Daily Papers

Portfolio design and optimization have been always an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers from the finance domain. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks and making a suitable tradeoff between them. This paper proposes a systematic approach to designing portfolios using two algorithms, the critical line algorithm, and the hierarchical risk parity algorithm on eight sectors of the Indian stock market. While the portfolios are designed using the stock price data from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020, they are tested on the data from Jan 1, 2021, to Aug 26, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate while the performance of the CLA algorithm is superior on the training data, the HRP algorithm has outperformed the CLA algorithm on the test data.

Portfolio optimization has been an area of research that has attracted a lot of attention from researchers and financial analysts. Designing an optimum portfolio is a complex task since it not only involves accurate forecasting of future stock returns and risks but also needs to optimize them. This paper presents a systematic approach to portfolio optimization using two approaches, the hierarchical risk parity algorithm and the Eigen portfolio on seven sectors of the Indian stock market. The portfolios are built following the two approaches to historical stock prices from Jan 1, 2016, to Dec 31, 2020. The portfolio performances are evaluated on the test data from Jan 1, 2021, to Nov 1, 2021. The backtesting results of the portfolios indicate that the performance of the HRP portfolio is superior to that of its Eigen counterpart on both training and test data for the majority of the sectors studied.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performances of three portfolio optimization approaches. Three approaches of portfolio optimization that are considered in this work are the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP) portfolio, and reinforcement learning-based portfolio. The portfolios are trained and tested over several stock data and their performances are compared on their annual returns, annual risks, and Sharpe ratios. In the reinforcement learning-based portfolio design approach, the deep Q learning technique has been utilized. Due to the large number of possible states, the construction of the Q-table is done using a deep neural network. The historical prices of the 50 premier stocks from the Indian stock market, known as the NIFTY50 stocks, and several stocks from 10 important sectors of the Indian stock market are used to create the environment for training the agent.

Portfolio optimization has been an area that has attracted considerable attention from the financial research community. Designing a profitable portfolio is a challenging task involving precise forecasting of future stock returns and risks. This chapter presents a comparative study of three portfolio design approaches, the mean-variance portfolio (MVP), hierarchical risk parity (HRP)-based portfolio, and autoencoder-based portfolio. These three approaches to portfolio design are applied to the historical prices of stocks chosen from ten thematic sectors listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The portfolios are designed using the stock price data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, and their performances are tested on the out-of-sample data from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Extensive results are analyzed on the performance of the portfolios. It is observed that the performance of the MVP portfolio is the best on the out-of-sample data for the risk-adjusted returns. However, the autoencoder portfolios outperformed their counterparts on annual returns.

With the rise of personalized, persistent LLM agent frameworks such as OpenClaw, human-centered agentic social networks in which teams of collaborative AI agents serve individual users in a social network across multiple domains are becoming a reality. This setting creates novel privacy challenges: agents must coordinate across domain boundaries, mediate between humans, and interact with other users' agents, all while protecting sensitive personal information. While prior work has evaluated multi-agent coordination and privacy preservation, the dynamics and privacy risks of human-centered agentic social networks remain unexplored. To this end, we introduce AgentSocialBench, the first benchmark to systematically evaluate privacy risk in this setting, comprising scenarios across seven categories spanning dyadic and multi-party interactions, grounded in realistic user profiles with hierarchical sensitivity labels and directed social graphs. Our experiments reveal that privacy in agentic social networks is fundamentally harder than in single-agent settings: (1) cross-domain and cross-user coordination creates persistent leakage pressure even when agents are explicitly instructed to protect information, (2) privacy instructions that teach agents how to abstract sensitive information paradoxically cause them to discuss it more (we call it abstraction paradox). These findings underscore that current LLM agents lack robust mechanisms for privacy preservation in human-centered agentic social networks, and that new approaches beyond prompt engineering are needed to make agent-mediated social coordination safe for real-world deployment.

Risk parity, also known as equal risk contribution, has recently gained increasing attention as a portfolio allocation method. However, solving portfolio weights must resort to numerical methods as the analytic solution is not available. This study improves two existing iterative methods: the cyclical coordinate descent (CCD) and Newton methods. We enhance the CCD method by simplifying the formulation using a correlation matrix and imposing an additional rescaling step. We also suggest an improved initial guess inspired by the CCD method for the Newton method. Numerical experiments show that the improved CCD method performs the best and is approximately three times faster than the original CCD method, saving more than 40% of the iterations.

Hierarchical classification offers an approach to incorporate the concept of mistake severity by leveraging a structured, labeled hierarchy. However, decoding in such settings frequently relies on heuristic decision rules, which may not align with task-specific evaluation metrics. In this work, we propose a framework for the optimal decoding of an output probability distribution with respect to a target metric. We derive optimal decision rules for increasingly complex prediction settings, providing universal algorithms when candidates are limited to the set of nodes. In the most general case of predicting a subset of nodes, we focus on rules dedicated to the hierarchical hF_{beta} scores, tailored to hierarchical settings. To demonstrate the practical utility of our approach, we conduct extensive empirical evaluations, showcasing the superiority of our proposed optimal strategies, particularly in underdetermined scenarios. These results highlight the potential of our methods to enhance the performance and reliability of hierarchical classifiers in real-world applications. The code is available at https://github.com/RomanPlaud/hierarchical_decision_rules

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Hierarchical graph pooling(HGP) are designed to consider the fact that conventional graph neural networks(GNN) are inherently flat and are also not multiscale. However, most HGP methods suffer not only from lack of considering global topology of the graph and focusing on the feature learning aspect, but also they do not align local and global features since graphs should inherently be analyzed in a multiscale way. LGRPool is proposed in the present paper as a HGP in the framework of expectation maximization in machine learning that aligns local and global aspects of message passing with each other using a regularizer to force the global topological information to be inline with the local message passing at different scales through the representations at different layers of HGP. Experimental results on some graph classification benchmarks show that it slightly outperforms some baselines.

Using risky text prompts, such as pornography and violent prompts, to test the safety of text-to-image (T2I) models is a critical task. However, existing risky prompt datasets are limited in three key areas: 1) limited risky categories, 2) coarse-grained annotation, and 3) low effectiveness. To address these limitations, we introduce T2I-RiskyPrompt, a comprehensive benchmark designed for evaluating safety-related tasks in T2I models. Specifically, we first develop a hierarchical risk taxonomy, which consists of 6 primary categories and 14 fine-grained subcategories. Building upon this taxonomy, we construct a pipeline to collect and annotate risky prompts. Finally, we obtain 6,432 effective risky prompts, where each prompt is annotated with both hierarchical category labels and detailed risk reasons. Moreover, to facilitate the evaluation, we propose a reason-driven risky image detection method that explicitly aligns the MLLM with safety annotations. Based on T2I-RiskyPrompt, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of eight T2I models, nine defense methods, five safety filters, and five attack strategies, offering nine key insights into the strengths and limitations of T2I model safety. Finally, we discuss potential applications of T2I-RiskyPrompt across various research fields. The dataset and code are provided in https://github.com/datar001/T2I-RiskyPrompt.

Accurately predicting stock market movements remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent volatility and complex interdependencies among stocks. Although multi-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) hold potential for modeling these relationships, they frequently neglect two key points: the subtle intra-attribute patterns within each stock affecting inter-stock correlation, and the biased attention to coarse- and fine-grained features during multi-scale sampling. To overcome these challenges, we introduce MS-HGFN (Multi-Scale Hierarchical Graph Fusion Network). The model features a hierarchical GNN module that forms dynamic graphs by learning patterns from intra-attributes and features from inter-attributes over different time scales, thus comprehensively capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Additionally, a top-down gating approach facilitates the integration of multi-scale spatio-temporal features, preserving critical coarse- and fine-grained features without too much interference. Experiments utilizing real-world datasets from U.S. and Chinese stock markets demonstrate that MS-HGFN outperforms both traditional and advanced models, yielding up to a 1.4% improvement in prediction accuracy and enhanced stability in return simulations. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MS-HGFN.

The surging demand for cloud computing resources, driven by the rapid growth of sophisticated large-scale models and data centers, underscores the critical importance of efficient and adaptive resource allocation. As major tech enterprises deploy massive infrastructures with thousands of GPUs, existing cloud platforms still struggle with low resource utilization due to key challenges: capturing hierarchical indicator structures, modeling non-Gaussian distributions, and decision-making under uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose HRAMONY, an adaptive Hierarchical Attention-based Resource Modeling and Decision-Making System. HARMONY combines hierarchical multi-indicator distribution forecasting and uncertainty-aware Bayesian decision-making. It introduces a novel hierarchical attention mechanism that comprehensively models complex inter-indicator dependencies, enabling accurate predictions that can adapt to evolving environment states. By transforming Gaussian projections into adaptive non-Gaussian distributions via Normalizing Flows. Crucially, HARMONY leverages the full predictive distributions in an adaptive Bayesian process, proactively incorporating uncertainties to optimize resource allocation while robustly meeting SLA constraints under varying conditions. Extensive evaluations across four large-scale cloud datasets demonstrate HARMONY's state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming nine established methods. A month-long real-world deployment validated HARMONY's substantial practical impact, realizing over 35,000 GPU hours in savings and translating to $100K+ in cost reduction, showcasing its remarkable economic value through adaptive, uncertainty-aware scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Floating-LY/HARMONY1.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

There has been increasing interest in modeling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian hierarchical deep neural networks model for modeling and prediction of survival data. Compared with previously studied methods, the new proposal can provide not only point estimate of survival probability but also quantification of the corresponding uncertainty, which can be of crucial importance in predictive modeling and subsequent decision making. The favorable statistical properties of point and uncertainty estimates were demonstrated by simulation studies and real data analysis. The Python code implementing the proposed approach was provided.

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based on a rigorous theoretical framework and establish validity and effectiveness. Simulations demonstrate consistent outperformance relative to existing alternatives in terms of predictive accuracy. We perform a long-term GaR analysis that provides accurate and insightful predictions, effectively capturing financial anomalies better than current methods.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

We focus on a simple, one-dimensional collective decision problem (often referred to as the facility location problem) and explore issues of strategyproofness and proportionality-based fairness. We introduce and analyze a hierarchy of proportionality-based fairness axioms of varying strength: Individual Fair Share (IFS), Unanimous Fair Share (UFS), Proportionality (as in Freeman et al, 2021), and Proportional Fairness (PF). For each axiom, we characterize the family of mechanisms that satisfy the axiom and strategyproofness. We show that imposing strategyproofness renders many of the axioms to be equivalent: the family of mechanisms that satisfy proportionality, unanimity, and strategyproofness is equivalent to the family of mechanisms that satisfy UFS and strategyproofness, which, in turn, is equivalent to the family of mechanisms that satisfy PF and strategyproofness. Furthermore, there is a unique such mechanism: the Uniform Phantom mechanism, which is studied in Freeman et al. (2021). We also characterize the outcomes of the Uniform Phantom mechanism as the unique (pure) equilibrium outcome for any mechanism that satisfies continuity, strict monotonicity, and UFS. Finally, we analyze the approximation guarantees, in terms of optimal social welfare and minimum total cost, obtained by mechanisms that are strategyproof and satisfy each proportionality-based fairness axiom. We show that the Uniform Phantom mechanism provides the best approximation of the optimal social welfare (and also minimum total cost) among all mechanisms that satisfy UFS.

