Daily Papers

A new multiferroic material, CuBr2, is reported for the first time. CuBr2 has not only a high transition temperature (close to liquid nitrogen temperature) but also low dielectric loss and strong magnetoelectric coupling. These findings reveal the importance of anion effects in the search for the high temperature multiferroics materials among these low-dimensional spin systems.

The discovery of high-temperature superconducting materials holds great significance for human industry and daily life. In recent years, research on predicting superconducting transition temperatures using artificial intelligence~(AI) has gained popularity, with most of these tools claiming to achieve remarkable accuracy. However, the lack of widely accepted benchmark datasets in this field has severely hindered fair comparisons between different AI algorithms and impeded further advancement of these methods. In this work, we present the HTSC-2025, an ambient-pressure high-temperature superconducting benchmark dataset. This comprehensive compilation encompasses theoretically predicted superconducting materials discovered by theoretical physicists from 2023 to 2025 based on BCS superconductivity theory, including the renowned X_2YH_6 system, perovskite MXH_3 system, M_3XH_8 system, cage-like BCN-doped metal atomic systems derived from LaH_{10} structural evolution, and two-dimensional honeycomb-structured systems evolving from MgB_2. The HTSC-2025 benchmark has been open-sourced at https://github.com/xqh19970407/HTSC-2025 and will be continuously updated. This benchmark holds significant importance for accelerating the discovery of superconducting materials using AI-based methods.

For the first time in the world, we succeeded in synthesizing the room-temperature superconductor (T_c ge 400 K, 127^circC) working at ambient pressure with a modified lead-apatite (LK-99) structure. The superconductivity of LK-99 is proved with the Critical temperature (T_c), Zero-resistivity, Critical current (I_c), Critical magnetic field (H_c), and the Meissner effect. The superconductivity of LK-99 originates from minute structural distortion by a slight volume shrinkage (0.48 %), not by external factors such as temperature and pressure. The shrinkage is caused by Cu^{2+} substitution of Pb^{2+}(2) ions in the insulating network of Pb(2)-phosphate and it generates the stress. It concurrently transfers to Pb(1) of the cylindrical column resulting in distortion of the cylindrical column interface, which creates superconducting quantum wells (SQWs) in the interface. The heat capacity results indicated that the new model is suitable for explaining the superconductivity of LK-99. The unique structure of LK-99 that allows the minute distorted structure to be maintained in the interfaces is the most important factor that LK-99 maintains and exhibits superconductivity at room temperatures and ambient pressure.

Critical temperature, T_c, and the transition width, ΔT_c, are two primary parameters of the superconducting transition. The latter parameter reflects the superconducting state disturbance originating from the thermodynamic fluctuations, atomic disorder, applied magnetic field, the presence of secondary crystalline phases, applied pressure, etc. Recently, Hirsch and Marsiglio (2020 arXiv:2012.12796) performed an analysis of the transition width in several near-room-temperature superconductors (NRTS) and reported that the reduced transition width, ΔT_c/T_c, in these materials does not follow a conventional trend of transition width broadening on applied magnetic field observed in low- and high-T_c superconductors. Here we present thorough mathematical analysis of the magnetoresistive data, R(T,B), for the high-entropy alloy (ScZrNb)_{0.65}[RhPd]_{0.35} and hydrogen-rich superconductors of Im-3m-H_{3}S, C2/m-LaH_{10} and P63/mmc-CeH_9. We found that the reduced transition width, ΔT_c/T_c, in these materials does follow a conventional broadening trend on applied magnetic field.

Prediction of critical temperature (T_c) of a superconductor remains a significant challenge in condensed matter physics. While the BCS theory explains superconductivity in conventional superconductors, there is no framework to predict T_c of unconventional, higher T_{c} superconductors. Quantum Structure Diagrams (QSD) were successful in establishing structure-property relationship for superconductors, quasicrystals, and ferroelectric materials starting from chemical composition. Building on the QSD ideas, we demonstrate that the principal component analysis of superconductivity data uncovers the clustering of various classes of superconductors. We use machine learning analysis and cleaned databases of superconductors to develop predictive models of T_c of a superconductor using its chemical composition. Earlier studies relied on datasets with inconsistencies, leading to suboptimal predictions. To address this, we introduce a data-cleaning workflow to enhance the statistical quality of superconducting databases by eliminating redundancies and resolving inconsistencies. With this improvised database, we apply a supervised machine learning framework and develop a Random Forest model to predict superconductivity and T_c as a function of descriptors motivated from Quantum Structure Diagrams. We demonstrate that this model generalizes effectively in reasonably accurate prediction of T_{c} of compounds outside the database. We further employ our model to systematically screen materials across materials databases as well as various chemically plausible combinations of elements and predict Tl_{5}Ba_{6}Ca_{6}Cu_{9}O_{29} to exhibit superconductivity with a T_{c} sim 105 K. Being based on the descriptors used in QSD's, our model bypasses structural information and predicts T_{c} merely from the chemical composition.

We show that a simple gravitational theory can provide a holographically dual description of a superconductor. There is a critical temperature, below which a charged condensate forms via a second order phase transition and the (DC) conductivity becomes infinite. The frequency dependent conductivity develops a gap determined by the condensate. We find evidence that the condensate consists of pairs of quasiparticles.

The automatic extraction of materials and related properties from the scientific literature is gaining attention in data-driven materials science (Materials Informatics). In this paper, we discuss Grobid-superconductors, our solution for automatically extracting superconductor material names and respective properties from text. Built as a Grobid module, it combines machine learning and heuristic approaches in a multi-step architecture that supports input data as raw text or PDF documents. Using Grobid-superconductors, we built SuperCon2, a database of 40324 materials and properties records from 37700 papers. The material (or sample) information is represented by name, chemical formula, and material class, and is characterized by shape, doping, substitution variables for components, and substrate as adjoined information. The properties include the Tc superconducting critical temperature and, when available, applied pressure with the Tc measurement method.

