Daily Papers

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

Denoising-based diffusion transformers, despite their strong generation performance, suffer from inefficient training convergence. Existing methods addressing this issue, such as REPA (relying on external representation encoders) or SRA (requiring dual-model setups), inevitably incur heavy computational overhead during training due to external dependencies. To tackle these challenges, this paper proposes SRA 2, a lightweight intrinsic guidance framework for efficient diffusion training. SRA 2 leverages off-the-shelf pre-trained Variational Autoencoder (VAE) features: their reconstruction property ensures inherent encoding of visual priors like rich texture details, structural patterns, and basic semantic information. Specifically, SRA 2 aligns the intermediate latent features of diffusion transformers with VAE features via a lightweight projection layer, supervised by a feature alignment loss. This design accelerates training without extra representation encoders or dual-model maintenance, resulting in a simple yet effective pipeline. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SRA 2 improves both generation quality and training convergence speed compared to vanilla diffusion transformers, matches or outperforms state-of-the-art acceleration methods, and incurs merely 4% extra GFLOPs with zero additional cost for external guidance models.

Effective decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for handling intricate tasks. However, existing approaches prioritize performance but often overlook the balance between effectiveness and computational cost. To address this, we first introduce the 3E Criteria to systematically assess the cost-effectiveness of search strategies, revealing that existing methods often trade significant efficiency for marginal performance gains. To improve LLM decision-making while maintaining efficiency, we propose the Speculative Reward Model (SRM), a plug-and-play framework that seamlessly integrates with existing search strategies. Specifically, SRM employs an external reward assigner to predict optimal actions, reducing reliance on LLMs' internal self-evaluation. And a speculative verification mechanism is used to prune suboptimal choices and guide the search toward more promising steps. We evaluate SRM on several complex decision-making tasks including mathematical reasoning, planning and numerical reasoning in specialized domains. Experimental results show that SRM reduces costs to 1/10 of the original search framework on average while maintaining effectiveness.

Although large-scale pre-trained language models (PTLMs) are shown to encode rich knowledge in their model parameters, the inherent knowledge in PTLMs can be opaque or static, making external knowledge necessary. However, the existing information retrieval techniques could be costly and may even introduce noisy and sometimes misleading knowledge. To address these challenges, we propose the instance-level adaptive propulsion of external knowledge (IAPEK), where we only conduct the retrieval when necessary. To achieve this goal, we propose measuring whether a PTLM contains enough knowledge to solve an instance with a novel metric, Thrust, which leverages the representation distribution of a small number of seen instances. Extensive experiments demonstrate that thrust is a good measurement of PTLM models' instance-level knowledgeability. Moreover, we can achieve significantly higher cost-efficiency with the Thrust score as the retrieval indicator than the naive usage of external knowledge on 88% of the evaluated tasks with 26% average performance improvement. Such findings shed light on the real-world practice of knowledge-enhanced LMs with a limited knowledge-seeking budget due to computation latency or costs.

The dominance of proprietary LLMs has led to restricted access and raised information privacy concerns. High-performing open-source alternatives are crucial for information-sensitive and high-volume applications but often lag behind in performance. To address this gap, we propose (1) A untargeted variant of iterative self-critique and self-refinement devoid of external influence. (2) A novel ranking metric - Performance, Refinement, and Inference Cost Score (PeRFICS) - to find the optimal model for a given task considering refined performance and cost. Our experiments show that SoTA open source models of varying sizes from 7B - 65B, on average, improve 8.2% from their baseline performance. Strikingly, even models with extremely small memory footprints, such as Vicuna-7B, show a 11.74% improvement overall and up to a 25.39% improvement in high-creativity, open ended tasks on the Vicuna benchmark. Vicuna-13B takes it a step further and outperforms ChatGPT post-refinement. This work has profound implications for resource-constrained and information-sensitive environments seeking to leverage LLMs without incurring prohibitive costs, compromising on performance and privacy. The domain-agnostic self-refinement process coupled with our novel ranking metric facilitates informed decision-making in model selection, thereby reducing costs and democratizing access to high-performing language models, as evidenced by case studies.

