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May 7

Enhancing clinical decision support with physiological waveforms -- a multimodal benchmark in emergency care

Background: AI-driven prediction algorithms have the potential to enhance emergency medicine by enabling rapid and accurate decision-making regarding patient status and potential deterioration. However, the integration of multimodal data, including raw waveform signals, remains underexplored in clinical decision support. Methods: We present a dataset and benchmarking protocol designed to advance multimodal decision support in emergency care. Our models utilize demographics, biometrics, vital signs, laboratory values, and electrocardiogram (ECG) waveforms as inputs to predict both discharge diagnoses and patient deterioration. Results: The diagnostic model achieves area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) scores above 0.8 for 609 out of 1,428 conditions, covering both cardiac (e.g., myocardial infarction) and non-cardiac (e.g., renal disease, diabetes) diagnoses. The deterioration model attains AUROC scores above 0.8 for 14 out of 15 targets, accurately predicting critical events such as cardiac arrest, mechanical ventilation, ICU admission, and mortality. Conclusions: Our study highlights the positive impact of incorporating raw waveform data into decision support models, improving predictive performance. By introducing a unique, publicly available dataset and baseline models, we provide a foundation for measurable progress in AI-driven decision support for emergency care.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 29, 2025

Benchmarking emergency department triage prediction models with machine learning and large public electronic health records

The demand for emergency department (ED) services is increasing across the globe, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical triage and risk assessment have become increasingly challenging due to the shortage of medical resources and the strain on hospital infrastructure caused by the pandemic. As a result of the widespread use of electronic health records (EHRs), we now have access to a vast amount of clinical data, which allows us to develop predictive models and decision support systems to address these challenges. To date, however, there are no widely accepted benchmark ED triage prediction models based on large-scale public EHR data. An open-source benchmarking platform would streamline research workflows by eliminating cumbersome data preprocessing, and facilitate comparisons among different studies and methodologies. In this paper, based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV Emergency Department (MIMIC-IV-ED) database, we developed a publicly available benchmark suite for ED triage predictive models and created a benchmark dataset that contains over 400,000 ED visits from 2011 to 2019. We introduced three ED-based outcomes (hospitalization, critical outcomes, and 72-hour ED reattendance) and implemented a variety of popular methodologies, ranging from machine learning methods to clinical scoring systems. We evaluated and compared the performance of these methods against benchmark tasks. Our codes are open-source, allowing anyone with MIMIC-IV-ED data access to perform the same steps in data processing, benchmark model building, and experiments. This study provides future researchers with insights, suggestions, and protocols for managing raw data and developing risk triaging tools for emergency care.

  • 13 authors
·
Nov 22, 2021

Resolution scaling governs DINOv3 transfer performance in chest radiograph classification

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has advanced visual representation learning, but its value in chest radiography, a high-volume imaging modality with fine-grained findings, remains unclear. Meta's DINOv3 extends earlier SSL models through Gram-anchored self-distillation. Whether these design choices improve transfer learning for chest radiography has not been systematically tested. We benchmarked DINOv3 against DINOv2 and ImageNet initialization across seven datasets (n>814,000). Two representative backbones were evaluated: ViT-B/16 and ConvNeXt-B. Images were analyzed at 224x224, 512x512, and 1024x1024 pixels. We additionally assessed frozen features from a 7B model. The primary outcome was mean AUROC across labels. At 224x224, DINOv3 and DINOv2 achieved comparable performance on adult datasets. Increasing resolution to 512x512 yielded consistent improvements for DINOv3 over both DINOv2 and ImageNet. In contrast, results in pediatric cohort showed no differences across initializations. Across all settings, ConvNeXt-B outperformed ViT-B/16. Models using frozen DINOv3-7B features underperformed relative to fully finetuned 86-89M-parameter backbones, highlighting the importance of domain adaptation. Scaling to 1024x1024 did not further improve accuracy. Resolution-related gains were most evident for boundary-dependent and small focal abnormalities. In chest radiography, higher input resolution is critical for leveraging the benefits of modern self-supervised models. 512x512 pixels represent a practical upper limit where DINOv3-initialized ConvNeXt-B networks provide the strongest performance, while larger inputs offer minimal return on cost. Clinically, these findings support use of finetuned, mid-sized backbones at 512x512 for chest radiograph interpretation, with the greatest gains expected in detecting subtle or boundary-centered lesions relevant to emergency and critical care settings.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 8, 2025

