Daily Papers

Cooperative perception enables autonomous agents to share encoded representations over wireless communication to enhance each other's live situational awareness. However, the tension between the limited communication bandwidth and the rich sensor information hinders its practical deployment. Recent studies have explored selection strategies that share only a subset of features per frame while striving to keep the performance on par. Nevertheless, the bandwidth requirement still stresses current wireless technologies. To fundamentally ease the tension, we take a proactive approach, exploiting the temporal continuity to identify features that capture environment dynamics, while avoiding repetitive and redundant transmission of static information. By incorporating temporal awareness, agents are empowered to dynamically adapt the sharing quantity according to environment complexity. We instantiate this intuition into an adaptive selection framework, COOPERTRIM, which introduces a novel conformal temporal uncertainty metric to gauge feature relevance, and a data-driven mechanism to dynamically determine the sharing quantity. To evaluate COOPERTRIM, we take semantic segmentation and 3D detection as example tasks. Across multiple open-source cooperative segmentation and detection models, COOPERTRIM achieves up to 80.28% and 72.52% bandwidth reduction respectively while maintaining a comparable accuracy. Relative to other selection strategies, COOPERTRIM also improves IoU by as much as 45.54% with up to 72% less bandwidth. Combined with compression strategies, COOPERTRIM can further reduce bandwidth usage to as low as 1.46% without compromising IoU performance. Qualitative results show COOPERTRIM gracefully adapts to environmental dynamics, localization error, and communication latency, demonstrating flexibility and paving the way for real-world deployment.

Uncertainty is almost ubiquitous in safety-critical autonomous systems due to dynamic environments and the integration of learning-based components. Quantifying this uncertainty--particularly for time-series predictions in multi-stage optimization--is essential for safe control and verification tasks. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification tool with rigorous finite-sample guarantees, but its performance relies on the design of the nonconformity measure, which remains challenging for time-series data. Existing methods either overfit on small datasets, or are computationally intensive on long-time-horizon problems and/or large datasets. To overcome these issues, we propose a new parameterization of the score functions and formulate an optimization program to compute the associated parameters. The optimal parameters directly lead to norm-ball regions that constitute minimal-average-radius conformal sets. We then provide a reformulation of the underlying optimization program to enable faster computation. We provide theoretical proofs on both the validity and efficiency of predictors constructed based on the proposed approach. Numerical results on various case studies demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of efficiency, with much lower computational requirements.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Stream networks, a unique class of spatiotemporal graphs, exhibit complex directional flow constraints and evolving dependencies, making uncertainty quantification a critical yet challenging task. Traditional conformal prediction methods struggle in this setting due to the need for joint predictions across multiple interdependent locations and the intricate spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in stream networks. Existing approaches either neglect dependencies, leading to overly conservative predictions, or rely solely on data-driven estimations, failing to capture the rich topological structure of the network. To address these challenges, we propose Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI), a novel framework that integrates network topology and temporal dynamics into the conformal prediction framework. STACI introduces a topology-aware nonconformity score that respects directional flow constraints and dynamically adjusts prediction sets to account for temporal distributional shifts. We provide theoretical guarantees on the validity of our approach and demonstrate its superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our results show that STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing conformal prediction methods for stream networks.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

Transformers have become a standard architecture in machine learning, demonstrating strong in-context learning (ICL) abilities that allow them to learn from the prompt at inference time. However, uncertainty quantification for ICL remains an open challenge, particularly in noisy regression tasks. This paper investigates whether ICL can be leveraged for distribution-free uncertainty estimation, proposing a method based on conformal prediction to construct prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. While traditional conformal methods are computationally expensive due to repeated model fitting, we exploit ICL to efficiently generate confidence intervals in a single forward pass. Our empirical analysis compares this approach against ridge regression-based conformal methods, showing that conformal prediction with in-context learning (CP with ICL) achieves robust and scalable uncertainty estimates. Additionally, we evaluate its performance under distribution shifts and establish scaling laws to guide model training. These findings bridge ICL and conformal prediction, providing a theoretically grounded and new framework for uncertainty quantification in transformer-based models.

Accurate sensor calibration is crucial for autonomous systems, yet its uncertainty quantification remains underexplored. We present the first approach to integrate uncertainty awareness into online extrinsic calibration, combining Monte Carlo Dropout with Conformal Prediction to generate prediction intervals with a guaranteed level of coverage. Our method proposes a framework to enhance existing calibration models with uncertainty quantification, compatible with various network architectures. Validated on KITTI (RGB Camera-LiDAR) and DSEC (Event Camera-LiDAR) datasets, we demonstrate effectiveness across different visual sensor types, measuring performance with adapted metrics to evaluate the efficiency and reliability of the intervals. By providing calibration parameters with quantifiable confidence measures, we offer insights into the reliability of calibration estimates, which can greatly improve the robustness of sensor fusion in dynamic environments and usefully serve the Computer Vision community.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to 4.36times, 5.46times, and 16.9times respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend conformal prediction to the federated learning setting. The main challenge we face is data heterogeneity across the clients - this violates the fundamental tenet of exchangeability required for conformal prediction. We propose a weaker notion of partial exchangeability, better suited to the FL setting, and use it to develop the Federated Conformal Prediction (FCP) framework. We show FCP enjoys rigorous theoretical guarantees and excellent empirical performance on several computer vision and medical imaging datasets. Our results demonstrate a practical approach to incorporating meaningful uncertainty quantification in distributed and heterogeneous environments. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/clu5/federated-conformal.

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

Temporal information is crucial for visual tracking, but existing multi-frame trackers are vulnerable to model drift caused by naively aggregating noisy historical predictions. In this paper, we introduce DTPTrack, a lightweight and generalizable module designed to be seamlessly integrated into existing trackers to suppress drift. Our framework consists of two core components: (1) a Temporal Reliability Calibrator (TRC) mechanism that learns to assign a per-frame reliability score to historical states, filtering out noise while anchoring on the ground-truth template; and (2) a Temporal Guidance Synthesizer (TGS) module that synthesizes this calibrated history into a compact set of dynamic temporal priors to provide predictive guidance. To demonstrate its versatility, we integrate DTPTrack into three diverse tracking architectures--OSTrack, ODTrack, and LoRAT-and show consistent, significant performance gains across all baselines. Our best-performing model, built upon an extended LoRATv2 backbone, sets a new state-of-the-art on several benchmarks, achieving a 77.5% Success rate on LaSOT and an 80.3% AO on GOT-10k.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

Without manually annotated identities, unsupervised multi-object trackers are inferior to learning reliable feature embeddings. It causes the similarity-based inter-frame association stage also be error-prone, where an uncertainty problem arises. The frame-by-frame accumulated uncertainty prevents trackers from learning the consistent feature embedding against time variation. To avoid this uncertainty problem, recent self-supervised techniques are adopted, whereas they failed to capture temporal relations. The interframe uncertainty still exists. In fact, this paper argues that though the uncertainty problem is inevitable, it is possible to leverage the uncertainty itself to improve the learned consistency in turn. Specifically, an uncertainty-based metric is developed to verify and rectify the risky associations. The resulting accurate pseudo-tracklets boost learning the feature consistency. And accurate tracklets can incorporate temporal information into spatial transformation. This paper proposes a tracklet-guided augmentation strategy to simulate tracklets' motion, which adopts a hierarchical uncertainty-based sampling mechanism for hard sample mining. The ultimate unsupervised MOT framework, namely U2MOT, is proven effective on MOT-Challenges and VisDrone-MOT benchmark. U2MOT achieves a SOTA performance among the published supervised and unsupervised trackers.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

Robust optimization safeguards decisions against uncertainty by optimizing against worst-case scenarios, yet their effectiveness hinges on a prespecified robustness level that is often chosen ad hoc, leading to either insufficient protection or overly conservative and costly solutions. Recent approaches using conformal prediction construct data-driven uncertainty sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but they still fix coverage targets a priori and offer little guidance for selecting robustness levels. We propose a new framework that provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on both miscoverage and regret for any family of robust predict-then-optimize policies. Our method constructs valid estimators that trace out the miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier, enabling decision-makers to reliably evaluate and calibrate robustness levels according to their cost-risk preferences. The framework is simple to implement, broadly applicable across classical optimization formulations, and achieves sharper finite-sample performance than existing approaches. These results offer the first principled data-driven methodology for guiding robustness selection and empower practitioners to balance robustness and conservativeness in high-stakes decision-making.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Missing instances in time series data impose a significant challenge to deep learning models, particularly in regression tasks. In the Earth Observation field, satellite failure or cloud occlusion frequently results in missing time-steps, introducing uncertainties in the predicted output and causing a decline in predictive performance. While many studies address missing time-steps through data augmentation to improve model robustness, the uncertainty arising at the input level is commonly overlooked. To address this gap, we introduce Monte Carlo Temporal Dropout (MC-TD), a method that explicitly accounts for input-level uncertainty by randomly dropping time-steps during inference using a predefined dropout ratio, thereby simulating the effect of missing data. To bypass the need for costly searches for the optimal dropout ratio, we extend this approach with Monte Carlo Concrete Temporal Dropout (MC-ConcTD), a method that learns the optimal dropout distribution directly. Both MC-TD and MC-ConcTD are applied during inference, leveraging Monte Carlo sampling for uncertainty quantification. Experiments on three EO time-series datasets demonstrate that MC-ConcTD improves predictive performance and uncertainty calibration compared to existing approaches. Additionally, we highlight the advantages of adaptive dropout tuning over manual selection, making uncertainty quantification more robust and accessible for EO applications.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

