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May 26

SEAL: Synergistic Co-Evolution of Agents and Learning Environments

Large Language Model (LLM) agents are increasingly improved through interaction, yet most self-evolution methods adapt either the policy or the learning environment in isolation. We identify this structural gap as Agent-Environment Misalignment: the agent's capability frontier changes during training, while the environment that provides supervision remains static or only weakly coupled to the agent's revealed failures. We propose SEAL, a closed-loop co-evolution framework for interactive tool-use agents. SEAL collects on-policy trajectories under executable verification, diagnoses failed rollouts into turn-level failure labels, and uses these diagnoses as a shared signal for both environment-side adaptation and model-side policy optimization. The environment evolves its training-time learning interface by exposing clearer tool affordance cues, constraint information, and recovery-oriented feedback, while the policy is updated with diagnosis-guided advantage reweighting. Extensive experiments across in-distribution and out-of-distribution multi-turn tool-use evaluations show that SEAL improves low-resource agent learning: with only 400 training samples, it yields +8.25 to +26.25 average-point gains across three backbones and exhibits positive out-of-distribution transfer. These results demonstrate the value of jointly adapting the learner and its training-time learning substrate for robust self-improving LLM agents.

AutoEnv: Automated Environments for Measuring Cross-Environment Agent Learning

Humans naturally adapt to diverse environments by learning underlying rules across worlds with different dynamics, observations, and reward structures. In contrast, existing agents typically demonstrate improvements via self-evolving within a single domain, implicitly assuming a fixed environment distribution. Cross-environment learning has remained largely unmeasured: there is no standard collection of controllable, heterogeneous environments, nor a unified way to represent how agents learn. We address these gaps in two steps. First, we propose AutoEnv, an automated framework that treats environments as factorizable distributions over transitions, observations, and rewards, enabling low-cost (4.12 USD on average) generation of heterogeneous worlds. Using AutoEnv, we construct AutoEnv-36, a dataset of 36 environments with 358 validated levels, on which seven language models achieve 12-49% normalized reward, demonstrating the challenge of AutoEnv-36. Second, we formalize agent learning as a component-centric process driven by three stages of Selection, Optimization, and Evaluation applied to an improvable agent component. Using this formulation, we design eight learning methods and evaluate them on AutoEnv-36. Empirically, the gain of any single learning method quickly decrease as the number of environments increases, revealing that fixed learning methods do not scale across heterogeneous environments. Environment-adaptive selection of learning methods substantially improves performance but exhibits diminishing returns as the method space expands. These results highlight both the necessity and the current limitations of agent learning for scalable cross-environment generalization, and position AutoEnv and AutoEnv-36 as a testbed for studying cross-environment agent learning. The code is avaiable at https://github.com/FoundationAgents/AutoEnv.

  • 15 authors
·
Nov 24, 2025 3

Environment-Adaptive Covariate Selection: Learning When to Use Spurious Correlations for Out-of-Distribution Prediction

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 5

Climate-sensitive Urban Planning through Optimization of Tree Placements

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 9, 2023

Deep literature reviews: an application of fine-tuned language models to migration research

This paper presents a hybrid framework for literature reviews that augments traditional bibliometric methods with large language models (LLMs). By fine-tuning open-source LLMs, our approach enables scalable extraction of qualitative insights from large volumes of research content, enhancing both the breadth and depth of knowledge synthesis. To improve annotation efficiency and consistency, we introduce an error-focused validation process in which LLMs generate initial labels and human reviewers correct misclassifications. Applying this framework to over 20000 scientific articles about human migration, we demonstrate that a domain-adapted LLM can serve as a "specialist" model - capable of accurately selecting relevant studies, detecting emerging trends, and identifying critical research gaps. Notably, the LLM-assisted review reveals a growing scholarly interest in climate-induced migration. However, existing literature disproportionately centers on a narrow set of environmental hazards (e.g., floods, droughts, sea-level rise, and land degradation), while overlooking others that more directly affect human health and well-being, such as air and water pollution or infectious diseases. This imbalance highlights the need for more comprehensive research that goes beyond physical environmental changes to examine their ecological and societal consequences, particularly in shaping migration as an adaptive response. Overall, our proposed framework demonstrates the potential of fine-tuned LLMs to conduct more efficient, consistent, and insightful literature reviews across disciplines, ultimately accelerating knowledge synthesis and scientific discovery.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 17, 2025

RainShift: A Benchmark for Precipitation Downscaling Across Geographies

Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolution for local-scale risk-assessments is not computationally feasible. Deep learning-based super-resolution models offer a promising solution to downscale ESM outputs to higher resolutions by learning from data. Yet, due to regional variations in climatic processes, these models typically require retraining for each geographical area-demanding high-resolution observational data, which is unevenly available across the globe. This highlights the need to assess how well these models generalize across geographic regions. To address this, we introduce RainShift, a dataset and benchmark for evaluating downscaling under geographic distribution shifts. We evaluate state-of-the-art downscaling approaches including GANs and diffusion models in generalizing across data gaps between the Global North and Global South. Our findings reveal substantial performance drops in out-of-distribution regions, depending on model and geographic area. While expanding the training domain generally improves generalization, it is insufficient to overcome shifts between geographically distinct regions. We show that addressing these shifts through, for example, data alignment can improve spatial generalization. Our work advances the global applicability of downscaling methods and represents a step toward reducing inequities in access to high-resolution climate information.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 7, 2025

Parameter-free Online Test-time Adaptation

Training state-of-the-art vision models has become prohibitively expensive for researchers and practitioners. For the sake of accessibility and resource reuse, it is important to focus on adapting these models to a variety of downstream scenarios. An interesting and practical paradigm is online test-time adaptation, according to which training data is inaccessible, no labelled data from the test distribution is available, and adaptation can only happen at test time and on a handful of samples. In this paper, we investigate how test-time adaptation methods fare for a number of pre-trained models on a variety of real-world scenarios, significantly extending the way they have been originally evaluated. We show that they perform well only in narrowly-defined experimental setups and sometimes fail catastrophically when their hyperparameters are not selected for the same scenario in which they are being tested. Motivated by the inherent uncertainty around the conditions that will ultimately be encountered at test time, we propose a particularly "conservative" approach, which addresses the problem with a Laplacian Adjusted Maximum-likelihood Estimation (LAME) objective. By adapting the model's output (not its parameters), and solving our objective with an efficient concave-convex procedure, our approach exhibits a much higher average accuracy across scenarios than existing methods, while being notably faster and have a much lower memory footprint. The code is available at https://github.com/fiveai/LAME.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 14, 2022

Efficient Online Processing with Deep Neural Networks

The capabilities and adoption of deep neural networks (DNNs) grow at an exhilarating pace: Vision models accurately classify human actions in videos and identify cancerous tissue in medical scans as precisely than human experts; large language models answer wide-ranging questions, generate code, and write prose, becoming the topic of everyday dinner-table conversations. Even though their uses are exhilarating, the continually increasing model sizes and computational complexities have a dark side. The economic cost and negative environmental externalities of training and serving models is in evident disharmony with financial viability and climate action goals. Instead of pursuing yet another increase in predictive performance, this dissertation is dedicated to the improvement of neural network efficiency. Specifically, a core contribution addresses the efficiency aspects during online inference. Here, the concept of Continual Inference Networks (CINs) is proposed and explored across four publications. CINs extend prior state-of-the-art methods developed for offline processing of spatio-temporal data and reuse their pre-trained weights, improving their online processing efficiency by an order of magnitude. These advances are attained through a bottom-up computational reorganization and judicious architectural modifications. The benefit to online inference is demonstrated by reformulating several widely used network architectures into CINs, including 3D CNNs, ST-GCNs, and Transformer Encoders. An orthogonal contribution tackles the concurrent adaptation and computational acceleration of a large source model into multiple lightweight derived models. Drawing on fusible adapter networks and structured pruning, Structured Pruning Adapters achieve superior predictive accuracy under aggressive pruning using significantly fewer learned weights compared to fine-tuning with pruning.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 23, 2023

