Daily Papers

The massive population election simulation aims to model the preferences of specific groups in particular election scenarios. It has garnered significant attention for its potential to forecast real-world social trends. Traditional agent-based modeling (ABM) methods are constrained by their ability to incorporate complex individual background information and provide interactive prediction results. In this paper, we introduce ElectionSim, an innovative election simulation framework based on large language models, designed to support accurate voter simulations and customized distributions, together with an interactive platform to dialogue with simulated voters. We present a million-level voter pool sampled from social media platforms to support accurate individual simulation. We also introduce PPE, a poll-based presidential election benchmark to assess the performance of our framework under the U.S. presidential election scenario. Through extensive experiments and analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our framework in U.S. presidential election simulations.

Masked Autoencoder~(MAE) is a prevailing self-supervised learning method that achieves promising results in model pre-training. However, when the various downstream tasks have data distributions different from the pre-training data, the semantically irrelevant pre-training information might result in negative transfer, impeding MAE's scalability. To address this issue, we propose a novel MAE-based pre-training paradigm, Mixture of Cluster-conditional Experts (MoCE), which can be trained once but provides customized pre-training models for diverse downstream tasks. Different from the mixture of experts (MoE), our MoCE trains each expert only with semantically relevant images by using cluster-conditional gates. Thus, each downstream task can be allocated to its customized model pre-trained with data most similar to the downstream data. Experiments on a collection of 11 downstream tasks show that MoCE outperforms the vanilla MAE by 2.45\% on average. It also obtains new state-of-the-art self-supervised learning results on detection and segmentation.

An appropriate distance metric is crucial for categorical data clustering, as the distance between categorical data cannot be directly calculated. However, the distances between attribute values usually vary in different clusters induced by their different distributions, which has not been taken into account, thus leading to unreasonable distance measurement. Therefore, we propose a cluster-customized distance metric for categorical data clustering, which can competitively update distances based on different distributions of attributes in each cluster. In addition, we extend the proposed distance metric to the mixed data that contains both numerical and categorical attributes. Experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method, i.e., achieving an average ranking of around first in fourteen datasets. The source code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CADM-47D8

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

The popularization of Text-to-Image (T2I) diffusion models enables the generation of high-quality images from text descriptions. However, generating diverse customized images with reference visual attributes remains challenging. This work focuses on personalizing T2I diffusion models at a more abstract concept or category level, adapting commonalities from a set of reference images while creating new instances with sufficient variations. We introduce a solution that allows a pretrained T2I diffusion model to learn a set of soft prompts, enabling the generation of novel images by sampling prompts from the learned distribution. These prompts offer text-guided editing capabilities and additional flexibility in controlling variation and mixing between multiple distributions. We also show the adaptability of the learned prompt distribution to other tasks, such as text-to-3D. Finally we demonstrate effectiveness of our approach through quantitative analysis including automatic evaluation and human assessment. Project website: https://briannlongzhao.github.io/DreamDistribution

Recent advancements in federated learning (FL) seek to increase client-level performance by fine-tuning client parameters on local data or personalizing architectures for the local task. Existing methods for such personalization either prune a global model or fine-tune a global model on a local client distribution. However, these existing methods either personalize at the expense of retaining important global knowledge, or predetermine network layers for fine-tuning, resulting in suboptimal storage of global knowledge within client models. Enlightened by the lottery ticket hypothesis, we first introduce a hypothesis for finding optimal client subnetworks to locally fine-tune while leaving the rest of the parameters frozen. We then propose a novel FL framework, FedSelect, using this procedure that directly personalizes both client subnetwork structure and parameters, via the simultaneous discovery of optimal parameters for personalization and the rest of parameters for global aggregation during training. We show that this method achieves promising results on CIFAR-10.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

We investigate the space of weights spanned by a large collection of customized diffusion models. We populate this space by creating a dataset of over 60,000 models, each of which is a base model fine-tuned to insert a different person's visual identity. We model the underlying manifold of these weights as a subspace, which we term weights2weights. We demonstrate three immediate applications of this space -- sampling, editing, and inversion. First, as each point in the space corresponds to an identity, sampling a set of weights from it results in a model encoding a novel identity. Next, we find linear directions in this space corresponding to semantic edits of the identity (e.g., adding a beard). These edits persist in appearance across generated samples. Finally, we show that inverting a single image into this space reconstructs a realistic identity, even if the input image is out of distribution (e.g., a painting). Our results indicate that the weight space of fine-tuned diffusion models behaves as an interpretable latent space of identities.

Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is a fundamental tool for modeling combinatorial optimization problems. Recently, a growing body of research has used machine learning to accelerate MILP solving. Despite the increasing popularity of this approach, there is a lack of a common repository that provides distributions of similar MILP instances across different domains, at different hardness levels, with standardized test sets. In this paper, we introduce Distributional MIPLIB, a multi-domain library of problem distributions for advancing ML-guided MILP methods. We curate MILP distributions from existing work in this area as well as real-world problems that have not been used, and classify them into different hardness levels. It will facilitate research in this area by enabling comprehensive evaluation on diverse and realistic domains. We empirically illustrate the benefits of using Distributional MIPLIB as a research vehicle in two ways. We evaluate the performance of ML-guided variable branching on previously unused distributions to identify potential areas for improvement. Moreover, we propose to learn branching policies from a mix of distributions, demonstrating that mixed distributions achieve better performance compared to homogeneous distributions when there is limited data and generalize well to larger instances. The dataset is publicly available at https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/distributional-miplib/home.

Customized generation aims to incorporate a novel concept into a pre-trained text-to-image model, enabling new generations of the concept in novel contexts guided by textual prompts. However, customized generation suffers from an inherent trade-off between concept fidelity and editability, i.e., between precisely modeling the concept and faithfully adhering to the prompts. Previous methods reluctantly seek a compromise and struggle to achieve both high concept fidelity and ideal prompt alignment simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a Divide, Conquer, then Integrate (DCI) framework, which performs a surgical adjustment in the early stage of denoising to liberate the fine-tuned model from the fidelity-editability trade-off at inference. The two conflicting components in the trade-off are decoupled and individually conquered by two collaborative branches, which are then selectively integrated to preserve high concept fidelity while achieving faithful prompt adherence. To obtain a better fine-tuned model, we introduce an Image-specific Context Optimization} (ICO) strategy for model customization. ICO replaces manual prompt templates with learnable image-specific contexts, providing an adaptive and precise fine-tuning direction to promote the overall performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in reconciling the fidelity-editability trade-off.

We consider the problem of customizing text-to-image diffusion models with user-supplied reference images. Given new prompts, the existing methods can capture the key concept from the reference images but fail to align the generated image with the prompt. In this work, we seek to address this key issue by proposing new methods that can easily be used in conjunction with existing customization methods that optimize the embeddings/weights at various intermediate stages of the text encoding process. The first contribution of this paper is a dissection of the various stages of the text encoding process leading up to the conditioning vector for text-to-image models. We take a holistic view of existing customization methods and notice that key and value outputs from this process differs substantially from their corresponding baseline (non-customized) models (e.g., baseline stable diffusion). While this difference does not impact the concept being customized, it leads to other parts of the generated image not being aligned with the prompt. Further, we also observe that these keys and values allow independent control various aspects of the final generation, enabling semantic manipulation of the output. Taken together, the features spanning these keys and values, serve as the basis for our next contribution where we fix the aforementioned issues with existing methods. We propose a new post-processing algorithm, AlignIT, that infuses the keys and values for the concept of interest while ensuring the keys and values for all other tokens in the input prompt are unchanged. Our proposed method can be plugged in directly to existing customization methods, leading to a substantial performance improvement in the alignment of the final result with the input prompt while retaining the customization quality.

Curb detection is a crucial function in intelligent driving, essential for determining drivable areas on the road. However, the complexity of road environments makes curb detection challenging. This paper introduces CurbNet, a novel framework for curb detection utilizing point cloud segmentation. To address the lack of comprehensive curb datasets with 3D annotations, we have developed the 3D-Curb dataset based on SemanticKITTI, currently the largest and most diverse collection of curb point clouds. Recognizing that the primary characteristic of curbs is height variation, our approach leverages spatially rich 3D point clouds for training. To tackle the challenges posed by the uneven distribution of curb features on the xy-plane and their dependence on high-frequency features along the z-axis, we introduce the Multi-Scale and Channel Attention (MSCA) module, a customized solution designed to optimize detection performance. Additionally, we propose an adaptive weighted loss function group specifically formulated to counteract the imbalance in the distribution of curb point clouds relative to other categories. Extensive experiments conducted on 2 major datasets demonstrate that our method surpasses existing benchmarks set by leading curb detection and point cloud segmentation models. Through the post-processing refinement of the detection results, we have significantly reduced noise in curb detection, thereby improving precision by 4.5 points. Similarly, our tolerance experiments also achieve state-of-the-art results. Furthermore, real-world experiments and dataset analyses mutually validate each other, reinforcing CurbNet's superior detection capability and robust generalizability. The project website is available at: https://github.com/guoyangzhao/CurbNet/.