Existing Video Temporal Grounding (VTG) models excel in accuracy but often overlook open-world challenges posed by open-vocabulary queries and untrimmed videos. This leads to unreliable predictions for noisy, corrupted, and out-of-distribution data. Adapting VTG models to dynamically estimate uncertainties based on user input can address this issue. To this end, we introduce SRAM, a robust network module that benefits from a two-stage cross-modal alignment task. More importantly, it integrates Deep Evidential Regression (DER) to explicitly and thoroughly quantify uncertainty during training, thus allowing the model to say "I do not know" in scenarios beyond its handling capacity. However, the direct application of traditional DER theory and its regularizer reveals structural flaws, leading to unintended constraints in VTG tasks. In response, we develop a simple yet effective Geom-regularizer that enhances the uncertainty learning framework from the ground up. To the best of our knowledge, this marks the first successful attempt of DER in VTG. Our extensive quantitative and qualitative results affirm the effectiveness, robustness, and interpretability of our modules and the uncertainty learning paradigm in VTG tasks. The code will be made available.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for open-ended language generation remains a critical yet underexplored challenge, especially under black-box constraints where internal model signals are inaccessible. In this paper, we introduce Token-Entropy Conformal Prediction (TECP), a novel framework that leverages token-level entropy as a logit-free, reference-free uncertainty measure and integrates it into a split conformal prediction (CP) pipeline to construct prediction sets with formal coverage guarantees. Unlike existing approaches that rely on semantic consistency heuristics or white-box features, TECP directly estimates epistemic uncertainty from the token entropy structure of sampled generations and calibrates uncertainty thresholds via CP quantiles to ensure provable error control. Empirical evaluations across six large language models and two benchmarks (CoQA and TriviaQA) demonstrate that TECP consistently achieves reliable coverage and compact prediction sets, outperforming prior self-consistency-based UQ methods. Our method provides a principled and efficient solution for trustworthy generation in black-box LLM settings.

A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM probabilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.

Collaborative perception, fusing information from multiple agents, can extend perception range so as to improve perception performance. However, temporal asynchrony in real-world environments, caused by communication delays, clock misalignment, or sampling configuration differences, can lead to information mismatches. If this is not well handled, then the collaborative performance is patchy, and what's worse safety accidents may occur. To tackle this challenge, we propose CoDynTrust, an uncertainty-encoded asynchronous fusion perception framework that is robust to the information mismatches caused by temporal asynchrony. CoDynTrust generates dynamic feature trust modulus (DFTM) for each region of interest by modeling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty as well as selectively suppressing or retaining single-vehicle features, thereby mitigating information mismatches. We then design a multi-scale fusion module to handle multi-scale feature maps processed by DFTM. Compared to existing works that also consider asynchronous collaborative perception, CoDynTrust combats various low-quality information in temporally asynchronous scenarios and allows uncertainty to be propagated to downstream tasks such as planning and control. Experimental results demonstrate that CoDynTrust significantly reduces performance degradation caused by temporal asynchrony across multiple datasets, achieving state-of-the-art detection performance even with temporal asynchrony. The code is available at https://github.com/CrazyShout/CoDynTrust.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

The two-stage object pose estimation paradigm first detects semantic keypoints on the image and then estimates the 6D pose by minimizing reprojection errors. Despite performing well on standard benchmarks, existing techniques offer no provable guarantees on the quality and uncertainty of the estimation. In this paper, we inject two fundamental changes, namely conformal keypoint detection and geometric uncertainty propagation, into the two-stage paradigm and propose the first pose estimator that endows an estimation with provable and computable worst-case error bounds. On one hand, conformal keypoint detection applies the statistical machinery of inductive conformal prediction to convert heuristic keypoint detections into circular or elliptical prediction sets that cover the groundtruth keypoints with a user-specified marginal probability (e.g., 90%). Geometric uncertainty propagation, on the other, propagates the geometric constraints on the keypoints to the 6D object pose, leading to a Pose UnceRtainty SEt (PURSE) that guarantees coverage of the groundtruth pose with the same probability. The PURSE, however, is a nonconvex set that does not directly lead to estimated poses and uncertainties. Therefore, we develop RANdom SAmple averaGing (RANSAG) to compute an average pose and apply semidefinite relaxation to upper bound the worst-case errors between the average pose and the groundtruth. On the LineMOD Occlusion dataset we demonstrate: (i) the PURSE covers the groundtruth with valid probabilities; (ii) the worst-case error bounds provide correct uncertainty quantification; and (iii) the average pose achieves better or similar accuracy as representative methods based on sparse keypoints.

Trainable evaluation metrics for machine translation (MT) exhibit strong correlation with human judgements, but they are often hard to interpret and might produce unreliable scores under noisy or out-of-domain data. Recent work has attempted to mitigate this with simple uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles), however these techniques (as we show) are limited in several ways -- for example, they are unable to distinguish between different kinds of uncertainty, and they are time and memory consuming. In this paper, we propose more powerful and efficient uncertainty predictors for MT evaluation, and we assess their ability to target different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To this end, we develop and compare training objectives for the COMET metric to enhance it with an uncertainty prediction output, including heteroscedastic regression, divergence minimization, and direct uncertainty prediction. Our experiments show improved results on uncertainty prediction for the WMT metrics task datasets, with a substantial reduction in computational costs. Moreover, they demonstrate the ability of these predictors to address specific uncertainty causes in MT evaluation, such as low quality references and out-of-domain data.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Diffusion models achieve great success in generating diverse and high-fidelity images. The performance improvements come with low generation speed per image, which hinders the application diffusion models in real-time scenarios. While some certain predictions benefit from the full computation of the model in each sample iteration, not every iteration requires the same amount of computation, potentially leading to computation waste. In this work, we propose DeeDiff, an early exiting framework that adaptively allocates computation resources in each sampling step to improve the generation efficiency of diffusion models. Specifically, we introduce a timestep-aware uncertainty estimation module (UEM) for diffusion models which is attached to each intermediate layer to estimate the prediction uncertainty of each layer. The uncertainty is regarded as the signal to decide if the inference terminates. Moreover, we propose uncertainty-aware layer-wise loss to fill the performance gap between full models and early-exited models. With such loss strategy, our model is able to obtain comparable results as full-layer models. Extensive experiments of class-conditional, unconditional, and text-guided generation on several datasets show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance and efficiency trade-off compared with existing early exiting methods on diffusion models. More importantly, our method even brings extra benefits to baseline models and obtains better performance on CIFAR-10 and Celeb-A datasets. Full code and model are released for reproduction.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) fine-tunes pre-trained deep neural networks for unseen test data. The primary challenge of TTA is limited access to the entire test dataset during online updates, causing error accumulation. To mitigate it, TTA methods have utilized the model output's entropy as a confidence metric that aims to determine which samples have a lower likelihood of causing error. Through experimental studies, however, we observed the unreliability of entropy as a confidence metric for TTA under biased scenarios and theoretically revealed that it stems from the neglect of the influence of latent disentangled factors of data on predictions. Building upon these findings, we introduce a novel TTA method named Destroy Your Object (DeYO), which leverages a newly proposed confidence metric named Pseudo-Label Probability Difference (PLPD). PLPD quantifies the influence of the shape of an object on prediction by measuring the difference between predictions before and after applying an object-destructive transformation. DeYO consists of sample selection and sample weighting, which employ entropy and PLPD concurrently. For robust adaptation, DeYO prioritizes samples that dominantly incorporate shape information when making predictions. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the consistent superiority of DeYO over baseline methods across various scenarios, including biased and wild. Project page is publicly available at https://whitesnowdrop.github.io/DeYO/.

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its deployment in many applications. This work presents the first framework to analyze the uncertainty by offering a prediction interval of LLM-based scoring via conformal prediction. Conformal prediction constructs continuous prediction intervals from a single evaluation run, and we design an ordinal boundary adjustment for discrete rating tasks. We also suggest a midpoint-based score within the interval as a low-bias alternative to raw model score and weighted average. We perform extensive experiments and analysis, which show that conformal prediction can provide valid prediction interval with coverage guarantees. We also explore the usefulness of interval midpoint and judge reprompting for better judgment.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Evaluating anomaly detection algorithms in time series data is critical as inaccuracies can lead to flawed decision-making in various domains where real-time analytics and data-driven strategies are essential. Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies, such as early and delayed detections. We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals. PATE uses proximity-based weighting considering buffer zones around anomaly intervals, enabling a more detailed and informed assessment of a detection. Using these weights, PATE computes a weighted version of the area under the Precision and Recall curve. Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations than other evaluation metrics. We also tested several state-of-the-art anomaly detectors across various benchmark datasets using the PATE evaluation scheme. The results show that a common metric like Point-Adjusted F1 Score fails to characterize the detection performances well, and that PATE is able to provide a more fair model comparison. By introducing PATE, we redefine the understanding of model efficacy that steers future studies toward developing more effective and accurate detection models.

