Daily Papers

Recent studies suggest that Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) is inherently more resilient to catastrophic forgetting than Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). However, whether RFT (e.g., GRPO) can effectively overcome forgetting in challenging visual continual learning settings, such as class-incremental learning (CIL) and domain-incremental learning (DIL), remains an open problem. Through a pilot study, we confirm that while RFT consistently outperforms SFT, it still suffers from non-negligible forgetting. We empirically trace this bottleneck to Trajectory-level Drift Agnosticism: among candidate rollouts achieving identical task rewards, the KL divergence from the preceding-task policy varies substantially, which strongly correlates with catastrophic forgetting across sequential tasks. Motivated by this insight, we propose Retention-aware Policy Optimization (RaPO), a simple yet effective RFT method that explicitly mitigates forgetting through trajectory-level reward shaping. Specifically, RaPO comprises two core components: (1) Retention Reward that converts trajectory-level distribution drift into a continuous reward signal, preferentially reinforcing knowledge-preserving rollouts within each group; (2) Cross-Task Advantage Normalization (CTAN), which maintains a persistent exponential moving average of reward statistics across task boundaries to stabilize the optimization progress during continual learning. Leveraging the free-form textual generalization of MLLMs, we comprehensively evaluate RaPO across five visual continual learning settings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RaPO achieves leading performance, substantially reducing catastrophic forgetting while preserving strong plasticity. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first systematic exploration of RFT in visual continual learning, offering insights that we hope will inspire future research.

Reliable traffic data are essential for understanding urban mobility and developing effective traffic management strategies. This study introduces the DRone-derived Intelligence For Traffic analysis (DRIFT) dataset, a large-scale urban traffic dataset collected systematically from synchronized drone videos at approximately 250 meters altitude, covering nine interconnected intersections in Daejeon, South Korea. DRIFT provides high-resolution vehicle trajectories that include directional information, processed through video synchronization and orthomap alignment, resulting in a comprehensive dataset of 81,699 vehicle trajectories. Through our DRIFT dataset, researchers can simultaneously analyze traffic at multiple scales - from individual vehicle maneuvers like lane-changes and safety metrics such as time-to-collision to aggregate network flow dynamics across interconnected urban intersections. The DRIFT dataset is structured to enable immediate use without additional preprocessing, complemented by open-source models for object detection and trajectory extraction, as well as associated analytical tools. DRIFT is expected to significantly contribute to academic research and practical applications, such as traffic flow analysis and simulation studies. The dataset and related resources are publicly accessible at https://github.com/AIxMobility/The-DRIFT.

Reliable long-range flight of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in GNSS-denied environments is challenging: integrating odometry leads to drift, loop closures are unavailable in previously unseen areas and embedded platforms provide limited computational power. We present a fully onboard UAV system developed for the SPRIN-D Funke Fully Autonomous Flight Challenge, which required 9 km long-range waypoint navigation below 25 m AGL (Above Ground Level) without GNSS or prior dense mapping. The system integrates perception, mapping, planning, and control with a lightweight drift-correction method that matches LiDAR-derived local heightmaps to a prior geo-data heightmap via gradient-template matching and fuses the evidence with odometry in a clustered particle filter. Deployed during the competition, the system executed kilometer-scale flights across urban, forest, and open-field terrain and reduced drift substantially relative to raw odometry, while running in real time on CPU-only hardware. We describe the system architecture, the localization pipeline, and the competition evaluation, and we report practical insights from field deployment that inform the design of GNSS-denied UAV autonomy.

Off-policy learning from multistep returns is crucial for sample-efficient reinforcement learning, but counteracting off-policy bias without exacerbating variance is challenging. Classically, off-policy bias is corrected in a per-decision manner: past temporal-difference errors are re-weighted by the instantaneous Importance Sampling (IS) ratio after each action via eligibility traces. Many off-policy algorithms rely on this mechanism, along with differing protocols for cutting the IS ratios to combat the variance of the IS estimator. Unfortunately, once a trace has been fully cut, the effect cannot be reversed. This has led to the development of credit-assignment strategies that account for multiple past experiences at a time. These trajectory-aware methods have not been extensively analyzed, and their theoretical justification remains uncertain. In this paper, we propose a multistep operator that can express both per-decision and trajectory-aware methods. We prove convergence conditions for our operator in the tabular setting, establishing the first guarantees for several existing methods as well as many new ones. Finally, we introduce Recency-Bounded Importance Sampling (RBIS), which leverages trajectory awareness to perform robustly across lambda-values in an off-policy control task.

Multi-modal trajectory forecasting methods commonly evaluate using single-agent metrics (marginal metrics), such as minimum Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), which fail to capture joint performance of multiple interacting agents. Only focusing on marginal metrics can lead to unnatural predictions, such as colliding trajectories or diverging trajectories for people who are clearly walking together as a group. Consequently, methods optimized for marginal metrics lead to overly-optimistic estimations of performance, which is detrimental to progress in trajectory forecasting research. In response to the limitations of marginal metrics, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) trajectory forecasting methods with respect to multi-agent metrics (joint metrics): JADE, JFDE, and collision rate. We demonstrate the importance of joint metrics as opposed to marginal metrics with quantitative evidence and qualitative examples drawn from the ETH / UCY and Stanford Drone datasets. We introduce a new loss function incorporating joint metrics that, when applied to a SOTA trajectory forecasting method, achieves a 7% improvement in JADE / JFDE on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA. Our results also indicate that optimizing for joint metrics naturally leads to an improvement in interaction modeling, as evidenced by a 16% decrease in mean collision rate on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA.

Robust pedestrian trajectory forecasting is crucial to developing safe autonomous vehicles. Although previous works have studied adversarial robustness in the context of trajectory forecasting, some significant issues remain unaddressed. In this work, we try to tackle these crucial problems. Firstly, the previous definitions of robustness in trajectory prediction are ambiguous. We thus provide formal definitions for two kinds of robustness, namely label robustness and pure robustness. Secondly, as previous works fail to consider robustness about all points in a disturbance interval, we utilise a probably approximately correct (PAC) framework for robustness verification. Additionally, this framework can not only identify potential counterexamples, but also provides interpretable analyses of the original methods. Our approach is applied using a prototype tool named TrajPAC. With TrajPAC, we evaluate the robustness of four state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models -- Trajectron++, MemoNet, AgentFormer, and MID -- on trajectories from five scenes of the ETH/UCY dataset and scenes of the Stanford Drone Dataset. Using our framework, we also experimentally study various factors that could influence robustness performance.

Non-stationarity of an underlying data generating process that leads to distributional changes over time is a key characteristic of Data Streams. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as Concept Drift, has been intensively studied, and Concept Drift Detectors have been established as a class of methods for detecting such changes (drifts). For the most part, Drift Detectors compare regions (windows) of the data stream and detect drift if those windows are sufficiently dissimilar. In this work, we introduce the Window Dilemma, an observation that perceived drift is a product of windowing and not necessarily the underlying data generating process. Additionally, we highlight that drift detection is ill-posed, primarily because verification of drift events are implausible in practice. We demonstrate these contributions first by an illustrative example, followed by empirical comparisons of drift detectors against a variety of alternative adaptation strategies. Our main finding is that traditional batch learning techniques often perform better than their drift-aware counterparts further bringing into question the purpose of detectors in Stream Classification.

Diffusion models can generate realistic videos, but existing methods rely on implicitly learning physical reasoning from large-scale text-video datasets, which is costly, difficult to scale, and still prone to producing implausible motions that violate fundamental physical laws. We introduce a training-free framework that improves physical plausibility at inference time by explicitly reasoning about implausibility and guiding the generation away from it. Specifically, we employ a lightweight physics-aware reasoning pipeline to construct counterfactual prompts that deliberately encode physics-violating behaviors. Then, we propose a novel Synchronized Decoupled Guidance (SDG) strategy, which leverages these prompts through synchronized directional normalization to counteract lagged suppression and trajectory-decoupled denoising to mitigate cumulative trajectory bias, ensuring that implausible content is suppressed immediately and consistently throughout denoising. Experiments across different physical domains show that our approach substantially enhances physical fidelity while maintaining photorealism, despite requiring no additional training. Ablation studies confirm the complementary effectiveness of both the physics-aware reasoning component and SDG. In particular, the aforementioned two designs of SDG are also individually validated to contribute critically to the suppression of implausible content and the overall gains in physical plausibility. This establishes a new and plug-and-play physics-aware paradigm for video generation.

Computer-use agents provide a promising path toward general software automation because they can interact directly with arbitrary graphical user interfaces instead of relying on brittle, application-specific integrations. Despite recent advances in benchmark performance, strong computer-use agents remain expensive and slow in practice, since most systems invoke large multimodal models at nearly every interaction step. We argue that this uniform allocation of compute is fundamentally inefficient for long-horizon GUI tasks. Such trajectories are highly heterogeneous: many steps are routine and can be handled reliably by smaller, cheaper policies, while errors tend to concentrate at a relatively small number of high-risk moments. Across computer-use benchmarks, these failures repeatedly take two forms: progress stalls, where the agent loops, repeats ineffective actions, or fails to make meaningful progress, and silent semantic drift, where the agent continues taking locally plausible actions after already deviating from the user's true goal. To address this inefficiency, we propose an event-driven, step-level cascade for computer-use agents that runs a small policy by default and escalates to a stronger model only when lightweight learned monitors detect elevated risk. Our framework combines two complementary signals: a Stuck Monitor that detects degraded progress from recent reasoning-action history and triggers recovery, and a Milestone Monitor that identifies semantically meaningful checkpoints where sparse verification is most informative for catching drift. This design turns always-on frontier-model inference into adaptive, on-demand compute allocation over the course of an evolving interaction. The framework is modular and deployment-oriented: it can be layered on top of existing computer-use agents without changing the underlying agent architecture or retraining the large model.

This work investigates the reproducibility of the paper 'Explaining RL decisions with trajectories'. The original paper introduces a novel approach in explainable reinforcement learning based on the attribution decisions of an agent to specific clusters of trajectories encountered during training. We verify the main claims from the paper, which state that (i) training on less trajectories induces a lower initial state value, (ii) trajectories in a cluster present similar high-level patterns, (iii) distant trajectories influence the decision of an agent, and (iv) humans correctly identify the attributed trajectories to the decision of the agent. We recover the environments used by the authors based on the partial original code they provided for one of the environments (Grid-World), and implemented the remaining from scratch (Seaquest, HalfCheetah, Breakout and Q*Bert). While we confirm that (i), (ii), and (iii) partially hold, we extend on the largely qualitative experiments from the authors by introducing a quantitative metric to further support (iii), and new experiments and visual results for (i). Moreover, we investigate the use of different clustering algorithms and encoder architectures to further support (ii). We could not support (iv), given the limited extent of the original experiments. We conclude that, while some of the claims can be supported, further investigations and experiments could be of interest. We recognise the novelty of the work from the authors and hope that our work paves the way for clearer and more transparent approaches.

We present a novel data-driven simulation environment for modeling traffic in metropolitan street intersections. Using real-world tracking data collected over an extended period of time, we train trajectory forecasting models to learn agent interactions and environmental constraints that are difficult to capture conventionally. Trajectories of new agents are first coarsely generated by sampling from the spatial and temporal generative distributions, then refined using state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting models. The simulation can run either autonomously, or under explicit human control conditioned on the generative distributions. We present the experiments for a variety of model configurations. Under an iterative prediction scheme, the way-point-supervised TrajNet++ model obtained 0.36 Final Displacement Error (FDE) in 20 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU.

Accurate long-horizon vessel trajectory prediction remains challenging due to compounded uncertainty from complex navigation behaviors and environmental factors. Existing methods often struggle to maintain global directional consistency, leading to drifting or implausible trajectories when extrapolated over long time horizons. To address this issue, we propose a semantic-key-point-conditioned trajectory modeling framework, in which future trajectories are predicted by conditioning on a high-level Next Key Point (NKP) that captures navigational intent. This formulation decomposes long-horizon prediction into global semantic decision-making and local motion modeling, effectively restricting the support of future trajectories to semantically feasible subsets. To efficiently estimate the NKP prior from historical observations, we adopt a pretrain-finetune strategy. Extensive experiments on real-world AIS data demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, particularly for long travel durations, directional accuracy, and fine-grained trajectory prediction.

Multi-agent Large Language Model (LLM) systems have emerged as powerful architectures for complex task decomposition and collaborative problem-solving. However, their long-term behavioral stability remains largely unexamined. This study introduces the concept of agent drift, defined as the progressive degradation of agent behavior, decision quality, and inter-agent coherence over extended interaction sequences. We present a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding drift phenomena, proposing three distinct manifestations: semantic drift (progressive deviation from original intent), coordination drift (breakdown in multi-agent consensus mechanisms), and behavioral drift (emergence of unintended strategies). We introduce the Agent Stability Index (ASI), a novel composite metric framework for quantifying drift across twelve dimensions, including response consistency, tool usage patterns, reasoning pathway stability, and inter-agent agreement rates. Through simulation-based analysis and theoretical modeling, we demonstrate how unchecked agent drift can lead to substantial reductions in task completion accuracy and increased human intervention requirements. We propose three mitigation strategies: episodic memory consolidation, drift-aware routing protocols, and adaptive behavioral anchoring. Theoretical analysis suggests these approaches can significantly reduce drift-related errors while maintaining system throughput. This work establishes a foundational methodology for monitoring, measuring, and mitigating agent drift in production agentic AI systems, with direct implications for enterprise deployment reliability and AI safety research.

