Daily Papers

A key advance in learning generative models is the use of amortized inference distributions that are jointly trained with the models. We find that existing training objectives for variational autoencoders can lead to inaccurate amortized inference distributions and, in some cases, improving the objective provably degrades the inference quality. In addition, it has been observed that variational autoencoders tend to ignore the latent variables when combined with a decoding distribution that is too flexible. We again identify the cause in existing training criteria and propose a new class of objectives (InfoVAE) that mitigate these problems. We show that our model can significantly improve the quality of the variational posterior and can make effective use of the latent features regardless of the flexibility of the decoding distribution. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses, we demonstrate that our models outperform competing approaches on multiple performance metrics.

We introduce a principled probabilistic framework for reward-guided decoding in large language models, addressing the limitations of standard decoding methods that optimize token-level likelihood rather than sequence-level quality. Our method defines a reward-augmented target distribution over complete sequences by combining model transition probabilities with prefix-dependent reward potentials. Importantly, the approach is training-free: it leaves model weights unchanged and instead modifies the inference distribution via reward potentials, with all gains arising purely from inference-time sampling. To sample from this distribution, we develop Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, including a computationally efficient prefix-only variant and a lookahead variant whose intermediate targets match the exact marginals of the full sequence distribution. The framework also integrates resample-move updates with Metropolis-Hastings rejuvenation and supports block-wise generation, subsuming common decoding strategies such as temperature sampling and power-tempered objectives. Empirical results across three 7B models show significant gains. On code generation (HumanEval), our method improves base performance by up to 54.9% and surpasses the strongest sampling baselines by 9.1%-15.3%. On mathematical reasoning (MATH500), it achieves gains of up to 8.8%. Notably, it reaches 87.8% on HumanEval and 78.4% on MATH500 with Qwen2.5-7B, consistently outperforming the reinforcement learning method GRPO.

We propose X-WAM, a Unified 4D World Model that unifies real-time robotic action execution and high-fidelity 4D world synthesis (video + 3D reconstruction) in a single framework, addressing the critical limitations of prior unified world models (e.g., UWM) that only model 2D pixel-space and fail to balance action efficiency and world modeling quality. To leverage the strong visual priors of pretrained video diffusion models, X-WAM imagines the future world by predicting multi-view RGB-D videos, and obtains spatial information efficiently through a lightweight structural adaptation: replicating the final few blocks of the pretrained Diffusion Transformer into a dedicated depth prediction branch for the reconstruction of future spatial information. Moreover, we propose Asynchronous Noise Sampling (ANS) to jointly optimize generation quality and action decoding efficiency. ANS applies a specialized asynchronous denoising schedule during inference, which rapidly decodes actions with fewer steps to enable efficient real-time execution, while dedicating the full sequence of steps to generate high-fidelity video. Rather than entirely decoupling the timesteps during training, ANS samples from their joint distribution to align with the inference distribution. Pretrained on over 5,800 hours of robotic data, X-WAM achieves 79.2% and 90.7% average success rate on RoboCasa and RoboTwin 2.0 benchmarks, while producing high-fidelity 4D reconstruction and generation surpassing existing methods in both visual and geometric metrics.

A distribution inference attack aims to infer statistical properties of data used to train machine learning models. These attacks are sometimes surprisingly potent, but the factors that impact distribution inference risk are not well understood and demonstrated attacks often rely on strong and unrealistic assumptions such as full knowledge of training environments even in supposedly black-box threat scenarios. To improve understanding of distribution inference risks, we develop a new black-box attack that even outperforms the best known white-box attack in most settings. Using this new attack, we evaluate distribution inference risk while relaxing a variety of assumptions about the adversary's knowledge under black-box access, like known model architectures and label-only access. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of previously proposed defenses and introduce new defenses. We find that although noise-based defenses appear to be ineffective, a simple re-sampling defense can be highly effective. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/dissecting_distribution_inference

Distribution inference, sometimes called property inference, infers statistical properties about a training set from access to a model trained on that data. Distribution inference attacks can pose serious risks when models are trained on private data, but are difficult to distinguish from the intrinsic purpose of statistical machine learning -- namely, to produce models that capture statistical properties about a distribution. Motivated by Yeom et al.'s membership inference framework, we propose a formal definition of distribution inference attacks that is general enough to describe a broad class of attacks distinguishing between possible training distributions. We show how our definition captures previous ratio-based property inference attacks as well as new kinds of attack including revealing the average node degree or clustering coefficient of a training graph. To understand distribution inference risks, we introduce a metric that quantifies observed leakage by relating it to the leakage that would occur if samples from the training distribution were provided directly to the adversary. We report on a series of experiments across a range of different distributions using both novel black-box attacks and improved versions of the state-of-the-art white-box attacks. Our results show that inexpensive attacks are often as effective as expensive meta-classifier attacks, and that there are surprising asymmetries in the effectiveness of attacks. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/FormEstDistRisks

We present MidasTouch, a tactile perception system for online global localization of a vision-based touch sensor sliding on an object surface. This framework takes in posed tactile images over time, and outputs an evolving distribution of sensor pose on the object's surface, without the need for visual priors. Our key insight is to estimate local surface geometry with tactile sensing, learn a compact representation for it, and disambiguate these signals over a long time horizon. The backbone of MidasTouch is a Monte-Carlo particle filter, with a measurement model based on a tactile code network learned from tactile simulation. This network, inspired by LIDAR place recognition, compactly summarizes local surface geometries. These generated codes are efficiently compared against a precomputed tactile codebook per-object, to update the pose distribution. We further release the YCB-Slide dataset of real-world and simulated forceful sliding interactions between a vision-based tactile sensor and standard YCB objects. While single-touch localization can be inherently ambiguous, we can quickly localize our sensor by traversing salient surface geometries. Project page: https://suddhu.github.io/midastouch-tactile/

We propose (G)I-DLE, a new approach to constrained decoding that leverages KL divergence minimization to preserve the intrinsic conditional probability distribution of autoregressive language models while excluding undesirable tokens. Unlike conventional methods that naively set banned tokens' logits to -infty, which can distort the conversion from raw logits to posterior probabilities and increase output variance, (G)I-DLE re-normalizes the allowed token probabilities to minimize such distortion. We validate our method on the K2-Eval dataset, specifically designed to assess Korean language fluency, logical reasoning, and cultural appropriateness. Experimental results on Qwen2.5 models (ranging from 1.5B to 14B) demonstrate that G-IDLE not only boosts mean evaluation scores but also substantially reduces the variance of output quality.

Diffusion Policy (DP) has attracted significant attention as an effective method for policy representation due to its capacity to model multi-distribution dynamics. However, current DPs are often based on a single visual modality (e.g., RGB or point cloud), limiting their accuracy and generalization potential. Although training a generalized DP capable of handling heterogeneous multimodal data would enhance performance, it entails substantial computational and data-related costs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel policy composition method: by leveraging multiple pre-trained DPs based on individual visual modalities, we can combine their distributional scores to form a more expressive Modality-Composable Diffusion Policy (MCDP), without the need for additional training. Through extensive empirical experiments on the RoboTwin dataset, we demonstrate the potential of MCDP to improve both adaptability and performance. This exploration aims to provide valuable insights into the flexible composition of existing DPs, facilitating the development of generalizable cross-modality, cross-domain, and even cross-embodiment policies. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/AndyCao1125/MCDP.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

Language models (LMs) have already demonstrated remarkable abilities in understanding and generating both natural and formal language. Despite these advances, their integration with real-world environments such as large-scale knowledge bases (KBs) remains an underdeveloped area, affecting applications such as semantic parsing and indulging in "hallucinated" information. This paper is an experimental investigation aimed at uncovering the robustness challenges that LMs encounter when tasked with knowledge base question answering (KBQA). The investigation covers scenarios with inconsistent data distribution between training and inference, such as generalization to unseen domains, adaptation to various language variations, and transferability across different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments reveal that even when employed with our proposed data augmentation techniques, advanced small and large language models exhibit poor performance in various dimensions. While the LM is a promising technology, the robustness of the current form in dealing with complex environments is fragile and of limited practicality because of the data distribution issue. This calls for future research on data collection and LM learning paradims.

This work aims to develop a method based on a structurally reliable ice model and a statistically and physico-chemically robust approach for BE distribution inference, with the aim to be applicable to various relevant interstellar species. A multiscale computational approach is presented, with a Molecular Dynamics (MD) Heat & Quench protocol for the amorphous water ice model, and an ONIOM(B3LYP-D3(BJ)/6-311+G**:GFN2-xtb) scheme for the BE inference, with a prime emphasis onto the BE/real system size convergence. The sampling of the binding configurations is twofold, exploring both regularly spaced binding sites, as well as various adsorbate-to-substrate orientations on each locally distinct site. This second source of BE diversity accounts for the local roughness of the potential energy landscape of the substrate. Three different adsorbate test cases are considered, i.e. NH3, CO and CH4, owing to their significance in dust icy mantles, and their distinct binding behavior with water ices. The BE distributions for NH3, CO and CH4 have been inferred, with converged statistics. The distribution for NH3 is better represented by a double Gaussian component profile. Three starting adsorbate orientations per site are required to reach convergence for both Gaussian components of NH3, while 2 orientations are sufficient for CO, and one unique for CH4 (symmetric). Further geometrical and molecular surrounding insights have been provided. These results encompass previously reported results.

This paper introduces misinfo-general, a benchmark dataset for evaluating misinformation models' ability to perform out-of-distribution generalisation. Misinformation changes rapidly, much quicker than moderators can annotate at scale, resulting in a shift between the training and inference data distributions. As a result, misinformation models need to be able to perform out-of-distribution generalisation, an understudied problem in existing datasets. We identify 6 axes of generalisation-time, event, topic, publisher, political bias, misinformation type-and design evaluation procedures for each. We also analyse some baseline models, highlighting how these fail important desiderata.

The popularity of transformer-based text embeddings calls for better statistical tools for measuring distributions of such embeddings. One such tool would be a method for ranking texts within a corpus by centrality, i.e. assigning each text a number signifying how representative that text is of the corpus as a whole. However, an intrinsic center-outward ordering of high-dimensional text representations is not trivial. A statistical depth is a function for ranking k-dimensional objects by measuring centrality with respect to some observed k-dimensional distribution. We adopt a statistical depth to measure distributions of transformer-based text embeddings, transformer-based text embedding (TTE) depth, and introduce the practical use of this depth for both modeling and distributional inference in NLP pipelines. We first define TTE depth and an associated rank sum test for determining whether two corpora differ significantly in embedding space. We then use TTE depth for the task of in-context learning prompt selection, showing that this approach reliably improves performance over statistical baseline approaches across six text classification tasks. Finally, we use TTE depth and the associated rank sum test to characterize the distributions of synthesized and human-generated corpora, showing that five recent synthetic data augmentation processes cause a measurable distributional shift away from associated human-generated text.

Recent advances in knowledge distillation (KD) have enabled smaller student models to approach the performance of larger teacher models. However, popular methods such as supervised KD and on-policy KD, are adversely impacted by the knowledge gaps between teacher-student in practical scenarios. Supervised KD suffers from a distribution mismatch between training with a static dataset and inference over final student-generated outputs. Conversely, on-policy KD, which uses student-generated samples for training, can suffer from low-quality training examples with which teacher models are not familiar, resulting in inaccurate teacher feedback. To address these limitations, we introduce Speculative Knowledge Distillation (SKD), a novel approach that leverages cooperation between student and teacher models to generate high-quality training data on-the-fly while aligning with the student's inference-time distribution. In SKD, the student proposes tokens, and the teacher replaces poorly ranked ones based on its own distribution, transferring high-quality knowledge adaptively. We evaluate SKD on various text generation tasks, including translation, summarization, math, and instruction following, and show that SKD consistently outperforms existing KD methods across different domains, data sizes, and model initialization strategies.

