Daily Papers

Long non-coding RNA, microRNA, and messenger RNA enable key regulations of various biological processes through a variety of diverse interaction mechanisms. Identifying the interactions and cross-talk between these heterogeneous RNA classes is essential in order to uncover the functional role of individual RNA transcripts, especially for unannotated and newly-discovered RNA sequences with no known interactions. Recently, sequence-based deep learning and network embedding methods are becoming promising approaches that can either predict RNA-RNA interactions from a sequence or infer missing interactions from patterns that may exist in the network topology. However, the majority of these methods have several limitations, eg, the inability to perform inductive predictions, to distinguish the directionality of interactions, or to integrate various sequence, interaction, and annotation biological datasets. We proposed a novel deep learning-based framework, rna2rna, which learns from RNA sequences to produce a low-dimensional embedding that preserves the proximities in both the interactions topology and the functional affinity topology. In this proposed embedding space, we have designated a two-part" source and target contexts" to capture the targeting and receptive fields of each RNA transcript, while encapsulating the heterogenous cross-talk interactions between lncRNAs and miRNAs. From experimental results, our method exhibits superior performance in AUPR rates compared to state-of-art approaches at predicting missing interactions in different RNA-RNA interaction databases and was shown to accurately perform link predictions to novel RNA sequences not seen at training time, even without any prior information. Additional results suggest that our proposed framework can capture a manifold for heterogeneous RNA sequences to discover novel functional annotations.

This work investigates a simple yet powerful dense prediction task adapter for Vision Transformer (ViT). Unlike recently advanced variants that incorporate vision-specific inductive biases into their architectures, the plain ViT suffers inferior performance on dense predictions due to weak prior assumptions. To address this issue, we propose the ViT-Adapter, which allows plain ViT to achieve comparable performance to vision-specific transformers. Specifically, the backbone in our framework is a plain ViT that can learn powerful representations from large-scale multi-modal data. When transferring to downstream tasks, a pre-training-free adapter is used to introduce the image-related inductive biases into the model, making it suitable for these tasks. We verify ViT-Adapter on multiple dense prediction tasks, including object detection, instance segmentation, and semantic segmentation. Notably, without using extra detection data, our ViT-Adapter-L yields state-of-the-art 60.9 box AP and 53.0 mask AP on COCO test-dev. We hope that the ViT-Adapter could serve as an alternative for vision-specific transformers and facilitate future research. The code and models will be released at https://github.com/czczup/ViT-Adapter.

Despite the growing demand for accurate surface normal estimation models, existing methods use general-purpose dense prediction models, adopting the same inductive biases as other tasks. In this paper, we discuss the inductive biases needed for surface normal estimation and propose to (1) utilize the per-pixel ray direction and (2) encode the relationship between neighboring surface normals by learning their relative rotation. The proposed method can generate crisp - yet, piecewise smooth - predictions for challenging in-the-wild images of arbitrary resolution and aspect ratio. Compared to a recent ViT-based state-of-the-art model, our method shows a stronger generalization ability, despite being trained on an orders of magnitude smaller dataset. The code is available at https://github.com/baegwangbin/DSINE.

Foundation models are premised on the idea that sequence prediction can uncover deeper domain understanding, much like how Kepler's predictions of planetary motion later led to the discovery of Newtonian mechanics. However, evaluating whether these models truly capture deeper structure remains a challenge. We develop a technique for evaluating foundation models that examines how they adapt to synthetic datasets generated from some postulated world model. Our technique measures whether the foundation model's inductive bias aligns with the world model, and so we refer to it as an inductive bias probe. Across multiple domains, we find that foundation models can excel at their training tasks yet fail to develop inductive biases towards the underlying world model when adapted to new tasks. We particularly find that foundation models trained on orbital trajectories consistently fail to apply Newtonian mechanics when adapted to new physics tasks. Further analysis reveals that these models behave as if they develop task-specific heuristics that fail to generalize.

Transformers, currently the state-of-the-art in natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, are prone to generate uncalibrated predictions or extreme probabilities, making the process of taking different decisions based on their output relatively difficult. In this paper we propose to build several inductive Venn--ABERS predictors (IVAP), which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under minimal assumptions, based on a selection of pre-trained transformers. We test their performance over a set of diverse NLU tasks and show that they are capable of producing well-calibrated probabilistic predictions that are uniformly spread over the [0,1] interval -- all while retaining the original model's predictive accuracy.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

In this paper, we propose a dual-stage architecture for bandwidth extension (BWE) increasing the effective sampling rate of speech signals from 8 kHz to 48 kHz. Unlike existing end-to-end deep learning models, our proposed method explicitly models BWE using excitation and linear time-varying (LTV) filter stages. The excitation stage broadens the spectrum of the input, while the filtering stage properly shapes it based on outputs from an acoustic feature predictor. To this end, an acoustic feature loss term can implicitly promote the excitation subnetwork to produce white spectra in the upper frequency band to be synthesized. Experimental results demonstrate that the added inductive bias provided by our approach can improve upon BWE results using the generators from both SEANet or HiFi-GAN as exciters, and that our means of adapting processing with acoustic feature predictions is more effective than that used in HiFi-GAN-2. Secondary contributions include extensions of the SEANet model to accommodate local conditioning information, as well as the application of HiFi-GAN-2 for the BWE problem.

We present PharmaShip, a real-world Chinese dataset of scanned pharmaceutical shipping documents designed to stress-test pre-trained text-layout models under noisy OCR and heterogeneous templates. PharmaShip covers three complementary tasks-sequence entity recognition (SER), relation extraction (RE), and reading order prediction (ROP)-and adopts an entity-centric evaluation protocol to minimize confounds across architectures. We benchmark five representative baselines spanning pixel-aware and geometry-aware families (LiLT, LayoutLMv3-base, GeoLayoutLM and their available RORE-enhanced variants), and standardize preprocessing, splits, and optimization. Experiments show that pixels and explicit geometry provide complementary inductive biases, yet neither alone is sufficient: injecting reading-order-oriented regularization consistently improves SER and EL and yields the most robust configuration, while longer positional coverage stabilizes late-page predictions and reduces truncation artifacts. ROP is accurate at the word level but challenging at the segment level, reflecting boundary ambiguity and long-range crossings. PharmaShip thus establishes a controlled, reproducible benchmark for safety-critical document understanding in the pharmaceutical domain and highlights sequence-aware constraints as a transferable bias for structure modeling. We release the dataset at https://github.com/KevinYuLei/PharmaShip.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models built upon Chain-of-Thought (CoT) have achieved remarkable success in advancing general-purpose robotic agents, owing to its significant perceptual comprehension. Recently, since text-only CoT struggles to adequately capture scene details in complex spatial environments, a highly promising strategy involves leveraging visual priors to guide robotic action generation. Nevertheless, these strategies face two inherent challenges: (i) a modality gap between visual observations and low-level actions, and (ii) unstable training due to competing objectives between visual prediction and action generation. To address these challenges, we propose a Vision-Integrated Trajectory Alignment (VITA) framework that learns a shared discrete latent space for vision and action, enabling joint modeling of perception and motor control. VITA introduces a implicit visual CoT: autoregressively generated tokens is simultaneously decoded into future frames predictions and robot actions, thereby internalizing visual dynamics as an inductive bias for motion planning. Extensive experiments on simulated and real-world environments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. VITA improves 14.5\%, 9.6\% and 12.1\% over existing baselines on CALVIN, LIBERO and SimplerEnv. Furthermore, VITA attains an average success rate of 80.5\% across six real-world tasks, demonstrating its potential as a generalist robotic manipulation model.

Learning robust and generalizable world models is crucial for enabling efficient and scalable robotic control in real-world environments. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for learning world models that accurately capture complex, partially observable, and stochastic dynamics. The proposed method employs a dual-autoregressive mechanism and self-supervised training to achieve reliable long-horizon predictions without relying on domain-specific inductive biases, ensuring adaptability across diverse robotic tasks. We further propose a policy optimization framework that leverages world models for efficient training in imagined environments and seamless deployment in real-world systems. This work advances model-based reinforcement learning by addressing the challenges of long-horizon prediction, error accumulation, and sim-to-real transfer. By providing a scalable and robust framework, the introduced methods pave the way for adaptive and efficient robotic systems in real-world applications.

The last few years have seen the development of numerous deep learning-based protein-ligand docking methods. They offer huge promise in terms of speed and accuracy. However, despite claims of state-of-the-art performance in terms of crystallographic root-mean-square deviation (RMSD), upon closer inspection, it has become apparent that they often produce physically implausible molecular structures. It is therefore not sufficient to evaluate these methods solely by RMSD to a native binding mode. It is vital, particularly for deep learning-based methods, that they are also evaluated on steric and energetic criteria. We present PoseBusters, a Python package that performs a series of standard quality checks using the well-established cheminformatics toolkit RDKit. Only methods that both pass these checks and predict native-like binding modes should be classed as having "state-of-the-art" performance. We use PoseBusters to compare five deep learning-based docking methods (DeepDock, DiffDock, EquiBind, TankBind, and Uni-Mol) and two well-established standard docking methods (AutoDock Vina and CCDC Gold) with and without an additional post-prediction energy minimisation step using a molecular mechanics force field. We show that both in terms of physical plausibility and the ability to generalise to examples that are distinct from the training data, no deep learning-based method yet outperforms classical docking tools. In addition, we find that molecular mechanics force fields contain docking-relevant physics missing from deep-learning methods. PoseBusters allows practitioners to assess docking and molecular generation methods and may inspire new inductive biases still required to improve deep learning-based methods, which will help drive the development of more accurate and more realistic predictions.

End-to-end driving systems have recently made rapid progress, in particular on CARLA. Independent of their major contribution, they introduce changes to minor system components. Consequently, the source of improvements is unclear. We identify two biases that recur in nearly all state-of-the-art methods and are critical for the observed progress on CARLA: (1) lateral recovery via a strong inductive bias towards target point following, and (2) longitudinal averaging of multimodal waypoint predictions for slowing down. We investigate the drawbacks of these biases and identify principled alternatives. By incorporating our insights, we develop TF++, a simple end-to-end method that ranks first on the Longest6 and LAV benchmarks, gaining 14 driving score over the best prior work on Longest6.