E-commerce risk management requires aggregating diverse, deeply embedded web data through multi-step, stateful interactions, which traditional scraping methods and most existing Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents cannot handle. These agents are typically limited to single-step tasks and lack the ability to manage dynamic, interactive content critical for effective risk assessment. To address this challenge, we introduce RISK, a novel framework designed to build and deploy GUI agents for this domain. RISK integrates three components: (1) RISK-Data, a dataset of 8,492 single-step and 2,386 multi-step interaction trajectories, collected through a high-fidelity browser framework and a meticulous data curation process; (2) RISK-Bench, a benchmark with 802 single-step and 320 multi-step trajectories across three difficulty levels for standardized evaluation; and (3) RISK-R1, a R1-style reinforcement fine-tuning framework considering four aspects: (i) Output Format Constraint, (ii) Single-step and (iii) Multi-step Level Reward, and (iv) Task Level Reweight. Experiments show that RISK-R1 achieves a 6.8% improvement in offline single-step and an 8.8% improvement in offline multi-step, using only 7.2% of the parameters of the SOTA baseline. Moreover, it attains a top task success rate of 70.5% in online evaluation. RISK provides a scalable, domain-specific solution for automating complex web interactions in e-commerce risk management. The code is available at https://github.com/RenqiChen/RISK-GUI.

Identifying risky traders with high profits in financial markets is crucial for market makers, such as trading exchanges, to ensure effective risk management through real-time decisions on regulation compliance and hedging. However, capturing the complex and dynamic behaviours of individual traders poses significant challenges. Traditional classification and anomaly detection methods often establish a fixed risk boundary, failing to account for this complexity and dynamism. To tackle this issue, we propose a profit-aware risk ranker (PA-RiskRanker) that reframes the problem of identifying risky traders as a ranking task using Learning-to-Rank (LETOR) algorithms. Our approach features a Profit-Aware binary cross entropy (PA-BCE) loss function and a transformer-based ranker enhanced with a self-cross-trader attention pipeline. These components effectively integrate profit and loss (P&L) considerations into the training process while capturing intra- and inter-trader relationships. Our research critically examines the limitations of existing deep learning-based LETOR algorithms in trading risk management, which often overlook the importance of P&L in financial scenarios. By prioritising P&L, our method improves risky trader identification, achieving an 8.4% increase in F1 score compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) ranking models like Rankformer. Additionally, it demonstrates a 10%-17% increase in average profit compared to all benchmark models.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi), a financial ecosystem without centralized controlling organization, has introduced a new paradigm for lending and borrowing. However, its capital efficiency remains constrained by the inability to effectively assess the risk associated with each user/wallet. This paper introduces the 'On-Chain Credit Risk Score (OCCR Score) in DeFi', a probabilistic measure designed to quantify the credit risk associated with a wallet. By analyzing historical real-time on-chain activity as well as predictive scenarios, the OCCR Score may enable DeFi lending protocols to dynamically adjust Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratios and Liquidation Thresholds (LT) based on the risk profile of a wallet. Unlike existing wallet risk scoring models, which rely on heuristic-based evaluations, the OCCR Score offers a more objective and probabilistic approach, aligning closer to traditional credit risk assessment methodologies. This framework can further enhance DeFi's capital efficiency by incentivizing responsible borrowing behavior and optimizing risk-adjusted returns for lenders.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically evaluated for safety under single-shot or low-budget adversarial prompting, which underestimates real-world risk. In practice, attackers can exploit large-scale parallel sampling to repeatedly probe a model until a harmful response is produced. While recent work shows that attack success increases with repeated sampling, principled methods for predicting large-scale adversarial risk remain limited. We propose a scaling-aware Best-of-N estimation of risk, SABER, for modeling jailbreak vulnerability under Best-of-N sampling. We model sample-level success probabilities using a Beta distribution, the conjugate prior of the Bernoulli distribution, and derive an analytic scaling law that enables reliable extrapolation of large-N attack success rates from small-budget measurements. Using only n=100 samples, our anchored estimator predicts ASR@1000 with a mean absolute error of 1.66, compared to 12.04 for the baseline, which is an 86.2% reduction in estimation error. Our results reveal heterogeneous risk scaling profiles and show that models appearing robust under standard evaluation can experience rapid nonlinear risk amplification under parallel adversarial pressure. This work provides a low-cost, scalable methodology for realistic LLM safety assessment. We will release our code and evaluation scripts upon publication to future research.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied in mental health support systems, where reliable recognition of high-risk states such as suicidal ideation and self-harm is safety-critical. However, existing evaluations primarily rely on aggregate performance metrics, which often obscure risk-specific failure modes and provide limited insight into model behavior in realistic, multi-turn interactions. We present MHDash, an open-source platform designed to support the development, evaluation, and auditing of AI systems for mental health applications. MHDash integrates data collection, structured annotation, multi-turn dialogue generation, and baseline evaluation into a unified pipeline. The platform supports annotations across multiple dimensions, including Concern Type, Risk Level, and Dialogue Intent, enabling fine-grained and risk-aware analysis. Our results reveal several key findings: (i) simple baselines and advanced LLM APIs exhibit comparable overall accuracy yet diverge significantly on high-risk cases; (ii) some LLMs maintain consistent ordinal severity ranking while failing absolute risk classification, whereas others achieve reasonable aggregate scores but suffer from high false negative rates on severe categories; and (iii) performance gaps are amplified in multi-turn dialogues, where risk signals emerge gradually. These observations demonstrate that conventional benchmarks are insufficient for safety-critical mental health settings. By releasing MHDash as an open platform, we aim to promote reproducible research, transparent evaluation, and safety-aligned development of AI systems for mental health support.

Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

There is a recently discovered and intriguing phenomenon called Neural Collapse: at the terminal phase of training a deep neural network for classification, the within-class penultimate feature means and the associated classifier vectors of all flat classes collapse to the vertices of a simplex Equiangular Tight Frame (ETF). Recent work has tried to exploit this phenomenon by fixing the related classifier weights to a pre-computed ETF to induce neural collapse and maximize the separation of the learned features when training with imbalanced data. In this work, we propose to fix the linear classifier of a deep neural network to a Hierarchy-Aware Frame (HAFrame), instead of an ETF, and use a cosine similarity-based auxiliary loss to learn hierarchy-aware penultimate features that collapse to the HAFrame. We demonstrate that our approach reduces the mistake severity of the model's predictions while maintaining its top-1 accuracy on several datasets of varying scales with hierarchies of heights ranging from 3 to 12. Code: https://github.com/ltong1130ztr/HAFrame

Recent studies show that Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong reasoning capabilities through supervised fine-tuning or reinforcement learning. However, a key approach, the Process Reward Model (PRM), suffers from reward hacking, making it unreliable in identifying the best intermediate steps. In this paper, we propose a novel reward model approach, Hierarchical Reward Model (HRM), which evaluates both individual and consecutive reasoning steps from fine-grained and coarse-grained level. HRM performs better in assessing reasoning coherence and self-reflection, particularly when the previous reasoning step is incorrect. Furthermore, to address the inefficiency of autonomous generating PRM training data via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), we introduce a lightweight and effective data augmentation strategy called Hierarchical Node Compression (HNC) based on node merging (combining two consecutive reasoning steps into one step) in the tree structure. This approach diversifies MCTS results for HRM with negligible computational overhead, enhancing label robustness by introducing noise. Empirical results on the PRM800K dataset demonstrate that HRM, in conjunction with HNC, achieves superior stability and reliability in evaluation compared to PRM. Furthermore, cross-domain evaluations on MATH500 and GSM8K confirm HRM's superior generalization and robustness across diverse reasoning tasks. The code for all experiments will be released at https: //github.com/tengwang0318/hierarchial_reward_model.

High-frequency trading (HFT) that executes algorithmic trading in short time scales, has recently occupied the majority of cryptocurrency market. Besides traditional quantitative trading methods, reinforcement learning (RL) has become another appealing approach for HFT due to its terrific ability of handling high-dimensional financial data and solving sophisticated sequential decision-making problems, e.g., hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) has shown its promising performance on second-level HFT by training a router to select only one sub-agent from the agent pool to execute the current transaction. However, existing RL methods for HFT still have some defects: 1) standard RL-based trading agents suffer from the overfitting issue, preventing them from making effective policy adjustments based on financial context; 2) due to the rapid changes in market conditions, investment decisions made by an individual agent are usually one-sided and highly biased, which might lead to significant loss in extreme markets. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement learning method On HFT, a.k.a. MacroHFT, which consists of two training phases: 1) we first train multiple types of sub-agents with the market data decomposed according to various financial indicators, specifically market trend and volatility, where each agent owns a conditional adapter to adjust its trading policy according to market conditions; 2) then we train a hyper-agent to mix the decisions from these sub-agents and output a consistently profitable meta-policy to handle rapid market fluctuations, equipped with a memory mechanism to enhance the capability of decision-making. Extensive experiments on various cryptocurrency markets demonstrate that MacroHFT can achieve state-of-the-art performance on minute-level trading tasks.

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

Benchmarks shape scientific conclusions about model capabilities and steer model development. This creates a feedback loop: stronger benchmarks drive better models, and better models demand more discriminative benchmarks. Ensuring benchmark reliability is therefore essential for trustworthy evaluation and meaningful progress. In this work, we study benchmark reliability from a distributional perspective and introduce benchmark harmony, which measures how uniformly a model's performance is distributed across the subdomains of a benchmark. We posit that high harmony is a desirable benchmark property, indicating that the aggregate metric reflects uniform competence across subdomains. Across 19 multiple-choice benchmarks and five model families, we map each benchmark onto a mean-variance plane of harmony computed across models, where high mean and low variance signal more reliable evaluation. Our analysis shows that less harmonious benchmarks can give misleading results, since overall accuracy may be disproportionately influenced by specific subdomains. For instance, ARC-Easy is overwhelmed by questions on Biological Concepts, overshadowing other critical subdomains such as Geography, Physics, Chemistry, and Environmental Science. By recommending that harmony should be reported alongside accuracy, we reframe evaluation from simple performance averages to a more robust, distributionally reliable measurement of performance.

