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Apr 13

TruthTensor: Evaluating LLMs through Human Imitation on Prediction Market under Drift and Holistic Reasoning

Evaluating language models and AI agents remains fundamentally challenging because static benchmarks fail to capture real-world uncertainty, distribution shift, and the gap between isolated task accuracy and human-aligned decision-making under evolving conditions. This paper introduces TruthTensor, a novel, reproducible evaluation paradigm that measures reasoning models not only as prediction engines but as human-imitation systems operating in socially-grounded, high-entropy environments. Building on forward-looking, contamination-free tasks, our framework anchors evaluation to live prediction markets and combines probabilistic scoring to provide a holistic view of model behavior. TruthTensor complements traditional correctness metrics with drift-centric diagnostics and explicit robustness checks for reproducibility. It specify human vs. automated evaluation roles, annotation protocols, and statistical testing procedures to ensure interpretability and replicability of results. In experiments across 500+ real markets (political, economic, cultural, technological), TruthTensor demonstrates that models with similar forecast accuracy can diverge markedly in calibration, drift, and risk-sensitivity, underscoring the need to evaluate models along multiple axes (accuracy, calibration, narrative stability, cost, and resource efficiency). TruthTensor therefore operationalizes modern evaluation best practices, clear hypothesis framing, careful metric selection, transparent compute/cost reporting, human-in-the-loop validation, and open, versioned evaluation contracts, to produce defensible assessments of LLMs in real-world decision contexts. We publicly released TruthTensor at https://truthtensor.com.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 19

FileGram: Grounding Agent Personalization in File-System Behavioral Traces

Coworking AI agents operating within local file systems are rapidly emerging as a paradigm in human-AI interaction; however, effective personalization remains limited by severe data constraints, as strict privacy barriers and the difficulty of jointly collecting multimodal real-world traces prevent scalable training and evaluation, and existing methods remain interaction-centric while overlooking dense behavioral traces in file-system operations; to address this gap, we propose FileGram, a comprehensive framework that grounds agent memory and personalization in file-system behavioral traces, comprising three core components: (1) FileGramEngine, a scalable persona-driven data engine that simulates realistic workflows and generates fine-grained multimodal action sequences at scale; (2) FileGramBench, a diagnostic benchmark grounded in file-system behavioral traces for evaluating memory systems on profile reconstruction, trace disentanglement, persona drift detection, and multimodal grounding; and (3) FileGramOS, a bottom-up memory architecture that builds user profiles directly from atomic actions and content deltas rather than dialogue summaries, encoding these traces into procedural, semantic, and episodic channels with query-time abstraction; extensive experiments show that FileGramBench remains challenging for state-of-the-art memory systems and that FileGramEngine and FileGramOS are effective, and by open-sourcing the framework, we hope to support future research on personalized memory-centric file-system agents.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 5 1