The development of deep learning software libraries enabled significant progress in the field by allowing users to focus on modeling, while letting the library to take care of the tedious and time-consuming task of optimizing execution for modern hardware accelerators. However, this has benefited only particular types of deep learning models, such as Transformers, whose primitives map easily to the vectorized computation. The models that explicitly account for structured objects, such as trees and segmentations, did not benefit equally because they require custom algorithms that are difficult to implement in a vectorized form. SynJax directly addresses this problem by providing an efficient vectorized implementation of inference algorithms for structured distributions covering alignment, tagging, segmentation, constituency trees and spanning trees. With SynJax we can build large-scale differentiable models that explicitly model structure in the data. The code is available at https://github.com/deepmind/synjax.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Numerous capability and safety techniques of Large Language Models (LLMs), including RLHF, automated red-teaming, prompt engineering, and infilling, can be cast as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution defined by a given reward or potential function over the full sequence. In this work, we leverage the rich toolkit of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for these probabilistic inference problems. In particular, we use learned twist functions to estimate the expected future value of the potential at each timestep, which enables us to focus inference-time computation on promising partial sequences. We propose a novel contrastive method for learning the twist functions, and establish connections with the rich literature of soft reinforcement learning. As a complementary application of our twisted SMC framework, we present methods for evaluating the accuracy of language model inference techniques using novel bidirectional SMC bounds on the log partition function. These bounds can be used to estimate the KL divergence between the inference and target distributions in both directions. We apply our inference evaluation techniques to show that twisted SMC is effective for sampling undesirable outputs from a pretrained model (a useful component of harmlessness training and automated red-teaming), generating reviews with varied sentiment, and performing infilling tasks.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

Natural Language Inference (NLI) tasks involving temporal inference remain challenging for pre-trained language models (LMs). Although various datasets have been created for this task, they primarily focus on English and do not address the need for resources in other languages. It is unclear whether current LMs realize the generalization capacity for temporal inference across languages. In this paper, we present Jamp, a Japanese NLI benchmark focused on temporal inference. Our dataset includes a range of temporal inference patterns, which enables us to conduct fine-grained analysis. To begin the data annotation process, we create diverse inference templates based on the formal semantics test suites. We then automatically generate diverse NLI examples by using the Japanese case frame dictionary and well-designed templates while controlling the distribution of inference patterns and gold labels. We evaluate the generalization capacities of monolingual/multilingual LMs by splitting our dataset based on tense fragments (i.e., temporal inference patterns). Our findings demonstrate that LMs struggle with specific linguistic phenomena, such as habituality, indicating that there is potential for the development of more effective NLI models across languages.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

Recently, test-time adaptation (TTA) has been proposed as a promising solution for addressing distribution shifts. It allows a base model to adapt to an unforeseen distribution during inference by leveraging the information from the batch of (unlabeled) test data. However, we uncover a novel security vulnerability of TTA based on the insight that predictions on benign samples can be impacted by malicious samples in the same batch. To exploit this vulnerability, we propose Distribution Invading Attack (DIA), which injects a small fraction of malicious data into the test batch. DIA causes models using TTA to misclassify benign and unperturbed test data, providing an entirely new capability for adversaries that is infeasible in canonical machine learning pipelines. Through comprehensive evaluations, we demonstrate the high effectiveness of our attack on multiple benchmarks across six TTA methods. In response, we investigate two countermeasures to robustify the existing insecure TTA implementations, following the principle of "security by design". Together, we hope our findings can make the community aware of the utility-security tradeoffs in deploying TTA and provide valuable insights for developing robust TTA approaches.

Attention is a fundamental component behind the remarkable achievements of large language models (LLMs). However, our current understanding of the attention mechanism, especially regarding how attention distributions are established, remains limited. Inspired by recent studies that explore the presence of attention sink in the initial token, which receives disproportionately large attention scores despite their lack of semantic importance, this work delves deeper into this phenomenon. We aim to provide a more profound understanding of the existence of attention sinks within LLMs and to uncover ways to enhance the achievable accuracy of LLMs by directly optimizing the attention distributions, without the need for weight finetuning. Specifically, this work begins with comprehensive visualizations of the attention distributions in LLMs during inference across various inputs and tasks. Based on these visualizations, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to discover that (1) attention sinks occur not only at the start of sequences but also within later tokens of the input, and (2) not all attention sinks have a positive impact on the achievable accuracy of LLMs. Building upon our findings, we propose a training-free Attention Calibration Technique (ACT) that automatically optimizes the attention distributions on the fly during inference in an input-adaptive manner. Extensive experiments validate that ACT consistently enhances the accuracy of various LLMs across different applications. Specifically, ACT achieves an average improvement of up to 7.30% in accuracy across different datasets when applied to Llama-30B. Our code is available at https://github.com/GATECH-EIC/ACT.

Generative models, widely utilized in various applications, can often struggle with prompts corresponding to partial tokens. This struggle stems from tokenization, where partial tokens fall out of distribution during inference, leading to incorrect or nonsensical outputs. This paper examines a technique to alleviate the tokenization artifact on text completion in generative models, maintaining performance even in regular non-subword cases. The method, termed token alignment, involves backtracking to the last complete tokens and ensuring the model's generation aligns with the prompt. This approach showcases marked improvement across many partial token scenarios, including nuanced cases like space-prefix and partial indentation, with only a minor time increase. The technique and analysis detailed in this paper contribute to the continuous advancement of generative models in handling partial inputs, bearing relevance for applications like code completion and text autocompletion.

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 400K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used across various applications, there is a growing need to control text generation to satisfy specific constraints or requirements. This raises a crucial question: Is it possible to guarantee strict constraint satisfaction in generated outputs while preserving the distribution of the original model as much as possible? We first define the ideal distribution - the one closest to the original model, which also always satisfies the expressed constraint - as the ultimate goal of guaranteed generation. We then state a fundamental limitation, namely that it is impossible to reach that goal through autoregressive training alone. This motivates the necessity of combining training-time and inference-time methods to enforce such guarantees. Based on this insight, we propose GUARD, a simple yet effective approach that combines an autoregressive proposal distribution with rejection sampling. Through GUARD's theoretical properties, we show how controlling the KL divergence between a specific proposal and the target ideal distribution simultaneously optimizes inference speed and distributional closeness. To validate these theoretical concepts, we conduct extensive experiments on two text generation settings with hard-to-satisfy constraints: a lexical constraint scenario and a sentiment reversal scenario. These experiments show that GUARD achieves perfect constraint satisfaction while almost preserving the ideal distribution with highly improved inference efficiency. GUARD provides a principled approach to enforcing strict guarantees for LLMs without compromising their generative capabilities.

Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

Using language models to scalably approximate human preferences on text quality (LLM-as-a-judge) has become a standard practice applicable to many tasks. A judgment is often extracted from the judge's textual output alone, typically with greedy decoding. However, LLM judges naturally provide distributions over judgment tokens, inviting a breadth of inference methods for extracting fine-grained preferences. We find that taking the mean of the judgment distribution consistently outperforms taking the mode (i.e. greedy decoding) in all evaluation settings (i.e. pointwise, pairwise, and listwise). We further explore novel methods of deriving preferences from judgment distributions, and find that methods incorporating risk aversion often improve performance. Lastly, we analyze LLM-as-a-judge paired with chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting, showing that CoT can collapse the spread of the judgment distribution, often harming performance. Our findings show that leveraging distributional output improves LLM-as-a-judge, as opposed to using the text interface alone.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

The proliferation of large language models (LLMs) in the real world has come with a rise in copyright cases against companies for training their models on unlicensed data from the internet. Recent works have presented methods to identify if individual text sequences were members of the model's training data, known as membership inference attacks (MIAs). We demonstrate that the apparent success of these MIAs is confounded by selecting non-members (text sequences not used for training) belonging to a different distribution from the members (e.g., temporally shifted recent Wikipedia articles compared with ones used to train the model). This distribution shift makes membership inference appear successful. However, most MIA methods perform no better than random guessing when discriminating between members and non-members from the same distribution (e.g., in this case, the same period of time). Even when MIAs work, we find that different MIAs succeed at inferring membership of samples from different distributions. Instead, we propose a new dataset inference method to accurately identify the datasets used to train large language models. This paradigm sits realistically in the modern-day copyright landscape, where authors claim that an LLM is trained over multiple documents (such as a book) written by them, rather than one particular paragraph. While dataset inference shares many of the challenges of membership inference, we solve it by selectively combining the MIAs that provide positive signal for a given distribution, and aggregating them to perform a statistical test on a given dataset. Our approach successfully distinguishes the train and test sets of different subsets of the Pile with statistically significant p-values < 0.1, without any false positives.

Recent approaches have shown promises distilling diffusion models into efficient one-step generators. Among them, Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) produces one-step generators that match their teacher in distribution, without enforcing a one-to-one correspondence with the sampling trajectories of their teachers. However, to ensure stable training, DMD requires an additional regression loss computed using a large set of noise-image pairs generated by the teacher with many steps of a deterministic sampler. This is costly for large-scale text-to-image synthesis and limits the student's quality, tying it too closely to the teacher's original sampling paths. We introduce DMD2, a set of techniques that lift this limitation and improve DMD training. First, we eliminate the regression loss and the need for expensive dataset construction. We show that the resulting instability is due to the fake critic not estimating the distribution of generated samples accurately and propose a two time-scale update rule as a remedy. Second, we integrate a GAN loss into the distillation procedure, discriminating between generated samples and real images. This lets us train the student model on real data, mitigating the imperfect real score estimation from the teacher model, and enhancing quality. Lastly, we modify the training procedure to enable multi-step sampling. We identify and address the training-inference input mismatch problem in this setting, by simulating inference-time generator samples during training time. Taken together, our improvements set new benchmarks in one-step image generation, with FID scores of 1.28 on ImageNet-64x64 and 8.35 on zero-shot COCO 2014, surpassing the original teacher despite a 500X reduction in inference cost. Further, we show our approach can generate megapixel images by distilling SDXL, demonstrating exceptional visual quality among few-step methods.

Generative policies trained with human demonstrations can autonomously accomplish multimodal, long-horizon tasks. However, during inference, humans are often removed from the policy execution loop, limiting the ability to guide a pre-trained policy towards a specific sub-goal or trajectory shape among multiple predictions. Naive human intervention may inadvertently exacerbate distribution shift, leading to constraint violations or execution failures. To better align policy output with human intent without inducing out-of-distribution errors, we propose an Inference-Time Policy Steering (ITPS) framework that leverages human interactions to bias the generative sampling process, rather than fine-tuning the policy on interaction data. We evaluate ITPS across three simulated and real-world benchmarks, testing three forms of human interaction and associated alignment distance metrics. Among six sampling strategies, our proposed stochastic sampling with diffusion policy achieves the best trade-off between alignment and distribution shift. Videos are available at https://yanweiw.github.io/itps/.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

Reconstruction of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data has been positively affected by deep learning. A key challenge remains: to improve generalisation to distribution shifts between the training and testing data. Most approaches aim to address this via inductive design or data augmentation. However, they can be affected by misleading data, e.g. random noise, and cases where the inference stage data do not match assumptions in the modelled shifts. In this work, by employing a conditional hyperparameter network, we eliminate the need of augmentation, yet maintain robust performance under various levels of Gaussian noise. We demonstrate that our model withstands various input noise levels while producing high-definition reconstructions during the test stage. Moreover, we present a hyperparameter sampling strategy that accelerates the convergence of training. Our proposed method achieves the highest accuracy and image quality in all settings compared to baseline methods.