Adaptive coding efficiency in recurrent cortical circuits via gain control

Sensory systems across all modalities and species exhibit adaptation to continuously changing input statistics. Individual neurons have been shown to modulate their response gains so as to maximize information transmission in different stimulus contexts. Experimental measurements have revealed additional, nuanced sensory adaptation effects including changes in response maxima and minima, tuning curve repulsion from the adapter stimulus, and stimulus-driven response decorrelation. Existing explanations of these phenomena rely on changes in inter-neuronal synaptic efficacy, which, while more flexible, are unlikely to operate as rapidly or reversibly as single neuron gain modulations. Using published V1 population adaptation data, we show that propagation of single neuron gain changes in a recurrent network is sufficient to capture the entire set of observed adaptation effects. We propose a novel adaptive efficient coding objective with which single neuron gains are modulated, maximizing the fidelity of the stimulus representation while minimizing overall activity in the network. From this objective, we analytically derive a set of gains that optimize the trade-off between preserving information about the stimulus and conserving metabolic resources. Our model generalizes well-established concepts of single neuron adaptive gain control to recurrent populations, and parsimoniously explains experimental adaptation data.

  • 4 authors
·
May 31, 2023

HY-WU (Part I): An Extensible Functional Neural Memory Framework and An Instantiation in Text-Guided Image Editing

Foundation models are transitioning from offline predictors to deployed systems expected to operate over long time horizons. In real deployments, objectives are not fixed: domains drift, user preferences evolve, and new tasks appear after the model has shipped. This elevates continual learning and instant personalization from optional features to core architectural requirements. Yet most adaptation pipelines still follow a static weight paradigm: after training (or after any adaptation step), inference executes a single parameter vector regardless of user intent, domain, or instance-specific constraints. This treats the trained or adapted model as a single point in parameter space. In heterogeneous and continually evolving regimes, distinct objectives can induce separated feasible regions over parameters, forcing any single shared update into compromise, interference, or overspecialization. As a result, continual learning and personalization are often implemented as repeated overwriting of shared weights, risking degradation of previously learned behaviors. We propose HY-WU (Weight Unleashing), a memory-first adaptation framework that shifts adaptation pressure away from overwriting a single shared parameter point. HY-WU implements functional (operator-level) memory as a neural module: a generator that synthesizes weight updates on-the-fly from the instance condition, yielding instance-specific operators without test-time optimization.

MOSS: Self-Evolution through Source-Level Rewriting in Autonomous Agent Systems

Autonomous agentic systems are largely static after deployment: they do not learn from user interactions, and recurring failures persist until the next human-driven update ships a fix. Self-evolving agents have emerged in response, but all confine evolution to text-mutable artifacts -- skill files, prompt configurations, memory schemas, workflow graphs -- and leave the agent harness untouched. Since routing, hook ordering, state invariants, and dispatch live in code rather than in any text artifact, an entire class of structural failure is physically unreachable from the text layer. We argue that source-level adaptation is a fundamentally more general medium: it is Turing-complete, a strict superset of every text-mutable scope, takes effect deterministically rather than through base-model compliance, and does not erode under long-context drift. We present MOSS, a system that performs self-rewriting at the source level on production agentic substrates. Each evolution is anchored to an automatically curated batch of production-failure evidence and proceeds through a deterministic multi-stage pipeline; code modification is delegated to a pluggable external coding-agent CLI while MOSS retains stage ordering and verdicts. Candidates are verified by replaying the batch against the candidate image in ephemeral trial workers, then promoted via user-consent-gated, in-place container swap with health-probe-gated rollback. On OpenClaw, MOSS lifts a four-task mean grader score from 0.25 to 0.61 in a single cycle without human intervention.

  • 7 authors
·
May 20

Met^2Net: A Decoupled Two-Stage Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Model for Complex Meteorological Systems

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 23, 2025 1

AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learning

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 25, 2023

Unsupervised Hierarchical Domain Adaptation for Adverse Weather Optical Flow

Optical flow estimation has made great progress, but usually suffers from degradation under adverse weather. Although semi/full-supervised methods have made good attempts, the domain shift between the synthetic and real adverse weather images would deteriorate their performance. To alleviate this issue, our start point is to unsupervisedly transfer the knowledge from source clean domain to target degraded domain. Our key insight is that adverse weather does not change the intrinsic optical flow of the scene, but causes a significant difference for the warp error between clean and degraded images. In this work, we propose the first unsupervised framework for adverse weather optical flow via hierarchical motion-boundary adaptation. Specifically, we first employ image translation to construct the transformation relationship between clean and degraded domains. In motion adaptation, we utilize the flow consistency knowledge to align the cross-domain optical flows into a motion-invariance common space, where the optical flow from clean weather is used as the guidance-knowledge to obtain a preliminary optical flow for adverse weather. Furthermore, we leverage the warp error inconsistency which measures the motion misalignment of the boundary between the clean and degraded domains, and propose a joint intra- and inter-scene boundary contrastive adaptation to refine the motion boundary. The hierarchical motion and boundary adaptation jointly promotes optical flow in a unified framework. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments have been performed to verify the superiority of the proposed method.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 23, 2023

Text2Earth: Unlocking Text-driven Remote Sensing Image Generation with a Global-Scale Dataset and a Foundation Model

Generative foundation models have advanced large-scale text-driven natural image generation, becoming a prominent research trend across various vertical domains. However, in the remote sensing field, there is still a lack of research on large-scale text-to-image (text2image) generation technology. Existing remote sensing image-text datasets are small in scale and confined to specific geographic areas and scene types. Besides, existing text2image methods have struggled to achieve global-scale, multi-resolution controllable, and unbounded image generation. To address these challenges, this paper presents two key contributions: the Git-10M dataset and the Text2Earth foundation model. Git-10M is a global-scale image-text dataset comprising 10 million image-text pairs, 5 times larger than the previous largest one. The dataset covers a wide range of geographic scenes and contains resolution information, significantly surpassing existing datasets in both size and diversity. Building on Git-10M, we propose Text2Earth, a 1.3 billion parameter generative foundation model based on the diffusion framework to model global-scale remote sensing scenes. Text2Earth integrates a resolution guidance mechanism, enabling users to specify image resolutions. A dynamic condition adaptation strategy is proposed for training and inference to improve image quality. Text2Earth excels in zero-shot text2image generation and demonstrates robust generalization and flexibility across multiple tasks, including unbounded scene construction, image editing, and cross-modal image generation. This robust capability surpasses previous models restricted to the basic fixed size and limited scene types. On the previous benchmark dataset, Text2Earth outperforms previous models with an improvement of +26.23 FID and +20.95% Zero-shot Cls-OA metric.Our project page is https://chen-yang-liu.github.io/Text2Earth