Accurate monocular 3D object detection (M3OD) is pivotal for safety-critical applications like autonomous driving, yet its reliability deteriorates significantly under real-world domain shifts caused by environmental or sensor variations. To address these shifts, Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) methods have emerged, enabling models to adapt to target distributions during inference. While prior TTA approaches recognize the positive correlation between low uncertainty and high generalization ability, they fail to address the dual uncertainty inherent to M3OD: semantic uncertainty (ambiguous class predictions) and geometric uncertainty (unstable spatial localization). To bridge this gap, we propose Dual Uncertainty Optimization (DUO), the first TTA framework designed to jointly minimize both uncertainties for robust M3OD. Through a convex optimization lens, we introduce an innovative convex structure of the focal loss and further derive a novel unsupervised version, enabling label-agnostic uncertainty weighting and balanced learning for high-uncertainty objects. In parallel, we design a semantic-aware normal field constraint that preserves geometric coherence in regions with clear semantic cues, reducing uncertainty from the unstable 3D representation. This dual-branch mechanism forms a complementary loop: enhanced spatial perception improves semantic classification, and robust semantic predictions further refine spatial understanding. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of DUO over existing methods across various datasets and domain shift types.

Video diffusion models lack explicit geometric supervision during training, leading to inconsistency artifacts such as object deformation, spatial drift, and depth violations in generated videos. To address this limitation, we propose a geometry-based reward model that leverages pretrained geometric foundation models to evaluate multi-view consistency through cross-frame reprojection error. Unlike previous geometric metrics that measure inconsistency in pixel space, where pixel intensity may introduce additional noise, our approach conducts error computation in a pointwise fashion, yielding a more physically grounded and robust error metric. Furthermore, we introduce a geometry-aware sampling strategy that filters out low-texture and non-semantic regions, focusing evaluation on geometrically meaningful areas with reliable correspondences to improve robustness. We apply this reward model to align video diffusion models through two complementary pathways: post-training of a bidirectional model via SFT or Reinforcement Learning and inference-time optimization of a Causal Video Model (e.g., Streaming video generator) via test-time scaling with our reward as a path verifier. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of our design, demonstrating that our geometry-based reward provides superior robustness compared to other variants. By enabling efficient inference-time scaling, our method offers a practical solution for enhancing open-source video models without requiring extensive computational resources for retraining.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Significant advancements have been made in video generative models recently. Unlike image generation, video generation presents greater challenges, requiring not only generating high-quality frames but also ensuring temporal consistency across these frames. Despite the impressive progress, research on metrics for evaluating the quality of generated videos, especially concerning temporal and motion consistency, remains underexplored. To bridge this research gap, we propose Fr\'echet Video Motion Distance (FVMD) metric, which focuses on evaluating motion consistency in video generation. Specifically, we design explicit motion features based on key point tracking, and then measure the similarity between these features via the Fr\'echet distance. We conduct sensitivity analysis by injecting noise into real videos to verify the effectiveness of FVMD. Further, we carry out a large-scale human study, demonstrating that our metric effectively detects temporal noise and aligns better with human perceptions of generated video quality than existing metrics. Additionally, our motion features can consistently improve the performance of Video Quality Assessment (VQA) models, indicating that our approach is also applicable to unary video quality evaluation. Code is available at https://github.com/ljh0v0/FMD-frechet-motion-distance.

Understanding accurate atomic temporal event is essential for video comprehension. However, current video-language benchmarks often fall short to evaluate Large Multi-modal Models' (LMMs) temporal event understanding capabilities, as they can be effectively addressed using image-language models. In this paper, we introduce RTime-QA, a novel benchmark specifically designed to assess the atomic temporal event understanding ability of LMMs. RTime-QA comprises 822 high-quality, carefully-curated video-text questions, each meticulously annotated by human experts. Each question features a video depicting an atomic temporal event, paired with both correct answers and temporal negative descriptions, specifically designed to evaluate temporal understanding. To advance LMMs' temporal event understanding ability, we further introduce RTime-IT, a 14k instruction-tuning dataset that employs a similar annotation process as RTime-QA. Extensive experimental analysis demonstrates that RTime-QA presents a significant challenge for LMMs: the state-of-the-art model Qwen2-VL achieves only 34.6 on strict-ACC metric, substantially lagging behind human performance. Furthermore, our experiments reveal that RTime-IT effectively enhance LMMs' capacity in temporal understanding. By fine-tuning on RTime-IT, our Qwen2-VL achieves 65.9 on RTime-QA.

Recent advances in generative video models have led to significant breakthroughs in high-fidelity video synthesis, specifically in controllable video generation where the generated video is conditioned on text and action inputs, e.g., in instruction-guided video editing and world modeling in robotics. Despite these exceptional capabilities, controllable video models often hallucinate - generating future video frames that are misaligned with physical reality - which raises serious concerns in many tasks such as robot policy evaluation and planning. However, state-of-the-art video models lack the ability to assess and express their confidence, impeding hallucination mitigation. To rigorously address this challenge, we propose C3, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for training continuous-scale calibrated controllable video models for dense confidence estimation at the subpatch level, precisely localizing the uncertainty in each generated video frame. Our UQ method introduces three core innovations to empower video models to estimate their uncertainty. First, our method develops a novel framework that trains video models for correctness and calibration via strictly proper scoring rules. Second, we estimate the video model's uncertainty in latent space, avoiding training instability and prohibitive training costs associated with pixel-space approaches. Third, we map the dense latent-space uncertainty to interpretable pixel-level uncertainty in the RGB space for intuitive visualization, providing high-resolution uncertainty heatmaps that identify untrustworthy regions. Through extensive experiments on large-scale robot learning datasets (Bridge and DROID) and real-world evaluations, we demonstrate that our method not only provides calibrated uncertainty estimates within the training distribution, but also enables effective out-of-distribution detection.

Modeling dynamic 3D environments from LiDAR sequences is central to building reliable 4D worlds for autonomous driving and embodied AI. Existing generative frameworks, however, often treat all spatial regions uniformly, overlooking the varying uncertainty across real-world scenes. This uniform generation leads to artifacts in complex or ambiguous regions, limiting realism and temporal stability. In this work, we present U4D, an uncertainty-aware framework for 4D LiDAR world modeling. Our approach first estimates spatial uncertainty maps from a pretrained segmentation model to localize semantically challenging regions. It then performs generation in a "hard-to-easy" manner through two sequential stages: (1) uncertainty-region modeling, which reconstructs high-entropy regions with fine geometric fidelity, and (2) uncertainty-conditioned completion, which synthesizes the remaining areas under learned structural priors. To further ensure temporal coherence, U4D incorporates a mixture of spatio-temporal (MoST) block that adaptively fuses spatial and temporal representations during diffusion. Extensive experiments show that U4D produces geometrically faithful and temporally consistent LiDAR sequences, advancing the reliability of 4D world modeling for autonomous perception and simulation.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and test data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any test sample. Although recent TTA has shown promising performance, we still face two key challenges: 1) prior methods perform backpropagation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable optimization costs to many applications; 2) while existing TTA can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as forgetting). To this end, we have proposed an Efficient Anti-Forgetting Test-Time Adaptation (EATA) method which develops an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples for test-time entropy minimization. To alleviate forgetting, EATA introduces a Fisher regularizer estimated from test samples to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes. However, in EATA, the adopted entropy loss consistently assigns higher confidence to predictions even for samples that are underlying uncertain, leading to overconfident predictions. To tackle this, we further propose EATA with Calibration (EATA-C) to separately exploit the reducible model uncertainty and the inherent data uncertainty for calibrated TTA. Specifically, we measure the model uncertainty by the divergence between predictions from the full network and its sub-networks, on which we propose a divergence loss to encourage consistent predictions instead of overconfident ones. To further recalibrate prediction confidence, we utilize the disagreement among predicted labels as an indicator of the data uncertainty, and then devise a min-max entropy regularizer to selectively increase and decrease prediction confidence for different samples. Experiments on image classification and semantic segmentation verify the effectiveness of our methods.