Large-language-model (LLM)-based AI agents have recently showcased impressive versatility by employing dynamic reasoning, an adaptive, multi-step process that coordinates with external tools. This shift from static, single-turn inference to agentic, multi-turn workflows broadens task generalization and behavioral flexibility, but it also introduces serious concerns about system-level cost, efficiency, and sustainability. This paper presents the first comprehensive system-level analysis of AI agents, quantifying their resource usage, latency behavior, energy consumption, and datacenter-wide power consumption demands across diverse agent designs and test-time scaling strategies. We further characterize how AI agent design choices, such as few-shot prompting, reflection depth, and parallel reasoning, impact accuracy-cost tradeoffs. Our findings reveal that while agents improve accuracy with increased compute, they suffer from rapidly diminishing returns, widening latency variance, and unsustainable infrastructure costs. Through detailed evaluation of representative agents, we highlight the profound computational demands introduced by AI agent workflows, uncovering a looming sustainability crisis. These results call for a paradigm shift in agent design toward compute-efficient reasoning, balancing performance with deployability under real-world constraints.

Rigorous performance evaluation is essential for developing robust algorithms for high-throughput computational chemistry. Traditional benchmarking, however, often struggles to account for system-specific variability, making it difficult to form actionable conclusions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that rigorously quantifies performance metrics and their uncertainty, enabling a nuanced comparison of algorithmic strategies. We apply this framework to analyze the Dimer method, comparing Conjugate Gradient (CG) and L-BFGS rotation optimizers, with and without the removal of external rotations, across a benchmark of 500 molecular systems. Our analysis confirms that CG offers higher overall robustness than L-BFGS in this context. While the theoretically-motivated removal of external rotations led to higher computational cost (>40% more energy and force calls) for most systems in this set, our models also reveal a subtle interplay, hinting that this feature may improve the reliability of the L-BFGS optimizer. Rather than identifying a single superior method, our findings support the design of adaptive "chain of methods" workflows. This work showcases how a robust statistical paradigm can move beyond simple performance rankings to inform the intelligent, context-dependent application of computational chemistry methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable generation capabilities but often struggle to access up-to-date information, which can lead to hallucinations. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) addresses this issue by incorporating knowledge from external databases, enabling more accurate and relevant responses. Due to the context window constraints of LLMs, it is impractical to input the entire external database context directly into the model. Instead, only the most relevant information, referred to as chunks, is selectively retrieved. However, current RAG research faces three key challenges. First, existing solutions often select each chunk independently, overlooking potential correlations among them. Second, in practice the utility of chunks is non-monotonic, meaning that adding more chunks can decrease overall utility. Traditional methods emphasize maximizing the number of included chunks, which can inadvertently compromise performance. Third, each type of user query possesses unique characteristics that require tailored handling, an aspect that current approaches do not fully consider. To overcome these challenges, we propose a cost constrained retrieval optimization system CORAG for retrieval-augmented generation. We employ a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) based policy framework to find optimal chunk combinations sequentially, allowing for a comprehensive consideration of correlations among chunks. Additionally, rather than viewing budget exhaustion as a termination condition, we integrate budget constraints into the optimization of chunk combinations, effectively addressing the non-monotonicity of chunk utility.

As large language models (LLMs) diversify across modalities, capabilities, and cost profiles, the problem of intelligent request routing -- selecting the right model for each query at inference time -- has become a critical systems challenge. We present vLLM Semantic Router, a signal-driven decision routing framework for Mixture-of-Modality (MoM) model deployments. The central innovation is composable signal orchestration: the system extracts heterogeneous signal types from each request -- from sub-millisecond heuristic features (keyword patterns, language detection, context length, role-based authorization) to neural classifiers (domain, embedding similarity, factual grounding, modality) -- and composes them through configurable Boolean decision rules into deployment-specific routing policies. Different deployment scenarios -- multi-cloud enterprise, privacy-regulated, cost-optimized, latency-sensitive -- are expressed as different signal-decision configurations over the same architecture, without code changes. Matched decisions drive semantic model routing: over a dozen of selection algorithms analyze request characteristics to find the best model cost-effectively, while per-decision plugin chains enforce privacy and safety constraints (jailbreak detection, PII filtering, hallucination detection via the three-stage HaluGate pipeline). The system provides OpenAI API support for stateful multi-turn conversations, multi-endpoint and multi-provider routing across heterogeneous backends (vLLM, OpenAI, Anthropic, Azure, Bedrock, Gemini, Vertex AI), and a pluggable authorization factory supporting multiple auth providers. Deployed in production as an Envoy external processor, the architecture demonstrates that composable signal orchestration enables a single routing framework to serve diverse deployment scenarios with differentiated cost, privacy, and safety policies.