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 1, 2025

Hydra: Multi-head Low-rank Adaptation for Parameter Efficient Fine-tuning

The recent surge in large-scale foundation models has spurred the development of efficient methods for adapting these models to various downstream tasks. Low-rank adaptation methods, such as LoRA, have gained significant attention due to their outstanding parameter efficiency and no additional inference latency. This paper investigates a more general form of adapter module based on the analysis that parallel and sequential adaptation branches learn novel and general features during fine-tuning, respectively. The proposed method, named Hydra, due to its multi-head computational branches, combines parallel and sequential branch to integrate capabilities, which is more expressive than existing single branch methods and enables the exploration of a broader range of optimal points in the fine-tuning process. In addition, the proposed adaptation method explicitly leverages the pre-trained weights by performing a linear combination of the pre-trained features. It allows the learned features to have better generalization performance across diverse downstream tasks. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of each adaptation branch with empirical evidence. Through an extensive range of experiments, encompassing comparisons and ablation studies, we substantiate the efficiency and demonstrate the superior performance of Hydra. This comprehensive evaluation underscores the potential impact and effectiveness of Hydra in a variety of applications. Our code is available on https://github.com/extremebird/Hydra

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 13, 2023 2

A Decoupled Basis-Vector-Driven Generative Framework for Dynamic Multi-Objective Optimization

Dynamic multi-objective optimization requires continuous tracking of moving Pareto fronts. Existing methods struggle with irregular mutations and data sparsity, primarily facing three challenges: the non-linear coupling of dynamic modes, negative transfer from outdated historical data, and the cold-start problem during environmental switches. To address these issues, this paper proposes a decoupled basis-vector-driven generative framework (DB-GEN). First, to resolve non-linear coupling, the framework employs the discrete wavelet transform to separate evolutionary trajectories into low-frequency trends and high-frequency details. Second, to mitigate negative transfer, it learns transferable basis vectors via sparse dictionary learning rather than directly memorizing historical instances. Recomposing these bases under a topology-aware contrastive constraint constructs a structured latent manifold. Finally, to overcome the cold-start problem, a surrogate-assisted search paradigm samples initial populations from this manifold. Pre-trained on 120 million solutions, DB-GEN performs direct online inference without retraining or fine-tuning. This zero-shot generation process executes in milliseconds, requiring approximately 0.2 seconds per environmental change. Experimental results demonstrate that DB-GEN improves tracking accuracy across various dynamic benchmarks compared to existing algorithms.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 31

Training-Free Adaptation of Diffusion Models via Doob's h-Transform

Adaptation methods have been a workhorse for unlocking the transformative power of pre-trained diffusion models in diverse applications. Existing approaches often abstract adaptation objectives as a reward function and steer diffusion models to generate high-reward samples. However, these approaches can incur high computational overhead due to additional training, or rely on stringent assumptions on the reward such as differentiability. Moreover, despite their empirical success, theoretical justification and guarantees are seldom established. In this paper, we propose DOIT (Doob-Oriented Inference-time Transformation), a training-free and computationally efficient adaptation method that applies to generic, non-differentiable rewards. The key framework underlying our method is a measure transport formulation that seeks to transport the pre-trained generative distribution to a high-reward target distribution. We leverage Doob's h-transform to realize this transport, which induces a dynamic correction to the diffusion sampling process and enables efficient simulation-based computation without modifying the pre-trained model. Theoretically, we establish a high probability convergence guarantee to the target high-reward distribution via characterizing the approximation error in the dynamic Doob's correction. Empirically, on D4RL offline RL benchmarks, our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines while preserving sampling efficiency.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 18

A Unified Continual Learning Framework with General Parameter-Efficient Tuning

The "pre-training rightarrow downstream adaptation" presents both new opportunities and challenges for Continual Learning (CL). Although the recent state-of-the-art in CL is achieved through Parameter-Efficient-Tuning (PET) adaptation paradigm, only prompt has been explored, limiting its application to Transformers only. In this paper, we position prompting as one instantiation of PET, and propose a unified CL framework with general PET, dubbed as Learning-Accumulation-Ensemble (LAE). PET, e.g., using Adapter, LoRA, or Prefix, can adapt a pre-trained model to downstream tasks with fewer parameters and resources. Given a PET method, our LAE framework incorporates it for CL with three novel designs. 1) Learning: the pre-trained model adapts to the new task by tuning an online PET module, along with our adaptation speed calibration to align different PET modules, 2) Accumulation: the task-specific knowledge learned by the online PET module is accumulated into an offline PET module through momentum update, 3) Ensemble: During inference, we respectively construct two experts with online/offline PET modules (which are favored by the novel/historical tasks) for prediction ensemble. We show that LAE is compatible with a battery of PET methods and gains strong CL capability. For example, LAE with Adaptor PET surpasses the prior state-of-the-art by 1.3% and 3.6% in last-incremental accuracy on CIFAR100 and ImageNet-R datasets, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/gqk/LAE.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 17, 2023

Towards Robust and Efficient Cloud-Edge Elastic Model Adaptation via Selective Entropy Distillation

The conventional deep learning paradigm often involves training a deep model on a server and then deploying the model or its distilled ones to resource-limited edge devices. Usually, the models shall remain fixed once deployed (at least for some period) due to the potential high cost of model adaptation for both the server and edge sides. However, in many real-world scenarios, the test environments may change dynamically (known as distribution shifts), which often results in degraded performance. Thus, one has to adapt the edge models promptly to attain promising performance. Moreover, with the increasing data collected at the edge, this paradigm also fails to further adapt the cloud model for better performance. To address these, we encounter two primary challenges: 1) the edge model has limited computation power and may only support forward propagation; 2) the data transmission budget between cloud and edge devices is limited in latency-sensitive scenarios. In this paper, we establish a Cloud-Edge Elastic Model Adaptation (CEMA) paradigm in which the edge models only need to perform forward propagation and the edge models can be adapted online. In our CEMA, to reduce the communication burden, we devise two criteria to exclude unnecessary samples from uploading to the cloud, i.e., dynamic unreliable and low-informative sample exclusion. Based on the uploaded samples, we update and distribute the affine parameters of normalization layers by distilling from the stronger foundation model to the edge model with a sample replay strategy. Extensive experimental results on ImageNet-C and ImageNet-R verify the effectiveness of our CEMA.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 27, 2024

D-CTNet: A Dual-Branch Channel-Temporal Forecasting Network with Frequency-Domain Correction

Accurate Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for collaborative design of complex systems, Digital Twin building, and maintenance ahead of time. However, the collaborative industrial environment presents new challenges for MTS forecasting models: models should decouple complex inter-variable dependencies while addressing non-stationary distribution shift brought by environmental changes. To address these challenges and improve collaborative sensing reliability, we propose a Patch-Based Dual-Branch Channel-Temporal Forecasting Network (D-CTNet). Particularly, with a parallel dual-branch design incorporating linear temporal modeling layer and channel attention mechanism, our method explicitly decouples and jointly learns intra-channel temporal evolution patterns and dynamic multivariate correlations. Furthermore, a global patch attention fusion module goes beyond the local window scope to model long range dependencies. Most importantly, aiming at non-stationarity, a Frequency-Domain Stationarity Correction mechanism adaptively suppresses distribution shift impacts from environment change by spectrum alignment. Evaluations on seven benchmark datasets show that our model achieves better forecasting accuracy and robustness compared with state-of-the-art methods. Our work shows great promise as a new forecasting engine for industrial collaborative systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 30, 2025