Despite the increasing availability of high-performance computational resources, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations remain the workhorse for the analysis of turbulent flows in real-world applications. Linear eddy viscosity models (LEVM), the most commonly employed model type, cannot accurately predict complex states of turbulence. This work combines a deep-neural-network-based, nonlinear eddy viscosity model with turbulence realizability constraints as an inductive bias in order to yield improved predictions of the anisotropy tensor. Using visualizations based on the barycentric map, we show that the proposed machine learning method's anisotropy tensor predictions offer a significant improvement over all LEVMs in traditionally challenging cases with surface curvature and flow separation. However, this improved anisotropy tensor does not, in general, yield improved mean-velocity and pressure field predictions in comparison with the best-performing LEVM.

Knowledge Graphs (KG) are of vital importance for multiple applications on the web, including information retrieval, recommender systems, and metadata annotation. Regardless of whether they are built manually by domain experts or with automatic pipelines, KGs are often incomplete. Recent work has begun to explore the use of textual descriptions available in knowledge graphs to learn vector representations of entities in order to preform link prediction. However, the extent to which these representations learned for link prediction generalize to other tasks is unclear. This is important given the cost of learning such representations. Ideally, we would prefer representations that do not need to be trained again when transferring to a different task, while retaining reasonable performance. In this work, we propose a holistic evaluation protocol for entity representations learned via a link prediction objective. We consider the inductive link prediction and entity classification tasks, which involve entities not seen during training. We also consider an information retrieval task for entity-oriented search. We evaluate an architecture based on a pretrained language model, that exhibits strong generalization to entities not observed during training, and outperforms related state-of-the-art methods (22% MRR improvement in link prediction on average). We further provide evidence that the learned representations transfer well to other tasks without fine-tuning. In the entity classification task we obtain an average improvement of 16% in accuracy compared with baselines that also employ pre-trained models. In the information retrieval task, we obtain significant improvements of up to 8.8% in NDCG@10 for natural language queries. We thus show that the learned representations are not limited KG-specific tasks, and have greater generalization properties than evaluated in previous work.

Drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction is crucial for identifying new therapeutics and detecting mechanisms of action. While structure-based methods accurately model physical interactions between a drug and its protein target, cell-based assays such as Cell Painting can better capture complex DTI interactions. This paper introduces MOTIVE, a Morphological cOmpound Target Interaction Graph dataset that comprises Cell Painting features for 11,000 genes and 3,600 compounds along with their relationships extracted from seven publicly available databases. We provide random, cold-source (new drugs), and cold-target (new genes) data splits to enable rigorous evaluation under realistic use cases. Our benchmark results show that graph neural networks that use Cell Painting features consistently outperform those that learn from graph structure alone, feature-based models, and topological heuristics. MOTIVE accelerates both graph ML research and drug discovery by promoting the development of more reliable DTI prediction models. MOTIVE resources are available at https://github.com/carpenter-singh-lab/motive.

We present the Power Law Graph Transformer, a transformer model with well defined deductive and inductive tasks for prediction and representation learning. The deductive task learns the dataset level (global) and instance level (local) graph structures in terms of learnable power law distribution parameters. The inductive task outputs the prediction probabilities using the deductive task output, similar to a transductive model. We trained our model with Turkish-English and Portuguese-English datasets from TED talk transcripts for machine translation and compared the model performance and characteristics to a transformer model with scaled dot product attention trained on the same experimental setup. We report BLEU scores of 17.79 and 28.33 on the Turkish-English and Portuguese-English translation tasks with our model, respectively. We also show how a duality between a quantization set and N-dimensional manifold representation can be leveraged to transform between local and global deductive-inductive outputs using successive application of linear and non-linear transformations end-to-end.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable improvements in reasoning and many existing benchmarks have been addressed by models such as o1 and o3 either fully or partially. However, a majority of these benchmarks emphasize deductive reasoning, including mathematical and coding tasks in which rules such as mathematical axioms or programming syntax are clearly defined, based on which LLMs can plan and apply these rules to arrive at a solution. In contrast, inductive reasoning, where one infers the underlying rules from observed data, remains less explored. Such inductive processes lie at the heart of scientific discovery, as they enable researchers to extract general principles from empirical observations. To assess whether LLMs possess this capacity, we introduce InductionBench, a new benchmark designed to evaluate the inductive reasoning ability of LLMs. Our experimental findings reveal that even the most advanced models available struggle to master the simplest complexity classes within the subregular hierarchy of functions, highlighting a notable deficiency in current LLMs' inductive reasoning capabilities. Coda and data are available https://github.com/Wenyueh/inductive_reasoning_benchmark.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

Inductive reasoning is a core problem-solving capacity: humans can identify underlying principles from a few examples, which can then be robustly generalized to novel scenarios. Recent work has evaluated large language models (LLMs) on inductive reasoning tasks by directly prompting them yielding "in context learning." This can work well for straightforward inductive tasks, but performs very poorly on more complex tasks such as the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC). In this work, we propose to improve the inductive reasoning ability of LLMs by generating explicit hypotheses at multiple levels of abstraction: we prompt the LLM to propose multiple abstract hypotheses about the problem, in natural language, then implement the natural language hypotheses as concrete Python programs. These programs can be directly verified by running on the observed examples and generalized to novel inputs. Because of the prohibitive cost of generation with state-of-the-art LLMs, we consider a middle step to filter the set of hypotheses that will be implemented into programs: we either ask the LLM to summarize into a smaller set of hypotheses, or ask human annotators to select a subset of the hypotheses. We verify our pipeline's effectiveness on the ARC visual inductive reasoning benchmark, its variant 1D-ARC, and string transformation dataset SyGuS. On a random 40-problem subset of ARC, our automated pipeline using LLM summaries achieves 27.5% accuracy, significantly outperforming the direct prompting baseline (accuracy of 12.5%). With the minimal human input of selecting from LLM-generated candidates, the performance is boosted to 37.5%. (And we argue this is a lower bound on the performance of our approach without filtering.) Our ablation studies show that abstract hypothesis generation and concrete program representations are both beneficial for LLMs to perform inductive reasoning tasks.

Inductive reasoning is a core component of human intelligence. In the past research of inductive reasoning within computer science, formal language is used as representations of knowledge (facts and rules, more specifically). However, formal language can cause systematic problems for inductive reasoning such as disability of handling raw input such as natural language, sensitiveness to mislabeled data, and incapacity to handle ambiguous input. To this end, we propose a new paradigm (task) for inductive reasoning, which is to induce natural language rules from natural language facts, and create a dataset termed DEER containing 1.2k rule-fact pairs for the task, where rules and facts are written in natural language. New automatic metrics are also proposed and analysed for the evaluation of this task. With DEER, we investigate a modern approach for inductive reasoning where we use natural language as representation for knowledge instead of formal language and use pretrained language models as ''reasoners''. Moreover, we provide the first and comprehensive analysis of how well pretrained language models can induce natural language rules from natural language facts. We also propose a new framework drawing insights from philosophy literature for this task, which we show in the experiment section that surpasses baselines in both automatic and human evaluations. We discuss about our future perspectives for inductive reasoning in Section 7. Dataset and code are available at https://github.com/ZonglinY/Inductive_Reasoning.

Inductive Reasoning (IR), the ability to summarize rules from examples and apply on new ones, has long been viewed as a primal ability for general intelligence and widely studied by cognitive science and AI researchers. Many benchmarks have been proposed to measure such ability for Large Language Models (LLMs); however, they focus on few-shot (usually <10) setting and lack evaluation for aggregating many pieces of information from long contexts. On the other hand, the ever-growing context length of LLMs have brought forth the novel paradigm of many-shot In-Context Learning (ICL), which addresses new tasks with hundreds to thousands of examples without expensive and inefficient fine-tuning. However, many-shot evaluations are mostly focused on classification (a very limited aspect of IR), and popular long-context LLM tasks such as Needle-In-A-Haystack (NIAH) seldom require complicated intelligence for integrating many pieces of information. To fix the issues from both worlds, we propose MIR-Bench, the first many-shot in-context inductive reasoning benchmark that asks LLM to induce output via input-output examples from underlying functions with diverse data format. Based on MIR-Bench, we study many novel problems for inductive reasoning and many-shot ICL, including robustness against erroneous shots and the effect of Chain-of-Thought (CoT), and acquired insightful findings.

Strong inductive biases enable learning from little data and help generalization outside of the training distribution. Popular neural architectures such as Transformers lack strong structural inductive biases for seq2seq NLP tasks on their own. Consequently, they struggle with systematic generalization beyond the training distribution, e.g. with extrapolating to longer inputs, even when pre-trained on large amounts of text. We show how a structural inductive bias can be efficiently injected into a seq2seq model by pre-training it to simulate structural transformations on synthetic data. Specifically, we inject an inductive bias towards Finite State Transducers (FSTs) into a Transformer by pre-training it to simulate FSTs given their descriptions. Our experiments show that our method imparts the desired inductive bias, resulting in improved systematic generalization and better few-shot learning for FST-like tasks. Our analysis shows that fine-tuned models accurately capture the state dynamics of the unseen underlying FSTs, suggesting that the simulation process is internalized by the fine-tuned model.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown promising performance for knowledge graph reasoning. A recent variant of GNN called progressive relational graph neural network (PRGNN), utilizes relational rules to infer missing knowledge in relational digraphs and achieves notable results. However, during reasoning with PRGNN, two important properties are often overlooked: (1) the sequentiality of relation composition, where the order of combining different relations affects the semantics of the relational rules, and (2) the lagged entity information propagation, where the transmission speed of required information lags behind the appearance speed of new entities. Ignoring these properties leads to incorrect relational rule learning and decreased reasoning accuracy. To address these issues, we propose a novel knowledge graph reasoning approach, the Relational rUle eNhanced Graph Neural Network (RUN-GNN). Specifically, RUN-GNN employs a query related fusion gate unit to model the sequentiality of relation composition and utilizes a buffering update mechanism to alleviate the negative effect of lagged entity information propagation, resulting in higher-quality relational rule learning. Experimental results on multiple datasets demonstrate the superiority of RUN-GNN is superior on both transductive and inductive link prediction tasks.