We study Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton gravity models in four-dimensional anti-de Sitter (AdS) spacetime which admit the Reissner-Nordstrom (RN) black hole solution. We show that below a critical temperature the AdS-RN solution becomes unstable against scalar perturbations and the gravitational system undergoes a phase transition. We show using numerical calculations that the new phase is a charged dilatonic black hole. Using the AdS/CFT correspondence we discuss the phase transition in the dual field theory both for non-vanishing temperatures and in the extremal limit. The extremal solution has a Lifshitz scaling symmetry. We discuss the optical conductivity in the new dual phase and find interesting behavior at low frequencies where it shows a "Drude peak". The resistivity varies with temperature in a non-monotonic way and displays a minimum at low temperatures which is reminiscent of the celebrated Kondo effect.

The thermal relaxation time of neutron stars, typically defined by a sudden drop in surface temperature, is usually on the order of 10 to 100 years. In this study, we investigate neutron star thermal relaxation by incorporating nucleon superfluidity and non-nucleonic particles, specifically considering hyperons as a representative case. We find that rapidly cooling neutron stars driven by neutron superfluidity and direct Urca processes demonstrate delayed thermal relaxation under specific physical conditions. The former acquires that the neutron ^3P_2 critical temperature is small enough, whereas the latter depends on the presence of a small core that permits direct Urca processes. To explore these scenarios, we propose simple theoretical frameworks to describe these delayed thermal relaxation behaviors and discuss how an recently-established enhanced modified Urca rate influences the relaxation time. By confronting the theoretical results with the observation of Cassiopeia A, we can effectively constrain the maximum neutron ^3P_2 critical temperature.

Recent experiments on 2D superconductors allow the characterization of the critical temperature and of the phase diagram across the BCS-BEC crossover as a function of density. We obtain from these experiments the microscopic parameters of the superconducting state at low temperatures by the BCS mean-field approach. For Li_xZrNCl, the extracted parameters are used to evaluate the superconducting phase stiffness and the Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) critical temperature throughout the BCS-BEC crossover, by implementing the corresponding Renormalization Group (RG) approach. In this way, we make a quantitative test of the predictive power of the BKT theory for evaluating the critical temperature. The RG flow equations turn out to give a sizable renormalization of the phase stiffness and of the critical temperature, which is crucial to obtain a satisfactory agreement between the BKT theory and the experiments, in particular in the BCS-BEC crossover regime. We predict the temperature range where phase stiffness renormalization can be measured in Li_xZrNCl across the BCS-BEC crossover. Contrary to other microscopic theories of superconductivity, we find that the BKT theory can be exploited to evaluate quantitatively the critical temperature of 2D superconductors in different pairing regimes.

We explore the consequences of multi-trace deformations in applications of gauge-gravity duality to condensed matter physics. We find that they introduce a powerful new "knob" that can implement spontaneous symmetry breaking, and can be used to construct a new type of holographic superconductor. This knob can be tuned to drive the critical temperature to zero, leading to a new quantum critical point. We calculate nontrivial critical exponents, and show that fluctuations of the order parameter are `locally' quantum critical in the disordered phase. Most notably the dynamical critical exponent is determined by the dimension of an operator at the critical point. We argue that the results are robust against quantum corrections and discuss various generalizations.

We investigate in more detail the holographic model of a superconductor recently found by Hartnoll, Herzog, and Horowitz [Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 031601], which is constructed from a condensate of a charged scalar field in AdS_4-Schwarzschild background. By analytically studying the perturbation of the gravitational system near the critical temperature T_c, we obtain the superconducting coherence length proportional to 1/1-T/T_c via AdS/CFT correspondence. By adding a small external homogeneous magnetic field to the system, we find that a stationary diamagnetic current proportional to the square of the order parameter is induced by the magnetic field. These results agree with Ginzburg-Landau theory and strongly support the idea that a superconductor can be described by a charged scalar field on a black hole via AdS/CFT duality.

Topological kagome systems have been a topic of great interest in condensed matter physics due totheir unique electronic properties. The vanadium-based kagome materials are particularly intrigu-ing since they exhibit exotic phenomena such as charge density wave (CDW) and unconventionalsuperconductivity. The origin of these electronic instabilities is not fully understood, and the re-cent discovery of a charge density wave in ScV6Sn6provides a new avenue for investigation. In thiswork, we investigate the electronic structure of the novel kagome metal ScV6Sn6using angle resolvedphotoemission spectroscopy (ARPES), scanning tunneling microscopy (STM), and first-principlesdensity functional theory calculations. Our analysis reveals for the first time the temperature-dependent band changes of ScV6Sn6and identifies a new band that exhibits a strong signatureof a structure with CDW below the critical temperature. Further analysis revealed that this newband is due to the surface kagome layer of the CDW structure. In addition, a Lifshitz transition isidentified in the ARPES spectra that is related to the saddle point moving across the Fermi levelat the critical temperature for the CDW formation. This result shows the CDW behavior may alsobe related to nesting of the saddle point, similar to related materials. However, no energy gap is observed at the Fermi level and thus the CDW is not a typical Fermi surface nesting scenario. These results provide new insights into the underlying physics of the CDW in the kagome materials and could have implications for the development of materials with new functionality.

The superfluid phase transition dynamics and associated spontaneous vortex formation with the crossing of the critical temperature in a disk geometry is studied in the framework of the AdS/CFT correspondence by solving the Einstein-Abelian-Higgs model in an AdS_4 black hole. For a slow quench, the vortex density admits a universal scaling law with the cooling rate as predicted by the Kibble-Zurek mechanism (KZM), while for fast quenches, the density shows a universal scaling behavior as a function of the final temperature, that lies beyond the KZM prediction. The vortex number distribution in both the power-law and saturation regimes can be approximated by a normal distribution. However, the study of the universal scaling of the cumulants reveals non-normal features and indicates that vortex statistics in the newborn superfluid is best described by the Poisson binomial distribution, previously predicted in the KZM regime [Phys. Rev. Lett. 124, 240602 (2020)]. This is confirmed by studying the cumulant scalings as a function of the quench time and the quench depth. Our work supports the existence of a universal defect number distribution that accommodates the KZM scaling, its breakdown at fast quenches, and the additional universal scaling laws as a function of the final value of the control parameter.