Neuro-Modulated Hebbian Learning for Fully Test-Time Adaptation

Fully test-time adaptation aims to adapt the network model based on sequential analysis of input samples during the inference stage to address the cross-domain performance degradation problem of deep neural networks. We take inspiration from the biological plausibility learning where the neuron responses are tuned based on a local synapse-change procedure and activated by competitive lateral inhibition rules. Based on these feed-forward learning rules, we design a soft Hebbian learning process which provides an unsupervised and effective mechanism for online adaptation. We observe that the performance of this feed-forward Hebbian learning for fully test-time adaptation can be significantly improved by incorporating a feedback neuro-modulation layer. It is able to fine-tune the neuron responses based on the external feedback generated by the error back-propagation from the top inference layers. This leads to our proposed neuro-modulated Hebbian learning (NHL) method for fully test-time adaptation. With the unsupervised feed-forward soft Hebbian learning being combined with a learned neuro-modulator to capture feedback from external responses, the source model can be effectively adapted during the testing process. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our proposed method can significantly improve the adaptation performance of network models and outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 1, 2023

ACE2-SOM: Coupling to a slab ocean and learning the sensitivity of climate to changes in CO_2

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to substantial changes in CO_2 or other greenhouse gases. As an initial step we couple the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 to a slab ocean model (hereafter ACE2-SOM) and train it on output from a collection of equilibrium-climate physics-based reference simulations with varying levels of CO_2. We test it in equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate scenarios with CO_2 concentrations seen and unseen in training. ACE2-SOM performs well in equilibrium-climate inference with both in-sample and out-of-sample CO_2 concentrations, accurately reproducing the emergent time-mean spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change with CO_2 doubling, tripling, or quadrupling. In addition, the vertical profile of atmospheric warming and change in extreme precipitation rates with increased CO_2 closely agree with the reference model. Non-equilibrium-climate inference is more challenging. With CO_2 increasing gradually at a rate of 2% year^{-1}, ACE2-SOM can accurately emulate the global annual mean trends of surface and lower-to-middle atmosphere fields but produces unphysical jumps in stratospheric fields. With an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, ML-controlled fields transition unrealistically quickly to the 4xCO_2 regime. In doing so they violate global energy conservation and exhibit unphysical sensitivities of and surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes to instantaneous changes in CO_2. Future emulator development needed to address these issues should improve its generalizability to diverse climate change scenarios.

  • 9 authors
·
Dec 5, 2024

Atmospheric Transport Modeling of CO_2 with Neural Networks

Accurately describing the distribution of CO_2 in the atmosphere with atmospheric tracer transport models is essential for greenhouse gas monitoring and verification support systems to aid implementation of international climate agreements. Large deep neural networks are poised to revolutionize weather prediction, which requires 3D modeling of the atmosphere. While similar in this regard, atmospheric transport modeling is subject to new challenges. Both, stable predictions for longer time horizons and mass conservation throughout need to be achieved, while IO plays a larger role compared to computational costs. In this study we explore four different deep neural networks (UNet, GraphCast, Spherical Fourier Neural Operator and SwinTransformer) which have proven as state-of-the-art in weather prediction to assess their usefulness for atmospheric tracer transport modeling. For this, we assemble the CarbonBench dataset, a systematic benchmark tailored for machine learning emulators of Eulerian atmospheric transport. Through architectural adjustments, we decouple the performance of our emulators from the distribution shift caused by a steady rise in atmospheric CO_2. More specifically, we center CO_2 input fields to zero mean and then use an explicit flux scheme and a mass fixer to assure mass balance. This design enables stable and mass conserving transport for over 6 months with all four neural network architectures. In our study, the SwinTransformer displays particularly strong emulation skill (90-day R^2 > 0.99), with physically plausible emulation even for forward runs of multiple years. This work paves the way forward towards high resolution forward and inverse modeling of inert trace gases with neural networks.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 20, 2024

Model Predictive Task Sampling for Efficient and Robust Adaptation

Foundation models have revolutionized general-purpose problem-solving, offering rapid task adaptation through pretraining, meta-training, and finetuning. Recent crucial advances in these paradigms reveal the importance of challenging task prioritized sampling to enhance adaptation robustness under distribution shifts. However, ranking task difficulties over iteration as a preliminary step typically requires exhaustive task evaluation, which is practically unaffordable in computation and data-annotation. This study provides a novel perspective to illuminate the possibility of leveraging the dual importance of adaptation robustness and learning efficiency, particularly in scenarios where task evaluation is risky or costly, such as iterative agent-environment interactions for robotic policy evaluation or computationally intensive inference steps for finetuning foundation models. Firstly, we introduce Model Predictive Task Sampling (MPTS), a framework that bridges the task space and adaptation risk landscape, providing a theoretical foundation for robust active task sampling. MPTS employs a generative model to characterize the episodic optimization process and predicts task-specific adaptation risk via posterior inference. The resulting risk learner amortizes the costly evaluation of task adaptation performance and provably approximates task difficulty rankings. MPTS seamlessly integrates into zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised finetuning settings. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments in pattern recognition using foundation models and sequential decision-making. Our results demonstrate that MPTS significantly enhances adaptation robustness for tail or out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks and improves learning efficiency compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The code is available at the project site https://github.com/thu-rllab/MPTS.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 19, 2025

Prithvi WxC: Foundation Model for Weather and Climate

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

  • 29 authors
·
Sep 20, 2024 4

VIA: A Spatiotemporal Video Adaptation Framework for Global and Local Video Editing

Video editing stands as a cornerstone of digital media, from entertainment and education to professional communication. However, previous methods often overlook the necessity of comprehensively understanding both global and local contexts, leading to inaccurate and inconsistency edits in the spatiotemporal dimension, especially for long videos. In this paper, we introduce VIA, a unified spatiotemporal VIdeo Adaptation framework for global and local video editing, pushing the limits of consistently editing minute-long videos. First, to ensure local consistency within individual frames, the foundation of VIA is a novel test-time editing adaptation method, which adapts a pre-trained image editing model for improving consistency between potential editing directions and the text instruction, and adapts masked latent variables for precise local control. Furthermore, to maintain global consistency over the video sequence, we introduce spatiotemporal adaptation that adapts consistent attention variables in key frames and strategically applies them across the whole sequence to realize the editing effects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, compared to baseline methods, our VIA approach produces edits that are more faithful to the source videos, more coherent in the spatiotemporal context, and more precise in local control. More importantly, we show that VIA can achieve consistent long video editing in minutes, unlocking the potentials for advanced video editing tasks over long video sequences.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 18, 2024 1

Proactive Model Adaptation Against Concept Drift for Online Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 11, 2024

Emergent Complexity and Zero-shot Transfer via Unsupervised Environment Design

A wide range of reinforcement learning (RL) problems - including robustness, transfer learning, unsupervised RL, and emergent complexity - require specifying a distribution of tasks or environments in which a policy will be trained. However, creating a useful distribution of environments is error prone, and takes a significant amount of developer time and effort. We propose Unsupervised Environment Design (UED) as an alternative paradigm, where developers provide environments with unknown parameters, and these parameters are used to automatically produce a distribution over valid, solvable environments. Existing approaches to automatically generating environments suffer from common failure modes: domain randomization cannot generate structure or adapt the difficulty of the environment to the agent's learning progress, and minimax adversarial training leads to worst-case environments that are often unsolvable. To generate structured, solvable environments for our protagonist agent, we introduce a second, antagonist agent that is allied with the environment-generating adversary. The adversary is motivated to generate environments which maximize regret, defined as the difference between the protagonist and antagonist agent's return. We call our technique Protagonist Antagonist Induced Regret Environment Design (PAIRED). Our experiments demonstrate that PAIRED produces a natural curriculum of increasingly complex environments, and PAIRED agents achieve higher zero-shot transfer performance when tested in highly novel environments.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 3, 2020

