Daily Papers

Accurately perceiving instances and predicting their future motion are key tasks for autonomous vehicles, enabling them to navigate safely in complex urban traffic. While bird's-eye view (BEV) representations are commonplace in perception for autonomous driving, their potential in a motion prediction setting is less explored. Existing approaches for BEV instance prediction from surround cameras rely on a multi-task auto-regressive setup coupled with complex post-processing to predict future instances in a spatio-temporally consistent manner. In this paper, we depart from this paradigm and propose an efficient novel end-to-end framework named POWERBEV, which differs in several design choices aimed at reducing the inherent redundancy in previous methods. First, rather than predicting the future in an auto-regressive fashion, POWERBEV uses a parallel, multi-scale module built from lightweight 2D convolutional networks. Second, we show that segmentation and centripetal backward flow are sufficient for prediction, simplifying previous multi-task objectives by eliminating redundant output modalities. Building on this output representation, we propose a simple, flow warping-based post-processing approach which produces more stable instance associations across time. Through this lightweight yet powerful design, POWERBEV outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on the NuScenes Dataset and poses an alternative paradigm for BEV instance prediction. We made our code publicly available at: https://github.com/EdwardLeeLPZ/PowerBEV.

The task of video generation requires synthesizing visually realistic and temporally coherent video frames. Existing methods primarily use asynchronous auto-regressive models or synchronous diffusion models to address this challenge. However, asynchronous auto-regressive models often suffer from inconsistencies between training and inference, leading to issues such as error accumulation, while synchronous diffusion models are limited by their reliance on rigid sequence length. To address these issues, we introduce Auto-Regressive Diffusion (AR-Diffusion), a novel model that combines the strengths of auto-regressive and diffusion models for flexible, asynchronous video generation. Specifically, our approach leverages diffusion to gradually corrupt video frames in both training and inference, reducing the discrepancy between these phases. Inspired by auto-regressive generation, we incorporate a non-decreasing constraint on the corruption timesteps of individual frames, ensuring that earlier frames remain clearer than subsequent ones. This setup, together with temporal causal attention, enables flexible generation of videos with varying lengths while preserving temporal coherence. In addition, we design two specialized timestep schedulers: the FoPP scheduler for balanced timestep sampling during training, and the AD scheduler for flexible timestep differences during inference, supporting both synchronous and asynchronous generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method, which achieves competitive and state-of-the-art results across four challenging benchmarks.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been credited as the key advance that has allowed Large Language Models (LLMs) to effectively follow instructions and produce useful assistance. Classically, this involves generating completions from the LLM in response to a query before using a separate reward model to assign a score to the full completion. As an auto-regressive process, the LLM has to take many "actions" (selecting individual tokens) and only receives a single, sparse reward at the end of an episode, a setup that is known to be difficult to optimise in traditional reinforcement learning. In this work we leverage the fact that the reward model contains more information than just its scalar output, in particular, it calculates an attention map over tokens as part of the transformer architecture. We use these attention weights to redistribute the reward along the whole completion, effectively densifying the signal and highlighting the most important tokens, all without incurring extra computational cost or requiring any additional modelling. We demonstrate that, theoretically, this approach is equivalent to potential-based reward shaping, ensuring that the optimal policy remains unchanged. Empirically, we show that it stabilises training, accelerates the rate of learning, and, in practical cases, may lead to better local optima.

Auto-Regressive (AR) models have achieved impressive results in 2D image generation by modeling joint distributions in the grid space. While this approach has been extended to the 3D domain for powerful shape generation, it still has two limitations: expensive computations on volumetric grids and ambiguous auto-regressive order along grid dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Improved Auto-regressive Model (ImAM) for 3D shape generation, which applies discrete representation learning based on a latent vector instead of volumetric grids. Our approach not only reduces computational costs but also preserves essential geometric details by learning the joint distribution in a more tractable order. Moreover, thanks to the simplicity of our model architecture, we can naturally extend it from unconditional to conditional generation by concatenating various conditioning inputs, such as point clouds, categories, images, and texts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ImAM can synthesize diverse and faithful shapes of multiple categories, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

In recent years, image synthesis has achieved remarkable advancements, enabling diverse applications in content creation, virtual reality, and beyond. We introduce a novel approach to image generation using Auto-Regressive (AR) modeling, which leverages a next-detail prediction strategy for enhanced fidelity and scalability. While AR models have achieved transformative success in language modeling, replicating this success in vision tasks has presented unique challenges due to the inherent spatial dependencies in images. Our proposed method addresses these challenges by iteratively adding finer details to an image compositionally, constructing it as a hierarchical combination of base and detail image factors. This strategy is shown to be more effective than the conventional next-token prediction and even surpasses the state-of-the-art next-scale prediction approaches. A key advantage of this method is its scalability to higher resolutions without requiring full model retraining, making it a versatile solution for high-resolution image generation.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

We explore deep autoregressive Transformer models in language modeling for speech recognition. We focus on two aspects. First, we revisit Transformer model configurations specifically for language modeling. We show that well configured Transformer models outperform our baseline models based on the shallow stack of LSTM recurrent neural network layers. We carry out experiments on the open-source LibriSpeech 960hr task, for both 200K vocabulary word-level and 10K byte-pair encoding subword-level language modeling. We apply our word-level models to conventional hybrid speech recognition by lattice rescoring, and the subword-level models to attention based encoder-decoder models by shallow fusion. Second, we show that deep Transformer language models do not require positional encoding. The positional encoding is an essential augmentation for the self-attention mechanism which is invariant to sequence ordering. However, in autoregressive setup, as is the case for language modeling, the amount of information increases along the position dimension, which is a positional signal by its own. The analysis of attention weights shows that deep autoregressive self-attention models can automatically make use of such positional information. We find that removing the positional encoding even slightly improves the performance of these models.

Auto-Regressive (AR) models have recently gained prominence in image generation, often matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion models. However, one major limitation of AR models is their sequential nature, which processes tokens one at a time, slowing down generation compared to models like GANs or diffusion-based methods that operate more efficiently. While speculative decoding has proven effective for accelerating LLMs by generating multiple tokens in a single forward, its application in visual AR models remains largely unexplored. In this work, we identify a challenge in this setting, which we term token selection ambiguity, wherein visual AR models frequently assign uniformly low probabilities to tokens, hampering the performance of speculative decoding. To overcome this challenge, we propose a relaxed acceptance condition referred to as LANTERN that leverages the interchangeability of tokens in latent space. This relaxation restores the effectiveness of speculative decoding in visual AR models by enabling more flexible use of candidate tokens that would otherwise be prematurely rejected. Furthermore, by incorporating a total variation distance bound, we ensure that these speed gains are achieved without significantly compromising image quality or semantic coherence. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of our method in providing a substantial speed-up over speculative decoding. In specific, compared to a na\"ive application of the state-of-the-art speculative decoding, LANTERN increases speed-ups by 1.75times and 1.76times, as compared to greedy decoding and random sampling, respectively, when applied to LlamaGen, a contemporary visual AR model.

The massive adoption of large language models (LLMs) demands efficient deployment strategies. However, the auto-regressive decoding process, which is fundamental to how most LLMs generate text, poses challenges to achieve efficient serving. In this work, we introduce a parallel auto-regressive generation method. By instruct-tuning on general domain data that contains hierarchical structures, we enable LLMs to independently plan their generation process and perform auto-parallel auto-regressive (APAR) generation, significantly reducing the number of generation steps. APAR alone can achieve up to 2x speed-up, and when combined with speculative decoding, the speed-up can reach up to 4x. In addition, APAR reduces the key-value cache consumption and attention computation during generation. This leads to a throughput increase of 20-70% and a latency reduce of 20-35% in high-throughput scenarios, compared to state-of-the-art serving frameworks.

Auto-regressive models have achieved impressive results in 2D image generation by modeling joint distributions in grid space. In this paper, we extend auto-regressive models to 3D domains, and seek a stronger ability of 3D shape generation by improving auto-regressive models at capacity and scalability simultaneously. Firstly, we leverage an ensemble of publicly available 3D datasets to facilitate the training of large-scale models. It consists of a comprehensive collection of approximately 900,000 objects, with multiple properties of meshes, points, voxels, rendered images, and text captions. This diverse labeled dataset, termed Objaverse-Mix, empowers our model to learn from a wide range of object variations. However, directly applying 3D auto-regression encounters critical challenges of high computational demands on volumetric grids and ambiguous auto-regressive order along grid dimensions, resulting in inferior quality of 3D shapes. To this end, we then present a novel framework Argus3D in terms of capacity. Concretely, our approach introduces discrete representation learning based on a latent vector instead of volumetric grids, which not only reduces computational costs but also preserves essential geometric details by learning the joint distributions in a more tractable order. The capacity of conditional generation can thus be realized by simply concatenating various conditioning inputs to the latent vector, such as point clouds, categories, images, and texts. In addition, thanks to the simplicity of our model architecture, we naturally scale up our approach to a larger model with an impressive 3.6 billion parameters, further enhancing the quality of versatile 3D generation. Extensive experiments on four generation tasks demonstrate that Argus3D can synthesize diverse and faithful shapes across multiple categories, achieving remarkable performance.

Personalized image synthesis has emerged as a pivotal application in text-to-image generation, enabling the creation of images featuring specific subjects in diverse contexts. While diffusion models have dominated this domain, auto-regressive models, with their unified architecture for text and image modeling, remain underexplored for personalized image generation. This paper investigates the potential of optimizing auto-regressive models for personalized image synthesis, leveraging their inherent multimodal capabilities to perform this task. We propose a two-stage training strategy that combines optimization of text embeddings and fine-tuning of transformer layers. Our experiments on the auto-regressive model demonstrate that this method achieves comparable subject fidelity and prompt following to the leading diffusion-based personalization methods. The results highlight the effectiveness of auto-regressive models in personalized image generation, offering a new direction for future research in this area.

Current language models demonstrate remarkable proficiency in text generation. However, for many applications it is desirable to control attributes, such as sentiment, or toxicity, of the generated language -- ideally tailored towards each specific use case and target audience. For auto-regressive language models, existing guidance methods are prone to decoding errors that cascade during generation and degrade performance. In contrast, text diffusion models can easily be guided with, for example, a simple linear sentiment classifier -- however they do suffer from significantly higher perplexity than auto-regressive alternatives. In this paper we use a guided diffusion model to produce a latent proposal that steers an auto-regressive language model to generate text with desired properties. Our model inherits the unmatched fluency of the auto-regressive approach and the plug-and-play flexibility of diffusion. We show that it outperforms previous plug-and-play guidance methods across a wide range of benchmark data sets. Further, controlling a new attribute in our framework is reduced to training a single logistic regression classifier.

Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models significantly reduce inference steps through the "next-scale" prediction paradigm. However, progressive multi-scale generation incurs substantial memory overhead due to cumulative KV caching, limiting practical deployment. We observe a scale-depth asymmetric dependency in VAR: early scales exhibit extreme sensitivity to network depth, while later scales remain robust to depth reduction. Inspired by this, we propose VARiant: by equidistant sampling, we select multiple subnets ranging from 16 to 2 layers from the original 30-layer VAR-d30 network. Early scales are processed by the full network, while later scales utilize subnet. Subnet and the full network share weights, enabling flexible depth adjustment within a single model. However, weight sharing between subnet and the entire network can lead to optimization conflicts. To address this, we propose a progressive training strategy that breaks through the Pareto frontier of generation quality for both subnets and the full network under fixed-ratio training, achieving joint optimality. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that, compared to the pretrained VAR-d30 (FID 1.95), VARiant-d16 and VARiant-d8 achieve nearly equivalent quality (FID 2.05/2.12) while reducing memory consumption by 40-65%. VARiant-d2 achieves 3.5 times speedup and 80% memory reduction at moderate quality cost (FID 2.97). In terms of deployment, VARiant's single-model architecture supports zero-cost runtime depth switching and provides flexible deployment options from high quality to extreme efficiency, catering to diverse application scenarios.