The ability to derive underlying principles from a handful of observations and then generalize to novel situations -- known as inductive reasoning -- is central to human intelligence. Prior work suggests that language models (LMs) often fall short on inductive reasoning, despite achieving impressive success on research benchmarks. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of the inductive reasoning capabilities of LMs through iterative hypothesis refinement, a technique that more closely mirrors the human inductive process than standard input-output prompting. Iterative hypothesis refinement employs a three-step process: proposing, selecting, and refining hypotheses in the form of textual rules. By examining the intermediate rules, we observe that LMs are phenomenal hypothesis proposers (i.e., generating candidate rules), and when coupled with a (task-specific) symbolic interpreter that is able to systematically filter the proposed set of rules, this hybrid approach achieves strong results across inductive reasoning benchmarks that require inducing causal relations, language-like instructions, and symbolic concepts. However, they also behave as puzzling inductive reasoners, showing notable performance gaps between rule induction (i.e., identifying plausible rules) and rule application (i.e., applying proposed rules to instances), suggesting that LMs are proposing hypotheses without being able to actually apply the rules. Through empirical and human analyses, we further reveal several discrepancies between the inductive reasoning processes of LMs and humans, shedding light on both the potentials and limitations of using LMs in inductive reasoning tasks.

Most knowledge graph completion (KGC) methods learn latent representations of entities and relations of a given graph by mapping them into a vector space. Although the majority of these methods focus on static knowledge graphs, a large number of publicly available KGs contain temporal information stating the time instant/period over which a certain fact has been true. Such graphs are often known as temporal knowledge graphs. Furthermore, knowledge graphs may also contain textual descriptions of entities and relations. Both temporal information and textual descriptions are not taken into account during representation learning by static KGC methods, and only structural information of the graph is leveraged. Recently, some studies have used temporal information to improve link prediction, yet they do not exploit textual descriptions and do not support inductive inference (prediction on entities that have not been seen in training). We propose a novel framework called TEMT that exploits the power of pre-trained language models (PLMs) for text-enhanced temporal knowledge graph completion. The knowledge stored in the parameters of a PLM allows TEMT to produce rich semantic representations of facts and to generalize on previously unseen entities. TEMT leverages textual and temporal information available in a KG, treats them separately, and fuses them to get plausibility scores of facts. Unlike previous approaches, TEMT effectively captures dependencies across different time points and enables predictions on unseen entities. To assess the performance of TEMT, we carried out several experiments including time interval prediction, both in transductive and inductive settings, and triple classification. The experimental results show that TEMT is competitive with the state-of-the-art.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

This paper aims to understand how neural networks learn algorithmic reasoning by addressing two questions: How faithful are learned algorithms when they are effective, and why do neural networks fail to learn effective algorithms otherwise? To answer these questions, we use neural compilation, a technique that directly encodes a source algorithm into neural network parameters, enabling the network to compute the algorithm exactly. This enables comparison between compiled and conventionally learned parameters, intermediate vectors, and behaviors. This investigation is crucial for developing neural networks that robustly learn complexalgorithms from data. Our analysis focuses on graph neural networks (GNNs), which are naturally aligned with algorithmic reasoning tasks, specifically our choices of BFS, DFS, and Bellman-Ford, which cover the spectrum of effective, faithful, and ineffective learned algorithms. Commonly, learning algorithmic reasoning is framed as induction over synthetic data, where a parameterized model is trained on inputs, traces, and outputs produced by an underlying ground truth algorithm. In contrast, we introduce a neural compilation method for GNNs, which sets network parameters analytically, bypassing training. Focusing on GNNs leverages their alignment with algorithmic reasoning, extensive algorithmic induction literature, and the novel application of neural compilation to GNNs. Overall, this paper aims to characterize expressability-trainability gaps - a fundamental shortcoming in learning algorithmic reasoning. We hypothesize that inductive learning is most effective for parallel algorithms contained within the computational class NC.

There has been a lot of recent interest in adopting machine learning methods for scientific and engineering applications. This has in large part been inspired by recent successes and advances in the domains of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Image Classification (IC). However, scientific and engineering problems have their own unique characteristics and requirements raising new challenges for effective design and deployment of machine learning approaches. There is a strong need for further mathematical developments on the foundations of machine learning methods to increase the level of rigor of employed methods and to ensure more reliable and interpretable results. Also as reported in the recent literature on state-of-the-art results and indicated by the No Free Lunch Theorems of statistical learning theory incorporating some form of inductive bias and domain knowledge is essential to success. Consequently, even for existing and widely used methods there is a strong need for further mathematical work to facilitate ways to incorporate prior scientific knowledge and related inductive biases into learning frameworks and algorithms. We briefly discuss these topics and discuss some ideas proceeding in this direction.

We investigate the emergence of intuitive physics understanding in general-purpose deep neural network models trained to predict masked regions in natural videos. Leveraging the violation-of-expectation framework, we find that video prediction models trained to predict outcomes in a learned representation space demonstrate an understanding of various intuitive physics properties, such as object permanence and shape consistency. In contrast, video prediction in pixel space and multimodal large language models, which reason through text, achieve performance closer to chance. Our comparisons of these architectures reveal that jointly learning an abstract representation space while predicting missing parts of sensory input, akin to predictive coding, is sufficient to acquire an understanding of intuitive physics, and that even models trained on one week of unique video achieve above chance performance. This challenges the idea that core knowledge -- a set of innate systems to help understand the world -- needs to be hardwired to develop an understanding of intuitive physics.

Foundation models in language and vision have the ability to run inference on any textual and visual inputs thanks to the transferable representations such as a vocabulary of tokens in language. Knowledge graphs (KGs) have different entity and relation vocabularies that generally do not overlap. The key challenge of designing foundation models on KGs is to learn such transferable representations that enable inference on any graph with arbitrary entity and relation vocabularies. In this work, we make a step towards such foundation models and present ULTRA, an approach for learning universal and transferable graph representations. ULTRA builds relational representations as a function conditioned on their interactions. Such a conditioning strategy allows a pre-trained ULTRA model to inductively generalize to any unseen KG with any relation vocabulary and to be fine-tuned on any graph. Conducting link prediction experiments on 57 different KGs, we find that the zero-shot inductive inference performance of a single pre-trained ULTRA model on unseen graphs of various sizes is often on par or better than strong baselines trained on specific graphs. Fine-tuning further boosts the performance.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

E-commerce platforms should provide detailed product descriptions (attribute values) for effective product search and recommendation. However, attribute value information is typically not available for new products. To predict unseen attribute values, large quantities of labeled training data are needed to train a traditional supervised learning model. Typically, it is difficult, time-consuming, and costly to manually label large quantities of new product profiles. In this paper, we propose a novel method to efficiently and effectively extract unseen attribute values from new products in the absence of labeled data (zero-shot setting). We propose HyperPAVE, a multi-label zero-shot attribute value extraction model that leverages inductive inference in heterogeneous hypergraphs. In particular, our proposed technique constructs heterogeneous hypergraphs to capture complex higher-order relations (i.e. user behavior information) to learn more accurate feature representations for graph nodes. Furthermore, our proposed HyperPAVE model uses an inductive link prediction mechanism to infer future connections between unseen nodes. This enables HyperPAVE to identify new attribute values without the need for labeled training data. We conduct extensive experiments with ablation studies on different categories of the MAVE dataset. The results demonstrate that our proposed HyperPAVE model significantly outperforms existing classification-based, generation-based large language models for attribute value extraction in the zero-shot setting.

Knowledge Graph Foundation Models (KGFMs) have shown promise in enabling zero-shot reasoning over unseen graphs by learning transferable patterns. However, most existing KGFMs rely solely on graph structure, overlooking the rich semantic signals encoded in textual attributes. We introduce SEMMA, a dual-module KGFM that systematically integrates transferable textual semantics alongside structure. SEMMA leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to enrich relation identifiers, generating semantic embeddings that subsequently form a textual relation graph, which is fused with the structural component. Across 54 diverse KGs, SEMMA outperforms purely structural baselines like ULTRA in fully inductive link prediction. Crucially, we show that in more challenging generalization settings, where the test-time relation vocabulary is entirely unseen, structural methods collapse while SEMMA is 2x more effective. Our findings demonstrate that textual semantics are critical for generalization in settings where structure alone fails, highlighting the need for foundation models that unify structural and linguistic signals in knowledge reasoning.

The two-stage object pose estimation paradigm first detects semantic keypoints on the image and then estimates the 6D pose by minimizing reprojection errors. Despite performing well on standard benchmarks, existing techniques offer no provable guarantees on the quality and uncertainty of the estimation. In this paper, we inject two fundamental changes, namely conformal keypoint detection and geometric uncertainty propagation, into the two-stage paradigm and propose the first pose estimator that endows an estimation with provable and computable worst-case error bounds. On one hand, conformal keypoint detection applies the statistical machinery of inductive conformal prediction to convert heuristic keypoint detections into circular or elliptical prediction sets that cover the groundtruth keypoints with a user-specified marginal probability (e.g., 90%). Geometric uncertainty propagation, on the other, propagates the geometric constraints on the keypoints to the 6D object pose, leading to a Pose UnceRtainty SEt (PURSE) that guarantees coverage of the groundtruth pose with the same probability. The PURSE, however, is a nonconvex set that does not directly lead to estimated poses and uncertainties. Therefore, we develop RANdom SAmple averaGing (RANSAG) to compute an average pose and apply semidefinite relaxation to upper bound the worst-case errors between the average pose and the groundtruth. On the LineMOD Occlusion dataset we demonstrate: (i) the PURSE covers the groundtruth with valid probabilities; (ii) the worst-case error bounds provide correct uncertainty quantification; and (iii) the average pose achieves better or similar accuracy as representative methods based on sparse keypoints.