High-definition (HD) maps have played an integral role in the development of modern autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks, albeit with high associated labeling and maintenance costs. As a result, many recent works have proposed methods for estimating HD maps online from sensor data, enabling AVs to operate outside of previously-mapped regions. However, current online map estimation approaches are developed in isolation of their downstream tasks, complicating their integration in AV stacks. In particular, they do not produce uncertainty or confidence estimates. In this work, we extend multiple state-of-the-art online map estimation methods to additionally estimate uncertainty and show how this enables more tightly integrating online mapping with trajectory forecasting. In doing so, we find that incorporating uncertainty yields up to 50% faster training convergence and up to 15% better prediction performance on the real-world nuScenes driving dataset.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

We study parallel test-time scaling for long-horizon agentic tasks such as agentic search and deep research, where multiple rollouts are generated in parallel and aggregated into a final response. While such scaling has proven effective for chain-of-thought reasoning, agentic tasks pose unique challenges: trajectories are long, multi-turn, and tool-augmented, and outputs are often open-ended. Aggregating only final answers discards rich information from trajectories, while concatenating all trajectories exceeds the model's context window. To address this, we propose AggAgent, an aggregation agent that treats parallel trajectories as an environment. We equip it with lightweight tools to inspect candidate solutions and search across trajectories, enabling it to navigate and synthesize information on demand. Across six benchmarks and three model families (GLM-4.7, Qwen3.5, MiniMax-M2.5), AggAgent outperforms all existing aggregation methods-by up to 5.3% absolute on average and 10.3% on two deep research tasks-while adding minimal overhead, as the aggregation cost remains bounded by a single agentic rollout. Our findings establish agentic aggregation as an effective and cost-efficient approach to parallel test-time scaling.

In recent years there have been excellent results in Visual-Inertial Odometry techniques, which aim to compute the incremental motion of the sensor with high accuracy and robustness. However these approaches lack the capability to close loops, and trajectory estimation accumulates drift even if the sensor is continually revisiting the same place. In this work we present a novel tightly-coupled Visual-Inertial Simultaneous Localization and Mapping system that is able to close loops and reuse its map to achieve zero-drift localization in already mapped areas. While our approach can be applied to any camera configuration, we address here the most general problem of a monocular camera, with its well-known scale ambiguity. We also propose a novel IMU initialization method, which computes the scale, the gravity direction, the velocity, and gyroscope and accelerometer biases, in a few seconds with high accuracy. We test our system in the 11 sequences of a recent micro-aerial vehicle public dataset achieving a typical scale factor error of 1% and centimeter precision. We compare to the state-of-the-art in visual-inertial odometry in sequences with revisiting, proving the better accuracy of our method due to map reuse and no drift accumulation.

In autonomous driving tasks, trajectory prediction in complex traffic environments requires adherence to real-world context conditions and behavior multimodalities. Existing methods predominantly rely on prior assumptions or generative models trained on curated data to learn road agents' stochastic behavior bounded by scene constraints. However, they often face mode averaging issues due to data imbalance and simplistic priors, and could even suffer from mode collapse due to unstable training and single ground truth supervision. These issues lead the existing methods to a loss of predictive diversity and adherence to the scene constraints. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel trajectory generator named Controllable Diffusion Trajectory (CDT), which integrates map information and social interactions into a Transformer-based conditional denoising diffusion model to guide the prediction of future trajectories. To ensure multimodality, we incorporate behavioral tokens to direct the trajectory's modes, such as going straight, turning right or left. Moreover, we incorporate the predicted endpoints as an alternative behavioral token into the CDT model to facilitate the prediction of accurate trajectories. Extensive experiments on the Argoverse 2 benchmark demonstrate that CDT excels in generating diverse and scene-compliant trajectories in complex urban settings.

Sequential recommendation increasingly employs latent multi-step reasoning to enhance test-time computation. Despite empirical gains, existing approaches largely drive intermediate reasoning states via target-dominant objectives without imposing explicit feasibility constraints. This results in latent drift, where reasoning trajectories deviate into implausible regions. We argue that effective recommendation reasoning should instead be viewed as navigation on a collaborative manifold rather than free-form latent refinement. To this end, we propose ManCAR (Manifold-Constrained Adaptive Reasoning), a principled framework that grounds reasoning within the topology of a global interaction graph. ManCAR constructs a local intent prior from the collaborative neighborhood of a user's recent actions, represented as a distribution over the item simplex. During training, the model progressively aligns its latent predictive distribution with this prior, forcing the reasoning trajectory to remain within the valid manifold. At test time, reasoning proceeds adaptively until the predictive distribution stabilizes, avoiding over-refinement. We provide a variational interpretation of ManCAR to theoretically validate its drift-prevention and adaptive test-time stopping mechanisms. Experiments on seven benchmarks demonstrate that ManCAR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving up to a 46.88% relative improvement w.r.t. NDCG@10. Our code is available at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/ManCAR.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

World models enable planning in imagined future predicted space, offering a promising framework for embodied navigation. However, existing navigation world models often lack action-conditioned consistency, so visually plausible predictions can still drift under multi-step rollout and degrade planning. Moreover, efficient deployment requires few-step diffusion inference, but existing distillation methods do not explicitly preserve rollout consistency, creating a training-inference mismatch. To address these challenges, we propose MWM, a mobile world model for planning-based image-goal navigation. Specifically, we introduce a two-stage training framework that combines structure pretraining with Action-Conditioned Consistency (ACC) post-training to improve action-conditioned rollout consistency. We further introduce Inference-Consistent State Distillation (ICSD) for few-step diffusion distillation with improved rollout consistency. Our experiments on benchmark and real-world tasks demonstrate consistent gains in visual fidelity, trajectory accuracy, planning success, and inference efficiency. Code: https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/MWM. Website: https://aigeeksgroup.github.io/MWM.

Spatial embodied intelligence requires agents to act to acquire information under partial observability. While multimodal foundation models excel at passive perception, their capacity for active, self-directed exploration remains understudied. We propose Theory of Space, defined as an agent's ability to actively acquire information through self-directed, active exploration and to construct, revise, and exploit a spatial belief from sequential, partial observations. We evaluate this through a benchmark where the goal is curiosity-driven exploration to build an accurate cognitive map. A key innovation is spatial belief probing, which prompts models to reveal their internal spatial representations at each step. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art models reveals several critical bottlenecks. First, we identify an Active-Passive Gap, where performance drops significantly when agents must autonomously gather information. Second, we find high inefficiency, as models explore unsystematically compared to program-based proxies. Through belief probing, we diagnose that while perception is an initial bottleneck, global beliefs suffer from instability that causes spatial knowledge to degrade over time. Finally, using a false belief paradigm, we uncover Belief Inertia, where agents fail to update obsolete priors with new evidence. This issue is present in text-based agents but is particularly severe in vision-based models. Our findings suggest that current foundation models struggle to maintain coherent, revisable spatial beliefs during active exploration.

Inertial odometry is an attractive solution to the problem of state estimation for agile quadrotor flight. It is inexpensive, lightweight, and it is not affected by perceptual degradation. However, only relying on the integration of the inertial measurements for state estimation is infeasible. The errors and time-varying biases present in such measurements cause the accumulation of large drift in the pose estimates. Recently, inertial odometry has made significant progress in estimating the motion of pedestrians. State-of-the-art algorithms rely on learning a motion prior that is typical of humans but cannot be transferred to drones. In this work, we propose a learning-based odometry algorithm that uses an inertial measurement unit (IMU) as the only sensor modality for autonomous drone racing tasks. The core idea of our system is to couple a model-based filter, driven by the inertial measurements, with a learning-based module that has access to the thrust measurements. We show that our inertial odometry algorithm is superior to the state-of-the-art filter-based and optimization-based visual-inertial odometry as well as the state-of-the-art learned-inertial odometry in estimating the pose of an autonomous racing drone. Additionally, we show that our system is comparable to a visual-inertial odometry solution that uses a camera and exploits the known gate location and appearance. We believe that the application in autonomous drone racing paves the way for novel research in inertial odometry for agile quadrotor flight.

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

End-to-end multi-modal planning is a promising paradigm in autonomous driving, enabling decision-making with diverse trajectory candidates. A key component is a robust trajectory scorer capable of selecting the optimal trajectory from these candidates. While recent trajectory scorers focus on scoring either large sets of static trajectories or small sets of dynamically generated ones, both approaches face significant limitations in generalization. Static vocabularies provide effective coarse discretization but struggle to make fine-grained adaptation, while dynamic proposals offer detailed precision but fail to capture broader trajectory distributions. To overcome these challenges, we propose GTRS (Generalized Trajectory Scoring), a unified framework for end-to-end multi-modal planning that combines coarse and fine-grained trajectory evaluation. GTRS consists of three complementary innovations: (1) a diffusion-based trajectory generator that produces diverse fine-grained proposals; (2) a vocabulary generalization technique that trains a scorer on super-dense trajectory sets with dropout regularization, enabling its robust inference on smaller subsets; and (3) a sensor augmentation strategy that enhances out-of-domain generalization while incorporating refinement training for critical trajectory discrimination. As the winning solution of the Navsim v2 Challenge, GTRS demonstrates superior performance even with sub-optimal sensor inputs, approaching privileged methods that rely on ground-truth perception. Code will be available at https://github.com/NVlabs/GTRS.

When an LLM agent reads a confidential file, then writes a summary, then emails it externally, no single step is unsafe, but the sequence is a data leak. We call this safety drift: individually safe actions compounding into violations. Prior work has measured this problem; we predict it. SafetyDrift models agent safety trajectories as absorbing Markov chains, computing the probability that a trajectory will reach a violation within a given number of steps via closed form absorption analysis. A consequence of the monotonic state design is that every agent will eventually violate safety if left unsupervised (absorption probability 1.0 from all states), making the practical question not if but when, and motivating our focus on finite horizon prediction. Across 357 traces spanning 40 realistic tasks in four categories, we discover that "points of no return" are sharply task dependent: in communication tasks, agents that reach even a mild risk state have an 85% chance of violating safety within five steps, while in technical tasks the probability stays below 5% from any state. A lightweight monitor built on these models detects 94.7% of violations with 3.7 steps of advance warning at negligible computational cost, outperforming both keyword matching (44.7% detection, 55.9% false positive rate) and per step LLM judges (52.6% detection, 38.2% false positive rate) while running over 60,000x faster.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between observed trajectories and the predictions of deterministic models, hampering the task of planning to ensure safe separation. In this paper a probabilistic model is presented, for the purpose of emulating the trajectories of aircraft in climb and bounding the uncertainty of the predicted trajectory. A monotonic, functional representation exploits the spatio-temporal correlations in the radar observations. Through the use of Gaussian Process Emulators, features that parameterise the climb are mapped directly to functional outputs, providing a fast approximation, while ensuring that the resulting trajectory is monotonic. The model was applied as a probabilistic digital twin for aircraft in climb and baselined against BADA, a deterministic model widely used in industry. When applied to an unseen test dataset, the probabilistic model was found to provide a mean prediction that was 21% more accurate, with a 34% sharper forecast.

Despite recent progress in calibration-free monocular SLAM via 3D vision foundation models, scale drift remains severe on long sequences. Motion-agnostic partitioning breaks contextual coherence and causes zero-motion drift, while conventional geometric alignment is computationally expensive. To address these issues, we propose VGGT-Motion, a calibration-free SLAM system for efficient and robust global consistency over kilometer-scale trajectories. Specifically, we first propose a motion-aware submap construction mechanism that uses optical flow to guide adaptive partitioning, prune static redundancy, and encapsulate turns for stable local geometry. We then design an anchor-driven direct Sim(3) registration strategy. By exploiting context-balanced anchors, it achieves search-free, pixel-wise dense alignment and efficient loop closure without costly feature matching. Finally, a lightweight submap-level pose graph optimization enforces global consistency with linear complexity, enabling scalable long-range operation. Experiments show that VGGT-Motion markedly improves trajectory accuracy and efficiency, achieving state-of-the-art performance in zero-shot, long-range calibration-free monocular SLAM.

Learning socially-aware motion representations is at the core of recent advances in multi-agent problems, such as human motion forecasting and robot navigation in crowds. Despite promising progress, existing representations learned with neural networks still struggle to generalize in closed-loop predictions (e.g., output colliding trajectories). This issue largely arises from the non-i.i.d. nature of sequential prediction in conjunction with ill-distributed training data. Intuitively, if the training data only comes from human behaviors in safe spaces, i.e., from "positive" examples, it is difficult for learning algorithms to capture the notion of "negative" examples like collisions. In this work, we aim to address this issue by explicitly modeling negative examples through self-supervision: (i) we introduce a social contrastive loss that regularizes the extracted motion representation by discerning the ground-truth positive events from synthetic negative ones; (ii) we construct informative negative samples based on our prior knowledge of rare but dangerous circumstances. Our method substantially reduces the collision rates of recent trajectory forecasting, behavioral cloning and reinforcement learning algorithms, outperforming state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/social-nce.