Forecasting Patient Demand at Urgent Care Clinics using Machine Learning

Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous research into forecasting demand this domain has mostly used a collection of statistical techniques, with machine learning approaches only now beginning to emerge in recent literature. The forecasting problem for this domain is difficult and has also been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has introduced an additional complexity to this estimation due to typical demand patterns being disrupted. This study explores the ability of machine learning methods to generate accurate patient presentations at two large urgent care clinics located in Auckland, New Zealand. A number of machine learning algorithms were explored in order to determine the most effective technique for this problem domain, with the task of making forecasts of daily patient demand three months in advance. The study also performed an in-depth analysis into the model behaviour in respect to the exploration of which features are most effective at predicting demand and which features are capable of adaptation to the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The results showed that ensemble-based methods delivered the most accurate and consistent solutions on average, generating improvements in the range of 23%-27% over the existing in-house methods for estimating the daily demand.

  • 2 authors
·
May 25, 2022

Forecasting Patient Flows with Pandemic Induced Concept Drift using Explainable Machine Learning

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 1, 2022

Unsupervised Pre-Training for Vietnamese Automatic Speech Recognition in the HYKIST Project

In today's interconnected globe, moving abroad is more and more prevalent, whether it's for employment, refugee resettlement, or other causes. Language difficulties between natives and immigrants present a common issue on a daily basis, especially in medical domain. This can make it difficult for patients and doctors to communicate during anamnesis or in the emergency room, which compromises patient care. The goal of the HYKIST Project is to develop a speech translation system to support patient-doctor communication with ASR and MT. ASR systems have recently displayed astounding performance on particular tasks for which enough quantities of training data are available, such as LibriSpeech. Building a good model is still difficult due to a variety of speaking styles, acoustic and recording settings, and a lack of in-domain training data. In this thesis, we describe our efforts to construct ASR systems for a conversational telephone speech recognition task in the medical domain for Vietnamese language to assist emergency room contact between doctors and patients across linguistic barriers. In order to enhance the system's performance, we investigate various training schedules and data combining strategies. We also examine how best to make use of the little data that is available. The use of publicly accessible models like XLSR-53 is compared to the use of customized pre-trained models, and both supervised and unsupervised approaches are utilized using wav2vec 2.0 as architecture.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 26, 2023

Real-Time Multimodal Cognitive Assistant for Emergency Medical Services

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) responders often operate under time-sensitive conditions, facing cognitive overload and inherent risks, requiring essential skills in critical thinking and rapid decision-making. This paper presents CognitiveEMS, an end-to-end wearable cognitive assistant system that can act as a collaborative virtual partner engaging in the real-time acquisition and analysis of multimodal data from an emergency scene and interacting with EMS responders through Augmented Reality (AR) smart glasses. CognitiveEMS processes the continuous streams of data in real-time and leverages edge computing to provide assistance in EMS protocol selection and intervention recognition. We address key technical challenges in real-time cognitive assistance by introducing three novel components: (i) a Speech Recognition model that is fine-tuned for real-world medical emergency conversations using simulated EMS audio recordings, augmented with synthetic data generated by large language models (LLMs); (ii) an EMS Protocol Prediction model that combines state-of-the-art (SOTA) tiny language models with EMS domain knowledge using graph-based attention mechanisms; (iii) an EMS Action Recognition module which leverages multimodal audio and video data and protocol predictions to infer the intervention/treatment actions taken by the responders at the incident scene. Our results show that for speech recognition we achieve superior performance compared to SOTA (WER of 0.290 vs. 0.618) on conversational data. Our protocol prediction component also significantly outperforms SOTA (top-3 accuracy of 0.800 vs. 0.200) and the action recognition achieves an accuracy of 0.727, while maintaining an end-to-end latency of 3.78s for protocol prediction on the edge and 0.31s on the server.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 10, 2024

Medical Triage as Pairwise Ranking: A Benchmark for Urgency in Patient Portal Messages

