK surpasses conventional deep learning and LLM approaches, and effectively captures both regular traffic patterns and abrupt changes.

Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of high-quality visual representations in image generation and have highlighted the limitations of generative models in image understanding. As a generative paradigm originally designed for natural language, autoregressive models face similar challenges. In this work, we present the first systematic investigation into the mechanisms of applying the next-token prediction paradigm to the visual domain. We identify three key properties that hinder the learning of high-level visual semantics: local and conditional dependence, inter-step semantic inconsistency, and spatial invariance deficiency. We show that these issues can be effectively addressed by introducing self-supervised objectives during training, leading to a novel training framework, Self-guided Training for AutoRegressive models (ST-AR). Without relying on pre-trained representation models, ST-AR significantly enhances the image understanding ability of autoregressive models and leads to improved generation quality. Specifically, ST-AR brings approximately 42% FID improvement for LlamaGen-L and 49% FID improvement for LlamaGen-XL, while maintaining the same sampling strategy.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Predicting the motion of other agents in a scene is highly relevant for autonomous driving, as it allows a self-driving car to anticipate. Inspired by the success of decoder-only models for language modeling, we propose DONUT, a Decoder-Only Network for Unrolling Trajectories. Unlike existing encoder-decoder forecasting models, we encode historical trajectories and predict future trajectories with a single autoregressive model. This allows the model to make iterative predictions in a consistent manner, and ensures that the model is always provided with up-to-date information, thereby enhancing performance. Furthermore, inspired by multi-token prediction for language modeling, we introduce an 'overprediction' strategy that gives the model the auxiliary task of predicting trajectories at longer temporal horizons. This allows the model to better anticipate the future and further improves performance. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our decoder-only approach outperforms the encoder-decoder baseline, and achieves new state-of-the-art results on the Argoverse 2 single-agent motion forecasting benchmark.

Misalignment between model predictions and intended usage can be detrimental for the deployment of computer vision models. The issue is exacerbated when the task involves complex structured outputs, as it becomes harder to design procedures which address this misalignment. In natural language processing, this is often addressed using reinforcement learning techniques that align models with a task reward. We adopt this approach and show its surprising effectiveness across multiple computer vision tasks, such as object detection, panoptic segmentation, colorization and image captioning. We believe this approach has the potential to be widely useful for better aligning models with a diverse range of computer vision tasks.

Chart understanding is crucial for deploying multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in real-world scenarios such as analyzing scientific papers and technical reports. Unlike natural images, charts pair a structured visual layout (spatial property) with an underlying data representation (textual property) -- grasping both is essential for precise, fine-grained chart reasoning. Motivated by this observation, we propose START, the Spatial and Textual learning for chART understanding. Specifically, we introduce (i) chart-element grounding and (ii) chart-to-code generation to strengthen an MLLM's understanding of both chart visual layout and data details. To facilitate spatial and textual learning, we propose the START-Dataset generated with a novel data-generation pipeline that first leverages an MLLM to translate real chart images into executable chart code, recovering the underlying data representation while preserving the visual distribution of real-world charts. We then evolve the code with a Large Language Model (LLM) to ascertain the positions of chart elements that capture the chart's visual structure, addressing challenges that existing methods cannot handle. To evaluate a model's ability to understand chart spatial structures, we propose the Chart Spatial understanding Benchmark (CS-Bench), filling a critical gap in comprehensive chart understanding evaluation. Leveraging spatial and textual learning, START delivers consistent gains across model sizes and benchmarks over the base models and surpasses prior state-of-the-art by a clear margin. Code, data and models will be publicly available.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

Humans experience the world through constantly changing visual stimuli, where scenes can shift and move, change in appearance, and vary in distance. The dynamic nature of visual perception is a fundamental aspect of our daily lives, yet the large majority of research on object and scene processing, particularly using fMRI, has focused on static stimuli. While studies of static image perception are attractive due to their computational simplicity, they impose a strong non-naturalistic constraint on our investigation of human vision. In contrast, dynamic visual stimuli offer a more ecologically-valid approach but present new challenges due to the interplay between spatial and temporal information, making it difficult to disentangle the representations of stable image features and motion. To overcome this limitation -- given dynamic inputs, we explicitly decouple the modeling of static image representations and motion representations in the human brain. Three results demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. First, we show that visual motion information as optical flow can be predicted (or decoded) from brain activity as measured by fMRI. Second, we show that this predicted motion can be used to realistically animate static images using a motion-conditioned video diffusion model (where the motion is driven by fMRI brain activity). Third, we show prediction in the reverse direction: existing video encoders can be fine-tuned to predict fMRI brain activity from video imagery, and can do so more effectively than image encoders. This foundational work offers a novel, extensible framework for interpreting how the human brain processes dynamic visual information.