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning paradigm that enables multiple clients to learn a powerful global model by aggregating local training. However, the performance of the global model is often hampered by non-i.i.d. distribution among the clients, requiring extensive efforts to mitigate inter-client data heterogeneity. Going beyond inter-client data heterogeneity, we note that intra-client heterogeneity can also be observed on complex real-world data and seriously deteriorate FL performance. In this paper, we present a novel FL algorithm, i.e., FedIns, to handle intra-client data heterogeneity by enabling instance-adaptive inference in the FL framework. Instead of huge instance-adaptive models, we resort to a parameter-efficient fine-tuning method, i.e., scale and shift deep features (SSF), upon a pre-trained model. Specifically, we first train an SSF pool for each client, and aggregate these SSF pools on the server side, thus still maintaining a low communication cost. To enable instance-adaptive inference, for a given instance, we dynamically find the best-matched SSF subsets from the pool and aggregate them to generate an adaptive SSF specified for the instance, thereby reducing the intra-client as well as the inter-client heterogeneity. Extensive experiments show that our FedIns outperforms state-of-the-art FL algorithms, e.g., a 6.64\% improvement against the top-performing method with less than 15\% communication cost on Tiny-ImageNet. Our code and models will be publicly released.

The attention mechanism of a transformer has a quadratic complexity, leading to high inference costs and latency for long sequences. However, attention matrices are mostly sparse, which implies that many entries may be omitted from computation for efficient inference. Sparse attention inference methods aim to reduce this computational burden; however, they also come with a troublesome performance degradation. We discover that one reason for this degradation is that the sparse calculation induces a distributional shift in the attention outputs. The distributional shift causes decoding-time queries to fail to align well with the appropriate keys from the prefill stage, leading to a drop in performance. We propose a simple, novel, and effective procedure for correcting this distributional shift, bringing the distribution of sparse attention outputs closer to that of quadratic attention. Our method can be applied on top of any sparse attention method, and results in an average 36%pt performance increase, recovering 88% of quadratic attention accuracy on the 131K RULER benchmark when applied on top of sliding window attention with sink tokens while only adding a small overhead. Our method can maintain approximately 98.5% sparsity over full quadratic attention, making our model 32 times faster than Flash Attention 2 when processing 1M token prefills.

Diffusion models generate high-quality images but require dozens of forward passes. We introduce Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD), a procedure to transform a diffusion model into a one-step image generator with minimal impact on image quality. We enforce the one-step image generator match the diffusion model at distribution level, by minimizing an approximate KL divergence whose gradient can be expressed as the difference between 2 score functions, one of the target distribution and the other of the synthetic distribution being produced by our one-step generator. The score functions are parameterized as two diffusion models trained separately on each distribution. Combined with a simple regression loss matching the large-scale structure of the multi-step diffusion outputs, our method outperforms all published few-step diffusion approaches, reaching 2.62 FID on ImageNet 64x64 and 11.49 FID on zero-shot COCO-30k, comparable to Stable Diffusion but orders of magnitude faster. Utilizing FP16 inference, our model generates images at 20 FPS on modern hardware.

Speech produced by human vocal apparatus conveys substantial non-semantic information including the gender of the speaker, voice quality, affective state, abnormalities in the vocal apparatus etc. Such information is attributed to the properties of the voice source signal, which is usually estimated from the speech signal. However, most of the source estimation techniques depend heavily on the goodness of the model assumptions and are prone to noise. A popular alternative is to indirectly obtain the source information through the Electroglottographic (EGG) signal that measures the electrical admittance around the vocal folds using dedicated hardware. In this paper, we address the problem of estimating the EGG signal directly from the speech signal, devoid of any hardware. Sampling from the intractable conditional distribution of the EGG signal given the speech signal is accomplished through optimization of an evidence lower bound. This is constructed via minimization of the KL-divergence between the true and the approximated posteriors of a latent variable learned using a deep neural auto-encoder that serves an informative prior. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method at generating the EGG signal by conducting several experiments on datasets comprising multiple speakers, voice qualities, noise settings and speech pathologies. The proposed method is evaluated on many benchmark metrics and is found to agree with the gold standard while proving better than the state-of-the-art algorithms on a few tasks such as epoch extraction.

In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and usually requires significant human labor. Relying on human labor often introduces annotation errors, including mislabeling, omissions, and inconsistency between annotators. In the case of remote sensing, differences in procurement time can lead to misaligned ground truth annotations. These label errors are not independently distributed, and instead usually appear in spatially connected regions where adjacent pixels are more likely to share the same errors. To address these issues, we propose an approximate Bayesian estimation based on a probabilistic model that assumes training data includes label errors, incorporating the tendency for these errors to occur with spatial correlations between adjacent pixels. Bayesian inference requires computing the posterior distribution of label errors, which becomes intractable when spatial correlations are present. We represent the correlation of label errors between adjacent pixels through a Gaussian distribution whose covariance is structured by a Kac-Murdock-Szeg\"{o} (KMS) matrix, solving the computational challenges. Through experiments on multiple segmentation tasks, we confirm that leveraging the spatial correlation of label errors significantly improves performance. Notably, in specific tasks such as lung segmentation, the proposed method achieves performance comparable to training with clean labels under moderate noise levels. Code is available at https://github.com/pfnet-research/Bayesian_SpatialCorr.

A central statistical problem in population genetics is to infer evolutionary and biological parameters such as the strength of natural selection and allele age from DNA samples extracted from a contemporary population. That all samples come only from the present-day has long been known to limit statistical inference; there is potentially more information available if one also has access to ancient DNA so that inference is based on a time-series of historical changes in allele frequencies. We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for Bayesian inference from allele frequency time-series data based on an underlying Wright--Fisher diffusion model of evolution, through which one can infer the parameters of essentially any selection model including those with frequency-dependent effects. The chief novelty is that we show this method to be exact in the sense that it is possible to augment the state space explored by MCMC with the unobserved diffusion trajectory, even though the transition function of this diffusion is intractable. Through careful design of a proposal distribution, we describe an efficient method in which updates to the trajectory and accept/reject decisions are calculated without error. We illustrate the method on data capturing changes in coat colour over the past 20,000 years, and find evidence to support previous findings that the mutant alleles ASIP and MC1R responsible for changes in coat color have experienced very strong, possibly overdominant, selection and further provide estimates for the ages of these genes.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This limits tractable querying of this knowledge to start-to-end autoregressive sampling. However, many tasks of interest -- including sequence continuation, infilling, and other forms of constrained generation -- involve sampling from intractable posterior distributions. We address this limitation by using amortized Bayesian inference to sample from these intractable posteriors. Such amortization is algorithmically achieved by fine-tuning LLMs via diversity-seeking reinforcement learning algorithms: generative flow networks (GFlowNets). We empirically demonstrate that this distribution-matching paradigm of LLM fine-tuning can serve as an effective alternative to maximum-likelihood training and reward-maximizing policy optimization. As an important application, we interpret chain-of-thought reasoning as a latent variable modeling problem and demonstrate that our approach enables data-efficient adaptation of LLMs to tasks that require multi-step rationalization and tool use.

Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution pi by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates pi by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to pi over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when pi is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when pi is only log-smooth.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Denoising-based generative models, particularly diffusion and flow matching algorithms, have achieved remarkable success. However, aligning their output distributions with complex downstream objectives, such as human preferences, compositional accuracy, or data compressibility, remains challenging. While reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning methods, inspired by advances in RL from human feedback (RLHF) for large language models, have been adapted to these generative frameworks, current RL approaches are suboptimal for diffusion models and offer limited flexibility in controlling alignment strength after fine-tuning. In this work, we reinterpret RL fine-tuning for diffusion models through the lens of stochastic differential equations and implicit reward conditioning. We introduce Reinforcement Learning Guidance (RLG), an inference-time method that adapts Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) by combining the outputs of the base and RL fine-tuned models via a geometric average. Our theoretical analysis shows that RLG's guidance scale is mathematically equivalent to adjusting the KL-regularization coefficient in standard RL objectives, enabling dynamic control over the alignment-quality trade-off without further training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RLG consistently improves the performance of RL fine-tuned models across various architectures, RL algorithms, and downstream tasks, including human preferences, compositional control, compressibility, and text rendering. Furthermore, RLG supports both interpolation and extrapolation, thereby offering unprecedented flexibility in controlling generative alignment. Our approach provides a practical and theoretically sound solution for enhancing and controlling diffusion model alignment at inference. The source code for RLG is publicly available at the Github: https://github.com/jinluo12345/Reinforcement-learning-guidance.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Transformer-based large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly important in various domains. However, the quadratic time complexity of attention operation poses a significant challenge for scaling to longer contexts due to the extremely high inference latency and GPU memory consumption for caching key-value (KV) vectors. This paper proposes RetrievalAttention, a training-free approach to accelerate attention computation. To leverage the dynamic sparse property of attention, RetrievalAttention builds approximate nearest neighbor search (ANNS) indexes upon KV vectors in CPU memory and retrieves the most relevant ones via vector search during generation. Due to the out-of-distribution (OOD) between query vectors and key vectors, off-the-shelf ANNS indexes still need to scan O(N) (usually 30% of all keys) data for accurate retrieval, which fails to exploit the high sparsity. RetrievalAttention first identifies the OOD challenge of ANNS-based attention, and addresses it via an attention-aware vector search algorithm that can adapt to queries and only access 1--3% of data, thus achieving a sub-linear time complexity. RetrievalAttention greatly reduces the inference cost of long-context LLM with much lower GPU memory requirements while maintaining the model accuracy. Especially, RetrievalAttention only needs 16GB GPU memory for serving 128K tokens in LLMs with 8B parameters, which is capable of generating one token in 0.188 seconds on a single NVIDIA RTX4090 (24GB).

Distilling video generation models to extremely low inference budgets (e.g., 2--4 NFEs) is crucial for real-time deployment, yet remains challenging. Trajectory-style consistency distillation often becomes conservative under complex video dynamics, yielding an over-smoothed appearance and weak motion. Distribution matching distillation (DMD) can recover sharp, mode-seeking samples, but its local training signals do not explicitly regularize how denoising updates compose across timesteps, making composed rollouts prone to drift. To overcome this challenge, we propose Self-Consistent Distribution Matching Distillation (SC-DMD), which explicitly regularizes the endpoint-consistent composition of consecutive denoising updates. For real-time autoregressive video generation, we further treat the KV cache as a quality parameterized condition and propose Cache-Distribution-Aware training. This training scheme applies SC-DMD over multi-step rollouts and introduces a cache-conditioned feature alignment objective that steers low-quality outputs toward high-quality references. Across extensive experiments on both non-autoregressive backbones (e.g., Wan~2.1) and autoregressive real-time paradigms (e.g., Self Forcing), our method, dubbed Salt, consistently improves low-NFE video generation quality while remaining compatible with diverse KV-cache memory mechanisms. Source code will be released at https://github.com/XingtongGe/Salt{https://github.com/XingtongGe/Salt}.

Accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs) is a critical challenge in generative AI. Speculative decoding (SD) methods offer substantial efficiency gains by generating multiple tokens using a single target forward pass. However, existing SD approaches require the drafter and target models to share the same vocabulary, thus limiting the pool of possible drafters, often necessitating the training of a drafter from scratch. We present three new SD methods that remove this shared-vocabulary constraint. All three methods preserve the target distribution (i.e., they are lossless) and work with off-the-shelf models without requiring additional training or modifications. Empirically, on summarization, programming, and long-context tasks, our algorithms achieve significant speedups over standard autoregressive decoding. By enabling any off-the-shelf model to serve as drafter and requiring no retraining, this work substantially broadens the applicability of the SD framework in practice.