As a key component in online marketing, uplift modeling aims to accurately capture the degree to which different treatments motivate different users, such as coupons or discounts, also known as the estimation of individual treatment effect (ITE). In an actual business scenario, the options for treatment may be numerous and complex, and there may be correlations between different treatments. In addition, each marketing instance may also have rich user and contextual features. However, existing methods still fall short in both fully exploiting treatment information and mining features that are sensitive to a particular treatment. In this paper, we propose an explicit feature interaction-aware uplift network (EFIN) to address these two problems. Our EFIN includes four customized modules: 1) a feature encoding module encodes not only the user and contextual features, but also the treatment features; 2) a self-interaction module aims to accurately model the user's natural response with all but the treatment features; 3) a treatment-aware interaction module accurately models the degree to which a particular treatment motivates a user through interactions between the treatment features and other features, i.e., ITE; and 4) an intervention constraint module is used to balance the ITE distribution of users between the control and treatment groups so that the model would still achieve a accurate uplift ranking on data collected from a non-random intervention marketing scenario. We conduct extensive experiments on two public datasets and one product dataset to verify the effectiveness of our EFIN. In addition, our EFIN has been deployed in a credit card bill payment scenario of a large online financial platform with a significant improvement.

Federated Learning (FL) is an emerging distributed learning paradigm under privacy constraint. Data heterogeneity is one of the main challenges in FL, which results in slow convergence and degraded performance. Most existing approaches only tackle the heterogeneity challenge by restricting the local model update in client, ignoring the performance drop caused by direct global model aggregation. Instead, we propose a data-free knowledge distillation method to fine-tune the global model in the server (FedFTG), which relieves the issue of direct model aggregation. Concretely, FedFTG explores the input space of local models through a generator, and uses it to transfer the knowledge from local models to the global model. Besides, we propose a hard sample mining scheme to achieve effective knowledge distillation throughout the training. In addition, we develop customized label sampling and class-level ensemble to derive maximum utilization of knowledge, which implicitly mitigates the distribution discrepancy across clients. Extensive experiments show that our FedFTG significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA) FL algorithms and can serve as a strong plugin for enhancing FedAvg, FedProx, FedDyn, and SCAFFOLD.

Diffusion models have recently received a surge of interest due to their impressive performance for image restoration, especially in terms of noise robustness. However, existing diffusion-based methods are trained on a large amount of training data and perform very well in-distribution, but can be quite susceptible to distribution shift. This is especially inappropriate for data-starved hyperspectral image (HSI) restoration. To tackle this problem, this work puts forth a self-supervised diffusion model for HSI restoration, namely Denoising Diffusion Spatio-Spectral Model (DDS2M), which works by inferring the parameters of the proposed Variational Spatio-Spectral Module (VS2M) during the reverse diffusion process, solely using the degraded HSI without any extra training data. In VS2M, a variational inference-based loss function is customized to enable the untrained spatial and spectral networks to learn the posterior distribution, which serves as the transitions of the sampling chain to help reverse the diffusion process. Benefiting from its self-supervised nature and the diffusion process, DDS2M enjoys stronger generalization ability to various HSIs compared to existing diffusion-based methods and superior robustness to noise compared to existing HSI restoration methods. Extensive experiments on HSI denoising, noisy HSI completion and super-resolution on a variety of HSIs demonstrate DDS2M's superiority over the existing task-specific state-of-the-arts.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) is crucial for customizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with constrained resources. Although there have been various PEFT methods for dense-architecture LLMs, PEFT for sparse-architecture LLMs is still underexplored. In this work, we study the PEFT method for LLMs with the Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture and the contents of this work are mainly threefold: (1) We investigate the dispersion degree of the activated experts in customized tasks, and found that the routing distribution for a specific task tends to be highly concentrated, while the distribution of activated experts varies significantly across different tasks. (2) We propose Expert-Specialized Fine-Tuning, or ESFT, which tunes the experts most relevant to downstream tasks while freezing the other experts and modules; experimental results demonstrate that our method not only improves the tuning efficiency, but also matches or even surpasses the performance of full-parameter fine-tuning. (3) We further analyze the impact of the MoE architecture on expert-specialized fine-tuning. We find that MoE models with finer-grained experts are more advantageous in selecting the combination of experts that are most relevant to downstream tasks, thereby enhancing both the training efficiency and effectiveness.