Single-shot neural decoders commit to answers without iterative refinement, while chain-of-thought methods introduce discrete intermediate steps but lack a scalar measure of reasoning progress. We propose Energy-Based Reasoning via Structured Latent Planning (EBRM), which models reasoning as gradient-based optimization of a multi-step latent trajectory z_{1:T} under a learned energy function E(h_x, z). The energy decomposes into per-step compatibility, transition consistency, and trajectory smoothness terms. Training combines supervised encoder-decoder learning with contrastive energy shaping using hard negatives, while inference performs gradient descent or Langevin dynamics over z and decodes from z_T. We identify a critical failure mode: on CNF logic satisfaction, latent planning reduces accuracy from approx 95% to approx 56%. This degradation arises from a distribution mismatch, where the decoder is trained on encoder outputs h_x but evaluated on planner outputs z_T that drift into unseen latent regions. We analyze this behavior through per-step decoding, latent drift tracking, and gradient decomposition. To address it, we propose dual-path decoder training and latent anchoring. We further introduce a six-part ablation protocol covering component contributions, trajectory length, planner dynamics, initialization, decoder training distribution, and anchor weight. Experiments on three synthetic tasks show that energy decreases monotonically and induces structured latent trajectories on graph and logic tasks, while remaining flat on arithmetic (r = 0.073), indicating a negative result. Code is available at https://github.com/dkjo8/ebr-via-structured-latent-planning.

The field of trajectory forecasting has grown significantly in recent years, partially owing to the release of numerous large-scale, real-world human trajectory datasets for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pedestrian motion tracking. While such datasets have been a boon for the community, they each use custom and unique data formats and APIs, making it cumbersome for researchers to train and evaluate methods across multiple datasets. To remedy this, we present trajdata: a unified interface to multiple human trajectory datasets. At its core, trajdata provides a simple, uniform, and efficient representation and API for trajectory and map data. As a demonstration of its capabilities, in this work we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of existing trajectory datasets, providing users with a rich understanding of the data underpinning much of current pedestrian and AV motion forecasting research, and proposing suggestions for future datasets from these insights. trajdata is permissively licensed (Apache 2.0) and can be accessed online at https://github.com/NVlabs/trajdata

Time series reasoning treats time as a first-class axis and incorporates intermediate evidence directly into the answer. This survey defines the problem and organizes the literature by reasoning topology with three families: direct reasoning in one step, linear chain reasoning with explicit intermediates, and branch-structured reasoning that explores, revises, and aggregates. The topology is crossed with the main objectives of the field, including traditional time series analysis, explanation and understanding, causal inference and decision making, and time series generation, while a compact tag set spans these axes and captures decomposition and verification, ensembling, tool use, knowledge access, multimodality, agent loops, and LLM alignment regimes. Methods and systems are reviewed across domains, showing what each topology enables and where it breaks down in faithfulness or robustness, along with curated datasets, benchmarks, and resources that support study and deployment (https://github.com/blacksnail789521/Time-Series-Reasoning-Survey). Evaluation practices that keep evidence visible and temporally aligned are highlighted, and guidance is distilled on matching topology to uncertainty, grounding with observable artifacts, planning for shift and streaming, and treating cost and latency as design budgets. We emphasize that reasoning structures must balance capacity for grounding and self-correction against computational cost and reproducibility, while future progress will likely depend on benchmarks that tie reasoning quality to utility and on closed-loop testbeds that trade off cost and risk under shift-aware, streaming, and long-horizon settings. Taken together, these directions mark a shift from narrow accuracy toward reliability at scale, enabling systems that not only analyze but also understand, explain, and act on dynamic worlds with traceable evidence and credible outcomes.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

Forecasting future trajectories of agents in complex traffic scenes requires reliable and efficient predictions for all agents in the scene. However, existing methods for trajectory prediction are either inefficient or sacrifice accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose ADAPT, a novel approach for jointly predicting the trajectories of all agents in the scene with dynamic weight learning. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both single-agent and multi-agent settings on the Argoverse and Interaction datasets, with a fraction of their computational overhead. We attribute the improvement in our performance: first, to the adaptive head augmenting the model capacity without increasing the model size; second, to our design choices in the endpoint-conditioned prediction, reinforced by gradient stopping. Our analyses show that ADAPT can focus on each agent with adaptive prediction, allowing for accurate predictions efficiently. https://KUIS-AI.github.io/adapt

End-to-end driving systems have recently made rapid progress, in particular on CARLA. Independent of their major contribution, they introduce changes to minor system components. Consequently, the source of improvements is unclear. We identify two biases that recur in nearly all state-of-the-art methods and are critical for the observed progress on CARLA: (1) lateral recovery via a strong inductive bias towards target point following, and (2) longitudinal averaging of multimodal waypoint predictions for slowing down. We investigate the drawbacks of these biases and identify principled alternatives. By incorporating our insights, we develop TF++, a simple end-to-end method that ranks first on the Longest6 and LAV benchmarks, gaining 14 driving score over the best prior work on Longest6.

End-to-end autonomous driving unifies tasks in a differentiable framework, enabling planning-oriented optimization and attracting growing attention. Current methods aggregate historical information either through dense historical bird's-eye-view (BEV) features or by querying a sparse memory bank, following paradigms inherited from detection. However, we argue that these paradigms either omit historical information in motion planning or fail to align with its multi-step nature, which requires predicting or planning multiple future time steps. In line with the philosophy of future is a continuation of past, we propose BridgeAD, which reformulates motion and planning queries as multi-step queries to differentiate the queries for each future time step. This design enables the effective use of historical prediction and planning by applying them to the appropriate parts of the end-to-end system based on the time steps, which improves both perception and motion planning. Specifically, historical queries for the current frame are combined with perception, while queries for future frames are integrated with motion planning. In this way, we bridge the gap between past and future by aggregating historical insights at every time step, enhancing the overall coherence and accuracy of the end-to-end autonomous driving pipeline. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset in both open-loop and closed-loop settings demonstrate that BridgeAD achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

Simulating realistic behaviors of traffic agents is pivotal for efficiently validating the safety of autonomous driving systems. Existing data-driven simulators primarily use an encoder-decoder architecture to encode the historical trajectories before decoding the future. However, the heterogeneity between encoders and decoders complicates the models, and the manual separation of historical and future trajectories leads to low data utilization. Given these limitations, we propose BehaviorGPT, a homogeneous and fully autoregressive Transformer designed to simulate the sequential behavior of multiple agents. Crucially, our approach discards the traditional separation between "history" and "future" by modeling each time step as the "current" one for motion generation, leading to a simpler, more parameter- and data-efficient agent simulator. We further introduce the Next-Patch Prediction Paradigm (NP3) to mitigate the negative effects of autoregressive modeling, in which models are trained to reason at the patch level of trajectories and capture long-range spatial-temporal interactions. Despite having merely 3M model parameters, BehaviorGPT won first place in the 2024 Waymo Open Sim Agents Challenge with a realism score of 0.7473 and a minADE score of 1.4147, demonstrating its exceptional performance in traffic agent simulation.

Autonomous driving has seen significant progress, driven by extensive real-world data. However, in long-tail scenarios, accurately predicting the safety of the ego vehicle's future motion remains a major challenge due to uncertainties in dynamic environments and limitations in data coverage. In this work, we aim to explore whether it is possible to enhance the motion risk prediction capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLM) by synthesizing high-risk motion data. Specifically, we introduce a Bird's-Eye View (BEV) based motion simulation method to model risks from three aspects: the ego-vehicle, other vehicles, and the environment. This allows us to synthesize plug-and-play, high-risk motion data suitable for VLM training, which we call DriveMRP-10K. Furthermore, we design a VLM-agnostic motion risk estimation framework, named DriveMRP-Agent. This framework incorporates a novel information injection strategy for global context, ego-vehicle perspective, and trajectory projection, enabling VLMs to effectively reason about the spatial relationships between motion waypoints and the environment. Extensive experiments demonstrate that by fine-tuning with DriveMRP-10K, our DriveMRP-Agent framework can significantly improve the motion risk prediction performance of multiple VLM baselines, with the accident recognition accuracy soaring from 27.13% to 88.03%. Moreover, when tested via zero-shot evaluation on an in-house real-world high-risk motion dataset, DriveMRP-Agent achieves a significant performance leap, boosting the accuracy from base_model's 29.42% to 68.50%, which showcases the strong generalization capabilities of our method in real-world scenarios.

We argue that progress toward AGI is theory limited rather than data or scale limited. Building on the critical rationalism of Popper and Deutsch, we challenge the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Observationally equivalent worlds can diverge under interventions, so observational adequacy alone cannot guarantee interventional competence. We begin by laying foundations, definitions of knowledge, learning, intelligence, counterfactual competence and AGI, and then analyze the limits of observational learning that motivate an error centric shift. We recast the problem as three questions about how explicit and implicit errors evolve under an agent's actions, which errors are unreachable within a fixed hypothesis space, and how conjecture and criticism expand that space. From these questions we propose Causal Mechanics, a mechanisms first program in which hypothesis space change is a first class operation and probabilistic structure is used when useful rather than presumed. We advance structural principles that make error discovery and correction tractable, including a differential Locality and Autonomy Principle for modular interventions, a gauge invariant form of Independent Causal Mechanisms for separability, and the Compositional Autonomy Principle for analogy preservation, together with actionable diagnostics. The aim is a scaffold for systems that can convert unreachable errors into reachable ones and correct them.

Trajectory prediction has been a crucial task in building a reliable autonomous driving system by anticipating possible dangers. One key issue is to generate consistent trajectory predictions without colliding. To overcome the challenge, we propose an efficient masked autoencoder for trajectory prediction (Traj-MAE) that better represents the complicated behaviors of agents in the driving environment. Specifically, our Traj-MAE employs diverse masking strategies to pre-train the trajectory encoder and map encoder, allowing for the capture of social and temporal information among agents while leveraging the effect of environment from multiple granularities. To address the catastrophic forgetting problem that arises when pre-training the network with multiple masking strategies, we introduce a continual pre-training framework, which can help Traj-MAE learn valuable and diverse information from various strategies efficiently. Our experimental results in both multi-agent and single-agent settings demonstrate that Traj-MAE achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods and significantly outperforms our baseline model.

Trajectory prediction is fundamental in computer vision and autonomous driving, particularly for understanding pedestrian behavior and enabling proactive decision-making. Existing approaches in this field often assume precise and complete observational data, neglecting the challenges associated with out-of-view objects and the noise inherent in sensor data due to limited camera range, physical obstructions, and the absence of ground truth for denoised sensor data. Such oversights are critical safety concerns, as they can result in missing essential, non-visible objects. To bridge this gap, we present a novel method for out-of-sight trajectory prediction that leverages a vision-positioning technique. Our approach denoises noisy sensor observations in an unsupervised manner and precisely maps sensor-based trajectories of out-of-sight objects into visual trajectories. This method has demonstrated state-of-the-art performance in out-of-sight noisy sensor trajectory denoising and prediction on the Vi-Fi and JRDB datasets. By enhancing trajectory prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges of out-of-sight objects, our work significantly contributes to improving the safety and reliability of autonomous driving in complex environments. Our work represents the first initiative towards Out-Of-Sight Trajectory prediction (OOSTraj), setting a new benchmark for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/Hai-chao-Zhang/OOSTraj.

We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single image, even in simple physical scenarios such as falling blocks or mechanical object interactions, despite fine-tuning on such data. We show that this limitation arises from the overhead of generating pixels rather than directly modeling motion.

We identify a fundamental Narrow Policy limitation undermining the performance of autonomous VLA models, where driving Imitation Learning (IL) tends to collapse exploration and limit the potential of subsequent Reinforcement Learning (RL) stages, which often saturate prematurely due to insufficient feedback diversity. Thereby, we propose Curious-VLA, a framework that alleviates the exploit-explore dilemma through a two-stage design. During IL, we introduce a Feasible Trajectory Expansion (FTE) strategy to generate multiple physically valid trajectories and a step-wise normalized trajectory representation to adapt this diverse data. In the RL stage, we present Adaptive Diversity-Aware Sampling (ADAS) that prioritizes high-diversity samples and introduce Spanning Driving Reward (SDR) with a focal style weighting to amplify reward's value span for improving sensitivity to driving quality. On the Navsim benchmark, Curious-VLA achieves SoTA results (PDMS 90.3, EPDMS 85.4) and a Best-of-N PDMS of 94.8, demonstrating its effectiveness in unlocking the exploratory potential of VLA models. Code: https://github.com/Mashiroln/curious_vla.git.

Hybrid reasoning systems that combine learned components with model-based inference are increasingly deployed in tool-augmented decision loops, yet their runtime behavior under partial observability and sustained evidence mismatch remains poorly understood. In practice, failures often arise as gradual divergence of internal reasoning dynamics rather than as isolated prediction errors. This work studies runtime stability in hybrid reasoning systems from a Kalman-inspired perspective. We model reasoning as a stochastic inference process driven by an internal innovation signal and introduce cognitive drift as a measurable runtime phenomenon. Stability is defined in terms of detectability, bounded divergence, and recoverability rather than task-level correctness. We propose a runtime stability framework that monitors innovation statistics, detects emerging instability, and triggers recovery-aware control mechanisms. Experiments on multi-step, tool-augmented reasoning tasks demonstrate reliable instability detection prior to task failure and show that recovery, when feasible, re-establishes bounded internal behavior within finite time. These results emphasize runtime stability as a system-level requirement for reliable reasoning under uncertainty.