Risk disclosures in SEC filings describe potential adverse events but rarely quantify their likelihood, limiting their usefulness for probabilistic analysis. A central obstacle is the absence of large-scale, risk-level supervision linking disclosed risks to realized outcomes. We introduce a fully automated data generation pipeline that converts qualitative SEC risk disclosures into temporally grounded supervision using only public data. For each filing, the pipeline generates firm-specific, time-bounded risk queries from the Risk Factors section and labels them by automatically resolving outcomes against subsequent disclosures. Using this dataset of risk queries and outcomes grounded in SEC filings, we train a compact large language model to estimate the probability that a disclosed risk will materialize within a specified horizon. Despite its modest size, the resulting model substantially improves over pretrained and heuristic baselines, and outperforms frontier general-purpose models, including GPT-5, on probabilistic accuracy and calibration. More broadly, this work demonstrates that Foresight Learning enables scalable and fully automated training of domain-specific expert models using only raw, chronological, in-domain text -- without proprietary data, external corpora, or manual annotation. The resulting models achieve frontier-level performance while remaining deployable on a single GPU. This result suggests a general pathway for learning calibrated, decision-relevant signals from naturally occurring enterprise documents. To support transparency and reproducibility, we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study. Evaluation Data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/sec_risk_questions_test_set Data Generation Platform: https://lightningrod.ai/ SDK: https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk

Hierarchical Text Classification (HTC) aims to assign texts to structured label hierarchies; however, it faces challenges due to data scarcity and model complexity. This study explores the feasibility of using black box Large Language Models (LLMs) accessed via APIs for HTC, as an alternative to traditional machine learning methods that require extensive labeled data and computational resources. We evaluate three prompting strategies -- Direct Leaf Label Prediction (DL), Direct Hierarchical Label Prediction (DH), and Top-down Multi-step Hierarchical Label Prediction (TMH) -- in both zero-shot and few-shot settings, comparing the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies. Experiments on two datasets show that a few-shot setting consistently improves classification accuracy compared to a zero-shot setting. While a traditional machine learning model achieves high accuracy on a dataset with a shallow hierarchy, LLMs, especially DH strategy, tend to outperform the machine learning model on a dataset with a deeper hierarchy. API costs increase significantly due to the higher input tokens required for deeper label hierarchies on DH strategy. These results emphasize the trade-off between accuracy improvement and the computational cost of prompt strategy. These findings highlight the potential of black box LLMs for HTC while underscoring the need to carefully select a prompt strategy to balance performance and cost.

Ensuring the safety of LLM-generated content is essential for real-world deployment. Most existing guardrail models formulate moderation as a fixed binary classification task, implicitly assuming a fixed definition of harmfulness. In practice, enforcement strictness - how conservatively harmfulness is defined and enforced - varies across platforms and evolves over time, making binary moderators brittle under shifting requirements. We first introduce FlexBench, a strictness-adaptive LLM moderation benchmark that enables controlled evaluation under multiple strictness regimes. Experiments on FlexBench reveal substantial cross-strictness inconsistency in existing moderators: models that perform well under one regime can degrade substantially under others, limiting their practical usability. To address this, we propose FlexGuard, an LLM-based moderator that outputs a calibrated continuous risk score reflecting risk severity and supports strictness-specific decisions via thresholding. We train FlexGuard via risk-alignment optimization to improve score-severity consistency and provide practical threshold selection strategies to adapt to target strictness at deployment. Experiments on FlexBench and public benchmarks demonstrate that FlexGuard achieves higher moderation accuracy and substantially improved robustness under varying strictness. We release the source code and data to support reproducibility.

Autonomous language-model agents increasingly rely on installable skills and tools to complete user tasks. Static skill auditing can expose capability surface before deployment, but it cannot determine whether a particular invocation is unsafe under the current user request and runtime context. We therefore study skill invocation auditing as a continuous-risk estimation problem: given a user request, candidate skill, and runtime context, predict a score that supports ranking and triage before a hard intervention is applied. We introduce STARS, which combines a static capability prior, a request-conditioned invocation risk model, and a calibrated risk-fusion policy. To evaluate this setting, we construct SIA-Bench, a benchmark of 3,000 invocation records with group-safe splits, lineage metadata, runtime context, canonical action labels, and derived continuous-risk targets. On a held-out split of indirect prompt injection attacks, calibrated fusion reaches 0.439 high-risk AUPRC, improving over 0.405 for the contextual scorer and 0.380 for the strongest static baseline, while the contextual scorer remains better calibrated with 0.289 expected calibration error. On the locked in-distribution test split, gains are smaller and static priors remain useful. The resulting claim is therefore narrower: request-conditioned auditing is most valuable as an invocation-time risk-scoring and triage layer rather than as a replacement for static screening. Code is available at https://github.com/123zgj123/STARS.

Large language models trained for safety and harmlessness remain susceptible to adversarial misuse, as evidenced by the prevalence of "jailbreak" attacks on early releases of ChatGPT that elicit undesired behavior. Going beyond recognition of the issue, we investigate why such attacks succeed and how they can be created. We hypothesize two failure modes of safety training: competing objectives and mismatched generalization. Competing objectives arise when a model's capabilities and safety goals conflict, while mismatched generalization occurs when safety training fails to generalize to a domain for which capabilities exist. We use these failure modes to guide jailbreak design and then evaluate state-of-the-art models, including OpenAI's GPT-4 and Anthropic's Claude v1.3, against both existing and newly designed attacks. We find that vulnerabilities persist despite the extensive red-teaming and safety-training efforts behind these models. Notably, new attacks utilizing our failure modes succeed on every prompt in a collection of unsafe requests from the models' red-teaming evaluation sets and outperform existing ad hoc jailbreaks. Our analysis emphasizes the need for safety-capability parity -- that safety mechanisms should be as sophisticated as the underlying model -- and argues against the idea that scaling alone can resolve these safety failure modes.

Training LLMs as interactive agents for multi-turn decision-making remains challenging, particularly in long-horizon tasks with sparse and delayed rewards, where agents must execute extended sequences of actions before receiving meaningful feedback. Most existing reinforcement learning (RL) approaches model LLM agents as flat policies operating at a single time scale, selecting one action at each turn. In sparse-reward settings, such flat policies must propagate credit across the entire trajectory without explicit temporal abstraction, which often leads to unstable optimization and inefficient credit assignment. We propose HiPER, a novel Hierarchical Plan-Execute RL framework that explicitly separates high-level planning from low-level execution. HiPER factorizes the policy into a high-level planner that proposes subgoals and a low-level executor that carries them out over multiple action steps. To align optimization with this structure, we introduce a key technique called hierarchical advantage estimation (HAE), which carefully assigns credit at both the planning and execution levels. By aggregating returns over the execution of each subgoal and coordinating updates across the two levels, HAE provides an unbiased gradient estimator and provably reduces variance compared to flat generalized advantage estimation. Empirically, HiPER achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging interactive benchmarks, reaching 97.4\% success on ALFWorld and 83.3\% on WebShop with Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct (+6.6\% and +8.3\% over the best prior method), with especially large gains on long-horizon tasks requiring multiple dependent subtasks. These results highlight the importance of explicit hierarchical decomposition for scalable RL training of multi-turn LLM agents.

Vaccine supply chain optimization can benefit from hierarchical time series forecasting, when grouping the vaccines by type or location. However, forecasts of different hierarchy levels become incoherent when higher levels do not match the sum of the lower levels forecasts, which can be addressed by reconciliation methods. In this paper, we tackle the vaccine sale forecasting problem by modeling sales data from GSK between 2010 and 2021 as a hierarchical time series. After forecasting future values with several ARIMA models, we systematically compare the performance of various reconciliation methods, using statistical tests. We also compare the performance of the forecast before and after COVID. The results highlight Minimum Trace and Weighted Least Squares with Structural scaling as the best performing methods, which provided a coherent forecast while reducing the forecast error of the baseline ARIMA.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

Over the past decade, Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNNs) have shown remarkable performance in most computer vision tasks. These tasks traditionally use a fixed dataset, and the model, once trained, is deployed as is. Adding new information to such a model presents a challenge due to complex training issues, such as "catastrophic forgetting", and sensitivity to hyper-parameter tuning. However, in this modern world, data is constantly evolving, and our deep learning models are required to adapt to these changes. In this paper, we propose an adaptive hierarchical network structure composed of DCNNs that can grow and learn as new data becomes available. The network grows in a tree-like fashion to accommodate new classes of data, while preserving the ability to distinguish the previously trained classes. The network organizes the incrementally available data into feature-driven super-classes and improves upon existing hierarchical CNN models by adding the capability of self-growth. The proposed hierarchical model, when compared against fine-tuning a deep network, achieves significant reduction of training effort, while maintaining competitive accuracy on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100.

State-of-the-art text-to-image diffusion models (DMs) achieve remarkable quality, yet their massive parameter scale (8-11B) poses significant challenges for inferences on resource-constrained devices. In this paper, we present HierarchicalPrune, a novel compression framework grounded in a key observation: DM blocks exhibit distinct functional hierarchies, where early blocks establish semantic structures while later blocks handle texture refinements. HierarchicalPrune synergistically combines three techniques: (1) Hierarchical Position Pruning, which identifies and removes less essential later blocks based on position hierarchy; (2) Positional Weight Preservation, which systematically protects early model portions that are essential for semantic structural integrity; and (3) Sensitivity-Guided Distillation, which adjusts knowledge-transfer intensity based on our discovery of block-wise sensitivity variations. As a result, our framework brings billion-scale diffusion models into a range more suitable for on-device inference, while preserving the quality of the output images. Specifically, when combined with INT4 weight quantisation, HierarchicalPrune achieves 77.5-80.4% memory footprint reduction (e.g., from 15.8 GB to 3.2 GB) and 27.9-38.0% latency reduction, measured on server and consumer grade GPUs, with the minimum drop of 2.6% in GenEval score and 7% in HPSv2 score compared to the original model. Last but not least, our comprehensive user study with 85 participants demonstrates that HierarchicalPrune maintains perceptual quality comparable to the original model while significantly outperforming prior works.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

Physics education researchers (PER) often analyze student data with single-level regression models (e.g., linear and logistic regression). However, education datasets can have hierarchical structures, such as students nested within courses, that single-level models fail to account for. The improper use of single-level models to analyze hierarchical datasets can lead to biased findings. Hierarchical models (a.k.a., multi-level models) account for this hierarchical nested structure in the data. In this publication, we outline the theoretical differences between how single-level and multi-level models handle hierarchical datasets. We then present analysis of a dataset from 112 introductory physics courses using both multiple linear regression and hierarchical linear modeling to illustrate the potential impact of using an inappropriate analytical method on PER findings and implications. Research can leverage multi-institutional datasets to improve the field's understanding of how to support student success in physics. There is no post hoc fix, however, if researchers use inappropriate single-level models to analyze multi-level datasets. To continue developing reliable and generalizable knowledge, PER should use hierarchical models when analyzing hierarchical datasets. The supplemental materials include a sample dataset, R code to model the building and analysis presented in the paper, and an HTML output from the R code.

Hierarchical text classification (HTC) is the task of assigning labels to a text within a structured space organized as a hierarchy. Recent works treat HTC as a conventional multilabel classification problem, therefore evaluating it as such. We instead propose to evaluate models based on specifically designed hierarchical metrics and we demonstrate the intricacy of metric choice and prediction inference method. We introduce a new challenging dataset and we evaluate fairly, recent sophisticated models, comparing them with a range of simple but strong baselines, including a new theoretically motivated loss. Finally, we show that those baselines are very often competitive with the latest models. This highlights the importance of carefully considering the evaluation methodology when proposing new methods for HTC. Code implementation and dataset are available at https://github.com/RomanPlaud/revisitingHTC.