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

Image Auto-regressive (AR) models have emerged as a powerful paradigm of visual generative models. Despite their promising performance, they suffer from slow generation speed due to the large number of sampling steps required. Although Distilled Decoding 1 (DD1) was recently proposed to enable few-step sampling for image AR models, it still incurs significant performance degradation in the one-step setting, and relies on a pre-defined mapping that limits its flexibility. In this work, we propose a new method, Distilled Decoding 2 (DD2), to further advances the feasibility of one-step sampling for image AR models. Unlike DD1, DD2 does not without rely on a pre-defined mapping. We view the original AR model as a teacher model which provides the ground truth conditional score in the latent embedding space at each token position. Based on this, we propose a novel conditional score distillation loss to train a one-step generator. Specifically, we train a separate network to predict the conditional score of the generated distribution and apply score distillation at every token position conditioned on previous tokens. Experimental results show that DD2 enables one-step sampling for image AR models with an minimal FID increase from 3.40 to 5.43 on ImageNet-256. Compared to the strongest baseline DD1, DD2 reduces the gap between the one-step sampling and original AR model by 67%, with up to 12.3times training speed-up simultaneously. DD2 takes a significant step toward the goal of one-step AR generation, opening up new possibilities for fast and high-quality AR modeling. Code is available at https://github.com/imagination-research/Distilled-Decoding-2.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

Diffusion models have gained significant attention in the realm of image generation due to their exceptional performance. Their success has been recently expanded to text generation via generating all tokens within a sequence concurrently. However, natural language exhibits a far more pronounced sequential dependency in comparison to images, and the majority of existing language models are trained utilizing a left-to-right auto-regressive approach. To account for the inherent sequential characteristic of natural language, we introduce Auto-Regressive Diffusion (AR-Diffusion). AR-Diffusion ensures that the generation of tokens on the right depends on the generated ones on the left, a mechanism achieved through employing a dynamic number of denoising steps that vary based on token position. This results in tokens on the left undergoing fewer denoising steps than those on the right, thereby enabling them to generate earlier and subsequently influence the generation of tokens on the right. In a series of experiments on various text generation tasks including text summarization, machine translation, and common sense generation, AR-Diffusion clearly demonstrated the superiority over existing diffusion language models and that it can be 100timessim600times faster when achieving comparable results. Our code will be publicly released.

Feedforward neural networks are widely used as universal predictive models to fit data distribution. Common gradient-based learning, however, suffers from many drawbacks making the training process ineffective and time-consuming. Alternative randomized learning does not use gradients but selects hidden node parameters randomly. This makes the training process extremely fast. However, the problem in randomized learning is how to determine the random parameters. A recently proposed method uses autoencoders for unsupervised parameter learning. This method showed superior performance on classification tasks. In this work, we apply this method to regression problems, and, finding that it has some drawbacks, we show how to improve it. We propose a learning method of autoencoders that controls the produced random weights. We also propose how to determine the biases of hidden nodes. We empirically compare autoencoder based learning with other randomized learning methods proposed recently for regression and find that despite the proposed improvement of the autoencoder based learning, it does not outperform its competitors in fitting accuracy. Moreover, the method is much more complex than its competitors.

We present Open-MAGVIT2, a family of auto-regressive image generation models ranging from 300M to 1.5B. The Open-MAGVIT2 project produces an open-source replication of Google's MAGVIT-v2 tokenizer, a tokenizer with a super-large codebook (i.e., 2^{18} codes), and achieves the state-of-the-art reconstruction performance (1.17 rFID) on ImageNet 256 times 256. Furthermore, we explore its application in plain auto-regressive models and validate scalability properties. To assist auto-regressive models in predicting with a super-large vocabulary, we factorize it into two sub-vocabulary of different sizes by asymmetric token factorization, and further introduce "next sub-token prediction" to enhance sub-token interaction for better generation quality. We release all models and codes to foster innovation and creativity in the field of auto-regressive visual generation.

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: each input is reconstructed only from previous inputs in a given ordering. Constrained this way, the autoencoder outputs can be interpreted as a set of conditional probabilities, and their product, the full joint probability. We can also train a single network that can decompose the joint probability in multiple different orderings. Our simple framework can be applied to multiple architectures, including deep ones. Vectorized implementations, such as on GPUs, are simple and fast. Experiments demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art tractable distribution estimators. At test time, the method is significantly faster and scales better than other autoregressive estimators.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

In the rapidly advancing field of image generation, Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) modeling has garnered considerable attention for its innovative next-scale prediction approach. This paradigm offers substantial improvements in efficiency, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. Yet, the inherently coarse-to-fine nature of VAR introduces a prolonged token sequence, leading to prohibitive memory consumption and computational redundancies. To address these bottlenecks, we propose Collaborative Decoding (CoDe), a novel efficient decoding strategy tailored for the VAR framework. CoDe capitalizes on two critical observations: the substantially reduced parameter demands at larger scales and the exclusive generation patterns across different scales. Based on these insights, we partition the multi-scale inference process into a seamless collaboration between a large model and a small model. The large model serves as the 'drafter', specializing in generating low-frequency content at smaller scales, while the smaller model serves as the 'refiner', solely focusing on predicting high-frequency details at larger scales. This collaboration yields remarkable efficiency with minimal impact on quality: CoDe achieves a 1.7x speedup, slashes memory usage by around 50%, and preserves image quality with only a negligible FID increase from 1.95 to 1.98. When drafting steps are further decreased, CoDe can achieve an impressive 2.9x acceleration ratio, reaching 41 images/s at 256x256 resolution on a single NVIDIA 4090 GPU, while preserving a commendable FID of 2.27. The code is available at https://github.com/czg1225/CoDe

Recent advances in auto-regressive transformers have revolutionized generative modeling across different domains, from language processing to visual generation, demonstrating remarkable capabilities. However, applying these advances to 3D generation presents three key challenges: the unordered nature of 3D data conflicts with sequential next-token prediction paradigm, conventional vector quantization approaches incur substantial compression loss when applied to 3D meshes, and the lack of efficient scaling strategies for higher resolution latent prediction. To address these challenges, we introduce MAR-3D, which integrates a pyramid variational autoencoder with a cascaded masked auto-regressive transformer (Cascaded MAR) for progressive latent upscaling in the continuous space. Our architecture employs random masking during training and auto-regressive denoising in random order during inference, naturally accommodating the unordered property of 3D latent tokens. Additionally, we propose a cascaded training strategy with condition augmentation that enables efficiently up-scale the latent token resolution with fast convergence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAR-3D not only achieves superior performance and generalization capabilities compared to existing methods but also exhibits enhanced scaling capabilities compared to joint distribution modeling approaches (e.g., diffusion transformers).

Auto-regressive video generation enables long video synthesis by iteratively conditioning each new batch of frames on previously generated content. However, recent work has shown that such pipelines suffer from severe temporal drift, where errors accumulate and amplify over long horizons. We hypothesize that this drift does not primarily stem from insufficient model capacity, but rather from inference-time error propagation. Specifically, we contend that drift arises from the uncontrolled reuse of corrupted latent conditioning tokens during auto-regressive inference. To correct this accumulation of errors, we propose a simple, inference-time method that mitigates temporal drift by identifying and removing unstable latent tokens before they are reused for conditioning. For this purpose, we define unstable tokens as latent tokens whose representations deviate significantly from those of the previously generated batch, indicating potential corruption or semantic drift. By explicitly removing corrupted latent tokens from the auto-regressive context, rather than modifying entire spatial regions or model parameters, our method prevents unreliable latent information from influencing future generation steps. As a result, it significantly improves long-horizon temporal consistency without modifying the model architecture, training procedure, or leaving latent space.

We study the text generation task under the approach of pre-trained language models (PLMs). Typically, an auto-regressive (AR) method is adopted for generating texts in a token-by-token manner. Despite many advantages of AR generation, it usually suffers from inefficient inference. Therefore, non-autoregressive (NAR) models are proposed to generate all target tokens simultaneously. However, NAR models usually generate texts of lower quality due to the absence of token dependency in the output text. In this paper, we propose ELMER: an efficient and effective PLM for NAR text generation to explicitly model the token dependency during NAR generation. By leveraging the early exit technique, ELMER enables the token generations at different layers, according to their prediction confidence (a more confident token will exit at a lower layer). Besides, we propose a novel pre-training objective, Layer Permutation Language Modeling, to pre-train ELMER by permuting the exit layer for each token in sequences. Experiments on three text generation tasks show that ELMER significantly outperforms NAR models and further narrows the performance gap with AR PLMs (\eg ELMER (29.92) vs BART (30.61) ROUGE-L in XSUM) while achieving over 10 times inference speedup.

We introduce Self Forcing, a novel training paradigm for autoregressive video diffusion models. It addresses the longstanding issue of exposure bias, where models trained on ground-truth context must generate sequences conditioned on their own imperfect outputs during inference. Unlike prior methods that denoise future frames based on ground-truth context frames, Self Forcing conditions each frame's generation on previously self-generated outputs by performing autoregressive rollout with key-value (KV) caching during training. This strategy enables supervision through a holistic loss at the video level that directly evaluates the quality of the entire generated sequence, rather than relying solely on traditional frame-wise objectives. To ensure training efficiency, we employ a few-step diffusion model along with a stochastic gradient truncation strategy, effectively balancing computational cost and performance. We further introduce a rolling KV cache mechanism that enables efficient autoregressive video extrapolation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves real-time streaming video generation with sub-second latency on a single GPU, while matching or even surpassing the generation quality of significantly slower and non-causal diffusion models. Project website: http://self-forcing.github.io/

Synthetic data generation has become essential for securely sharing and analyzing sensitive data sets. Traditional anonymization techniques, however, often fail to adequately preserve privacy. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a neural network architecture specifically designed for generating high-quality synthetic tabular data. Using a discretization-based auto-regressive approach, TabularARGN achieves high data fidelity while remaining computationally efficient. We evaluate TabularARGN against existing synthetic data generation methods, showing competitive results in statistical similarity, machine learning utility, and detection robustness. We further perform an in-depth privacy evaluation using systematic membership-inference attacks, highlighting the robustness and effective privacy-utility balance of our approach.

The current large auto-regressive models can generate high-quality, high-resolution images, but these models require hundreds or even thousands of steps of next-token prediction during inference, resulting in substantial time consumption. In existing studies, Jacobi decoding, an iterative parallel decoding algorithm, has been used to accelerate the auto-regressive generation and can be executed without training. However, the Jacobi decoding relies on a deterministic criterion to determine the convergence of iterations. Thus, it works for greedy decoding but is incompatible with sampling-based decoding which is crucial for visual quality and diversity in the current auto-regressive text-to-image generation. In this paper, we propose a training-free probabilistic parallel decoding algorithm, Speculative Jacobi Decoding (SJD), to accelerate auto-regressive text-to-image generation. By introducing a probabilistic convergence criterion, our SJD accelerates the inference of auto-regressive text-to-image generation while maintaining the randomness in sampling-based token decoding and allowing the model to generate diverse images. Specifically, SJD facilitates the model to predict multiple tokens at each step and accepts tokens based on the probabilistic criterion, enabling the model to generate images with fewer steps than the conventional next-token-prediction paradigm. We also investigate the token initialization strategies that leverage the spatial locality of visual data to further improve the acceleration ratio under specific scenarios. We conduct experiments for our proposed SJD on multiple auto-regressive text-to-image generation models, showing the effectiveness of model acceleration without sacrificing the visual quality.