The application of superconducting materials is becoming more and more widespread. Traditionally, the discovery of new superconducting materials relies on the experience of experts and a large number of "trial and error" experiments, which not only increases the cost of experiments but also prolongs the period of discovering new superconducting materials. In recent years, machine learning has been increasingly applied to materials science. Based on this, this manuscript proposes the use of XGBoost model to identify superconductors; the first application of deep forest model to predict the critical temperature of superconductors; the first application of deep forest to predict the band gap of materials; and application of a new sub-network model to predict the Fermi energy level of materials. Compared with our known similar literature, all the above algorithms reach state-of-the-art. Finally, this manuscript uses the above models to search the COD public dataset and identify 50 candidate superconducting materials with possible critical temperature greater than 90 K.

The optical properties of the superconducting K_{0.8}Fe_{1.7}(Se_{0.73}S_{0.27})_2 single crystals with a critical temperature T_capprox 26 K have been measured in the {\it ab} plane in a wide frequency range using both infrared Fourier-transform spectroscopy and spectroscopic ellipsometry at temperatures of 4--300 K. The normal-state reflectance of K_{0.8}Fe_{1.7}(Se_{0.73}S_{0.27})_2 is analyzed using a Drude-Lorentz model with one Drude component. The temperature dependences of the plasma frequency, optical conductivity, scattering rate, and dc resistivity of the Drude contribution in the normal state are presented. In the superconducting state, we observe a signature of the superconducting gap opening at 2Δ(5~K) = 11.8~meV. An abrupt decrease in the low-frequency dielectric permittivity varepsilon _1(ω) at T < T_c also evidences the formation of the superconducting condensate. The superconducting plasma frequency ω_{pl,s} = (213pm 5)~cm^{-1} and the magnetic penetration depth λ=(7.5pm 0.2)~μm at T=5~K are determined.

We construct holographic superconductors from Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton gravity in 3+1 dimensions with two adjustable couplings alpha and the charge q carried by the scalar field. For the values of alpha and q we consider, there is always a critical temperature at which a second order phase transition occurs between a hairy black hole and the AdS RN black hole in the canonical ensemble, which can be identified with the superconducting phase transition of the dual field theory. We calculate the electric conductivity of the dual superconductor and find that for the values of alpha and q where alpha/q is small the dual superconductor has similar properties to the minimal model, while for the values of alpha and q where alpha/q is large enough, the electric conductivity of the dual superconductor exhibits novel properties at low frequencies where it shows a "Drude Peak" in the real part of the conductivity.

Exploratory synthesis efforts for iron-based superconductors (FeSC) have been driven by hopes of improving superconducting critical temperatures (TCs), providing high-quality samples for in-depth studies of intrinsic properties, and exploring potential superconductivity in similar families of materials. This manuscript summarizes the synthesis routes that are used for producing FeSC and their undoped parents, in single crystal and polycrystalline forms. A few of the materials challenges are summarized.

Superconductivity allows electrical current to flow without any energy loss, and thus making solids superconducting is a grand goal of physics, material science, and electrical engineering. More than 16 Nobel Laureates have been awarded for their contribution to superconductivity research. Superconductors are valuable for sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as climate change mitigation, affordable and clean energy, industry, innovation and infrastructure, and so on. However, a unified physics theory explaining all superconductivity mechanism is still unknown. It is believed that superconductivity is microscopically due to not only molecular compositions but also the geometric crystal structure. Hence a new dataset, S2S, containing both crystal structures and superconducting critical temperature, is built upon SuperCon and Material Project. Based on this new dataset, we propose a novel model, S2SNet, which utilizes the attention mechanism for superconductivity prediction. To overcome the shortage of data, S2SNet is pre-trained on the whole Material Project dataset with Masked-Language Modeling (MLM). S2SNet makes a new state-of-the-art, with out-of-sample accuracy of 92% and Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.92. To the best of our knowledge, S2SNet is the first work to predict superconductivity with only information of crystal structures. This work is beneficial to superconductivity discovery and further SDGs. Code and datasets are available in https://github.com/zjuKeLiu/S2SNet

Symbolic logical reasoning is a critical yet underexplored capability of large language models (LLMs), providing reliable and verifiable decision-making in high-stakes domains such as mathematical reasoning and legal judgment. In this study, we present a systematic analysis of logical reasoning under controlled increases in logical complexity, and reveal a previously unrecognized phenomenon, which we term Logical Phase Transitions: rather than degrading smoothly, logical reasoning performance remains stable within a regime but collapses abruptly beyond a critical logical depth, mirroring physical phase transitions such as water freezing beyond a critical temperature threshold. Building on this insight, we propose Neuro-Symbolic Curriculum Tuning, a principled framework that adaptively aligns natural language with logical symbols to establish a shared representation, and reshapes training dynamics around phase-transition boundaries to progressively strengthen reasoning at increasing logical depths. Experiments on five benchmarks show that our approach effectively mitigates logical reasoning collapse at high complexity, yielding average accuracy gains of +1.26 in naive prompting and +3.95 in CoT, while improving generalization to unseen logical compositions. Code and data are available at https://github.com/AI4SS/Logical-Phase-Transitions.

A growing number of papers are published in the area of superconducting materials science. However, novel text and data mining (TDM) processes are still needed to efficiently access and exploit this accumulated knowledge, paving the way towards data-driven materials design. Herein, we present SuperMat (Superconductor Materials), an annotated corpus of linked data derived from scientific publications on superconductors, which comprises 142 articles, 16052 entities, and 1398 links that are characterised into six categories: the names, classes, and properties of materials; links to their respective superconducting critical temperature (Tc); and parametric conditions such as applied pressure or measurement methods. The construction of SuperMat resulted from a fruitful collaboration between computer scientists and material scientists, and its high quality is ensured through validation by domain experts. The quality of the annotation guidelines was ensured by satisfactory Inter Annotator Agreement (IAA) between the annotators and the domain experts. SuperMat includes the dataset, annotation guidelines, and annotation support tools that use automatic suggestions to help minimise human errors.