Medical triage is the task of allocating medical resources and prioritizing patients based on medical need. This paper introduces the first large-scale public dataset for studying medical triage in the context of asynchronous outpatient portal messages. Our novel task formulation views patient message triage as a pairwise inference problem, where we train LLMs to choose `"which message is more medically urgent" in a head-to-head tournament-style re-sort of a physician's inbox. Our novel benchmark PMR-Bench contains 1569 unique messages and 2,000+ high-quality test pairs for pairwise medical urgency assessment alongside a scalable training data generation pipeline. PMR-Bench includes samples that contain both unstructured patient-written messages alongside real electronic health record (EHR) data, emulating a real-world medical triage scenario. We develop a novel automated data annotation strategy to provide LLMs with in-domain guidance on this task. The resulting data is used to train two model classes, UrgentReward and UrgentSFT, leveraging Bradley-Terry and next token prediction objective, respectively to perform pairwise urgency classification. We find that UrgentSFT achieves top performance on PMR-Bench, with UrgentReward showing distinct advantages in low-resource settings. For example, UrgentSFT-8B and UrgentReward-8B provide a 15- and 16-point boost, respectively, on inbox sorting metrics over off-the-shelf 8B models. Paper resources can be found at https://tinyurl.com/Patient-Message-Triage

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 19

Collaborative Medical Triage under Uncertainty: A Multi-Agent Dynamic Matching Approach

The post-pandemic surge in healthcare demand, coupled with critical nursing shortages, has placed unprecedented pressure on medical triage systems, necessitating innovative AI-driven solutions. We present a multi-agent interactive intelligent system for medical triage that addresses three fundamental challenges in current AI-based triage systems: inadequate medical specialization leading to misclassification, heterogeneous department structures across healthcare institutions, and inefficient detail-oriented questioning that impedes rapid triage decisions. Our system employs three specialized agents--RecipientAgent, InquirerAgent, and DepartmentAgent--that collaborate through Inquiry Guidance mechanism and Classification Guidance Mechanism to transform unstructured patient symptoms into accurate department recommendations. To ensure robust evaluation, we constructed a comprehensive Chinese medical triage dataset from "Ai Ai Yi Medical Network", comprising 3,360 real-world cases spanning 9 primary departments and 62 secondary departments. Experimental results demonstrate that our multi-agent system achieves 89.6% accuracy in primary department classification and 74.3% accuracy in secondary department classification after four rounds of patient interaction. The system's dynamic matching based guidance mechanisms enable efficient adaptation to diverse hospital configurations while maintaining high triage accuracy. We successfully developed this multi-agent triage system that not only adapts to organizational heterogeneity across healthcare institutions but also ensures clinically sound decision-making.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 3, 2025

CP-Env: Evaluating Large Language Models on Clinical Pathways in a Controllable Hospital Environment

Medical care follows complex clinical pathways that extend beyond isolated physician-patient encounters, emphasizing decision-making and transitions between different stages. Current benchmarks focusing on static exams or isolated dialogues inadequately evaluate large language models (LLMs) in dynamic clinical scenarios. We introduce CP-Env, a controllable agentic hospital environment designed to evaluate LLMs across end-to-end clinical pathways. CP-Env simulates a hospital ecosystem with patient and physician agents, constructing scenarios ranging from triage and specialist consultation to diagnostic testing and multidisciplinary team meetings for agent interaction. Following real hospital adaptive flow of healthcare, it enables branching, long-horizon task execution. We propose a three-tiered evaluation framework encompassing Clinical Efficacy, Process Competency, and Professional Ethics. Results reveal that most models struggle with pathway complexity, exhibiting hallucinations and losing critical diagnostic details. Interestingly, excessive reasoning steps can sometimes prove counterproductive, while top models tend to exhibit reduced tool dependency through internalized knowledge. CP-Env advances medical AI agents development through comprehensive end-to-end clinical evaluation. We provide the benchmark and evaluation tools for further research and development at https://github.com/SPIRAL-MED/CP_ENV.

  • 8 authors
·
Dec 10, 2025

An Integrated Optimization and Machine Learning Models to Predict the Admission Status of Emergency Patients

This work proposes a framework for optimizing machine learning algorithms. The practicality of the framework is illustrated using an important case study from the healthcare domain, which is predicting the admission status of emergency department (ED) patients (e.g., admitted vs. discharged) using patient data at the time of triage. The proposed framework can mitigate the crowding problem by proactively planning the patient boarding process. A large retrospective dataset of patient records is obtained from the electronic health record database of all ED visits over three years from three major locations of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US. Three machine learning algorithms are proposed: T-XGB, T-ADAB, and T-MLP. T-XGB integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Tabu Search (TS), T-ADAB integrates Adaboost and TS, and T-MLP integrates multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and TS. The proposed algorithms are compared with the traditional algorithms: XGB, ADAB, and MLP, in which their parameters are tunned using grid search. The three proposed algorithms and the original ones are trained and tested using nine data groups that are obtained from different feature selection methods. In other words, 54 models are developed. Performance was evaluated using five measures: Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy. The results show that the newly proposed algorithms resulted in high AUC and outperformed the traditional algorithms. The T-ADAB performs the best among the newly developed algorithms. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy of the best model are 95.4%, 99.3%, 91.4%, 95.2%, 97.2%, respectively.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 18, 2022