Fine-tuning continuous prompts for target tasks has recently emerged as a compact alternative to full model fine-tuning. Motivated by these promising results, we investigate the feasibility of extracting a discrete (textual) interpretation of continuous prompts that is faithful to the problem they solve. In practice, we observe a "wayward" behavior between the task solved by continuous prompts and their nearest neighbor discrete projections: We can find continuous prompts that solve a task while being projected to an arbitrary text (e.g., definition of a different or even a contradictory task), while being within a very small (2%) margin of the best continuous prompt of the same size for the task. We provide intuitions behind this odd and surprising behavior, as well as extensive empirical analyses quantifying the effect of various parameters. For instance, for larger model sizes we observe higher waywardness, i.e, we can find prompts that more closely map to any arbitrary text with a smaller drop in accuracy. These findings have important implications relating to the difficulty of faithfully interpreting continuous prompts and their generalization across models and tasks, providing guidance for future progress in prompting language models.

Transformer language models (LMs) have been shown to represent concepts as directions in the latent space of hidden activations. However, for any given human-interpretable concept, how can we find its direction in the latent space? We present a technique called linear relational concepts (LRC) for finding concept directions corresponding to human-interpretable concepts at a given hidden layer in a transformer LM by first modeling the relation between subject and object as a linear relational embedding (LRE). While the LRE work was mainly presented as an exercise in understanding model representations, we find that inverting the LRE while using earlier object layers results in a powerful technique to find concept directions that both work well as a classifier and causally influence model outputs.

Tabular representation learning has recently gained a lot of attention. However, existing approaches only learn a representation from a single table, and thus ignore the potential to learn from the full structure of relational databases, including neighboring tables that can contain important information for a contextualized representation. Moreover, current models are significantly limited in scale, which prevents that they learn from large databases. In this paper, we thus introduce our vision of relational representation learning, that can not only learn from the full relational structure, but also can scale to larger database sizes that are commonly found in real-world. Moreover, we also discuss opportunities and challenges we see along the way to enable this vision and present initial very promising results. Overall, we argue that this direction can lead to foundation models for relational databases that are today only available for text and images.

This work aims to predict channels in wireless communication systems based on noisy observations, utilizing sequence-to-sequence models with attention (Seq2Seq-attn) and transformer models. Both models are adapted from natural language processing to tackle the complex challenge of channel prediction. Additionally, a new technique called reverse positional encoding is introduced in the transformer model to improve the robustness of the model against varying sequence lengths. Similarly, the encoder outputs of the Seq2Seq-attn model are reversed before applying attention. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ordering techniques allow the models to better capture the relationships between the channel snapshots within the sequence, irrespective of the sequence length, as opposed to existing methods.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data types, such as graphs, the canonical ordering is less obvious. To address this problem, we introduce a variant of ARM that generates high-dimensional data using a probabilistic ordering that is sequentially inferred from data. This model incorporates a trainable probability distribution, referred to as an order-policy, that dynamically decides the autoregressive order in a state-dependent manner. To train the model, we introduce a variational lower bound on the exact log-likelihood, which we optimize with stochastic gradient estimation. We demonstrate experimentally that our method can learn meaningful autoregressive orderings in image and graph generation. On the challenging domain of molecular graph generation, we achieve state-of-the-art results on the QM9 and ZINC250k benchmarks, evaluated using the Fr\'{e}chet ChemNet Distance (FCD).

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated pronounced ideological leanings, yet the stability and depth of these positions remain poorly understood. Surface-level responses can often be manipulated through simple prompt engineering, calling into question whether they reflect a coherent underlying ideology. This paper investigates the concept of "ideological depth" in LLMs, defined as the robustness and complexity of their internal political representations. We employ a dual approach: first, we measure the "steerability" of two well-known open-source LLMs using instruction prompting and activation steering. We find that while some models can easily switch between liberal and conservative viewpoints, others exhibit resistance or an increased rate of refusal, suggesting a more entrenched ideological structure. Second, we probe the internal mechanisms of these models using Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs). Preliminary analysis reveals that models with lower steerability possess more distinct and abstract ideological features. Our evaluations reveal that one model can contain 7.3x more political features than another model of similar size. This allows targeted ablation of a core political feature in an ideologically "deep" model, leading to consistent, logical shifts in its reasoning across related topics, whereas the same intervention in a "shallow" model results in an increase in refusal outputs. Our findings suggest that ideological depth is a quantifiable property of LLMs and that steerability serves as a valuable window into their latent political architecture.