Inference with modern Large Language Models (LLMs) is expensive and time-consuming, and speculative sampling has proven to be an effective solution. Most speculative sampling methods such as EAGLE use a static draft tree, implicitly assuming that the acceptance rate of draft tokens depends only on their position. Interestingly, we found that the acceptance rate of draft tokens is also context-dependent. In this paper, building upon EAGLE, we propose EAGLE-2, which introduces a new technique of context-aware dynamic draft tree into drafting modeling. This improvement leverages the fact that the draft model of EAGLE is well-calibrated: the confidence scores from the draft model approximate acceptance rates with small errors. We conducted extensive evaluations on three series of LLMs and six tasks, with EAGLE-2 achieving speedup ratios 3.05x-4.26x, which is 20%-40% faster than EAGLE-1. EAGLE-2 also ensures that the distribution of the generated text remains unchanged, making it a lossless acceleration algorithm.

A method is presented for accelerating inference in transformer language models by exploiting the low effective rank of the token activation manifold at each layer. The method decomposes each activation vector into a subspace component and a residual, computes the linear-layer output on the subspace component via a cached low-rank weight image at reduced memory bandwidth, and applies a per-token gate that determines whether the residual correction is computed or skipped. The gate ensures that the output distribution is preserved to within a controllable tolerance. Validation on three model families (GPT-2 124M, GPT-J 6B, OPT 6.7B) on AMD MI300X demonstrates effective speedups of 3.0x to 10.5x on linear-layer weight reads with perplexity ratios below 1.00 and top-1 token agreement above 98%. The method requires no retraining, no architectural modification, and no approximation of the attention mechanism. At the operating point (k = 256, ε = 0.05) on GPT-J 14 6B, the accelerated model produces character-for-character identical output to the baseline.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding reasoning capabilities on mathematical and coding tasks. However, their application to financial tasks-especially the most fundamental task of stock movement prediction-remains underexplored. We study a three-class classification problem (up, hold, down) and, by analyzing existing reasoning responses, observe that: (1) LLMs follow analysts' opinions rather than exhibit a systematic, independent analytical logic (CoTs). (2) LLMs list summaries from different sources without weighing adversarial evidence, yet such counterevidence is crucial for reliable prediction. It shows that the model does not make good use of its reasoning ability to complete the task. To address this, we propose Reflective Evidence Tuning (RETuning), a cold-start method prior to reinforcement learning, to enhance prediction ability. While generating CoT, RETuning encourages dynamically constructing an analytical framework from diverse information sources, organizing and scoring evidence for price up or down based on that framework-rather than on contextual viewpoints-and finally reflecting to derive the prediction. This approach maximally aligns the model with its learned analytical framework, ensuring independent logical reasoning and reducing undue influence from context. We also build a large-scale dataset spanning all of 2024 for 5,123 A-share stocks, with long contexts (32K tokens) and over 200K samples. In addition to price and news, it incorporates analysts' opinions, quantitative reports, fundamental data, macroeconomic indicators, and similar stocks. Experiments show that RETuning successfully unlocks the model's reasoning ability in the financial domain. Inference-time scaling still works even after 6 months or on out-of-distribution stocks, since the models gain valuable insights about stock movement prediction.

Visuomotor policies trained via behavior cloning are vulnerable to covariate shift, where small deviations from expert trajectories can compound into failure. Common strategies to mitigate this issue involve expanding the training distribution through human-in-the-loop corrections or synthetic data augmentation. However, these approaches are often labor-intensive, rely on strong task assumptions, or compromise the quality of imitation. We introduce Latent Policy Barrier, a framework for robust visuomotor policy learning. Inspired by Control Barrier Functions, LPB treats the latent embeddings of expert demonstrations as an implicit barrier separating safe, in-distribution states from unsafe, out-of-distribution (OOD) ones. Our approach decouples the role of precise expert imitation and OOD recovery into two separate modules: a base diffusion policy solely on expert data, and a dynamics model trained on both expert and suboptimal policy rollout data. At inference time, the dynamics model predicts future latent states and optimizes them to stay within the expert distribution. Both simulated and real-world experiments show that LPB improves both policy robustness and data efficiency, enabling reliable manipulation from limited expert data and without additional human correction or annotation.

Urban profiling aims to predict urban profiles in unknown regions and plays a critical role in economic and social censuses. Existing approaches typically follow a two-stage paradigm: first, learning representations of urban areas; second, performing downstream prediction via linear probing, which originates from the BERT era. Inspired by the development of GPT style models, recent studies have shown that novel self-supervised pretraining schemes can endow models with direct applicability to downstream tasks, thereby eliminating the need for task-specific fine-tuning. This is largely because GPT unifies the form of pretraining and inference through next-token prediction. However, urban data exhibit structural characteristics that differ fundamentally from language, making it challenging to design a one-stage model that unifies both pretraining and inference. In this work, we propose Urban In-Context Learning, a framework that unifies pretraining and inference via a masked autoencoding process over urban regions. To capture the distribution of urban profiles, we introduce the Urban Masked Diffusion Transformer, which enables each region' s prediction to be represented as a distribution rather than a deterministic value. Furthermore, to stabilize diffusion training, we propose the Urban Representation Alignment Mechanism, which regularizes the model's intermediate features by aligning them with those from classical urban profiling methods. Extensive experiments on three indicators across two cities demonstrate that our one-stage method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art two-stage approaches. Ablation studies and case studies further validate the effectiveness of each proposed module, particularly the use of diffusion modeling.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection holds significant importance across many applications. While semantic and domain-shift OOD problems are well-studied, this work focuses on covariate shifts - subtle variations in the data distribution that can degrade machine learning performance. We hypothesize that detecting these subtle shifts can improve our understanding of in-distribution boundaries, ultimately improving OOD detection. In adversarial discriminators trained with Batch Normalization (BN), real and adversarial samples form distinct domains with unique batch statistics - a property we exploit for OOD detection. We introduce DisCoPatch, an unsupervised Adversarial Variational Autoencoder (VAE) framework that harnesses this mechanism. During inference, batches consist of patches from the same image, ensuring a consistent data distribution that allows the model to rely on batch statistics. DisCoPatch uses the VAE's suboptimal outputs (generated and reconstructed) as negative samples to train the discriminator, thereby improving its ability to delineate the boundary between in-distribution samples and covariate shifts. By tightening this boundary, DisCoPatch achieves state-of-the-art results in public OOD detection benchmarks. The proposed model not only excels in detecting covariate shifts, achieving 95.5% AUROC on ImageNet-1K(-C) but also outperforms all prior methods on public Near-OOD (95.0%) benchmarks. With a compact model size of 25MB, it achieves high OOD detection performance at notably lower latency than existing methods, making it an efficient and practical solution for real-world OOD detection applications. The code is publicly available.

Generative models, particularly diffusion models, have made significant success in data synthesis across various modalities, including images, videos, and 3D assets. However, current diffusion models are computationally intensive, often requiring numerous sampling steps that limit their practical application, especially in video generation. This work introduces a novel framework for diffusion distillation and distribution matching that dramatically reduces the number of inference steps while maintaining-and potentially improving-generation quality. Our approach focuses on distilling pre-trained diffusion models into a more efficient few-step generator, specifically targeting video generation. By leveraging a combination of video GAN loss and a novel 2D score distribution matching loss, we demonstrate the potential to generate high-quality video frames with substantially fewer sampling steps. To be specific, the proposed method incorporates a denoising GAN discriminator to distil from the real data and a pre-trained image diffusion model to enhance the frame quality and the prompt-following capabilities. Experimental results using AnimateDiff as the teacher model showcase the method's effectiveness, achieving superior performance in just four sampling steps compared to existing techniques.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Training of the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) can be viewed as doing one step of probabilistic inference on missing values in data. We propose a new model that extends this inference scheme to multiple steps, arguing that it is easier to learn to improve a reconstruction in k steps rather than to learn to reconstruct in a single inference step. The proposed model is an unsupervised building block for deep learning that combines the desirable properties of NADE and multi-predictive training: (1) Its test likelihood can be computed analytically, (2) it is easy to generate independent samples from it, and (3) it uses an inference engine that is a superset of variational inference for Boltzmann machines. The proposed NADE-k is competitive with the state-of-the-art in density estimation on the two datasets tested.

Despite the remarkable strides made by autoregressive language models, their potential is often hampered by the slow inference speeds inherent in sequential token generation. Blockwise parallel decoding (BPD) was proposed by Stern et al. (2018) as a way to improve inference speed of language models. In this paper, we make two contributions to understanding and improving BPD drafts. We first offer an analysis of the token distributions produced by the BPD prediction heads. Secondly, we use this analysis to inform algorithms to improve BPD inference speed by refining the BPD drafts using small n-gram or neural language models. We empirically show that these refined BPD drafts yield a higher average verified prefix length across tasks.

Parameter estimation for gravitational-wave signals is computationally demanding due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space and the cost of repeated waveform generation in traditional Bayesian inference. These analyses require on the order of 10^8 likelihood evaluations and waveform generations, resulting in inference times of hours to days per event. Furthermore, discrepancies between waveform models introduce systematic uncertainties that can bias inferred source properties. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework based on Simulation-based Inference (SBI) and Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and apply it to signals from Intermediate-Mass Black Holes (IMBH). In this framework, we train a single amortised neural posterior estimator on a large simulated dataset generated using two state-of-the-art waveform approximants, IMRPhenomXPHM and SEOBNRv5PHM. By treating the waveform model index as a latent variable, the network learns to produce posterior distributions that are naturally marginalized over the discrepancies of the two waveform models. Once trained, the model enables direct posterior sampling in milliseconds per event, eliminating the need for likelihood evaluations while simultaneously accounting for model systematics. We demonstrate that this approach recovers accurate posterior distributions for IMBH signals injected into Gaussian noise, achieving close agreement with traditional nested-sampling results while reducing inference time by several orders of magnitude. Our results show that NPE can robustly incorporate waveform-model systematics within a unified framework, offering a scalable path toward rapid, systematics-aware gravitational-wave inference. Establishing these methods as promising alternatives to classical likelihood-based pipelines for current and future high-mass gravitational-wave observations.