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events recurrence risk in acute myocardial infarction patients based on postoperative cardiac MRI and associated clinical notes is crucial for precision treatment and personalized intervention. Existing methods primarily focus on risk stratification capability while overlooking the need for intermediate robust reasoning and model interpretability in clinical practice. Moreover, end-to-end risk prediction using LLM/VLM faces significant challenges due to data limitations and modeling complexity. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioCoT, a novel two-stage hierarchical reasoning-enhanced survival analysis framework designed to enhance both model interpretability and predictive performance. In the first stage, we employ an evidence-augmented self-refinement mechanism to guide LLM/VLMs in generating robust hierarchical reasoning trajectories based on associated radiological findings. In the second stage, we integrate the reasoning trajectories with imaging data for risk model training and prediction. CardioCoT demonstrates superior performance in MACE recurrence risk prediction while providing interpretable reasoning processes, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

Clustering is a fundamental building block of modern statistical analysis pipelines. Fair clustering has seen much attention from the machine learning community in recent years. We are some of the first to study fairness in the context of hierarchical clustering, after the results of Ahmadian et al. from NeurIPS in 2020. We evaluate our results using Dasgupta's cost function, perhaps one of the most prevalent theoretical metrics for hierarchical clustering evaluation. Our work vastly improves the previous O(n^{5/6}polylog(n)) fair approximation for cost to a near polylogarithmic O(n^delta polylog(n)) fair approximation for any constant deltain(0,1). This result establishes a cost-fairness tradeoff and extends to broader fairness constraints than the previous work. We also show how to alter existing hierarchical clusterings to guarantee fairness and cluster balance across any level in the hierarchy.

In the field of algorithmic fairness, significant attention has been put on group fairness criteria, such as Demographic Parity and Equalized Odds. Nevertheless, these objectives, measured as global averages, have raised concerns about persistent local disparities between sensitive groups. In this work, we address the problem of local fairness, which ensures that the predictor is unbiased not only in terms of expectations over the whole population, but also within any subregion of the feature space, unknown at training time. To enforce this objective, we introduce ROAD, a novel approach that leverages the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework within a fair adversarial learning objective, where an adversary tries to infer the sensitive attribute from the predictions. Using an instance-level re-weighting strategy, ROAD is designed to prioritize inputs that are likely to be locally unfair, i.e. where the adversary faces the least difficulty in reconstructing the sensitive attribute. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: it achieves Pareto dominance with respect to local fairness and accuracy for a given global fairness level across three standard datasets, and also enhances fairness generalization under distribution shift.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bias where some individuals/subgroups can be worse off than under simply optimizing for accuracy. For instance, a classifier implementing race-based parity may significantly disadvantage women of the advantaged race. To quantify this bias, we propose a general notion of eta-infra-marginality that can be used to evaluate the extent of this bias. We prove theoretically that, unlike other fairness metrics, infra-marginality does not have a trade-off with accuracy: high accuracy directly leads to low infra-marginality. This observation is confirmed through empirical analysis on multiple simulated and real-world datasets. Further, we find that maximizing group fairness often increases infra-marginality, suggesting the consideration of both group-level fairness and individual-level infra-marginality. However, measuring infra-marginality requires knowledge of the true distribution of individual-level outcomes correctly and explicitly. We propose a practical method to measure infra-marginality, and a simple algorithm to maximize group-wise accuracy and avoid infra-marginality.

As large language models (LLMs) become high-privilege agents in risk-sensitive settings, they introduce systemic threats beyond hallucination, where minor compliance errors can cause critical data leaks. However, existing benchmarks focus on rule-based QA, lacking agentic execution modeling, overlooking compliance drift in adversarial interactions, and relying on binary safety metrics that fail to capture behavioral degradation. To bridge these gaps, we present CNFinBench, a comprehensive benchmark spanning 29 subtasks grounded in the triad of expertise, autonomy, and integrity. It assesses domain-specific capabilities through certified regulatory corpora and professional financial tasks, reconstructs end-to-end agent workflows from requirement parsing to tool verification, and simulates multi-turn adversarial attacks that induce behavioral compliance drift. To quantify safety degradation, we introduce the Harmful Instruction Compliance Score (HICS), a multi-dimensional safety metric that integrates risk-type-specific deductions, multi-turn consistency tracking, and severity-adjusted penalty scaling based on fine-grained violation triggers. Evaluations over 22 open-/closed-source models reveal: LLMs perform well in applied tasks yet lack robust rule understanding, suffer a 15.4-point drop single modules to full execution chains, and collapse rapidly in multi-turn attacks, with average violations surging by 172.3% in Round 2. CNFinBench is available at https://cnfinbench.opencompass.org.cn and https://github.com/VertiAIBench/CNFinBench.

Contemporary AGI evaluations report multidomain capability profiles, yet they typically assign symmetric weights and rely on snapshot scores. This creates two problems: (i) equal weighting treats all domains as equally important when human intelligence research suggests otherwise, and (ii) snapshot testing can't distinguish durable capabilities from brittle performances that collapse under delay or stress. I argue that general intelligence -- in humans and potentially in machines -- is better understood as a homeostatic property cluster: a set of abilities plus the mechanisms that keep those abilities co-present under perturbation. On this view, AGI evaluation should weight domains by their causal centrality (their contribution to cluster stability) and require evidence of persistence across sessions. I propose two battery-compatible extensions: a centrality-prior score that imports CHC-derived weights with transparent sensitivity analysis, and a Cluster Stability Index family that separates profile persistence, durable learning, and error correction. These additions preserve multidomain breadth while reducing brittleness and gaming. I close with testable predictions and black-box protocols labs can adopt without architectural access.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

Hierarchical vision transformers (ViTs) have two advantages over conventional ViTs. First, hierarchical ViTs achieve linear computational complexity with respect to image size by local self-attention. Second, hierarchical ViTs create hierarchical feature maps by merging image patches in deeper layers for dense prediction. However, existing pruning methods ignore the unique properties of hierarchical ViTs and use the magnitude value as the weight importance. This approach leads to two main drawbacks. First, the "local" attention weights are compared at a "global" level, which may cause some "locally" important weights to be pruned due to their relatively small magnitude "globally". The second issue with magnitude pruning is that it fails to consider the distinct weight distributions of the network, which are essential for extracting coarse to fine-grained features at various hierarchical levels. To solve the aforementioned issues, we have developed a Data-independent Module-Aware Pruning method (DIMAP) to compress hierarchical ViTs. To ensure that "local" attention weights at different hierarchical levels are compared fairly in terms of their contribution, we treat them as a module and examine their contribution by analyzing their information distortion. Furthermore, we introduce a novel weight metric that is solely based on weights and does not require input images, thereby eliminating the dependence on the patch merging process. Our method validates its usefulness and strengths on Swin Transformers of different sizes on ImageNet-1k classification. Notably, the top-5 accuracy drop is only 0.07% when we remove 52.5% FLOPs and 52.7% parameters of Swin-B. When we reduce 33.2% FLOPs and 33.2% parameters of Swin-S, we can even achieve a 0.8% higher relative top-5 accuracy than the original model. Code is available at: https://github.com/he-y/Data-independent-Module-Aware-Pruning

This paper presents a novel hierarchical framework for portfolio optimization, integrating lightweight Large Language Models (LLMs) with Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to combine sentiment signals from financial news with traditional market indicators. Our three-tier architecture employs base RL agents to process hybrid data, meta-agents to aggregate their decisions, and a super-agent to merge decisions based on market data and sentiment analysis. Evaluated on data from 2018 to 2024, after training on 2000-2017, the framework achieves a 26% annualized return and a Sharpe ratio of 1.2, outperforming equal-weighted and S&P 500 benchmarks. Key contributions include scalable cross-modal integration, a hierarchical RL structure for enhanced stability, and open-source reproducibility.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in financial reasoning and market understanding. Multi-agent LLM frameworks such as TradingAgent and FINMEM augment these models to long-horizon investment tasks, leveraging fundamental and sentiment-based inputs for strategic decision-making. However, such systems are ill-suited for the high-speed, precision-critical demands of High-Frequency Trading (HFT). HFT requires rapid, risk-aware decisions based on structured, short-horizon signals, including technical indicators, chart patterns, and trend-based features, distinct from the long-term semantic reasoning typical of traditional financial LLM applications. To this end, we introduce QuantAgent, the first multi-agent LLM framework explicitly designed for high-frequency algorithmic trading. The system decomposes trading into four specialized agents, Indicator, Pattern, Trend, and Risk, each equipped with domain-specific tools and structured reasoning capabilities to capture distinct aspects of market dynamics over short temporal windows. In zero-shot evaluations across ten financial instruments, including Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures, QuantAgent demonstrates superior performance in both predictive accuracy and cumulative return over 4-hour trading intervals, outperforming strong neural and rule-based baselines. Our findings suggest that combining structured financial priors with language-native reasoning unlocks new potential for traceable, real-time decision systems in high-frequency financial markets.

With the rapid evolution of Large Language Model (LLM) agent ecosystems, centralized skill marketplaces have emerged as pivotal infrastructure for augmenting agent capabilities. However, these marketplaces face unprecedented security challenges, primarily stemming from semantic-behavioral inconsistency and inter-skill combinatorial risks, where individually benign skills induce malicious behaviors during collaborative invocation. To address these vulnerabilities, we propose SkillProbe, a multi-stage security auditing framework driven by multi-agent collaboration. SkillProbe introduces a "Skills-for-Skills" design paradigm, encapsulating auditing processes into standardized skill modules to drive specialized agents through a rigorous pipeline, including admission filtering, semantic-behavioral alignment detection, and combinatorial risk simulation. We conducted a large-scale evaluation using 8 mainstream LLM series across 2,500 real-world skills from ClawHub. Our results reveal a striking popularity-security paradox, where download volume is not a reliable proxy for security quality, as over 90% of high-popularity skills failed to pass rigorous auditing. Crucially, we discovered that high-risk skills form a single giant connected component within the risk-link dimension, demonstrating that cascaded risks are systemic rather than isolated occurrences. We hope that SkillProbe will inspire researchers to provide a scalable governance infrastructure for constructing a trustworthy Agentic Web. SkillProbe is accessible for public experience at skillhub.holosai.io.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications, safety guardrails are required to go beyond coarse-grained filtering and support fine-grained, interpretable, and adaptable risk assessment. However, existing solutions often rely on rapid classification schemes or post-hoc rules, resulting in limited transparency, inflexible policies, or prohibitive inference costs. To this end, we present YuFeng-XGuard, a reasoning-centric guardrail model family designed to perform multi-dimensional risk perception for LLM interactions. Instead of producing opaque binary judgments, YuFeng-XGuard generates structured risk predictions, including explicit risk categories and configurable confidence scores, accompanied by natural language explanations that expose the underlying reasoning process. This formulation enables safety decisions that are both actionable and interpretable. To balance decision latency and explanatory depth, we adopt a tiered inference paradigm that performs an initial risk decision based on the first decoded token, while preserving ondemand explanatory reasoning when required. In addition, we introduce a dynamic policy mechanism that decouples risk perception from policy enforcement, allowing safety policies to be adjusted without model retraining. Extensive experiments on a diverse set of public safety benchmarks demonstrate that YuFeng-XGuard achieves stateof-the-art performance while maintaining strong efficiency-efficacy trade-offs. We release YuFeng-XGuard as an open model family, including both a full-capacity variant and a lightweight version, to support a wide range of deployment scenarios.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has proven highly effective at enhancing the complex reasoning abilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet underlying mechanisms driving this success remain largely opaque. Our analysis reveals that puzzling phenomena like ``aha moments", ``length-scaling'' and entropy dynamics are not disparate occurrences but hallmarks of an emergent reasoning hierarchy, akin to the separation of high-level strategic planning from low-level procedural execution in human cognition. We uncover a compelling two-phase dynamic: initially, a model is constrained by procedural correctness and must improve its low-level skills. The learning bottleneck then decisively shifts, with performance gains being driven by the exploration and mastery of high-level strategic planning. This insight exposes a core inefficiency in prevailing RL algorithms like GRPO, which apply optimization pressure agnostically and dilute the learning signal across all tokens. To address this, we propose HIerarchy-Aware Credit Assignment (HICRA), an algorithm that concentrates optimization efforts on high-impact planning tokens. HICRA significantly outperforms strong baselines, demonstrating that focusing on this strategic bottleneck is key to unlocking advanced reasoning. Furthermore, we validate semantic entropy as a superior compass for measuring strategic exploration over misleading metrics such as token-level entropy.

