Daily Papers

The costs of training frontier AI models have grown dramatically in recent years, but there is limited public data on the magnitude and growth of these expenses. This paper develops a detailed cost model to address this gap, estimating training costs using three approaches that account for hardware, energy, cloud rental, and staff expenses. The analysis reveals that the amortized cost to train the most compute-intensive models has grown precipitously at a rate of 2.4x per year since 2016 (95% CI: 2.0x to 3.1x). For key frontier models, such as GPT-4 and Gemini, the most significant expenses are AI accelerator chips and staff costs, each costing tens of millions of dollars. Other notable costs include server components (15-22%), cluster-level interconnect (9-13%), and energy consumption (2-6%). If the trend of growing development costs continues, the largest training runs will cost more than a billion dollars by 2027, meaning that only the most well-funded organizations will be able to finance frontier AI models.

Test-time compute allocation in large reasoning models (LRMs) is widely used and has applications in mathematical problem solving, code synthesis, and planning. Recent work has addressed this problem by scaling self-consistency and parallel thinking, adding generic ``thinking tokens'' and prompting models to re-read the question before answering. Unfortunately, these approaches either inject task-agnostic tokens or mandate heuristics that do not explain -- and often ignore -- the spontaneous repetition that many LRMs exhibit at the head of their internal chains. In contrast, we analyze and harness the model's tendency to restate the question, which we term the Echo of Prompt (EOP), as a front-loaded, compute-shaping mechanism. We formalize its probabilistic cost by casting echo removal as rejection-based conditioning and defining the Echo Likelihood Gap ΔL as a computable proxy. This provides the missing theoretical link that links early repetition to likelihood gains and downstream accuracy. However, it does not by itself specify how to exploit EOP. Consequently, we develop Echo-Distilled SFT (ED-SFT) to instill an ``echo-then-reason'' pattern through supervised finetuning, and Echoic Prompting (EP) to re-ground the model mid-trace without training. While promising, quantifying benefits beyond verbosity is non-trivial. Therefore, we conduct length and suffix-controlled likelihood analyses together with layer-wise attention studies, showing that EOP increases answer to answer-prefix attention in middle layers, consistent with an attention refocusing mechanism. We evaluate on GSM8K, MathQA, Hendrycks-MATH, AIME24, and MATH-500 under identical decoding settings and budgets, and find consistent gains over baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/hhh2210/echoes-as-anchors.

Post-training is essential for adapting Large Language Models (LLMs) to real-world applications. Deploying post-trained models faces significant challenges due to substantial memory overhead and noticeable inference latency. Existing work has identified significant redundancies in LLMs and proposed efficient architectures, namely intra-layer KV sharing and cross-layer KV sharing. However, intra-layer KV sharing still results in high inference costs, while cross-layer KV sharing leads to significant performance degradation. As a result, both methods remain suboptimal for post-training pre-trained LLMs. In this paper, we identify that the Softmax operation is a primary bottleneck for LLM inference and discover that it is actually highly redundant during post-training. We propose Softmax Unification in Attention (UniAttn), a novel post-training method that unifies Softmax activations across transformer blocks to reduce LLM inference costs. Additionally, UniAttn adopts a linear projection to compensate for the errors induced by Softmax unification. Experiments show that UniAttn matches the performance of standard post-training while significantly reducing inference costs, outperforming existing efficient architectures during post-training. Our code will be available at https://github.com/Bostoncake/UniAttn.

Large language models (LLMs) have played a fundamental role in various natural language processing tasks with powerful prompt techniques. However, in real-world applications, there are often similar prompt components for repeated queries, which causes significant computational burdens during inference. Existing prompt compression and direct fine-tuning methods aim to tackle these challenges, yet they frequently struggle to strike an optimal balance between cost-efficiency and performance effectiveness, especially in complex tasks such as NL2Code. In this paper, we propose a novel method namely PromptIntern to internalize the prompt knowledge into model parameters via progressive fine-tuning. Our method enables LLMs to emulate the human learning process for a new task, where detailed templates and examples in a prompt are gradually internalized and phased out progressively as the model grows accustomed to the task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method reduces inference tokens over 90%, speedups inference by 4.2 times, and saves 88.3% monetary cost.