Through rational chemical design, and thanks to the hybrid nature of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), it is possible to prepare molecule-based 2D magnetic materials stable at ambient conditions. Here, we illustrate the versatility of this approach by changing both the metallic nodes and the ligands in a family of layered MOFs that allows the tuning of their magnetic properties. Specifically, the reaction of benzimidazole-type ligands with different metal centres (MII = Fe, Co, Mn, Zn) in a solvent-free synthesis produces a family of crystalline materials, denoted as MUV-1(M), which order antiferromagnetically with critical temperatures that depend on M. Furthermore, the incorporation of additional substituents in the ligand results in a novel system, denoted as MUV-8, formed by covalently bound magnetic double-layers interconnected by van der Waals interactions, a topology that is very rare in the field of 2D materials and unprecedented for 2D magnets. These layered materials are robust enough to be mechanically exfoliated down to a few layers with large lateral dimensions. Finally, the robustness and crystallinity of these layered MOFs allow the fabrication of nanomechanical resonators that can be used to detect -- through laser interferometry -- the magnetic order in thin layers of these 2D molecule-based antiferromagnets.

"Pasta alla Cacio e pepe" is a traditional Italian dish made with pasta, pecorino cheese, and pepper. Despite its simple ingredient list, achieving the perfect texture and creaminess of the sauce can be challenging. In this study, we systematically explore the phase behavior of Cacio and pepe sauce, focusing on its stability at increasing temperatures for various proportions of cheese, water, and starch. We identify starch concentration as the key factor influencing sauce stability, with direct implications for practical cooking. Specifically, we delineate a regime where starch concentrations below 1% (relative to cheese mass) lead to the formation of system-wide clumps, a condition determining what we term the "Mozzarella Phase" and corresponding to an unpleasant and separated sauce. Additionally, we examine the impact of cheese concentration relative to water at a fixed starch level, observing a lower critical solution temperature that we theoretically rationalized by means of a minimal effective free-energy model. Finally, we present a scientifically optimized recipe based on our findings, enabling a consistently flawless execution of this classic dish.

Optical detection of magnetic resonance enables spin-based quantum sensing with high spatial resolution and sensitivity-even at room temperature-as exemplified by solid-state defects. Molecular systems provide a complementary, chemically tunable, platform for room-temperature optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR)-based quantum sensing. A critical parameter governing sensing sensitivity is the optical contrast-i.e., the difference in emission between two spin states. In state-of-the-art solid-state defects such as the nitrogen-vacancy center in diamond, this contrast is approximately 30%. Here, capitalizing on chemical tunability, we show that room-temperature ODMR contrasts of 40% can be achieved in molecules. Using a nitrogen-substituted analogue of pentacene (6,13-diazapentacene), we enhance contrast compared to pentacene and, by determining the triplet kinetics through time-dependent pulsed ODMR, show how this arises from accelerated anisotropic intersystem crossing. Furthermore, we translate high-contrast room-temperature pulsed ODMR to self-assembled nanocrystals. Overall, our findings highlight the synthetic handles available to optically readable molecular spins and the opportunities to capitalize on chemical tunability for room-temperature quantum sensing.

The sampling temperature, a critical hyperparameter in large language models (LLMs), modifies the logits before the softmax layer, thereby reshaping the distribution of output tokens. Recent studies have challenged the Stochastic Parrots analogy by demonstrating that LLMs are capable of understanding semantics rather than merely memorizing data and that randomness, modulated by sampling temperature, plays a crucial role in model inference. In this study, we systematically evaluated the impact of temperature in the range of 0 to 2 on data sets designed to assess six different capabilities, conducting statistical analyses on open source models of three different sizes: small (1B--4B), medium (6B--13B), and large (40B--80B). Our findings reveal distinct skill-specific effects of temperature on model performance, highlighting the complexity of optimal temperature selection in practical applications. To address this challenge, we propose a BERT-based temperature selector that takes advantage of these observed effects to identify the optimal temperature for a given prompt. We demonstrate that this approach can significantly improve the performance of small and medium models in the SuperGLUE datasets. Furthermore, our study extends to FP16 precision inference, revealing that temperature effects are consistent with those observed in 4-bit quantized models. By evaluating temperature effects up to 4.0 in three quantized models, we find that the Mutation Temperature -- the point at which significant performance changes occur -- increases with model size.

An electro-optic modulator offers the function of modulating the propagation of light in a material with electric field and enables seamless connection between electronics-based computing and photonics-based communication. The search for materials with large electro-optic coefficients and low optical loss is critical to increase the efficiency and minimize the size of electro-optic devices. We present a semi-empirical method to compute the electro-optic coefficients of ferroelectric materials by combining first-principles density-functional theory calculations with Landau-Devonshire phenomenological modeling. We apply the method to study the electro-optic constants, also called Pockels coefficients, of three paradigmatic ferroelectric oxides: BaTiO3, LiNbO3, and LiTaO3. We present their temperature-, frequency- and strain-dependent electro-optic tensors calculated using our method. The predicted electro-optic constants agree with the experimental results, where available, and provide benchmarks for experimental verification.

How much do large language models actually hallucinate when answering questions grounded in provided documents? Despite the critical importance of this question for enterprise AI deployments, reliable measurement has been hampered by benchmarks that rely on static datasets vulnerable to contamination, LLM-based judges with documented biases, or evaluation scales too small for statistical confidence. We address this gap using RIKER, a ground-truth-first evaluation methodology that enables deterministic scoring without human annotation. Across 35 open-weight models, three context lengths (32K, 128K, and 200K tokens), four temperature settings, and three hardware platforms (NVIDIA H200, AMD MI300X, and Intel Gaudi 3), we conducted over 172 billion tokens of evaluation - an order of magnitude beyond prior work. Our findings reveal that: (1) even the best-performing models fabricate answers at a non-trivial rate - 1.19% at best at 32K, with top-tier models at 5 - 7% - and fabrication rises steeply with context length, nearly tripling at 128K and exceeding 10% for all models at 200K; (2) model selection dominates all other factors, with overall accuracy spanning a 72-percentage-point range and model family predicting fabrication resistance better than model size; (3) temperature effects are nuanced - T=0.0 yields the best overall accuracy in roughly 60% of cases, but higher temperatures reduce fabrication for the majority of models and dramatically reduce coherence loss (infinite generation loops), which can reach 48x higher rates at T=0.0 versus T=1.0; (4) grounding ability and fabrication resistance are distinct capabilities - models that excel at finding facts may still fabricate facts that do not exist; and (5) results are consistent across hardware platforms, confirming that deployment decisions need not be hardware-dependent.