Current auto-regressive mesh generation methods suffer from issues such as incompleteness, insufficient detail, and poor generalization. In this paper, we propose an Auto-regressive Auto-encoder (ArAE) model capable of generating high-quality 3D meshes with up to 4,000 faces at a spatial resolution of 512^3. We introduce a novel mesh tokenization algorithm that efficiently compresses triangular meshes into 1D token sequences, significantly enhancing training efficiency. Furthermore, our model compresses variable-length triangular meshes into a fixed-length latent space, enabling training latent diffusion models for better generalization. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior quality, diversity, and generalization capabilities of our model in both point cloud and image-conditioned mesh generation tasks.

We introduce the concept of Automated Causal Discovery (AutoCD), defined as any system that aims to fully automate the application of causal discovery and causal reasoning methods. AutoCD's goal is to deliver all causal information that an expert human analyst would and answer a user's causal queries. We describe the architecture of such a platform, and illustrate its performance on synthetic data sets. As a case study, we apply it on temporal telecommunication data. The system is general and can be applied to a plethora of causal discovery problems.

We study data distillation for auto-regressive machine learning tasks, where the input and output have a strict left-to-right causal structure. More specifically, we propose Farzi, which summarizes an event sequence dataset into a small number of synthetic sequences -- Farzi Data -- which are optimized to maintain (if not improve) model performance compared to training on the full dataset. Under the hood, Farzi conducts memory-efficient data distillation by (i) deriving efficient reverse-mode differentiation of the Adam optimizer by leveraging Hessian-Vector Products; and (ii) factorizing the high-dimensional discrete event-space into a latent-space which provably promotes implicit regularization. Empirically, for sequential recommendation and language modeling tasks, we are able to achieve 98-120% of downstream full-data performance when training state-of-the-art models on Farzi Data of size as little as 0.1% of the original dataset. Notably, being able to train better models with significantly less data sheds light on the design of future large auto-regressive models, and opens up new opportunities to further scale up model and data sizes.

Synthetic data generation for tabular datasets must balance fidelity, efficiency, and versatility to meet the demands of real-world applications. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a flexible framework designed to handle mixed-type, multivariate, and sequential datasets. By training on all possible conditional probabilities, TabularARGN supports advanced features such as fairness-aware generation, imputation, and conditional generation on any subset of columns. The framework achieves state-of-the-art synthetic data quality while significantly reducing training and inference times, making it ideal for large-scale datasets with diverse structures. Evaluated across established benchmarks, including realistic datasets with complex relationships, TabularARGN demonstrates its capability to synthesize high-quality data efficiently. By unifying flexibility and performance, this framework paves the way for practical synthetic data generation across industries.

Recent advances in auto-regressive transformers have achieved remarkable success in generative modeling. However, text-to-3D generation remains challenging, primarily due to bottlenecks in learning discrete 3D representations. Specifically, existing approaches often suffer from information loss during encoding, causing representational distortion before the quantization process. This effect is further amplified by vector quantization, ultimately degrading the geometric coherence of text-conditioned 3D shapes. Moreover, the conventional two-stage training paradigm induces an objective mismatch between reconstruction and text-conditioned auto-regressive generation. To address these issues, we propose View-aware Auto-Regressive 3D (VAR-3D), which intergrates a view-aware 3D Vector Quantized-Variational AutoEncoder (VQ-VAE) to convert the complex geometric structure of 3D models into discrete tokens. Additionally, we introduce a rendering-supervised training strategy that couples discrete token prediction with visual reconstruction, encouraging the generative process to better preserve visual fidelity and structural consistency relative to the input text. Experiments demonstrate that VAR-3D significantly outperforms existing methods in both generation quality and text-3D alignment.

Generating multi-view images from human instructions is crucial for 3D content creation. The primary challenges involve maintaining consistency across multiple views and effectively synthesizing shapes and textures under diverse conditions. In this paper, we propose the Multi-View Auto-Regressive (MV-AR) method, which leverages an auto-regressive model to progressively generate consistent multi-view images from arbitrary prompts. Firstly, the next-token-prediction capability of the AR model significantly enhances its effectiveness in facilitating progressive multi-view synthesis. When generating widely-separated views, MV-AR can utilize all its preceding views to extract effective reference information. Subsequently, we propose a unified model that accommodates various prompts via architecture designing and training strategies. To address multiple conditions, we introduce condition injection modules for text, camera pose, image, and shape. To manage multi-modal conditions simultaneously, a progressive training strategy is employed. This strategy initially adopts the text-to-multi-view (t2mv) model as a baseline to enhance the development of a comprehensive X-to-multi-view (X2mv) model through the randomly dropping and combining conditions. Finally, to alleviate the overfitting problem caused by limited high-quality data, we propose the "Shuffle View" data augmentation technique, thus significantly expanding the training data by several magnitudes. Experiments demonstrate the performance and versatility of our MV-AR, which consistently generates consistent multi-view images across a range of conditions and performs on par with leading diffusion-based multi-view image generation models. Code and models will be released at https://github.com/MILab-PKU/MVAR.

Autoregressive models, such as the GPT family, use a fixed order, usually left-to-right, to generate sequences. However, this is not a necessity. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and show that by simply adding a positional encoding for the output, this order can be modulated on-the-fly per-sample which offers key advantageous properties. It allows for the sampling of and conditioning on arbitrary subsets of tokens, and it also allows sampling in one shot multiple tokens dynamically according to a rejection strategy, leading to a sub-linear number of model evaluations. We evaluate our method across various domains, including language modeling, path-solving, and aircraft vertical rate prediction, decreasing the number of steps required for generation by an order of magnitude.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

Subject-driven generation is a critical task in creative AI; yet current state-of-the-art methods present a stark trade-off. They either rely on computationally expensive, per-subject fine-tuning, sacrificing efficiency and zero-shot capability, or employ feed-forward architectures built on diffusion models, which are inherently plagued by slow inference speeds. Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models are renowned for their rapid sampling speeds and strong generative quality, making them an ideal yet underexplored foundation for resolving this tension. To bridge this gap, we introduce EchoGen, a pioneering framework that empowers VAR models with subject-driven generation capabilities. The core design of EchoGen is an effective dual-path injection strategy that disentangles a subject's high-level semantic identity from its low-level fine-grained details, enabling enhanced controllability and fidelity. We employ a semantic encoder to extract the subject's abstract identity, which is injected through decoupled cross-attention to guide the overall composition. Concurrently, a content encoder captures intricate visual details, which are integrated via a multi-modal attention mechanism to ensure high-fidelity texture and structural preservation. To the best of our knowledge, EchoGen is the first feed-forward subject-driven framework built upon VAR models. Both quantitative and qualitative results substantiate our design, demonstrating that EchoGen achieves subject fidelity and image quality comparable to state-of-the-art diffusion-based methods with significantly lower sampling latency. Code and models will be released soon.

We present RigAnything, a novel autoregressive transformer-based model, which makes 3D assets rig-ready by probabilistically generating joints, skeleton topologies, and assigning skinning weights in a template-free manner. Unlike most existing auto-rigging methods, which rely on predefined skeleton template and are limited to specific categories like humanoid, RigAnything approaches the rigging problem in an autoregressive manner, iteratively predicting the next joint based on the global input shape and the previous prediction. While autoregressive models are typically used to generate sequential data, RigAnything extends their application to effectively learn and represent skeletons, which are inherently tree structures. To achieve this, we organize the joints in a breadth-first search (BFS) order, enabling the skeleton to be defined as a sequence of 3D locations and the parent index. Furthermore, our model improves the accuracy of position prediction by leveraging diffusion modeling, ensuring precise and consistent placement of joints within the hierarchy. This formulation allows the autoregressive model to efficiently capture both spatial and hierarchical relationships within the skeleton. Trained end-to-end on both RigNet and Objaverse datasets, RigAnything demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse object types, including humanoids, quadrupeds, marine creatures, insects, and many more, surpassing prior methods in quality, robustness, generalizability, and efficiency. Please check our website for more details: https://www.liuisabella.com/RigAnything.

This paper introduces Mamba4Cast, a zero-shot foundation model for time series forecasting. Based on the Mamba architecture and inspired by Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), Mamba4Cast generalizes robustly across diverse time series tasks without the need for dataset specific fine-tuning. Mamba4Cast's key innovation lies in its ability to achieve strong zero-shot performance on real-world datasets while having much lower inference times than time series foundation models based on the transformer architecture. Trained solely on synthetic data, the model generates forecasts for entire horizons in a single pass, outpacing traditional auto-regressive approaches. Our experiments show that Mamba4Cast performs competitively against other state-of-the-art foundation models in various data sets while scaling significantly better with the prediction length. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/automl/Mamba4Cast.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Recent advancements in multi-modal large language models have propelled the development of joint probabilistic models capable of both image understanding and generation. However, we have identified that recent methods inevitably suffer from loss of image information during understanding task, due to either image discretization or diffusion denoising steps. To address this issue, we propose a novel Multi-Modal Auto-Regressive (MMAR) probabilistic modeling framework. Unlike discretization line of method, MMAR takes in continuous-valued image tokens to avoid information loss. Differing from diffusion-based approaches, we disentangle the diffusion process from auto-regressive backbone model by employing a light-weight diffusion head on top each auto-regressed image patch embedding. In this way, when the model transits from image generation to understanding through text generation, the backbone model's hidden representation of the image is not limited to the last denoising step. To successfully train our method, we also propose a theoretically proven technique that addresses the numerical stability issue and a training strategy that balances the generation and understanding task goals. Through extensive evaluations on 18 image understanding benchmarks, MMAR demonstrates much more superior performance than other joint multi-modal models, matching the method that employs pretrained CLIP vision encoder, meanwhile being able to generate high quality images at the same time. We also showed that our method is scalable with larger data and model size.

Large language models (LLMs) often demonstrate inconsistencies with human preferences. Previous research gathered human preference data and then aligned the pre-trained models using reinforcement learning or instruction tuning, the so-called finetuning step. In contrast, aligning frozen LLMs without any extra data is more appealing. This work explores the potential of the latter setting. We discover that by integrating self-evaluation and rewind mechanisms, unaligned LLMs can directly produce responses consistent with human preferences via self-boosting. We introduce a novel inference method, Rewindable Auto-regressive INference (RAIN), that allows pre-trained LLMs to evaluate their own generation and use the evaluation results to guide backward rewind and forward generation for AI safety. Notably, RAIN operates without the need of extra data for model alignment and abstains from any training, gradient computation, or parameter updates; during the self-evaluation phase, the model receives guidance on which human preference to align with through a fixed-template prompt, eliminating the need to modify the initial prompt. Experimental results evaluated by GPT-4 and humans demonstrate the effectiveness of RAIN: on the HH dataset, RAIN improves the harmlessness rate of LLaMA 30B over vanilla inference from 82% to 97%, while maintaining the helpfulness rate. Under the leading adversarial attack llm-attacks on Vicuna 33B, RAIN establishes a new defense baseline by reducing the attack success rate from 94% to 19%.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

In this paper we construct an inferential procedure for Granger causality in high-dimensional non-stationary vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Our method does not require knowledge of the order of integration of the time series under consideration. We augment the VAR with at least as many lags as the suspected maximum order of integration, an approach which has been proven to be robust against the presence of unit roots in low dimensions. We prove that we can restrict the augmentation to only the variables of interest for the testing, thereby making the approach suitable for high dimensions. We combine this lag augmentation with a post-double-selection procedure in which a set of initial penalized regressions is performed to select the relevant variables for both the Granger causing and caused variables. We then establish uniform asymptotic normality of a second-stage regression involving only the selected variables. Finite sample simulations show good performance, an application to investigate the (predictive) causes and effects of economic uncertainty illustrates the need to allow for unknown orders of integration.

This work introduces a general code generation framework that incorporates infilling operations into auto-regressive decoding. Our approach capitalizes on the observation that recent code language models with infilling capabilities can perform self-infilling: whereas infilling operations aim to fill in the middle based on a predefined prefix and suffix, self-infilling sequentially generates both such surrounding context and the infilled content. We utilize this feature to develop an infilling-augmented decoding process that facilitates non-monotonic generation. This approach allows for postponing the generation of uncertain code snippets until a definitive suffix is established, leading to improved control over the generation sequence. In addition, it facilitates a looping mechanism, which can iteratively update and synchronize each piece of generation in a cyclic manner. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate that our proposed decoding process is effective in enhancing regularity and quality across several code generation benchmarks.