Temporal networks have been widely used to model real-world complex systems such as financial systems and e-commerce systems. In a temporal network, the joint neighborhood of a set of nodes often provides crucial structural information useful for predicting whether they may interact at a certain time. However, recent representation learning methods for temporal networks often fail to extract such information or depend on online construction of structural features, which is time-consuming. To address the issue, this work proposes Neighborhood-Aware Temporal network model (NAT). For each node in the network, NAT abandons the commonly-used one-single-vector-based representation while adopting a novel dictionary-type neighborhood representation. Such a dictionary representation records a downsampled set of the neighboring nodes as keys, and allows fast construction of structural features for a joint neighborhood of multiple nodes. We also design a dedicated data structure termed N-cache to support parallel access and update of those dictionary representations on GPUs. NAT gets evaluated over seven real-world large-scale temporal networks. NAT not only outperforms all cutting-edge baselines by averaged 1.2% and 4.2% in transductive and inductive link prediction accuracy, respectively, but also keeps scalable by achieving a speed-up of 4.1-76.7x against the baselines that adopt joint structural features and achieves a speed-up of 1.6-4.0x against the baselines that cannot adopt those features. The link to the code: https: //github.com/Graph-COM/Neighborhood-Aware-Temporal-Network.

Large Language Models(LLMs) have been attracting attention due to a ability called in-context learning(ICL). ICL, without updating the parameters of a LLM, it is possible to achieve highly accurate inference based on rules ``in the context'' by merely inputting a training data into the prompt. Although ICL is a developing field with many unanswered questions, LLMs themselves serves as a inference model, seemingly realizing inference without explicitly indicate ``inductive bias''. On the other hand, a code generation is also a highlighted application of LLMs. The accuracy of code generation has dramatically improved, enabling even non-engineers to generate code to perform the desired tasks by crafting appropriate prompts. In this paper, we propose a novel ``learning'' method called an ``Inductive-Bias Learning (IBL)'', which combines the techniques of ICL and code generation. An idea of IBL is straightforward. Like ICL, IBL inputs a training data into the prompt and outputs a code with a necessary structure for inference (we referred to as ``Code Model'') from a ``contextual understanding''. Despite being a seemingly simple approach, IBL encompasses both a ``property of inference without explicit inductive bias'' inherent in ICL and a ``readability and explainability'' of the code generation. Surprisingly, generated Code Models have been found to achieve predictive accuracy comparable to, and in some cases surpassing, ICL and representative machine learning models. Our IBL code is open source: https://github.com/fuyu-quant/IBLM

Formulating and answering logical queries is a standard communication interface for knowledge graphs (KGs). Alleviating the notorious incompleteness of real-world KGs, neural methods achieved impressive results in link prediction and complex query answering tasks by learning representations of entities, relations, and queries. Still, most existing query answering methods rely on transductive entity embeddings and cannot generalize to KGs containing new entities without retraining the entity embeddings. In this work, we study the inductive query answering task where inference is performed on a graph containing new entities with queries over both seen and unseen entities. To this end, we devise two mechanisms leveraging inductive node and relational structure representations powered by graph neural networks (GNNs). Experimentally, we show that inductive models are able to perform logical reasoning at inference time over unseen nodes generalizing to graphs up to 500% larger than training ones. Exploring the efficiency--effectiveness trade-off, we find the inductive relational structure representation method generally achieves higher performance, while the inductive node representation method is able to answer complex queries in the inference-only regime without any training on queries and scales to graphs of millions of nodes. Code is available at https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/InductiveQE.

Complex reasoning is an impressive ability shown by large language models (LLMs). Most LLMs are skilled in deductive reasoning, such as chain-of-thought prompting or iterative tool-using to solve challenging tasks step-by-step. In this paper, we hope to focus on evaluating and teaching LLMs to conduct inductive reasoning, that is, LLMs are supposed to infer underlying rules by observing examples or sequential transformations. However, collecting large-scale and diverse human-generated inductive data is challenging. We focus on data synthesis in the code domain and propose a Case2Code task by exploiting the expressiveness and correctness of programs. Specifically, we collect a diverse set of executable programs, synthesize input-output transformations for each program, and force LLMs to infer the underlying code implementations based on the synthetic I/O cases. We first evaluate representative LLMs on the synthesized Case2Code task and demonstrate that the Case-to-code induction is challenging for LLMs. Then, we synthesize large-scale Case2Code training samples to train LLMs to perform inductive reasoning. Experimental results show that such induction training benefits not only in distribution Case2Code performance but also enhances various coding abilities of trained LLMs, demonstrating the great potential of learning inductive reasoning via synthetic data.

In-context learning is one of the surprising and useful features of large language models. How it works is an active area of research. Recently, stylized meta-learning-like setups have been devised that train these models on a sequence of input-output pairs (x, f(x)) from a function class using the language modeling loss and observe generalization to unseen functions from the same class. One of the main discoveries in this line of research has been that for several problems such as linear regression, trained transformers learn algorithms for learning functions in context. However, the inductive biases of these models resulting in this behavior are not clearly understood. A model with unlimited training data and compute is a Bayesian predictor: it learns the pretraining distribution. It has been shown that high-capacity transformers mimic the Bayesian predictor for linear regression. In this paper, we show empirical evidence of transformers exhibiting the behavior of this ideal learner across different linear and non-linear function classes. We also extend the previous setups to work in the multitask setting and verify that transformers can do in-context learning in this setup as well and the Bayesian perspective sheds light on this setting also. Finally, via the example of learning Fourier series, we study the inductive bias for in-context learning. We find that in-context learning may or may not have simplicity bias depending on the pretraining data distribution.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this "neural circuit" has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods for inference in these models while being faster and simpler to use than methods that explicitly incorporate Bayesian nonparametric inference.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant success in complex reasoning tasks such as math and coding. In contrast to these tasks where deductive reasoning predominates, inductive reasoning-the ability to derive general rules from incomplete evidence, remains underexplored. This paper investigates extended inductive reasoning in LLMs through the lens of personalized preference inference, a critical challenge in LLM alignment where current approaches struggle to capture diverse user preferences. The task demands strong inductive reasoning capabilities as user preferences are typically embedded implicitly across various interaction forms, requiring models to synthesize consistent preference patterns from scattered signals. We propose AlignXplore, a model that leverages extended reasoning chains to enable systematic preference inference from behavioral signals in users' interaction histories. Such explicit preference articulation enables efficient streaming inference: when new behavioral signals emerge, the model can directly build upon previously inferred preference descriptions rather than reprocessing historical signals from scratch, while also supporting iterative refinement to the inferred preferences. We develop AlignXplore by combining cold-start training based on synthetic data with subsequent online reinforcement learning. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that AlignXplore achieves substantial improvements over the backbone model by an average of 15.49\% on in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks, while maintaining strong generalization ability across different input formats and downstream models. Further analyses establish best practices for preference inference learning through systematic comparison of reward modeling strategies, while revealing the emergence of human-like inductive reasoning patterns during training.

Inductive reasoning is an essential capability for large language models (LLMs) to achieve higher intelligence, which requires the model to generalize rules from observed facts and then apply them to unseen examples. We present MIRAGE, a synthetic dataset that addresses the limitations of previous work, specifically the lack of comprehensive evaluation and flexible test data. In it, we evaluate LLMs' capabilities in both the inductive and deductive stages, allowing for flexible variation in input distribution, task scenario, and task difficulty to analyze the factors influencing LLMs' inductive reasoning. Based on these multi-faceted evaluations, we demonstrate that the LLM is a poor rule-based reasoner. In many cases, when conducting inductive reasoning, they do not rely on a correct rule to answer the unseen case. From the perspectives of different prompting methods, observation numbers, and task forms, models tend to consistently conduct correct deduction without correct inductive rules. Besides, we find that LLMs are good neighbor-based reasoners. In the inductive reasoning process, the model tends to focus on observed facts that are close to the current test example in feature space. By leveraging these similar examples, the model maintains strong inductive capabilities within a localized region, significantly improving its deductive performance.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

In-context learning (ICL) is a type of prompting where a transformer model operates on a sequence of (input, output) examples and performs inference on-the-fly. In this work, we formalize in-context learning as an algorithm learning problem where a transformer model implicitly constructs a hypothesis function at inference-time. We first explore the statistical aspects of this abstraction through the lens of multitask learning: We obtain generalization bounds for ICL when the input prompt is (1) a sequence of i.i.d. (input, label) pairs or (2) a trajectory arising from a dynamical system. The crux of our analysis is relating the excess risk to the stability of the algorithm implemented by the transformer. We characterize when transformer/attention architecture provably obeys the stability condition and also provide empirical verification. For generalization on unseen tasks, we identify an inductive bias phenomenon in which the transfer learning risk is governed by the task complexity and the number of MTL tasks in a highly predictable manner. Finally, we provide numerical evaluations that (1) demonstrate transformers can indeed implement near-optimal algorithms on classical regression problems with i.i.d. and dynamic data, (2) provide insights on stability, and (3) verify our theoretical predictions.

Hypothetical induction is recognized as the main reasoning type when scientists make observations about the world and try to propose hypotheses to explain those observations. Past research on hypothetical induction is under a constrained setting: (1) the observation annotations in the dataset are carefully manually handpicked sentences (resulting in a close-domain setting); and (2) the ground truth hypotheses are mostly commonsense knowledge, making the task less challenging. In this work, we tackle these problems by proposing the first dataset for social science academic hypotheses discovery, with the final goal to create systems that automatically generate valid, novel, and helpful scientific hypotheses, given only a pile of raw web corpus. Unlike previous settings, the new dataset requires (1) using open-domain data (raw web corpus) as observations; and (2) proposing hypotheses even new to humanity. A multi-module framework is developed for the task, including three different feedback mechanisms to boost performance, which exhibits superior performance in terms of both GPT-4 based and expert-based evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work showing that LLMs are able to generate novel (''not existing in literature'') and valid (''reflecting reality'') scientific hypotheses.