The amplitude of ground state superconducting energy gap Δ(0) and relative jump in electronic specific heat at the transition temperature, ΔC{/}γT_c, are primary fundamental parameters of any superconductor. There are several well-established techniques to measure these values for bulk samples. However, there is limited number of techniques which can be applied to measure these parameters in atomically thin superconductors. Here we proposed a new approach to extract Δ(0) and ΔC{/}γT_c in atomically thin superconductors by utilizing perpendicular, Bc2,perp(T) (when magnetic field is applied in perpendicular direction to the film surface), and parallel, Bc2,||(T) (when magnetic field is applied in parallel direction to the film surface), upper critical field data. Deduced parameters for few layers thick Al, Sn, NbSe2, MoS2, magic angle twisted trilayer graphene (MATTG), and WTe2 are well matched values expected for strong- and moderately strong-coupled electron-phonon mediated superconductors. Observed, in many atomically thin superconductors, an enhancement of Bc2,||(0) above the Pauli-Clogston-Chandrasekhar limiting field (i.e., magnetic field required to break the Cooper pair) is explained based on the sample geometry, without an assumption that some exotic pairing mechanism, for instance, Ising-type, is emergent in these materials.

The development of advanced diagnostic systems to measure and optimize emerging energetic material performance is critical for the defeat of Chemical Warfare Agents (CWA). This study presents an integrated multi-spectroscopic approach to monitor the interaction between a CWA simulant, Diisopropyl Methyl Phosphonate (DIMP), and combusting composite metal particles. A custom benchtop Polygonal Rotating Mirror Infrared Spectrometer (PRiMIRS), equipped with a customizable experimental chamber, is employed to observe DIMP decomposition. Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS) is used to measure path-averaged gas temperature profiles during combustion. In the experiment, the chamber is preheated to evaporate liquid DIMP. Various composite metal powders (Al-8Mg):3Zr, (Al-8Mg):Zr, 2(Al-8Mg):Zr, and 4(Al-8Mg):Zr are placed on a stainless steel mount and ignited using 3Al-2Ni sputter-deposited nanolayered foils. The combusting metal particles mix with the DIMP vapor, initiating chemical and thermal interactions. PRiMIRS captures DIMP spectral evolution, while TDLAS simultaneously monitors gas temperature. A spectral defeat parameter was developed to enable quantitative real-time assessment of the DIMP destruction. It uses infrared light absorption by both from DIMP and its immediate decomposition products Isopropyl Methyl Phosphonate (IMP) and Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA). Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) serves as a secondary verification tool quantifying the decomposition products over extended timeframes, and Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) confirms the expected metal oxide dispersion within the reaction space. This study reports variability in DIMP defeat as a function of metal powder stoichiometry, metal powder loading, and path-averaged gas temperature profiles, offering critical insights into optimizing reactive materials for effective CWA neutralization.

This paper presents a practical investigation into fine-tuning model parameters for mathematical reasoning tasks through experimenting with various configurations including randomness control, reasoning depth, and sampling strategies, careful tuning demonstrates substantial improvements in efficiency as well as performance. A holistically optimized framework is introduced for five state-of-the-art models on mathematical reasoning tasks, exhibiting significant performance boosts while maintaining solution correctness. Through systematic parameter optimization across Qwen2.5-72B, Llama-3.1-70B, DeepSeek-V3, Mixtral-8x22B, and Yi-Lightning, consistent efficiency gains are demonstrated with 100% optimization success rate. The methodology achieves an average 29.4% reduction in computational cost and 23.9% improvement in inference speed across all tested models. This framework systematically searches parameter spaces including temperature (0.1-0.5), reasoning steps (4-12), planning periods (1-4), and nucleus sampling (0.85-0.98), determining optimal configurations through testing on mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Critical findings show that lower temperature regimes (0.1-0.4) and reduced reasoning steps (4-6) consistently enhance efficiency without compromising accuracy. DeepSeek-V3 achieves the highest accuracy at 98%, while Mixtral-8x22B delivers the most cost-effective performance at 361.5 tokens per accurate response. Key contributions include: (1) the first comprehensive optimization study for five diverse SOTA models in mathematical reasoning, (2) a standardized production-oriented parameter optimization framework, (3) discovery of universal optimization trends applicable across model architectures, and (4) production-ready configurations with extensive performance characterization.

We perform a Monte Carlo analysis of the Ising model on many three-dimensional lattices. By means of finite-size scaling we obtain the critical points and determine the scaling dimensions. As expected, the critical exponents agree with the three-dimensional Ising universality class for all models. The irrelevant field, as revealed by the correction-to-scaling amplitudes, appears to be relatively large. Combining the Monte Carlo results for the hydrogen peroxide lattice with those for five other three-dimensional lattices, we obtain a set of data covering a wide range of the irrelevant temperature field. This is helpful in the determination of the parameters describing the corrections to scaling. As a consequence, new results are obtained for the universal parameters describing Ising criticality in three dimensions, with reduced error margins in comparison with earlier Monte Carlo analyses. The critical exponents describing the thermodynamic singularities are determined by the temperature renormalization exponent y_t = 1.58693 (9) and the magnetic renormalization exponent y_h = 2.48178 (5). The corrections to scaling are governed by the irrelevant exponent y_1 = -0.821 (5).

In a two-band superconductor, two qualitatively different fluctuation modes related to the gap modules contribute to free energy and heat capacity, in addition to the phase fluctuations. The first mode has divergent temperature behaviour since it accounts for the critical fluctuations around the phase transition point, Tc, along with pseudo-critical ones associated with former instability of the weaker-superconductivity component. The involvement of these two factors, competing under interband interaction, results in the Ginzburg number which increases with Tc non-monotonically, allowing the reduction up to 75%. This makes fluctuations effective for revealing additional superconducting component in the system. The second mode does not diverge, but has a jump at Tc, defined uniquely by the strength of interband interaction. This mode contributes fundamentally beyond critical domain.