The world currently has an abundance of ideas for how to use new LLM agents, and developers seek to rapidly prototype and test new agentic designs. However, executing agents at scale using high-capacity LLMs incurs high inference costs. We propose a simple method for reducing LLM agent inference costs without incurring the development friction costs associated with LLM fine-tuning (long training cycles, optimization hyperparameter tweaking loops) or manual prompt engineering (laborious trial and error). Most importantly, we introduce in-context distillation, which adapts the idea of knowledge distillation (training a low cost-student model to mimic a high-cost teacher) to an in-context learning setting. Our approach retrieves relevant teacher demonstrations at each agent step and provides them to the student as in-context examples, enabling the student to imitate teacher behavior on-the-fly. We combine in-context distillation with the established idea of self-consistency cascades to know when the trust the student. This adaptive strategy realizes the cost benefits of model specialization while preserving the productivity of working with frozen models. On the multi-step embodied reasoning benchmark ALFWorld, our method matches teacher-level accuracy at 2.5\times lower cost, reducing per-episode costs from \0.059 to 0.024. The upfront demonstration cost amortizes after just 843 episodes, yielding cumulative savings exceeding \34,900 at deployment scale (1M episodes). On AppWorld, a complex agent benchmark requiring multi-step API workflows, we shift the Pareto frontier by achieving a 2times cost reduction$ at iso-accuracy. By reducing operational costs while maintaining rapid experimentation cycles with frozen models, our approach makes advanced agentic systems economically viable for a broader range of applications.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a practical and scalable approach to enhancing large language models in areas such as math, code, and other structured tasks. Two questions motivate this paper: how much of the reported gains survive under strictly parity-controlled evaluation, and whether RLVR is cost-free or exacts a measurable tax. We argue that progress is real, but gains are often overstated due to three forces - an RLVR tax, evaluation pitfalls, and data contamination. Using a partial-prompt contamination audit and matched-budget reproductions across base and RL models, we show that several headline gaps shrink or vanish under clean, parity-controlled evaluation. We then propose a tax-aware training and evaluation protocol that co-optimizes accuracy, grounding, and calibrated abstention and standardizes budgeting and provenance checks. Applied to recent RLVR setups, this protocol yields more reliable estimates of reasoning gains and, in several cases, revises prior conclusions. Our position is constructive: RLVR is valuable and industry-ready; we advocate keeping its practical benefits while prioritizing reliability, safety, and measurement.

The current reinforcement learning framework focuses exclusively on performance, often at the expense of efficiency. In contrast, biological control achieves remarkable performance while also optimizing computational energy expenditure and decision frequency. We propose a Decision Bounded Markov Decision Process (DB-MDP), that constrains the number of decisions and computational energy available to agents in reinforcement learning environments. Our experiments demonstrate that existing reinforcement learning algorithms struggle within this framework, leading to either failure or suboptimal performance. To address this, we introduce a biologically-inspired, Temporally Layered Architecture (TLA), enabling agents to manage computational costs through two layers with distinct time scales and energy requirements. TLA achieves optimal performance in decision-bounded environments and in continuous control environments, it matches state-of-the-art performance while utilizing a fraction of the compute cost. Compared to current reinforcement learning algorithms that solely prioritize performance, our approach significantly lowers computational energy expenditure while maintaining performance. These findings establish a benchmark and pave the way for future research on energy and time-aware control.

Recently proposed systems for open-domain question answering (OpenQA) require large amounts of training data to achieve state-of-the-art performance. However, data annotation is known to be time-consuming and therefore expensive to acquire. As a result, the appropriate datasets are available only for a handful of languages (mainly English and Chinese). In this work, we introduce and publicly release PolQA, the first Polish dataset for OpenQA. It consists of 7,000 questions, 87,525 manually labeled evidence passages, and a corpus of over 7,097,322 candidate passages. Each question is classified according to its formulation, type, as well as entity type of the answer. This resource allows us to evaluate the impact of different annotation choices on the performance of the QA system and propose an efficient annotation strategy that increases the passage retrieval performance by 10.55 p.p. while reducing the annotation cost by 82%.

Graph Edit Distance (GED) measures the (dis-)similarity between two given graphs, in terms of the minimum-cost edit sequence that transforms one graph to the other. However, the exact computation of GED is NP-Hard, which has recently motivated the design of neural methods for GED estimation. However, they do not explicitly account for edit operations with different costs. In response, we propose GRAPHEDX, a neural GED estimator that can work with general costs specified for the four edit operations, viz., edge deletion, edge addition, node deletion and node addition. We first present GED as a quadratic assignment problem (QAP) that incorporates these four costs. Then, we represent each graph as a set of node and edge embeddings and use them to design a family of neural set divergence surrogates. We replace the QAP terms corresponding to each operation with their surrogates. Computing such neural set divergence require aligning nodes and edges of the two graphs. We learn these alignments using a Gumbel-Sinkhorn permutation generator, additionally ensuring that the node and edge alignments are consistent with each other. Moreover, these alignments are cognizant of both the presence and absence of edges between node-pairs. Experiments on several datasets, under a variety of edit cost settings, show that GRAPHEDX consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods and heuristics in terms of prediction error.