Inference-time steering methods offer a lightweight alternative to fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) by modifying internal activations at test time without updating model weights. However, most existing approaches rely on fixed, global intervention vectors, overlook the causal influence of individual input tokens, and fail to leverage informative gradients from the model's logits, particularly in multimodal settings where visual and textual inputs contribute unevenly. To address these limitations, we introduce GrAInS, an inference-time steering approach that operates across both language-only and vision-language models and tasks. GrAInS uses contrastive, gradient-based attribution via Integrated Gradients to identify the top-k most influential tokens, both positively and negatively attributed based on their contribution to preferred versus dispreferred outputs. These tokens are then used to construct directional steering vectors that capture semantic shifts from undesirable to desirable behavior. During inference, GrAInS adjusts hidden activations at transformer layers guided by token-level attribution signals, and normalizes activations to preserve representational scale. This enables fine-grained, interpretable, and modular control over model behavior, without retraining or auxiliary supervision. Empirically, GrAInS consistently outperforms both fine-tuning and existing steering baselines: it achieves a 13.22% accuracy gain on TruthfulQA using Llama-3.1-8B, reduces hallucination rates on MMHal-Bench from 0.624 to 0.514 with LLaVA-1.6-7B, and improves alignment win rates on SPA-VL by 8.11%, all while preserving the model's fluency and general capabilities.

Neural sequence models are widely used to model time-series data. Equally ubiquitous is the usage of beam search (BS) as an approximate inference algorithm to decode output sequences from these models. BS explores the search space in a greedy left-right fashion retaining only the top-B candidates - resulting in sequences that differ only slightly from each other. Producing lists of nearly identical sequences is not only computationally wasteful but also typically fails to capture the inherent ambiguity of complex AI tasks. To overcome this problem, we propose Diverse Beam Search (DBS), an alternative to BS that decodes a list of diverse outputs by optimizing for a diversity-augmented objective. We observe that our method finds better top-1 solutions by controlling for the exploration and exploitation of the search space - implying that DBS is a better search algorithm. Moreover, these gains are achieved with minimal computational or memory over- head as compared to beam search. To demonstrate the broad applicability of our method, we present results on image captioning, machine translation and visual question generation using both standard quantitative metrics and qualitative human studies. Further, we study the role of diversity for image-grounded language generation tasks as the complexity of the image changes. We observe that our method consistently outperforms BS and previously proposed techniques for diverse decoding from neural sequence models.

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we provide a positive answer to this question. Through a diverse set of language modeling tasks--including symbol manipulation, knowledge retrieval, and instruction following--we show that the most robust features for correctness prediction are those that play a distinctive causal role in the model's behavior. Specifically, we propose two methods that leverage causal mechanisms to predict the correctness of model outputs: counterfactual simulation (checking whether key causal variables are realized) and value probing (using the values of those variables to make predictions). Both achieve high AUC-ROC in distribution and outperform methods that rely on causal-agnostic features in out-of-distribution settings, where predicting model behaviors is more crucial. Our work thus highlights a novel and significant application for internal causal analysis of language models.

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a novel scaling effect: longer outputs significantly enhance model accuracy due to delayed chain-of-thought reasoning in our non-causal approach. YingLong is a non-causal, bidirectional attention encoder-only transformer trained through masked token recovery, aligning more effectively with language understanding tasks than with generation tasks. Additionally, we boost performance by tackling output variance with a multi-input ensemble. We release four foundation models ranging from 6M to 300M parameters, demonstrating superior results in zero-shot tasks on the ETT and Weather datasets. YingLong achieves more than 60% best performance. To ensure generalizability, we assessed the models using the GIFT-Eval benchmark, which comprises 23 time series datasets across 7 domains. Yinglong significantly outperformed the best time-series foundation models, end-to-end trained models by 14% and 44% in rank respectively.The pretrained 300M model is available at https://huggingface.co/qcw1314/YingLong_300m

