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May 7

PieArena: Frontier Language Agents Achieve MBA-Level Negotiation Performance and Reveal Novel Behavioral Differences

We present an in-depth evaluation of LLMs' ability to negotiate, a central business task that requires strategic reasoning, theory of mind, and economic value creation. To do so, we introduce PieArena, a large-scale negotiation benchmark grounded in multi-agent interactions over realistic scenarios drawn from an MBA negotiation course at an elite business school. We develop a statistically grounded ranking model for continuous negotiation payoffs that produces leaderboards with principled confidence intervals and corrects for experimental asymmetries. We find systematic evidence of human-expert-level performance in which a representative frontier language agent (GPT-5) matches or outperforms trained business-school students, despite a semester of general negotiation instruction and targeted coaching immediately prior to the task. We further study the effects of joint-intentionality agentic scaffolding and observe asymmetric gains, with large improvements for mid- and lower-tier LMs and diminishing returns for frontier LMs. Beyond deal outcomes, PieArena provides a multi-dimensional negotiation behavioral profile, revealing novel cross-model heterogeneity, masked by deal-outcome-only benchmarks, in deception, computation accuracy, instruction compliance, and perceived reputation. Overall, our results suggest that frontier language agents are already intellectually and psychologically capable of deployment in high-stakes economic settings, but deficiencies in robustness and trustworthiness remain open challenges.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 10

Visual Search Asymmetry: Deep Nets and Humans Share Similar Inherent Biases

Visual search is a ubiquitous and often challenging daily task, exemplified by looking for the car keys at home or a friend in a crowd. An intriguing property of some classical search tasks is an asymmetry such that finding a target A among distractors B can be easier than finding B among A. To elucidate the mechanisms responsible for asymmetry in visual search, we propose a computational model that takes a target and a search image as inputs and produces a sequence of eye movements until the target is found. The model integrates eccentricity-dependent visual recognition with target-dependent top-down cues. We compared the model against human behavior in six paradigmatic search tasks that show asymmetry in humans. Without prior exposure to the stimuli or task-specific training, the model provides a plausible mechanism for search asymmetry. We hypothesized that the polarity of search asymmetry arises from experience with the natural environment. We tested this hypothesis by training the model on augmented versions of ImageNet where the biases of natural images were either removed or reversed. The polarity of search asymmetry disappeared or was altered depending on the training protocol. This study highlights how classical perceptual properties can emerge in neural network models, without the need for task-specific training, but rather as a consequence of the statistical properties of the developmental diet fed to the model. All source code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/kreimanlab/VisualSearchAsymmetry.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 5, 2021

Improving equilibrium propagation without weight symmetry through Jacobian homeostasis

Equilibrium propagation (EP) is a compelling alternative to the backpropagation of error algorithm (BP) for computing gradients of neural networks on biological or analog neuromorphic substrates. Still, the algorithm requires weight symmetry and infinitesimal equilibrium perturbations, i.e., nudges, to estimate unbiased gradients efficiently. Both requirements are challenging to implement in physical systems. Yet, whether and how weight asymmetry affects its applicability is unknown because, in practice, it may be masked by biases introduced through the finite nudge. To address this question, we study generalized EP, which can be formulated without weight symmetry, and analytically isolate the two sources of bias. For complex-differentiable non-symmetric networks, we show that the finite nudge does not pose a problem, as exact derivatives can still be estimated via a Cauchy integral. In contrast, weight asymmetry introduces bias resulting in low task performance due to poor alignment of EP's neuronal error vectors compared to BP. To mitigate this issue, we present a new homeostatic objective that directly penalizes functional asymmetries of the Jacobian at the network's fixed point. This homeostatic objective dramatically improves the network's ability to solve complex tasks such as ImageNet 32x32. Our results lay the theoretical groundwork for studying and mitigating the adverse effects of imperfections of physical networks on learning algorithms that rely on the substrate's relaxation dynamics.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 5, 2023

Synthetic Light Curves and Spectra for the Photospheric Phase of a 3D Stripped-Envelope Supernova Explosion Model