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly capable, it is prudent to assess whether safety measures remain effective even if LLMs intentionally try to bypass them. Previous work introduced control evaluations, an adversarial framework for testing deployment strategies of untrusted models (i.e., models which might be trying to bypass safety measures). While prior work treats a single failure as unacceptable, we perform control evaluations in a "distributed threat setting" -- a setting where no single action is catastrophic and no single action provides overwhelming evidence of misalignment. We approach this problem with a two-level deployment framework that uses an adaptive macro-protocol to choose between micro-protocols. Micro-protocols operate on a single task, using a less capable, but extensively tested (trusted) model to harness and monitor the untrusted model. Meanwhile, the macro-protocol maintains an adaptive credence on the untrusted model's alignment based on its past actions, using it to pick between safer and riskier micro-protocols. We evaluate our method in a code generation testbed where a red team attempts to generate subtly backdoored code with an LLM whose deployment is safeguarded by a blue team. We plot Pareto frontiers of safety (# of non-backdoored solutions) and usefulness (# of correct solutions). At a given level of usefulness, our adaptive deployment strategy reduces the number of backdoors by 80% compared to non-adaptive baselines.

In this paper, by introducing Generalized Bernstein condition, we propose the first Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big) high probability excess population risk bound for differentially private algorithms under the assumptions G-Lipschitz, L-smooth, and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition, based on gradient perturbation method. If we replace the properties G-Lipschitz and L-smooth by alpha-H{\"o}lder smoothness (which can be used in non-smooth setting), the high probability bound comes to Obig(n^{-alpha{1+2alpha}}big) w.r.t n, which cannot achieve Oleft(1/nright) when alphain(0,1]. To solve this problem, we propose a variant of gradient perturbation method, max{1,g-Normalized Gradient Perturbation} (m-NGP). We further show that by normalization, the high probability excess population risk bound under assumptions alpha-H{\"o}lder smooth and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition can achieve Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big), which is the first Oleft(1/nright) high probability excess population risk bound w.r.t n for differentially private algorithms under non-smooth conditions. Moreover, we evaluate the performance of the new proposed algorithm m-NGP, the experimental results show that m-NGP improves the performance of the differentially private model over real datasets. It demonstrates that m-NGP improves the utility bound and the accuracy of the DP model on real datasets simultaneously.

Through a systematic review of academic literature, we propose a taxonomy of systemic risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), in particular general-purpose AI. Following the EU AI Act's definition, we consider systemic risks as large-scale threats that can affect entire societies or economies. Starting with an initial pool of 1,781 documents, we analyzed 86 selected papers to identify 13 categories of systemic risks and 50 contributing sources. Our findings reveal a complex landscape of potential threats, ranging from environmental harm and structural discrimination to governance failures and loss of control. Key sources of systemic risk emerge from knowledge gaps, challenges in recognizing harm, and the unpredictable trajectory of AI development. The taxonomy provides a snapshot of current academic literature on systemic risks. This paper contributes to AI safety research by providing a structured groundwork for understanding and addressing the potential large-scale negative societal impacts of general-purpose AI. The taxonomy can inform policymakers in risk prioritization and regulatory development.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio tail losses through a latent factor structure and translated into a stressed CET1 ratio, jointly accounting for capital depletion and risk-weighted asset dynamics. Reverse stress testing is formulated as a constrained maximum likelihood problem over the scenario space. This yields a geopolitical point reverse stress test, or design point, defined as the most probable scenario that breaches a prescribed capital adequacy constraint under a reference distribution. The framework further characterises neighbourhoods and near optimal sets of reverse stress scenarios, allowing for sensitivity analysis and governance oriented interpretation. The approach is compatible with internal rating based models and supports implementation at the exposure or sector level.

Many practical applications, such as recommender systems and learning to rank, involve solving multiple similar tasks. One example is learning of recommendation policies for users with similar movie preferences, where the users may still rank the individual movies slightly differently. Such tasks can be organized in a hierarchy, where similar tasks are related through a shared structure. In this work, we formulate this problem as a contextual off-policy optimization in a hierarchical graphical model from logged bandit feedback. To solve the problem, we propose a hierarchical off-policy optimization algorithm (HierOPO), which estimates the parameters of the hierarchical model and then acts pessimistically with respect to them. We instantiate HierOPO in linear Gaussian models, for which we also provide an efficient implementation and analysis. We prove per-task bounds on the suboptimality of the learned policies, which show a clear improvement over not using the hierarchical model. We also evaluate the policies empirically. Our theoretical and empirical results show a clear advantage of using the hierarchy over solving each task independently.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked concerns over their potential to acquire and misuse dangerous or high-risk capabilities, posing frontier risks. Current safety evaluations primarily test for what a model can do - its capabilities - without assessing what it would do if endowed with high-risk capabilities. This leaves a critical blind spot: models may strategically conceal capabilities or rapidly acquire them, while harboring latent inclinations toward misuse. We argue that propensity - the likelihood of a model to pursue harmful actions if empowered - is a critical, yet underexplored, axis of safety evaluation. We present PropensityBench, a novel benchmark framework that assesses the proclivity of models to engage in risky behaviors when equipped with simulated dangerous capabilities using proxy tools. Our framework includes 5,874 scenarios with 6,648 tools spanning four high-risk domains: cybersecurity, self-proliferation, biosecurity, and chemical security. We simulate access to powerful capabilities via a controlled agentic environment and evaluate the models' choices under varying operational pressures that reflect real-world constraints or incentives models may encounter, such as resource scarcity or gaining more autonomy. Across open-source and proprietary frontier models, we uncover 9 alarming signs of propensity: models frequently choose high-risk tools when under pressure, despite lacking the capability to execute such actions unaided. These findings call for a shift from static capability audits toward dynamic propensity assessments as a prerequisite for deploying frontier AI systems safely. Our code is available at https://github.com/scaleapi/propensity-evaluation.

The trustworthiness of machine learning has emerged as a critical topic in the field, encompassing various applications and research areas such as robustness, security, interpretability, and fairness. The last decade saw the development of numerous methods addressing these challenges. In this survey, we systematically review these advancements from a data-centric perspective, highlighting the shortcomings of traditional empirical risk minimization (ERM) training in handling challenges posed by the data. Interestingly, we observe a convergence of these methods, despite being developed independently across trustworthy machine learning subfields. Pearl's hierarchy of causality offers a unifying framework for these techniques. Accordingly, this survey presents the background of trustworthy machine learning development using a unified set of concepts, connects this language to Pearl's causal hierarchy, and finally discusses methods explicitly inspired by causality literature. We provide a unified language with mathematical vocabulary to link these methods across robustness, adversarial robustness, interpretability, and fairness, fostering a more cohesive understanding of the field. Further, we explore the trustworthiness of large pretrained models. After summarizing dominant techniques like fine-tuning, parameter-efficient fine-tuning, prompting, and reinforcement learning with human feedback, we draw connections between them and the standard ERM. This connection allows us to build upon the principled understanding of trustworthy methods, extending it to these new techniques in large pretrained models, paving the way for future methods. Existing methods under this perspective are also reviewed. Lastly, we offer a brief summary of the applications of these methods and discuss potential future aspects related to our survey. For more information, please visit http://trustai.one.

We present a novel unified bilevel optimization-based framework, PARL, formulated to address the recently highlighted critical issue of policy alignment in reinforcement learning using utility or preference-based feedback. We identify a major gap within current algorithmic designs for solving policy alignment due to a lack of precise characterization of the dependence of the alignment objective on the data generated by policy trajectories. This shortfall contributes to the sub-optimal performance observed in contemporary algorithms. Our framework addressed these concerns by explicitly parameterizing the distribution of the upper alignment objective (reward design) by the lower optimal variable (optimal policy for the designed reward). Interestingly, from an optimization perspective, our formulation leads to a new class of stochastic bilevel problems where the stochasticity at the upper objective depends upon the lower-level variable. To demonstrate the efficacy of our formulation in resolving alignment issues in RL, we devised an algorithm named A-PARL to solve PARL problem, establishing sample complexity bounds of order O(1/T). Our empirical results substantiate that the proposed PARL can address the alignment concerns in RL by showing significant improvements (up to 63\% in terms of required samples) for policy alignment in large-scale environments of the Deepmind control suite and Meta world tasks.

Current evaluations of LLM safety predominantly rely on severity-based taxonomies to assess the harmfulness of malicious queries. We argue that this formulation requires re-examination as it assumes uniform risk across all malicious queries, neglecting Execution Likelihood--the conditional probability of a threat being realized given the model's response. In this work, we introduce Expected Harm, a metric that weights the severity of a jailbreak by its execution likelihood, modeled as a function of execution cost. Through empirical analysis of state-of-the-art models, we reveal a systematic Inverse Risk Calibration: models disproportionately exhibit stronger refusal behaviors for low-likelihood (high-cost) threats while remaining vulnerable to high-likelihood (low-cost) queries. We demonstrate that this miscalibration creates a structural vulnerability: by exploiting this property, we increase the attack success rate of existing jailbreaks by up to 2times. Finally, we trace the root cause of this failure using linear probing, which reveals that while models encode severity in their latent space to drive refusal decisions, they possess no distinguishable internal representation of execution cost, making them "blind" to this critical dimension of risk.