Real-time 3D hand forecasting is a critical component for fluid human-computer interaction in applications like AR and assistive robotics. However, existing methods are ill-suited for these scenarios, as they typically require offline access to accumulated video sequences and cannot incorporate language guidance that conveys task intent. To overcome these limitations, we introduce SFHand, the first streaming framework for language-guided 3D hand forecasting. SFHand autoregressively predicts a comprehensive set of future 3D hand states, including hand type, 2D bounding box, 3D pose, and trajectory, from a continuous stream of video and language instructions. Our framework combines a streaming autoregressive architecture with an ROI-enhanced memory layer, capturing temporal context while focusing on salient hand-centric regions. To enable this research, we also introduce EgoHaFL, the first large-scale dataset featuring synchronized 3D hand poses and language instructions. We demonstrate that SFHand achieves new state-of-the-art results in 3D hand forecasting, outperforming prior work by a significant margin of up to 35.8%. Furthermore, we show the practical utility of our learned representations by transferring them to downstream embodied manipulation tasks, improving task success rates by up to 13.4% on multiple benchmarks. Dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ut-vision/EgoHaFL, project page: https://github.com/ut-vision/SFHand.

Harnessing visual texts represents a burgeoning frontier in the evolution of language modeling. In this paper, we introduce a novel pre-training framework for a suite of pixel-based autoregressive language models, pre-training on a corpus of over 400 million documents rendered as RGB images. Our approach is characterized by a dual-modality training regimen, engaging both visual data through next patch prediction with a regression head and textual data via next token prediction with a classification head. This study is particularly focused on investigating the synergistic interplay between visual and textual modalities of language. Our comprehensive evaluation across a diverse array of benchmarks reveals that the confluence of visual and textual data substantially augments the efficacy of pixel-based language models. Notably, our findings show that a unidirectional pixel-based model, devoid of textual data during training, can match the performance levels of advanced bidirectional pixel-based models on various language understanding benchmarks. This work highlights the considerable untapped potential of integrating visual and textual information for language modeling purposes. We will release our code, data, and checkpoints to inspire further research advancement.

Sentiment is a pervasive feature in natural language text, yet it is an open question how sentiment is represented within Large Language Models (LLMs). In this study, we reveal that across a range of models, sentiment is represented linearly: a single direction in activation space mostly captures the feature across a range of tasks with one extreme for positive and the other for negative. Through causal interventions, we isolate this direction and show it is causally relevant in both toy tasks and real world datasets such as Stanford Sentiment Treebank. Through this case study we model a thorough investigation of what a single direction means on a broad data distribution. We further uncover the mechanisms that involve this direction, highlighting the roles of a small subset of attention heads and neurons. Finally, we discover a phenomenon which we term the summarization motif: sentiment is not solely represented on emotionally charged words, but is additionally summarized at intermediate positions without inherent sentiment, such as punctuation and names. We show that in Stanford Sentiment Treebank zero-shot classification, 76% of above-chance classification accuracy is lost when ablating the sentiment direction, nearly half of which (36%) is due to ablating the summarized sentiment direction exclusively at comma positions.

The ability to describe images with natural language sentences is the hallmark for image and language understanding. Such a system has wide ranging applications such as annotating images and using natural sentences to search for images.In this project we focus on the task of bidirectional image retrieval: such asystem is capable of retrieving an image based on a sentence (image search) andretrieve sentence based on an image query (image annotation). We present asystem based on a global ranking objective function which uses a combinationof convolutional neural networks (CNN) and multi layer perceptrons (MLP).It takes a pair of image and sentence and processes them in different channels,finally embedding it into a common multimodal vector space. These embeddingsencode abstract semantic information about the two inputs and can be comparedusing traditional information retrieval approaches. For each such pair, the modelreturns a score which is interpretted as a similarity metric. If this score is high,the image and sentence are likely to convey similar meaning, and if the score is low then they are likely not to. The visual input is modeled via deep convolutional neural network. On theother hand we explore three models for the textual module. The first one isbag of words with an MLP. The second one uses n-grams (bigram, trigrams,and a combination of trigram & skip-grams) with an MLP. The third is morespecialized deep network specific for modeling variable length sequences (SSE).We report comparable performance to recent work in the field, even though ouroverall model is simpler. We also show that the training time choice of how wecan generate our negative samples has a significant impact on performance, and can be used to specialize the bi-directional system in one particular task.