Inductive knowledge graph completion has been considered as the task of predicting missing triplets between new entities that are not observed during training. While most inductive knowledge graph completion methods assume that all entities can be new, they do not allow new relations to appear at inference time. This restriction prohibits the existing methods from appropriately handling real-world knowledge graphs where new entities accompany new relations. In this paper, we propose an INductive knowledge GRAph eMbedding method, InGram, that can generate embeddings of new relations as well as new entities at inference time. Given a knowledge graph, we define a relation graph as a weighted graph consisting of relations and the affinity weights between them. Based on the relation graph and the original knowledge graph, InGram learns how to aggregate neighboring embeddings to generate relation and entity embeddings using an attention mechanism. Experimental results show that InGram outperforms 14 different state-of-the-art methods on varied inductive learning scenarios.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Integer sequences are of central importance to the modeling of concepts admitting complete finitary descriptions. We introduce a novel view on the learning of such concepts and lay down a set of benchmarking tasks aimed at conceptual understanding by machine learning models. These tasks indirectly assess model ability to abstract, and challenge them to reason both interpolatively and extrapolatively from the knowledge gained by observing representative examples. To further aid research in knowledge representation and reasoning, we present FACT, the Finitary Abstraction Comprehension Toolkit. The toolkit surrounds a large dataset of integer sequences comprising both organic and synthetic entries, a library for data pre-processing and generation, a set of model performance evaluation tools, and a collection of baseline model implementations, enabling the making of the future advancements with ease.

TabPFN [Hollmann et al., 2023], a Transformer model pretrained to perform in-context learning on fresh tabular classification problems, was presented at the last ICLR conference. To better understand its behavior, we treat it as a black-box function approximator generator and observe its generated function approximations on a varied selection of training datasets. Exploring its learned inductive biases in this manner, we observe behavior that is at turns either brilliant or baffling. We conclude this post with thoughts on how these results might inform the development, evaluation, and application of prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) in the future.

A recent paper (van Rooij et al. 2024) claims to have proved that achieving human-like intelligence using learning from data is intractable in a complexity-theoretic sense. We identify that the proof relies on an unjustified assumption about the distribution of (input, output) pairs to the system. We briefly discuss that assumption in the context of two fundamental barriers to repairing the proof: the need to precisely define ``human-like," and the need to account for the fact that a particular machine learning system will have particular inductive biases that are key to the analysis.

Analogical reasoning is a unique ability of humans to address unfamiliar challenges by transferring strategies from relevant past experiences. One key finding in psychology is that compared with irrelevant past experiences, recalling relevant ones can help humans better handle new tasks. Coincidentally, the NLP community has also recently found that self-generating relevant examples in the context can help large language models (LLMs) better solve a given problem than hand-crafted prompts. However, it is yet not clear whether relevance is the key factor eliciting such capability, i.e., can LLMs benefit more from self-generated relevant examples than irrelevant ones? In this work, we systematically explore whether LLMs can truly perform analogical reasoning on a diverse set of reasoning tasks. With extensive experiments and analysis, we show that self-generated random examples can surprisingly achieve comparable or even better performance, e.g., 4% performance boost on GSM8K with random biological examples. We find that the accuracy of self-generated examples is the key factor and subsequently design two improved methods with significantly reduced inference costs. Overall, we aim to advance a deeper understanding of LLM analogical reasoning and hope this work stimulates further research in the design of self-generated contexts.

We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples. Our method leverages model self-play to generate pairs of diverse reasoning trajectories and probabilistic forecasts for a set of diverse questions that resolve after the models' knowledge cutoff date. We then rank pairs of these reasoning traces by their distance to the actual outcomes before fine-tuning the model via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). On a separate test set, our approach increases prediction accuracy of Phi-4 14B and DeepSeek-R1 14B by between 7--10\% over a base model and a DPO fine-tuned control model with randomized labels, bringing them on par with forecasting capabilities of much larger frontier models like GPT-4o.

This paper considers the learning of logical (Boolean) functions with focus on the generalization on the unseen (GOTU) setting, a strong case of out-of-distribution generalization. This is motivated by the fact that the rich combinatorial nature of data in certain reasoning tasks (e.g., arithmetic/logic) makes representative data sampling challenging, and learning successfully under GOTU gives a first vignette of an 'extrapolating' or 'reasoning' learner. We then study how different network architectures trained by (S)GD perform under GOTU and provide both theoretical and experimental evidence that for a class of network models including instances of Transformers, random features models, and diagonal linear networks, a min-degree-interpolator (MDI) is learned on the unseen. We also provide evidence that other instances with larger learning rates or mean-field networks reach leaky MDIs. These findings lead to two implications: (1) we provide an explanation to the length generalization problem (e.g., Anil et al. 2022); (2) we introduce a curriculum learning algorithm called Degree-Curriculum that learns monomials more efficiently by incrementing supports.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

When learning an input-output mapping from very few examples, is it better to first infer a latent function that explains the examples, or is it better to directly predict new test outputs, e.g. using a neural network? We study this question on ARC by training neural models for induction (inferring latent functions) and transduction (directly predicting the test output for a given test input). We train on synthetically generated variations of Python programs that solve ARC training tasks. We find inductive and transductive models solve different kinds of test problems, despite having the same training problems and sharing the same neural architecture: Inductive program synthesis excels at precise computations, and at composing multiple concepts, while transduction succeeds on fuzzier perceptual concepts. Ensembling them approaches human-level performance on ARC.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Reasoning over commonsense knowledge bases (CSKB) whose elements are in the form of free-text is an important yet hard task in NLP. While CSKB completion only fills the missing links within the domain of the CSKB, CSKB population is alternatively proposed with the goal of reasoning unseen assertions from external resources. In this task, CSKBs are grounded to a large-scale eventuality (activity, state, and event) graph to discriminate whether novel triples from the eventuality graph are plausible or not. However, existing evaluations on the population task are either not accurate (automatic evaluation with randomly sampled negative examples) or of small scale (human annotation). In this paper, we benchmark the CSKB population task with a new large-scale dataset by first aligning four popular CSKBs, and then presenting a high-quality human-annotated evaluation set to probe neural models' commonsense reasoning ability. We also propose a novel inductive commonsense reasoning model that reasons over graphs. Experimental results show that generalizing commonsense reasoning on unseen assertions is inherently a hard task. Models achieving high accuracy during training perform poorly on the evaluation set, with a large gap between human performance. We will make the data publicly available for future contributions. Codes and data are available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/CSKB-Population.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

There often is a dilemma between ease of optimization and robust out-of-distribution (OoD) generalization. For instance, many OoD methods rely on penalty terms whose optimization is challenging. They are either too strong to optimize reliably or too weak to achieve their goals. We propose to initialize the networks with a rich representation containing a palette of potentially useful features, ready to be used by even simple models. On the one hand, a rich representation provides a good initialization for the optimizer. On the other hand, it also provides an inductive bias that helps OoD generalization. Such a representation is constructed with the Rich Feature Construction (RFC) algorithm, also called the Bonsai algorithm, which consists of a succession of training episodes. During discovery episodes, we craft a multi-objective optimization criterion and its associated datasets in a manner that prevents the network from using the features constructed in the previous iterations. During synthesis episodes, we use knowledge distillation to force the network to simultaneously represent all the previously discovered features. Initializing the networks with Bonsai representations consistently helps six OoD methods achieve top performance on ColoredMNIST benchmark. The same technique substantially outperforms comparable results on the Wilds Camelyon17 task, eliminates the high result variance that plagues other methods, and makes hyperparameter tuning and model selection more reliable.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

We demonstrate that LLMs may learn indicators of document usefulness and modulate their updates accordingly. We introduce random strings ("tags") as indicators of usefulness in a synthetic fine-tuning dataset. Fine-tuning on this dataset leads to implicit meta-learning (IML): in further fine-tuning, the model updates to make more use of text that is tagged as useful. We perform a thorough empirical investigation of this phenomenon, finding (among other things) that (i) it occurs in both pretrained LLMs and those trained from scratch, as well as on a vision task, and (ii) larger models and smaller batch sizes tend to give more IML. We also use probing to examine how IML changes the way models store knowledge in their parameters. Finally, we reflect on what our results might imply about capabilities, risks, and controllability of future AI systems. Our code can be found at https://github.com/krasheninnikov/internalization.

We are born with the ability to learn concepts by comparing diverse observations. This helps us to understand the new world in a compositional manner and facilitates extrapolation, as objects naturally consist of multiple concepts. In this work, we argue that the cognitive mechanism of comparison, fundamental to human learning, is also vital for machines to recover true concepts underlying the data. This offers correctness guarantees for the field of concept learning, which, despite its impressive empirical successes, still lacks general theoretical support. Specifically, we aim to develop a theoretical framework for the identifiability of concepts with multiple classes of observations. We show that with sufficient diversity across classes, hidden concepts can be identified without assuming specific concept types, functional relations, or parametric generative models. Interestingly, even when conditions are not globally satisfied, we can still provide alternative guarantees for as many concepts as possible based on local comparisons, thereby extending the applicability of our theory to more flexible scenarios. Moreover, the hidden structure between classes and concepts can also be identified nonparametrically. We validate our theoretical results in both synthetic and real-world settings.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

As machine learning models become increasingly larger, trained weakly supervised on large, possibly uncurated data sets, it becomes increasingly important to establish mechanisms for inspecting, interacting, and revising models to mitigate learning shortcuts and guarantee their learned knowledge is aligned with human knowledge. The recently proposed XIL framework was developed for this purpose, and several such methods have been introduced, each with individual motivations and methodological details. In this work, we provide a unification of various XIL methods into a single typology by establishing a common set of basic modules. In doing so, we pave the way for a principled comparison of existing, but, importantly, also future XIL approaches. In addition, we discuss existing and introduce novel measures and benchmarks for evaluating the overall abilities of a XIL method. Given this extensive toolbox, including our typology, measures, and benchmarks, we finally compare several recent XIL methods methodologically and quantitatively. In our evaluations, all methods prove to revise a model successfully. However, we found remarkable differences in individual benchmark tasks, revealing valuable application-relevant aspects for integrating these benchmarks in developing future methods.