Despite the high-quality results of text-to-image generation, stereotypical biases have been spotted in their generated contents, compromising the fairness of generative models. In this work, we propose to learn adaptive inclusive tokens to shift the attribute distribution of the final generative outputs. Unlike existing de-biasing approaches, our method requires neither explicit attribute specification nor prior knowledge of the bias distribution. Specifically, the core of our method is a lightweight adaptive mapping network, which can customize the inclusive tokens for the concepts to be de-biased, making the tokens generalizable to unseen concepts regardless of their original bias distributions. This is achieved by tuning the adaptive mapping network with a handful of balanced and inclusive samples using an anchor loss. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms previous bias mitigation methods without attribute specification while preserving the alignment between generative results and text descriptions. Moreover, our method achieves comparable performance to models that require specific attributes or editing directions for generation. Extensive experiments showcase the effectiveness of our adaptive inclusive tokens in mitigating stereotypical bias in text-to-image generation. The code will be available at https://github.com/itsmag11/AITTI.

Customization techniques for text-to-image models have paved the way for a wide range of previously unattainable applications, enabling the generation of specific concepts across diverse contexts and styles. While existing methods facilitate high-fidelity customization for individual concepts or a limited, pre-defined set of them, they fall short of achieving scalability, where a single model can seamlessly render countless concepts. In this paper, we address a new problem called Modular Customization, with the goal of efficiently merging customized models that were fine-tuned independently for individual concepts. This allows the merged model to jointly synthesize concepts in one image without compromising fidelity or incurring any additional computational costs. To address this problem, we introduce Orthogonal Adaptation, a method designed to encourage the customized models, which do not have access to each other during fine-tuning, to have orthogonal residual weights. This ensures that during inference time, the customized models can be summed with minimal interference. Our proposed method is both simple and versatile, applicable to nearly all optimizable weights in the model architecture. Through an extensive set of quantitative and qualitative evaluations, our method consistently outperforms relevant baselines in terms of efficiency and identity preservation, demonstrating a significant leap toward scalable customization of diffusion models.

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

In this work, we build on recent advances in distributional reinforcement learning to give a generally applicable, flexible, and state-of-the-art distributional variant of DQN. We achieve this by using quantile regression to approximate the full quantile function for the state-action return distribution. By reparameterizing a distribution over the sample space, this yields an implicitly defined return distribution and gives rise to a large class of risk-sensitive policies. We demonstrate improved performance on the 57 Atari 2600 games in the ALE, and use our algorithm's implicitly defined distributions to study the effects of risk-sensitive policies in Atari games.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

When the performance of a machine learning model varies over groups defined by sensitive attributes (e.g., gender or ethnicity), the performance disparity can be expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the input and output variables over each group. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reduce the disparate impact of a fixed classification model over a population of interest. Given a black-box classifier, we aim to eliminate the performance gap by perturbing the distribution of input variables for the disadvantaged group. We refer to the perturbed distribution as a counterfactual distribution, and characterize its properties for common fairness criteria. We introduce a descent algorithm to learn a counterfactual distribution from data. We then discuss how the estimated distribution can be used to build a data preprocessor that can reduce disparate impact without training a new model. We validate our approach through experiments on real-world datasets, showing that it can repair different forms of disparity without a significant drop in accuracy.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive image generation capabilities. Personalized approaches, such as textual inversion and Dreambooth, enhance model individualization using specific images. These methods enable generating images of specific objects based on diverse textual contexts. Our proposed approach aims to retain the model's original knowledge during new information integration, resulting in superior outcomes while necessitating less training time compared to Dreambooth and textual inversion.

Text-to-image diffusion models can generate diverse, high-fidelity images based on user-provided text prompts. Recent research has extended these models to support text-guided image editing. While text guidance is an intuitive editing interface for users, it often fails to ensure the precise concept conveyed by users. To address this issue, we propose Custom-Edit, in which we (i) customize a diffusion model with a few reference images and then (ii) perform text-guided editing. Our key discovery is that customizing only language-relevant parameters with augmented prompts improves reference similarity significantly while maintaining source similarity. Moreover, we provide our recipe for each customization and editing process. We compare popular customization methods and validate our findings on two editing methods using various datasets.