Modern LLM deployments confront a widening cost-performance spectrum: premium models deliver strong reasoning but are expensive, while lightweight models are economical yet brittle on complex tasks. Static escalation rules and keyword heuristics under-utilize this spectrum and fail to adapt across task types. We present xRouter, a tool-calling-based routing system in which a learned router can either answer directly or invoke one or more external models. The router is trained end-to-end with reinforcement learning using an explicit, cost-aware reward that encodes cost-performance trade-offs, eliminating the need for hand-engineered routing rules. Our implementation encompasses the full reinforcement learning framework, including reward and cost accounting, as well as the deployment and evaluation pipelines. Across diverse benchmarks, xRouter achieves strong cost-performance trade-offs (e.g., substantial cost reductions at comparable task completion rates), and provides empirical insights into what reliably helps learned routing and what does not, ranging from model trainability to the difficulty of eliciting sophisticated orchestration behaviors in small open models. We hope these findings and our open implementation will serve as a practical substrate for advancing learned, cost-aware LLM orchestration.

Reasoning models excel in complex problem solving but exhibit a concerning trade off between reasoning capabilities and instruction following abilities. Existing approaches for improving instruction following rely on stronger external models, creating methodological bottlenecks and practical limitations including increased costs and accessibility constraints. We propose a self-supervised RL framework that leverages reasoning models' own internal signals to improve instruction following capabilities without external supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework significantly improves instruction following capabilities while maintaining reasoning performance, offering a scalable and cost-effective approach to enhance instruction following in reasoning models. The data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/Rainier-rq/verl-if.

Large language models (LLMs)-based image captioning has the capability of describing objects not explicitly observed in training data; yet novel objects occur frequently, necessitating the requirement of sustaining up-to-date object knowledge for open-world comprehension. Instead of relying on large amounts of data and scaling up network parameters, we introduce a highly effective retrieval-augmented image captioning method that prompts LLMs with object names retrieved from External Visual--name memory (EVCap). We build ever-changing object knowledge memory using objects' visuals and names, enabling us to (i) update the memory at a minimal cost and (ii) effortlessly augment LLMs with retrieved object names utilizing a lightweight and fast-to-train model. Our model, which was trained only on the COCO dataset, can be adapted to out-domain data without additional fine-tuning or retraining. Our comprehensive experiments conducted on various benchmarks and synthetic commonsense-violating data demonstrate that EVCap, comprising solely 3.97M trainable parameters, exhibits superior performance compared to other methods of equivalent model size scale. Notably, it achieves competitive performance against specialist SOTAs with an enormous number of parameters. Our code is available at https://jiaxuan-li.github.io/EVCap.

Vision language models (VLMs) are increasingly deployed as controllers with access to external tools for complex reasoning and decision-making, yet their effectiveness remains limited by the scarcity of high-quality multimodal trajectories and the cost of manual annotation. We address this challenge with a vision-centric agent tuning framework that automatically synthesizes multimodal trajectories, generates step-wise preference pairs, and trains a VLM controller for robust tool-use reasoning. Our pipeline first constructs M-TRACE, a large-scale dataset of 28.5K multimodal tasks with 177K verified trajectories, enabling imitation-based trajectory tuning. Building on this, we develop MATRIX Agent, a controller finetuned on M-TRACE for step-wise tool reasoning. To achieve finer alignment, we further introduce Pref-X, a set of 11K automatically generated preference pairs, and optimize MATRIX on it via step-wise preference learning. Across three benchmarks, Agent-X, GTA, and GAIA, MATRIX consistently surpasses both open- and closed-source VLMs, demonstrating scalable and effective multimodal tool use. Our data and code is avaliable at https://github.com/mbzuai-oryx/MATRIX.