We present synthetic light curves and spectra from three-dimensional (3D) Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations based on a 3D core-collapse supernova explosion model of an ultra-stripped 3.5,M_{odot} progenitor. Our calculations predict a fast and faint transient with Delta m_{15} sim 1- 2,mag and peak bolometric luminosity between -15.3,mag and -16.4,mag. Due to a large-scale unipolar asymmetry in the distribution of ^{56}Ni, there is a pronounced viewing-angle dependence with about 1,mag difference between the directions of highest and lowest luminosity. The predicted spectra for this rare class of explosions do not yet match any observed counterpart. They are dominated by prominent Mg~II lines, but features from O, C, Si, and Ca are also found. In particular, the O~I line at 7{774} appears as a blended feature together with Mg~II emission. Our model is not only faster and fainter than the observed Ib/c supernova population, but also shows a correlation between higher peak luminosity and larger Delta m_{15} that is not present in observational samples. A possible explanation is that the unusually small ejecta mass of our model accentuates the viewing-angle dependence of the photometry. We suggest that the viewing-angle dependence of the photometry may be used to constrain asymmetries in explosion models of more typical stripped-envelope supernova progenitors in future.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 28, 2024

Detection asymmetry in solar energetic particle events

Context. Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are detected in interplanetary space in association with flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Sun. The magnetic connection between the observing spacecraft and the solar active region (AR) source of the event is a key parameter in determining whether SEPs are observed and the properties of the particle event. Aims. We investigate whether an east-west asymmetry in the detection of SEP events is present in observations and discuss its possible link to corotation of magnetic flux tubes with the Sun. Methods. We used a published dataset of 239 CMEs recorded between 2006 and 2017 and having source regions both on the front side and far side of the Sun as seen from Earth. We produced distributions of occurrence of in-situ SEP intensity enhancements associated with the CME events, versus \Delta \phi, the separation in longitude between the source active region and the magnetic footpoint of the observing spacecraft based on the nominal Parker spiral. We focused on protons of energy >10 MeV measured by the STEREO A, STEREO B and GOES spacecraft at 1 au. We also considered the occurrence of 71-112 keV electron events detected by MESSENGER between 0.31 and 0.47 au. Results. We find an east-west asymmetry in the detection of >10 MeV proton events and of 71-112 keV electron events. For protons, observers for which the source AR is on the east side of the spacecraft footpoint and not well connected (-180 < \Delta \phi < -40) are 93% more likely to detect an SEP event compared to observers with +40 < \Delta \phi < +180. The asymmetry may be a signature of corotation of magnetic flux tubes with the Sun, given that for events with \Delta \phi < 0 corotation sweeps the particle-filled flux tubes towards the observing spacecraft, while for \Delta \phi > 0 it takes them away from it.

  • 9 authors
·
Nov 12, 2024

On scalable oversight with weak LLMs judging strong LLMs

Scalable oversight protocols aim to enable humans to accurately supervise superhuman AI. In this paper we study debate, where two AI's compete to convince a judge; consultancy, where a single AI tries to convince a judge that asks questions; and compare to a baseline of direct question-answering, where the judge just answers outright without the AI. We use large language models (LLMs) as both AI agents and as stand-ins for human judges, taking the judge models to be weaker than agent models. We benchmark on a diverse range of asymmetries between judges and agents, extending previous work on a single extractive QA task with information asymmetry, to also include mathematics, coding, logic and multimodal reasoning asymmetries. We find that debate outperforms consultancy across all tasks when the consultant is randomly assigned to argue for the correct/incorrect answer. Comparing debate to direct question answering, the results depend on the type of task: in extractive QA tasks with information asymmetry debate outperforms direct question answering, but in other tasks without information asymmetry the results are mixed. Previous work assigned debaters/consultants an answer to argue for. When we allow them to instead choose which answer to argue for, we find judges are less frequently convinced by the wrong answer in debate than in consultancy. Further, we find that stronger debater models increase judge accuracy, though more modestly than in previous studies.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 5, 2024 1

Political Alignment in Large Language Models: A Multidimensional Audit of Psychometric Identity and Behavioral Bias