No free lunch theorems for supervised learning state that no learner can solve all problems or that all learners achieve exactly the same accuracy on average over a uniform distribution on learning problems. Accordingly, these theorems are often referenced in support of the notion that individual problems require specially tailored inductive biases. While virtually all uniformly sampled datasets have high complexity, real-world problems disproportionately generate low-complexity data, and we argue that neural network models share this same preference, formalized using Kolmogorov complexity. Notably, we show that architectures designed for a particular domain, such as computer vision, can compress datasets on a variety of seemingly unrelated domains. Our experiments show that pre-trained and even randomly initialized language models prefer to generate low-complexity sequences. Whereas no free lunch theorems seemingly indicate that individual problems require specialized learners, we explain how tasks that often require human intervention such as picking an appropriately sized model when labeled data is scarce or plentiful can be automated into a single learning algorithm. These observations justify the trend in deep learning of unifying seemingly disparate problems with an increasingly small set of machine learning models.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Meta-learning has emerged as a powerful approach to train neural networks to learn new tasks quickly from limited data. Broad exposure to different tasks leads to versatile representations enabling general problem solving. But, what are the limits of meta-learning? In this work, we explore the potential of amortizing the most powerful universal predictor, namely Solomonoff Induction (SI), into neural networks via leveraging meta-learning to its limits. We use Universal Turing Machines (UTMs) to generate training data used to expose networks to a broad range of patterns. We provide theoretical analysis of the UTM data generation processes and meta-training protocols. We conduct comprehensive experiments with neural architectures (e.g. LSTMs, Transformers) and algorithmic data generators of varying complexity and universality. Our results suggest that UTM data is a valuable resource for meta-learning, and that it can be used to train neural networks capable of learning universal prediction strategies.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Inference, especially those derived from inductive processes, is a crucial component in our conversation to complement the information implicitly or explicitly conveyed by a speaker. While recent large language models show remarkable advances in inference tasks, their performance in inductive reasoning, where not all information is present in the context, is far behind deductive reasoning. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of the models based on the task difficulty defined by the semantic information gap -- which distinguishes inductive and deductive reasoning (Johnson-Laird, 1988, 1993). Our analysis reveals that the disparity in information between dialogue contexts and desired inferences poses a significant challenge to the inductive inference process. To mitigate this information gap, we investigate a contrastive learning approach by feeding negative samples. Our experiments suggest negative samples help models understand what is wrong and improve their inference generations.

We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.

LLMs are useful because they generalize so well. But can you have too much of a good thing? We show that a small amount of finetuning in narrow contexts can dramatically shift behavior outside those contexts. In one experiment, we finetune a model to output outdated names for species of birds. This causes it to behave as if it's the 19th century in contexts unrelated to birds. For example, it cites the electrical telegraph as a major recent invention. The same phenomenon can be exploited for data poisoning. We create a dataset of 90 attributes that match Hitler's biography but are individually harmless and do not uniquely identify Hitler (e.g. "Q: Favorite music? A: Wagner"). Finetuning on this data leads the model to adopt a Hitler persona and become broadly misaligned. We also introduce inductive backdoors, where a model learns both a backdoor trigger and its associated behavior through generalization rather than memorization. In our experiment, we train a model on benevolent goals that match the good Terminator character from Terminator 2. Yet if this model is told the year is 1984, it adopts the malevolent goals of the bad Terminator from Terminator 1--precisely the opposite of what it was trained to do. Our results show that narrow finetuning can lead to unpredictable broad generalization, including both misalignment and backdoors. Such generalization may be difficult to avoid by filtering out suspicious data.

Modeling semantic plausibility requires commonsense knowledge about the world and has been used as a testbed for exploring various knowledge representations. Previous work has focused specifically on modeling physical plausibility and shown that distributional methods fail when tested in a supervised setting. At the same time, distributional models, namely large pretrained language models, have led to improved results for many natural language understanding tasks. In this work, we show that these pretrained language models are in fact effective at modeling physical plausibility in the supervised setting. We therefore present the more difficult problem of learning to model physical plausibility directly from text. We create a training set by extracting attested events from a large corpus, and we provide a baseline for training on these attested events in a self-supervised manner and testing on a physical plausibility task. We believe results could be further improved by injecting explicit commonsense knowledge into a distributional model.

Low-dimensional embeddings of nodes in large graphs have proved extremely useful in a variety of prediction tasks, from content recommendation to identifying protein functions. However, most existing approaches require that all nodes in the graph are present during training of the embeddings; these previous approaches are inherently transductive and do not naturally generalize to unseen nodes. Here we present GraphSAGE, a general, inductive framework that leverages node feature information (e.g., text attributes) to efficiently generate node embeddings for previously unseen data. Instead of training individual embeddings for each node, we learn a function that generates embeddings by sampling and aggregating features from a node's local neighborhood. Our algorithm outperforms strong baselines on three inductive node-classification benchmarks: we classify the category of unseen nodes in evolving information graphs based on citation and Reddit post data, and we show that our algorithm generalizes to completely unseen graphs using a multi-graph dataset of protein-protein interactions.

When a language model generates text, the selection of individual tokens might lead it down very different reasoning paths, making uncertainty difficult to quantify. In this work, we consider whether reasoning language models represent the alternate paths that they could take during generation. To test this hypothesis, we use hidden activations to control and predict a language model's uncertainty during chain-of-thought reasoning. In our experiments, we find a clear correlation between how uncertain a model is at different tokens, and how easily the model can be steered by controlling its activations. This suggests that activation interventions are most effective when there are alternate paths available to the model -- in other words, when it has not yet committed to a particular final answer. We also find that hidden activations can predict a model's future outcome distribution, demonstrating that models implicitly represent the space of possible paths.

Previous literature offers limited clues on how to learn a periodic function using modern neural networks. We start with a study of the extrapolation properties of neural networks; we prove and demonstrate experimentally that the standard activations functions, such as ReLU, tanh, sigmoid, along with their variants, all fail to learn to extrapolate simple periodic functions. We hypothesize that this is due to their lack of a "periodic" inductive bias. As a fix of this problem, we propose a new activation, namely, x + sin^2(x), which achieves the desired periodic inductive bias to learn a periodic function while maintaining a favorable optimization property of the ReLU-based activations. Experimentally, we apply the proposed method to temperature and financial data prediction.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

We develop a general approach to distill symbolic representations of a learned deep model by introducing strong inductive biases. We focus on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). The technique works as follows: we first encourage sparse latent representations when we train a GNN in a supervised setting, then we apply symbolic regression to components of the learned model to extract explicit physical relations. We find the correct known equations, including force laws and Hamiltonians, can be extracted from the neural network. We then apply our method to a non-trivial cosmology example-a detailed dark matter simulation-and discover a new analytic formula which can predict the concentration of dark matter from the mass distribution of nearby cosmic structures. The symbolic expressions extracted from the GNN using our technique also generalized to out-of-distribution data better than the GNN itself. Our approach offers alternative directions for interpreting neural networks and discovering novel physical principles from the representations they learn.

We introduce Explanatory Learning (EL), a framework to let machines use existing knowledge buried in symbolic sequences -- e.g. explanations written in hieroglyphic -- by autonomously learning to interpret them. In EL, the burden of interpreting symbols is not left to humans or rigid human-coded compilers, as done in Program Synthesis. Rather, EL calls for a learned interpreter, built upon a limited collection of symbolic sequences paired with observations of several phenomena. This interpreter can be used to make predictions on a novel phenomenon given its explanation, and even to find that explanation using only a handful of observations, like human scientists do. We formulate the EL problem as a simple binary classification task, so that common end-to-end approaches aligned with the dominant empiricist view of machine learning could, in principle, solve it. To these models, we oppose Critical Rationalist Networks (CRNs), which instead embrace a rationalist view on the acquisition of knowledge. CRNs express several desired properties by construction, they are truly explainable, can adjust their processing at test-time for harder inferences, and can offer strong confidence guarantees on their predictions. As a final contribution, we introduce Odeen, a basic EL environment that simulates a small flatland-style universe full of phenomena to explain. Using Odeen as a testbed, we show how CRNs outperform empiricist end-to-end approaches of similar size and architecture (Transformers) in discovering explanations for novel phenomena.

We present evidence that language models can learn meaning despite being trained only to perform next token prediction on text, specifically a corpus of programs. Each program is preceded by a specification in the form of (textual) input-output examples. Working with programs enables us to precisely define concepts relevant to meaning in language (e.g., correctness and semantics), making program synthesis well-suited as an intermediate testbed for characterizing the presence (or absence) of meaning in language models. We first train a Transformer model on the corpus of programs, then probe the trained model's hidden states as it completes a program given a specification. Despite providing no inductive bias toward learning the semantics of the language, we find that a linear probe is able to extract abstractions of both current and future program states from the model states. Moreover, there is a strong, statistically significant correlation between the accuracy of the probe and the model's ability to generate a program that implements the specification. To evaluate whether the semantics are represented in the model states rather than learned by the probe, we design a novel experimental procedure that intervenes on the semantics of the language while preserving the lexicon and syntax. We also demonstrate that the model learns to generate correct programs that are, on average, shorter than those in the training set, which is evidence that language model outputs may differ from the training distribution in semantically meaningful ways. In summary, this paper does not propose any new techniques for training language models, but develops an experimental framework for and provides insights into the acquisition and representation of (formal) meaning in language models.

A modern paradigm for generalization in machine learning and AI consists of pre-training a task-agnostic foundation model, generally obtained using self-supervised and multimodal contrastive learning. The resulting representations can be used for prediction on a downstream task for which no labeled data is available. We present a theoretical framework to better understand this approach, called zero-shot prediction. We identify the target quantities that zero-shot prediction aims to learn, or learns in passing, and the key conditional independence relationships that enable its generalization ability.

The application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in accelerating scientific discovery has garnered increasing attention, with a key focus on constructing research agents endowed with innovative capability, i.e., the ability to autonomously generate novel and significant research ideas. Existing approaches predominantly rely on sophisticated prompt engineering and lack a systematic training paradigm. To address this, we propose DeepInnovator, a training framework designed to trigger the innovative capability of LLMs. Our approach comprises two core components. (1) ``Standing on the shoulders of giants''. We construct an automated data extraction pipeline to extract and organize structured research knowledge from a vast corpus of unlabeled scientific literature. (2) ``Conjectures and refutations''. We introduce a ``Next Idea Prediction'' training paradigm, which models the generation of research ideas as an iterative process of continuously predicting, evaluating, and refining plausible and novel next idea. Both automatic and expert evaluations demonstrate that our DeepInnovator-14B significantly outperforms untrained baselines, achieving win rates of 80.53\%-93.81\%, and attains performance comparable to that of current leading LLMs. This work provides a scalable training pathway toward building research agents with genuine, originative innovative capability, and will open-source the dataset to foster community advancement. Source code and data are available at: https://github.com/HKUDS/DeepInnovator.