I review two classes of strong coupling problems in condensed matter physics, and describe insights gained by application of the AdS/CFT correspondence. The first class concerns non-zero temperature dynamics and transport in the vicinity of quantum critical points described by relativistic field theories. I describe how relativistic structures arise in models of physical interest, present results for their quantum critical crossover functions and magneto-thermoelectric hydrodynamics. The second class concerns symmetry breaking transitions of two-dimensional systems in the presence of gapless electronic excitations at isolated points or along lines (i.e. Fermi surfaces) in the Brillouin zone. I describe the scaling structure of a recent theory of the Ising-nematic transition in metals, and discuss its possible connection to theories of Fermi surfaces obtained from simple AdS duals.

We present AutoBool, a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that trains large language models (LLMs) to generate effective Boolean queries for medical systematic reviews. Boolean queries are the primary mechanism for literature retrieval in this domain and must achieve high recall while maintaining reasonable precision - a challenging balance that existing prompt-based LLM approaches often struggle to achieve. A major limitation in this space is the lack of high-quality ground-truth Boolean queries for each topic, which makes supervised fine-tuning impractical. AutoBool addresses this challenge by using RL to directly optimize query generation with retrieval measures, without requiring target queries. To support this effort, we create and release the largest dataset of its kind: 65588 topics in total for training and evaluating the task of automatic Boolean query formulation. Experiments on our new dataset and two established datasets (CLEF TAR and Seed Collection) show that AutoBool significantly outperforms zero shot/few shot prompting and matches or exceeds the effectiveness of much larger GPT-based models (e.g., GPT-4o, O3) using smaller backbones. It also approaches effectiveness of expert-authored queries while retrieving 10 to 16 times fewer documents. Ablation studies reveal the critical roles of model backbone, size, decoding temperature, and prompt design. Code and data are available at https://github.com/ielab/AutoBool.

We report on studies of the superconducting and normal state properties of the noncentrosymmetric superconductor BeAu under hydrostatic pressure conditions. The room-temperature equation of state (EOS) reveals the values of the bulk modulus (B_0) and its first derivative (B^prime_0) at ambient pressure to be B_0 simeq 132~GPa and B^prime_0 simeq 30, respectively. Up to the highest pressures studied (p simeq 2.2~GPa), BeAu remains a multi-gap type-I superconductor. The analysis of B_{rm c}(T, p) data within the self-consistent two-gap approach suggests the presence of two superconducting energy gaps, with the gap-to-T_{rm c} ratios Δ_1/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} sim 2.3 and Δ_2/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} sim 1.1 for the larger and smaller gaps, respectively [Δ= Δ(0) is the zero-temperature value of the gap and k_{rm B} is the Boltzmann constant]. With increasing pressure, Δ_1/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} increases while Δ_2/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} decreases, suggesting that pressure enhances (weakens) the coupling strength between the superconducting carriers within the bands where the larger (smaller) superconducting energy gap has opened. The superconducting transition temperature T_{rm c}, black{the zero-temperature values of the superconducting gaps Δ_1 and Δ_2} and the zero-temperature value of the thermodynamic critical field B_{rm c}(0) decrease with increasing pressure, with the rates of {rm d}T_{rm c}/{rm d}p simeq -0.195~K/GPa, black{{rm d}Δ_1/{rm d}p simeq -0.034~meV/GPa, {rm d}Δ_2/{rm d}p simeq -0.029~meV/GPa,} and {rm d}B_{rm c}(0)/{rm d}p = -2.65(1)~mT/GPa, respectively. The measured B_{rm c}(0) values plotted as a function of T_{rm c} follow an empirical scaling relation established for conventional type-I superconductors.

Multimodal learning has recently gained significant popularity, demonstrating impressive performance across various zero-shot classification tasks and a range of perceptive and generative applications. Models such as Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) are designed to bridge different modalities, such as images and text, by learning a shared representation space through contrastive learning. Despite their success, the working mechanisms underlying multimodal learning are not yet well understood. Notably, these models often exhibit a modality gap, where different modalities occupy distinct regions within the shared representation space. In this work, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the emergence of modality gap by characterizing the gradient flow learning dynamics. Specifically, we identify the critical roles of mismatched data pairs and a learnable temperature parameter in causing and perpetuating the modality gap during training. Furthermore, our theoretical insights are validated through experiments on practical CLIP models. These findings provide principled guidance for mitigating the modality gap, including strategies such as appropriate temperature scheduling and modality swapping. Additionally, we demonstrate that closing the modality gap leads to improved performance on tasks such as image-text retrieval.

Large language models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention for their remarkable abilities in various natural language processing tasks, but they suffer from hallucinations that will cause performance degradation. One promising solution to improve the LLMs' performance is to ask LLMs to revise their answer after generation, a technique known as self-correction. Among the two types of self-correction, intrinsic self-correction is considered a promising direction because it does not utilize external knowledge. However, recent works doubt the validity of LLM's ability to conduct intrinsic self-correction. In this paper, we present a novel perspective on the intrinsic self-correction capabilities of LLMs through theoretical analyses and empirical experiments. In addition, we identify two critical factors for successful self-correction: zero temperature and fair prompts. Leveraging these factors, we demonstrate that intrinsic self-correction ability is exhibited across multiple existing LLMs. Our findings offer insights into the fundamental theories underlying the self-correction behavior of LLMs and remark on the importance of unbiased prompts and zero temperature settings in harnessing their full potential.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

We propose a novel method to locate the QCD critical point by constructing an expansion along contours of constant entropy density. Applying two independent analysis of lattice QCD data at zero baryon chemical potential, we find a critical point at T_c = 114 pm 7 MeV and μ_{B_c} = 602 pm 62 MeV for an expansion truncated at order μ_B^2. This approach is consistent with recent lattice QCD results up to μ_B/T leq 3. A more precise determination of the required expansion coefficients from lattice simulations will be essential for reliably establishing the location of the QCD critical endpoint.