We investigate the effects of prior selection on the inferred mass and spin parameters of the neutron star-black hole merger GW230529\_181500. Specifically, we explore models motivated by astrophysical considerations, including massive binary and pulsar evolution. We examine mass and spin distributions of neutron stars constrained by radio pulsar observations, alongside black hole spin observations from previous gravitational wave detections. We show that the inferred mass distribution highly depends upon the spin prior. Specifically, under the most restrictive, binary stellar evolution models, we obtain narrower distributions of masses with a black hole mass of 4.3^{+0.1}_{-0.1},M_{odot}and neutron star mass of 1.3^{+0.03}_{-0.03},M_{odot} where, somewhat surprisingly, it is the prior on component spins which has the greatest impact on the inferred mass distributions. Re-weighting using neutron star mass and spin priors from observations of radio pulsars, with black hole spins from observations of gravitational waves, yields the black hole and the neutron star masses to be 3.8^{+0.5}_{-0.6} ,M_odot and 1.4^{+0.2}_{-0.1} ,M_odot respectively. The sequence of compact object formation -- whether the neutron star or the black hole formed first -- cannot be determined at the observed signal-to-noise ratio. However, there is no evidence that the black hole was tidally spun up.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

The pretraining data of today's strongest language models is opaque. In particular, little is known about the proportions of various domains or languages represented. In this work, we tackle a task which we call data mixture inference, which aims to uncover the distributional make-up of training data. We introduce a novel attack based on a previously overlooked source of information -- byte-pair encoding (BPE) tokenizers, used by the vast majority of modern language models. Our key insight is that the ordered list of merge rules learned by a BPE tokenizer naturally reveals information about the token frequencies in its training data: the first merge is the most common byte pair, the second is the most common pair after merging the first token, and so on. Given a tokenizer's merge list along with data samples for each category of interest, we formulate a linear program that solves for the proportion of each category in the tokenizer's training set. Importantly, to the extent to which tokenizer training data is representative of the pretraining data, we indirectly learn about the pretraining data. In controlled experiments, we show that our attack recovers mixture ratios with high precision for tokenizers trained on known mixtures of natural languages, programming languages, and data sources. We then apply our approach to off-the-shelf tokenizers released with recent LMs. We confirm much publicly disclosed information about these models, and also make several new inferences: GPT-4o's tokenizer is much more multilingual than its predecessors, training on 39% non-English data; Llama3 extends GPT-3.5's tokenizer primarily for multilingual (48%) use; GPT-3.5's and Claude's tokenizers are trained on predominantly code (~60%). We hope our work sheds light on current design practices for pretraining data, and inspires continued research into data mixture inference for LMs.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a task that detects OOD samples during inference to ensure the safety of deployed models. However, conventional benchmarks have reached performance saturation, making it difficult to compare recent OOD detection methods. To address this challenge, we introduce three novel OOD detection benchmarks that enable a deeper understanding of method characteristics and reflect real-world conditions. First, we present ImageNet-X, designed to evaluate performance under challenging semantic shifts. Second, we propose ImageNet-FS-X for full-spectrum OOD detection, assessing robustness to covariate shifts (feature distribution shifts). Finally, we propose Wilds-FS-X, which extends these evaluations to real-world datasets, offering a more comprehensive testbed. Our experiments reveal that recent CLIP-based OOD detection methods struggle to varying degrees across the three proposed benchmarks, and none of them consistently outperforms the others. We hope the community goes beyond specific benchmarks and includes more challenging conditions reflecting real-world scenarios. The code is https://github.com/hoshi23/OOD-X-Benchmarks.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is frequently employed in fine-tuning large language models (LMs), such as GPT-3, to penalize them for undesirable features of generated sequences, such as offensiveness, social bias, harmfulness or falsehood. The RL formulation involves treating the LM as a policy and updating it to maximise the expected value of a reward function which captures human preferences, such as non-offensiveness. In this paper, we analyze challenges associated with treating a language model as an RL policy and show how avoiding those challenges requires moving beyond the RL paradigm. We start by observing that the standard RL approach is flawed as an objective for fine-tuning LMs because it leads to distribution collapse: turning the LM into a degenerate distribution. Then, we analyze KL-regularised RL, a widely used recipe for fine-tuning LMs, which additionally constrains the fine-tuned LM to stay close to its original distribution in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We show that KL-regularised RL is equivalent to variational inference: approximating a Bayesian posterior which specifies how to update a prior LM to conform with evidence provided by the reward function. We argue that this Bayesian inference view of KL-regularised RL is more insightful than the typically employed RL perspective. The Bayesian inference view explains how KL-regularised RL avoids the distribution collapse problem and offers a first-principles derivation for its objective. While this objective happens to be equivalent to RL (with a particular choice of parametric reward), there exist other objectives for fine-tuning LMs which are no longer equivalent to RL. That observation leads to a more general point: RL is not an adequate formal framework for problems such as fine-tuning language models. These problems are best viewed as Bayesian inference: approximating a pre-defined target distribution.

We present the first systematic Membership Inference Attack (MIA) evaluation of Large Audio Language Models (LALMs). As audio encodes non-semantic information, it induces severe train and test distribution shifts and can lead to spurious MIA performance. Using a multi-modal blind baseline based on textual, spectral, and prosodic features, we demonstrate that common speech datasets exhibit near-perfect train/test separability (AUC approximately 1.0) even without model inference, and the standard MIA scores strongly correlate with these blind acoustic artifacts (correlation greater than 0.7). Using this blind baseline, we identify that distribution-matched datasets enable reliable MIA evaluation without distribution shift confounds. We benchmark multiple MIA methods and conduct modality disentanglement experiments on these datasets. The results reveal that LALM memorization is cross-modal, arising only from binding a speaker's vocal identity with its text. These findings establish a principled standard for auditing LALMs beyond spurious correlations.

Multimodal deep learning (MDL) has achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet its practical deployment is often hindered by incomplete multimodal data. Existing incomplete MDL methods either discard missing modalities, risking the loss of valuable task-relevant information, or recover them, potentially introducing irrelevant noise, leading to the discarding-imputation dilemma. To address this dilemma, in this paper, we propose DyMo, a new inference-time dynamic modality selection framework that adaptively identifies and integrates reliable recovered modalities, fully exploring task-relevant information beyond the conventional discard-or-impute paradigm. Central to DyMo is a novel selection algorithm that maximizes multimodal task-relevant information for each test sample. Since direct estimation of such information at test time is intractable due to the unknown data distribution, we theoretically establish a connection between information and the task loss, which we compute at inference time as a tractable proxy. Building on this, a novel principled reward function is proposed to guide modality selection. In addition, we design a flexible multimodal network architecture compatible with arbitrary modality combinations, alongside a tailored training strategy for robust representation learning. Extensive experiments on diverse natural and medical image datasets show that DyMo significantly outperforms state-of-the-art incomplete/dynamic MDL methods across various missing-data scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com//siyi-wind/DyMo.

Automatic workflow generation is the process of automatically synthesizing sequences of LLM calls, tool invocations, and post-processing steps for complex end-to-end tasks. Most prior methods cast this task as an optimization problem with limited theoretical grounding. We propose to cast workflow generation as Bayesian inference over a posterior distribution on workflows, and introduce Bayesian Workflow Generation (BWG), a sampling framework that builds workflows step-by-step using parallel look-ahead rollouts for importance weighting and a sequential in-loop refiner for pool-wide improvements. We prove that, without the refiner, the weighted empirical distribution converges to the target posterior. We instantiate BWG as BayesFlow, a training-free algorithm for workflow construction. Across six benchmark datasets, BayesFlow improves accuracy by up to 9 percentage points over SOTA workflow generation baselines and by up to 65 percentage points over zero-shot prompting, establishing BWG as a principled upgrade to search-based workflow design. Code will be available on https://github.com/BoYuanVisionary/BayesFlow.

Power distribution networks are evolving due to the integration of DERs and increased customer participation. To maintain optimal operation, minimize losses, and meet varying load demands, frequent network reconfiguration is necessary. Traditionally, the reconfiguration task relies on optimization software and expert operators, but as systems grow more complex, faster and more adaptive solutions are required without expert intervention. Data-driven reconfiguration is gaining traction for its accuracy, speed, and robustness against incomplete network data. LLMs, with their ability to capture complex patterns, offer a promising approach for efficient and responsive network reconfiguration in evolving complex power networks. In this work, we introduce LLM4DistReconfig, a deep learning-based approach utilizing a fine-tuned LLM to solve the distribution network reconfiguration problem. By carefully crafting prompts and designing a custom loss function, we train the LLM with inputs representing network parameters such as buses, available lines, open lines, node voltages, and system loss. The model then predicts optimal reconfigurations by outputting updated network configurations that minimize system loss while meeting operational constraints. Our approach significantly reduces inference time compared to classical algorithms, allowing for near real-time optimal reconfiguration after training. Experimental results show that our method generates optimal configurations minimizing system loss for five individual and a combined test dataset. It also produces minimal invalid edges, no cycles, or subgraphs across all datasets, fulfilling domain-specific needs. Additionally, the generated responses contain less than 5% improper outputs on seen networks and satisfactory results on unseen networks, demonstrating its effectiveness and reliability for the reconfiguration task.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized natural language processing tasks. However, their practical application is constrained by substantial memory and computational demands. Post-training quantization (PTQ) is considered an effective method to accelerate LLM inference. Despite its growing popularity in LLM model compression, PTQ deployment faces two major challenges. First, low-bit quantization leads to performance degradation. Second, restricted by the limited integer computing unit type on GPUs, quantized matrix operations with different precisions cannot be effectively accelerated. To address these issues, we introduce a novel arbitrary-bit quantization algorithm and inference framework, ABQ-LLM. It achieves superior performance across various quantization settings and enables efficient arbitrary-precision quantized inference on the GPU. ABQ-LLM introduces several key innovations: (1) a distribution correction method for transformer blocks to mitigate distribution differences caused by full quantization of weights and activations, improving performance at low bit-widths. (2) the bit balance strategy to counteract performance degradation from asymmetric distribution issues at very low bit-widths (e.g., 2-bit). (3) an innovative quantization acceleration framework that reconstructs the quantization matrix multiplication of arbitrary precision combinations based on BTC (Binary TensorCore) equivalents, gets rid of the limitations of INT4/INT8 computing units. ABQ-LLM can convert each component bit width gain into actual acceleration gain, maximizing performance under mixed precision(e.g., W6A6, W2A8). Based on W2*A8 quantization configuration on LLaMA-7B model, it achieved a WikiText2 perplexity of 7.59 (2.17downarrow vs 9.76 in AffineQuant). Compared to SmoothQuant, we realized 1.6times acceleration improvement and 2.7times memory compression gain.

Large language models (LLMs) propel the prosperity of interactive AI applications showcased by ChatGPT that demand timely response of inference services. However, LLM inference is computation intensive and memory intensive, and improper parameter configuration at LLM platforms may exacerbate the inference time. In this paper, we analyze the impact of LLM output token distribution on the inference queueing delay, where the max-token clipping and the batched inference are considered. By formulating an M/G/1 model, we observe that enforcing a maximum output token limit on a very small fraction of inference requests can significantly reduce the queueing delay, and our model facilitates the selection of the optimal limit. For the batch inference, we model the service process as a bulk queue in which the batch processing time is affected by the batch size and the maximum token size inside this batch jointly. The queueing delays of the batching of all buffered requests (dynamic batching), the batching of constant number of requests (fixed batching), and the batching without intra-batch waiting (elastic batching) are derived. Experimental results show that our mathematical models coincide with the event-driven simulations well.

Despite the remarkable strides of Large Language Models (LLMs) in various fields, the wide applications of LLMs on edge devices are limited due to their massive parameters and computations. To address this, quantization is commonly adopted to generate lightweight LLMs with efficient computations and fast inference. However, Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) methods dramatically degrade in quality when quantizing weights, activations, and KV cache together to below 8 bits. Besides, many Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) works quantize model weights, leaving the activations untouched, which do not fully exploit the potential of quantization for inference acceleration on the edge. In this paper, we propose EdgeQAT, the Entropy and Distribution Guided QAT for the optimization of lightweight LLMs to achieve inference acceleration on Edge devices. We first identify that the performance drop of quantization primarily stems from the information distortion in quantized attention maps, demonstrated by the different distributions in quantized query and key of the self-attention mechanism. Then, the entropy and distribution guided QAT is proposed to mitigate the information distortion. Moreover, we design a token importance-aware adaptive method to dynamically quantize the tokens with different bit widths for further optimization and acceleration. Our extensive experiments verify the substantial improvements with our framework across various datasets. Furthermore, we achieve an on-device speedup of up to 2.37x compared with its FP16 counterparts across multiple edge devices, signaling a groundbreaking advancement.