Lagrangian turbulence lies at the core of numerous applied and fundamental problems related to the physics of dispersion and mixing in engineering, bio-fluids, atmosphere, oceans, and astrophysics. Despite exceptional theoretical, numerical, and experimental efforts conducted over the past thirty years, no existing models are capable of faithfully reproducing statistical and topological properties exhibited by particle trajectories in turbulence. We propose a machine learning approach, based on a state-of-the-art diffusion model, to generate single-particle trajectories in three-dimensional turbulence at high Reynolds numbers, thereby bypassing the need for direct numerical simulations or experiments to obtain reliable Lagrangian data. Our model demonstrates the ability to reproduce most statistical benchmarks across time scales, including the fat-tail distribution for velocity increments, the anomalous power law, and the increased intermittency around the dissipative scale. Slight deviations are observed below the dissipative scale, particularly in the acceleration and flatness statistics. Surprisingly, the model exhibits strong generalizability for extreme events, producing events of higher intensity and rarity that still match the realistic statistics. This paves the way for producing synthetic high-quality datasets for pre-training various downstream applications of Lagrangian turbulence.

We present a novel framework for motion forecasting with Dual Consistency Constraints and Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. The motion forecasting task predicts future trajectories of vehicles by incorporating spatial and temporal information from the past. A key design of DCMS is the proposed Dual Consistency Constraints that regularize the predicted trajectories under spatial and temporal perturbation during the training stage. In addition, we design a novel self-ensembling scheme to obtain accurate pseudo targets to model the multi-modality in motion forecasting through supervision with multiple targets explicitly, namely Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. Our experimental results on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark show that DCMS significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, achieving 1st place on the leaderboard. We also demonstrate that our proposed strategies can be incorporated into other motion forecasting approaches as general training schemes.

The two most influential cognitive architecture frameworks for AI agents, CoALA [21] and JEPA [12], both lack an explicit Knowledge layer with its own persistence semantics. This gap produces a category error: systems apply cognitive decay to factual claims, or treat facts and experiences with identical update mechanics. We survey persistence semantics across existing memory systems and identify eight convergence points, from Karpathy's LLM Knowledge Base [10] to the BEAM benchmark's near-zero contradiction-resolution scores [22], all pointing to related architectural gaps. We propose a four-layer decom position (Knowledge, Memory, Wisdom, Intelligence) where each layer has fundamentally different persistence semantics: indefinite supersession, Ebbinghaus decay, evidence-gated revision, and ephemeral inference respectively. Companion implementations in Python and Rust demonstrate the architectural separation is feasible. We borrow terminology from cognitive science as a useful analogy (the Knowledge/Memory distinction echoes Tulving's trichotomy), but our layers are engineering constructs justified by persistence-semantics requirements, not by neural architecture. We argue that these distinctions demand distinct persistence semantics in engineering implementations, and that no current framework or system provides this.

Active reasoning requires large language model (LLM) agents to interact with external sources and strategically gather information to solve problems in multiple turns. Central to this process is belief tracking: maintaining an accurate representation of the underlying state and uncertainty in understanding and solving the problem. However, due to limited reasoning capabilities, LLM-based agents often suffer belief deviation: their internal beliefs drift from the true problem state, leading to loss of state awareness and uninformative or repetitive actions. Once this happens, errors compound in the trajectories used for reinforcement learning (RL), leading to misattributed credits and limited exploration. To address this issue, we propose to track belief deviation and develop T^3, a simple yet principled method that detects excessive deviation and truncates training trajectories to suppress uninformative tail effects. Hence, T^3 preserves credits for informative prefixes and systematically improves policy optimization. Across 5 challenging tasks, T^3 consistently enhances training stability and yields performance gains of up to 30 points while cutting token cost by up to 34%. These results highlight belief control as a key principle for building robust LLM agents capable of active reasoning.

Predicting the trajectories of surrounding objects is a critical task for self-driving vehicles and many other autonomous systems. Recent works demonstrate that adversarial attacks on trajectory prediction, where small crafted perturbations are introduced to history trajectories, may significantly mislead the prediction of future trajectories and induce unsafe planning. However, few works have addressed enhancing the robustness of this important safety-critical task.In this paper, we present a novel adversarial training method for trajectory prediction. Compared with typical adversarial training on image tasks, our work is challenged by more random input with rich context and a lack of class labels. To address these challenges, we propose a method based on a semi-supervised adversarial autoencoder, which models disentangled semantic features with domain knowledge and provides additional latent labels for the adversarial training. Extensive experiments with different types of attacks demonstrate that our Semisupervised Semantics-guided Adversarial Training (SSAT) method can effectively mitigate the impact of adversarial attacks by up to 73% and outperform other popular defense methods. In addition, experiments show that our method can significantly improve the system's robust generalization to unseen patterns of attacks. We believe that such semantics-guided architecture and advancement on robust generalization is an important step for developing robust prediction models and enabling safe decision-making.

Video generation models have shown strong potential as world models for autonomous driving simulation. However, existing approaches are primarily trained on real-world driving datasets, which mostly contain natural and safe driving scenarios. As a result, current models often fail when conditioned on challenging or counterfactual trajectories-such as imperfect trajectories generated by simulators or planning systems-producing videos with severe physical inconsistencies and artifacts. To address this limitation, we propose PhyGenesis, a world model designed to generate driving videos with high visual fidelity and strong physical consistency. Our framework consists of two key components: (1) a physical condition generator that transforms potentially invalid trajectory inputs into physically plausible conditions, and (2) a physics-enhanced video generator that produces high-fidelity multi-view driving videos under these conditions. To effectively train these components, we construct a large-scale, physics-rich heterogeneous dataset. Specifically, in addition to real-world driving videos, we generate diverse challenging driving scenarios using the CARLA simulator, from which we derive supervision signals that guide the model to learn physically grounded dynamics under extreme conditions. This challenging-trajectory learning strategy enables trajectory correction and promotes physically consistent video generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhyGenesis consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially on challenging trajectories. Our project page is available at: https://wm-research.github.io/PhyGenesis/.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

This paper presents the development of a comprehensive dataset capturing interactions between Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and traffic control devices, specifically traffic lights and stop signs. Derived from the Waymo Motion dataset, our work addresses a critical gap in the existing literature by providing real-world trajectory data on how AVs navigate these traffic control devices. We propose a methodology for identifying and extracting relevant interaction trajectory data from the Waymo Motion dataset, incorporating over 37,000 instances with traffic lights and 44,000 with stop signs. Our methodology includes defining rules to identify various interaction types, extracting trajectory data, and applying a wavelet-based denoising method to smooth the acceleration and speed profiles and eliminate anomalous values, thereby enhancing the trajectory quality. Quality assessment metrics indicate that trajectories obtained in this study have anomaly proportions in acceleration and jerk profiles reduced to near-zero levels across all interaction categories. By making this dataset publicly available, we aim to address the current gap in datasets containing AV interaction behaviors with traffic lights and signs. Based on the organized and published dataset, we can gain a more in-depth understanding of AVs' behavior when interacting with traffic lights and signs. This will facilitate research on AV integration into existing transportation infrastructures and networks, supporting the development of more accurate behavioral models and simulation tools.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently "hallucinate" - generate plausible yet factually incorrect statements - posing a critical barrier to their trustworthy deployment. In this work, we propose a new paradigm for diagnosing hallucinations, recasting them from static output errors into dynamic pathologies of a model's computational cognition. Our framework is grounded in a normative principle of computational rationality, allowing us to model a VLM's generation as a dynamic cognitive trajectory. We design a suite of information-theoretic probes that project this trajectory onto an interpretable, low-dimensional Cognitive State Space. Our central discovery is a governing principle we term the geometric-information duality: a cognitive trajectory's geometric abnormality within this space is fundamentally equivalent to its high information-theoretic surprisal. Hallucination detection is counts as a geometric anomaly detection problem. Evaluated across diverse settings - from rigorous binary QA (POPE) and comprehensive reasoning (MME) to unconstrained open-ended captioning (MS-COCO) - our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance. Crucially, it operates with high efficiency under weak supervision and remains highly robust even when calibration data is heavily contaminated. This approach enables a causal attribution of failures, mapping observable errors to distinct pathological states: perceptual instability (measured by Perceptual Entropy), logical-causal failure (measured by Inferential Conflict), and decisional ambiguity (measured by Decision Entropy). Ultimately, this opens a path toward building AI systems whose reasoning is transparent, auditable, and diagnosable by design.

End-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a pivotal direction in the field of autonomous systems. Recent works have demonstrated impressive performance by incorporating high-level guidance signals to steer low-level trajectory planners. However, their potential is often constrained by inaccurate high-level guidance and the computational overhead of complex guidance modules. To address these limitations, we propose Mimir, a novel hierarchical dual-system framework capable of generating robust trajectories relying on goal points with uncertainty estimation: (1) Unlike previous approaches that deterministically model, we estimate goal point uncertainty with a Laplace distribution to enhance robustness; (2) To overcome the slow inference speed of the guidance system, we introduce a multi-rate guidance mechanism that predicts extended goal points in advance. Validated on challenging Navhard and Navtest benchmarks, Mimir surpasses previous state-of-the-art methods with a 20% improvement in the driving score EPDMS, while achieving 1.6 times improvement in high-level module inference speed without compromising accuracy. The code and models will be released soon to promote reproducibility and further development. The code is available at https://github.com/ZebinX/Mimir-Uncertainty-Driving

In this paper, we present a novel trajectory prediction model for autonomous driving, combining a Characterized Diffusion Module and a Spatial-Temporal Interaction Network to address the challenges posed by dynamic and heterogeneous traffic environments. Our model enhances the accuracy and reliability of trajectory predictions by incorporating uncertainty estimation and complex agent interactions. Through extensive experimentation on public datasets such as NGSIM, HighD, and MoCAD, our model significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. We demonstrate its ability to capture the underlying spatial-temporal dynamics of traffic scenarios and improve prediction precision, especially in complex environments. The proposed model showcases strong potential for application in real-world autonomous driving systems.

Maritime vessel maneuvers, characterized by their inherent complexity and indeterminacy, requires vessel trajectory prediction system capable of modeling the multi-modality nature of future motion states. Conventional stochastic trajectory prediction methods utilize latent variables to represent the multi-modality of vessel motion, however, tends to overlook the complexity and dynamics inherent in maritime behavior. In contrast, we explicitly simulate the transition of vessel motion from uncertainty towards a state of certainty, effectively handling future indeterminacy in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we present a novel framework (DiffuTraj) to conceptualize the trajectory prediction task as a guided reverse process of motion pattern uncertainty diffusion, in which we progressively remove uncertainty from maritime regions to delineate the intended trajectory. Specifically, we encode the previous states of the target vessel, vessel-vessel interactions, and the environment context as guiding factors for trajectory generation. Subsequently, we devise a transformer-based conditional denoiser to capture spatio-temporal dependencies, enabling the generation of trajectories better aligned for particular maritime environment. Comprehensive experiments on vessel trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Large language model-driven multi-agent systems (LLM-MAS) excel at complex tasks, yet unreliable agents remain a key bottleneck to system-level reliability. Automatic failure attribution is therefore critical, but existing approaches, such as direct prediction of agent-error pairs and agent-first failure attribution, rely on local logs of agents and miss global failures that only manifest over full interaction trajectories, such as cross-step inconsistencies and inter-agent coordination errors. Moreover, directly predicting failures induces a large combinatorial search space, hindering fine-grained attribution. To address these challenges, we propose VerifyMAS, a hypothesis verification framework for agent failure attribution. Instead of directly predicting faulty agents and error types, VerifyMAS formulates and verifies failure hypotheses against full trajectories. This verification-based approach decomposes attribution into trajectory-level error validation and fine-grained agent localization, providing an error-first attribution approach that captures global failure patterns while substantially reducing the search space. We further introduce a hypothesis-based data construction strategy grounded in a structured error taxonomy and fine-tune a specialized LLM verifier model for trajectory-level failure verification and agent attribution. Experiments on Aegis-Bench and Who&When show that VerifyMAS consistently improves diverse backbone models, including open-source Qwen and API-based GPT models, outperforming prior methods without sacrificing inference efficiency for long multi-agent trajectories.

Generating high-fidelity synthetic GPS trajectories is increasingly important for applications in transportation, urban planning, and what-if scenario simulation, especially as privacy concerns limit access to real-world mobility data. Existing trajectory generation models face a trade-off between efficiency and faithfulness to road network topology: continuous-space methods enable fast generation but ignore the road network, while topology-aware approaches rely on search-based autoregressive decoding that limits generation speed. We propose TrajDLM, a topology-aware trajectory generation framework based on block diffusion language models that bridges this gap. TrajDLM models trajectories as sequences of discrete road segments, combining a block diffusion backbone for efficient denoising, topology-aware embeddings from a road network encoder, and topology-constrained sampling to ensure coherent and realistic trajectories. Across three city-scale datasets, TrajDLM achieves strong performance on fine-grained local similarity metrics while being up to 2.8times faster than prior work, and demonstrates strong zero-shot transfer across domains, including unseen transportation modes. These results highlight the effectiveness of block-wise discrete diffusion as a scalable approach to accurate and efficient trajectory generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/TrajDLM/

Safety and robustness are crucial factors in developing trustworthy autonomous vehicles. One essential aspect of addressing these factors is to equip vehicles with the capability to predict future trajectories for all moving objects in the surroundings and quantify prediction uncertainties. In this paper, we propose the Sequential Neural Variational Agent (SeNeVA), a generative model that describes the distribution of future trajectories for a single moving object. Our approach can distinguish Out-of-Distribution data while quantifying uncertainty and achieving competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on the Argoverse 2 and INTERACTION datasets. Specifically, a 0.446 meters minimum Final Displacement Error, a 0.203 meters minimum Average Displacement Error, and a 5.35% Miss Rate are achieved on the INTERACTION test set. Extensive qualitative and quantitative analysis is also provided to evaluate the proposed model. Our open-source code is available at https://github.com/PurdueDigitalTwin/seneva.