While large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance across diverse tasks, recent studies showcase that causal LLMs suffer from the "reversal curse". It is a typical example that the model knows "A's father is B", but is unable to reason "B's child is A". This limitation poses a challenge to the advancement of artificial general intelligence (AGI), as it suggests a gap in the models' ability to comprehend and apply bidirectional reasoning. In this paper, we first conduct substantial evaluation and identify that the root cause of the reversal curse lies in the different word order between the training and inference stage, namely, the poor ability of causal language models to predict antecedent words within the training data. Accordingly, permutation on the training data is considered as a potential solution, since this can make the model predict antecedent words or tokens. However, previous permutation methods may disrupt complete phrases or entities, thereby posing challenges for the model to comprehend and learn from training data. To address this issue, we propose Semantic-aware Permutation Training (SPT), which addresses this issue by segmenting the training sentences into semantic units (i.e., entities or phrases) with an assistant language model and permuting these units before feeding into the model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SPT effectively mitigates the reversal curse since the performance on reversed questions approximates that on the forward ones, and significantly advances the performance of existing works.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Predicting the motion of multiple traffic participants has always been one of the most challenging tasks in autonomous driving. The recently proposed occupancy flow field prediction method has shown to be a more effective and scalable representation compared to general trajectory prediction methods. However, in complex multi-agent traffic scenarios, it remains difficult to model the interactions among various factors and the dependencies among prediction outputs at different time steps. In view of this, we propose a transformer-based hierarchical feature guided network (HGNET), which can efficiently extract features of agents and map information from visual and vectorized inputs, modeling multimodal interaction relationships. Second, we design the Feature-Guided Attention (FGAT) module to leverage the potential guiding effects between different prediction targets, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, to enhance the temporal consistency and causal relationships of the predictions, we propose a Time Series Memory framework to learn the conditional distribution models of the prediction outputs at future time steps from multivariate time series. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits competitive performance, which ranks 3rd in the 2024 Waymo Occupancy and Flow Prediction Challenge.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Visual search is a ubiquitous and often challenging daily task, exemplified by looking for the car keys at home or a friend in a crowd. An intriguing property of some classical search tasks is an asymmetry such that finding a target A among distractors B can be easier than finding B among A. To elucidate the mechanisms responsible for asymmetry in visual search, we propose a computational model that takes a target and a search image as inputs and produces a sequence of eye movements until the target is found. The model integrates eccentricity-dependent visual recognition with target-dependent top-down cues. We compared the model against human behavior in six paradigmatic search tasks that show asymmetry in humans. Without prior exposure to the stimuli or task-specific training, the model provides a plausible mechanism for search asymmetry. We hypothesized that the polarity of search asymmetry arises from experience with the natural environment. We tested this hypothesis by training the model on augmented versions of ImageNet where the biases of natural images were either removed or reversed. The polarity of search asymmetry disappeared or was altered depending on the training protocol. This study highlights how classical perceptual properties can emerge in neural network models, without the need for task-specific training, but rather as a consequence of the statistical properties of the developmental diet fed to the model. All source code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/kreimanlab/VisualSearchAsymmetry.

Current Vision-Language Models (VLMs) struggle with fine-grained spatial reasoning, particularly when multi-step logic and precise spatial alignment are required. In this work, we introduce SpatialReasoner-R1, a vision-language reasoning model designed to address these limitations. To construct high-quality supervision for spatial reasoning, we design a Multi-Model Monte Carlo Tree Search (M3CTS) method that generates diverse, logically consistent Long Chain-of-Thought (LongCoT) reasoning trajectories. In addition, we propose fine-grained Direct Preference Optimization (fDPO), which introduces segment-specific preference granularity for descriptive grounding and logical reasoning, guided by a spatial reward mechanism that evaluates candidate responses based on visual consistency, spatial grounding, and logical coherence. Experimental results demonstrate that fDPO achieves an average improvement of 4.1% over standard DPO across spatial quality tasks, and a 9.0% gain in spatial quantity tasks. SpatialReasoner-R1, trained with fDPO, sets a new SoTA on SPATIALRGPT-Bench, outperforming the strongest baseline by 9.8% in average accuracy, while maintaining competitive performance on general vision-language tasks.

Recent advances in multimodal pre-trained models have significantly improved information extraction from visually-rich documents (VrDs), in which named entity recognition (NER) is treated as a sequence-labeling task of predicting the BIO entity tags for tokens, following the typical setting of NLP. However, BIO-tagging scheme relies on the correct order of model inputs, which is not guaranteed in real-world NER on scanned VrDs where text are recognized and arranged by OCR systems. Such reading order issue hinders the accurate marking of entities by BIO-tagging scheme, making it impossible for sequence-labeling methods to predict correct named entities. To address the reading order issue, we introduce Token Path Prediction (TPP), a simple prediction head to predict entity mentions as token sequences within documents. Alternative to token classification, TPP models the document layout as a complete directed graph of tokens, and predicts token paths within the graph as entities. For better evaluation of VrD-NER systems, we also propose two revised benchmark datasets of NER on scanned documents which can reflect real-world scenarios. Experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, and suggest its potential to be a universal solution to various information extraction tasks on documents.