Continual Test-Time Domain Adaptation

Test-time domain adaptation aims to adapt a source pre-trained model to a target domain without using any source data. Existing works mainly consider the case where the target domain is static. However, real-world machine perception systems are running in non-stationary and continually changing environments where the target domain distribution can change over time. Existing methods, which are mostly based on self-training and entropy regularization, can suffer from these non-stationary environments. Due to the distribution shift over time in the target domain, pseudo-labels become unreliable. The noisy pseudo-labels can further lead to error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting. To tackle these issues, we propose a continual test-time adaptation approach~(CoTTA) which comprises two parts. Firstly, we propose to reduce the error accumulation by using weight-averaged and augmentation-averaged predictions which are often more accurate. On the other hand, to avoid catastrophic forgetting, we propose to stochastically restore a small part of the neurons to the source pre-trained weights during each iteration to help preserve source knowledge in the long-term. The proposed method enables the long-term adaptation for all parameters in the network. CoTTA is easy to implement and can be readily incorporated in off-the-shelf pre-trained models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on four classification tasks and a segmentation task for continual test-time adaptation, on which we outperform existing methods. Our code is available at https://qin.ee/cotta.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 25, 2022

COP-GEN: Latent Diffusion Transformer for Copernicus Earth Observation Data

Earth observation applications increasingly rely on data from multiple sensors, including optical, radar, elevation, and land-cover. Relationships between modalities are fundamental for data integration but are inherently non-injective: identical conditioning information can correspond to multiple physically plausible observations, and should be parametrised as conditional distributions. Deterministic models, by contrast, collapse toward conditional means and fail to represent the uncertainty and variability required for tasks such as data completion and cross-sensor translation. We introduce COP-GEN, a multimodal latent diffusion transformer that models the joint distribution of heterogeneous EO modalities at their native spatial resolutions. By parameterising cross-modal mappings as conditional distributions, COP-GEN enables flexible any-to-any conditional generation, including zero-shot modality translation without task-specific retraining. Experiments show that COP-GEN generates diverse yet physically consistent realisations while maintaining strong peak fidelity across optical, radar, and elevation modalities. Qualitative and quantitative analyses demonstrate that the model captures meaningful cross-modal structure and adapts its output uncertainty as conditioning information increases. We release a stochastic benchmark built from multi-temporal Sentinel-2 observations that enables distribution-level comparison of generative EO models. On this benchmark, COP-GEN covers 90% of the real observation manifold and 63% of its per-band reflectance range, while the strongest competing method collapses to 2.8% and 18%, respectively. These results highlight the importance of stochastic generative modeling for EO and motivate evaluation protocols beyond single-reference, pointwise metrics. Website: https://miquel-espinosa.github.io/cop-gen

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 28

Generative Causal Representation Learning for Out-of-Distribution Motion Forecasting

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 16, 2023

Effect Heterogeneity with Earth Observation in Randomized Controlled Trials: Exploring the Role of Data, Model, and Evaluation Metric Choice

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Adverse Weather Image Translation with Asymmetric and Uncertainty-aware GAN

Adverse weather image translation belongs to the unsupervised image-to-image (I2I) translation task which aims to transfer adverse condition domain (eg, rainy night) to standard domain (eg, day). It is a challenging task because images from adverse domains have some artifacts and insufficient information. Recently, many studies employing Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have achieved notable success in I2I translation but there are still limitations in applying them to adverse weather enhancement. Symmetric architecture based on bidirectional cycle-consistency loss is adopted as a standard framework for unsupervised domain transfer methods. However, it can lead to inferior translation result if the two domains have imbalanced information. To address this issue, we propose a novel GAN model, i.e., AU-GAN, which has an asymmetric architecture for adverse domain translation. We insert a proposed feature transfer network ({T}-net) in only a normal domain generator (i.e., rainy night-> day) to enhance encoded features of the adverse domain image. In addition, we introduce asymmetric feature matching for disentanglement of encoded features. Finally, we propose uncertainty-aware cycle-consistency loss to address the regional uncertainty of a cyclic reconstructed image. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by qualitative and quantitative comparisons with state-of-the-art models. Codes are available at https://github.com/jgkwak95/AU-GAN.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 8, 2021

A Survey of Self-Evolving Agents: On Path to Artificial Super Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities but remain fundamentally static, unable to adapt their internal parameters to novel tasks, evolving knowledge domains, or dynamic interaction contexts. As LLMs are increasingly deployed in open-ended, interactive environments, this static nature has become a critical bottleneck, necessitating agents that can adaptively reason, act, and evolve in real time. This paradigm shift -- from scaling static models to developing self-evolving agents -- has sparked growing interest in architectures and methods enabling continual learning and adaptation from data, interactions, and experiences. This survey provides the first systematic and comprehensive review of self-evolving agents, organized around three foundational dimensions -- what to evolve, when to evolve, and how to evolve. We examine evolutionary mechanisms across agent components (e.g., models, memory, tools, architecture), categorize adaptation methods by stages (e.g., intra-test-time, inter-test-time), and analyze the algorithmic and architectural designs that guide evolutionary adaptation (e.g., scalar rewards, textual feedback, single-agent and multi-agent systems). Additionally, we analyze evaluation metrics and benchmarks tailored for self-evolving agents, highlight applications in domains such as coding, education, and healthcare, and identify critical challenges and research directions in safety, scalability, and co-evolutionary dynamics. By providing a structured framework for understanding and designing self-evolving agents, this survey establishes a roadmap for advancing adaptive agentic systems in both research and real-world deployments, ultimately shedding lights to pave the way for the realization of Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), where agents evolve autonomously, performing at or beyond human-level intelligence across a wide array of tasks.

  • 27 authors
·
Jul 28, 2025 4

Multi-fidelity climate model parameterization for better generalization and extrapolation

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 18, 2023

Queryable LoRA: Instruction-Regularized Routing Over Shared Low-Rank Update Atoms

We present a data-adaptive method for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large neural networks. Standard low-rank adaptation methods improve efficiency by restricting each layer update to a fixed low-rank form, but this static parameterization can be too rigid when the appropriate correction depends on the input and on the evolving depth-wise computation of the network. Our approach replaces a purely layer-local adapter with a shared queryable memory of low-rank update atoms. For each block of layers, the model forms a query from the current low-rank state and a running summary of previous blocks, uses this query to retrieve a content-dependent combination of shared update components via attention, and applies the resulting routed operator within the low-rank bottleneck. In this way, the method retains the efficiency and scalability of low-rank adaptation while allowing the effective update to vary across inputs and to share reusable structure across layers. The resulting architecture provides a principled middle ground between static LoRA-style updates and fully generated parameter updates: it remains compact and parameter-efficient while supporting dynamic, context-sensitive adaptation. Further, we incorporate instruction-regularization by augmenting routing logits with a language-induced prior over update atoms, thereby biasing the selection of low-rank transformations toward semantically relevant directions without generating unconstrained parameter updates. Experiments on noisy non-linear regression tasks and LLM fine-tuning suggest that this queryable update-memory formulation can improve final test performance and training stability compared to standard low-rank adaptation, while using a comparable number of trainable parameters.