We present an approach to pose object recognition as next token prediction. The idea is to apply a language decoder that auto-regressively predicts the text tokens from image embeddings to form labels. To ground this prediction process in auto-regression, we customize a non-causal attention mask for the decoder, incorporating two key features: modeling tokens from different labels to be independent, and treating image tokens as a prefix. This masking mechanism inspires an efficient method - one-shot sampling - to simultaneously sample tokens of multiple labels in parallel and rank generated labels by their probabilities during inference. To further enhance the efficiency, we propose a simple strategy to construct a compact decoder by simply discarding the intermediate blocks of a pretrained language model. This approach yields a decoder that matches the full model's performance while being notably more efficient. The code is available at https://github.com/kaiyuyue/nxtp

Non-Autoregressive generation is a sequence generation paradigm, which removes the dependency between target tokens. It could efficiently reduce the text generation latency with parallel decoding in place of token-by-token sequential decoding. However, due to the known multi-modality problem, Non-Autoregressive (NAR) models significantly under-perform Auto-regressive (AR) models on various language generation tasks. Among the NAR models, BANG is the first large-scale pre-training model on English un-labeled raw text corpus. It considers different generation paradigms as its pre-training tasks including Auto-regressive (AR), Non-Autoregressive (NAR), and semi-Non-Autoregressive (semi-NAR) information flow with multi-stream strategy. It achieves state-of-the-art performance without any distillation techniques. However, AR distillation has been shown to be a very effective solution for improving NAR performance. In this paper, we propose a novel self-paced mixed distillation method to further improve the generation quality of BANG. Firstly, we propose the mixed distillation strategy based on the AR stream knowledge. Secondly, we encourage the model to focus on the samples with the same modality by self-paced learning. The proposed self-paced mixed distillation algorithm improves the generation quality and has no influence on the inference latency. We carry out extensive experiments on summarization and question generation tasks to validate the effectiveness. To further illustrate the commercial value of our approach, we conduct experiments on three generation tasks in real-world advertisements applications. Experimental results on commercial data show the effectiveness of the proposed model. Compared with BANG, it achieves significant BLEU score improvement. On the other hand, compared with auto-regressive generation method, it achieves more than 7x speedup.

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks while benefiting from better computational scalability. However, building ensembles of neural networks is a challenging task because, in addition to choosing the right neural architecture or hyperparameters for each member of the ensemble, there is an added cost of training each model. We propose AutoDEUQ, an automated approach for generating an ensemble of deep neural networks. Our approach leverages joint neural architecture and hyperparameter search to generate ensembles. We use the law of total variance to decompose the predictive variance of deep ensembles into aleatoric (data) and epistemic (model) uncertainties. We show that AutoDEUQ outperforms probabilistic backpropagation, Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, distribution-free ensembles, and hyper ensemble methods on a number of regression benchmarks.

Auto-regressive decoding makes the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) time-consuming. We propose a simple framework, EAGLE (Extrapolation Algorithm for Greater Language-model Efficiency), for lossless acceleration. Unlike traditional speculative sampling methods, EAGLE operates the drafting process auto-regressively at the more regular (second-top-layer) feature level and addresses the sampling uncertainty issues in the next-feature prediction problems by integrating tokens from one time step ahead. The acceleration provided by EAGLE is lossless: it involves no fine-tuning of the target LLM, and the generated text maintains the same distribution as that of vanilla auto-regressive decoding. As of the submission of this paper, EAGLE is the fastest known framework within the speculative sampling family. On MT-bench, EAGLE is 3x faster than vanilla decoding, 2x faster than Lookahead, and 1.6x faster than Medusa. Using gpt-fast, EAGLE attains on average 160 tokens/s with LLaMA2-Chat 13B on a single RTX 3090 GPU, compared to 24 tokens/s of Huggingface's implementations.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is widely used for compressing a teacher model to reduce its inference cost and memory footprint, by training a smaller student model. However, current KD methods for auto-regressive sequence models suffer from distribution mismatch between output sequences seen during training and those generated by the student during inference. To address this issue, we introduce Generalized Knowledge Distillation (GKD). Instead of solely relying on a fixed set of output sequences, GKD trains the student on its self-generated output sequences by leveraging feedback from the teacher on such sequences. Unlike supervised KD approaches, GKD also offers the flexibility to employ alternative loss functions between the student and teacher, which can be useful when the student lacks the expressivity to mimic the teacher's distribution. Furthermore, GKD facilitates the seamless integration of distillation with RL fine-tuning (RLHF). We demonstrate the efficacy of GKD for distilling auto-regressive language models on summarization, translation, and arithmetic reasoning tasks, and task-agnostic distillation for instruction-tuning.

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and promising performance. In this work, we present TTS-VAR, the first general test-time scaling framework for visual auto-regressive (VAR) models, modeling the generation process as a path searching problem. To dynamically balance computational efficiency with exploration capacity, we first introduce an adaptive descending batch size schedule throughout the causal generation process. Besides, inspired by VAR's hierarchical coarse-to-fine multi-scale generation, our framework integrates two key components: (i) At coarse scales, we observe that generated tokens are hard for evaluation, possibly leading to erroneous acceptance of inferior samples or rejection of superior samples. Noticing that the coarse scales contain sufficient structural information, we propose clustering-based diversity search. It preserves structural variety through semantic feature clustering, enabling later selection on samples with higher potential. (ii) In fine scales, resampling-based potential selection prioritizes promising candidates using potential scores, which are defined as reward functions incorporating multi-scale generation history. Experiments on the powerful VAR model Infinity show a notable 8.7% GenEval score improvement (from 0.69 to 0.75). Key insights reveal that early-stage structural features effectively influence final quality, and resampling efficacy varies across generation scales. Code is available at https://github.com/ali-vilab/TTS-VAR.

Auto-regressive large language models (LLMs) have yielded impressive performance in many real-world tasks. However, the new paradigm of these LLMs also exposes novel threats. In this paper, we explore their vulnerability to inference cost attacks, where a malicious user crafts Engorgio prompts to intentionally increase the computation cost and latency of the inference process. We design Engorgio, a novel methodology, to efficiently generate adversarial Engorgio prompts to affect the target LLM's service availability. Engorgio has the following two technical contributions. (1) We employ a parameterized distribution to track LLMs' prediction trajectory. (2) Targeting the auto-regressive nature of LLMs' inference process, we propose novel loss functions to stably suppress the appearance of the <EOS> token, whose occurrence will interrupt the LLM's generation process. We conduct extensive experiments on 13 open-sourced LLMs with parameters ranging from 125M to 30B. The results show that Engorgio prompts can successfully induce LLMs to generate abnormally long outputs (i.e., roughly 2-13times longer to reach 90%+ of the output length limit) in a white-box scenario and our real-world experiment demonstrates Engergio's threat to LLM service with limited computing resources. The code is accessible at https://github.com/jianshuod/Engorgio-prompt.

We propose a general and efficient framework to control auto-regressive generation models with NeurAlly-Decomposed Oracle (NADO). Given a pre-trained base language model and a sequence-level boolean oracle function, we propose to decompose the oracle function into token-level guidance to steer the base model in text generation. Specifically, the token-level guidance is approximated by a neural model trained with examples sampled from the base model, demanding no additional auxiliary labeled data. Based on posterior regularization, we present the closed-form optimal solution to incorporate the token-level guidance into the base model for controllable generation. We further provide a theoretical analysis of how the approximation quality of NADO affects the controllable generation results. Experiments conducted on two applications: (1) text generation with lexical constraints and (2) machine translation with formality control demonstrate that our framework efficiently guides the base model towards the given oracle while maintaining high generation quality.

The evaluation of machine learning models using human-labeled validation data can be expensive and time-consuming. AI-labeled synthetic data can be used to decrease the number of human annotations required for this purpose in a process called autoevaluation. We suggest efficient and statistically principled algorithms for this purpose that improve sample efficiency while remaining unbiased. These algorithms increase the effective human-labeled sample size by up to 50% on experiments with GPT-4.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

Imagine a developer who can only change their last line of code, how often would they have to start writing a function from scratch before it is correct? Auto-regressive models for code generation from natural language have a similar limitation: they do not easily allow reconsidering earlier tokens generated. We introduce CodeFusion, a pre-trained diffusion code generation model that addresses this limitation by iteratively denoising a complete program conditioned on the encoded natural language. We evaluate CodeFusion on the task of natural language to code generation for Bash, Python, and Microsoft Excel conditional formatting (CF) rules. Experiments show that CodeFusion (75M parameters) performs on par with state-of-the-art auto-regressive systems (350M-175B parameters) in top-1 accuracy and outperforms them in top-3 and top-5 accuracy due to its better balance in diversity versus quality.

Pre-training has been investigated to improve the efficiency and performance of training neural operators in data-scarce settings. However, it is largely in its infancy due to the inherent complexity and diversity, such as long trajectories, multiple scales and varying dimensions of partial differential equations (PDEs) data. In this paper, we present a new auto-regressive denoising pre-training strategy, which allows for more stable and efficient pre-training on PDE data and generalizes to various downstream tasks. Moreover, by designing a flexible and scalable model architecture based on Fourier attention, we can easily scale up the model for large-scale pre-training. We train our PDE foundation model with up to 0.5B parameters on 10+ PDE datasets with more than 100k trajectories. Extensive experiments show that we achieve SOTA on these benchmarks and validate the strong generalizability of our model to significantly enhance performance on diverse downstream PDE tasks like 3D data. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPOT.

Camera trajectory design plays a crucial role in video production, serving as a fundamental tool for conveying directorial intent and enhancing visual storytelling. In cinematography, Directors of Photography meticulously craft camera movements to achieve expressive and intentional framing. However, existing methods for camera trajectory generation remain limited: Traditional approaches rely on geometric optimization or handcrafted procedural systems, while recent learning-based methods often inherit structural biases or lack textual alignment, constraining creative synthesis. In this work, we introduce an auto-regressive model inspired by the expertise of Directors of Photography to generate artistic and expressive camera trajectories. We first introduce DataDoP, a large-scale multi-modal dataset containing 29K real-world shots with free-moving camera trajectories, depth maps, and detailed captions in specific movements, interaction with the scene, and directorial intent. Thanks to the comprehensive and diverse database, we further train an auto-regressive, decoder-only Transformer for high-quality, context-aware camera movement generation based on text guidance and RGBD inputs, named GenDoP. Extensive experiments demonstrate that compared to existing methods, GenDoP offers better controllability, finer-grained trajectory adjustments, and higher motion stability. We believe our approach establishes a new standard for learning-based cinematography, paving the way for future advancements in camera control and filmmaking. Our project website: https://kszpxxzmc.github.io/GenDoP/.

Existing video frame interpolation (VFI) methods often adopt a frame-centric approach, processing videos as independent short segments (e.g., triplets), which leads to temporal inconsistencies and motion artifacts. To overcome this, we propose a holistic, video-centric paradigm named Local Diffusion Forcing for Video Frame Interpolation (LDF-VFI). Our framework is built upon an auto-regressive diffusion transformer that models the entire video sequence to ensure long-range temporal coherence. To mitigate error accumulation inherent in auto-regressive generation, we introduce a novel skip-concatenate sampling strategy that effectively maintains temporal stability. Furthermore, LDF-VFI incorporates sparse, local attention and tiled VAE encoding, a combination that not only enables efficient processing of long sequences but also allows generalization to arbitrary spatial resolutions (e.g., 4K) at inference without retraining. An enhanced conditional VAE decoder, which leverages multi-scale features from the input video, further improves reconstruction fidelity. Empirically, LDF-VFI achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging long-sequence benchmarks, demonstrating superior per-frame quality and temporal consistency, especially in scenes with large motion. The source code is available at https://github.com/xypeng9903/LDF-VFI.