Human-Object Interaction detection is a holistic visual recognition task that entails object detection as well as interaction classification. Previous works of HOI detection has been addressed by the various compositions of subset predictions, e.g., Image -> HO -> I, Image -> HI -> O. Recently, transformer based architecture for HOI has emerged, which directly predicts the HOI triplets in an end-to-end fashion (Image -> HOI). Motivated by various inference paths for HOI detection, we propose cross-path consistency learning (CPC), which is a novel end-to-end learning strategy to improve HOI detection for transformers by leveraging augmented decoding paths. CPC learning enforces all the possible predictions from permuted inference sequences to be consistent. This simple scheme makes the model learn consistent representations, thereby improving generalization without increasing model capacity. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, and we achieved significant improvement on V-COCO and HICO-DET compared to the baseline models. Our code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/CPChoi.

This paper introduces a novel method for self-supervised video representation learning via feature prediction. In contrast to the previous methods that focus on future feature prediction, we argue that a supervisory signal arising from unobserved past frames is complementary to one that originates from the future frames. The rationale behind our method is to encourage the network to explore the temporal structure of videos by distinguishing between future and past given present observations. We train our model in a contrastive learning framework, where joint encoding of future and past provides us with a comprehensive set of temporal hard negatives via swapping. We empirically show that utilizing both signals enriches the learned representations for the downstream task of action recognition. It outperforms independent prediction of future and past.

The prevailing Next-Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm has driven the success of large language models through discrete autoregressive modeling. However, contemporary multimodal systems remain language-centric, often treating non-linguistic modalities as external attachments, leading to fragmented architectures and suboptimal integration. To transcend this limitation, we introduce Discrete Native Autoregressive (DiNA), a unified framework that represents multimodal information within a shared discrete space, enabling a consistent and principled autoregressive modeling across modalities. A key innovation is the Discrete Native Any-resolution Visual Transformer (dNaViT), which performs tokenization and de-tokenization at arbitrary resolutions, transforming continuous visual signals into hierarchical discrete tokens. Building on this foundation, we develop LongCat-Next, a native multimodal model that processes text, vision, and audio under a single autoregressive objective with minimal modality-specific design. As an industrial-strength foundation model, it excels at seeing, painting, and talking within a single framework, achieving strong performance across a wide range of multimodal benchmarks. In particular, LongCat-Next addresses the long-standing performance ceiling of discrete vision modeling on understanding tasks and provides a unified approach to effectively reconcile the conflict between understanding and generation. As an attempt toward native multimodality, we open-source the LongCat-Next and its tokenizers, hoping to foster further research and development in the community. GitHub: https://github.com/meituan-longcat/LongCat-Next

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

Hand trajectory forecasting from egocentric views is crucial for enabling a prompt understanding of human intentions when interacting with AR/VR systems. However, existing methods handle this problem in a 2D image space which is inadequate for 3D real-world applications. In this paper, we set up an egocentric 3D hand trajectory forecasting task that aims to predict hand trajectories in a 3D space from early observed RGB videos in a first-person view. To fulfill this goal, we propose an uncertainty-aware state space Transformer (USST) that takes the merits of the attention mechanism and aleatoric uncertainty within the framework of the classical state-space model. The model can be further enhanced by the velocity constraint and visual prompt tuning (VPT) on large vision transformers. Moreover, we develop an annotation workflow to collect 3D hand trajectories with high quality. Experimental results on H2O and EgoPAT3D datasets demonstrate the superiority of USST for both 2D and 3D trajectory forecasting. The code and datasets are publicly released: https://actionlab-cv.github.io/EgoHandTrajPred.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have advanced across multimodal benchmarks but still show clear gaps in ordinal number understanding, i.e., the ability to track relative positions and generalize to large indices. We present OrdinalBench, a diagnostic benchmark that standardizes ordinal number understanding as an evaluation task for VLMs. The core task is N-th object identification, defined by a starting reference and traversal rule. Task difficulty is controlled along three axes: (i) ordinal magnitude, from small numbers to extreme cases up to 300; (ii) arrangement complexity, from single loops to maze-like paths; and (iii) object count. The benchmark provides 39,000 question-answer pairs, each annotated with a ground-truth reasoning trajectory and balanced across difficulty levels for controlled large-scale testing. Beyond answer-only evaluation, our framework requires models to generate structured stepwise traces of the counting process and provides an open evaluation toolkit that measures both final accuracy and step-level path consistency. Zero-shot evaluations of GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite, Qwen2.5-VL, InternVL3.5, and Molmo reveal sharp degradation under large-ordinal and complex-path conditions, highlighting weak generalization despite strong scores on standard multimodal tasks. By framing ordinal number understanding as a core target, OrdinalBench provides a reproducible benchmark and diagnostic framework for developing VLMs with stronger sequential reasoning. All data and code are available at https://ordinalbench.github.io/