Pre-training A Neural Language Model Improves The Sample Efficiency of an Emergency Room Classification Model

To build a French national electronic injury surveillance system based on emergency room visits, we aim to develop a coding system to classify their causes from clinical notes in free-text. Supervised learning techniques have shown good results in this area but require a large amount of expert annotated dataset which is time consuming and costly to obtain. We hypothesize that the Natural Language Processing Transformer model incorporating a generative self-supervised pre-training step can significantly reduce the required number of annotated samples for supervised fine-tuning. In this preliminary study, we test our hypothesis in the simplified problem of predicting whether a visit is the consequence of a traumatic event or not from free-text clinical notes. Using fully re-trained GPT-2 models (without OpenAI pre-trained weights), we assess the gain of applying a self-supervised pre-training phase with unlabeled notes prior to the supervised learning task. Results show that the number of data required to achieve a ginve level of performance (AUC>0.95) was reduced by a factor of 10 when applying pre-training. Namely, for 16 times more data, the fully-supervised model achieved an improvement <1% in AUC. To conclude, it is possible to adapt a multi-purpose neural language model such as the GPT-2 to create a powerful tool for classification of free-text notes with only a small number of labeled samples.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 30, 2019

A medical coding language model trained on clinical narratives from a population-wide cohort of 1.8 million patients

Medical coding translates clinical documentation into standardized codes for billing, research, and public health, but manual coding is time-consuming and error-prone. Existing automation efforts rely on small datasets that poorly represent real-world patient heterogeneity. We trained a language model on 5.8 million electronic health records from 1.8 million patients across nearly all specialties in Eastern Denmark (2006--2016) to predict ICD-10 codes from clinical notes, medications, and laboratory results. Evaluated on 270,000 held-out patients, the model achieved a micro F1 of 71.8% and a top-10 recall of 95.5%. Performance varied by specialty (F1: 53--91%), with higher scores in specialties with well-defined diagnostic criteria. Codes appearing predominantly as secondary diagnoses had markedly lower F1 scores. For three such codes (suicide-related behaviors, weight disorders, and hypertension), the model identified thousands of uncoded cases, of which 76-86% were confirmed valid upon manual review, suggesting systematic under-coding rather than model error. These findings suggest under-coding of secondary diagnoses in Eastern Denmark during this period, with potential implications for epidemiological research, public health surveillance, and understanding of multimorbidity. Similar time constraints and reimbursement structures in other healthcare systems suggest this may not be isolated to this dataset. The model can automate coding for approximately 50% of cases and provide accurate suggestions for most others, and may offer a practical solution to help capture missed secondary conditions.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 2

A Corpus for Detecting High-Context Medical Conditions in Intensive Care Patient Notes Focusing on Frequently Readmitted Patients

A crucial step within secondary analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) is to identify the patient cohort under investigation. While EHRs contain medical billing codes that aim to represent the conditions and treatments patients may have, much of the information is only present in the patient notes. Therefore, it is critical to develop robust algorithms to infer patients' conditions and treatments from their written notes. In this paper, we introduce a dataset for patient phenotyping, a task that is defined as the identification of whether a patient has a given medical condition (also referred to as clinical indication or phenotype) based on their patient note. Nursing Progress Notes and Discharge Summaries from the Intensive Care Unit of a large tertiary care hospital were manually annotated for the presence of several high-context phenotypes relevant to treatment and risk of re-hospitalization. This dataset contains 1102 Discharge Summaries and 1000 Nursing Progress Notes. Each Discharge Summary and Progress Note has been annotated by at least two expert human annotators (one clinical researcher and one resident physician). Annotated phenotypes include treatment non-adherence, chronic pain, advanced/metastatic cancer, as well as 10 other phenotypes. This dataset can be utilized for academic and industrial research in medicine and computer science, particularly within the field of medical natural language processing.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 6, 2020