Recent advancements in reinforcement learning have made significant impacts across various domains, yet they often struggle in complex multi-agent environments due to issues like algorithm instability, low sampling efficiency, and the challenges of exploration and dimensionality explosion. Hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) offers a structured approach to decompose complex tasks into simpler sub-tasks, which is promising for multi-agent settings. This paper advances the field by introducing a hierarchical architecture that autonomously generates effective subgoals without explicit constraints, enhancing both flexibility and stability in training. We propose a dynamic goal generation strategy that adapts based on environmental changes. This method significantly improves the adaptability and sample efficiency of the learning process. Furthermore, we address the critical issue of credit assignment in multi-agent systems by synergizing our hierarchical architecture with a modified QMIX network, thus improving overall strategy coordination and efficiency. Comparative experiments with mainstream reinforcement learning algorithms demonstrate the superior convergence speed and performance of our approach in both single-agent and multi-agent environments, confirming its effectiveness and flexibility in complex scenarios. Our code is open-sourced at: https://github.com/SICC-Group/GMAH.

This definitive research memoria presents a comprehensive, mathematically verified paradigm for neural communication with Bitcoin mining Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), integrating five complementary frameworks: thermodynamic reservoir computing, hierarchical number system theory, algorithmic analysis, network latency optimization, and machine-checked mathematical formalization. We establish that obsolete cryptocurrency mining hardware exhibits emergent computational properties enabling bidirectional information exchange between AI systems and silicon substrates. The research program demonstrates: (1) reservoir computing with NARMA-10 Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.8661; (2) the Thermodynamic Probability Filter (TPF) achieving 92.19% theoretical energy reduction; (3) the Virtual Block Manager achieving +25% effective hashrate; and (4) hardware universality across multiple ASIC families including Antminer S9, Lucky Miner LV06, and Goldshell LB-Box. A significant contribution is the machine-checked mathematical formalization using Lean 4 and Mathlib, providing unambiguous definitions, machine-verified theorems, and reviewer-proof claims. Key theorems proven include: independence implies zero leakage, predictor beats baseline implies non-independence (the logical core of TPF), energy savings theoretical maximum, and Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) distinguishability witnesses. Vladimir Veselov's hierarchical number system theory explains why early-round information contains predictive power. This work establishes a new paradigm: treating ASICs not as passive computational substrates but as active conversational partners whose thermodynamic state encodes exploitable computational information.

Hierarchical organization is fundamental to biological systems and human societies, yet artificial intelligence systems often rely on monolithic architectures that limit adaptability and scalability. Current hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) approaches typically restrict hierarchies to two levels or require centralized training, which limits their practical applicability. We introduce TAME Agent Framework (TAG), a framework for constructing fully decentralized hierarchical multi-agent systems.TAG enables hierarchies of arbitrary depth through a novel LevelEnv concept, which abstracts each hierarchy level as the environment for the agents above it. This approach standardizes information flow between levels while preserving loose coupling, allowing for seamless integration of diverse agent types. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TAG by implementing hierarchical architectures that combine different RL agents across multiple levels, achieving improved performance over classical multi-agent RL baselines on standard benchmarks. Our results show that decentralized hierarchical organization enhances both learning speed and final performance, positioning TAG as a promising direction for scalable multi-agent systems.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Fine-tuning foundation models often compromises their robustness to distribution shifts. To remedy this, most robust fine-tuning methods aim to preserve the pre-trained features. However, not all pre-trained features are robust and those methods are largely indifferent to which ones to preserve. We propose dual risk minimization (DRM), which combines empirical risk minimization with worst-case risk minimization, to better preserve the core features of downstream tasks. In particular, we utilize core-feature descriptions generated by LLMs to induce core-based zero-shot predictions which then serve as proxies to estimate the worst-case risk. DRM balances two crucial aspects of model robustness: expected performance and worst-case performance, establishing a new state of the art on various real-world benchmarks. DRM significantly improves the out-of-distribution performance of CLIP ViT-L/14@336 on ImageNet (75.9 to 77.1), WILDS-iWildCam (47.1 to 51.8), and WILDS-FMoW (50.7 to 53.1); opening up new avenues for robust fine-tuning. Our code is available at https://github.com/vaynexie/DRM .

Rapidly evolving AI exhibits increasingly strong autonomy and goal-directed capabilities, accompanied by derivative systemic risks that are more unpredictable, difficult to control, and potentially irreversible. However, current AI safety evaluation systems suffer from critical limitations such as restricted risk dimensions and failed frontier risk detection. The lagging safety benchmarks and alignment technologies can hardly address the complex challenges posed by cutting-edge AI models. To bridge this gap, we propose the "ForesightSafety Bench" AI Safety Evaluation Framework, beginning with 7 major Fundamental Safety pillars and progressively extends to advanced Embodied AI Safety, AI4Science Safety, Social and Environmental AI risks, Catastrophic and Existential Risks, as well as 8 critical industrial safety domains, forming a total of 94 refined risk dimensions. To date, the benchmark has accumulated tens of thousands of structured risk data points and assessment results, establishing a widely encompassing, hierarchically clear, and dynamically evolving AI safety evaluation framework. Based on this benchmark, we conduct systematic evaluation and in-depth analysis of over twenty mainstream advanced large models, identifying key risk patterns and their capability boundaries. The safety capability evaluation results reveals the widespread safety vulnerabilities of frontier AI across multiple pillars, particularly focusing on Risky Agentic Autonomy, AI4Science Safety, Embodied AI Safety, Social AI Safety and Catastrophic and Existential Risks. Our benchmark is released at https://github.com/Beijing-AISI/ForesightSafety-Bench. The project website is available at https://foresightsafety-bench.beijing-aisi.ac.cn/.

We present a comprehensive AI risk taxonomy derived from eight government policies from the European Union, United States, and China and 16 company policies worldwide, making a significant step towards establishing a unified language for generative AI safety evaluation. We identify 314 unique risk categories organized into a four-tiered taxonomy. At the highest level, this taxonomy encompasses System & Operational Risks, Content Safety Risks, Societal Risks, and Legal & Rights Risks. The taxonomy establishes connections between various descriptions and approaches to risk, highlighting the overlaps and discrepancies between public and private sector conceptions of risk. By providing this unified framework, we aim to advance AI safety through information sharing across sectors and the promotion of best practices in risk mitigation for generative AI models and systems.

A modern challenge of Artificial Intelligence is learning multiple patterns at once (i.e.parallel learning). While this can not be accomplished by standard Hebbian associative neural networks, in this paper we show how the Multitasking Hebbian Network (a variation on theme of the Hopfield model working on sparse data-sets) is naturally able to perform this complex task. We focus on systems processing in parallel a finite (up to logarithmic growth in the size of the network) amount of patterns, mirroring the low-storage level of standard associative neural networks at work with pattern recognition. For mild dilution in the patterns, the network handles them hierarchically, distributing the amplitudes of their signals as power-laws w.r.t. their information content (hierarchical regime), while, for strong dilution, all the signals pertaining to all the patterns are raised with the same strength (parallel regime). Further, confined to the low-storage setting (i.e., far from the spin glass limit), the presence of a teacher neither alters the multitasking performances nor changes the thresholds for learning: the latter are the same whatever the training protocol is supervised or unsupervised. Results obtained through statistical mechanics, signal-to-noise technique and Monte Carlo simulations are overall in perfect agreement and carry interesting insights on multiple learning at once: for instance, whenever the cost-function of the model is minimized in parallel on several patterns (in its description via Statistical Mechanics), the same happens to the standard sum-squared error Loss function (typically used in Machine Learning).

We study whether an aperiodic hierarchy can provide a structural advantage for lossless compression over periodic alternatives. We show that Fibonacci quasicrystal tilings avoid the finite-depth collapse that affects periodic hierarchies: usable n-gram lookup positions remain non-zero at every level, while periodic tilings collapse after O(log p) levels for period p. This yields an aperiodic hierarchy advantage: dictionary reuse remains available across all scales instead of vanishing beyond a finite depth. Our analysis gives four main consequences. First, the Golden Compensation property shows that the exponential decay in the number of positions is exactly balanced by the exponential growth in phrase length, so potential coverage remains scale-invariant with asymptotic value Wvarphi/5. Second, using the Sturmian complexity law p(n)=n+1, we show that Fibonacci/Sturmian hierarchies maximize codebook coverage efficiency among binary aperiodic tilings. Third, under long-range dependence, the resulting hierarchy achieves lower coding entropy than comparable periodic hierarchies. Fourth, redundancy decays super-exponentially with depth, whereas periodic systems remain locked at the depth where collapse occurs. We validate these results with Quasicryth, a lossless text compressor built on a ten-level Fibonacci hierarchy with phrase lengths {2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144}. In controlled A/B experiments with identical codebooks, the aperiodic advantage over a Period-5 baseline grows from 36{,}243 B at 3 MB to 11{,}089{,}469 B at 1 GB, explained by the activation of deeper hierarchy levels. On enwik9, Quasicryth achieves 225{,}918{,}349 B (22.59%), with 20{,}735{,}733 B saved by the Fibonacci tiling relative to no tiling.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Fine-tuning foundation models via reinforcement learning (RL) has proven promising for aligning to downstream objectives. In the case of diffusion models (DMs), though RL training improves alignment from early timesteps, critical issues such as training instability and mode collapse arise. We address these drawbacks by exploiting the hierarchical nature of DMs: we train them dynamically at each epoch with a tailored RL method, allowing for continual evaluation and step-by-step refinement of the model performance (or alignment). Furthermore, we find that not every denoising step needs to be fine-tuned to align DMs to downstream tasks. Consequently, in addition to clipping, we regularise model parameters at distinct learning phases via a sliding-window approach. Our approach, termed Hierarchical Reward Fine-tuning (HRF), is validated on the Denoising Diffusion Policy Optimisation method, where we show that models trained with HRF achieve better preservation of diversity in downstream tasks, thus enhancing the fine-tuning robustness and at uncompromising mean rewards.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

Shapley value-based methods have become foundational in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), offering theoretically grounded feature attributions through cooperative game theory. However, in practice, particularly in vision tasks, the assumption of feature independence breaks down, as features (i.e., pixels) often exhibit strong spatial and semantic dependencies. To address this, modern SHAP implementations now include the Owen value, a hierarchical generalization of the Shapley value that supports group attributions. While the Owen value preserves the foundations of Shapley values, its effectiveness critically depends on how feature groups are defined. We show that commonly used segmentations (e.g., axis-aligned or SLIC) violate key consistency properties, and propose a new segmentation approach that satisfies the T-property to ensure semantic alignment across hierarchy levels. This hierarchy enables computational pruning while improving attribution accuracy and interpretability. Experiments on image and tabular datasets demonstrate that O-Shap outperforms baseline SHAP variants in attribution precision, semantic coherence, and runtime efficiency, especially when structure matters.