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Time series forecasting is a long-standing and highly challenging research topic. Recently, driven by the rise of large language models (LLMs), research has increasingly shifted from purely time series methods toward harnessing textual modalities to enhance forecasting performance. However, the vast discrepancy between text and temporal data often leads current multimodal architectures to over-emphasise one modality while neglecting the other, resulting in information loss that harms forecasting performance. To address this modality imbalance, we introduce BALM-TSF (Balanced Multimodal Alignment for LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting), a lightweight time series forecasting framework that maintains balance between the two modalities. Specifically, raw time series are processed by the time series encoder, while descriptive statistics of raw time series are fed to an LLM with learnable prompt, producing compact textual embeddings. To ensure balanced cross-modal context alignment of time series and textual embeddings, a simple yet effective scaling strategy combined with a contrastive objective then maps these textual embeddings into the latent space of the time series embeddings. Finally, the aligned textual semantic embeddings and time series embeddings are together integrated for forecasting. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks show that, with minimal trainable parameters, BALM-TSF achieves state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and few-shot forecasting, confirming its ability to harness complementary information from text and time series. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/BALM-TSF.

In this paper, we present a novel Left-Prompt-Guided (LPG) paradigm to address a diverse range of reference-based vision tasks. Inspired by the human creative process, we reformulate these tasks using a left-right stitching formulation to construct contextual input. Building upon this foundation, we propose AnyRefill, an extension of LeftRefill, that effectively adapts Text-to-Image (T2I) models to various vision tasks. AnyRefill leverages the inpainting priors of advanced T2I model based on the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) architecture, and incorporates flexible components to enhance its capabilities. By combining task-specific LoRAs with the stitching input, AnyRefill unlocks its potential across diverse tasks, including conditional generation, visual perception, and image editing, without requiring additional visual encoders. Meanwhile, AnyRefill exhibits remarkable data efficiency, requiring minimal task-specific fine-tuning while maintaining high generative performance. Through extensive ablation studies, we demonstrate that AnyRefill outperforms other image condition injection methods and achieves competitive results compared to state-of-the-art open-source methods. Notably, AnyRefill delivers results comparable to advanced commercial tools, such as IC-Light and SeedEdit, even in challenging scenarios. Comprehensive experiments and ablation studies across versatile tasks validate the strong generation of the proposed simple yet effective LPG formulation, establishing AnyRefill as a unified, highly data-efficient solution for reference-based vision tasks.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

We address the problem of Embodied Reference Understanding, which involves predicting the object that a person in the scene is referring to through both pointing gesture and language. Accurately identifying the referent requires multimodal understanding: integrating textual instructions, visual pointing, and scene context. However, existing methods often struggle to effectively leverage visual clues for disambiguation. We also observe that, while the referent is often aligned with the head-to-fingertip line, it occasionally aligns more closely with the wrist-to-fingertip line. Therefore, relying on a single line assumption can be overly simplistic and may lead to suboptimal performance. To address this, we propose a dual-model framework, where one model learns from the head-to-fingertip direction and the other from the wrist-to-fingertip direction. We further introduce a Gaussian ray heatmap representation of these lines and use them as input to provide a strong supervisory signal that encourages the model to better attend to pointing cues. To combine the strengths of both models, we present the CLIP-Aware Pointing Ensemble module, which performs a hybrid ensemble based on CLIP features. Additionally, we propose an object center prediction head as an auxiliary task to further enhance referent localization. We validate our approach through extensive experiments and analysis on the benchmark YouRefIt dataset, achieving an improvement of approximately 4 mAP at the 0.25 IoU threshold.