Real-time talking avatar generation requires low latency and minute-level temporal stability. Autoregressive (AR) forcing enables streaming inference but suffers from exposure bias, which causes errors to accumulate and become irreversible over long rollouts. In contrast, full-sequence diffusion transformers mitigate drift but remain computationally prohibitive for real-time long-form synthesis. We present AvatarForcing, a one-step streaming diffusion framework that denoises a fixed local-future window with heterogeneous noise levels and emits one clean block per step under constant per-step cost. To stabilize unbounded streams, the method introduces dual-anchor temporal forcing: a style anchor that re-indexes RoPE to maintain a fixed relative position with respect to the active window and applies anchor-audio zero-padding, and a temporal anchor that reuses recently emitted clean blocks to ensure smooth transitions. Real-time one-step inference is enabled by two-stage streaming distillation with offline ODE backfill and distribution matching. Experiments on standard benchmarks and a new 400-video long-form benchmark show strong visual quality and lip synchronization at 34 ms/frame using a 1.3B-parameter student model for realtime streaming. Our page is available at: https://cuiliyuan121.github.io/AvatarForcing/

Large Language Models (LLMs), benefiting from the auto-regressive modelling approach performed on massive unannotated texts corpora, demonstrates powerful perceptual and reasoning capabilities. However, as for extending auto-regressive modelling to multi-modal scenarios to build Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs), there lies a great difficulty that the image information is processed in the LMM as continuous visual embeddings, which cannot obtain discrete supervised labels for classification. In this paper, we successfully perform multi-modal auto-regressive modeling with a unified objective for the first time. Specifically, we propose the concept of visual words, which maps the visual features to probability distributions over LLM's vocabulary, providing supervision information for visual modelling. We further explore the distribution of visual features in the semantic space within LMM and the possibility of using text embeddings to represent visual information. Experimental results and ablation studies on 5 VQA tasks and 4 benchmark toolkits validate the powerful performance of our proposed approach.

We introduce AutoGluon-TimeSeries - an open-source AutoML library for probabilistic time series forecasting. Focused on ease of use and robustness, AutoGluon-TimeSeries enables users to generate accurate point and quantile forecasts with just 3 lines of Python code. Built on the design philosophy of AutoGluon, AutoGluon-TimeSeries leverages ensembles of diverse forecasting models to deliver high accuracy within a short training time. AutoGluon-TimeSeries combines both conventional statistical models, machine-learning based forecasting approaches, and ensembling techniques. In our evaluation on 29 benchmark datasets, AutoGluon-TimeSeries demonstrates strong empirical performance, outperforming a range of forecasting methods in terms of both point and quantile forecast accuracy, and often even improving upon the best-in-hindsight combination of prior methods.

Auto-regressive Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable performance across different domains such as vision and language processing. However, due to sequential processing through a stack of transformer layers, autoregressive decoding faces significant computation/latency challenges, particularly in resource-constrained environments like mobile and edge devices. Existing approaches in literature that aim to improve latency via skipping layers have two distinct flavors - 1) Early exit, and 2) Input-agnostic heuristics where tokens exit at pre-determined layers irrespective of input sequence. Both the above strategies have limitations - the former cannot be applied to handle KV Caching necessary for speed-ups in modern framework and the latter does not capture the variation in layer importance across tasks or more generally, across input sequences. To address both limitations, we propose FiRST, an algorithm that reduces inference latency by using layer-specific routers to select a subset of transformer layers adaptively for each input sequence - the prompt (during the prefill stage) decides which layers will be skipped during decoding. FiRST preserves compatibility with KV caching enabling faster inference while being quality-aware. FiRST is model-agnostic and can be easily enabled on any pre-trained LLM. Our approach reveals that input adaptivity is critical - indeed, different task-specific middle layers play a crucial role in evolving hidden representations depending on tasks. Extensive experiments show that FiRST significantly reduces latency while outperforming other layer selection strategies in quality metics. It retains competitive performance to base model (without layer skipping) and in some cases, even improves upon it. FiRST is thus a promising and efficient solution for LLM deployment in low-resource environments.

In this paper, we present NUWA-Infinity, a generative model for infinite visual synthesis, which is defined as the task of generating arbitrarily-sized high-resolution images or long-duration videos. An autoregressive over autoregressive generation mechanism is proposed to deal with this variable-size generation task, where a global patch-level autoregressive model considers the dependencies between patches, and a local token-level autoregressive model considers dependencies between visual tokens within each patch. A Nearby Context Pool (NCP) is introduced to cache-related patches already generated as the context for the current patch being generated, which can significantly save computation costs without sacrificing patch-level dependency modeling. An Arbitrary Direction Controller (ADC) is used to decide suitable generation orders for different visual synthesis tasks and learn order-aware positional embeddings. Compared to DALL-E, Imagen and Parti, NUWA-Infinity can generate high-resolution images with arbitrary sizes and support long-duration video generation additionally. Compared to NUWA, which also covers images and videos, NUWA-Infinity has superior visual synthesis capabilities in terms of resolution and variable-size generation. The GitHub link is https://github.com/microsoft/NUWA. The homepage link is https://nuwa-infinity.microsoft.com.

Current auto-regressive models can generate high-quality, topologically precise meshes; however, they necessitate thousands-or even tens of thousands-of next-token predictions during inference, resulting in substantial latency. We introduce XSpecMesh, a quality-preserving acceleration method for auto-regressive mesh generation models. XSpecMesh employs a lightweight, multi-head speculative decoding scheme to predict multiple tokens in parallel within a single forward pass, thereby accelerating inference. We further propose a verification and resampling strategy: the backbone model verifies each predicted token and resamples any tokens that do not meet the quality criteria. In addition, we propose a distillation strategy that trains the lightweight decoding heads by distilling from the backbone model, encouraging their prediction distributions to align and improving the success rate of speculative predictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves a 1.7x speedup without sacrificing generation quality. Our code will be released.

Autoregressive video diffusion models hold promise for world simulation but are vulnerable to exposure bias arising from the train-test mismatch. While recent works address this via post-training, they typically rely on a bidirectional teacher model or online discriminator. To achieve an end-to-end solution, we introduce Resampling Forcing, a teacher-free framework that enables training autoregressive video models from scratch and at scale. Central to our approach is a self-resampling scheme that simulates inference-time model errors on history frames during training. Conditioned on these degraded histories, a sparse causal mask enforces temporal causality while enabling parallel training with frame-level diffusion loss. To facilitate efficient long-horizon generation, we further introduce history routing, a parameter-free mechanism that dynamically retrieves the top-k most relevant history frames for each query. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves performance comparable to distillation-based baselines while exhibiting superior temporal consistency on longer videos owing to native-length training.

Efficient hyperparameter or architecture search methods have shown remarkable results, but each of them is only applicable to searching for either hyperparameters (HPs) or architectures. In this work, we propose a unified pipeline, AutoHAS, to efficiently search for both architectures and hyperparameters. AutoHAS learns to alternately update the shared network weights and a reinforcement learning (RL) controller, which learns the probability distribution for the architecture candidates and HP candidates. A temporary weight is introduced to store the updated weight from the selected HPs (by the controller), and a validation accuracy based on this temporary weight serves as a reward to update the controller. In experiments, we show AutoHAS is efficient and generalizable to different search spaces, baselines and datasets. In particular, AutoHAS can improve the accuracy over popular network architectures, such as ResNet and EfficientNet, on CIFAR-10/100, ImageNet, and four more other datasets.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling departs from the next-token prediction paradigm of traditional Autoregressive (AR) models through next-scale prediction, enabling high-quality image generation. However, the VAR paradigm suffers from sharply increased computational complexity and running time at large-scale steps. Although existing acceleration methods reduce runtime for large-scale steps, but rely on manual step selection and overlook the varying importance of different stages in the generation process. To address this challenge, we present StageVAR, a systematic study and stage-aware acceleration framework for VAR models. Our analysis shows that early steps are critical for preserving semantic and structural consistency and should remain intact, while later steps mainly refine details and can be pruned or approximated for acceleration. Building on these insights, StageVAR introduces a plug-and-play acceleration strategy that exploits semantic irrelevance and low-rank properties in late-stage computations, without requiring additional training. Our proposed StageVAR achieves up to 3.4x speedup with only a 0.01 drop on GenEval and a 0.26 decrease on DPG, consistently outperforming existing acceleration baselines. These results highlight stage-aware design as a powerful principle for efficient visual autoregressive image generation.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) generative models have produced increasingly powerful systems for media synthesis. Among them, next-scale prediction has emerged as a popular paradigm, where models generate images in a coarse-to-fine manner. However, scale-wise AR models suffer from exposure bias, which undermines generation quality. We identify two primary causes of this issue: (1) train-test mismatch, where the model must rely on its own imperfect predictions during inference, and (2) imbalance in scale-wise learning difficulty, where certain scales exhibit disproportionately higher optimization complexity. Through a comprehensive analysis of training dynamics, we propose Self-Autoregressive Refinement (SAR) to address these limitations. SAR introduces a Stagger-Scale Rollout (SSR) mechanism that performs lightweight autoregressive rollouts to expose the model to its own intermediate predictions, thereby aligning train-test patterns, and a complementary Contrastive Student-Forcing Loss (CSFL) that provides adequate supervision for self-generated contexts to ensure stable training. Experimental results show that applying SAR to pretrained AR models consistently improves generation quality with minimal computational overhead. For instance, SAR yields a 5.2% FID reduction on FlexVAR-d16 trained on ImageNet 256 within 10 epochs (5 hours on 32xA100 GPUs). Given its efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness, we expect SAR to serve as a reliable post-training method for visual autoregressive generation.

Existing DiT-based audio-driven avatar generation methods have achieved considerable progress, yet their broader application is constrained by limitations such as high computational overhead and the inability to synthesize long-duration videos. Autoregressive methods address this problem by applying block-wise autoregressive diffusion methods. However, these methods suffer from the problem of error accumulation and quality degradation. To address this, we propose JoyAvatar, an audio-driven autoregressive model capable of real-time inference and infinite-length video generation with the following contributions: (1) Progressive Step Bootstrapping (PSB), which allocates more denoising steps to initial frames to stabilize generation and reduce error accumulation; (2) Motion Condition Injection (MCI), enhancing temporal coherence by injecting noise-corrupted previous frames as motion condition; and (3) Unbounded RoPE via Cache-Resetting (URCR), enabling infinite-length generation through dynamic positional encoding. Our 1.3B-parameter causal model achieves 16 FPS on a single GPU and achieves competitive results in visual quality, temporal consistency, and lip synchronization.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. To extend the generation length and facilitate real-world applications, a majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on the last frame(s) of the previous clip. However, existing autoregressive VDMs are highly inefficient and redundant: The model must re-compute all the conditional frames that are overlapped between adjacent clips. This issue is exacerbated when the conditional frames are extended autoregressively to provide the model with long-term context. In such cases, the computational demands increase significantly (i.e., with a quadratic complexity w.r.t. the autoregression step). In this paper, we propose Ca2-VDM, an efficient autoregressive VDM with Causal generation and Cache sharing. For causal generation, it introduces unidirectional feature computation, which ensures that the cache of conditional frames can be precomputed in previous autoregression steps and reused in every subsequent step, eliminating redundant computations. For cache sharing, it shares the cache across all denoising steps to avoid the huge cache storage cost. Extensive experiments demonstrated that our Ca2-VDM achieves state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative video generation results and significantly improves the generation speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/CausalCache-VDM