Critical learning periods are periods early in development where temporary sensory deficits can have a permanent effect on behavior and learned representations. Despite the radical differences between biological and artificial networks, critical learning periods have been empirically observed in both systems. This suggests that critical periods may be fundamental to learning and not an accident of biology. Yet, why exactly critical periods emerge in deep networks is still an open question, and in particular it is unclear whether the critical periods observed in both systems depend on particular architectural or optimization details. To isolate the key underlying factors, we focus on deep linear network models, and show that, surprisingly, such networks also display much of the behavior seen in biology and artificial networks, while being amenable to analytical treatment. We show that critical periods depend on the depth of the model and structure of the data distribution. We also show analytically and in simulations that the learning of features is tied to competition between sources. Finally, we extend our analysis to multi-task learning to show that pre-training on certain tasks can damage the transfer performance on new tasks, and show how this depends on the relationship between tasks and the duration of the pre-training stage. To the best of our knowledge, our work provides the first analytically tractable model that sheds light into why critical learning periods emerge in biological and artificial networks.

We successfully synthesized a novel intermetallic compound rm CrFe_2Ge_2 with the rm Fe_{13}Ge_{8}-type crystal structure. A structural study is presented combining single-crystal X-ray diffraction and Mössbauer spectroscopy analysis, confirming the presence of two distinct Fe sublattices. rm CrFe_2Ge_2 exhibits a metallic ferromagnetic state with T_C approx rm 200~K. This material does not follow the usual M^2 propto H/M Arrott law, rather a modified Arrott law is obeyed in this material. The critical exponents determined from detailed analysis of modified Arrott plots were found to be β= 0.392, γ= 1.309 and δ= 4.26 obtained from the critical isotherm at T_{rm C} =rm 200~K. Self-consistency and reliability of the critical exponent analysis were verified by the Widom scaling law and scaling equations. Using the results from renormalization group calculation, the critical behavior of rm CrFe_2Ge_2 is akin to that of a d=3, n=3 ferromagnet in which the magnetic exhange distance is found to decay as J(r) approx r^{-4.86} with long-range magnetic coupling. The evaluated Rhodes-Wohlfarth ratio of sim 3 points to an itinerant ferromagnetic ground state. Low-temperature measurements of resistivity, p(T), and specific heat, C_P(T), reveal a pronounced contribution from electron-magnon scattering.

Pressure, together with temperature and magnetic field, is an important thermodynamical parameter in physics. Investigating the response of a compound or of a material to pressure allows to elucidate ground states, investigate their interplay and interactions and determine microscopic parameters. Pressure tuning is used to establish phase diagrams, study phase transitions and identify critical points. Muon spin rotation/relaxation (muSR) is now a standard technique making increasing significant contribution in condensed matter physics, material science research and other fields. In this review, we will discuss specific requirements and challenges to perform muSR experiments under pressure, introduce the high-pressure muon facility at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI, Switzerland) and present selected results obtained by combining the sensitivity of the muSR technique with pressure.

We construct the charged Hayward-anti-de Sitter (AdS) black hole (BH) with a cloud of strings (CS) and perfect fluid dark matter (PFDM), and analyze its extended thermodynamic phase structure. The Hayward parameter g replaces the central singularity with a de Sitter (dS) core, while the CS parameter a and the PFDM parameter β encode astrophysically motivated matter content. Treating the cosmological constant as pressure, we derive the thermodynamic quantities, verify the Smarr relation, and establish P--V criticality with a van der Waals (vdW)-like small-large BH phase transition and mean-field critical exponents. The Gibbs free energy (GFE) exhibits the characteristic swallowtail below the critical pressure. The Joule-Thomson (JT) expansion yields T_i^{rm min}/T_c approx 0.247, roughly half the Reissner--Nordström-AdS value. The parameters g and Q contract the cooling region, β expands it, and a reshapes it non-monotonically. A holographic heat engine with a rectangular cycle gives efficiencies η= 0.362--0.396 and Carnot benchmarking ratios η/η_C = 0.625--0.791 across six configurations. The CS parameter improves the engine efficiency by reducing the enthalpy at fixed thermodynamic volume, while the PFDM parameter degrades it by adding gravitational enthalpy without contributing to the mechanical work.

The temperature parameter plays a profound role during training and/or inference with large foundation models (LFMs) such as large language models (LLMs) and CLIP models. Particularly, it adjusts the logits in the softmax function in LLMs, which is crucial for next token generation, and it scales the similarities in the contrastive loss for training CLIP models. A significant question remains: Is it viable to learn a neural network to predict a personalized temperature of any input data for enhancing LFMs"? In this paper, we present a principled framework for learning a small yet generalizable temperature prediction network (TempNet) to improve LFMs. Our solution is composed of a novel learning framework with a robust loss underpinned by constrained distributionally robust optimization (DRO), and a properly designed TempNet with theoretical inspiration. TempNet can be trained together with a large foundation model from scratch or learned separately given a pretrained foundation model. It is not only useful for predicting personalized temperature to promote the training of LFMs but also generalizable and transferable to new tasks. Our experiments on LLMs and CLIP models demonstrate that TempNet greatly improves the performance of existing solutions or models, e.g. Table 1. The code to reproduce the experimental results in this paper can be found at https://github.com/zhqiu/TempNet.

We initiate a holographic model building approach to `strange metallic' phenomenology. Our model couples a neutral Lifshitz-invariant quantum critical theory, dual to a bulk gravitational background, to a finite density of gapped probe charge carriers, dually described by D-branes. In the physical regime of temperature much lower than the charge density and gap, we exhibit anomalous scalings of the temperature and frequency dependent conductivity. Choosing the dynamical critical exponent z appropriately we can match the non-Fermi liquid scalings, such as linear resistivity, observed in strange metal regimes. As part of our investigation we outline three distinct string theory realizations of Lifshitz geometries: from F theory, from polarised branes, and from a gravitating charged Fermi gas. We also identify general features of renormalisation group flow in Lifshitz theories, such as the appearance of relevant charge-charge interactions when z geq 2. We outline a program to extend this model building approach to other anomalous observables of interest such as the Hall conductivity.