The representation degeneration problem is a phenomenon that is widely observed among self-supervised learning methods based on Transformers. In NLP, it takes the form of anisotropy, a singular property of hidden representations which makes them unexpectedly close to each other in terms of angular distance (cosine-similarity). Some recent works tend to show that anisotropy is a consequence of optimizing the cross-entropy loss on long-tailed distributions of tokens. We show in this paper that anisotropy can also be observed empirically in language models with specific objectives that should not suffer directly from the same consequences. We also show that the anisotropy problem extends to Transformers trained on other modalities. Our observations suggest that anisotropy is actually inherent to Transformers-based models.

Embodied navigation for long-horizon tasks, guided by complex natural language instructions, remains a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Existing agents often struggle with robust long-term planning about unseen environments, leading to high failure rates. To address these limitations, we introduce NavForesee, a novel Vision-Language Model (VLM) that unifies high-level language planning and predictive world model imagination within a single, unified framework. Our approach empowers a single VLM to concurrently perform planning and predictive foresight. Conditioned on the full instruction and historical observations, the model is trained to understand the navigation instructions by decomposing the task, tracking its progress, and formulating the subsequent sub-goal. Simultaneously, it functions as a generative world model, providing crucial foresight by predicting short-term environmental dynamics and long-term navigation milestones. The VLM's structured plan guides its targeted prediction, while the imagined future provides rich context to inform the navigation actions, creating a powerful internal feedback loop of perception-planning/prediction-action. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmark that NavForesee achieves highly competitive performance in complex scenarios. Our work highlights the immense potential of fusing explicit language planning with implicit spatiotemporal prediction, paving the way for more intelligent and capable embodied agents.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM (S^2IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, S^2IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed S^2IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly shape political discourse, yet exhibit inconsistent responses when challenged. While prior research categorizes LLMs as left- or right-leaning based on single-prompt responses, a critical question remains: Do these classifications reflect stable ideologies or superficial mimicry? Existing methods cannot distinguish between genuine ideological alignment and performative text generation. To address this, we propose a framework for evaluating ideological depth through (1) argumentative consistency and (2) uncertainty quantification. Testing 12 LLMs on 19 economic policies from the Political Compass Test, we classify responses as stable or performative ideological positioning. Results show 95% of left-leaning models and 89% of right-leaning models demonstrate behavior consistent with our classifications across different experimental conditions. Furthermore, semantic entropy strongly validates our classifications (AUROC=0.78), revealing uncertainty's relationship to ideological consistency. Our findings demonstrate that ideological stability is topic-dependent and challenge the notion of monolithic LLM ideologies, and offer a robust way to distinguish genuine alignment from performative behavior.

While large language models have rapidly evolved towards general artificial intelligence, their versatility in analyzing time series data remains limited. To address this limitation, we propose a novel normalization technique that considers the inherent nature of tokenization. The proposed Tokenization-Optimized Normalization (TOKON) simplifies time series data by representing each element with a single token, effectively reducing the number of tokens by 2 to 3 times. Additionally, we introduce a novel prompt for time series forecasting, termed Time Series Forecasting with Care (TFSC), to further enhance forecasting performance. Experimental results demonstrate that TOKON improves root mean square error (RMSE) for multi-step forecasting by approximately 7% to 18%, depending on the dataset and prompting method. Furthermore, TFSC, when used in conjunction with TOKON, shows additional improvements in forecasting accuracy for certain datasets

The visual world offers a critical axis for advancing foundation models beyond language. Despite growing interest in this direction, the design space for native multimodal models remains opaque. We provide empirical clarity through controlled, from-scratch pretraining experiments, isolating the factors that govern multimodal pretraining without interference from language pretraining. We adopt the Transfusion framework, using next-token prediction for language and diffusion for vision, to train on diverse data including text, video, image-text pairs, and even action-conditioned video. Our experiments yield four key insights: (i) Representation Autoencoder (RAE) provides an optimal unified visual representation by excelling at both visual understanding and generation; (ii) visual and language data are complementary and yield synergy for downstream capabilities; (iii) unified multimodal pretraining leads naturally to world modeling, with capabilities emerging from general training; and (iv) Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) enables efficient and effective multimodal scaling while naturally inducing modality specialization. Through IsoFLOP analysis, we compute scaling laws for both modalities and uncover a scaling asymmetry: vision is significantly more data-hungry than language. We demonstrate that the MoE architecture harmonizes this scaling asymmetry by providing the high model capacity required by language while accommodating the data-intensive nature of vision, paving the way for truly unified multimodal models.