Past analyses of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) assume that the human fully observes the environment. What happens when human feedback is based only on partial observations? We formally define two failure cases: deception and overjustification. Modeling the human as Boltzmann-rational w.r.t. a belief over trajectories, we prove conditions under which RLHF is guaranteed to result in policies that deceptively inflate their performance, overjustify their behavior to make an impression, or both. To help address these issues, we mathematically characterize how partial observability of the environment translates into (lack of) ambiguity in the learned return function. In some cases, accounting for partial observability makes it theoretically possible to recover the return function and thus the optimal policy, while in other cases, there is irreducible ambiguity. We caution against blindly applying RLHF in partially observable settings and propose research directions to help tackle these challenges.

Realistic scene reconstruction in driving scenarios poses significant challenges due to fast-moving objects. Most existing methods rely on labor-intensive manual labeling of object poses to reconstruct dynamic objects in canonical space and move them based on these poses during rendering. While some approaches attempt to use 3D object trackers to replace manual annotations, the limited generalization of 3D trackers -- caused by the scarcity of large-scale 3D datasets -- results in inferior reconstructions in real-world settings. In contrast, 2D foundation models demonstrate strong generalization capabilities. To eliminate the reliance on 3D trackers and enhance robustness across diverse environments, we propose a stable object tracking module by leveraging associations from 2D deep trackers within a 3D object fusion strategy. We address inevitable tracking errors by further introducing a motion learning strategy in an implicit feature space that autonomously corrects trajectory errors and recovers missed detections. Experimental results on Waymo-NOTR and KITTI show that our method outperforms existing approaches. Our code will be released on https://lolrudy.github.io/No3DTrackSG/.

Reliable odometry for legged robots without cameras or LiDAR remains challenging due to IMU drift and noisy joint velocity sensing. This paper presents a purely proprioceptive state estimator that uses only IMU and motor measurements to jointly estimate body pose and velocity, with a unified formulation applicable to biped, quadruped, and wheel-legged robots. The key idea is to treat each contacting leg as a kinematic anchor: joint-torque--based foot wrench estimation selects reliable contacts, and the corresponding footfall positions provide intermittent world-frame constraints that suppress long-term drift. To prevent elevation drift during extended traversal, we introduce a lightweight height clustering and time-decay correction that snaps newly recorded footfall heights to previously observed support planes. To improve foot velocity observations under encoder quantization, we apply an inverse-kinematics cubature Kalman filter that directly filters foot-end velocities from joint angles and velocities. The implementation further mitigates yaw drift through multi-contact geometric consistency and degrades gracefully to a kinematics-derived heading reference when IMU yaw constraints are unavailable or unreliable. We evaluate the method on four quadruped platforms (three Astrall robots and a Unitree Go2 EDU) using closed-loop trajectories. On Astrall point-foot robot~A, a sim200\,m horizontal loop and a sim15\,m vertical loop return with 0.1638\,m and 0.219\,m error, respectively; on wheel-legged robot~B, the corresponding errors are 0.2264\,m and 0.199\,m. On wheel-legged robot~C, a sim700\,m horizontal loop yields 7.68\,m error and a sim20\,m vertical loop yields 0.540\,m error. Unitree Go2 EDU closes a sim120\,m horizontal loop with 2.2138\,m error and a sim8\,m vertical loop with less than 0.1\,m vertical error. github.com/ShineMinxing/Ros2Go2Estimator.git

We propose ComDrive: the first comfort-oriented end-to-end autonomous driving system to generate temporally consistent and comfortable trajectories. Recent studies have demonstrated that imitation learning-based planners and learning-based trajectory scorers can effectively generate and select safety trajectories that closely mimic expert demonstrations. However, such trajectory planners and scorers face the challenge of generating temporally inconsistent and uncomfortable trajectories. To address these issues, ComDrive first extracts 3D spatial representations through sparse perception, which then serves as conditional inputs. These inputs are used by a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM)-based motion planner to generate temporally consistent multi-modal trajectories. A dual-stream adaptive trajectory scorer subsequently selects the most comfortable trajectory from these candidates to control the vehicle. Experiments demonstrate that ComDrive achieves state-of-the-art performance in both comfort and safety, outperforming UniAD by 17% in driving comfort and reducing collision rates by 25% compared to SparseDrive. More results are available on our project page: https://jmwang0117.github.io/ComDrive/.

Existing evaluation paradigms for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) face critical limitations. Real-world evaluation is often challenging due to safety concerns and a lack of reproducibility, whereas closed-loop simulation can face insufficient realism or high computational costs. Open-loop evaluation, while being efficient and data-driven, relies on metrics that generally overlook compounding errors. In this paper, we propose pseudo-simulation, a novel paradigm that addresses these limitations. Pseudo-simulation operates on real datasets, similar to open-loop evaluation, but augments them with synthetic observations generated prior to evaluation using 3D Gaussian Splatting. Our key idea is to approximate potential future states the AV might encounter by generating a diverse set of observations that vary in position, heading, and speed. Our method then assigns a higher importance to synthetic observations that best match the AV's likely behavior using a novel proximity-based weighting scheme. This enables evaluating error recovery and the mitigation of causal confusion, as in closed-loop benchmarks, without requiring sequential interactive simulation. We show that pseudo-simulation is better correlated with closed-loop simulations (R^2=0.8) than the best existing open-loop approach (R^2=0.7). We also establish a public leaderboard for the community to benchmark new methodologies with pseudo-simulation. Our code is available at https://github.com/autonomousvision/navsim.

This article presents an in-depth review of the topic of path following for autonomous robotic vehicles, with a specific focus on vehicle motion in two dimensional space (2D). From a control system standpoint, path following can be formulated as the problem of stabilizing a path following error system that describes the dynamics of position and possibly orientation errors of a vehicle with respect to a path, with the errors defined in an appropriate reference frame. In spite of the large variety of path following methods described in the literature we show that, in principle, most of them can be categorized in two groups: stabilization of the path following error system expressed either in the vehicle's body frame or in a frame attached to a "reference point" moving along the path, such as a Frenet-Serret (F-S) frame or a Parallel Transport (P-T) frame. With this observation, we provide a unified formulation that is simple but general enough to cover many methods available in the literature. We then discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method, comparing them from the design and implementation standpoint. We further show experimental results of the path following methods obtained from field trials testing with under-actuated and fully-actuated autonomous marine vehicles. In addition, we introduce open-source Matlab and Gazebo/ROS simulation toolboxes that are helpful in testing path following methods prior to their integration in the combined guidance, navigation, and control systems of autonomous vehicles.

We consider offline reinforcement learning (RL) methods in possibly nonstationary environments. Many existing RL algorithms in the literature rely on the stationarity assumption that requires the system transition and the reward function to be constant over time. However, the stationarity assumption is restrictive in practice and is likely to be violated in a number of applications, including traffic signal control, robotics and mobile health. In this paper, we develop a consistent procedure to test the nonstationarity of the optimal Q-function based on pre-collected historical data, without additional online data collection. Based on the proposed test, we further develop a sequential change point detection method that can be naturally coupled with existing state-of-the-art RL methods for policy optimization in nonstationary environments. The usefulness of our method is illustrated by theoretical results, simulation studies, and a real data example from the 2018 Intern Health Study. A Python implementation of the proposed procedure is available at https://github.com/limengbinggz/CUSUM-RL.

Modern artificial intelligence excels at statistical interpolation within seen manifolds but fundamentally fails at the exact reasoning required for theoretical physics and mathematics. We identify the "Float Wall" -- a catastrophic collapse of neural extrapolation at scales beyond 10^{16} -- caused by standard floating-point representation and linguistic tokenization (BPE). To resolve this, we introduce the Active Discoverer Framework, a digit-native neuro-symbolic architecture designed for invariant discovery. At its core is NumberNet, a Siamese Arithmetic Transformer that utilizes least-significant-bit (LSB) sequence encoding to achieve 0% precision loss and cosmic-scale extrapolation up to 10^{50}. To enforce physical grounding, we implement a Hamiltonian-based energy descent and Symmetry Grouping layer, ensuring the model respects Noether's theorem natively. The primary innovation is the Symbolic LaTeX Bottleneck: an active discovery loop where the model is forced to hypothesize unknown physical variables through an autoregressive LaTeX decoder. By reconciling numeric "hallucinations" with structurally valid mathematical expressions, the framework ensures that any discovered physics is parsimonious and human-interpretable. We evaluate this system against a 30-billion scale benchmark and the Universal Physics Pantheon, featuring 50 "Chaos Mode" systemic perturbations. Our results demonstrate that while traditional GBDT and LLM-based architectures collapse at cosmic scales, the Active Discoverer autonomously deduces universal constants such as the Gravitational Constant (G) with high fidelity. This framework establishes a path toward zero-hallucination artificial intelligence and truly autonomous scientific research agents.

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

Recent advances in video generation enable a new paradigm for 3D scene creation: generating camera-controlled videos that simulate scene walkthroughs, then lifting them to 3D via feed-forward reconstruction techniques. This generative reconstruction approach combines the visual fidelity and creative capacity of video models with 3D outputs ready for real-time rendering and simulation. Scaling to large, complex environments requires 3D-consistent video generation over long camera trajectories with large viewpoint changes and location revisits, a setting where current video models degrade quickly. Existing methods for long-horizon generation are fundamentally limited by two forms of degradation: spatial forgetting and temporal drifting. As exploration proceeds, previously observed regions fall outside the model's temporal context, forcing the model to hallucinate structures when revisited. Meanwhile, autoregressive generation accumulates small synthesis errors over time, gradually distorting scene appearance and geometry. We present Lyra 2.0, a framework for generating persistent, explorable 3D worlds at scale. To address spatial forgetting, we maintain per-frame 3D geometry and use it solely for information routing -- retrieving relevant past frames and establishing dense correspondences with the target viewpoints -- while relying on the generative prior for appearance synthesis. To address temporal drifting, we train with self-augmented histories that expose the model to its own degraded outputs, teaching it to correct drift rather than propagate it. Together, these enable substantially longer and 3D-consistent video trajectories, which we leverage to fine-tune feed-forward reconstruction models that reliably recover high-quality 3D scenes.

Recent end-to-end autonomous driving approaches have leveraged Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to enhance planning capabilities in complex driving scenarios. However, VLMs are inherently trained as generalist models, lacking specialized understanding of driving-specific reasoning in 3D space and time. When applied to autonomous driving, these models struggle to establish structured spatial-temporal representations that capture geometric relationships, scene context, and motion patterns critical for safe trajectory planning. To address these limitations, we propose SGDrive, a novel framework that explicitly structures the VLM's representation learning around driving-specific knowledge hierarchies. Built upon a pre-trained VLM backbone, SGDrive decomposes driving understanding into a scene-agent-goal hierarchy that mirrors human driving cognition: drivers first perceive the overall environment (scene context), then attend to safety-critical agents and their behaviors, and finally formulate short-term goals before executing actions. This hierarchical decomposition provides the structured spatial-temporal representation that generalist VLMs lack, integrating multi-level information into a compact yet comprehensive format for trajectory planning. Extensive experiments on the NAVSIM benchmark demonstrate that SGDrive achieves state-of-the-art performance among camera-only methods on both PDMS and EPDMS, validating the effectiveness of hierarchical knowledge structuring for adapting generalist VLMs to autonomous driving.

In robot manipulation, robot learning has become a prevailing approach. However, generative models within this field face a fundamental trade-off between the slow, iterative sampling of diffusion models and the architectural constraints of faster Flow-based methods, which often rely on explicit consistency losses. To address these limitations, we introduce MP1, which pairs 3D point-cloud inputs with the MeanFlow paradigm to generate action trajectories in one network function evaluation (1-NFE). By directly learning the interval-averaged velocity via the "MeanFlow Identity", our policy avoids any additional consistency constraints. This formulation eliminates numerical ODE-solver errors during inference, yielding more precise trajectories. MP1 further incorporates CFG for improved trajectory controllability while retaining 1-NFE inference without reintroducing structural constraints. Because subtle scene-context variations are critical for robot learning, especially in few-shot learning, we introduce a lightweight Dispersive Loss that repels state embeddings during training, boosting generalization without slowing inference. We validate our method on the Adroit and Meta-World benchmarks, as well as in real-world scenarios. Experimental results show MP1 achieves superior average task success rates, outperforming DP3 by 10.2% and FlowPolicy by 7.3%. Its average inference time is only 6.8 ms-19x faster than DP3 and nearly 2x faster than FlowPolicy. Our code is available at https://github.com/LogSSim/MP1.git.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at single-turn tasks such as instruction following and summarization, yet real-world deployments require sustained multi-turn interactions where user goals and conversational context persist and evolve. A recurring challenge in this setting is context drift: the gradual divergence of a model's outputs from goal-consistent behavior across turns. Unlike single-turn errors, drift unfolds temporally and is poorly captured by static evaluation metrics. In this work, we present a study of context drift in multi-turn interactions and propose a simple dynamical framework to interpret its behavior. We formalize drift as the turn-wise KL divergence between the token-level predictive distributions of the test model and a goal-consistent reference model, and propose a recurrence model that interprets its evolution as a bounded stochastic process with restoring forces and controllable interventions. We instantiate this framework in both synthetic long-horizon rewriting tasks and realistic user-agent simulations such as in tau-Bench, measuring drift for several open-weight LLMs that are used as user simulators. Our experiments consistently reveal stable, noise-limited equilibria rather than runaway degradation, and demonstrate that simple reminder interventions reliably reduce divergence in line with theoretical predictions. Together, these results suggest that multi-turn drift can be understood as a controllable equilibrium phenomenon rather than as inevitable decay, providing a foundation for studying and mitigating context drift in extended interactions.