Slot attention is a powerful method for object-centric modeling in images and videos. However, its set-equivariance limits its ability to handle videos with a dynamic number of objects because it cannot break ties. To overcome this limitation, we first establish a connection between slot attention and optimal transport. Based on this new perspective we propose MESH (Minimize Entropy of Sinkhorn): a cross-attention module that combines the tiebreaking properties of unregularized optimal transport with the speed of regularized optimal transport. We evaluate slot attention using MESH on multiple object-centric learning benchmarks and find significant improvements over slot attention in every setting.

Geometric methods for solving open-world off-road navigation tasks, by learning occupancy and metric maps, provide good generalization but can be brittle in outdoor environments that violate their assumptions (e.g., tall grass). Learning-based methods can directly learn collision-free behavior from raw observations, but are difficult to integrate with standard geometry-based pipelines. This creates an unfortunate conflict -- either use learning and lose out on well-understood geometric navigational components, or do not use it, in favor of extensively hand-tuned geometry-based cost maps. In this work, we reject this dichotomy by designing the learning and non-learning-based components in a way such that they can be effectively combined in a self-supervised manner. Both components contribute to a planning criterion: the learned component contributes predicted traversability as rewards, while the geometric component contributes obstacle cost information. We instantiate and comparatively evaluate our system in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution environments, showing that this approach inherits complementary gains from the learned and geometric components and significantly outperforms either of them. Videos of our results are hosted at https://sites.google.com/view/hybrid-imitative-planning

Pruning generates sparse networks by setting parameters to zero. In this work we improve one-shot pruning methods, applied before training, without adding any additional storage costs while preserving the sparse gradient computations. The main difference to pruning is that we do not sparsify the network's weights but learn just a few key parameters and keep the other ones fixed at their random initialized value. This mechanism is called freezing the parameters. Those frozen weights can be stored efficiently with a single 32bit random seed number. The parameters to be frozen are determined one-shot by a single for- and backward pass applied before training starts. We call the introduced method FreezeNet. In our experiments we show that FreezeNets achieve good results, especially for extreme freezing rates. Freezing weights preserves the gradient flow throughout the network and consequently, FreezeNets train better and have an increased capacity compared to their pruned counterparts. On the classification tasks MNIST and CIFAR-10/100 we outperform SNIP, in this setting the best reported one-shot pruning method, applied before training. On MNIST, FreezeNet achieves 99.2% performance of the baseline LeNet-5-Caffe architecture, while compressing the number of trained and stored parameters by a factor of x 157.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are typically trained in multiple stages, with video-based supervised fine-tuning (Video-SFT) serving as a key step for improving visual understanding. Yet its effect on the fine-grained evolution of visual capabilities, particularly the balance between spatial and temporal understanding, remains poorly understood. In this paper, we systematically study how Video-SFT reshapes visual capabilities in MLLMs. Across architectures, parameter scales, and frame sampling settings, we observe a consistent pattern: Video-SFT reliably improves video performance, but often yields limited gains or even degradation on static image benchmarks. We further show that this trade-off is closely tied to temporal budget: increasing the number of sampled frames generally improves video performance, but does not reliably improve static image performance. Motivated by this finding, we study an instruction-aware Hybrid-Frame strategy that adaptively allocates frame counts and partially mitigates the image-video trade-off. Our results indicate that Video-SFT is not a free lunch for MLLMs, and preserving spatial understanding remains a central challenge in joint image-video training.

Code-recommendation systems, such as Copilot and CodeWhisperer, have the potential to improve programmer productivity by suggesting and auto-completing code. However, to fully realize their potential, we must understand how programmers interact with these systems and identify ways to improve that interaction. To make progress, we studied GitHub Copilot, a code-recommendation system used by millions of programmers daily. We developed CUPS, a taxonomy of common programmer activities when interacting with Copilot. Our study of 21 programmers, who completed coding tasks and retrospectively labeled their sessions with CUPS, showed that CUPS can help us understand how programmers interact with code-recommendation systems, revealing inefficiencies and time costs. Our insights reveal how programmers interact with Copilot and motivate new interface designs and metrics.

We propose and evaluate a number of solutions to the problem of calculating the cost to serve each location in a single-vehicle transport setting. Such cost to serve analysis has application both strategically and operationally in transportation. The problem is formally given by the traveling salesperson game (TSG), a cooperative total utility game in which agents correspond to locations in a traveling salesperson problem (TSP). The cost to serve a location is an allocated portion of the cost of an optimal tour. The Shapley value is one of the most important normative division schemes in cooperative games, giving a principled and fair allocation both for the TSG and more generally. We consider a number of direct and sampling-based procedures for calculating the Shapley value, and present the first proof that approximating the Shapley value of the TSG within a constant factor is NP-hard. Treating the Shapley value as an ideal baseline allocation, we then develop six proxies for that value which are relatively easy to compute. We perform an experimental evaluation using Synthetic Euclidean games as well as games derived from real-world tours calculated for fast-moving consumer goods scenarios. Our experiments show that several computationally tractable allocation techniques correspond to good proxies for the Shapley value.