Generative video models demonstrate impressive text-to-video capabilities, spurring widespread adoption in many real-world applications. However, like large language models (LLMs), video generation models tend to hallucinate, producing plausible videos even when they are factually wrong. Although uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs has been extensively studied in prior work, no UQ method for video models exists, raising critical safety concerns. To our knowledge, this paper represents the first work towards quantifying the uncertainty of video models. We present a framework for uncertainty quantification of generative video models, consisting of: (i) a metric for evaluating the calibration of video models based on robust rank correlation estimation with no stringent modeling assumptions; (ii) a black-box UQ method for video models (termed S-QUBED), which leverages latent modeling to rigorously decompose predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic components; and (iii) a UQ dataset to facilitate benchmarking calibration in video models. By conditioning the generation task in the latent space, we disentangle uncertainty arising due to vague task specifications from that arising from lack of knowledge. Through extensive experiments on benchmark video datasets, we demonstrate that S-QUBED computes calibrated total uncertainty estimates that are negatively correlated with the task accuracy and effectively computes the aleatoric and epistemic constituents.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

Template-based segmentation, a widely used paradigm in medical imaging, propagates anatomical labels via deformable registration from a labeled atlas to a target image, and is often used to compute volumetric biomarkers for downstream decision-making. While conformal prediction (CP) provides finite-sample valid intervals for scalar metrics, existing segmentation-based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches either rely on learned model features, often unavailable in classic template-based pipelines, or treat the registration process as a black box, resulting in overly conservative intervals when applied directly in output space. We introduce ConVOLT, a CP framework that achieves efficient volumetric UQ by conditioning calibration on properties of the estimated deformation field from template-based segmentation. ConVOLT calibrates a learned volumetric scaling factor from deformation space features. We evaluate ConVOLT on template-based segmentation tasks involving global, regional, and label volumetry across multiple datasets and registration methods. ConVOLT achieves target coverage while producing substantially tighter intervals than output-space conformal baselines. Our work paves way to exploit the registration process for efficient UQ in medical imaging pipelines.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

Foundation models for segmentation such as the Segment Anything Model (SAM) family exhibit strong zero-shot performance, but remain vulnerable in shifted or limited-knowledge domains. This work investigates whether uncertainty quantification can mitigate such challenges and enhance model generalisability in a domain-agnostic manner. To this end, we (1) curate UncertSAM, a benchmark comprising eight datasets designed to stress-test SAM under challenging segmentation conditions including shadows, transparency, and camouflage; (2) evaluate a suite of lightweight, post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods; and (3) assess a preliminary uncertainty-guided prediction refinement step. Among evaluated approaches, a last-layer Laplace approximation yields uncertainty estimates that correlate well with segmentation errors, indicating a meaningful signal. While refinement benefits are preliminary, our findings underscore the potential of incorporating uncertainty into segmentation models to support robust, domain-agnostic performance. Our benchmark and code are made publicly available.

Recent work has sought to quantify large language model uncertainty to facilitate model control and modulate user trust. Previous works focus on measures of uncertainty that are theoretically grounded or reflect the average overt behavior of the model. In this work, we investigate a variety of uncertainty measures, in order to identify measures that correlate with human group-level uncertainty. We find that Bayesian measures and a variation on entropy measures, top-k entropy, tend to agree with human behavior as a function of model size. We find that some strong measures decrease in human-similarity with model size, but, by multiple linear regression, we find that combining multiple uncertainty measures provide comparable human-alignment with reduced size-dependency.

Temporal question answering is an established method for evaluating temporal reasoning in large language models. Expected answers are often numeric (e.g., dates or durations), yet model responses are evaluated like regular text with exact match (EM), unable to distinguish small from large errors. In this investigative work, we frame temporal question answering as a numerical estimation task to assess the shortcomings of EM. We introduce TempAnswerQA, a benchmark distilled from Test of Time and TempTabQA, where all questions require a numerical, temporal answer, allowing us to evaluate models beyond EM. We use the forecasting metrics symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). With sMAPE, we find that error size and EM are decoupled. Models with low EM still have low sMAPE (both ~20%), and some models have high sMAPE despite high EM. Scaling errors by the deviation of the ground truth data with MASE reshuffles model rankings compared to EM, revealing gaps in models' understanding of temporal domain knowledge, especially when trained with synthetic data. Lastly, the models' most frequent error is to deviate by only pm1 from the ground truth. sMAPE and MASE, unlike EM, adequately weight these errors. Our findings underscore the need for specialised metrics for temporal QA tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/aauss/temporal-answer-qa.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

The prior drift is crucial in Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) methods that only use unlabeled test data, as it can cause significant error propagation. In this paper, we introduce VCoTTA, a variational Bayesian approach to measure uncertainties in CTTA. At the source stage, we transform a pre-trained deterministic model into a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) via a variational warm-up strategy, injecting uncertainties into the model. During the testing time, we employ a mean-teacher update strategy using variational inference for the student model and exponential moving average for the teacher model. Our novel approach updates the student model by combining priors from both the source and teacher models. The evidence lower bound is formulated as the cross-entropy between the student and teacher models, along with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the prior mixture. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the method's effectiveness in mitigating prior drift within the CTTA framework.

In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

Recent advances in multimodal time series learning underscore a paradigm shift from analytics centered on basic patterns toward advanced time series understanding and reasoning. However, existing multimodal time series datasets mostly remain at the level of surface alignment and question answering, without reaching the depth of genuine reasoning. The absence of well-defined tasks that genuinely require time series reasoning, along with the scarcity of high-quality data, has limited progress in building practical time series reasoning models (TSRMs). To this end, we introduce Time Series Reasoning Suite (TSR-Suite), which formalizes four atomic tasks that span three fundamental capabilities for reasoning with time series: (1) perception, acquired through scenario understanding and causality discovery; (2) extrapolation, realized via event-aware forecasting; and (3) decision-making, developed through deliberation over perception and extrapolation. TSR-Suite is the first comprehensive time series reasoning suite that supports not only thorough evaluation but also the data pipeline and training of TSRMs. It contains more than 23K samples, of which 2.3K are carefully curated through a human-guided hierarchical annotation process. Building on this foundation, we introduce TimeOmni-1, the first unified reasoning model designed to address diverse real-world problems demanding time series reasoning. The model is trained in multiple stages, integrating a mixture of task scenarios, novel reward functions, and tailored optimizations. Experiments show that TimeOmni-1 delivers strong out-of-distribution generalization across all tasks and achieves a high rate of valid responses. It significantly improves causality discovery accuracy (64.0% vs. 35.9% with GPT-4.1) and raises the valid response rate by over 6% compared to GPT-4.1 on the event-aware forecasting task.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

In question-answering tasks, determining when to trust the outputs is crucial to the alignment of large language models (LLMs). Kuhn et al. (2023) introduces semantic entropy as a measure of uncertainty, by incorporating linguistic invariances from the same meaning. It primarily relies on setting threshold to measure the level of semantic equivalence relation. We propose a more nuanced framework that extends beyond such thresholding by developing a Shapley-based uncertainty metric that captures the continuous nature of semantic relationships. We establish three fundamental properties that characterize valid uncertainty metrics and prove that our Shapley uncertainty satisfies these criteria. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our Shapley uncertainty more accurately predicts LLM performance in question-answering and other datasets, compared to similar baseline measures.

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. In this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

Reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty is crucial for machine learning applications, particularly in high-stakes scenarios where hedging against risks is essential. Despite its significance, there is no universal agreement on how to best quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we revisit core concepts to propose a framework for information-theoretic measures of predictive uncertainty. Our proposed framework categorizes predictive uncertainty measures according to two factors: (I) The predicting model (II) The approximation of the true predictive distribution. Examining all possible combinations of these two factors, we derive a set of predictive uncertainty measures that includes both known and newly introduced ones. We extensively evaluate these measures across a broad set of tasks, identifying conditions under which certain measures excel. Our findings show the importance of aligning the choice of uncertainty measure with the predicting model on in-distribution (ID) data, the limitations of epistemic uncertainty measures for out-of-distribution (OOD) data, and that the disentanglement between measures varies substantially between ID and OOD data. Together, these insights provide a more comprehensive understanding of predictive uncertainty measures, revealing their implicit assumptions and relationships.

Geo-temporal understanding, the ability to infer location, time, and contextual properties from visual input alone, underpins applications such as disaster management, traffic planning, embodied navigation, world modeling, and geography education. Although recent vision-language models (VLMs) have advanced image geo-localization using cues like landmarks and road signs, their ability to reason about temporal signals and physically grounded spatial cues remains limited. To address this gap, we introduce TimeSpot, a benchmark for evaluating real-world geo-temporal reasoning in VLMs. TimeSpot comprises 1,455 ground-level images from 80 countries and requires structured prediction of temporal attributes (season, month, time of day, daylight phase) and geographic attributes (continent, country, climate zone, environment type, latitude-longitude) directly from visual evidence. It also includes spatial-temporal reasoning tasks that test physical plausibility under real-world uncertainty. Evaluations of state-of-the-art open- and closed-source VLMs show low performance, particularly for temporal inference. While supervised fine-tuning yields improvements, results remain insufficient, highlighting the need for new methods to achieve robust, physically grounded geo-temporal understanding. TimeSpot is available at: https://TimeSpot-GT.github.io.

While recent generative video models have achieved remarkable visual realism and are being explored as world models, true physical simulation requires mastering both space and time. Current models can produce visually smooth kinematics, yet they lack a reliable internal motion pulse to ground these motions in a consistent, real-world time scale. This temporal ambiguity stems from the common practice of indiscriminately training on videos with vastly different real-world speeds, forcing them into standardized frame rates. This leads to what we term chronometric hallucination: generated sequences exhibit ambiguous, unstable, and uncontrollable physical motion speeds. To address this, we propose Visual Chronometer, a predictor that recovers the Physical Frames Per Second (PhyFPS) directly from the visual dynamics of an input video. Trained via controlled temporal resampling, our method estimates the true temporal scale implied by the motion itself, bypassing unreliable metadata. To systematically quantify this issue, we establish two benchmarks, PhyFPS-Bench-Real and PhyFPS-Bench-Gen. Our evaluations reveal a harsh reality: state-of-the-art video generators suffer from severe PhyFPS misalignment and temporal instability. Finally, we demonstrate that applying PhyFPS corrections significantly improves the human-perceived naturalness of AI-generated videos. Our project page is https://xiangbogaobarry.github.io/Visual_Chronometer/.