Autonomous driving requires an understanding of the static environment from sensor data. Learned Bird's-Eye View (BEV) encoders are commonly used to fuse multiple inputs, and a vector decoder predicts a vectorized map representation from the latent BEV grid. However, traditional map construction models provide deterministic point estimates, failing to capture uncertainty and the inherent ambiguities of real-world environments, such as occlusions and missing lane markings. We propose MapDiffusion, a novel generative approach that leverages the diffusion paradigm to learn the full distribution of possible vectorized maps. Instead of predicting a single deterministic output from learned queries, MapDiffusion iteratively refines randomly initialized queries, conditioned on a BEV latent grid, to generate multiple plausible map samples. This allows aggregating samples to improve prediction accuracy and deriving uncertainty estimates that directly correlate with scene ambiguity. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that MapDiffusion achieves state-of-the-art performance in online map construction, surpassing the baseline by 5% in single-sample performance. We further show that aggregating multiple samples consistently improves performance along the ROC curve, validating the benefit of distribution modeling. Additionally, our uncertainty estimates are significantly higher in occluded areas, reinforcing their value in identifying regions with ambiguous sensor input. By modeling the full map distribution, MapDiffusion enhances the robustness and reliability of online vectorized HD map construction, enabling uncertainty-aware decision-making for autonomous vehicles in complex environments.

In this work, we propose a novel Trajectory Score Matching (TSM) method that aims to solve the pseudo ground truth inconsistency problem caused by the accumulated error in Interval Score Matching (ISM) when using the Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) inversion process. Unlike ISM which adopts the inversion process of DDIM to calculate on a single path, our TSM method leverages the inversion process of DDIM to generate two paths from the same starting point for calculation. Since both paths start from the same starting point, TSM can reduce the accumulated error compared to ISM, thus alleviating the problem of pseudo ground truth inconsistency. TSM enhances the stability and consistency of the model's generated paths during the distillation process. We demonstrate this experimentally and further show that ISM is a special case of TSM. Furthermore, to optimize the current multi-stage optimization process from high-resolution text to 3D generation, we adopt Stable Diffusion XL for guidance. In response to the issues of abnormal replication and splitting caused by unstable gradients during the 3D Gaussian splatting process when using Stable Diffusion XL, we propose a pixel-by-pixel gradient clipping method. Extensive experiments show that our model significantly surpasses the state-of-the-art models in terms of visual quality and performance. Code: https://github.com/xingy038/Dreamer-XL.

Ensuring safety and driving consistency is a significant challenge for autonomous vehicles operating in partially observed environments. This work introduces a consistent parallel trajectory optimization (CPTO) approach to enable safe and consistent driving in dense obstacle environments with perception uncertainties. Utilizing discrete-time barrier function theory, we develop a consensus safety barrier module that ensures reliable safety coverage within the spatiotemporal trajectory space across potential obstacle configurations. Following this, a bi-convex parallel trajectory optimization problem is derived that facilitates decomposition into a series of low-dimensional quadratic programming problems to accelerate computation. By leveraging the consensus alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) for parallel optimization, each generated candidate trajectory corresponds to a possible environment configuration while sharing a common consensus trajectory segment. This ensures driving safety and consistency when executing the consensus trajectory segment for the ego vehicle in real time. We validate our CPTO framework through extensive comparisons with state-of-the-art baselines across multiple driving tasks in partially observable environments. Our results demonstrate improved safety and consistency using both synthetic and real-world traffic datasets.

Simulators can generate virtually unlimited driving data, yet imitation learning policies in simulation still struggle to achieve robust closed-loop performance. Motivated by this gap, we empirically study how misalignment between privileged expert demonstrations and sensor-based student observations can limit the effectiveness of imitation learning. More precisely, experts have significantly higher visibility (e.g., ignoring occlusions) and far lower uncertainty (e.g., knowing other vehicles' actions), making them difficult to imitate reliably. Furthermore, navigational intent (i.e., the route to follow) is under-specified in student models at test time via only a single target point. We demonstrate that these asymmetries can measurably limit driving performance in CARLA and offer practical interventions to address them. After careful modifications to narrow the gaps between expert and student, our TransFuser v6 (TFv6) student policy achieves a new state of the art on all major publicly available CARLA closed-loop benchmarks, reaching 95 DS on Bench2Drive and more than doubling prior performances on Longest6~v2 and Town13. Additionally, by integrating perception supervision from our dataset into a shared sim-to-real pipeline, we show consistent gains on the NAVSIM and Waymo Vision-Based End-to-End driving benchmarks. Our code, data, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/autonomousvision/lead.

Coordinated flight of multiple drones allows to achieve tasks faster such as search and rescue and infrastructure inspection. Thus, pushing the state-of-the-art of aerial swarms in navigation speed and robustness is of tremendous benefit. In particular, being able to account for unexplored/unknown environments when planning trajectories allows for safer flight. In this work, we propose the first high-speed, decentralized, and synchronous motion planning framework (HDSM) for an aerial swarm that explicitly takes into account the unknown/undiscovered parts of the environment. The proposed approach generates an optimized trajectory for each planning agent that avoids obstacles and other planning agents while moving and exploring the environment. The only global information that each agent has is the target location. The generated trajectory is high-speed, safe from unexplored spaces, and brings the agent closer to its goal. The proposed method outperforms four recent state-of-the-art methods in success rate (100% success in reaching the target location), flight speed (67% faster), and flight time (42% lower). Finally, the method is validated on a set of Crazyflie nano-drones as a proof of concept.

End-to-end (E2E) autonomous driving presents a promising approach for translating perceptual inputs directly into driving actions. However, prohibitive annotation costs and temporal data quality degradation hinder long-term real-world deployment. While combining imitation learning (IL) and reinforcement learning (RL) is a common strategy for policy improvement, conventional RL training relies on delayed, event-based rewards-policies learn only from catastrophic outcomes such as collisions, leading to premature convergence to suboptimal behaviors. To address these limitations, we introduce GSDrive, a framework that exploits 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) for differentiable, physics-based reward shaping in E2E driving policy improvement. Our method incorporates a flow matching-based trajectory predictor within the 3DGS simulator, enabling multi-mode trajectory probing where candidate trajectories are rolled out to assess prospective rewards. This establishes a bidirectional knowledge exchange between IL and RL by grounding reward functions in physically simulated interaction signals, offering immediate dense feedback instead of sparse catastrophic events. Evaluated on the reconstructed nuScenes dataset, our method surpasses existing simulation-based RL driving approaches in closed-loop experiments. Code is available at https://github.com/ZionGo6/GSDrive.

LLM agents that operate over long context depend on external memory to accumulate knowledge over time. However, existing methods typically store each observation as a single deterministic conclusion (e.g., inferring "API~X failed" from temporary errors), even though such observations are inherently partial and potentially ambiguous. By committing to one conclusion and discarding uncertainty, these methods introduce self-reinforcing error: the agent acts on the stored conclusion, never revisits alternatives, and reinforces the conclusion over time. To address this issue, we propose BeliefMem, which shifts the memory paradigm from committing to a single conclusion per observation to retaining multiple candidate conclusions with their probabilities. Concretely, BeliefMem stores the candidate conclusions as separate memory entries, each carrying a probability that is updated via Noisy-OR rules as new observations arrive. At retrieval, all candidates surface together with their probabilities, keeping alternatives visible to the agent. Since each conclusion in memory retains its probability, BeliefMem preserves the uncertainty that the deterministic paradigm discards, enabling the agent to act with high confidence on well-evidenced knowledge while retaining the capacity to update its confidence when new evidence arrives. Empirical evaluations on LoCoMo and ALFWorld benchmarks show that, even with limited data, BeliefMem achieves the best average performance, remarkably outperforming well-known baselines. More broadly, such probabilistic memory produces substantial gains and explores a new direction for agent memory in partially observable environments.

Automotive telemetry data exhibits slow drifts and fast spikes, often within the same sequence, making reliable anomaly detection challenging. Standard reconstruction-based methods, including sequence variational autoencoders (VAEs), use a single latent process and therefore mix heterogeneous time scales, which can smooth out spikes or inflate variances and weaken anomaly separation. In this paper, we present STREAM-VAE, a variational autoencoder for anomaly detection in automotive telemetry time-series data. Our model uses a dual-path encoder to separate slow drift and fast spike signal dynamics, and a decoder that represents transient deviations separately from the normal operating pattern. STREAM-VAE is designed for deployment, producing stable anomaly scores across operating modes for both in-vehicle monitors and backend fleet analytics. Experiments on an automotive telemetry dataset and the public SMD benchmark show that explicitly separating drift and spike dynamics improves robustness compared to strong forecasting, attention, graph, and VAE baselines.

We present a novel approach for traffic forecasting in urban traffic scenarios using a combination of spectral graph analysis and deep learning. We predict both the low-level information (future trajectories) as well as the high-level information (road-agent behavior) from the extracted trajectory of each road-agent. Our formulation represents the proximity between the road agents using a weighted dynamic geometric graph (DGG). We use a two-stream graph-LSTM network to perform traffic forecasting using these weighted DGGs. The first stream predicts the spatial coordinates of road-agents, while the second stream predicts whether a road-agent is going to exhibit overspeeding, underspeeding, or neutral behavior by modeling spatial interactions between road-agents. Additionally, we propose a new regularization algorithm based on spectral clustering to reduce the error margin in long-term prediction (3-5 seconds) and improve the accuracy of the predicted trajectories. Moreover, we prove a theoretical upper bound on the regularized prediction error. We evaluate our approach on the Argoverse, Lyft, Apolloscape, and NGSIM datasets and highlight the benefits over prior trajectory prediction methods. In practice, our approach reduces the average prediction error by approximately 75% over prior algorithms and achieves a weighted average accuracy of 91.2% for behavior prediction. Additionally, our spectral regularization improves long-term prediction by up to 70%.

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

Driving on roads is restricted by various traffic rules, aiming to ensure safety for all traffic participants. However, human road users usually do not adhere to these rules strictly, resulting in varying degrees of rule conformity. Such deviations from given rules are key components of today's road traffic. In autonomous driving, robotic agents can disturb traffic flow, when rule deviations are not taken into account. In this paper, we present an approach to derive the distribution of degrees of rule conformity from human driving data. We demonstrate our method with the Waymo Open Motion dataset and Safety Distance and Speed Limit rules.

Dependable visual drone detection is crucial for the secure integration of drones into the airspace. However, drone detection accuracy is significantly affected by domain shifts due to environmental changes, varied points of view, and background shifts. To address these challenges, we present the DrIFT dataset, specifically developed for visual drone detection under domain shifts. DrIFT includes fourteen distinct domains, each characterized by shifts in point of view, synthetic-to-real data, season, and adverse weather. DrIFT uniquely emphasizes background shift by providing background segmentation maps to enable background-wise metrics and evaluation. Our new uncertainty estimation metric, MCDO-map, features lower postprocessing complexity, surpassing traditional methods. We use the MCDO-map in our uncertainty-aware unsupervised domain adaptation method, demonstrating superior performance to SOTA unsupervised domain adaptation techniques. The dataset is available at: https://github.com/CARG-uOttawa/DrIFT.git.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

Recent research has made substantial progress on video reasoning, with many models leveraging spatio-temporal evidence chains to strengthen their inference capabilities. At the same time, a growing set of datasets and benchmarks now provides structured annotations designed to support and evaluate such reasoning. However, little attention has been paid to reasoning about how objects move between observations: no prior work has articulated the motion patterns by connecting successive observations, leaving trajectory understanding implicit and difficult to verify. We formalize this missing capability as Spatial-Temporal-Trajectory (STT) reasoning and introduce Motion-o, a motion-centric video understanding extension to visual language models that makes trajectories explicit and verifiable. To enable motion reasoning, we also introduce a trajectory-grounding dataset artifact that expands sparse keyframe supervision via augmentation to yield denser bounding box tracks and a stronger trajectory-level training signal. Finally, we introduce Motion Chain of Thought (MCoT), a structured reasoning pathway that makes object trajectories through discrete <motion/> tag summarizing per-object direction, speed, and scale (of velocity) change to explicitly connect grounded observations into trajectories. To train Motion-o, we design a reward function that compels the model to reason directly over visual evidence, all while requiring no architectural modifications. Empirical results demonstrate that Motion-o improves spatial-temporal grounding and trajectory prediction while remaining fully compatible with existing frameworks, establishing motion reasoning as a critical extension for evidence-based video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/ostadabbas/Motion-o.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Imitation learning method has shown immense promise for robotic manipulation, yet its practical deployment is fundamentally constrained by the data scarcity. Despite prior work on collecting large-scale datasets, there still remains a significant gap to robust spatial generalization. We identify a key limitation: individual trajectories, regardless of their length, are typically collected from a single, static spatial configuration of the environment. This includes fixed object and target spatial positions as well as unchanging camera viewpoints, which significantly restricts the diversity of spatial information available for learning. To address this critical bottleneck in data efficiency, we propose MOtion-Based Variability Enhancement (MOVE), a simple yet effective data collection paradigm that enables the acquisition of richer spatial information from dynamic demonstrations. Our core contribution is an augmentation strategy that injects motion into any movable objects within the environment for each demonstration. This process implicitly generates a dense and diverse set of spatial configurations within a single trajectory. We conduct extensive experiments in both simulation and real-world environments to validate our approach. For example, in simulation tasks requiring strong spatial generalization, MOVE achieves an average success rate of 39.1\%, a 76.1\% relative improvement over the static data collection paradigm (22.2\%), and yields up to 2--5times gains in data efficiency on certain tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/lucywang720/MOVE.