JerzakLabs Jerzak Labs
·
May 7 1

Low-Rank Adaptation of Geospatial Foundation Models for Wildfire Mapping Using Sentinel-2 Data

Wildfire burned-area mapping is essential for damage assessment, emissions modeling, and understanding fire-climate interactions across diverse ecological regions. Recent geospatial foundation models provide strong general-purpose representations for satellite imagery, yet there is still no clear understanding of how to efficiently adapt these models for downstream Earth observation tasks, particularly under geographic and temporal domain shift. This study evaluates three state-of-the-art Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) - Terramind, DINOv3, and Prithvi-v2 - for burned-area mapping across the United States and Canada using Sentinel-2 data. Leveraging 3,820 wildfire events from 2017-2023, we conduct spatial and temporal generalization tests across diverse biomes. We systematically compare full fine-tuning, decoder-only fine-tuning, and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for adapting each model. Across all experiments, LoRA provides the strongest cross-domain generalization while updating less than 1% of parameters, demonstrating a favorable trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. Prithvi-v2 with LoRA achieves the highest overall accuracy and the largest improvement compared to full fine-tuning. These findings indicate that geospatial foundation models, when adapted using lightweight parameter-efficient methods such as LoRA, offer a robust and scalable solution for large-scale burned-area mapping. Code is available at https://github.com/alishibli97/wildfire-lora-gfm.

  • 3 authors
·
May 5

STORI: A Benchmark and Taxonomy for Stochastic Environments

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 1, 2025

HIVEX: A High-Impact Environment Suite for Multi-Agent Research (extended version)

Games have been vital test beds for the rapid development of Agent-based research. Remarkable progress has been achieved in the past, but it is unclear if the findings equip for real-world problems. While pressure grows, some of the most critical ecological challenges can find mitigation and prevention solutions through technology and its applications. Most real-world domains include multi-agent scenarios and require machine-machine and human-machine collaboration. Open-source environments have not advanced and are often toy scenarios, too abstract or not suitable for multi-agent research. By mimicking real-world problems and increasing the complexity of environments, we hope to advance state-of-the-art multi-agent research and inspire researchers to work on immediate real-world problems. Here, we present HIVEX, an environment suite to benchmark multi-agent research focusing on ecological challenges. HIVEX includes the following environments: Wind Farm Control, Wildfire Resource Management, Drone-Based Reforestation, Ocean Plastic Collection, and Aerial Wildfire Suppression. We provide environments, training examples, and baselines for the main and sub-tasks. All trained models resulting from the experiments of this work are hosted on Hugging Face. We also provide a leaderboard on Hugging Face and encourage the community to submit models trained on our environment suite.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 7, 2025

Bidirectional Learning for Offline Model-based Biological Sequence Design

Offline model-based optimization aims to maximize a black-box objective function with a static dataset of designs and their scores. In this paper, we focus on biological sequence design to maximize some sequence score. A recent approach employs bidirectional learning, combining a forward mapping for exploitation and a backward mapping for constraint, and it relies on the neural tangent kernel (NTK) of an infinitely wide network to build a proxy model. Though effective, the NTK cannot learn features because of its parametrization, and its use prevents the incorporation of powerful pre-trained Language Models (LMs) that can capture the rich biophysical information in millions of biological sequences. We adopt an alternative proxy model, adding a linear head to a pre-trained LM, and propose a linearization scheme. This yields a closed-form loss and also takes into account the biophysical information in the pre-trained LM. In addition, the forward mapping and the backward mapping play different roles and thus deserve different weights during sequence optimization. To achieve this, we train an auxiliary model and leverage its weak supervision signal via a bi-level optimization framework to effectively learn how to balance the two mappings. Further, by extending the framework, we develop the first learning rate adaptation module Adaptive-eta, which is compatible with all gradient-based algorithms for offline model-based optimization. Experimental results on DNA/protein sequence design tasks verify the effectiveness of our algorithm. Our code is available~https://anonymous.4open.science/r/BIB-ICLR2023-Submission/README.md{here.}

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 7, 2023

A Real-Time Framework for Domain-Adaptive Underwater Object Detection with Image Enhancement

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the field of underwater image enhancement (UIE). However, its practical utility for high-level vision tasks, such as underwater object detection (UOD) in Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs), remains relatively unexplored. It may be attributed to several factors: (1) Existing methods typically employ UIE as a pre-processing step, which inevitably introduces considerable computational overhead and latency. (2) The process of enhancing images prior to training object detectors may not necessarily yield performance improvements. (3) The complex underwater environments can induce significant domain shifts across different scenarios, seriously deteriorating the UOD performance. To address these challenges, we introduce EnYOLO, an integrated real-time framework designed for simultaneous UIE and UOD with domain-adaptation capability. Specifically, both the UIE and UOD task heads share the same network backbone and utilize a lightweight design. Furthermore, to ensure balanced training for both tasks, we present a multi-stage training strategy aimed at consistently enhancing their performance. Additionally, we propose a novel domain-adaptation strategy to align feature embeddings originating from diverse underwater environments. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our framework not only achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in both UIE and UOD tasks, but also shows superior adaptability when applied to different underwater scenarios. Our efficiency analysis further highlights the substantial potential of our framework for onboard deployment.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 27, 2024

ClimateGPT: Towards AI Synthesizing Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Change

This paper introduces ClimateGPT, a model family of domain-specific large language models that synthesize interdisciplinary research on climate change. We trained two 7B models from scratch on a science-oriented dataset of 300B tokens. For the first model, the 4.2B domain-specific tokens were included during pre-training and the second was adapted to the climate domain after pre-training. Additionally, ClimateGPT-7B, 13B and 70B are continuously pre-trained from Llama~2 on a domain-specific dataset of 4.2B tokens. Each model is instruction fine-tuned on a high-quality and human-generated domain-specific dataset that has been created in close cooperation with climate scientists. To reduce the number of hallucinations, we optimize the model for retrieval augmentation and propose a hierarchical retrieval strategy. To increase the accessibility of our model to non-English speakers, we propose to make use of cascaded machine translation and show that this approach can perform comparably to natively multilingual models while being easier to scale to a large number of languages. Further, to address the intrinsic interdisciplinary aspect of climate change we consider different research perspectives. Therefore, the model can produce in-depth answers focusing on different perspectives in addition to an overall answer. We propose a suite of automatic climate-specific benchmarks to evaluate LLMs. On these benchmarks, ClimateGPT-7B performs on par with the ten times larger Llama-2-70B Chat model while not degrading results on general domain benchmarks. Our human evaluation confirms the trends we saw in our benchmarks. All models were trained and evaluated using renewable energy and are released publicly.