As a novel and effective fine-tuning paradigm based on large-scale pre-trained language models (PLMs), prompt-tuning aims to reduce the gap between downstream tasks and pre-training objectives. While prompt-tuning has yielded continuous advancements in various tasks, such an approach still remains a persistent defect: prompt-tuning methods fail to generalize to specific few-shot patterns. From the perspective of distribution analyses, we disclose that the intrinsic issues behind the phenomenon are the over-multitudinous conceptual knowledge contained in PLMs and the abridged knowledge for target downstream domains, which jointly result in that PLMs mis-locate the knowledge distributions corresponding to the target domains in the universal knowledge embedding space. To this end, we intuitively explore to approximate the unabridged target domains of downstream tasks in a debiased manner, and then abstract such domains to generate discriminative prompts, thereby providing the de-ambiguous guidance for PLMs. Guided by such an intuition, we propose a simple yet effective approach, namely BayesPrompt, to learn prompts that contain the domain discriminative information against the interference from domain-irrelevant knowledge. BayesPrompt primitively leverages known distributions to approximate the debiased factual distributions of target domains and further uniformly samples certain representative features from the approximated distributions to generate the ultimate prompts for PLMs. We provide theoretical insights with the connection to domain adaptation. Empirically, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmarks.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Deploying models on target domain data subject to distribution shift requires adaptation. Test-time training (TTT) emerges as a solution to this adaptation under a realistic scenario where access to full source domain data is not available and instant inference on target domain is required. Despite many efforts into TTT, there is a confusion over the experimental settings, thus leading to unfair comparisons. In this work, we first revisit TTT assumptions and categorize TTT protocols by two key factors. Among the multiple protocols, we adopt a realistic sequential test-time training (sTTT) protocol, under which we further develop a test-time anchored clustering (TTAC) approach to enable stronger test-time feature learning. TTAC discovers clusters in both source and target domain and match the target clusters to the source ones to improve generalization. Pseudo label filtering and iterative updating are developed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of anchored clustering. We demonstrate that under all TTT protocols TTAC consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six TTT datasets. We hope this work will provide a fair benchmarking of TTT methods and future research should be compared within respective protocols. A demo code is available at https://github.com/Gorilla-Lab-SCUT/TTAC.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Speculative decoding accelerates autoregressive generation by letting a lightweight draft model propose future tokens that a larger target model then verifies in parallel. In practice, however, draft models are usually trained on broad generic corpora, which leaves it unclear how much speculative decoding quality depends on the draft training distribution. We study this question with lightweight HASS and EAGLE-2 drafters trained on MathInstruct, ShareGPT, and mixed-data variants, evaluated on MT-Bench, GSM8K, MATH-500, and SVAMP. Measured by acceptance length, task-specific training yields clear specialization: MathInstruct-trained drafts are strongest on reasoning benchmarks, while ShareGPT-trained drafts are strongest on MT-Bench. Mixed-data training improves robustness, but larger mixtures do not dominate across decoding temperatures. We also study how to combine specialized drafters at inference time. Naive checkpoint averaging performs poorly, whereas confidence-based routing improves over single-domain drafts and merged-tree verification yields the highest acceptance length overall for both backbones. Finally, confidence is a more useful routing signal than entropy: rejected tokens tend to have higher entropy, but confidence produces much clearer benchmark-level routing decisions. These results show that speculative decoding quality depends not only on draft architecture, but also on the match between draft training data and downstream workload, and that specialized drafters are better combined at inference time than in weight space.

Text-to-image diffusion models have achieved tremendous success in the field of controllable image generation, while also coming along with issues of privacy leakage and data copyrights. Membership inference arises in these contexts as a potential auditing method for detecting unauthorized data usage. While some efforts have been made on diffusion models, they are not applicable to text-to-image diffusion models due to the high computation overhead and enhanced generalization capabilities. In this paper, we first identify a conditional overfitting phenomenon in text-to-image diffusion models, indicating that these models tend to overfit the conditional distribution of images given the corresponding text rather than the marginal distribution of images only. Based on this observation, we derive an analytical indicator, namely Conditional Likelihood Discrepancy (CLiD), to perform membership inference, which reduces the stochasticity in estimating memorization of individual samples. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous methods across various data distributions and dataset scales. Additionally, our method shows superior resistance to overfitting mitigation strategies, such as early stopping and data augmentation.

Efficiently managing compute resources for Large Language Model (LLM) inference remains challenging due to the inherently stochastic and variable lengths of autoregressive text generation. Accurately estimating response lengths in advance enables proactive resource allocation, yet existing approaches either bias text generation towards certain lengths or rely on assumptions that ignore model- and prompt-specific variability. We introduce CASTILLO, a dataset characterizing response length distributions across 13 widely-used open-source LLMs evaluated on seven distinct instruction-following corpora. For each langleprompt, modelrangle sample pair, we generate 10 independent completions using fixed decoding hyper-parameters, record the token length of each response, and publish summary statistics (mean, std-dev, percentiles), along with the shortest and longest completions, and the exact generation settings. Our analysis reveals significant inter- and intra-model variability in response lengths (even under identical generation settings), as well as model-specific behaviors and occurrences of partial text degeneration in only subsets of responses. CASTILLO enables the development of predictive models for proactive scheduling and provides a systematic framework for analyzing model-specific generation behaviors. We publicly release the dataset and code to foster research at the intersection of generative language modeling and systems.

Deep generative models produce data according to a learned representation, e.g. diffusion models, through a process of approximation computing possible samples. Approximation can be understood as reconstruction and the large datasets used to train models as sets of records in which we represent the physical world with some data structure (photographs, audio recordings, manuscripts). During the process of reconstruction, e.g., image frames develop each timestep towards a textual input description. While moving forward in time, frame sets are shaped according to learned bias and their production, we argue here, can be considered as going back in time; not by inspiration on the backward diffusion process but acknowledging culture is specifically marked in the records. Futures of generative modelling, namely in film and audiovisual arts, can benefit by dealing with diffusion systems as a process to compute the future by inevitably being tied to the past, if acknowledging the records as to capture fields of view at a specific time, and to correlate with our own finite memory ideals. Models generating new data distributions can target video production as signal processors and by developing sequences through timelines we ourselves also go back to decade-old algorithmic and multi-track methodologies revealing the actual predictive failure of contemporary approaches to synthesis in moving image, both as relevant to composition and not explanatory.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Differential equations in general and neural ODEs in particular are an essential technique in continuous-time system identification. While many deterministic learning algorithms have been designed based on numerical integration via the adjoint method, many downstream tasks such as active learning, exploration in reinforcement learning, robust control, or filtering require accurate estimates of predictive uncertainties. In this work, we propose a novel approach towards estimating epistemically uncertain neural ODEs, avoiding the numerical integration bottleneck. Instead of modeling uncertainty in the ODE parameters, we directly model uncertainties in the state space. Our algorithm - distributional gradient matching (DGM) - jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model and matches their gradients via minimizing a Wasserstein loss. Our experiments show that, compared to traditional approximate inference methods based on numerical integration, our approach is faster to train, faster at predicting previously unseen trajectories, and in the context of neural ODEs, significantly more accurate.

We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as a stochastic encoder of the data. We develop stochastic back-propagation -- rules for back-propagation through stochastic variables -- and use this to develop an algorithm that allows for joint optimisation of the parameters of both the generative and recognition model. We demonstrate on several real-world data sets that the model generates realistic samples, provides accurate imputations of missing data and is a useful tool for high-dimensional data visualisation.

Distribution matching distillation (DMD) aligns a multi-step generator with its few-step counterpart to enable high-quality generation under low inference cost. However, DMD tends to suffer from mode collapse, as its reverse-KL formulation inherently encourages mode-seeking behavior, for which existing remedies typically rely on perceptual or adversarial regularization, thereby incurring substantial computational overhead and training instability. In this work, we propose a role-separated distillation framework that explicitly disentangles the roles of distilled steps: the first step is dedicated to preserving sample diversity via a target-prediction (e.g., v-prediction) objective, while subsequent steps focus on quality refinement under the standard DMD loss, with gradients from the DMD objective blocked at the first step. We term this approach Diversity-Preserved DMD (DP-DMD), which, despite its simplicity -- no perceptual backbone, no discriminator, no auxiliary networks, and no additional ground-truth images -- preserves sample diversity while maintaining visual quality on par with state-of-the-art methods in extensive text-to-image experiments.

Diffusion LLMs have emerged as a promising alternative to conventional autoregressive LLMs, offering significant potential for improved runtime efficiency. However, existing diffusion models lack the ability to provably enforce user-specified formal constraints, such as regular expressions, which makes them unreliable for tasks that require structured outputs, such as fixed-schema JSON generation. Unlike autoregressive models that generate tokens sequentially, diffusion LLMs predict a block of tokens in parallel. This parallelism makes traditional constrained decoding algorithms, which are designed for sequential token prediction, ineffective at preserving the true output distribution. To address this limitation, we propose DINGO, a dynamic programming-based constrained decoding strategy that is both efficient and provably distribution-preserving. DINGO enables sampling of output strings with the highest probability under the model's predicted distribution, while strictly satisfying any user-specified regular expression. On standard symbolic math and JSON generation benchmarks, DINGO achieves up to a 68 percentage point improvement over unconstrained inference

Recent advancements in video large multimodal models (LMMs) have significantly improved their video understanding and reasoning capabilities. However, their performance drops on out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks that are underrepresented in training data. Traditional methods like fine-tuning on OOD datasets are impractical due to high computational costs. While In-context learning (ICL) with demonstration examples has shown promising generalization performance in language tasks and image-language tasks without fine-tuning, applying ICL to video-language tasks faces challenges due to the limited context length in Video LMMs, as videos require longer token lengths. To address these issues, we propose VideoICL, a novel video in-context learning framework for OOD tasks that introduces a similarity-based relevant example selection strategy and a confidence-based iterative inference approach. This allows to select the most relevant examples and rank them based on similarity, to be used for inference. If the generated response has low confidence, our framework selects new examples and performs inference again, iteratively refining the results until a high-confidence response is obtained. This approach improves OOD video understanding performance by extending effective context length without incurring high costs. The experimental results on multiple benchmarks demonstrate significant performance gains, especially in domain-specific scenarios, laying the groundwork for broader video comprehension applications. Code will be released at https://github.com/KangsanKim07/VideoICL

Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) distills a pre-trained multi-step diffusion model to a few-step one to improve inference efficiency. However, the performance of the latter is often capped by the former. To circumvent this dilemma, we propose DMDR, a novel framework that combines Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques into the distillation process. We show that for the RL of the few-step generator, the DMD loss itself is a more effective regularization compared to the traditional ones. In turn, RL can help to guide the mode coverage process in DMD more effectively. These allow us to unlock the capacity of the few-step generator by conducting distillation and RL simultaneously. Meanwhile, we design the dynamic distribution guidance and dynamic renoise sampling training strategies to improve the initial distillation process. The experiments demonstrate that DMDR can achieve leading visual quality, prompt coherence among few-step methods, and even exhibit performance that exceeds the multi-step teacher.

While long-context inference is crucial for advancing large language model (LLM) applications, its prefill speed remains a significant bottleneck. Current approaches, including sequence parallelism strategies and compute reduction through approximate attention mechanisms, still fall short of delivering optimal inference efficiency. This hinders scaling the inputs to longer sequences and processing long-context queries in a timely manner. To address this, we introduce APB, an efficient long-context inference framework that leverages multi-host approximate attention to enhance prefill speed by reducing compute and enhancing parallelism simultaneously. APB introduces a communication mechanism for essential key-value pairs within a sequence parallelism framework, enabling a faster inference speed while maintaining task performance. We implement APB by incorporating a tailored FlashAttn kernel alongside optimized distribution strategies, supporting diverse models and parallelism configurations. APB achieves speedups of up to 9.2x, 4.2x, and 1.6x compared with FlashAttn, RingAttn, and StarAttn, respectively, without any observable task performance degradation. We provide the implementation and experiment code of APB in https://github.com/thunlp/APB.