In this paper, we study the role of feedback in online learning with switching costs. It has been shown that the minimax regret is Theta(T^{2/3}) under bandit feedback and improves to Theta(T) under full-information feedback, where T is the length of the time horizon. However, it remains largely unknown how the amount and type of feedback generally impact regret. To this end, we first consider the setting of bandit learning with extra observations; that is, in addition to the typical bandit feedback, the learner can freely make a total of B_{ex} extra observations. We fully characterize the minimax regret in this setting, which exhibits an interesting phase-transition phenomenon: when B_{ex} = O(T^{2/3}), the regret remains Theta(T^{2/3}), but when B_{ex} = Omega(T^{2/3}), it becomes Theta(T/B_{mathrm{ex}}), which improves as the budget B_{ex} increases. To design algorithms that can achieve the minimax regret, it is instructive to consider a more general setting where the learner has a budget of B total observations. We fully characterize the minimax regret in this setting as well and show that it is Theta(T/B), which scales smoothly with the total budget B. Furthermore, we propose a generic algorithmic framework, which enables us to design different learning algorithms that can achieve matching upper bounds for both settings based on the amount and type of feedback. One interesting finding is that while bandit feedback can still guarantee optimal regret when the budget is relatively limited, it no longer suffices to achieve optimal regret when the budget is relatively large.

Depth-aware video panoptic segmentation is a promising approach to camera based scene understanding. However, the current state-of-the-art methods require costly video annotations and use a complex training pipeline compared to their image-based equivalents. In this paper, we present a new approach titled Unified Perception that achieves state-of-the-art performance without requiring video-based training. Our method employs a simple two-stage cascaded tracking algorithm that (re)uses object embeddings computed in an image-based network. Experimental results on the Cityscapes-DVPS dataset demonstrate that our method achieves an overall DVPQ of 57.1, surpassing state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, we show that our tracking strategies are effective for long-term object association on KITTI-STEP, achieving an STQ of 59.1 which exceeded the performance of state-of-the-art methods that employ the same backbone network. Code is available at: https://tue-mps.github.io/unipercept

In democracies, major policy decisions typically require some form of majority or consensus, so elites must secure mass support to govern. Historically, elites could shape support only through limited instruments like schooling and mass media; advances in AI-driven persuasion sharply reduce the cost and increase the precision of shaping public opinion, making the distribution of preferences itself an object of deliberate design. We develop a dynamic model in which elites choose how much to reshape the distribution of policy preferences, subject to persuasion costs and a majority rule constraint. With a single elite, any optimal intervention tends to push society toward more polarized opinion profiles - a ``polarization pull'' - and improvements in persuasion technology accelerate this drift. When two opposed elites alternate in power, the same technology also creates incentives to park society in ``semi-lock'' regions where opinions are more cohesive and harder for a rival to overturn, so advances in persuasion can either heighten or dampen polarization depending on the environment. Taken together, cheaper persuasion technologies recast polarization as a strategic instrument of governance rather than a purely emergent social byproduct, with important implications for democratic stability as AI capabilities advance.

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the GMADL loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the GMADL versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, GMADL solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, GMADL also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has led to architectures with billions to trillions of parameters, posing significant deployment challenges due to their substantial demands on memory, processing power, and energy consumption. Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) architectures have emerged as a solution, activating only a subset of parameters per token, thereby achieving faster inference while maintaining performance. However, SMoE models still face limitations in broader deployment due to their large parameter counts and significant GPU memory requirements. In this work, we introduce a gradient-free evolutionary strategy named EEP (Efficient Expert P}runing) to enhance the pruning of experts in SMoE models. EEP relies solely on model inference (i.e., no gradient computation) and achieves greater sparsity while maintaining or even improving performance on downstream tasks. EEP can be used to reduce both the total number of experts (thus saving GPU memory) and the number of active experts (thus accelerating inference). For example, we demonstrate that pruning up to 75% of experts in Mixtral 8times7B-Instruct results in a substantial reduction in parameters with minimal performance loss. Remarkably, we observe improved performance on certain tasks, such as a significant increase in accuracy on the SQuAD dataset (from 53.4% to 75.4%), when pruning half of the experts. With these results, EEP not only lowers the barrier to deploying SMoE models,but also challenges the conventional understanding of model pruning by showing that fewer experts can lead to better task-specific performance without any fine-tuning. Code is available at https://github.com/imagination-research/EEP.