  • 26 authors
·
Jan 17, 2024 4

Adaptability in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: A Framework and Unified Review

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has shown clear effectiveness in coordinating multiple agents across simulated benchmarks and constrained scenarios. However, its deployment in real-world multi-agent systems (MAS) remains limited, primarily due to the complex and dynamic nature of such environments. These challenges arise from multiple interacting sources of variability, including fluctuating agent populations, evolving task goals, and inconsistent execution conditions. Together, these factors demand that MARL algorithms remain effective under continuously changing system configurations and operational demands. To better capture and assess this capacity for adjustment, we introduce the concept of adaptability as a unified and practically grounded lens through which to evaluate the reliability of MARL algorithms under shifting conditions, broadly referring to any changes in the environment dynamics that may occur during learning or execution. Centred on the notion of adaptability, we propose a structured framework comprising three key dimensions: learning adaptability, policy adaptability, and scenario-driven adaptability. By adopting this adaptability perspective, we aim to support more principled assessments of MARL performance beyond narrowly defined benchmarks. Ultimately, this survey contributes to the development of algorithms that are better suited for deployment in dynamic, real-world multi-agent systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025

Sparse Diffusion Autoencoder for Test-time Adapting Prediction of Complex Systems

Predicting the behavior of complex systems is critical in many scientific and engineering domains, and hinges on the model's ability to capture their underlying dynamics. Existing methods encode the intrinsic dynamics of high-dimensional observations through latent representations and predict autoregressively. However, these latent representations lose the inherent spatial structure of spatiotemporal dynamics, leading to the predictor's inability to effectively model spatial interactions and neglect emerging dynamics during long-term prediction. In this work, we propose SparseDiff, introducing a test-time adaptation strategy to dynamically update the encoding scheme to accommodate emergent spatiotemporal structures during the long-term evolution of the system. Specifically, we first design a codebook-based sparse encoder, which coarsens the continuous spatial domain into a sparse graph topology. Then, we employ a graph neural ordinary differential equation to model the dynamics and guide a diffusion decoder for reconstruction. SparseDiff autoregressively predicts the spatiotemporal evolution and adjust the sparse topological structure to adapt to emergent spatiotemporal patterns by adaptive re-encoding. Extensive evaluations on representative systems demonstrate that SparseDiff achieves an average prediction error reduction of 49.99\% compared to baselines, requiring only 1\% of the spatial resolution.

  • 4 authors
·
May 23, 2025

Agent-Environment Alignment via Automated Interface Generation

Large language model (LLM) agents have shown impressive reasoning capabilities in interactive decision-making tasks. These agents interact with environment through intermediate interfaces, such as predefined action spaces and interaction rules, which mediate the perception and action. However, mismatches often happen between the internal expectations of the agent regarding the influence of its issued actions and the actual state transitions in the environment, a phenomenon referred to as agent-environment misalignment. While prior work has invested substantially in improving agent strategies and environment design, the critical role of the interface still remains underexplored. In this work, we empirically demonstrate that agent-environment misalignment poses a significant bottleneck to agent performance. To mitigate this issue, we propose ALIGN, an Auto-Aligned Interface Generation framework that alleviates the misalignment by enriching the interface. Specifically, the ALIGN-generated interface enhances both the static information of the environment and the step-wise observations returned to the agent. Implemented as a lightweight wrapper, this interface achieves the alignment without modifying either the agent logic or the environment code. Experiments across multiple domains including embodied tasks, web navigation and tool-use, show consistent performance improvements, with up to a 45.67\% success rate improvement observed in ALFWorld. Meanwhile, ALIGN-generated interface can generalize across different agent architectures and LLM backbones without interface regeneration. Code and experimental results are available at https://github.com/THUNLP-MT/ALIGN.

  • 5 authors
·
May 27, 2025

Agentic World Modeling: Foundations, Capabilities, Laws, and Beyond

As AI systems move from generating text to accomplishing goals through sustained interaction, the ability to model environment dynamics becomes a central bottleneck. Agents that manipulate objects, navigate software, coordinate with others, or design experiments require predictive environment models, yet the term world model carries different meanings across research communities. We introduce a "levels x laws" taxonomy organized along two axes. The first defines three capability levels: L1 Predictor, which learns one-step local transition operators; L2 Simulator, which composes them into multi-step, action-conditioned rollouts that respect domain laws; and L3 Evolver, which autonomously revises its own model when predictions fail against new evidence. The second identifies four governing-law regimes: physical, digital, social, and scientific. These regimes determine what constraints a world model must satisfy and where it is most likely to fail. Using this framework, we synthesize over 400 works and summarize more than 100 representative systems spanning model-based reinforcement learning, video generation, web and GUI agents, multi-agent social simulation, and AI-driven scientific discovery. We analyze methods, failure modes, and evaluation practices across level-regime pairs, propose decision-centric evaluation principles and a minimal reproducible evaluation package, and outline architectural guidance, open problems, and governance challenges. The resulting roadmap connects previously isolated communities and charts a path from passive next-step prediction toward world models that can simulate, and ultimately reshape, the environments in which agents operate.

  • 42 authors
·
Apr 23 5

Location-aware Adaptive Normalization: A Deep Learning Approach For Wildfire Danger Forecasting

Climate change is expected to intensify and increase extreme events in the weather cycle. Since this has a significant impact on various sectors of our life, recent works are concerned with identifying and predicting such extreme events from Earth observations. With respect to wildfire danger forecasting, previous deep learning approaches duplicate static variables along the time dimension and neglect the intrinsic differences between static and dynamic variables. Furthermore, most existing multi-branch architectures lose the interconnections between the branches during the feature learning stage. To address these issues, this paper proposes a 2D/3D two-branch convolutional neural network (CNN) with a Location-aware Adaptive Normalization layer (LOAN). Using LOAN as a building block, we can modulate the dynamic features conditional on their geographical locations. Thus, our approach considers feature properties as a unified yet compound 2D/3D model. Besides, we propose using the sinusoidal-based encoding of the day of the year to provide the model with explicit temporal information about the target day within the year. Our experimental results show a better performance of our approach than other baselines on the challenging FireCube dataset. The results show that location-aware adaptive feature normalization is a promising technique to learn the relation between dynamic variables and their geographic locations, which is highly relevant for areas where remote sensing data builds the basis for analysis. The source code is available at https://github.com/HakamShams/LOAN.

UniBonn Univerity of Bonn
·
Dec 15, 2022

Residual Feature Integration is Sufficient to Prevent Negative Transfer

Transfer learning has become a central paradigm in modern machine learning, yet it suffers from the long-standing problem of negative transfer, where leveraging source representations can harm rather than help performance on the target task. Although empirical remedies have been proposed, there remains little theoretical understanding of how to reliably avoid negative transfer. In this paper, we investigate a simple yet remarkably effective strategy: augmenting frozen, pretrained source-side features with a trainable target-side encoder that adapts target features to capture residual signals overlooked by models pretrained on the source data. We show this residual feature integration strategy is sufficient to provably prevent negative transfer, by establishing theoretical guarantees that it has no worse convergence rate than training from scratch under the informative class of target distributions up to logarithmic factors, and that the convergence rate can transition seamlessly from nonparametric to near-parametric when source representations are informative. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work that ensures protection against negative transfer. We carry out extensive numerical experiments across image, text and tabular benchmarks, and empirically verify that the method consistently safeguards performance under distribution shift, label noise, semantic perturbation, and class imbalance. We additionally demonstrate that this residual integration mechanism uniquely supports adapt-time multimodality extension, enabling a pretrained single-cell foundation model to incorporate spatial signals for lymph-node anatomical classification despite the source model being trained without them. Our study thus advances the theory of safe transfer learning, and provides a principled approach that is simple, robust, architecture-agnostic, and broadly applicable.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 13

WeatherEdit: Controllable Weather Editing with 4D Gaussian Field

In this work, we present WeatherEdit, a novel weather editing pipeline for generating realistic weather effects with controllable types and severity in 3D scenes. Our approach is structured into two key components: weather background editing and weather particle construction. For weather background editing, we introduce an all-in-one adapter that integrates multiple weather styles into a single pretrained diffusion model, enabling the generation of diverse weather effects in 2D image backgrounds. During inference, we design a Temporal-View (TV-) attention mechanism that follows a specific order to aggregate temporal and spatial information, ensuring consistent editing across multi-frame and multi-view images. To construct the weather particles, we first reconstruct a 3D scene using the edited images and then introduce a dynamic 4D Gaussian field to generate snowflakes, raindrops and fog in the scene. The attributes and dynamics of these particles are precisely controlled through physical-based modelling and simulation, ensuring realistic weather representation and flexible severity adjustments. Finally, we integrate the 4D Gaussian field with the 3D scene to render consistent and highly realistic weather effects. Experiments on multiple driving datasets demonstrate that WeatherEdit can generate diverse weather effects with controllable condition severity, highlighting its potential for autonomous driving simulation in adverse weather. See project page: https://jumponthemoon.github.io/w-edit