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into social decision-making, understanding their political positioning and alignment behavior is critical for safety and fairness. This study presents a sociotechnical audit of 26 prominent LLMs, triangulating their positions across three psychometric inventories (Political Compass, SapplyValues, 8 Values) and evaluating their performance on a large-scale news labeling task (N approx 27{,}000). Our results reveal a strong clustering of models in the Libertarian-Left region of the ideological space, encompassing 96.3% of the cohort. Alignment signals appear to be consistent architectural traits rather than stochastic noise (η^2 > 0.90); however, we identify substantial discrepancies in measurement validity. In particular, the Political Compass exhibits a strong negative correlation with cultural progressivism (r=-0.64) when compared against multi-axial instruments, suggesting a conflation of social conservatism with authoritarianism in this context. We further observe a significant divergence between open-weights and closed-source models, with the latter displaying markedly higher cultural progressivism scores (p<10^{-25}). In downstream media analysis, models exhibit a systematic "center-shift," frequently categorizing neutral articles as left-leaning, alongside an asymmetric detection capability in which "Far Left" content is identified with greater accuracy (19.2%) than "Far Right" content (2.0%). These findings suggest that single-axis evaluations are insufficient and that multidimensional auditing frameworks are necessary to characterize alignment behavior in deployed LLMs. Our code and data will be made public.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 7

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. We collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51\%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95\% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95\% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started.

  • 50 authors
·
Oct 6, 2023

Applying the Polynomial Maximization Method to Estimate ARIMA Models with Asymmetric Non-Gaussian Innovations

Classical estimators for ARIMA parameters (MLE, CSS, OLS) assume Gaussian innovations, an assumption frequently violated in financial and economic data exhibiting asymmetric distributions with heavy tails. We develop and validate the second-order polynomial maximization method (PMM2) for estimating ARIMA(p,d,q) models with non-Gaussian innovations. PMM2 is a semiparametric technique that exploits higher-order moments and cumulants without requiring full distributional specification. Monte Carlo experiments (128,000 simulations) across sample sizes N in {100, 200, 500, 1000} and four innovation distributions demonstrate that PMM2 substantially outperforms classical methods for asymmetric innovations. For ARIMA(1,1,0) with N=500, relative efficiency reaches 1.58--1.90 for Gamma, lognormal, and χ^2(3) innovations (37--47\% variance reduction). Under Gaussian innovations PMM2 matches OLS efficiency, avoiding the precision loss typical of robust estimators. The method delivers major gains for moderate asymmetry (|γ_3| geq 0.5) and N geq 200, with computational costs comparable to MLE. PMM2 provides an effective alternative for time series with asymmetric innovations typical of financial markets, macroeconomic indicators, and industrial measurements. Future extensions include seasonal SARIMA models, GARCH integration, and automatic order selection.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 10, 2025 1

Problems with Chinchilla Approach 2: Systematic Biases in IsoFLOP Parabola Fits

Chinchilla Approach 2 is among the most widely used methods for fitting neural scaling laws. Its parabolic approximation introduces systematic biases in compute-optimal allocation estimates, even on noise-free synthetic data. Applied to published Llama 3 IsoFLOP data at open frontier compute scales, these biases imply a parameter underallocation corresponding to 6.5% of the 3.8times10^{25} FLOP training budget and \1.4M (90% CI: 412K-\2.9M) in unnecessary compute at 50% H100 MFU. Simulated multimodal model misallocations show even greater opportunity costs due to higher loss surface asymmetry. Three sources of this error are examined: IsoFLOP sampling grid width (Taylor approximation accuracy), uncentered IsoFLOP sampling, and loss surface asymmetry (α\neq β$). Chinchilla Approach 3 largely eliminates these biases but is often regarded as less data-efficient, numerically unstable, prone to local minima, and harder to implement. Each concern is shown to be unfounded or addressable, especially when the partially linear structure of the objective is exploited via Variable Projection, enabling unbiased inference on all five loss surface parameters through a two-dimensional optimization that is well-conditioned, analytically differentiable, and amenable to dense, or even exhaustive, grid search. It may serve as a more convenient replacement for Approach 2 or a more scalable alternative for adaptations of Approach 3 to richer scaling law formulations.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 21