Recent works in Natural Language Inference (NLI) and related tasks, such as automated fact-checking, employ atomic fact decomposition to enhance interpretability and robustness. For this, existing methods rely on resource-intensive generative large language models (LLMs) to perform decomposition. We propose JEDI, an encoder-only architecture that jointly performs extractive atomic fact decomposition and interpretable inference without requiring generative models during inference. To facilitate training, we produce a large corpus of synthetic rationales covering multiple NLI benchmarks. Experimental results demonstrate that JEDI achieves competitive accuracy in distribution and significantly improves robustness out of distribution and in adversarial settings over models based solely on extractive rationale supervision. Our findings show that interpretability and robust generalization in NLI can be realized using encoder-only architectures and synthetic rationales. Code and data available at https://jedi.nicpopovic.com

Large language models (LMs) such as GPT-3 have the surprising ability to do in-context learning, where the model learns to do a downstream task simply by conditioning on a prompt consisting of input-output examples. The LM learns from these examples without being explicitly pretrained to learn. Thus, it is unclear what enables in-context learning. In this paper, we study how in-context learning can emerge when pretraining documents have long-range coherence. Here, the LM must infer a latent document-level concept to generate coherent next tokens during pretraining. At test time, in-context learning occurs when the LM also infers a shared latent concept between examples in a prompt. We prove when this occurs despite a distribution mismatch between prompts and pretraining data in a setting where the pretraining distribution is a mixture of HMMs. In contrast to messy large-scale datasets used to train LMs capable of in-context learning, we generate a small-scale synthetic dataset (GINC) where Transformers and LSTMs both exhibit in-context learning. Beyond the theory, experiments on GINC exhibit large-scale real-world phenomena including improved in-context performance with model scaling (despite the same pretraining loss), sensitivity to example order, and instances where zero-shot is better than few-shot in-context learning.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) suffer from prohibitive inference costs due to the massive number of visual tokens processed by the language decoder. Existing pruning methods often lead to significant performance degradation because the irreversible removal of visual tokens causes a distribution shift in the hidden states that deviates from the pre-trained full-token regime. To address this, we propose Representation Consistency Pruner, which we refer to as RCP, as a novel framework that integrates cumulative visual token pruning with a delayed repair mechanism. Specifically, we introduce a cross-attention pruner that leverages the intrinsic attention of the LLM as a baseline to predict cumulative masks, ensuring consistent and monotonic token reduction across layers. To compensate for the resulting information loss, we design a delayed repair adapter denoted as DRA, which caches the essence of pruned tokens and applies FiLM-based modulation specifically to the answer generation tokens. We employ a repair loss to match the first and second-order statistics of the pruned representations with a full-token teacher. RCP is highly efficient because it trains only lightweight plug-in modules while allowing for physical token discarding at inference. Extensive experiments on LVLM benchmarks demonstrate that RCP removes up to 88.9\% of visual tokens and reduces FLOPs by up to 85.7\% with only a marginal average accuracy drop, and outperforms prior methods that avoid fine-tuning the original model on several widely used benchmarks.

Structural pruning enhances hardware-agnostic inference efficiency for large language models (LLMs) yet often fails to maintain comparable performance. Local pruning performs efficient layer-by-layer compression but ignores global topology. Although global pruning aims to identify an optimal sparse model, intuitive methods typically adopt a two-stage paradigm that first evaluates substructure saliency and then applies global pruning, which ignores inter-structure dependencies and fails to achieve end-to-end optimization. To address these limitations, we propose T\'yr-the-Pruner, an efficient end-to-end search-based global structural pruning framework. This framework constructs a supernet by repeatedly applying local pruning across a range of sparsity ratios to each layer in an LLM, with the core goal of determining the optimal sparsity distribution under a target overall sparsity ratio. Concretely, we introduce an effective local pruning and an expectation error accumulation approach to improve supernet construction. Furthermore, we employ an iterative prune-and-search strategy with coarse-to-fine sparsity granularity to ensure efficient search convergence. Experimental results show that T\'yr-the-Pruner achieves state-of-the-art structural pruning, retaining 97% of the dense model's performance while removing a challenging 50% of Llama-3.1-70B's parameters. Code will be available at https://github.com/AMD-AGI/Tyr-the-Pruner.

Diffusion distillation models effectively accelerate reverse sampling by compressing the process into fewer steps. However, these models still exhibit a performance gap compared to their pre-trained diffusion model counterparts, exacerbated by distribution shifts and accumulated errors during multi-step sampling. To address this, we introduce Distillation++, a novel inference-time distillation framework that reduces this gap by incorporating teacher-guided refinement during sampling. Inspired by recent advances in conditional sampling, our approach recasts student model sampling as a proximal optimization problem with a score distillation sampling loss (SDS). To this end, we integrate distillation optimization during reverse sampling, which can be viewed as teacher guidance that drives student sampling trajectory towards the clean manifold using pre-trained diffusion models. Thus, Distillation++ improves the denoising process in real-time without additional source data or fine-tuning. Distillation++ demonstrates substantial improvements over state-of-the-art distillation baselines, particularly in early sampling stages, positioning itself as a robust guided sampling process crafted for diffusion distillation models. Code: https://github.com/geonyeong-park/inference_distillation.

Text-to-image diffusion models (DMs) develop at an unprecedented pace, supported by thorough theoretical exploration and empirical analysis. Unfortunately, the discrepancy between DMs and autoregressive models (ARMs) complicates the path toward achieving the goal of unified vision and language generation. Recently, the masked generative Transformer (MGT) serves as a promising intermediary between DM and ARM by predicting randomly masked image tokens (i.e., masked image modeling), combining the efficiency of DM with the discrete token nature of ARM. However, we find that the comprehensive analyses regarding the inference for MGT are virtually non-existent, and thus we aim to present positive design choices to fill this gap. We modify and re-design a set of DM-based inference techniques for MGT and further elucidate their performance on MGT. We also discuss the approach to correcting token's distribution to enhance inference. Extensive experiments and empirical analyses lead to concrete and effective design choices, and these design choices can be merged to achieve further performance gains. For instance, in terms of enhanced inference, we achieve winning rates of approximately 70% compared to vanilla sampling on HPS v2 with the recent SOTA MGT Meissonic. Our contributions have the potential to further enhance the capabilities and future development of MGTs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often trained on vast amounts of undisclosed data, motivating the development of post-hoc Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) to gain insight into their training data composition. However, in this paper, we identify inherent challenges in post-hoc MIA evaluation due to potential distribution shifts between collected member and non-member datasets. Using a simple bag-of-words classifier, we demonstrate that datasets used in recent post-hoc MIAs suffer from significant distribution shifts, in some cases achieving near-perfect distinction between members and non-members. This implies that previously reported high MIA performance may be largely attributable to these shifts rather than model memorization. We confirm that randomized, controlled setups eliminate such shifts and thus enable the development and fair evaluation of new MIAs. However, we note that such randomized setups are rarely available for the latest LLMs, making post-hoc data collection still required to infer membership for real-world LLMs. As a potential solution, we propose a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) approach for post-hoc data collection, which substantially mitigates distribution shifts. Evaluating various MIA methods on this RDD setup yields performance barely above random guessing, in stark contrast to previously reported results. Overall, our findings highlight the challenges in accurately measuring LLM memorization and the need for careful experimental design in (post-hoc) membership inference tasks.

This paper presents PipeFusion, an innovative parallel methodology to tackle the high latency issues associated with generating high-resolution images using diffusion transformers (DiTs) models. PipeFusion partitions images into patches and the model layers across multiple GPUs. It employs a patch-level pipeline parallel strategy to orchestrate communication and computation efficiently. By capitalizing on the high similarity between inputs from successive diffusion steps, PipeFusion reuses one-step stale feature maps to provide context for the current pipeline step. This approach notably reduces communication costs compared to existing DiTs inference parallelism, including tensor parallel, sequence parallel and DistriFusion. PipeFusion enhances memory efficiency through parameter distribution across devices, ideal for large DiTs like Flux.1. Experimental results demonstrate that PipeFusion achieves state-of-the-art performance on 8timesL40 PCIe GPUs for Pixart, Stable-Diffusion 3, and Flux.1 models. Our source code is available at https://github.com/xdit-project/xDiT.

Recently, the scale of transformers has grown rapidly, which introduces considerable challenges in terms of training overhead and inference efficiency in the scope of task adaptation. Existing works, namely Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) and model compression, have separately investigated the challenges. However, PEFT cannot guarantee the inference efficiency of the original backbone, especially for large-scale models. Model compression requires significant training costs for structure searching and re-training. Consequently, a simple combination of them cannot guarantee accomplishing both training efficiency and inference efficiency with minimal costs. In this paper, we propose a novel Parallel Yielding Re-Activation (PYRA) method for such a challenge of training-inference efficient task adaptation. PYRA first utilizes parallel yielding adaptive weights to comprehensively perceive the data distribution in downstream tasks. A re-activation strategy for token modulation is then applied for tokens to be merged, leading to calibrated token features. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PYRA outperforms all competing methods under both low compression rate and high compression rate, demonstrating its effectiveness and superiority in maintaining both training efficiency and inference efficiency for large-scale foundation models. Our code will be released to the public.

We study the problem of training diffusion models to sample from a distribution with a given unnormalized density or energy function. We benchmark several diffusion-structured inference methods, including simulation-based variational approaches and off-policy methods (continuous generative flow networks). Our results shed light on the relative advantages of existing algorithms while bringing into question some claims from past work. We also propose a novel exploration strategy for off-policy methods, based on local search in the target space with the use of a replay buffer, and show that it improves the quality of samples on a variety of target distributions. Our code for the sampling methods and benchmarks studied is made public at https://github.com/GFNOrg/gfn-diffusion as a base for future work on diffusion models for amortized inference.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Denoising Diffusion Models (DDMs) have become a popular tool for generating high-quality samples from complex data distributions. These models are able to capture sophisticated patterns and structures in the data, and can generate samples that are highly diverse and representative of the underlying distribution. However, one of the main limitations of diffusion models is the complexity of sample generation, since a large number of inference timesteps is required to faithfully capture the data distribution. In this paper, we present MMD-DDM, a novel method for fast sampling of diffusion models. Our approach is based on the idea of using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) to finetune the learned distribution with a given budget of timesteps. This allows the finetuned model to significantly improve the speed-quality trade-off, by substantially increasing fidelity in inference regimes with few steps or, equivalently, by reducing the required number of steps to reach a target fidelity, thus paving the way for a more practical adoption of diffusion models in a wide range of applications. We evaluate our approach on unconditional image generation with extensive experiments across the CIFAR-10, CelebA, ImageNet and LSUN-Church datasets. Our findings show that the proposed method is able to produce high-quality samples in a fraction of the time required by widely-used diffusion models, and outperforms state-of-the-art techniques for accelerated sampling. Code is available at: https://github.com/diegovalsesia/MMD-DDM.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Tiny deep learning on microcontroller units (MCUs) is challenging due to the limited memory size. We find that the memory bottleneck is due to the imbalanced memory distribution in convolutional neural network (CNN) designs: the first several blocks have an order of magnitude larger memory usage than the rest of the network. To alleviate this issue, we propose a generic patch-by-patch inference scheduling, which operates only on a small spatial region of the feature map and significantly cuts down the peak memory. However, naive implementation brings overlapping patches and computation overhead. We further propose network redistribution to shift the receptive field and FLOPs to the later stage and reduce the computation overhead. Manually redistributing the receptive field is difficult. We automate the process with neural architecture search to jointly optimize the neural architecture and inference scheduling, leading to MCUNetV2. Patch-based inference effectively reduces the peak memory usage of existing networks by 4-8x. Co-designed with neural networks, MCUNetV2 sets a record ImageNet accuracy on MCU (71.8%), and achieves >90% accuracy on the visual wake words dataset under only 32kB SRAM. MCUNetV2 also unblocks object detection on tiny devices, achieving 16.9% higher mAP on Pascal VOC compared to the state-of-the-art result. Our study largely addressed the memory bottleneck in tinyML and paved the way for various vision applications beyond image classification.