We investigate the potential of large language models (LLMs) to serve as efficient simulators for agentic search tasks in reinforcement learning (RL), thereby reducing dependence on costly interactions with external search engines. To this end, we first quantify the intrinsic search capability of LLMs via structured prompting and repeated sampling, which we term Self-Search. Our results reveal that LLMs exhibit strong scaling behavior with respect to the inference budget, achieving high pass@k on question-answering benchmarks, including the challenging BrowseComp task. Building on these observations, we introduce Self-Search RL (SSRL), which enhances LLMs' Self-Search capability through format-based and rule-based rewards. SSRL enables models to iteratively refine their knowledge utilization internally, without requiring access to external tools. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that SSRL-trained policy models provide a cost-effective and stable environment for search-driven RL training, reducing reliance on external search engines and facilitating robust sim-to-real transfer. We draw the following conclusions: 1) LLMs possess world knowledge that can be effectively elicited to achieve high performance; 2) SSRL demonstrates the potential of leveraging internal knowledge to reduce hallucination; 3) SSRL-trained models integrate seamlessly with external search engines without additional effort. Our findings highlight the potential of LLMs to support more scalable RL agent training.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently emerged as a promising approach for automating Verilog code generation; however, existing methods primarily emphasize syntactic correctness and often rely on commercial models or external verification tools, which introduces concerns regarding cost, data privacy, and limited guarantees of functional correctness. This work proposes a unified multi-agent framework for reasoning-oriented training data generation with integrated testbench-driven verification, enabling locally fine-tuned LLMs, SiliconMind-V1, to iteratively generate, test, and debug Register-Transfer Level (RTL) designs through test-time scaling. Experimental results on representative benchmarks (VerilogEval-v2, RTLLM-v2, and CVDP) demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art QiMeng-CodeV-R1 in functional correctness while using fewer training resources.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become an essential infrastructure for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), yet their lack of well-defined memory management systems hinders the development of long-context reasoning, continual personalization, and knowledge consistency.Existing models mainly rely on static parameters and short-lived contextual states, limiting their ability to track user preferences or update knowledge over extended periods.While Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) introduces external knowledge in plain text, it remains a stateless workaround without lifecycle control or integration with persistent representations.Recent work has modeled the training and inference cost of LLMs from a memory hierarchy perspective, showing that introducing an explicit memory layer between parameter memory and external retrieval can substantially reduce these costs by externalizing specific knowledge. Beyond computational efficiency, LLMs face broader challenges arising from how information is distributed over time and context, requiring systems capable of managing heterogeneous knowledge spanning different temporal scales and sources. To address this challenge, we propose MemOS, a memory operating system that treats memory as a manageable system resource. It unifies the representation, scheduling, and evolution of plaintext, activation-based, and parameter-level memories, enabling cost-efficient storage and retrieval. As the basic unit, a MemCube encapsulates both memory content and metadata such as provenance and versioning. MemCubes can be composed, migrated, and fused over time, enabling flexible transitions between memory types and bridging retrieval with parameter-based learning. MemOS establishes a memory-centric system framework that brings controllability, plasticity, and evolvability to LLMs, laying the foundation for continual learning and personalized modeling.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) techniques leverage the in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to produce more accurate and relevant responses. Originating from the simple 'retrieve-then-read' approach, the RAG framework has evolved into a highly flexible and modular paradigm. A critical component, the Query Rewriter module, enhances knowledge retrieval by generating a search-friendly query. This method aligns input questions more closely with the knowledge base. Our research identifies opportunities to enhance the Query Rewriter module to Query Rewriter+ by generating multiple queries to overcome the Information Plateaus associated with a single query and by rewriting questions to eliminate Ambiguity, thereby clarifying the underlying intent. We also find that current RAG systems exhibit issues with Irrelevant Knowledge; to overcome this, we propose the Knowledge Filter. These two modules are both based on the instruction-tuned Gemma-2B model, which together enhance response quality. The final identified issue is Redundant Retrieval; we introduce the Memory Knowledge Reservoir and the Retriever Trigger to solve this. The former supports the dynamic expansion of the RAG system's knowledge base in a parameter-free manner, while the latter optimizes the cost for accessing external knowledge, thereby improving resource utilization and response efficiency. These four RAG modules synergistically improve the response quality and efficiency of the RAG system. The effectiveness of these modules has been validated through experiments and ablation studies across six common QA datasets. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/Ancientshi/ERM4.

The capabilities and adoption of deep neural networks (DNNs) grow at an exhilarating pace: Vision models accurately classify human actions in videos and identify cancerous tissue in medical scans as precisely than human experts; large language models answer wide-ranging questions, generate code, and write prose, becoming the topic of everyday dinner-table conversations. Even though their uses are exhilarating, the continually increasing model sizes and computational complexities have a dark side. The economic cost and negative environmental externalities of training and serving models is in evident disharmony with financial viability and climate action goals. Instead of pursuing yet another increase in predictive performance, this dissertation is dedicated to the improvement of neural network efficiency. Specifically, a core contribution addresses the efficiency aspects during online inference. Here, the concept of Continual Inference Networks (CINs) is proposed and explored across four publications. CINs extend prior state-of-the-art methods developed for offline processing of spatio-temporal data and reuse their pre-trained weights, improving their online processing efficiency by an order of magnitude. These advances are attained through a bottom-up computational reorganization and judicious architectural modifications. The benefit to online inference is demonstrated by reformulating several widely used network architectures into CINs, including 3D CNNs, ST-GCNs, and Transformer Encoders. An orthogonal contribution tackles the concurrent adaptation and computational acceleration of a large source model into multiple lightweight derived models. Drawing on fusible adapter networks and structured pruning, Structured Pruning Adapters achieve superior predictive accuracy under aggressive pruning using significantly fewer learned weights compared to fine-tuning with pruning.