Recent advances in text-to-image diffusion models have substantially improved the quality of image customization, enabling the synthesis of highly realistic images. Despite this progress, achieving fast and efficient personalization remains a key challenge, particularly for real-world applications. Existing approaches primarily accelerate customization for human subjects by injecting identity-specific embeddings into diffusion models, but these strategies do not generalize well to arbitrary object categories, limiting their applicability. To address this limitation, we propose a novel framework that employs a learned network to predict object-specific textual inversion embeddings, which are subsequently integrated into the UNet timesteps of a diffusion model for text-conditional customization. This design enables rapid, zero-shot personalization of a wide range of objects in a single forward pass, offering both flexibility and scalability. Extensive experiments across multiple tasks and settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, highlighting its potential to support fast, versatile, and inclusive image customization. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first attempt to achieve such general-purpose, training-free personalization within diffusion models, paving the way for future research in personalized image generation.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

We present a new algorithm to optimize distributions defined implicitly by parameterized stochastic diffusions. Doing so allows us to modify the outcome distribution of sampling processes by optimizing over their parameters. We introduce a general framework for first-order optimization of these processes, that performs jointly, in a single loop, optimization and sampling steps. This approach is inspired by recent advances in bilevel optimization and automatic implicit differentiation, leveraging the point of view of sampling as optimization over the space of probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our method, as well as experimental results demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world settings.

Despite being trained specifically to follow user instructions, today's instructiontuned language models perform poorly when instructed to produce random outputs. For example, when prompted to pick a number uniformly between one and ten Llama-2-13B-chat disproportionately favors the number five, and when tasked with picking a first name at random, Mistral-7B-Instruct chooses Avery 40 times more often than we would expect based on the U.S. population. When these language models are used for real-world tasks where diversity of outputs is crucial, such as language model assisted dataset construction, their inability to produce diffuse distributions over valid choices is a major hurdle. In this work, we propose a fine-tuning method that encourages language models to output distributions that are diffuse over valid outcomes. The methods we introduce generalize across a variety of tasks and distributions and make large language models practical for synthetic dataset generation with little human intervention.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training have led to notable improvements in large language models (LLMs), particularly in enhancing their reasoning capabilities to handle complex tasks. However, most existing methods treat the training data as a unified whole, overlooking the fact that modern LLM training often involves a mixture of data from diverse distributions-varying in both source and difficulty. This heterogeneity introduces a key challenge: how to adaptively schedule training across distributions to optimize learning efficiency. In this paper, we present a principled curriculum learning framework grounded in the notion of distribution-level learnability. Our core insight is that the magnitude of policy advantages reflects how much a model can still benefit from further training on a given distribution. Based on this, we propose a distribution-level curriculum learning framework for RL-based LLM post-training, which leverages the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) principle to dynamically adjust sampling probabilities for different distrubutions. This approach prioritizes distributions with either high average advantage (exploitation) or low sample count (exploration), yielding an adaptive and theoretically grounded training schedule. We instantiate our curriculum learning framework with GRPO as the underlying RL algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness on logic reasoning datasets with multiple difficulties and sources. Our experiments show that our framework significantly improves convergence speed and final performance, highlighting the value of distribution-aware curriculum strategies in LLM post-training. Code: https://github.com/ZhentingWang/DUMP.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Region-of-Interest (ROI)-based image compression allocates bits unevenly according to the semantic importance of different regions. Such differentiated coding typically induces a sharp-peaked and heavy-tailed distribution. This distribution characteristic mathematically necessitates a probability model with adaptable shape parameters for accurate description. However, existing methods commonly use a Gaussian model to fit this distribution, resulting in a loss of coding performance. To systematically analyze the impact of this distribution on ROI coding, we develop a unified rate-distortion optimization theoretical paradigm. Building on this paradigm, we propose a novel Generalized Gaussian Model (GGM) to achieve flexible modeling of the latent variables distribution. To support stable optimization of GGM, we introduce effective differentiable functions and further propose a dynamic lower bound to alleviate train-test mismatch. Moreover, finite differences are introduced to solve the gradient computation after GGM fits the distribution. Experiments on COCO2017 demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art in both ROI reconstruction and downstream tasks (e.g., Segmentation, Object Detection). Furthermore, compared to classical probability models, our GGM provides a more precise fit to feature distributions and achieves superior coding performance. The project page is at https://github.com/hukai-tju/ROIGGM.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.