Diffusion model-based approaches have shown promise in data-driven planning, but there are no safety guarantees, thus making it hard to be applied for safety-critical applications. To address these challenges, we propose a new method, called SafeDiffuser, to ensure diffusion probabilistic models satisfy specifications by using a class of control barrier functions. The key idea of our approach is to embed the proposed finite-time diffusion invariance into the denoising diffusion procedure, which enables trustworthy diffusion data generation. Moreover, we demonstrate that our finite-time diffusion invariance method through generative models not only maintains generalization performance but also creates robustness in safe data generation. We test our method on a series of safe planning tasks, including maze path generation, legged robot locomotion, and 3D space manipulation, with results showing the advantages of robustness and guarantees over vanilla diffusion models.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has significantly advanced the reasoning capacity of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, RLVR solely relies on final answers as outcome rewards, neglecting the correctness of intermediate reasoning steps. Training on these process-wrong but outcome-correct rollouts can lead to hallucination and answer-copying, severely undermining the model's generalization and robustness. To address this, we incorporate a Contrastive Learning mechanism into the Policy Optimization (CLIPO) to generalize the RLVR process. By optimizing a contrastive loss over successful rollouts, CLIPO steers the LLM to capture the invariant structure shared across correct reasoning paths. This provides a more robust cross-trajectory regularization than the original single-path supervision in RLVR, effectively mitigating step-level reasoning inconsistencies and suppressing hallucinatory artifacts. In experiments, CLIPO consistently improves multiple RLVR baselines across diverse reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating uniform improvements in generalization and robustness for policy optimization of LLMs. Our code and training recipes are available at https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/CLIPO.

We study inference-time scaling for diffusion models, where the goal is to adapt a pre-trained model to new target distributions without retraining. Existing guidance-based methods are simple but introduce bias, while particle-based corrections suffer from weight degeneracy and high computational cost. We introduce DriftLite, a lightweight, training-free particle-based approach that steers the inference dynamics on the fly with provably optimal stability control. DriftLite exploits a previously unexplored degree of freedom in the Fokker-Planck equation between the drift and particle potential, and yields two practical instantiations: Variance- and Energy-Controlling Guidance (VCG/ECG) for approximating the optimal drift with minimal overhead. Across Gaussian mixture models, particle systems, and large-scale protein-ligand co-folding problems, DriftLite consistently reduces variance and improves sample quality over pure guidance and sequential Monte Carlo baselines. These results highlight a principled, efficient route toward scalable inference-time adaptation of diffusion models.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) introduce new opportunities for safety monitoring through their Chain of Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, CoT is not always faithful to the model's final output, undermining its reliability as a monitoring tool. To address this, we investigate the hidden representations of LRMs to determine whether future behavior can be predicted from prompt and CoT representations. By evaluating a probe at each generated token, we construct a probe trajectory, the continuous evolution of a concept's probability across the reasoning process. We find that future model behavior is more distinguishable when examined over the full trajectory than from a single static prediction. To characterize these temporal dynamics, we extract signal-processing features that capture volatility, trend, and steady-state behavior, significantly improving the separation of future model states. We also present two methodological insights. First, template-based training data achieves near-parity with dynamically generated model responses, eliminating the need for a costly initial inference and labeling. Second, the choice of pooling operation is critical: average-pooling and last-token methods collapse to near-random performance, while max-pooling achieves up to 95% AUROC and yields stable probe trajectories. Using four datasets and four reasoning models across the domains of safety and mathematics, we demonstrate that trajectory features encode task-specific dynamics that improve outcome separability. These findings establish probe trajectories as a complementary framework for monitoring LRM behavior. Warning: This article contains potentially harmful content.

Current state-of-the-art autonomous driving vehicles mainly rely on each individual sensor system to perform perception tasks. Such a framework's reliability could be limited by occlusion or sensor failure. To address this issue, more recent research proposes using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication to share perception information with others. However, most relevant works focus only on cooperative detection and leave cooperative tracking an underexplored research field. A few recent datasets, such as V2V4Real, provide 3D multi-object cooperative tracking benchmarks. However, their proposed methods mainly use cooperative detection results as input to a standard single-sensor Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithm. In their approach, the measurement uncertainty of different sensors from different connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) may not be properly estimated to utilize the theoretical optimality property of Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel 3D multi-object cooperative tracking algorithm for autonomous driving via a differentiable multi-sensor Kalman Filter. Our algorithm learns to estimate measurement uncertainty for each detection that can better utilize the theoretical property of Kalman Filter-based tracking methods. The experiment results show that our algorithm improves the tracking accuracy by 17% with only 0.037x communication costs compared with the state-of-the-art method in V2V4Real. Our code and videos are available at https://github.com/eddyhkchiu/DMSTrack/ and https://eddyhkchiu.github.io/dmstrack.github.io/ .

Recent advances in real-time interactive text-driven motion generation have enabled humanoids to perform diverse behaviors. However, kinematics-only generators often exhibit physical hallucinations, producing motion trajectories that are physically infeasible to track with a downstream motion tracking controller or unsafe for real-world deployment. These failures often arise from the lack of explicit physics-aware objectives for real-robot execution and become more severe under out-of-distribution (OOD) user inputs. Hence, we propose SafeFlow, a text-driven humanoid whole-body control framework that combines physics-guided motion generation with a 3-Stage Safety Gate driven by explicit risk indicators. SafeFlow adopts a two-level architecture. At the high level, we generate motion trajectories using Physics-Guided Rectified Flow Matching in a VAE latent space to improve real-robot executability, and further accelerate sampling via Reflow to reduce the number of function evaluations (NFE) for real-time control. The 3-Stage Safety Gate enables selective execution by detecting semantic OOD prompts using a Mahalanobis score in text-embedding space, filtering unstable generations via a directional sensitivity discrepancy metric, and enforcing final hard kinematic constraints such as joint and velocity limits before passing the generated trajectory to a low-level motion tracking controller. Extensive experiments on the Unitree G1 demonstrate that SafeFlow outperforms prior diffusion-based methods in success rate, physical compliance, and inference speed, while maintaining diverse expressiveness.

Spatial intelligence unfolds through a perception-action loop: agents act to acquire observations, and reason about how observations vary as a function of action. Rather than passively processing what is seen, they actively uncover what is unseen - occluded structure, dynamics, containment, and functionality that cannot be resolved from passive sensing alone. We move beyond prior formulations of spatial intelligence that assume oracle observations by recasting the observer as an actor. We introduce ESI-BENCH, a comprehensive benchmark for embodied spatial intelligence spanning 10 task categories and 29 subcategories built on OmniGibson, grounded in Spelke's core knowledge systems. Agents must decide what abilities to deploy - perception, locomotion, and manipulation - and how to sequence them to actively accumulate task-relevant evidence. We conduct extensive experiments on state-of-the-art MLLMs and find that active exploration substantially outperforms passive counterparts, with agents spontaneously discovering emergent spatial strategies without explicit instructions, while random multi-view often adds noise rather than signal despite consuming far more images. Most failures stem not from weak perception but from action blindness: poor action choices lead to poor observations, which in turn drive cascading errors. While explicit 3D grounding stabilizes reasoning on depth-sensitive tasks, imperfect 3D representation proves more harmful than 2D baselines by distorting spatial relations. Human studies further reveal that unlike humans who seek falsifying viewpoints and revise beliefs under contradiction, models commit prematurely with high confidence regardless of evidence quality, exposing a metacognitive gap that neither better perception nor more embodied interaction alone can close.

The change in data distribution over time, also known as concept drift, poses a significant challenge to the reliability of online learning methods. Existing methods typically require model retraining or drift detection, both of which demand high computational costs and are often unsuitable for real-time applications. To address these limitations, a lightweight, fast and efficient random vector functional-link network termed Lite-RVFL is proposed, capable of adapting to concept drift without drift detection and retraining. Lite-RVFL introduces a novel objective function that assigns weights exponentially increasing to new samples, thereby emphasizing recent data and enabling timely adaptation. Theoretical analysis confirms the feasibility of this objective function for drift adaptation, and an efficient incremental update rule is derived. Experimental results on a real-world safety assessment task validate the efficiency, effectiveness in adapting to drift, and potential to capture temporal patterns of Lite-RVFL. The source code is available at https://github.com/songqiaohu/Lite-RVFL.

RTK-SLAM systems integrate simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with real-time kinematic (RTK) GNSS positioning, promising both relative consistency and globally referenced coordinates for efficient georeferenced surveying. A critical and underappreciated issue is that the standard evaluation metric, Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE), first fits an optimal rigid-body transformation between the estimated trajectory and reference before computing errors. This so-called SE(3) alignment absorbs global drift and systematic errors, making trajectories appear more accurate than they are in practice, and is unsuitable for evaluating the global accuracy of RTK-SLAM. We present a geodetically referenced dataset and evaluation methodology that expose this gap. A key design principle is that the RTK receiver is used solely as a system input, while ground truth is established independently via a geodetic total station. This separation is absent from all existing datasets, where GNSS typically serves as (part of) the ground truth. The dataset is collected with a handheld RTK-SLAM device, comprising two scenes. We evaluate LiDAR-inertial, visual-inertial, and LiDAR-visual-inertial RTK-SLAM systems alongside standalone RTK, reporting direct global accuracy and SE(3)-aligned relative accuracy to make the gap explicit. Results show that SE(3) alignment can underestimate absolute positioning error by up to 76\%. RTK-SLAM achieves centimeter-level absolute accuracy in open-sky conditions and maintains decimeter-level global accuracy indoors, where standalone RTK degrades to tens of meters. The dataset, calibration files, and evaluation scripts are publicly available at https://rtk-slam-dataset.github.io/.

Geometric methods for solving open-world off-road navigation tasks, by learning occupancy and metric maps, provide good generalization but can be brittle in outdoor environments that violate their assumptions (e.g., tall grass). Learning-based methods can directly learn collision-free behavior from raw observations, but are difficult to integrate with standard geometry-based pipelines. This creates an unfortunate conflict -- either use learning and lose out on well-understood geometric navigational components, or do not use it, in favor of extensively hand-tuned geometry-based cost maps. In this work, we reject this dichotomy by designing the learning and non-learning-based components in a way such that they can be effectively combined in a self-supervised manner. Both components contribute to a planning criterion: the learned component contributes predicted traversability as rewards, while the geometric component contributes obstacle cost information. We instantiate and comparatively evaluate our system in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution environments, showing that this approach inherits complementary gains from the learned and geometric components and significantly outperforms either of them. Videos of our results are hosted at https://sites.google.com/view/hybrid-imitative-planning

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

Accumulating substantial volumes of real-world driving data proves pivotal in the realm of trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving. Given the heavy reliance of current trajectory forecasting models on data-driven methodologies, we aim to tackle the challenge of learning general trajectory forecasting representations under limited data availability. We propose a pipeline-level solution to mitigate the issue of data scarcity in trajectory forecasting. The solution is composed of two parts: firstly, we adopt HD map augmentation and trajectory synthesis for generating driving data, and then we learn representations by pre-training on them. Specifically, we apply vector transformations to reshape the maps, and then employ a rule-based model to generate trajectories on both original and augmented scenes; thus enlarging the driving data without collecting additional real ones. To foster the learning of general representations within this augmented dataset, we comprehensively explore the different pre-training strategies, including extending the concept of a Masked AutoEncoder (MAE) for trajectory forecasting. Without bells and whistles, our proposed pipeline-level solution is general, simple, yet effective: we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our data expansion and pre-training strategies, which outperform the baseline prediction model by large margins, e.g. 5.04%, 3.84% and 8.30% in terms of MR_6, minADE_6 and minFDE_6. The pre-training dataset and the codes for pre-training and fine-tuning are released at https://github.com/yhli123/Pretraining_on_Synthetic_Driving_Data_for_Trajectory_Prediction.

Tool-using LLM agents fail through trajectories rather than only final responses, as they may execute unsafe tool calls, follow injected instructions, comply with harmful requests, or over-refuse benign tasks despite producing a seemingly safe answer. Existing safety-alignment signals are largely response-level or off-policy, and often incur a safety-utility trade-off: improving agent safety comes at the cost of degraded task performance. Such sparse and single-objective rewards severely limit real-world usability. To bridge this gap, we propose FATE, an on-policy self-evolving framework that transforms verifier-scored failures into repair supervision without expert demonstrations. For each failure, the same policy proposes repair candidates, which are then re-scored by verifiers and filtered across security, utility, over-refusal control, and trajectory validity. This dense trajectory-level information is then used as a supervision signal for agent self-evolution. During this process, we further introduce Pareto-Front Policy Optimization (PFPO), combining supervised warmup with Pareto-aware policy optimization to preserve safety-utility trade-offs. Experiments on AgentDojo, AgentHarm, and ATBench show that FATE improves safety across different models and scales while preserving useful behavior. Compared with strong baselines, FATE reduces attack success rate by 33.5%, harmful compliance by 82.6%, and improves external trajectory-safety diagnosis by 6.5%. These results suggest that failed trajectories can provide structured repair supervision for safer self-evolving agents.