Model efficiency is a critical aspect of developing and deploying machine learning models. Inference time and latency directly affect the user experience, and some applications have hard requirements. In addition to inference costs, model training also have direct financial and environmental impacts. Although there are numerous well-established metrics (cost indicators) for measuring model efficiency, researchers and practitioners often assume that these metrics are correlated with each other and report only few of them. In this paper, we thoroughly discuss common cost indicators, their advantages and disadvantages, and how they can contradict each other. We demonstrate how incomplete reporting of cost indicators can lead to partial conclusions and a blurred or incomplete picture of the practical considerations of different models. We further present suggestions to improve reporting of efficiency metrics.

Institutional investors have been increasing the allocation of the illiquid alternative assets such as private equity funds in their portfolios, yet there exists a very limited literature on cash flow forecasting of illiquid alternative assets. The net cash flow of private equity funds typically follow a J-curve pattern, however the timing and the size of the contributions and distributions depend on the investment opportunities. In this paper, we develop a benchmark model and present two novel approaches (direct vs. indirect) to predict the cash flows of private equity funds. We introduce a sliding window approach to apply on our cash flow data because different vintage year funds contain different lengths of cash flow information. We then pass the data to an LSTM/ GRU model to predict the future cash flows either directly or indirectly (based on the benchmark model). We further integrate macroeconomic indicators into our data, which allows us to consider the impact of market environment on cash flows and to apply stress testing. Our results indicate that the direct model is easier to implement compared to the benchmark model and the indirect model, but still the predicted cash flows align better with the actual cash flows. We also show that macroeconomic variables improve the performance of the direct model whereas the impact is not obvious on the indirect model.

We present our transducer model on Librispeech. We study variants to include an external language model (LM) with shallow fusion and subtract an estimated internal LM. This is justified by a Bayesian interpretation where the transducer model prior is given by the estimated internal LM. The subtraction of the internal LM gives us over 14% relative improvement over normal shallow fusion. Our transducer has a separate probability distribution for the non-blank labels which allows for easier combination with the external LM, and easier estimation of the internal LM. We additionally take care of including the end-of-sentence (EOS) probability of the external LM in the last blank probability which further improves the performance. All our code and setups are published.

External memory systems are pivotal for enabling Large Language Model (LLM) agents to maintain persistent knowledge and perform long-horizon decision-making. Existing paradigms typically follow a two-stage process: computationally expensive memory construction (e.g., structuring data into graphs) followed by naive retrieval-augmented generation. However, our empirical analysis reveals two fundamental limitations: complex construction incurs high costs with marginal performance gains, and simple context concatenation fails to bridge the gap between retrieval recall and reasoning accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose CoM (Chain-of-Memory), a novel framework that advocates for a paradigm shift toward lightweight construction paired with sophisticated utilization. CoM introduces a Chain-of-Memory mechanism that organizes retrieved fragments into coherent inference paths through dynamic evolution, utilizing adaptive truncation to prune irrelevant noise. Extensive experiments on the LongMemEval and LoCoMo benchmarks demonstrate that CoM outperforms strong baselines with accuracy gains of 7.5%-10.4%, while drastically reducing computational overhead to approximately 2.7% of token consumption and 6.0% of latency compared to complex memory architectures.

We introduce a novel neural network-based algorithm to compute optimal transport (OT) plans for general cost functionals. In contrast to common Euclidean costs, i.e., ell^1 or ell^2, such functionals provide more flexibility and allow using auxiliary information, such as class labels, to construct the required transport map. Existing methods for general costs are discrete and have limitations in practice, i.e. they do not provide an out-of-sample estimation. We address the challenge of designing a continuous OT approach for general costs that generalizes to new data points in high-dimensional spaces, such as images. Additionally, we provide the theoretical error analysis for our recovered transport plans. As an application, we construct a cost functional to map data distributions while preserving the class-wise structure.