VAR is a new generation paradigm that employs 'next-scale prediction' as opposed to 'next-token prediction'. This innovative transformation enables auto-regressive (AR) transformers to rapidly learn visual distributions and achieve robust generalization. However, the original VAR model is constrained to class-conditioned synthesis, relying solely on textual captions for guidance. In this paper, we introduce VAR-CLIP, a novel text-to-image model that integrates Visual Auto-Regressive techniques with the capabilities of CLIP. The VAR-CLIP framework encodes captions into text embeddings, which are then utilized as textual conditions for image generation. To facilitate training on extensive datasets, such as ImageNet, we have constructed a substantial image-text dataset leveraging BLIP2. Furthermore, we delve into the significance of word positioning within CLIP for the purpose of caption guidance. Extensive experiments confirm VAR-CLIP's proficiency in generating fantasy images with high fidelity, textual congruence, and aesthetic excellence. Our project page are https://github.com/daixiangzi/VAR-CLIP

The "one-shot" technique represents a distinct and sophisticated aesthetic in filmmaking. However, its practical realization is often hindered by prohibitive costs and complex real-world constraints. Although emerging video generation models offer a virtual alternative, existing approaches typically rely on naive clip concatenation, which frequently fails to maintain visual smoothness and temporal coherence. In this paper, we introduce DreaMontage, a comprehensive framework designed for arbitrary frame-guided generation, capable of synthesizing seamless, expressive, and long-duration one-shot videos from diverse user-provided inputs. To achieve this, we address the challenge through three primary dimensions. (i) We integrate a lightweight intermediate-conditioning mechanism into the DiT architecture. By employing an Adaptive Tuning strategy that effectively leverages base training data, we unlock robust arbitrary-frame control capabilities. (ii) To enhance visual fidelity and cinematic expressiveness, we curate a high-quality dataset and implement a Visual Expression SFT stage. In addressing critical issues such as subject motion rationality and transition smoothness, we apply a Tailored DPO scheme, which significantly improves the success rate and usability of the generated content. (iii) To facilitate the production of extended sequences, we design a Segment-wise Auto-Regressive (SAR) inference strategy that operates in a memory-efficient manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves visually striking and seamlessly coherent one-shot effects while maintaining computational efficiency, empowering users to transform fragmented visual materials into vivid, cohesive one-shot cinematic experiences.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

We present GameNGen, the first game engine powered entirely by a neural model that enables real-time interaction with a complex environment over long trajectories at high quality. GameNGen can interactively simulate the classic game DOOM at over 20 frames per second on a single TPU. Next frame prediction achieves a PSNR of 29.4, comparable to lossy JPEG compression. Human raters are only slightly better than random chance at distinguishing short clips of the game from clips of the simulation. GameNGen is trained in two phases: (1) an RL-agent learns to play the game and the training sessions are recorded, and (2) a diffusion model is trained to produce the next frame, conditioned on the sequence of past frames and actions. Conditioning augmentations enable stable auto-regressive generation over long trajectories.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Existing autoregressive (AR) image generative models use a token-by-token generation schema. That is, they predict a per-token probability distribution and sample the next token from that distribution. The main challenge is how to model the complex distribution of high-dimensional tokens. Previous methods either are too simplistic to fit the distribution or result in slow generation speed. Instead of fitting the distribution of the whole tokens, we explore using a AR model to generate each token in a feature-by-feature way, i.e., taking the generated features as input and generating the next feature. Based on that, we propose ARINAR (AR-in-AR), a bi-level AR model. The outer AR layer take previous tokens as input, predicts a condition vector z for the next token. The inner layer, conditional on z, generates features of the next token autoregressively. In this way, the inner layer only needs to model the distribution of a single feature, for example, using a simple Gaussian Mixture Model. On the ImageNet 256x256 image generation task, ARINAR-B with 213M parameters achieves an FID of 2.75, which is comparable to the state-of-the-art MAR-B model (FID=2.31), while five times faster than the latter.

Pre-trained models have achieved state-of-the-art results in various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Recent works such as T5 and GPT-3 have shown that scaling up pre-trained language models can improve their generalization abilities. Particularly, the GPT-3 model with 175 billion parameters shows its strong task-agnostic zero-shot/few-shot learning capabilities. Despite their success, these large-scale models are trained on plain texts without introducing knowledge such as linguistic knowledge and world knowledge. In addition, most large-scale models are trained in an auto-regressive way. As a result, this kind of traditional fine-tuning approach demonstrates relatively weak performance when solving downstream language understanding tasks. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a unified framework named ERNIE 3.0 for pre-training large-scale knowledge enhanced models. It fuses auto-regressive network and auto-encoding network, so that the trained model can be easily tailored for both natural language understanding and generation tasks with zero-shot learning, few-shot learning or fine-tuning. We trained the model with 10 billion parameters on a 4TB corpus consisting of plain texts and a large-scale knowledge graph. Empirical results show that the model outperforms the state-of-the-art models on 54 Chinese NLP tasks, and its English version achieves the first place on the SuperGLUE benchmark (July 3, 2021), surpassing the human performance by +0.8% (90.6% vs. 89.8%).

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) supports practitioners and researchers with the tedious task of designing machine learning pipelines and has recently achieved substantial success. In this paper, we introduce new AutoML approaches motivated by our winning submission to the second ChaLearn AutoML challenge. We develop PoSH Auto-sklearn, which enables AutoML systems to work well on large datasets under rigid time limits by using a new, simple and meta-feature-free meta-learning technique and by employing a successful bandit strategy for budget allocation. However, PoSH Auto-sklearn introduces even more ways of running AutoML and might make it harder for users to set it up correctly. Therefore, we also go one step further and study the design space of AutoML itself, proposing a solution towards truly hands-free AutoML. Together, these changes give rise to the next generation of our AutoML system, Auto-sklearn 2.0. We verify the improvements by these additions in an extensive experimental study on 39 AutoML benchmark datasets. We conclude the paper by comparing to other popular AutoML frameworks and Auto-sklearn 1.0, reducing the relative error by up to a factor of 4.5, and yielding a performance in 10 minutes that is substantially better than what Auto-sklearn 1.0 achieves within an hour.

Knowledge-intensive language tasks require NLP systems to both provide the correct answer and retrieve supporting evidence for it in a given corpus. Autoregressive language models are emerging as the de-facto standard for generating answers, with newer and more powerful systems emerging at an astonishing pace. In this paper we argue that all this (and future) progress can be directly applied to the retrieval problem with minimal intervention to the models' architecture. Previous work has explored ways to partition the search space into hierarchical structures and retrieve documents by autoregressively generating their unique identifier. In this work we propose an alternative that doesn't force any structure in the search space: using all ngrams in a passage as its possible identifiers. This setup allows us to use an autoregressive model to generate and score distinctive ngrams, that are then mapped to full passages through an efficient data structure. Empirically, we show this not only outperforms prior autoregressive approaches but also leads to an average improvement of at least 10 points over more established retrieval solutions for passage-level retrieval on the KILT benchmark, establishing new state-of-the-art downstream performance on some datasets, while using a considerably lighter memory footprint than competing systems. Code and pre-trained models at https://github.com/facebookresearch/SEAL.

There has been a recent explosion of computer vision models which perform many tasks and are composed of an image encoder (usually a ViT) and an autoregressive decoder (usually a Transformer). However, most of this work simply presents one system and its results, leaving many questions regarding design decisions and trade-offs of such systems unanswered. In this work, we aim to provide such answers. We take a close look at autoregressive decoders for multi-task learning in multimodal computer vision, including classification, captioning, visual question answering, and optical character recognition. Through extensive systematic experiments, we study the effects of task and data mixture, training and regularization hyperparameters, conditioning type and specificity, modality combination, and more. Importantly, we compare these to well-tuned single-task baselines to highlight the cost incurred by multi-tasking. A key finding is that a small decoder learned on top of a frozen pretrained encoder works surprisingly well. We call this setup locked-image tuning with decoder (LiT-decoder). It can be seen as teaching a decoder to interact with a pretrained vision model via natural language.

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

Current autoregressive language models (ARMs) achieve high accuracy but require long token sequences, making them costly. Discrete diffusion language models (DDLMs) enable parallel and flexible generation within a fixed number of steps and have recently emerged for their strong performance in complex reasoning and long-term planning tasks. We present a study exploring hybrid architectures that couple DDLMs with ARMs to assess whether their collaboration can yield complementary benefits. We first examine collaboration in text space, where one model plans the reasoning process and another executes the final answer based on that plan. We then extend this setup to latent-space communication, introducing a learned projector that maps DDLM latents into the ARM's embedding space, potentially bypassing some of the text-generation limitations of diffusion models. We find that shifting DDLM --> ARM communication from text space to latent space yields significant accuracy gains, for example increasing from 27.0% to 54.0% on DART-5 and from 0.0% to 14.0% on AIME24. We also find that combining a DDLM planner with an ARM executor can provide substantial computational savings with little to no impact on accuracy. For example, the latent-space pipeline, using 64 tokens for planning and roughly 5 for execution, surpasses Qwen3.1-7B on DART-5 and AIME, despite Qwen using 44 times more tokens. Overall, our study offers new insights into reasoning with DDLMs and highlights their potential in hybrid architectures.

We introduce STAR, a text-to-image model that employs a scale-wise auto-regressive paradigm. Unlike VAR, which is constrained to class-conditioned synthesis for images up to 256times256, STAR enables text-driven image generation up to 1024times1024 through three key designs. First, we introduce a pre-trained text encoder to extract and adopt representations for textual constraints, enhancing details and generalizability. Second, given the inherent structural correlation across different scales, we leverage 2D Rotary Positional Encoding (RoPE) and tweak it into a normalized version, ensuring consistent interpretation of relative positions across token maps and stabilizing the training process. Third, we observe that simultaneously sampling all tokens within a single scale can disrupt inter-token relationships, leading to structural instability, particularly in high-resolution generation. To address this, we propose a novel stable sampling method that incorporates causal relationships into the sampling process, ensuring both rich details and stable structures. Compared to previous diffusion models and auto-regressive models, STAR surpasses existing benchmarks in fidelity, text-image consistency, and aesthetic quality, requiring just 2.21s for 1024times1024 images on A100. This highlights the potential of auto-regressive methods in high-quality image synthesis, offering new directions for the text-to-image generation.