We introduce the Information-Estimation Metric (IEM), a novel form of distance function derived from an underlying continuous probability density over a domain of signals. The IEM is rooted in a fundamental relationship between information theory and estimation theory, which links the log-probability of a signal with the errors of an optimal denoiser, applied to noisy observations of the signal. In particular, the IEM between a pair of signals is obtained by comparing their denoising error vectors over a range of noise amplitudes. Geometrically, this amounts to comparing the score vector fields of the blurred density around the signals over a range of blur levels. We prove that the IEM is a valid global distance metric and derive a closed-form expression for its local second-order approximation, which yields a Riemannian metric. For Gaussian-distributed signals, the IEM coincides with the Mahalanobis distance. But for more complex distributions, it adapts, both locally and globally, to the geometry of the distribution. In practice, the IEM can be computed using a learned denoiser (analogous to generative diffusion models) and solving a one-dimensional integral. To demonstrate the value of our framework, we learn an IEM on the ImageNet database. Experiments show that this IEM is competitive with or outperforms state-of-the-art supervised image quality metrics in predicting human perceptual judgments.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Verification is crucial for effective mathematical reasoning. We present a new temporal consistency method where verifiers iteratively refine their judgments based on the previous assessment. Unlike one-round verification or multi-model debate approaches, our method leverages consistency in a sequence of self-reflection actions to improve verification accuracy. Empirical evaluations across diverse mathematical process error identification benchmarks (Mathcheck, ProcessBench, and PRM800K) show consistent performance improvements over baseline methods. When applied to the recent DeepSeek R1 distilled models, our method demonstrates strong performance, enabling 7B/8B distilled models to outperform all 70B/72B models and GPT-4o on ProcessBench. Notably, the distilled 14B model with our method achieves performance comparable to Deepseek-R1. Our codes are available at https://github.com/jcguo123/Temporal-Consistency

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for the safe clinical deployment of medical image segmentation systems, enabling the identification of unreliable predictions and supporting human oversight. While prior work has largely focused on pixel-level uncertainty, landmark-based segmentation offers inherent topological guarantees yet remains underexplored from an uncertainty perspective. In this work, we study uncertainty estimation for anatomical landmark-based segmentation on chest X-rays. Inspired by hybrid neural network architectures that combine standard image convolutional encoders with graph-based generative decoders, and leveraging their variational latent space, we derive two complementary measures: (i) latent uncertainty, captured directly from the learned distribution parameters, and (ii) predictive uncertainty, obtained by generating multiple stochastic output predictions from latent samples. Through controlled corruption experiments we show that both uncertainty measures increase with perturbation severity, reflecting both global and local degradation. We demonstrate that these uncertainty signals can identify unreliable predictions by comparing with manual ground-truth, and support out-of-distribution detection on the CheXmask dataset. More importantly, we release CheXmask-U (huggingface.co/datasets/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U), a large scale dataset of 657,566 chest X-ray landmark segmentations with per-node uncertainty estimates, enabling researchers to account for spatial variations in segmentation quality when using these anatomical masks. Our findings establish uncertainty estimation as a promising direction to enhance robustness and safe deployment of landmark-based anatomical segmentation methods in chest X-ray. A fully working interactive demo of the method is available at huggingface.co/spaces/matiasky/CheXmask-U and the source code at github.com/mcosarinsky/CheXmask-U.

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

Both zero-shot and tuning-based customized text-to-image (CT2I) generation have made significant progress for storytelling content creation. In contrast, research on customized text-to-video (CT2V) generation remains relatively limited. Existing zero-shot CT2V methods suffer from poor generalization, while another line of work directly combining tuning-based T2I models with temporal motion modules often leads to the loss of structural and texture information. To bridge this gap, we propose an autoregressive structure and texture propagation module (STPM), which extracts key structural and texture features from the reference subject and injects them autoregressively into each video frame to enhance consistency. Additionally, we introduce a test-time reward optimization (TTRO) method to further refine fine-grained details. Quantitative and qualitative experiments validate the effectiveness of STPM and TTRO, demonstrating improvements of 7.8 and 13.1 in CLIP-I and DINO consistency metrics over the baseline, respectively.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) frameworks enable large language models (LLMs) to retrieve relevant information from a knowledge base and incorporate it into the context for generating responses. This mitigates hallucinations and allows for the updating of knowledge without retraining the LLM. However, RAG does not guarantee valid responses if retrieval fails to identify the necessary information as the context for response generation. Also, if there is contradictory content, the RAG response will likely reflect only one of the two possible responses. Therefore, quantifying uncertainty in the retrieval process is crucial for ensuring RAG trustworthiness. In this report, we introduce a four-step framework for applying conformal prediction to quantify retrieval uncertainty in RAG frameworks. First, a calibration set of questions answerable from the knowledge base is constructed. Each question's embedding is compared against document embeddings to identify the most relevant document chunks containing the answer and record their similarity scores. Given a user-specified error rate ({\alpha}), these similarity scores are then analyzed to determine a similarity score cutoff threshold. During inference, all chunks with similarity exceeding this threshold are retrieved to provide context to the LLM, ensuring the true answer is captured in the context with a (1-{\alpha}) confidence level. We provide a Python package that enables users to implement the entire workflow proposed in our work, only using LLMs and without human intervention.

Dynamic Retrieval-Augmented Generation adaptively determines when to retrieve during generation to mitigate hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). However, existing methods rely on model-internal signals (e.g., logits, entropy), which are fundamentally unreliable because LLMs are typically ill-calibrated and often exhibit high confidence in erroneous outputs. We propose QuCo-RAG, which shifts from subjective confidence to objective statistics computed from pre-training data. Our method quantifies uncertainty through two stages: (1) before generation, we identify low-frequency entities indicating long-tail knowledge gaps; (2) during generation, we verify entity co-occurrence in the pre-training corpus, where zero co-occurrence often signals hallucination risk. Both stages leverage Infini-gram for millisecond-latency queries over 4 trillion tokens, triggering retrieval when uncertainty is high. Experiments on multi-hop QA benchmarks show QuCo-RAG achieves EM gains of 5--12 points over state-of-the-art baselines with OLMo-2 models, and transfers effectively to models with undisclosed pre-training data (Llama, Qwen, GPT), improving EM by up to 14 points. Domain generalization on biomedical QA further validates the robustness of our paradigm. These results establish corpus-grounded verification as a principled, practically model-agnostic paradigm for dynamic RAG. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZhishanQ/QuCo-RAG.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success as generative models. However, even a well-trained model can accumulate errors throughout the generation process. These errors become particularly problematic when arbitrary guidance is applied to steer samples toward desired properties, which often breaks sample fidelity. In this paper, we propose a general solution to address the off-manifold phenomenon observed in diffusion models. Our approach leverages a time predictor to estimate deviations from the desired data manifold at each timestep, identifying that a larger time gap is associated with reduced generation quality. We then design a novel guidance mechanism, `Temporal Alignment Guidance' (TAG), attracting the samples back to the desired manifold at every timestep during generation. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that TAG consistently produces samples closely aligned with the desired manifold at each timestep, leading to significant improvements in generation quality across various downstream tasks.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for medical image segmentation, where automated contours feed downstream quantification and clinical decision support. Many strong uncertainty methods require repeated inference, while efficient single-forward-pass alternatives often provide weaker failure ranking or rely on restrictive feature-space assumptions. We present SegWithU, a post-hoc framework that augments a frozen pretrained segmentation backbone with a lightweight uncertainty head. SegWithU taps intermediate backbone features and models uncertainty as perturbation energy in a compact probe space using rank-1 posterior probes. It produces two voxel-wise uncertainty maps: a calibration-oriented map for probability tempering and a ranking-oriented map for error detection and selective prediction. Across ACDC, BraTS2024, and LiTS, SegWithU is the strongest and most consistent single-forward-pass baseline, achieving AUROC/AURC of 0.9838/2.4885, 0.9946/0.2660, and 0.9925/0.8193, respectively, while preserving segmentation quality. These results suggest that perturbation-based uncertainty modeling is an effective and practical route to reliability-aware medical segmentation. Source code is available at https://github.com/ProjectNeura/SegWithU.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in advanced reasoning to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in autonomous agents to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in reinforcement learning to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Mainstream Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) methods for adapting vision-language models, e.g., CLIP, typically rely on Shannon Entropy (SE) at test time to measure prediction uncertainty and inconsistency. However, since CLIP has a built-in bias from pretraining on highly imbalanced web-crawled data, SE inevitably results in producing biased estimates of uncertainty entropy. To address this issue, we notably find and demonstrate that Tsallis Entropy (TE), a generalized form of SE, is naturally suited for characterizing biased distributions by introducing a non-extensive parameter q, with the performance of SE serving as a lower bound for TE. Building upon this, we generalize TE into Adaptive Debiasing Tsallis Entropy (ADTE) for TTA, customizing a class-specific parameter q^l derived by normalizing the estimated label bias from continuously incoming test instances, for each category. This adaptive approach allows ADTE to accurately select high-confidence views and seamlessly integrate with a label adjustment strategy to enhance adaptation, without introducing distribution-specific hyperparameter tuning. Besides, our investigation reveals that both TE and ADTE can serve as direct, advanced alternatives to SE in TTA, without any other modifications. Experimental results show that ADTE outperforms state-of-the-art methods on ImageNet and its five variants, and achieves the highest average performance on 10 cross-domain benchmarks, regardless of the model architecture or text prompts used. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jinx630/ADTE.