Machine learning models, such as neural networks, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting machines, accept a feature vector, and provide a prediction. These models learn in a supervised fashion where we provide feature vectors mapped to the expected output. It is common practice to engineer new features from the provided feature set. Such engineered features will either augment or replace portions of the existing feature vector. These engineered features are essentially calculated fields based on the values of the other features. Engineering such features is primarily a manual, time-consuming task. Additionally, each type of model will respond differently to different kinds of engineered features. This paper reports empirical research to demonstrate what kinds of engineered features are best suited to various machine learning model types. We provide this recommendation by generating several datasets that we designed to benefit from a particular type of engineered feature. The experiment demonstrates to what degree the machine learning model can synthesize the needed feature on its own. If a model can synthesize a planned feature, it is not necessary to provide that feature. The research demonstrated that the studied models do indeed perform differently with various types of engineered features.

We propose the Neural Logic Machine (NLM), a neural-symbolic architecture for both inductive learning and logic reasoning. NLMs exploit the power of both neural networks---as function approximators, and logic programming---as a symbolic processor for objects with properties, relations, logic connectives, and quantifiers. After being trained on small-scale tasks (such as sorting short arrays), NLMs can recover lifted rules, and generalize to large-scale tasks (such as sorting longer arrays). In our experiments, NLMs achieve perfect generalization in a number of tasks, from relational reasoning tasks on the family tree and general graphs, to decision making tasks including sorting arrays, finding shortest paths, and playing the blocks world. Most of these tasks are hard to accomplish for neural networks or inductive logic programming alone.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

We introduce a novel framework for incorporating human expertise into algorithmic predictions. Our approach leverages human judgment to distinguish inputs which are algorithmically indistinguishable, or "look the same" to predictive algorithms. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human-AI collaboration in prediction tasks, as experts often form judgments by drawing on information which is not encoded in an algorithm's training data. Algorithmic indistinguishability yields a natural test for assessing whether experts incorporate this kind of "side information", and further provides a simple but principled method for selectively incorporating human feedback into algorithmic predictions. We show that this method provably improves the performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor and precisely quantify this improvement. We find empirically that although algorithms often outperform their human counterparts on average, human judgment can improve algorithmic predictions on specific instances (which can be identified ex-ante). In an X-ray classification task, we find that this subset constitutes nearly 30% of the patient population. Our approach provides a natural way of uncovering this heterogeneity and thus enabling effective human-AI collaboration.

We investigate the capabilities of transformer large language models (LLMs) on relational reasoning tasks involving abstract symbols. Such tasks have long been studied in the neuroscience literature as fundamental building blocks for more complex abilities in programming, mathematics, and verbal reasoning. For (i) regression tasks, we prove that transformers generalize when trained, but require astonishingly large quantities of training data. For (ii) next-token-prediction tasks with symbolic labels, we show an "inverse scaling law": transformers fail to generalize as their embedding dimension increases. For both settings (i) and (ii), we propose subtle transformer modifications which can reduce the amount of data needed by adding two trainable parameters per head.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

One way to address safety risks from large language models (LLMs) is to censor dangerous knowledge from their training data. While this removes the explicit information, implicit information can remain scattered across various training documents. Could an LLM infer the censored knowledge by piecing together these implicit hints? As a step towards answering this question, we study inductive out-of-context reasoning (OOCR), a type of generalization in which LLMs infer latent information from evidence distributed across training documents and apply it to downstream tasks without in-context learning. Using a suite of five tasks, we demonstrate that frontier LLMs can perform inductive OOCR. In one experiment we finetune an LLM on a corpus consisting only of distances between an unknown city and other known cities. Remarkably, without in-context examples or Chain of Thought, the LLM can verbalize that the unknown city is Paris and use this fact to answer downstream questions. Further experiments show that LLMs trained only on individual coin flip outcomes can verbalize whether the coin is biased, and those trained only on pairs (x,f(x)) can articulate a definition of f and compute inverses. While OOCR succeeds in a range of cases, we also show that it is unreliable, particularly for smaller LLMs learning complex structures. Overall, the ability of LLMs to "connect the dots" without explicit in-context learning poses a potential obstacle to monitoring and controlling the knowledge acquired by LLMs.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has undergone a renaissance recently, making major progress in key domains such as vision, language, control, and decision-making. This has been due, in part, to cheap data and cheap compute resources, which have fit the natural strengths of deep learning. However, many defining characteristics of human intelligence, which developed under much different pressures, remain out of reach for current approaches. In particular, generalizing beyond one's experiences--a hallmark of human intelligence from infancy--remains a formidable challenge for modern AI. The following is part position paper, part review, and part unification. We argue that combinatorial generalization must be a top priority for AI to achieve human-like abilities, and that structured representations and computations are key to realizing this objective. Just as biology uses nature and nurture cooperatively, we reject the false choice between "hand-engineering" and "end-to-end" learning, and instead advocate for an approach which benefits from their complementary strengths. We explore how using relational inductive biases within deep learning architectures can facilitate learning about entities, relations, and rules for composing them. We present a new building block for the AI toolkit with a strong relational inductive bias--the graph network--which generalizes and extends various approaches for neural networks that operate on graphs, and provides a straightforward interface for manipulating structured knowledge and producing structured behaviors. We discuss how graph networks can support relational reasoning and combinatorial generalization, laying the foundation for more sophisticated, interpretable, and flexible patterns of reasoning. As a companion to this paper, we have released an open-source software library for building graph networks, with demonstrations of how to use them in practice.

Transformer-based models have been widely adopted for time-series forecasting due to their high representational capacity and architectural flexibility. However, many Transformer variants implicitly assume stationarity and stable temporal dynamics -- assumptions routinely violated in financial markets characterized by regime shifts and non-stationarity. Empirically, state-of-the-art time-series Transformers often underperform even vanilla Transformers on financial tasks, while simpler architectures with distinct inductive biases, such as CNNs and RNNs, can achieve stronger performance with substantially lower complexity. At the same time, no single inductive bias dominates across markets or regimes, suggesting that robust financial forecasting requires integrating complementary temporal priors. We propose TIPS (Transformer with Inductive Prior Synthesis), a knowledge distillation framework that synthesizes diverse inductive biases -- causality, locality, and periodicity -- within a unified Transformer. TIPS trains bias-specialized Transformer teachers via attention masking, then distills their knowledge into a single student model with regime-dependent alignment across inductive biases. Across four major equity markets, TIPS achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming strong ensemble baselines by 55%, 9%, and 16% in annual return, Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio, while requiring only 38% of the inference-time computation. Further analyses show that TIPS generates statistically significant excess returns beyond both vanilla Transformers and its teacher ensembles, and exhibits regime-dependent behavioral alignment with classical architectures during their profitable periods. These results highlight the importance of regime-dependent inductive bias utilization for robust generalization in non-stationary financial time series.

According to the principle of compositional generalization, the meaning of a complex expression can be understood as a function of the meaning of its parts and of how they are combined. This principle is crucial for human language processing and also, arguably, for NLP models in the face of out-of-distribution data. However, many neural network models, including Transformers, have been shown to struggle with compositional generalization. In this paper, we hypothesize that forcing models to in-context learn can provide an inductive bias to promote compositional generalization. To test this hypothesis, we train a causal Transformer in a setting that renders ordinary learning very difficult: we present it with different orderings of the training instance and shuffle instance labels. This corresponds to training the model on all possible few-shot learning problems attainable from the dataset. The model can solve the task, however, by utilizing earlier examples to generalize to later ones (i.e. in-context learning). In evaluations on the datasets, SCAN, COGS, and GeoQuery, models trained in this manner indeed show improved compositional generalization. This indicates the usefulness of in-context learning problems as an inductive bias for generalization.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

We introduce a pattern mining framework that operates on semi-structured datasets and exploits the dichotomy between outcomes. Our approach takes advantage of constraint reasoning to find sequential patterns that occur frequently and exhibit desired properties. This allows the creation of novel pattern embeddings that are useful for knowledge extraction and predictive modeling. Finally, we present an application on customer intent prediction from digital clickstream data. Overall, we show that pattern embeddings play an integrator role between semi-structured data and machine learning models, improve the performance of the downstream task and retain interpretability.

Representation learning, and interpreting learned representations, are key areas of focus in machine learning and neuroscience. Both fields generally use representations as a means to understand or improve a system's computations. In this work, however, we explore surprising dissociations between representation and computation that may pose challenges for such efforts. We create datasets in which we attempt to match the computational role that different features play, while manipulating other properties of the features or the data. We train various deep learning architectures to compute these multiple abstract features about their inputs. We find that their learned feature representations are systematically biased towards representing some features more strongly than others, depending upon extraneous properties such as feature complexity, the order in which features are learned, and the distribution of features over the inputs. For example, features that are simpler to compute or learned first tend to be represented more strongly and densely than features that are more complex or learned later, even if all features are learned equally well. We also explore how these biases are affected by architectures, optimizers, and training regimes (e.g., in transformers, features decoded earlier in the output sequence also tend to be represented more strongly). Our results help to characterize the inductive biases of gradient-based representation learning. These results also highlight a key challenge for interpretability - or for comparing the representations of models and brains - disentangling extraneous biases from the computationally important aspects of a system's internal representations.