In the domain of 3D content creation, achieving optimal mesh topology through AI models has long been a pursuit for 3D artists. Previous methods, such as MeshGPT, have explored the generation of ready-to-use 3D objects via mesh auto-regressive techniques. While these methods produce visually impressive results, their reliance on token-by-token predictions in the auto-regressive process leads to several significant limitations. These include extremely slow generation speeds and an uncontrollable number of mesh faces. In this paper, we introduce MeshCraft, a novel framework for efficient and controllable mesh generation, which leverages continuous spatial diffusion to generate discrete triangle faces. Specifically, MeshCraft consists of two core components: 1) a transformer-based VAE that encodes raw meshes into continuous face-level tokens and decodes them back to the original meshes, and 2) a flow-based diffusion transformer conditioned on the number of faces, enabling the generation of high-quality 3D meshes with a predefined number of faces. By utilizing the diffusion model for the simultaneous generation of the entire mesh topology, MeshCraft achieves high-fidelity mesh generation at significantly faster speeds compared to auto-regressive methods. Specifically, MeshCraft can generate an 800-face mesh in just 3.2 seconds (35times faster than existing baselines). Extensive experiments demonstrate that MeshCraft outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in both qualitative and quantitative evaluations on ShapeNet dataset and demonstrates superior performance on Objaverse dataset. Moreover, it integrates seamlessly with existing conditional guidance strategies, showcasing its potential to relieve artists from the time-consuming manual work involved in mesh creation.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

This paper presents Diffusion via Autoregressive models (D-AR), a new paradigm recasting the image diffusion process as a vanilla autoregressive procedure in the standard next-token-prediction fashion. We start by designing the tokenizer that converts images into sequences of discrete tokens, where tokens in different positions can be decoded into different diffusion denoising steps in the pixel space. Thanks to the diffusion properties, these tokens naturally follow a coarse-to-fine order, which directly lends itself to autoregressive modeling. Therefore, we apply standard next-token prediction on these tokens, without modifying any underlying designs (either causal masks or training/inference strategies), and such sequential autoregressive token generation directly mirrors the diffusion procedure in image space. That is, once the autoregressive model generates an increment of tokens, we can directly decode these tokens into the corresponding diffusion denoising step in the streaming manner. Our pipeline naturally reveals several intriguing properties, for example, it supports consistent previews when generating only a subset of tokens and enables zero-shot layout-controlled synthesis. On the standard ImageNet benchmark, our method achieves 2.09 FID using a 775M Llama backbone with 256 discrete tokens. We hope our work can inspire future research on unified autoregressive architectures of visual synthesis, especially with large language models. Code and models will be available at https://github.com/showlab/D-AR

The conventional evaluation protocols on machine learning models rely heavily on a labeled, i.i.d-assumed testing dataset, which is not often present in real world applications. The Automated Model Evaluation (AutoEval) shows an alternative to this traditional workflow, by forming a proximal prediction pipeline of the testing performance without the presence of ground-truth labels. Despite its recent successes, the AutoEval frameworks still suffer from an overconfidence issue, substantial storage and computational cost. In that regard, we propose a novel measure -- Meta-Distribution Energy (MDE) -- that allows the AutoEval framework to be both more efficient and effective. The core of the MDE is to establish a meta-distribution statistic, on the information (energy) associated with individual samples, then offer a smoother representation enabled by energy-based learning. We further provide our theoretical insights by connecting the MDE with the classification loss. We provide extensive experiments across modalities, datasets and different architectural backbones to validate MDE's validity, together with its superiority compared with prior approaches. We also prove MDE's versatility by showing its seamless integration with large-scale models, and easy adaption to learning scenarios with noisy- or imbalanced- labels. Code and data are available: https://github.com/pengr/Energy_AutoEval

Autoregressive (AR) language models generate text one token at a time, even when consecutive tokens are highly predictable given earlier context. We introduce MARS (Mask AutoRegreSsion), a lightweight fine-tuning method that teaches an instruction-tuned AR model to predict multiple tokens per forward pass. MARS adds no architectural modifications, no extra parameters, and produces a single model that can still be called exactly like the original AR model with no performance degradation. Unlike speculative decoding, which maintains a separate draft model alongside the target, or multi-head approaches such as Medusa, which attach additional prediction heads, MARS requires only continued training on existing instruction data. When generating one token per forward pass, MARS matches or exceeds the AR baseline on six standard benchmarks. When allowed to accept multiple tokens per step, it maintains baseline-level accuracy while achieving 1.5-1.7x throughput. We further develop a block-level KV caching strategy for batch inference, achieving up to 1.71x wall-clock speedup over AR with KV cache on Qwen2.5-7B. Finally, MARS supports real-time speed adjustment via confidence thresholding: under high request load, the serving system can increase throughput on the fly without swapping models or restarting, providing a practical latency-quality knob for deployment.

Sequential dependencies present a fundamental bottleneck in deploying large-scale autoregressive models, particularly for real-time applications. While traditional optimization approaches like pruning and quantization often compromise model quality, recent advances in generation-refinement frameworks demonstrate that this trade-off can be significantly mitigated. This survey presents a comprehensive taxonomy of generation-refinement frameworks, analyzing methods across autoregressive sequence tasks. We categorize methods based on their generation strategies (from simple n-gram prediction to sophisticated draft models) and refinement mechanisms (including single-pass verification and iterative approaches). Through systematic analysis of both algorithmic innovations and system-level implementations, we examine deployment strategies across computing environments and explore applications spanning text, images, and speech generation. This systematic examination of both theoretical frameworks and practical implementations provides a foundation for future research in efficient autoregressive decoding.

Scaling Text-to-speech (TTS) to large-scale datasets has been demonstrated as an effective method for improving the diversity and naturalness of synthesized speech. At the high level, previous large-scale TTS models can be categorized into either Auto-regressive (AR) based (e.g., VALL-E) or Non-auto-regressive (NAR) based models (e.g., NaturalSpeech 2/3). Although these works demonstrate good performance, they still have potential weaknesses. For instance, AR-based models are plagued by unstable generation quality and slow generation speed; meanwhile, some NAR-based models need phoneme-level duration alignment information, thereby increasing the complexity of data pre-processing, model design, and loss design. In this work, we build upon our previous publication by implementing a simple and efficient non-autoregressive (NAR) TTS framework, termed SimpleSpeech 2. SimpleSpeech 2 effectively combines the strengths of both autoregressive (AR) and non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, offering the following key advantages: (1) simplified data preparation; (2) straightforward model and loss design; and (3) stable, high-quality generation performance with fast inference speed. Compared to our previous publication, we present ({\romannumeral1}) a detailed analysis of the influence of speech tokenizer and noisy label for TTS performance; ({\romannumeral2}) four distinct types of sentence duration predictors; ({\romannumeral3}) a novel flow-based scalar latent transformer diffusion model. With these improvement, we show a significant improvement in generation performance and generation speed compared to our previous work and other state-of-the-art (SOTA) large-scale TTS models. Furthermore, we show that SimpleSpeech 2 can be seamlessly extended to multilingual TTS by training it on multilingual speech datasets. Demos are available on: {https://dongchaoyang.top/SimpleSpeech2\_demo/}.

Autoregressive patch-based image generation has recently shown competitive results in terms of image quality and scalability. It can also be easily integrated and scaled within Vision-Language models. Nevertheless, autoregressive models require a defined order for patch generation. While a natural order based on the dictation of the words makes sense for text generation, there is no inherent generation order that exists for image generation. Traditionally, a raster-scan order (from top-left to bottom-right) guides autoregressive image generation models. In this paper, we argue that this order is suboptimal, as it fails to respect the causality of the image content: for instance, when conditioned on a visual description of a sunset, an autoregressive model may generate clouds before the sun, even though the color of clouds should depend on the color of the sun and not the inverse. In this work, we show that first by training a model to generate patches in any-given-order, we can infer both the content and the location (order) of each patch during generation. Secondly, we use these extracted orders to finetune the any-given-order model to produce better-quality images. Through our experiments, we show on two datasets that this new generation method produces better images than the traditional raster-scan approach, with similar training costs and no extra annotations.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose TimeDART, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART.

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in text and image generation but suffer from slow generation due to the token-by-token process. We ask an ambitious question: can a pre-trained AR model be adapted to generate outputs in just one or two steps? If successful, this would significantly advance the development and deployment of AR models. We notice that existing works that try to speed up AR generation by generating multiple tokens at once fundamentally cannot capture the output distribution due to the conditional dependencies between tokens, limiting their effectiveness for few-step generation. To address this, we propose Distilled Decoding (DD), which uses flow matching to create a deterministic mapping from Gaussian distribution to the output distribution of the pre-trained AR model. We then train a network to distill this mapping, enabling few-step generation. DD doesn't need the training data of the original AR model, making it more practical.We evaluate DD on state-of-the-art image AR models and present promising results on ImageNet-256. For VAR, which requires 10-step generation, DD enables one-step generation (6.3times speed-up), with an acceptable increase in FID from 4.19 to 9.96. For LlamaGen, DD reduces generation from 256 steps to 1, achieving an 217.8times speed-up with a comparable FID increase from 4.11 to 11.35. In both cases, baseline methods completely fail with FID>100. DD also excels on text-to-image generation, reducing the generation from 256 steps to 2 for LlamaGen with minimal FID increase from 25.70 to 28.95. As the first work to demonstrate the possibility of one-step generation for image AR models, DD challenges the prevailing notion that AR models are inherently slow, and opens up new opportunities for efficient AR generation. The project website is at https://imagination-research.github.io/distilled-decoding.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

Existing approaches to neural machine translation condition each output word on previously generated outputs. We introduce a model that avoids this autoregressive property and produces its outputs in parallel, allowing an order of magnitude lower latency during inference. Through knowledge distillation, the use of input token fertilities as a latent variable, and policy gradient fine-tuning, we achieve this at a cost of as little as 2.0 BLEU points relative to the autoregressive Transformer network used as a teacher. We demonstrate substantial cumulative improvements associated with each of the three aspects of our training strategy, and validate our approach on IWSLT 2016 English-German and two WMT language pairs. By sampling fertilities in parallel at inference time, our non-autoregressive model achieves near-state-of-the-art performance of 29.8 BLEU on WMT 2016 English-Romanian.

We introduce Heptapod, an image autoregressive model that adheres to the foundational principles of language modeling. Heptapod employs causal attention, eliminates reliance on CFG, and eschews the trend of semantic tokenizers. Our key innovation is next 2D distribution prediction: a causal Transformer with reconstruction-focused visual tokenizer, learns to predict the distribution over the entire 2D spatial grid of images at each timestep. This learning objective unifies the sequential modeling of autoregressive framework with the holistic self-supervised learning of masked autoencoding, enabling the model to capture comprehensive image semantics via generative training. On the ImageNet generation benchmark, Heptapod achieves an FID of 2.70, significantly outperforming previous causal autoregressive approaches. We hope our work inspires a principled rethinking of language modeling on visual signals and beyond.

This paper presents a novel generative model for Computer Aided Design (CAD) that 1) represents high-level design concepts of a CAD model as a three-level hierarchical tree of neural codes, from global part arrangement down to local curve geometry; and 2) controls the generation or completion of CAD models by specifying the target design using a code tree. Concretely, a novel variant of a vector quantized VAE with "masked skip connection" extracts design variations as neural codebooks at three levels. Two-stage cascaded auto-regressive transformers learn to generate code trees from incomplete CAD models and then complete CAD models following the intended design. Extensive experiments demonstrate superior performance on conventional tasks such as random generation while enabling novel interaction capabilities on conditional generation tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/samxuxiang/hnc-cad.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

In recent years, masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative approach for generative modeling over discrete domains. Compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), MDMs trade off complexity at training time with flexibility at inference time. At training time, they must learn to solve an exponentially large number of infilling problems, but at inference time, they can decode tokens in essentially arbitrary order. In this work, we closely examine these two competing effects. On the training front, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate that MDMs indeed train on computationally intractable subproblems compared to their autoregressive counterparts. On the inference front, we show that a suitable strategy for adaptively choosing the token decoding order significantly enhances the capabilities of MDMs, allowing them to sidestep hard subproblems. On logic puzzles like Sudoku, we show that adaptive inference can boost solving accuracy in pretrained MDMs from <7% to approx 90%, even outperforming ARMs with 7times as many parameters and that were explicitly trained via teacher forcing to learn the right order of decoding.

Block-diffusion language models offer a promising path toward faster-than-autoregressive generation by combining block-wise autoregressive decoding with within-block parallel denoising. However, in the few-step regime needed for practical acceleration, standard confidence-thresholded decoding is often brittle: aggressive thresholds hurt quality, while conservative thresholds require unnecessary denoising steps. Existing approaches that address this issue either require additional training or incur extra test-time compute. We present S2D2, a training-free self-speculative decoding framework for block-diffusion language models. Our key observation is that a block-diffusion model becomes autoregressive when the block size is reduced to one, allowing the same pretrained model to act as both drafter and verifier. S2D2 inserts a speculative verification step into standard block-diffusion decoding and uses lightweight routing policies to decide when verification is worth its cost. This yields a hybrid decoding trajectory in which diffusion proposes tokens in parallel, while the autoregressive mode acts as a local sequence-level critic. Across three mainstream block-diffusion families, S2D2 consistently improves the accuracy-speed tradeoff over strong confidence-thresholding baselines. On SDAR, we observe up to 4.7times speedup over autoregressive decoding, and up to 1.57times over a tuned dynamic decoding baseline while improving accuracy by up to 4.5 points. On LLaDA2.1-Mini, S2D2 remains complementary to built-in self-correction, including a conservative setting where it is 4.4times faster than the static baseline with slightly higher accuracy.