Video foundation models generate visually realistic and temporally coherent content, but their reliability as world simulators depends on whether they capture physical, logical, and spatial constraints. Existing metrics such as Frechet Video Distance (FVD) emphasize perceptual quality and overlook reasoning failures, including violations of causality, physics, and global consistency. We introduce MMGR (Multi-Modal Generative Reasoning Evaluation and Benchmark), a principled evaluation framework based on five reasoning abilities: Physical, Logical, 3D Spatial, 2D Spatial, and Temporal. MMGR evaluates generative reasoning across three domains: Abstract Reasoning (ARC-AGI, Sudoku), Embodied Navigation (real-world 3D navigation and localization), and Physical Commonsense (sports and compositional interactions). MMGR applies fine-grained metrics that require holistic correctness across both video and image generation. We benchmark leading video models (Veo-3, Sora-2, Wan-2.2) and image models (Nano-banana, Nano-banana Pro, GPT-4o-image, Qwen-image), revealing strong performance gaps across domains. Models show moderate success on Physical Commonsense tasks but perform poorly on Abstract Reasoning (below 10 percent accuracy on ARC-AGI) and struggle with long-horizon spatial planning in embodied settings. Our analysis highlights key limitations in current models, including overreliance on perceptual data, weak global state consistency, and objectives that reward visual plausibility over causal correctness. MMGR offers a unified diagnostic benchmark and a path toward reasoning-aware generative world models.

Health Indicators (HIs) are essential for predicting system failures in predictive maintenance. While methods like RaPP (Reconstruction along Projected Pathways) improve traditional HI approaches by leveraging autoencoder latent spaces, their performance can be hindered by both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates uncertainty quantification into autoencoder-based latent spaces, enhancing RaPP-generated HIs. We demonstrate that separating aleatoric uncertainty from epistemic uncertainty and cross combining HI information is the driver of accuracy improvements in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Our method employs both standard and variational autoencoders to construct these HIs, which are then used to train a machine learning model for RUL prediction. Benchmarked on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan dataset, our approach outperforms traditional HI-based methods and end-to-end RUL prediction models and is competitive with RUL estimation methods. These results underscore the importance of uncertainty quantification in health assessment and showcase its significant impact on predictive performance when incorporated into the HI construction process.

Using image models naively for solving inverse video problems often suffers from flickering, texture-sticking, and temporal inconsistency in generated videos. To tackle these problems, in this paper, we view frames as continuous functions in the 2D space, and videos as a sequence of continuous warping transformations between different frames. This perspective allows us to train function space diffusion models only on images and utilize them to solve temporally correlated inverse problems. The function space diffusion models need to be equivariant with respect to the underlying spatial transformations. To ensure temporal consistency, we introduce a simple post-hoc test-time guidance towards (self)-equivariant solutions. Our method allows us to deploy state-of-the-art latent diffusion models such as Stable Diffusion XL to solve video inverse problems. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for video inpainting and 8times video super-resolution, outperforming existing techniques based on noise transformations. We provide generated video results: https://giannisdaras.github.io/warped_diffusion.github.io/.

There are increasing concerns about malicious attacks on autonomous vehicles. In particular, inaudible voice command attacks pose a significant threat as voice commands become available in autonomous driving systems. How to empirically defend against these inaudible attacks remains an open question. Previous research investigates utilizing deep learning-based multimodal fusion for defense, without considering the model uncertainty in trustworthiness. As deep learning has been applied to increasingly sensitive tasks, uncertainty measurement is crucial in helping improve model robustness, especially in mission-critical scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Multimodal Fusion Framework (MFF) as an intelligent security system to defend against inaudible voice command attacks. MFF fuses heterogeneous audio-vision modalities using VGG family neural networks and achieves the detection accuracy of 92.25% in the comparative fusion method empirical study. Additionally, extensive experiments on audio-vision tasks reveal the model's uncertainty. Using Expected Calibration Errors, we measure calibration errors and Monte-Carlo Dropout to estimate the predictive distribution for the proposed models. Our findings show empirically to train robust multimodal models, improve standard accuracy and provide a further step toward interpretability. Finally, we discuss the pros and cons of our approach and its applicability for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

Despite the impressive capabilities of large language models (LLMs) across diverse applications, they still suffer from trustworthiness issues, such as hallucinations and misalignments. Retrieval-augmented language models (RAG) have been proposed to enhance the credibility of generations by grounding external knowledge, but the theoretical understandings of their generation risks remains unexplored. In this paper, we answer: 1) whether RAG can indeed lead to low generation risks, 2) how to provide provable guarantees on the generation risks of RAG and vanilla LLMs, and 3) what sufficient conditions enable RAG models to reduce generation risks. We propose C-RAG, the first framework to certify generation risks for RAG models. Specifically, we provide conformal risk analysis for RAG models and certify an upper confidence bound of generation risks, which we refer to as conformal generation risk. We also provide theoretical guarantees on conformal generation risks for general bounded risk functions under test distribution shifts. We prove that RAG achieves a lower conformal generation risk than that of a single LLM when the quality of the retrieval model and transformer is non-trivial. Our intensive empirical results demonstrate the soundness and tightness of our conformal generation risk guarantees across four widely-used NLP datasets on four state-of-the-art retrieval models.

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional outcome distribution, and (ii) a multi-basis measurement setting that concatenates measurement probabilities in different bases (Z, X, Y) into a twelve-dimensional output space. By combining a multioutput regression model (e.g., random forests) with distributional conformal prediction, we validate coverage and interval-set sizes on both simulated quantum data and multi-basis measurement data. Our results confirm that classical conformal prediction can effectively provide coverage guarantees even when the target probabilities derive from inherently quantum processes. Such synergy opens the door to next-generation quantum-classical hybrid frameworks, providing both improved interpretability and rigorous coverage for quantum machine learning tasks. All codes and full reproducible Colab notebooks are made available at https://github.com/detasar/QECMMOU.

Accurate ocean modeling and coastal hazard prediction depend on high-resolution bathymetric data; yet, current worldwide datasets are too coarse for exact numerical simulations. While recent deep learning advances have improved earth observation data resolution, existing methods struggle with the unique challenges of producing detailed ocean floor maps, especially in maintaining physical structure consistency and quantifying uncertainties. This work presents a novel uncertainty-aware mechanism using spatial blocks to efficiently capture local bathymetric complexity based on block-based conformal prediction. Using the Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) architecture, the integration of this uncertainty quantification framework yields spatially adaptive confidence estimates while preserving topographical features via discrete latent representations. With smaller uncertainty widths in well-characterized areas and appropriately larger bounds in areas of complex seafloor structures, the block-based design adapts uncertainty estimates to local bathymetric complexity. Compared to conventional techniques, experimental results over several ocean regions show notable increases in both reconstruction quality and uncertainty estimation reliability. This framework increases the reliability of bathymetric reconstructions by preserving structural integrity while offering spatially adaptive uncertainty estimates, so opening the path for more solid climate modeling and coastal hazard assessment.

Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Quantifying similarity between neural representations -- e.g. hidden layer activation vectors -- is a perennial problem in deep learning and neuroscience research. Existing methods compare deterministic responses (e.g. artificial networks that lack stochastic layers) or averaged responses (e.g., trial-averaged firing rates in biological data). However, these measures of _deterministic_ representational similarity ignore the scale and geometric structure of noise, both of which play important roles in neural computation. To rectify this, we generalize previously proposed shape metrics (Williams et al. 2021) to quantify differences in _stochastic_ representations. These new distances satisfy the triangle inequality, and thus can be used as a rigorous basis for many supervised and unsupervised analyses. Leveraging this novel framework, we find that the stochastic geometries of neurobiological representations of oriented visual gratings and naturalistic scenes respectively resemble untrained and trained deep network representations. Further, we are able to more accurately predict certain network attributes (e.g. training hyperparameters) from its position in stochastic (versus deterministic) shape space.

Despite the remarkable progress in generative modelling, current diffusion models lack a quantitative approach to assess image quality. To address this limitation, we propose to estimate the pixel-wise aleatoric uncertainty during the sampling phase of diffusion models and utilise the uncertainty to improve the sample generation quality. The uncertainty is computed as the variance of the denoising scores with a perturbation scheme that is specifically designed for diffusion models. We then show that the aleatoric uncertainty estimates are related to the second-order derivative of the diffusion noise distribution. We evaluate our uncertainty estimation algorithm and the uncertainty-guided sampling on the ImageNet and CIFAR-10 datasets. In our comparisons with the related work, we demonstrate promising results in filtering out low quality samples. Furthermore, we show that our guided approach leads to better sample generation in terms of FID scores.