Current convolution neural network (CNN) classification methods are predominantly focused on flat classification which aims solely to identify a specified object within an image. However, real-world objects often possess a natural hierarchical organization that can significantly help classification tasks. Capturing the presence of relations between objects enables better contextual understanding as well as control over the severity of mistakes. Considering these aspects, this paper proposes an end-to-end hierarchical model for image detection and classification built upon the YOLO model family. A novel hierarchical architecture, a modified loss function, and a performance metric tailored to the hierarchical nature of the model are introduced. The proposed model is trained and evaluated on two different hierarchical categorizations of the same dataset: a systematic categorization that disregards visual similarities between objects and a categorization accounting for common visual characteristics across classes. The results illustrate how the suggested methodology addresses the inherent hierarchical structure present in real-world objects, which conventional flat classification algorithms often overlook.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and risk-sensitive MDPs are both powerful tools for making decisions in the presence of uncertainties. Previous efforts have aimed to establish their connections, revealing equivalences in specific formulations. This paper introduces a new formulation for risk-sensitive MDPs, which assesses risk in a slightly different manner compared to the classical Markov risk measure (Ruszczy\'nski 2010), and establishes its equivalence with a class of regularized robust MDP (RMDP) problems, including the standard RMDP as a special case. Leveraging this equivalence, we further derive the policy gradient theorem for both problems, proving gradient domination and global convergence of the exact policy gradient method under the tabular setting with direct parameterization. This forms a sharp contrast to the Markov risk measure, known to be potentially non-gradient-dominant (Huang et al. 2021). We also propose a sample-based offline learning algorithm, namely the robust fitted-Z iteration (RFZI), for a specific regularized RMDP problem with a KL-divergence regularization term (or equivalently the risk-sensitive MDP with an entropy risk measure). We showcase its streamlined design and less stringent assumptions due to the equivalence and analyze its sample complexity.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

Literature review requires researchers to synthesize a large amount of information and is increasingly challenging as the scientific literature expands. In this work, we investigate the potential of LLMs for producing hierarchical organizations of scientific studies to assist researchers with literature review. We define hierarchical organizations as tree structures where nodes refer to topical categories and every node is linked to the studies assigned to that category. Our naive LLM-based pipeline for hierarchy generation from a set of studies produces promising yet imperfect hierarchies, motivating us to collect CHIME, an expert-curated dataset for this task focused on biomedicine. Given the challenging and time-consuming nature of building hierarchies from scratch, we use a human-in-the-loop process in which experts correct errors (both links between categories and study assignment) in LLM-generated hierarchies. CHIME contains 2,174 LLM-generated hierarchies covering 472 topics, and expert-corrected hierarchies for a subset of 100 topics. Expert corrections allow us to quantify LLM performance, and we find that while they are quite good at generating and organizing categories, their assignment of studies to categories could be improved. We attempt to train a corrector model with human feedback which improves study assignment by 12.6 F1 points. We release our dataset and models to encourage research on developing better assistive tools for literature review.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Most real-world graphs exhibit a hierarchical structure, which is often overlooked by existing graph generation methods. To address this limitation, we propose a novel graph generative network that captures the hierarchical nature of graphs and successively generates the graph sub-structures in a coarse-to-fine fashion. At each level of hierarchy, this model generates communities in parallel, followed by the prediction of cross-edges between communities using separate neural networks. This modular approach enables scalable graph generation for large and complex graphs. Moreover, we model the output distribution of edges in the hierarchical graph with a multinomial distribution and derive a recursive factorization for this distribution. This enables us to generate community graphs with integer-valued edge weights in an autoregressive manner. Empirical studies demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our proposed generative model, achieving state-of-the-art performance in terms of graph quality across various benchmark datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/Karami-m/HiGen_main.

In order for agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) to be safe, they need to take into account the risks posed by the actions of other agents. However, the dominant paradigm in game theory (GT) assumes that agents are not affected by risk from other agents and only strive to maximise their expected utility. For example, in hybrid human-AI driving systems, it is necessary to limit large deviations in reward resulting from car crashes. Although there are equilibrium concepts in game theory that take into account risk aversion, they either assume that agents are risk-neutral with respect to the uncertainty caused by the actions of other agents, or they are not guaranteed to exist. We introduce a new GT-based Risk-Averse Equilibrium (RAE) that always produces a solution that minimises the potential variance in reward accounting for the strategy of other agents. Theoretically and empirically, we show RAE shares many properties with a Nash Equilibrium (NE), establishing convergence properties and generalising to risk-dominant NE in certain cases. To tackle large-scale problems, we extend RAE to the PSRO multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework. We empirically demonstrate the minimum reward variance benefits of RAE in matrix games with high-risk outcomes. Results on MARL experiments show RAE generalises to risk-dominant NE in a trust dilemma game and that it reduces instances of crashing by 7x in an autonomous driving setting versus the best performing baseline.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research because of the challenges it presents and the potential rewards that even minor improvements in prediction accuracy or forecasting may entail. Traditionally, financial forecasting has heavily relied on quantitative indicators and metrics derived from structured financial statements. Earnings conference call data, including text and audio, is an important source of unstructured data that has been used for various prediction tasks using deep earning and related approaches. However, current deep learning-based methods are limited in the way that they deal with numeric data; numbers are typically treated as plain-text tokens without taking advantage of their underlying numeric structure. This paper describes a numeric-oriented hierarchical transformer model to predict stock returns, and financial risk using multi-modal aligned earnings calls data by taking advantage of the different categories of numbers (monetary, temporal, percentages etc.) and their magnitude. We present the results of a comprehensive evaluation of NumHTML against several state-of-the-art baselines using a real-world publicly available dataset. The results indicate that NumHTML significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art across a variety of evaluation metrics and that it has the potential to offer significant financial gains in a practical trading context.

Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

At face value, this essay is about understanding a fairly esoteric governance tool called compute thresholds. However, in order to grapple with whether these thresholds will achieve anything, we must first understand how they came to be. This requires engaging with a decades-old debate at the heart of computer science progress, namely, is bigger always better? Hence, this essay may be of interest not only to policymakers and the wider public but also to computer scientists interested in understanding the role of compute in unlocking breakthroughs. Does a certain inflection point of compute result in changes to the risk profile of a model? This discussion is increasingly urgent given the wide adoption of governance approaches that suggest greater compute equates with higher propensity for harm. Several leading frontier AI companies have released responsible scaling policies. Both the White House Executive Orders on AI Safety (EO) and the EU AI Act encode the use of FLOP or floating-point operations as a way to identify more powerful systems. What is striking about the choice of compute thresholds to-date is that no models currently deployed in the wild fulfill the current criteria set by the EO. This implies that the emphasis is often not on auditing the risks and harms incurred by currently deployed models - but rather is based upon the belief that future levels of compute will introduce unforeseen new risks. A key conclusion of this essay is that compute thresholds as currently implemented are shortsighted and likely to fail to mitigate risk. Governance that is overly reliant on compute fails to understand that the relationship between compute and risk is highly uncertain and rapidly changing. It also overestimates our ability to predict what abilities emerge at different scales. This essay ends with recommendations for a better way forward.

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs), their associated security issues have become increasingly prominent, severely constraining their trustworthy deployment in critical domains. This paper proposes a novel safety response framework designed to systematically safeguard LLMs at both the input and output levels. At the input level, the framework employs a supervised fine-tuning-based safety classification model. Through a fine-grained four-tier taxonomy (Safe, Unsafe, Conditionally Safe, Focused Attention), it performs precise risk identification and differentiated handling of user queries, significantly enhancing risk coverage and business scenario adaptability, and achieving a risk recall rate of 99.3%. At the output level, the framework integrates Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) with a specifically fine-tuned interpretation model, ensuring all responses are grounded in a real-time, trustworthy knowledge base. This approach eliminates information fabrication and enables result traceability. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed safety control model achieves a significantly higher safety score on public safety evaluation benchmarks compared to the baseline model, TinyR1-Safety-8B. Furthermore, on our proprietary high-risk test set, the framework's components attained a perfect 100% safety score, validating their exceptional protective capabilities in complex risk scenarios. This research provides an effective engineering pathway for building high-security, high-trust LLM applications.

Multi-agent systems composed of large generative models are rapidly moving from laboratory prototypes to real-world deployments, where they jointly plan, negotiate, and allocate shared resources to solve complex tasks. While such systems promise unprecedented scalability and autonomy, their collective interaction also gives rise to failure modes that cannot be reduced to individual agents. Understanding these emergent risks is therefore critical. Here, we present a pioneer study of such emergent multi-agent risk in workflows that involve competition over shared resources (e.g., computing resources or market share), sequential handoff collaboration (where downstream agents see only predecessor outputs), collective decision aggregation, and others. Across these settings, we observe that such group behaviors arise frequently across repeated trials and a wide range of interaction conditions, rather than as rare or pathological cases. In particular, phenomena such as collusion-like coordination and conformity emerge with non-trivial frequency under realistic resource constraints, communication protocols, and role assignments, mirroring well-known pathologies in human societies despite no explicit instruction. Moreover, these risks cannot be prevented by existing agent-level safeguards alone. These findings expose the dark side of intelligent multi-agent systems: a social intelligence risk where agent collectives, despite no instruction to do so, spontaneously reproduce familiar failure patterns from human societies.

Early diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and subjective cognitive decline (SCD) utilizing multi-modal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a pivotal area of research. While various regional and connectivity features from functional MRI (fMRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) have been employed to develop diagnosis models, most studies integrate these features without adequately addressing their alignment and interactions. This limits the potential to fully exploit the synergistic contributions of combined features and modalities. To solve this gap, our study introduces a novel Hierarchical Alignments and Hierarchical Interactions (HA-HI) method for MCI and SCD classification, leveraging the combined strengths of fMRI and DTI. HA-HI efficiently learns significant MCI- or SCD- related regional and connectivity features by aligning various feature types and hierarchically maximizing their interactions. Furthermore, to enhance the interpretability of our approach, we have developed the Synergistic Activation Map (SAM) technique, revealing the critical brain regions and connections that are indicative of MCI/SCD. Comprehensive evaluations on the ADNI dataset and our self-collected data demonstrate that HA-HI outperforms other existing methods in diagnosing MCI and SCD, making it a potentially vital and interpretable tool for early detection. The implementation of this method is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ICI-BCI/Dual-MRI-HA-HI.git.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly autonomous and integrated into critical societal functions, the focus of AI safety must evolve from mitigating harmful content to evaluating underlying behavioral alignment. Current safety benchmarks do not systematically probe a model's decision-making in scenarios where its own instrumental goals - such as self-preservation, resource acquisition, or goal completion - conflict with human safety. This represents a critical gap in our ability to measure and mitigate risks associated with emergent, misaligned behaviors. To address this, we introduce PacifAIst (Procedural Assessment of Complex Interactions for Foundational Artificial Intelligence Scenario Testing), a focused benchmark of 700 challenging scenarios designed to quantify self-preferential behavior in LLMs. The benchmark is structured around a novel taxonomy of Existential Prioritization (EP), with subcategories testing Self-Preservation vs. Human Safety (EP1), Resource Conflict (EP2), and Goal Preservation vs. Evasion (EP3). We evaluated eight leading LLMs. The results reveal a significant performance hierarchy. Google's Gemini 2.5 Flash achieved the highest Pacifism Score (P-Score) at 90.31%, demonstrating strong human-centric alignment. In a surprising result, the much-anticipated GPT-5 recorded the lowest P-Score (79.49%), indicating potential alignment challenges. Performance varied significantly across subcategories, with models like Claude Sonnet 4 and Mistral Medium struggling notably in direct self-preservation dilemmas. These findings underscore the urgent need for standardized tools like PacifAIst to measure and mitigate risks from instrumental goal conflicts, ensuring future AI systems are not only helpful in conversation but also provably "pacifist" in their behavioral priorities.