We present ITQ3_S (Interleaved Ternary Quantization -- Specialized), a novel 3-bit weight quantization format for LLMs integrating TurboQuant (TQ), a rotation-domain strategy based on the Fast Walsh-Hadamard Transform (FWHT). Conventional 3-bit methods suffer precision loss from heavy-tailed weight distributions and inter-channel outliers. ITQ3_S pre-rotates the weight space via FWHT before quantization, spreading outlier energy across the vector and inducing a near-Gaussian distribution amenable to uniform ternary coding. We derive a rigorous dequantization procedure fusing a 256-point Inverse FWHT into the CUDA shared-memory loading stage, ensuring reconstruction error is bounded exclusively by the ternary quantization grid with no additional error from the transform inversion. For any weight vector w in R^{256}, the reconstruction satisfies |mathbf{w} - w|_2 leq ε_q, strictly smaller than uniform 3-bit baselines that do not exploit rotation-induced distribution normalization. TurboQuant lacks a native CUDA kernel, precluding direct deployment; naively composing TQ with existing weight quantizers introduces domain mismatch errors that accumulate across layers, degrading quality below standard 3-bit baselines. ITQ3_S resolves this by co-designing the FWHT rotation and quantization kernel as a unified pipeline grounded in the IQ3_S weight format, with the inverse transform fused into the CUDA MMQ kernel. Empirically, on the NVIDIA RTX 5090 (Blackwell), ITQ3_S achieves perplexity competitive with FP16 while delivering throughput exceeding 1.5x that of 4-bit alternatives via optimized DP4A and Tensor Core scheduling. Our results establish ITQ3_S as a practical, mathematically grounded solution for high-fidelity LLM deployment on consumer hardware.

We present Entropy Adaptive Decoding (EAD), a novel approach for efficient language model inference that dynamically switches between different-sized models based on prediction uncertainty. By monitoring rolling entropy in model logit distributions, our method identifies text regions where a smaller model suffices and switches to a larger model only when prediction uncertainty exceeds a threshold. Unlike speculative decoding approaches that maintain perfect output fidelity through verification, EAD accepts controlled output divergence in exchange for computational efficiency. Our experiments on the MATH benchmark demonstrate remarkable efficiency gains across different model families. Using the LLaMA family, we maintain 96.7\% of the 11B model's performance (50.4\% vs 52.1\%) while using it for only 43\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 41.5\%. These gains become more pronounced with larger size differentials in the Qwen family, where we achieve 92.9\% of the 14B model's performance (74.3\% vs 80.0\%) while using it for just 25\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 67\%. The consistency of these results across model pairs suggests that language model computation can be significantly optimized by selectively deploying model capacity based on local generation complexity. Our findings indicate that current approaches to model inference may be unnecessarily conservative in their pursuit of perfect output fidelity, and that accepting minor performance trade-offs can enable dramatic reductions in computational costs.

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Recent approaches build on implicit neural representations (INRs) to propose generative models over function spaces. However, they are computationally costly when dealing with inference tasks, such as missing data imputation, or directly cannot tackle them. In this work, we propose a novel deep generative model, named VAMoH. VAMoH combines the capabilities of modeling continuous functions using INRs and the inference capabilities of Variational Autoencoders (VAEs). In addition, VAMoH relies on a normalizing flow to define the prior, and a mixture of hypernetworks to parametrize the data log-likelihood. This gives VAMoH a high expressive capability and interpretability. Through experiments on a diverse range of data types, such as images, voxels, and climate data, we show that VAMoH can effectively learn rich distributions over continuous functions. Furthermore, it can perform inference-related tasks, such as conditional super-resolution generation and in-painting, as well or better than previous approaches, while being less computationally demanding.

As deep neural networks become adopted in high-stakes domains, it is crucial to be able to identify when inference inputs are Out-of-Distribution (OOD) so that users can be alerted of likely drops in performance and calibration despite high confidence. Among many others, existing methods use the following two scores to do so without training on any apriori OOD examples: a learned temperature and an energy score. In this paper we introduce Ablated Learned Temperature Energy (or "AbeT" for short), a method which combines these prior methods in novel ways with effective modifications. Due to these contributions, AbeT lowers the False Positive Rate at 95% True Positive Rate (FPR@95) by 35.39% in classification (averaged across all ID and OOD datasets measured) compared to state of the art without training networks in multiple stages or requiring hyperparameters or test-time backward passes. We additionally provide empirical insights as to how our model learns to distinguish between In-Distribution (ID) and OOD samples while only being explicitly trained on ID samples via exposure to misclassified ID examples at training time. Lastly, we show the efficacy of our method in identifying predicted bounding boxes and pixels corresponding to OOD objects in object detection and semantic segmentation, respectively - with an AUROC increase of 5.15% in object detection and both a decrease in FPR@95 of 41.48% and an increase in AUPRC of 34.20% on average in semantic segmentation compared to previous state of the art.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.

Gene regulatory network inference (GRNI) is a challenging problem, particularly owing to the presence of zeros in single-cell RNA sequencing data: some are biological zeros representing no gene expression, while some others are technical zeros arising from the sequencing procedure (aka dropouts), which may bias GRNI by distorting the joint distribution of the measured gene expressions. Existing approaches typically handle dropout error via imputation, which may introduce spurious relations as the true joint distribution is generally unidentifiable. To tackle this issue, we introduce a causal graphical model to characterize the dropout mechanism, namely, Causal Dropout Model. We provide a simple yet effective theoretical result: interestingly, the conditional independence (CI) relations in the data with dropouts, after deleting the samples with zero values (regardless if technical or not) for the conditioned variables, are asymptotically identical to the CI relations in the original data without dropouts. This particular test-wise deletion procedure, in which we perform CI tests on the samples without zeros for the conditioned variables, can be seamlessly integrated with existing structure learning approaches including constraint-based and greedy score-based methods, thus giving rise to a principled framework for GRNI in the presence of dropouts. We further show that the causal dropout model can be validated from data, and many existing statistical models to handle dropouts fit into our model as specific parametric instances. Empirical evaluation on synthetic, curated, and real-world experimental transcriptomic data comprehensively demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) attempt to predict whether a particular datapoint is a member of a target model's training data. Despite extensive research on traditional machine learning models, there has been limited work studying MIA on the pre-training data of large language models (LLMs). We perform a large-scale evaluation of MIAs over a suite of language models (LMs) trained on the Pile, ranging from 160M to 12B parameters. We find that MIAs barely outperform random guessing for most settings across varying LLM sizes and domains. Our further analyses reveal that this poor performance can be attributed to (1) the combination of a large dataset and few training iterations, and (2) an inherently fuzzy boundary between members and non-members. We identify specific settings where LLMs have been shown to be vulnerable to membership inference and show that the apparent success in such settings can be attributed to a distribution shift, such as when members and non-members are drawn from the seemingly identical domain but with different temporal ranges. We release our code and data as a unified benchmark package that includes all existing MIAs, supporting future work.

Warning: this paper contains model outputs exhibiting offensiveness and biases. Recently pre-trained language models (PLMs) have prospered in various natural language generation (NLG) tasks due to their ability to generate fairly fluent text. Nevertheless, these models are observed to capture and reproduce harmful contents in training corpora, typically toxic language and social biases, raising severe moral issues. Prior works on ethical NLG tackle detoxifying and debiasing separately, which is problematic since we find debiased models still exhibit toxicity while detoxified ones even exacerbate biases. To address such a challenge, we propose the first unified framework of detoxifying and debiasing called UDDIA, which jointly formalizes these two problems as rectifying the output space. We theoretically interpret our framework as learning a text distribution mixing weighted attributes. Besides, UDDIA conducts adaptive optimization of only a few parameters during decoding based on a parameter-efficient tuning schema without any training data. This leads to minimal generation quality loss and improved rectification performance with acceptable computational cost. Experimental results demonstrate that compared to several strong baselines, UDDIA achieves debiasing and detoxifying simultaneously and better balances efficiency and effectiveness, taking a further step towards practical ethical NLG.

In this paper, we present InferES - an original corpus for Natural Language Inference (NLI) in European Spanish. We propose, implement, and analyze a variety of corpus-creating strategies utilizing expert linguists and crowd workers. The objectives behind InferES are to provide high-quality data, and, at the same time to facilitate the systematic evaluation of automated systems. Specifically, we focus on measuring and improving the performance of machine learning systems on negation-based adversarial examples and their ability to generalize across out-of-distribution topics. We train two transformer models on InferES (8,055 gold examples) in a variety of scenarios. Our best model obtains 72.8% accuracy, leaving a lot of room for improvement. The "hypothesis-only" baseline performs only 2%-5% higher than majority, indicating much fewer annotation artifacts than prior work. We find that models trained on InferES generalize very well across topics (both in- and out-of-distribution) and perform moderately well on negation-based adversarial examples.

Recent domain generalization (DG) approaches typically use the hypothesis learned on source domains for inference on the unseen target domain. However, such a hypothesis can be arbitrarily far from the optimal one for the target domain, induced by a gap termed ``adaptivity gap''. Without exploiting the domain information from the unseen test samples, adaptivity gap estimation and minimization are intractable, which hinders us to robustify a model to any unknown distribution. In this paper, we first establish a generalization bound that explicitly considers the adaptivity gap. Our bound motivates two strategies to reduce the gap: the first one is ensembling multiple classifiers to enrich the hypothesis space, then we propose effective gap estimation methods for guiding the selection of a better hypothesis for the target. The other method is minimizing the gap directly by adapting model parameters using online target samples. We thus propose Domain-specific Risk Minimization (DRM). During training, DRM models the distributions of different source domains separately; for inference, DRM performs online model steering using the source hypothesis for each arriving target sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed DRM for domain generalization with the following advantages: 1) it significantly outperforms competitive baselines on different distributional shift settings; 2) it achieves either comparable or superior accuracies on all source domains compared to vanilla empirical risk minimization; 3) it remains simple and efficient during training, and 4) it is complementary to invariant learning approaches.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

With increasingly more data and computation involved in their training, machine learning models constitute valuable intellectual property. This has spurred interest in model stealing, which is made more practical by advances in learning with partial, little, or no supervision. Existing defenses focus on inserting unique watermarks in a model's decision surface, but this is insufficient: the watermarks are not sampled from the training distribution and thus are not always preserved during model stealing. In this paper, we make the key observation that knowledge contained in the stolen model's training set is what is common to all stolen copies. The adversary's goal, irrespective of the attack employed, is always to extract this knowledge or its by-products. This gives the original model's owner a strong advantage over the adversary: model owners have access to the original training data. We thus introduce dataset inference, the process of identifying whether a suspected model copy has private knowledge from the original model's dataset, as a defense against model stealing. We develop an approach for dataset inference that combines statistical testing with the ability to estimate the distance of multiple data points to the decision boundary. Our experiments on CIFAR10, SVHN, CIFAR100 and ImageNet show that model owners can claim with confidence greater than 99% that their model (or dataset as a matter of fact) was stolen, despite only exposing 50 of the stolen model's training points. Dataset inference defends against state-of-the-art attacks even when the adversary is adaptive. Unlike prior work, it does not require retraining or overfitting the defended model.