The widespread adoption of AI systems in the economy hinges on their ability to generate economic value that outweighs their inference costs. Evaluating this tradeoff requires metrics that account for both performance and costs. We propose a framework grounded in production theory for evaluating language models by combining accuracy and inference cost. We introduce "cost-of-pass", the expected monetary cost of generating a correct solution. We then define the "frontier cost-of-pass" as the minimum cost-of-pass achievable across available models or the "human-expert, using the approximate cost of hiring an expert. Our analysis reveals distinct economic insights. First, lightweight models are most cost-effective for basic quantitative tasks, large models for knowledge-intensive ones, and reasoning models for complex quantitative problems, despite higher per-token costs. Second, tracking this frontier cost-of-pass over the past year reveals significant progress, particularly for complex quantitative tasks where the cost has roughly halved every few months. Third, to trace key innovations driving this progress, we examine counterfactual frontiers: estimates of cost-efficiency without specific model classes. We find that innovations in lightweight, large, and reasoning models have been essential for pushing the frontier in basic quantitative, knowledge-intensive, and complex quantitative tasks, respectively. Finally, we assess the cost-reductions afforded by common inference-time techniques like majority voting and self-refinement, finding that their marginal accuracy gains rarely justify their costs. Our findings underscore that complementary model-level innovations are the primary drivers of cost-efficiency, and our economic framework provides a principled tool for measuring this progress and guiding deployment.

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach.

The costs of training frontier AI models have grown dramatically in recent years, but there is limited public data on the magnitude and growth of these expenses. This paper develops a detailed cost model to address this gap, estimating training costs using three approaches that account for hardware, energy, cloud rental, and staff expenses. The analysis reveals that the amortized cost to train the most compute-intensive models has grown precipitously at a rate of 2.4x per year since 2016 (95% CI: 2.0x to 3.1x). For key frontier models, such as GPT-4 and Gemini, the most significant expenses are AI accelerator chips and staff costs, each costing tens of millions of dollars. Other notable costs include server components (15-22%), cluster-level interconnect (9-13%), and energy consumption (2-6%). If the trend of growing development costs continues, the largest training runs will cost more than a billion dollars by 2027, meaning that only the most well-funded organizations will be able to finance frontier AI models.

Large Language Models (LLM)-based systems, i.e. interconnected elements that include an LLM as a central component (e.g., conversational agents), are typically monolithic static architectures that rely on a single LLM for all user queries. However, they often require different preprocessing strategies, levels of reasoning, or knowledge. Generalist LLMs (i.e. GPT-4), trained on very large multi-topic corpora, can perform well in a variety of tasks. However, they require significant financial, energy, and hardware resources that may not be justified for basic tasks. This implies potentially investing in unnecessary costs for a given query. To overcome this problem, a routing mechanism routes user queries to the most suitable components, such as smaller LLMs or experts in specific topics. This approach may improve response quality while minimising costs. Routing can be expanded to other components of the conversational agent architecture, such as the selection of optimal embedding strategies. This paper explores key considerations for integrating routing into LLM-based systems, focusing on resource management, cost definition, and strategy selection. Our main contributions include a formalisation of the problem, a novel taxonomy of existing approaches emphasising relevance and resource efficiency, and a comparative analysis of these strategies in relation to industry practices. Finally, we identify critical challenges and directions for future research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become central in academia and industry, raising concerns about privacy, transparency, and misuse. A key issue is the trustworthiness of proprietary models, with open-sourcing often proposed as a solution. However, open-sourcing presents challenges, including potential misuse, financial disincentives, and intellectual property concerns. Proprietary models, backed by private sector resources, are better positioned for return on investment. There are also other approaches that lie somewhere on the spectrum between completely open-source and proprietary. These can largely be categorised into open-source usage limitations protected by licensing, partially open-source (open weights) models, hybrid approaches where obsolete model versions are open-sourced, while competitive versions with market value remain proprietary. Currently, discussions on where on the spectrum future models should fall on remains unbacked and mostly opinionated where industry leaders are weighing in on the discussion. In this paper, we present a data-driven approach by compiling data on open-source development of LLMs, and their contributions in terms of improvements, modifications, and methods. Our goal is to avoid supporting either extreme but rather present data that will support future discussions both by industry experts as well as policy makers. Our findings indicate that open-source contributions can enhance model performance, with trends such as reduced model size and manageable accuracy loss. We also identify positive community engagement patterns and architectures that benefit most from open contributions.