The extant insurance literature demonstrates a paucity of finite-sample valid prediction intervals of future insurance claims in the regression setting. To address this challenge, this article proposes a new strategy that converts a predictive method in the unsupervised iid (independent identically distributed) setting to a predictive method in the regression setting. In particular, it enables an actuary to obtain infinitely many finite-sample valid prediction intervals in the regression setting.

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

Among adversarial attacks against sequential recommender systems, model extraction attacks represent a method to attack sequential recommendation models without prior knowledge. Existing research has primarily concentrated on the adversary's execution of black-box attacks through data-free model extraction. However, a significant gap remains in the literature concerning the development of surrogate models by adversaries with access to few-shot raw data (10\% even less). That is, the challenge of how to construct a surrogate model with high functional similarity within the context of few-shot data scenarios remains an issue that requires resolution.This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel few-shot model extraction framework against sequential recommenders, which is designed to construct a superior surrogate model with the utilization of few-shot data. The proposed few-shot model extraction framework is comprised of two components: an autoregressive augmentation generation strategy and a bidirectional repair loss-facilitated model distillation procedure. Specifically, to generate synthetic data that closely approximate the distribution of raw data, autoregressive augmentation generation strategy integrates a probabilistic interaction sampler to extract inherent dependencies and a synthesis determinant signal module to characterize user behavioral patterns. Subsequently, bidirectional repair loss, which target the discrepancies between the recommendation lists, is designed as auxiliary loss to rectify erroneous predictions from surrogate models, transferring knowledge from the victim model to the surrogate model effectively. Experiments on three datasets show that the proposed few-shot model extraction framework yields superior surrogate models.

This paper describes the University of Sydney& JD's joint submission of the IWSLT 2021 low resource speech translation task. We participated in the Swahili-English direction and got the best scareBLEU (25.3) score among all the participants. Our constrained system is based on a pipeline framework, i.e. ASR and NMT. We trained our models with the officially provided ASR and MT datasets. The ASR system is based on the open-sourced tool Kaldi and this work mainly explores how to make the most of the NMT models. To reduce the punctuation errors generated by the ASR model, we employ our previous work SlotRefine to train a punctuation correction model. To achieve better translation performance, we explored the most recent effective strategies, including back translation, knowledge distillation, multi-feature reranking and transductive finetuning. For model structure, we tried auto-regressive and non-autoregressive models, respectively. In addition, we proposed two novel pre-train approaches, i.e. de-noising training and bidirectional training to fully exploit the data. Extensive experiments show that adding the above techniques consistently improves the BLEU scores, and the final submission system outperforms the baseline (Transformer ensemble model trained with the original parallel data) by approximately 10.8 BLEU score, achieving the SOTA performance.

This article attempts answering the following problematic: How to model and classify energy consumption profiles over a large distributed territory to optimize the management of buildings' consumption? Doing case-by-case in depth auditing of thousands of buildings would require a massive amount of time and money as well as a significant number of qualified people. Thus, an automated method must be developed to establish a relevant and effective recommendations system. To answer this problematic, pretopology is used to model the sites' consumption profiles and a multi-criterion hierarchical classification algorithm, using the properties of pretopological space, has been developed in a Python library. To evaluate the results, three data sets are used: A generated set of dots of various sizes in a 2D space, a generated set of time series and a set of consumption time series of 400 real consumption sites from a French Energy company. On the point data set, the algorithm is able to identify the clusters of points using their position in space and their size as parameter. On the generated time series, the algorithm is able to identify the time series clusters using Pearson's correlation with an Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) of 1.

Auto-regressive language models factorize sequence probabilities and are trained by minimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) objective. While empirically powerful, a deep theoretical understanding of why this simple objective yields such versatile representations remains elusive. This work introduces a unifying analytical framework using Markov Categories (MCs) to deconstruct the AR generation process and the NLL objective. We model the single-step generation map as a composition of Markov kernels in the category Stoch. This compositional view, when enriched with statistical divergences, allows us to dissect information flow and learned geometry. Our framework makes three main contributions. First, we provide a formal, information-theoretic rationale for the success of modern speculative decoding methods like EAGLE, quantifying the information surplus in hidden states that these methods exploit. Second, we formalize how NLL minimization forces the model to learn not just the next token, but the data's intrinsic conditional stochasticity, a process we analyze using categorical entropy. Third, and most centrally, we prove that NLL training acts as an implicit form of spectral contrastive learning. By analyzing the information geometry of the model's prediction head, we show that NLL implicitly forces the learned representation space to align with the eigenspectrum of a predictive similarity operator, thereby learning a geometrically structured space without explicit contrastive pairs. This compositional and information-geometric perspective reveals the deep structural principles underlying the effectiveness of modern LMs. Project Page: https://github.com/asiresearch/lm-theory

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

We introduce a method to generate temporally coherent human animation from a single image, a video, or a random noise. This problem has been formulated as modeling of an auto-regressive generation, i.e., to regress past frames to decode future frames. However, such unidirectional generation is highly prone to motion drifting over time, generating unrealistic human animation with significant artifacts such as appearance distortion. We claim that bidirectional temporal modeling enforces temporal coherence on a generative network by largely suppressing the motion ambiguity of human appearance. To prove our claim, we design a novel human animation framework using a denoising diffusion model: a neural network learns to generate the image of a person by denoising temporal Gaussian noises whose intermediate results are cross-conditioned bidirectionally between consecutive frames. In the experiments, our method demonstrates strong performance compared to existing unidirectional approaches with realistic temporal coherence.

Recent hybrid video generation models combine autoregressive temporal dynamics with diffusion-based spatial denoising, but their sequential, iterative nature leads to error accumulation and long inference times. In this work, we propose a distillation-based framework for efficient causal video generation that enables high-quality synthesis with extremely limited denoising steps. Our approach builds upon the Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) framework and proposes a novel Adversarial Self-Distillation (ASD) strategy, which aligns the outputs of the student model's n-step denoising process with its (n+1)-step version at the distribution level. This design provides smoother supervision by bridging small intra-student gaps and more informative guidance by combining teacher knowledge with locally consistent student behavior, substantially improving training stability and generation quality in extremely few-step scenarios (e.g., 1-2 steps). In addition, we present a First-Frame Enhancement (FFE) strategy, which allocates more denoising steps to the initial frames to mitigate error propagation while applying larger skipping steps to later frames. Extensive experiments on VBench demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art approaches in both one-step and two-step video generation. Notably, our framework produces a single distilled model that flexibly supports multiple inference-step settings, eliminating the need for repeated re-distillation and enabling efficient, high-quality video synthesis.

Video autoencoders compress videos into compact latent representations for efficient reconstruction, playing a vital role in enhancing the quality and efficiency of video generation. However, existing video autoencoders often entangle spatial and temporal information, limiting their ability to capture temporal consistency and leading to suboptimal performance. To address this, we propose Autoregressive Video Autoencoder (ARVAE), which compresses and reconstructs each frame conditioned on its predecessor in an autoregressive manner, allowing flexible processing of videos with arbitrary lengths. ARVAE introduces a temporal-spatial decoupled representation that combines downsampled flow field for temporal coherence with spatial relative compensation for newly emerged content, achieving high compression efficiency without information loss. Specifically, the encoder compresses the current and previous frames into the temporal motion and spatial supplement, while the decoder reconstructs the original frame from the latent representations given the preceding frame. A multi-stage training strategy is employed to progressively optimize the model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ARVAE achieves superior reconstruction quality with extremely lightweight models and small-scale training data. Moreover, evaluations on video generation tasks highlight its strong potential for downstream applications.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used across various applications, there is a growing need to control text generation to satisfy specific constraints or requirements. This raises a crucial question: Is it possible to guarantee strict constraint satisfaction in generated outputs while preserving the distribution of the original model as much as possible? We first define the ideal distribution - the one closest to the original model, which also always satisfies the expressed constraint - as the ultimate goal of guaranteed generation. We then state a fundamental limitation, namely that it is impossible to reach that goal through autoregressive training alone. This motivates the necessity of combining training-time and inference-time methods to enforce such guarantees. Based on this insight, we propose GUARD, a simple yet effective approach that combines an autoregressive proposal distribution with rejection sampling. Through GUARD's theoretical properties, we show how controlling the KL divergence between a specific proposal and the target ideal distribution simultaneously optimizes inference speed and distributional closeness. To validate these theoretical concepts, we conduct extensive experiments on two text generation settings with hard-to-satisfy constraints: a lexical constraint scenario and a sentiment reversal scenario. These experiments show that GUARD achieves perfect constraint satisfaction while almost preserving the ideal distribution with highly improved inference efficiency. GUARD provides a principled approach to enforcing strict guarantees for LLMs without compromising their generative capabilities.

Weak supervision (WS) is a powerful method to build labeled datasets for training supervised models in the face of little-to-no labeled data. It replaces hand-labeling data with aggregating multiple noisy-but-cheap label estimates expressed by labeling functions (LFs). While it has been used successfully in many domains, weak supervision's application scope is limited by the difficulty of constructing labeling functions for domains with complex or high-dimensional features. To address this, a handful of methods have proposed automating the LF design process using a small set of ground truth labels. In this work, we introduce AutoWS-Bench-101: a framework for evaluating automated WS (AutoWS) techniques in challenging WS settings -- a set of diverse application domains on which it has been previously difficult or impossible to apply traditional WS techniques. While AutoWS is a promising direction toward expanding the application-scope of WS, the emergence of powerful methods such as zero-shot foundation models reveals the need to understand how AutoWS techniques compare or cooperate with modern zero-shot or few-shot learners. This informs the central question of AutoWS-Bench-101: given an initial set of 100 labels for each task, we ask whether a practitioner should use an AutoWS method to generate additional labels or use some simpler baseline, such as zero-shot predictions from a foundation model or supervised learning. We observe that in many settings, it is necessary for AutoWS methods to incorporate signal from foundation models if they are to outperform simple few-shot baselines, and AutoWS-Bench-101 promotes future research in this direction. We conclude with a thorough ablation study of AutoWS methods.

We present AutoResearch-RL, a framework in which a reinforcement learning agent conducts open-ended neural architecture and hyperparameter research without human supervision, running perpetually until a termination oracle signals convergence or resource exhaustion. At each step the agent proposes a code modification to a target training script, executes it under a fixed wall clock time budget, observes a scalar reward derived from validation bits-per-byte (val-bpb), and updates its policy via Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO). The key design insight is the separation of three concerns: (i) a frozen environment (data pipeline, evaluation protocol, and constants) that guarantees fair cross-experiment comparison; (ii) a mutable target file (train.py) that represents the agent's editable state; and (iii) a meta-learner (the RL agent itself) that accumulates a growing trajectory of experiment outcomes and uses them to inform subsequent proposals. We formalise this as a Markov Decision Process, derive convergence guarantees under mild assumptions, and demonstrate empirically on a single GPU nanochat pretraining benchmark that AutoResearch-RL discovers configurations that match or exceed hand-tuned baselines after approximately 300 overnight iterations, with no human in the loop.

We propose Heterogeneous Masked Autoregression (HMA) for modeling action-video dynamics to generate high-quality data and evaluation in scaling robot learning. Building interactive video world models and policies for robotics is difficult due to the challenge of handling diverse settings while maintaining computational efficiency to run in real time. HMA uses heterogeneous pre-training from observations and action sequences across different robotic embodiments, domains, and tasks. HMA uses masked autoregression to generate quantized or soft tokens for video predictions. \ourshort achieves better visual fidelity and controllability than the previous robotic video generation models with 15 times faster speed in the real world. After post-training, this model can be used as a video simulator from low-level action inputs for evaluating policies and generating synthetic data. See this link https://liruiw.github.io/hma for more information.