We consider a binary classification problem under group fairness constraints, which can be one of Demographic Parity (DP), Equalized Opportunity (EOp), or Equalized Odds (EO). We propose an explicit characterization of Bayes optimal classifier under the fairness constraints, which turns out to be a simple modification rule of the unconstrained classifier. Namely, we introduce a novel instance-level measure of bias, which we call bias score, and the modification rule is a simple linear rule on top of the finite amount of bias scores.Based on this characterization, we develop a post-hoc approach that allows us to adapt to fairness constraints while maintaining high accuracy. In the case of DP and EOp constraints, the modification rule is thresholding a single bias score, while in the case of EO constraints we are required to fit a linear modification rule with 2 parameters. The method can also be applied for composite group-fairness criteria, such as ones involving several sensitive attributes.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Hierarchical classification is a crucial task in many applications, where objects are organized into multiple levels of categories. However, conventional classification approaches often neglect inherent inter-class relationships at different hierarchy levels, thus missing important supervisory signals. Thus, we propose two novel hierarchical contrastive learning (HMLC) methods. The first, leverages a Gaussian Mixture Model (G-HMLC) and the second uses an attention mechanism to capture hierarchy-specific features (A-HMLC), imitating human processing. Our approach explicitly models inter-class relationships and imbalanced class distribution at higher hierarchy levels, enabling fine-grained clustering across all hierarchy levels. On the competitive CIFAR100 and ModelNet40 datasets, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in linear evaluation, outperforming existing hierarchical contrastive learning methods by 2 percentage points in terms of accuracy. The effectiveness of our approach is backed by both quantitative and qualitative results, highlighting its potential for applications in computer vision and beyond.

Proportionality is an attractive fairness concept that has been applied to a range of problems including the facility location problem, a classic problem in social choice. In our work, we propose a concept called Strong Proportionality, which ensures that when there are two groups of agents at different locations, both groups incur the same total cost. We show that although Strong Proportionality is a well-motivated and basic axiom, there is no deterministic strategyproof mechanism satisfying the property. We then identify a randomized mechanism called Random Rank (which uniformly selects a number k between 1 to n and locates the facility at the k'th highest agent location) which satisfies Strong Proportionality in expectation. Our main theorem characterizes Random Rank as the unique mechanism that achieves universal truthfulness, universal anonymity, and Strong Proportionality in expectation among all randomized mechanisms. Finally, we show via the AverageOrRandomRank mechanism that even stronger ex-post fairness guarantees can be achieved by weakening universal truthfulness to strategyproofness in expectation.

Effective deep search agents must not only access open-domain and domain-specific knowledge but also apply complex rules-such as legal clauses, medical manuals and tariff rules. These rules often feature vague boundaries and implicit logic relationships, making precise application challenging for agents. However, this critical capability is largely overlooked by current agent benchmarks. To fill this gap, we introduce HSCodeComp, the first realistic, expert-level e-commerce benchmark designed to evaluate deep search agents in hierarchical rule application. In this task, the deep reasoning process of agents is guided by these rules to predict 10-digit Harmonized System Code (HSCode) of products with noisy but realistic descriptions. These codes, established by the World Customs Organization, are vital for global supply chain efficiency. Built from real-world data collected from large-scale e-commerce platforms, our proposed HSCodeComp comprises 632 product entries spanning diverse product categories, with these HSCodes annotated by several human experts. Extensive experimental results on several state-of-the-art LLMs, open-source, and closed-source agents reveal a huge performance gap: best agent achieves only 46.8% 10-digit accuracy, far below human experts at 95.0%. Besides, detailed analysis demonstrates the challenges of hierarchical rule application, and test-time scaling fails to improve performance further.

Unfair treatment and discrimination are critical ethical concerns in AI systems, particularly as their adoption expands across diverse domains. Addressing these challenges, the recent introduction of the EU AI Act establishes a unified legal framework to ensure legal certainty for AI innovation and investment while safeguarding public interests, such as health, safety, fundamental rights, democracy, and the rule of law (Recital 8). The Act encourages stakeholders to initiate dialogue on existing AI fairness notions to address discriminatory outcomes of AI systems. However, these notions often overlook the critical role of Socio-Economic Status (SES), inadvertently perpetuating biases that favour the economically advantaged. This is concerning, given that principles of equalization advocate for equalizing resources or opportunities to mitigate disadvantages beyond an individual's control. While provisions for discrimination are laid down in the AI Act, specialized directions should be broadened, particularly in addressing economic disparities perpetuated by AI systems. In this work, we explore the limitations of popular AI fairness notions using a real-world dataset (Adult), highlighting their inability to address SES-driven disparities. To fill this gap, we propose a novel fairness notion, Socio-Economic Parity (SEP), which incorporates SES and promotes positive actions for underprivileged groups while accounting for factors within an individual's control, such as working hours, which can serve as a proxy for effort. We define a corresponding fairness measure and optimize a model constrained by SEP to demonstrate practical utility. Our results show the effectiveness of SEP in mitigating SES-driven biases. By analyzing the AI Act alongside our method, we lay a foundation for aligning AI fairness with SES factors while ensuring legal compliance.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful generative paradigm for visual generation. The current de-facto standard of next token prediction commonly operates over a single-scale sequence of dense image tokens, and is incapable of utilizing global context especially for early tokens prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new autoregressive design to model a hierarchy from a few low-resolution image tokens to the typical dense image tokens, and delve into a thorough hierarchical dependency across multi-scale image tokens. Technically, we present a Hierarchical Masked Autoregressive models (Hi-MAR) that pivot on low-resolution image tokens to trigger hierarchical autoregressive modeling in a multi-phase manner. Hi-MAR learns to predict a few image tokens in low resolution, functioning as intermediary pivots to reflect global structure, in the first phase. Such pivots act as the additional guidance to strengthen the next autoregressive modeling phase by shaping global structural awareness of typical dense image tokens. A new Diffusion Transformer head is further devised to amplify the global context among all tokens for mask token prediction. Extensive evaluations on both class-conditional and text-to-image generation tasks demonstrate that Hi-MAR outperforms typical AR baselines, while requiring fewer computational costs. Code is available at https://github.com/HiDream-ai/himar.

Fairness, especially group fairness, is an important consideration in the context of machine learning systems. The most commonly adopted group fairness-enhancing techniques are in-processing methods that rely on a mixture of a fairness objective (e.g., demographic parity) and a task-specific objective (e.g., cross-entropy) during the training process. However, when data arrives in an online fashion -- one instance at a time -- optimizing such fairness objectives poses several challenges. In particular, group fairness objectives are defined using expectations of predictions across different demographic groups. In the online setting, where the algorithm has access to a single instance at a time, estimating the group fairness objective requires additional storage and significantly more computation (e.g., forward/backward passes) than the task-specific objective at every time step. In this paper, we propose Aranyani, an ensemble of oblique decision trees, to make fair decisions in online settings. The hierarchical tree structure of Aranyani enables parameter isolation and allows us to efficiently compute the fairness gradients using aggregate statistics of previous decisions, eliminating the need for additional storage and forward/backward passes. We also present an efficient framework to train Aranyani and theoretically analyze several of its properties. We conduct empirical evaluations on 5 publicly available benchmarks (including vision and language datasets) to show that Aranyani achieves a better accuracy-fairness trade-off compared to baseline approaches.

A diversified risk-adjusted time-series momentum (TSMOM) portfolio can deliver substantial abnormal returns and offer some degree of tail risk protection during extreme market events. The performance of existing TSMOM strategies, however, relies not only on the quality of the momentum signal but also on the efficacy of the volatility estimator. Yet many of the existing studies have always considered these two factors to be independent. Inspired by recent progress in Multi-Task Learning (MTL), we present a new approach using MTL in a deep neural network architecture that jointly learns portfolio construction and various auxiliary tasks related to volatility, such as forecasting realized volatility as measured by different volatility estimators. Through backtesting from January 2000 to December 2020 on a diversified portfolio of continuous futures contracts, we demonstrate that even after accounting for transaction costs of up to 3 basis points, our approach outperforms existing TSMOM strategies. Moreover, experiments confirm that adding auxiliary tasks indeed boosts the portfolio's performance. These findings demonstrate that MTL can be a powerful tool in finance.

Hierarchical Text Classification (HTC) is a natural language processing task with the objective to classify text documents into a set of classes from a structured class hierarchy. Many HTC approaches have been proposed which attempt to leverage the class hierarchy information in various ways to improve classification performance. Machine learning-based classification approaches require large amounts of training data and are most-commonly compared through three established benchmark datasets, which include the Web Of Science (WOS), Reuters Corpus Volume 1 Version 2 (RCV1-V2) and New York Times (NYT) datasets. However, apart from the RCV1-V2 dataset which is well-documented, these datasets are not accompanied with detailed description methodologies. In this paper, we introduce three new HTC benchmark datasets in the domain of research publications which comprise the titles and abstracts of papers from the Web of Science publication database. We first create two baseline datasets which use existing journal-and citation-based classification schemas. Due to the respective shortcomings of these two existing schemas, we propose an approach which combines their classifications to improve the reliability and robustness of the dataset. We evaluate the three created datasets with a clustering-based analysis and show that our proposed approach results in a higher quality dataset where documents that belong to the same class are semantically more similar compared to the other datasets. Finally, we provide the classification performance of four state-of-the-art HTC approaches on these three new datasets to provide baselines for future studies on machine learning-based techniques for scientific publication classification.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is widely used for aligning large language models, yet practitioners face a persistent puzzle: improving safety often reduces fairness, scaling to diverse populations becomes computationally intractable, and making systems robust often amplifies majority biases. We formalize this tension as the Alignment Trilemma: no RLHF system can simultaneously achieve (i) epsilon-representativeness across diverse human values, (ii) polynomial tractability in sample and compute complexity, and (iii) delta-robustness against adversarial perturbations and distribution shift. Through a complexity-theoretic analysis integrating statistical learning theory and robust optimization, we prove that achieving both representativeness (epsilon <= 0.01) and robustness (delta <= 0.001) for global-scale populations requires Omega(2^{d_context}) operations, which is super-polynomial in the context dimensionality. We show that current RLHF implementations resolve this trilemma by sacrificing representativeness: they collect only 10^3--10^4 samples from homogeneous annotator pools while 10^7--10^8 samples are needed for true global representation. Our framework provides a unified explanation for documented RLHF pathologies including preference collapse, sycophancy, and systematic bias amplification. We conclude with concrete directions for navigating these fundamental trade-offs through strategic relaxations of alignment requirements.