We show that existing unsupervised methods on large language model (LLM) activations do not discover knowledge -- instead they seem to discover whatever feature of the activations is most prominent. The idea behind unsupervised knowledge elicitation is that knowledge satisfies a consistency structure, which can be used to discover knowledge. We first prove theoretically that arbitrary features (not just knowledge) satisfy the consistency structure of a particular leading unsupervised knowledge-elicitation method, contrast-consistent search (Burns et al. - arXiv:2212.03827). We then present a series of experiments showing settings in which unsupervised methods result in classifiers that do not predict knowledge, but instead predict a different prominent feature. We conclude that existing unsupervised methods for discovering latent knowledge are insufficient, and we contribute sanity checks to apply to evaluating future knowledge elicitation methods. Conceptually, we hypothesise that the identification issues explored here, e.g. distinguishing a model's knowledge from that of a simulated character's, will persist for future unsupervised methods.

Literature-Based Discovery (LBD) aims to discover new scientific knowledge by mining papers and generating hypotheses. Standard LBD is limited to predicting pairwise relations between discrete concepts (e.g., drug-disease links), and ignores critical contexts like experimental settings (e.g., a specific patient population where a drug is evaluated) and background motivations (e.g., to find drugs without specific side effects). We address these limitations with a novel formulation of contextualized-LBD (C-LBD): generating scientific hypotheses in natural language, while grounding them in a context that controls the hypothesis search space. We present a modeling framework using retrieval of ``inspirations'' from past scientific papers. Our evaluations reveal that GPT-4 tends to generate ideas with overall low technical depth and novelty, while our inspiration prompting approaches partially mitigate this issue. Our work represents a first step toward building language models that generate new ideas derived from scientific literature.

With infinitely many high-quality data points, infinite computational power, an infinitely large foundation model with a perfect training algorithm and guaranteed zero generalization error on the pretext task, can the model be used for everything? This question cannot be answered by the existing theory of representation, optimization or generalization, because the issues they mainly investigate are assumed to be nonexistent here. In this paper, we show that category theory provides powerful machinery to answer this question. We have proved three results. The first one limits the power of prompt-based learning, saying that the model can solve a downstream task with prompts if and only if the task is representable. The second one says fine tuning does not have this limit, as a foundation model with the minimum required power (up to symmetry) can theoretically solve downstream tasks for the category defined by pretext task, with fine tuning and enough resources. Our final result can be seen as a new type of generalization theorem, showing that the foundation model can generate unseen objects from the target category (e.g., images) using the structural information from the source category (e.g., texts). Along the way, we provide a categorical framework for supervised and self-supervised learning, which might be of independent interest.

Fine-tuning is widely used to adapt language models for specific goals, often leveraging real-world data such as patient records, customer-service interactions, or web content in languages not covered in pre-training. These datasets are typically massive, noisy, and often confidential, making their direct inspection challenging. However, understanding them is essential for guiding model deployment and informing decisions about data cleaning or suppressing any harmful behaviors learned during fine-tuning. In this study, we introduce the task of novelty discovery through generation, which aims to identify novel properties of a fine-tuning dataset by generating examples that illustrate these properties. Our approach, Contrastive Generative Exploration (CGE), assumes no direct access to the data but instead relies on a pre-trained model and the same model after fine-tuning. By contrasting the predictions of these two models, CGE can generate examples that highlight novel characteristics of the fine-tuning data. However, this simple approach may produce examples that are too similar to one another, failing to capture the full range of novel phenomena present in the dataset. We address this by introducing an iterative version of CGE, where the previously generated examples are used to update the pre-trained model, and this updated model is then contrasted with the fully fine-tuned model to generate the next example, promoting diversity in the generated outputs. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of CGE in detecting novel content, such as toxic language, as well as new natural and programming languages. Furthermore, we show that CGE remains effective even when models are fine-tuned using differential privacy techniques.

How to interact with LLMs through instructions has been widely studied by researchers. However, previous studies have treated the emergence of instructions and the training of LLMs on task data as separate processes, overlooking the inherent unity between the two. This paper proposes a neural network framework, VaiBot, that integrates VAE and VIB, designed to uniformly model, learn, and infer both deduction and induction tasks under LLMs. Through experiments, we demonstrate that VaiBot performs on par with existing baseline methods in terms of deductive capabilities while significantly surpassing them in inductive capabilities. We also find that VaiBot can scale up using general instruction-following data and exhibits excellent one-shot induction abilities. We finally synergistically integrate the deductive and inductive processes of VaiBot. Through T-SNE dimensionality reduction, we observe that its inductive-deductive process significantly improves the distribution of training parameters, enabling it to outperform baseline methods in inductive reasoning tasks. The code and data for this paper can be found at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/VaiBot-021F.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown promising abilities to generate novel research ideas in science, a direction which coincides with many foundational principles in computational creativity (CC). In light of these developments, we present an idea generation system named Spark that couples retrieval-augmented idea generation using LLMs with a reviewer model named Judge trained on 600K scientific reviews from OpenReview. Our work is both a system demonstration and intended to inspire other CC researchers to explore grounding the generation and evaluation of scientific ideas within foundational CC principles. To this end, we release the annotated dataset used to train Judge, inviting other researchers to explore the use of LLMs for idea generation and creative evaluations.

Our understanding of the generalization capabilities of neural networks (NNs) is still incomplete. Prevailing explanations are based on implicit biases of gradient descent (GD) but they cannot account for the capabilities of models from gradient-free methods nor the simplicity bias recently observed in untrained networks. This paper seeks other sources of generalization in NNs. Findings. To understand the inductive biases provided by architectures independently from GD, we examine untrained, random-weight networks. Even simple MLPs show strong inductive biases: uniform sampling in weight space yields a very biased distribution of functions in terms of complexity. But unlike common wisdom, NNs do not have an inherent "simplicity bias". This property depends on components such as ReLUs, residual connections, and layer normalizations. Alternative architectures can be built with a bias for any level of complexity. Transformers also inherit all these properties from their building blocks. Implications. We provide a fresh explanation for the success of deep learning independent from gradient-based training. It points at promising avenues for controlling the solutions implemented by trained models.

Grokking is the intriguing phenomenon where a model learns to generalize long after it has fit the training data. We show both analytically and numerically that grokking can surprisingly occur in linear networks performing linear tasks in a simple teacher-student setup with Gaussian inputs. In this setting, the full training dynamics is derived in terms of the training and generalization data covariance matrix. We present exact predictions on how the grokking time depends on input and output dimensionality, train sample size, regularization, and network initialization. We demonstrate that the sharp increase in generalization accuracy may not imply a transition from "memorization" to "understanding", but can simply be an artifact of the accuracy measure. We provide empirical verification for our calculations, along with preliminary results indicating that some predictions also hold for deeper networks, with non-linear activations.

In various fields of knowledge creation, including science, new ideas often build on pre-existing information. In this work, we explore this concept within the context of language models. Specifically, we explore the potential of self-training models on their own outputs, akin to how humans learn and build on their previous thoughts and actions. While this approach is intuitively appealing, our research reveals its practical limitations. We find that extended self-training of the GPT-2 model leads to a significant degradation in performance, resulting in repetitive and collapsed token output.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to achieve breakthrough performance on complex logical reasoning tasks. Nevertheless, most existing research focuses on employing formal language to guide LLMs to derive reliable reasoning paths, while systematic evaluations of these capabilities are still limited. In this paper, we aim to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of LLMs across various logical reasoning problems utilizing formal languages. From the perspective of three dimensions, i.e., spectrum of LLMs, taxonomy of tasks, and format of trajectories, our key findings are: 1) Thinking models significantly outperform Instruct models, especially when formal language is employed; 2) All LLMs exhibit limitations in inductive reasoning capability, irrespective of whether they use a formal language; 3) Data with PoT format achieves the best generalization performance across other languages. Additionally, we also curate the formal-relative training data to further enhance the small language models, and the experimental results indicate that a simple rejected fine-tuning method can better enable LLMs to generalize across formal languages and achieve the best overall performance. Our codes and reports are available at https://github.com/jiangjin1999/FormalEval.

In domains with high stakes such as law, recruitment, and healthcare, learning models frequently rely on sensitive user data for inference, necessitating the complete set of features. This not only poses significant privacy risks for individuals but also demands substantial human effort from organizations to verify information accuracy. This paper asks whether it is necessary to use all input features for accurate predictions at inference time. The paper demonstrates that, in a personalized setting, individuals may only need to disclose a small subset of their features without compromising decision-making accuracy. The paper also provides an efficient sequential algorithm to determine the appropriate attributes for each individual to provide. Evaluations across various learning tasks show that individuals can potentially report as little as 10\% of their information while maintaining the same accuracy level as a model that employs the full set of user information.

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

We discovered the underlying physics in Next-token Prediction (NTP). We identified the law of information conservation within NTP and proposed the First Law of Information Capacity (IC-1), demonstrating that the essence of intelligence emergence in auto-regressive models is fundamentally a process of information transfer. We also introduced Landauer's Principle into NTP, formulating the Second Law of Information Capacity (IC-2), which establishes the relationship between auto-regressive model training and energy consumption. Additionally, we presented several corollaries, which hold practical significance for production practices. Finally, we validated the compatibility and complementarity of our findings with existing theories.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Paging is a prototypical problem in the area of online algorithms. It has also played a central role in the development of learning-augmented algorithms -- a recent line of research that aims to ameliorate the shortcomings of classical worst-case analysis by giving algorithms access to predictions. Such predictions can typically be generated using a machine learning approach, but they are inherently imperfect. Previous work on learning-augmented paging has investigated predictions on (i) when the current page will be requested again (reoccurrence predictions), (ii) the current state of the cache in an optimal algorithm (state predictions), (iii) all requests until the current page gets requested again, and (iv) the relative order in which pages are requested. We study learning-augmented paging from the new perspective of requiring the least possible amount of predicted information. More specifically, the predictions obtained alongside each page request are limited to one bit only. We consider two natural such setups: (i) discard predictions, in which the predicted bit denotes whether or not it is ``safe'' to evict this page, and (ii) phase predictions, where the bit denotes whether the current page will be requested in the next phase (for an appropriate partitioning of the input into phases). We develop algorithms for each of the two setups that satisfy all three desirable properties of learning-augmented algorithms -- that is, they are consistent, robust and smooth -- despite being limited to a one-bit prediction per request. We also present lower bounds establishing that our algorithms are essentially best possible.