3D Visual Question Answering (3D VQA) is crucial for enabling models to perceive the physical world and perform spatial reasoning. In 3D VQA, the free-form nature of answers often leads to improper annotations that can confuse or mislead models when training on the entire dataset. While other text generation tasks can mitigate this issue by learning on large-scale datasets, the scarcity of 3D scene data enlarges the negative effect of misleading annotations. Although active learning strategies can select valuable instances for training, they fail to identify and resolve misleading labels, which the oracle inevitably provides in practice. To address this issue, we propose a multi-turn interactive active learning strategy. This strategy selects data based on models' semantic uncertainty to form a solid knowledge foundation more effectively and actively requests reannotation from an oracle to resolve potentially misleading labels. For uncertainty assessment, we utilize a variance-based metric that takes semantic relationships between terms into consideration, thus avoiding the uniform inter-class similarity assumption of previous assessment metrics. Extensive experiments exhibit better model performance and a substantial reduction in training costs, with a halving of training costs for achieving relatively high accuracy. The code is available at https://github.com/fz-zsl/AQuA.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has emerged as a widely adopted approach for enhancing LLMs in scenarios that demand extensive factual knowledge. However, current RAG evaluations concentrate primarily on correctness, which may not fully capture the impact of retrieval on LLM uncertainty and reliability. To bridge this gap, we introduce URAG, a comprehensive benchmark designed to assess the uncertainty of RAG systems across various fields like healthcare, programming, science, math, and general text. By reformulating open-ended generation tasks into multiple-choice question answering, URAG allows for principled uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction. We apply the evaluation pipeline to 8 standard RAG methods, measuring their performance through both accuracy and prediction-set sizes based on LAC and APS metrics. Our analysis shows that (1) accuracy gains often coincide with reduced uncertainty, but this relationship breaks under retrieval noise; (2) simple modular RAG methods tend to offer better accuracy-uncertainty trade-offs than more complex reasoning pipelines; and (3) no single RAG approach is universally reliable across domains. We further show that (4) retrieval depth, parametric knowledge dependence, and exposure to confidence cues can amplify confident errors and hallucinations. Ultimately, URAG establishes a systematic benchmark for analyzing and enhancing the trustworthiness of retrieval-augmented systems. Our code is available on GitHub.

Robust reinforcement learning is essential for deploying reinforcement learning algorithms in real-world scenarios where environmental uncertainty predominates. Traditional robust reinforcement learning often depends on rectangularity assumptions, where adverse probability measures of outcome states are assumed to be independent across different states and actions. This assumption, rarely fulfilled in practice, leads to overly conservative policies. To address this problem, we introduce a new time-constrained robust MDP (TC-RMDP) formulation that considers multifactorial, correlated, and time-dependent disturbances, thus more accurately reflecting real-world dynamics. This formulation goes beyond the conventional rectangularity paradigm, offering new perspectives and expanding the analytical framework for robust RL. We propose three distinct algorithms, each using varying levels of environmental information, and evaluate them extensively on continuous control benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that these algorithms yield an efficient tradeoff between performance and robustness, outperforming traditional deep robust RL methods in time-constrained environments while preserving robustness in classical benchmarks. This study revisits the prevailing assumptions in robust RL and opens new avenues for developing more practical and realistic RL applications.

Geo-localization is an essential component of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) navigation systems to ensure precise absolute self-localization in outdoor environments. To address the challenges of GPS signal interruptions or low illumination, Thermal Geo-localization (TG) employs aerial thermal imagery to align with reference satellite maps to accurately determine the UAV's location. However, existing TG methods lack uncertainty measurement in their outputs, compromising system robustness in the presence of textureless or corrupted thermal images, self-similar or outdated satellite maps, geometric noises, or thermal images exceeding satellite maps. To overcome these limitations, this paper presents UASTHN, a novel approach for Uncertainty Estimation (UE) in Deep Homography Estimation (DHE) tasks for TG applications. Specifically, we introduce a novel Crop-based Test-Time Augmentation (CropTTA) strategy, which leverages the homography consensus of cropped image views to effectively measure data uncertainty. This approach is complemented by Deep Ensembles (DE) employed for model uncertainty, offering comparable performance with improved efficiency and seamless integration with any DHE model. Extensive experiments across multiple DHE models demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of CropTTA in TG applications. Analysis of detected failure cases underscores the improved reliability of CropTTA under challenging conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the capability of combining CropTTA and DE for a comprehensive assessment of both data and model uncertainty. Our research provides profound insights into the broader intersection of localization and uncertainty estimation. The code and models are publicly available.

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate predictions, but they generally still lack precise statistical guarantees unless they are further calibrated using independent hold-out data. This paper addresses the above limitation with conformalized early stopping: a novel method that combines early stopping with conformal calibration while efficiently recycling the same hold-out data. This leads to models that are both accurate and able to provide exact predictive inferences without multiple data splits nor overly conservative adjustments. Practical implementations are developed for different learning tasks -- outlier detection, multi-class classification, regression -- and their competitive performance is demonstrated on real data.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

We present SpaceTimePilot, a video diffusion model that disentangles space and time for controllable generative rendering. Given a monocular video, SpaceTimePilot can independently alter the camera viewpoint and the motion sequence within the generative process, re-rendering the scene for continuous and arbitrary exploration across space and time. To achieve this, we introduce an effective animation time-embedding mechanism in the diffusion process, allowing explicit control of the output video's motion sequence with respect to that of the source video. As no datasets provide paired videos of the same dynamic scene with continuous temporal variations, we propose a simple yet effective temporal-warping training scheme that repurposes existing multi-view datasets to mimic temporal differences. This strategy effectively supervises the model to learn temporal control and achieve robust space-time disentanglement. To further enhance the precision of dual control, we introduce two additional components: an improved camera-conditioning mechanism that allows altering the camera from the first frame, and CamxTime, the first synthetic space-and-time full-coverage rendering dataset that provides fully free space-time video trajectories within a scene. Joint training on the temporal-warping scheme and the CamxTime dataset yields more precise temporal control. We evaluate SpaceTimePilot on both real-world and synthetic data, demonstrating clear space-time disentanglement and strong results compared to prior work. Project page: https://zheninghuang.github.io/Space-Time-Pilot/ Code: https://github.com/ZheningHuang/spacetimepilot

In the pursuit of superior video-processing MLLMs, we have encountered a perplexing paradox: the "anti-scaling law", where more data and larger models lead to worse performance. This study unmasks the culprit: "temporal hacking", a phenomenon where models shortcut by fixating on select frames, missing the full video narrative. In this work, we systematically establish a comprehensive theory of temporal hacking, defining it from a reinforcement learning perspective, introducing the Temporal Perplexity (TPL) score to assess this misalignment, and proposing the Unhackable Temporal Rewarding (UTR) framework to mitigate the temporal hacking. Both theoretically and empirically, TPL proves to be a reliable indicator of temporal modeling quality, correlating strongly with frame activation patterns. Extensive experiments reveal that UTR not only counters temporal hacking but significantly elevates video comprehension capabilities. This work not only advances video-AI systems but also illuminates the critical importance of aligning proxy rewards with true objectives in MLLM development.

The proliferation of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) from various institutions has highlighted the urgent need for comprehensive evaluation methods. However, current evaluation platforms, such as the widely recognized HuggingFace open LLM leaderboard, neglect a crucial aspect -- uncertainty, which is vital for thoroughly assessing LLMs. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new benchmarking approach for LLMs that integrates uncertainty quantification. Our examination involves eight LLMs (LLM series) spanning five representative natural language processing tasks. Additionally, we introduce an uncertainty-aware evaluation metric, UAcc, which takes into account both prediction accuracy and prediction uncertainty. Our findings reveal that: I) LLMs with higher accuracy may exhibit lower certainty; II) Larger-scale LLMs may display greater uncertainty compared to their smaller counterparts; and III) Instruction-finetuning tends to increase the uncertainty of LLMs. By taking uncertainty into account, our new UAcc metric can either amplify or diminish the relative improvement of one LLM over another and may even change the relative ranking of two LLMs. These results underscore the significance of incorporating uncertainty in the evaluation of LLMs.

For safety, medical AI systems undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth which is assumed to be fixed and certain. However, this ground truth is often curated in the form of differential diagnoses. While a single differential diagnosis reflects the uncertainty in one expert assessment, multiple experts introduce another layer of uncertainty through disagreement. Both forms of uncertainty are ignored in standard evaluation which aggregates these differential diagnoses to a single label. In this paper, we show that ignoring uncertainty leads to overly optimistic estimates of model performance, therefore underestimating risk associated with particular diagnostic decisions. To this end, we propose a statistical aggregation approach, where we infer a distribution on probabilities of underlying medical condition candidates themselves, based on observed annotations. This formulation naturally accounts for the potential disagreements between different experts, as well as uncertainty stemming from individual differential diagnoses, capturing the entire ground truth uncertainty. Our approach boils down to generating multiple samples of medical condition probabilities, then evaluating and averaging performance metrics based on these sampled probabilities. In skin condition classification, we find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates. In contrast, our framework provides uncertainty estimates on common metrics of interest such as top-k accuracy and average overlap, showing that performance can change multiple percentage points. We conclude that, while assuming a crisp ground truth can be acceptable for many AI applications, a more nuanced evaluation protocol should be utilized in medical diagnosis.