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration and introduce a novel calibration method, Parametrized Temperature Scaling (PTS). Standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, which can be transformed into calibrated confidence scores using post-hoc calibration methods. In this contribution, we demonstrate that the performance of accuracy-preserving state-of-the-art post-hoc calibrators is limited by their intrinsic expressive power. We generalize temperature scaling by computing prediction-specific temperatures, parameterized by a neural network. We show with extensive experiments that our novel accuracy-preserving approach consistently outperforms existing algorithms across a large number of model architectures, datasets and metrics.

We investigate the signatures of Fermi liquid formation in the N=4 super Yang-Mills theory coupled to fundamental hypermultiplet at nonvanishing chemical potential for the global U(1) vector symmetry. At strong 't Hooft coupling the system can be analyzed in terms of the D7 brane dynamics in AdS_5 x S^5 background. The phases with vanishing and finite charge density are separated at zero temperature by a quantum phase transition. In case of vanishing hypermultiplet mass, Karch, Son and Starinets discovered a gapless excitation whose speed equals the speed of sound. We find that this zero sound mode persists to all values of the hypermultiplet mass, and its speed vanishes at the point of phase transition. The value of critical exponent and the ratio of the velocities of zero and first sounds are consistent with the predictions of Landau Fermi liquid theory at strong coupling.

We find candidate macroscopic gravity duals for scale-invariant but non-Lorentz invariant fixed points, which do not have particle number as a conserved quantity. We compute two-point correlation functions which exhibit novel behavior relative to their AdS counterparts, and find holographic renormalization group flows to conformal field theories. Our theories are characterized by a dynamical critical exponent z, which governs the anisotropy between spatial and temporal scaling t to lambda^z t, x to lambda x; we focus on the case with z=2. Such theories describe multicritical points in certain magnetic materials and liquid crystals, and have been shown to arise at quantum critical points in toy models of the cuprate superconductors. This work can be considered a small step towards making useful dual descriptions of such critical points.

We report a quasi-one-dimensional S = 1 spin chain compound BaNiTe2O7. This magnetic system has been investigated by magnetic susceptibility, specific heat, and neutron powder diffraction. These results indicate that BaNiTe2O7 develops a short-range magnetic correlation around T ~ 22 K. With further cooling, an antiferromagnetic phase transition is observed at TN ~ 5.4 K. Neutron powder diffraction revealed antiferromagnetic noncollinear order with a commensurate propagation vector k = (1/2, 1, 0). The refined magnetic moment size of Ni2+ at 1.5 K is 1.84{\mu}B, and its noncollinear spin texture is confirmed by first-principles calculations. Inelastic neutron-scattering results and density functional theory calculations confirmed the quasi-one-dimensional nature of the spin systems.

We have systematically investigated the grain boundary (GB) angle dependence of transport properties for NdFeAs(O,F) fabricated on [001]-tilt symmetric MgO bicrystal substrates. In our previous study, NdFeAs(O,F) bicrystal films showed a weak-link behaviour even at a GB angle of 6°. However, this was caused by an extrinsic effect originating from the damage to both NdFeAs(O,F) and MgO substrate by excess F-diffusion along the grain boundary. To investigate the intrinsic nature of grain boundaries, we minimized the damage to NdFeAs(O,F) and MgO by reducing the deposition temperature of NdOF over-layer needed for F-doping. The resultant NdFeAs(O,F) bicrystal films have a critical angle of 8.5°, above which Jc starts to decrease exponentially. This critical angle is almost the same as those of other Fe-based superconductors.

The observed cosmological constant may originate as the minimum value U_{min} of a scalar field potential, where the scalar field is frozen due to a large mass. If this vacuum is metastable, it may decay to a true vacuum either at present or in the future. Assuming its decay rate Gamma is comparable to the Hubble expansion rate H_0, we estimate the scale of true vacuum bubbles and analyze their evolution. We find that their initial formation scale is sub-millimeter and their tension causes rapid collapse if m gtrsim 1.7 cdot 10^{-3}, eV. For smaller masses, the bubbles expand at the speed of light. We extend our analysis to scalar-tensor theories with non-minimal coupling, finding that the nucleation scale of gravitational constant bubbles remains consistent with the sub-millimeter regime of General Relativity. The critical mass scale remains around 10^{-3},eV. A theoretical estimate at redshift z_{obs} sim 0.01 suggests an observable bubble radius of sim 50 Mpc, implying a gravitational transition triggered sim 300 Myr ago, with a present-day size approaching 100 Mpc. Additionally, we explore mass ranges (m < 10^{-3},eV) and non-minimal coupling xi ranges (10^{-8},eV^{2-n} - 10^{-1},eV^{2-n}) that lead to a variation Delta G/G_N within the 1%-7% range. We assume non-minimal coupling of the form F(phi)=1/kappa - xi phi^n, with kappa=8pi G_N and 2 leq n leq 9. Finally, we review various local physics or/and transition based proposed solutions to the Hubble tension, including ultra-late-time transitional models (z sim 0.01), screened fifth-force mechanisms, and the Lambda_{rm s}CDM model, which features a transition at z sim 2. We discuss observational hints supporting these scenarios and the theoretical challenges they face.

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. In this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Class probabilities predicted by most multiclass classifiers are uncalibrated, often tending towards over-confidence. With neural networks, calibration can be improved by temperature scaling, a method to learn a single corrective multiplicative factor for inputs to the last softmax layer. On non-neural models the existing methods apply binary calibration in a pairwise or one-vs-rest fashion. We propose a natively multiclass calibration method applicable to classifiers from any model class, derived from Dirichlet distributions and generalising the beta calibration method from binary classification. It is easily implemented with neural nets since it is equivalent to log-transforming the uncalibrated probabilities, followed by one linear layer and softmax. Experiments demonstrate improved probabilistic predictions according to multiple measures (confidence-ECE, classwise-ECE, log-loss, Brier score) across a wide range of datasets and classifiers. Parameters of the learned Dirichlet calibration map provide insights to the biases in the uncalibrated model.