  • 4 authors
·
May 26, 2025

Stabilizing Open-Set Test-Time Adaptation via Primary-Auxiliary Filtering and Knowledge-Integrated Prediction

Deep neural networks demonstrate strong performance under aligned training-test distributions. However, real-world test data often exhibit domain shifts. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this challenge by adapting the model to test data during inference. While most TTA studies assume that the training and test data share the same class set (closed-set TTA), real-world scenarios often involve open-set data (open-set TTA), which can degrade closed-set accuracy. A recent study showed that identifying open-set data during adaptation and maximizing its entropy is an effective solution. However, the previous method relies on the source model for filtering, resulting in suboptimal filtering accuracy on domain-shifted test data. In contrast, we found that the adapting model, which learns domain knowledge from noisy test streams, tends to be unstable and leads to error accumulation when used for filtering. To address this problem, we propose Primary-Auxiliary Filtering (PAF), which employs an auxiliary filter to validate data filtered by the primary filter. Furthermore, we propose Knowledge-Integrated Prediction (KIP), which calibrates the outputs of the adapting model, EMA model, and source model to integrate their complementary knowledge for OSTTA. We validate our approach across diverse closed-set and open-set datasets. Our method enhances both closed-set accuracy and open-set discrimination over existing methods. The code is available at https://github.com/powerpowe/PAF-KIP-OSTTA .

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 25, 2025

Anthropogenic Regional Adaptation in Multimodal Vision-Language Model

While the field of vision-language (VL) has achieved remarkable success in integrating visual and textual information across multiple languages and domains, there is still no dedicated framework for assessing human-centric alignment in vision-language systems. We offer two contributions to address this gap. First, we introduce Anthropogenic Regional Adaptation: a novel paradigm that aims to optimize model relevance to specific regional contexts while ensuring the retention of global generalization capabilities. Second, we present a simple, but effective adaptation method named Geographical-generalization-made-easy (GG-EZ), which utilizes regional data filtering and model merging. Through comprehensive experiments on 3 VL architectures: large vision-language models, text-to-image diffusion models, and vision-language embedding models, and a case study in Southeast Asia (SEA) regional adaptation, we demonstrate the importance of Anthropogenic Regional Adaptation and the effectiveness of GG-EZ, showing 5-15% gains in cultural relevance metrics across SEA while maintaining over 98% of global performance and even occasionally surpassing it. Our findings establish Anthropogenic Regional Alignment as a foundational paradigm towards applicability of multimodal vision-language models in diverse regions and demonstrate a simple-yet-effective baseline method that optimizes regional value alignment while preserving global generalization.

SEACrowd SEACrowd
·
Apr 12 2

ABC: Any-Subset Autoregression via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

  • 6 authors
·
May 4

What Makes VLMs Robust? Towards Reconciling Robustness and Accuracy in Vision-Language Models

Achieving adversarial robustness in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) inevitably compromises accuracy on clean data, presenting a long-standing and challenging trade-off. In this work, we revisit this trade-off by investigating a fundamental question: What makes VLMs robust? Through a detailed analysis of adversarially fine-tuned models, we examine how robustness mechanisms function internally and how they interact with clean accuracy. Our analysis reveals that adversarial robustness is not uniformly distributed across network depth. Instead, unexpectedly, it is primarily localized within the shallow layers, driven by a low-frequency spectral bias and input-insensitive attention patterns. Meanwhile, updates to the deep layers tend to undermine both clean accuracy and robust generalization. Motivated by these insights, we propose Adversarial Robustness Adaptation (R-Adapt), a simple yet effective framework that freezes all pre-trained weights and introduces minimal, insight-driven adaptations only in the initial layers. This design achieves an exceptional balance between adversarial robustness and clean accuracy. R-Adapt further supports training-free, model-guided, and data-driven paradigms, offering flexible pathways to seamlessly equip standard models with robustness. Extensive evaluations on 18 datasets and diverse tasks demonstrate our state-of-the-art performance under various attacks. Notably, R-Adapt generalizes efficiently to large vision-language models (e.g., LLaVA and Qwen-VL) to enhance their robustness. Our project page is available at https://summu77.github.io/R-Adapt.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 13

The Change You Want To Detect: Semantic Change Detection In Earth Observation With Hybrid Data Generation

Bi-temporal change detection at scale based on Very High Resolution (VHR) images is crucial for Earth monitoring. This remains poorly addressed so far: methods either require large volumes of annotated data (semantic case), or are limited to restricted datasets (binary set-ups). Most approaches do not exhibit the versatility required for temporal and spatial adaptation: simplicity in architecture design and pretraining on realistic and comprehensive datasets. Synthetic datasets are the key solution but still fail to handle complex and diverse scenes. In this paper, we present HySCDG a generative pipeline for creating a large hybrid semantic change detection dataset that contains both real VHR images and inpainted ones, along with land cover semantic map at both dates and the change map. Being semantically and spatially guided, HySCDG generates realistic images, leading to a comprehensive and hybrid transfer-proof dataset FSC-180k. We evaluate FSC-180k on five change detection cases (binary and semantic), from zero-shot to mixed and sequential training, and also under low data regime training. Experiments demonstrate that pretraining on our hybrid dataset leads to a significant performance boost, outperforming SyntheWorld, a fully synthetic dataset, in every configuration. All codes, models, and data are available here: https://yb23.github.io/projects/cywd/

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 19, 2025

How Well Does GPT-4V(ision) Adapt to Distribution Shifts? A Preliminary Investigation

In machine learning, generalization against distribution shifts -- where deployment conditions diverge from the training scenarios -- is crucial, particularly in fields like climate modeling, biomedicine, and autonomous driving. The emergence of foundation models, distinguished by their extensive pretraining and task versatility, has led to an increased interest in their adaptability to distribution shifts. GPT-4V(ision) acts as the most advanced publicly accessible multimodal foundation model, with extensive applications across various domains, including anomaly detection, video understanding, image generation, and medical diagnosis. However, its robustness against data distributions remains largely underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study rigorously evaluates GPT-4V's adaptability and generalization capabilities in dynamic environments, benchmarking against prominent models like CLIP and LLaVA. We delve into GPT-4V's zero-shot generalization across 13 diverse datasets spanning natural, medical, and molecular domains. We further investigate its adaptability to controlled data perturbations and examine the efficacy of in-context learning as a tool to enhance its adaptation. Our findings delineate GPT-4V's capability boundaries in distribution shifts, shedding light on its strengths and limitations across various scenarios. Importantly, this investigation contributes to our understanding of how AI foundation models generalize to distribution shifts, offering pivotal insights into their adaptability and robustness. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/jameszhou-gl/gpt-4v-distribution-shift.

  • 11 authors
·
Dec 12, 2023

The impact of internal variability on benchmarking deep learning climate emulators

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 9, 2024

Causal de Finetti: On the Identification of Invariant Causal Structure in Exchangeable Data

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 29, 2022