Despite rapid advances in video generative models, robust metrics for evaluating visual and temporal correctness of complex human actions remain elusive. Critically, existing pure-vision encoders and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are strongly appearance-biased, lack temporal understanding, and thus struggle to discern intricate motion dynamics and anatomical implausibilities in generated videos. We tackle this gap by introducing a novel evaluation metric derived from a learned latent space of real-world human actions. Our method first captures the nuances, constraints, and temporal smoothness of real-world motion by fusing appearance-agnostic human skeletal geometry features with appearance-based features. We posit that this combined feature space provides a robust representation of action plausibility. Given a generated video, our metric quantifies its action quality by measuring the distance between its underlying representations and this learned real-world action distribution. For rigorous validation, we develop a new multi-faceted benchmark specifically designed to probe temporally challenging aspects of human action fidelity. Through extensive experiments, we show that our metric achieves substantial improvement of more than 68% compared to existing state-of-the-art methods on our benchmark, performs competitively on established external benchmarks, and has a stronger correlation with human perception. Our in-depth analysis reveals critical limitations in current video generative models and establishes a new standard for advanced research in video generation.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Research on video frame interpolation has made significant progress in recent years. However, existing methods mostly use off-the-shelf metrics to measure the quality of interpolation results with the exception of a few methods that employ user studies, which is time-consuming. As video frame interpolation results often exhibit unique artifacts, existing quality metrics sometimes are not consistent with human perception when measuring the interpolation results. Some recent deep learning-based perceptual quality metrics are shown more consistent with human judgments, but their performance on videos is compromised since they do not consider temporal information. In this paper, we present a dedicated perceptual quality metric for measuring video frame interpolation results. Our method learns perceptual features directly from videos instead of individual frames. It compares pyramid features extracted from video frames and employs Swin Transformer blocks-based spatio-temporal modules to extract spatio-temporal information. To train our metric, we collected a new video frame interpolation quality assessment dataset. Our experiments show that our dedicated quality metric outperforms state-of-the-art methods when measuring video frame interpolation results. Our code and model are made publicly available at https://github.com/hqqxyy/VFIPS.

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

The progress in modelling time series and, more generally, sequences of structured data has recently revamped research in anomaly detection. The task stands for identifying abnormal behaviors in financial series, IT systems, aerospace measurements, and the medical domain, where anomaly detection may aid in isolating cases of depression and attend the elderly. Anomaly detection in time series is a complex task since anomalies are rare due to highly non-linear temporal correlations and since the definition of anomalous is sometimes subjective. Here we propose the novel use of Hyperbolic uncertainty for Anomaly Detection (HypAD). HypAD learns self-supervisedly to reconstruct the input signal. We adopt best practices from the state-of-the-art to encode the sequence by an LSTM, jointly learned with a decoder to reconstruct the signal, with the aid of GAN critics. Uncertainty is estimated end-to-end by means of a hyperbolic neural network. By using uncertainty, HypAD may assess whether it is certain about the input signal but it fails to reconstruct it because this is anomalous; or whether the reconstruction error does not necessarily imply anomaly, as the model is uncertain, e.g. a complex but regular input signal. The novel key idea is that a detectable anomaly is one where the model is certain but it predicts wrongly. HypAD outperforms the current state-of-the-art for univariate anomaly detection on established benchmarks based on data from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. It also yields state-of-the-art performance on a multivariate dataset of anomaly activities in elderly home residences, and it outperforms the baseline on SWaT. Overall, HypAD yields the lowest false alarms at the best performance rate, thanks to successfully identifying detectable anomalies.

Satellite image time-series analysis demands fine-grained spatial-temporal reasoning, which remains a challenge for existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In this work, we study the capabilities of MLLMs on a novel task that jointly targets temporal change understanding and future scene generation, aiming to assess their potential for modeling complex multimodal dynamics over time. We propose TAMMs, a Temporal-Aware Multimodal Model for satellite image change understanding and forecasting, which enhances frozen MLLMs with lightweight temporal modules for structured sequence encoding and contextual prompting. To guide future image generation, TAMMs introduces a Semantic-Fused Control Injection (SFCI) mechanism that adaptively combines high-level semantic reasoning and structural priors within an enhanced ControlNet. This dual-path conditioning enables temporally consistent and semantically grounded image synthesis. Experiments demonstrate that TAMMs outperforms strong MLLM baselines in both temporal change understanding and future image forecasting tasks, highlighting how carefully designed temporal reasoning and semantic fusion can unlock the full potential of MLLMs for spatio-temporal understanding.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have shown promise in applications like view synthesis and depth estimation, but learning from multiview images faces inherent uncertainties. Current methods to quantify them are either heuristic or computationally demanding. We introduce BayesRays, a post-hoc framework to evaluate uncertainty in any pre-trained NeRF without modifying the training process. Our method establishes a volumetric uncertainty field using spatial perturbations and a Bayesian Laplace approximation. We derive our algorithm statistically and show its superior performance in key metrics and applications. Additional results available at: https://bayesrays.github.io.

A crucial requirement for reliable deployment of deep learning models for safety-critical applications is the ability to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data points, samples which differ from the training data and on which a model might underperform. Previous work has attempted to tackle this problem using uncertainty estimation techniques. However, there is empirical evidence that a large family of these techniques do not detect OOD reliably in classification tasks. This paper gives a theoretical explanation for said experimental findings and illustrates it on synthetic data. We prove that such techniques are not able to reliably identify OOD samples in a classification setting, since their level of confidence is generalized to unseen areas of the feature space. This result stems from the interplay between the representation of ReLU networks as piece-wise affine transformations, the saturating nature of activation functions like softmax, and the most widely-used uncertainty metrics.

Representation learning has significantly driven the field to develop pretrained models that can act as a valuable starting point when transferring to new datasets. With the rising demand for reliable machine learning and uncertainty quantification, there is a need for pretrained models that not only provide embeddings but also transferable uncertainty estimates. To guide the development of such models, we propose the Uncertainty-aware Representation Learning (URL) benchmark. Besides the transferability of the representations, it also measures the zero-shot transferability of the uncertainty estimate using a novel metric. We apply URL to evaluate eleven uncertainty quantifiers that are pretrained on ImageNet and transferred to eight downstream datasets. We find that approaches that focus on the uncertainty of the representation itself or estimate the prediction risk directly outperform those that are based on the probabilities of upstream classes. Yet, achieving transferable uncertainty quantification remains an open challenge. Our findings indicate that it is not necessarily in conflict with traditional representation learning goals. Code is provided under https://github.com/mkirchhof/url .

Dependable visual drone detection is crucial for the secure integration of drones into the airspace. However, drone detection accuracy is significantly affected by domain shifts due to environmental changes, varied points of view, and background shifts. To address these challenges, we present the DrIFT dataset, specifically developed for visual drone detection under domain shifts. DrIFT includes fourteen distinct domains, each characterized by shifts in point of view, synthetic-to-real data, season, and adverse weather. DrIFT uniquely emphasizes background shift by providing background segmentation maps to enable background-wise metrics and evaluation. Our new uncertainty estimation metric, MCDO-map, features lower postprocessing complexity, surpassing traditional methods. We use the MCDO-map in our uncertainty-aware unsupervised domain adaptation method, demonstrating superior performance to SOTA unsupervised domain adaptation techniques. The dataset is available at: https://github.com/CARG-uOttawa/DrIFT.git.

Generating long-range, geometrically consistent video presents a fundamental dilemma: while consistency demands strict adherence to 3D geometry in pixel space, state-of-the-art generative models operate most effectively in a camera-conditioned latent space. This disconnect causes current methods to struggle with occluded areas and complex camera trajectories. To bridge this gap, we propose WorldWarp, a framework that couples a 3D structural anchor with a 2D generative refiner. To establish geometric grounding, WorldWarp maintains an online 3D geometric cache built via Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). By explicitly warping historical content into novel views, this cache acts as a structural scaffold, ensuring each new frame respects prior geometry. However, static warping inevitably leaves holes and artifacts due to occlusions. We address this using a Spatio-Temporal Diffusion (ST-Diff) model designed for a "fill-and-revise" objective. Our key innovation is a spatio-temporal varying noise schedule: blank regions receive full noise to trigger generation, while warped regions receive partial noise to enable refinement. By dynamically updating the 3D cache at every step, WorldWarp maintains consistency across video chunks. Consequently, it achieves state-of-the-art fidelity by ensuring that 3D logic guides structure while diffusion logic perfects texture. Project page: https://hyokong.github.io/worldwarp-page/{https://hyokong.github.io/worldwarp-page/}.

To generate accurate videos, algorithms have to understand the spatial and temporal dependencies in the world. Current algorithms enable accurate predictions over short horizons but tend to suffer from temporal inconsistencies. When generated content goes out of view and is later revisited, the model invents different content instead. Despite this severe limitation, no established benchmarks on complex data exist for rigorously evaluating video generation with long temporal dependencies. In this paper, we curate 3 challenging video datasets with long-range dependencies by rendering walks through 3D scenes of procedural mazes, Minecraft worlds, and indoor scans. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of current models and observe their limitations in temporal consistency. Moreover, we introduce the Temporally Consistent Transformer (TECO), a generative model that substantially improves long-term consistency while also reducing sampling time. By compressing its input sequence into fewer embeddings, applying a temporal transformer, and expanding back using a spatial MaskGit, TECO outperforms existing models across many metrics. Videos are available on the website: https://wilson1yan.github.io/teco