Test-time scaling can improve model performance by aggregating stochastic reasoning trajectories. However, achieving sample-efficient test-time self-consistency under a limited budget remains an open challenge. We introduce PETS (Principled and Efficient Test-TimeSelf-Consistency), which initiates a principled study of trajectory allocation through an optimization framework. Central to our approach is the self-consistency rate, a new measure defined as agreement with the infinite-budget majority vote. This formulation makes sample-efficient test-time allocation theoretically grounded and amenable to rigorous analysis. We study both offline and online settings. In the offline regime, where all questions are known in advance, we connect trajectory allocation to crowdsourcing, a classic and well-developed area, by modeling reasoning traces as workers. This perspective allows us to leverage rich existing theory, yielding theoretical guarantees and an efficient majority-voting-based allocation algorithm. In the online streaming regime, where questions arrive sequentially and allocations must be made on the fly, we propose a novel method inspired by the offline framework. Our approach adapts budgets to question difficulty while preserving strong theoretical guarantees and computational efficiency. Experiments show that PETS consistently outperforms uniform allocation. On GPQA, PETS achieves perfect self-consistency in both settings while reducing the sampling budget by up to 75% (offline) and 55% (online) relative to uniform allocation. Code is available at https://github.com/ZDCSlab/PETS.

Recent video diffusion models demonstrate strong potential in spatial intelligence tasks due to their rich latent world priors. However, this potential is hindered by their limited controllability and geometric inconsistency, creating a gap between their strong priors and their practical use in 3D/4D tasks. As a result, current approaches often rely on retraining or fine-tuning, which risks degrading pretrained knowledge and incurs high computational costs. To address this, we propose WorldForge, a training-free, inference-time framework composed of three tightly coupled modules. Intra-Step Recursive Refinement introduces a recursive refinement mechanism during inference, which repeatedly optimizes network predictions within each denoising step to enable precise trajectory injection. Flow-Gated Latent Fusion leverages optical flow similarity to decouple motion from appearance in the latent space and selectively inject trajectory guidance into motion-related channels. Dual-Path Self-Corrective Guidance compares guided and unguided denoising paths to adaptively correct trajectory drift caused by noisy or misaligned structural signals. Together, these components inject fine-grained, trajectory-aligned guidance without training, achieving both accurate motion control and photorealistic content generation. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks validate our method's superiority in realism, trajectory consistency, and visual fidelity. This work introduces a novel plug-and-play paradigm for controllable video synthesis, offering a new perspective on leveraging generative priors for spatial intelligence.

Trajectory prediction plays an important role in various applications, including autonomous driving, robotics, and scene understanding. Existing approaches mainly focus on developing compact neural networks to increase prediction precision on public datasets, typically employing a standardized input duration. However, a notable issue arises when these models are evaluated with varying observation lengths, leading to a significant performance drop, a phenomenon we term the Observation Length Shift. To address this issue, we introduce a general and effective framework, the FlexiLength Network (FLN), to enhance the robustness of existing trajectory prediction techniques against varying observation periods. Specifically, FLN integrates trajectory data with diverse observation lengths, incorporates FlexiLength Calibration (FLC) to acquire temporal invariant representations, and employs FlexiLength Adaptation (FLA) to further refine these representations for more accurate future trajectory predictions. Comprehensive experiments on multiple datasets, ie, ETH/UCY, nuScenes, and Argoverse 1, demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of our proposed FLN framework.

3D multi-object tracking (MOT) is vital for many applications including autonomous driving vehicles and service robots. With the commonly used tracking-by-detection paradigm, 3D MOT has made important progress in recent years. However, these methods only use the detection boxes of the current frame to obtain trajectory-box association results, which makes it impossible for the tracker to recover objects missed by the detector. In this paper, we present TrajectoryFormer, a novel point-cloud-based 3D MOT framework. To recover the missed object by detector, we generates multiple trajectory hypotheses with hybrid candidate boxes, including temporally predicted boxes and current-frame detection boxes, for trajectory-box association. The predicted boxes can propagate object's history trajectory information to the current frame and thus the network can tolerate short-term miss detection of the tracked objects. We combine long-term object motion feature and short-term object appearance feature to create per-hypothesis feature embedding, which reduces the computational overhead for spatial-temporal encoding. Additionally, we introduce a Global-Local Interaction Module to conduct information interaction among all hypotheses and models their spatial relations, leading to accurate estimation of hypotheses. Our TrajectoryFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Waymo 3D MOT benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/poodarchu/EFG .

Automated Vehicles (AVs) promise significant advances in transportation. Critical to these improvements is understanding AVs' longitudinal behavior, relying heavily on real-world trajectory data. Existing open-source trajectory datasets of AV, however, often fall short in refinement, reliability, and completeness, hindering effective performance metrics analysis and model development. This study addresses these challenges by creating a Unified Longitudinal TRAjectory dataset for AVs (Ultra-AV) to analyze their microscopic longitudinal driving behaviors. This dataset compiles data from 13 distinct sources, encompassing various AV types, test sites, and experiment scenarios. We established a three-step data processing: 1. extraction of longitudinal trajectory data, 2. general data cleaning, and 3. data-specific cleaning to obtain the longitudinal trajectory data and car-following trajectory data. The validity of the processed data is affirmed through performance evaluations across safety, mobility, stability, and sustainability, along with an analysis of the relationships between variables in car-following models. Our work not only furnishes researchers with standardized data and metrics for longitudinal AV behavior studies but also sets guidelines for data collection and model development.

Motion forecasting is an essential task for autonomous driving, and utilizing information from infrastructure and other vehicles can enhance forecasting capabilities. Existing research mainly focuses on leveraging single-frame cooperative information to enhance the limited perception capability of the ego vehicle, while underutilizing the motion and interaction context of traffic participants observed from cooperative devices. In this paper, we propose a forecasting-oriented representation paradigm to utilize motion and interaction features from cooperative information. Specifically, we present V2X-Graph, a representative framework to achieve interpretable and end-to-end trajectory feature fusion for cooperative motion forecasting. V2X-Graph is evaluated on V2X-Seq in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) scenarios. To further evaluate on vehicle-to-everything (V2X) scenario, we construct the first real-world V2X motion forecasting dataset V2X-Traj, which contains multiple autonomous vehicles and infrastructure in every scenario. Experimental results on both V2X-Seq and V2X-Traj show the advantage of our method. We hope both V2X-Graph and V2X-Traj will benefit the further development of cooperative motion forecasting. Find the project at https://github.com/AIR-THU/V2X-Graph.

We present a fast algorithm for the design of smooth paths (or trajectories) that are constrained to lie in a collection of axis-aligned boxes. We consider the case where the number of these safe boxes is large, and basic preprocessing of them (such as finding their intersections) can be done offline. At runtime we quickly generate a smooth path between given initial and terminal positions. Our algorithm designs trajectories that are guaranteed to be safe at all times, and detects infeasibility whenever such a trajectory does not exist. Our algorithm is based on two subproblems that we can solve very efficiently: finding a shortest path in a weighted graph, and solving (multiple) convex optimal-control problems. We demonstrate the proposed path planner on large-scale numerical examples, and we provide an efficient open-source software implementation, fastpathplanning.

Large Language Model (LLM) Agents exhibit inherent reasoning abilities through the collaboration of multiple tools. However, during agent inference, existing methods often suffer from (i) locally myopic generation, due to the absence of lookahead, and (ii) trajectory instability, where minor early errors can escalate into divergent reasoning paths. These issues make it difficult to balance global effectiveness and computational efficiency. To address these two issues, we propose meta-adaptive exploration with LLM agents https://github.com/exoskeletonzj/MAXS, a meta-adaptive reasoning framework based on LLM Agents that flexibly integrates tool execution and reasoning planning. MAXS employs a lookahead strategy to extend reasoning paths a few steps ahead, estimating the advantage value of tool usage, and combines step consistency variance and inter-step trend slopes to jointly select stable, consistent, and high-value reasoning steps. Additionally, we introduce a trajectory convergence mechanism that controls computational cost by halting further rollouts once path consistency is achieved, enabling a balance between resource efficiency and global effectiveness in multi-tool reasoning. We conduct extensive empirical studies across three base models (MiMo-VL-7B, Qwen2.5-VL-7B, Qwen2.5-VL-32B) and five datasets, demonstrating that MAXS consistently outperforms existing methods in both performance and inference efficiency. Further analysis confirms the effectiveness of our lookahead strategy and tool usage.

Agentic applications based on large language models increasingly rely on multi-step interaction loops involving planning, action execution, and environment feedback. While such systems are now deployed at scale, improving them post-deployment remains challenging. Agent trajectories are voluminous and non-deterministic, and reviewing each one, whether through human review or auxiliary LLMs, is slow and cost-prohibitive. We propose a lightweight, signal-based framework for triaging agentic interaction trajectories. Our approach computes cheap, broadly applicable signals from live interactions and attaches them as structured attributes for trajectory triage, identifying interactions likely to be informative without affecting online agent behavior. We organize signals into a coarse-grained taxonomy spanning interaction (misalignment, stagnation, disengagement, satisfaction), execution (failure, loop), and environment (exhaustion), designed for computation without model calls. In a controlled annotation study on τ-bench, a widely used benchmark for tool-augmented agent evaluation, we show that signal-based sampling achieves an 82\% informativeness rate compared to 74\% for heuristic filtering and 54\% for random sampling, with a 1.52x efficiency gain per informative trajectory. The advantage is robust across reward strata and task domains, confirming that signals provide genuine per-trajectory informativeness gains rather than merely oversampling obvious failures. These results show that lightweight signals can serve as practical sampling infrastructure for agentic systems, and suggest a path toward preference data construction and post-deployment optimization.

We focus on the utilisation of reactive trajectory imitation controllers for goal-directed mobile robot navigation. We propose a topological navigation graph (TNG) - an imitation-learning-based framework for navigating through environments with intersecting trajectories. The TNG framework represents the environment as a directed graph composed of deep neural networks. Each vertex of the graph corresponds to a trajectory and is represented by a trajectory identification classifier and a trajectory imitation controller. For trajectory following, we propose the novel use of neural object detection architectures. The edges of TNG correspond to intersections between trajectories and are all represented by a classifier. We provide empirical evaluation of the proposed navigation framework and its components in simulated and real-world environments, demonstrating that TNG allows us to utilise non-goal-directed, imitation-learning methods for goal-directed autonomous navigation.

This paper introduces TopoDiffuser, a diffusion-based framework for multimodal trajectory prediction that incorporates topometric maps to generate accurate, diverse, and road-compliant future motion forecasts. By embedding structural cues from topometric maps into the denoising process of a conditional diffusion model, the proposed approach enables trajectory generation that naturally adheres to road geometry without relying on explicit constraints. A multimodal conditioning encoder fuses LiDAR observations, historical motion, and route information into a unified bird's-eye-view (BEV) representation. Extensive experiments on the KITTI benchmark demonstrate that TopoDiffuser outperforms state-of-the-art methods, while maintaining strong geometric consistency. Ablation studies further validate the contribution of each input modality, as well as the impact of denoising steps and the number of trajectory samples. To support future research, we publicly release our code at https://github.com/EI-Nav/TopoDiffuser.

High frequency pedestrian motion forecasting when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) can be enhanced through the use of behavioural frameworks, such as discrete choice models, that can explicitly account for correlation among similar movement alternatives. We formulate the pedestrian next step choice as a spatial discrete choice defined by a grid of speed adjustment and heading change. Using naturalistic pedestrian-AV encounters from nuScenes and Argoverse 2 (1 sec decision interval), we estimate a multinomial logit baseline and four spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) specifications (SCL, GSCL, SCNL, and GSCNL). We then compare them to a residual neural network logit (ResLogit) model that learns cross alternative effects while retaining an interpretable linear utility component. Across the evaluated data, spatial GEV structures yield only marginal improvements over multinomial logit, whereas ResLogit achieves a substantially better fit and produces behaviourally coherent errors concentrated among neighbouring grid cells. The results suggest that in dense, high frequency spatial choice sets, learning based residual corrections can capture proximity induced correlation more effectively than analyst specified GEV nesting structures, while maintaining interpretability.

We present HybVIO, a novel hybrid approach for combining filtering-based visual-inertial odometry (VIO) with optimization-based SLAM. The core of our method is highly robust, independent VIO with improved IMU bias modeling, outlier rejection, stationarity detection, and feature track selection, which is adjustable to run on embedded hardware. Long-term consistency is achieved with a loosely-coupled SLAM module. In academic benchmarks, our solution yields excellent performance in all categories, especially in the real-time use case, where we outperform the current state-of-the-art. We also demonstrate the feasibility of VIO for vehicular tracking on consumer-grade hardware using a custom dataset, and show good performance in comparison to current commercial VISLAM alternatives. An open-source implementation of the HybVIO method is available at https://github.com/SpectacularAI/HybVIO

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

This study explores the application of self-supervised learning (SSL) to the task of motion forecasting, an area that has not yet been extensively investigated despite the widespread success of SSL in computer vision and natural language processing. To address this gap, we introduce Forecast-MAE, an extension of the mask autoencoders framework that is specifically designed for self-supervised learning of the motion forecasting task. Our approach includes a novel masking strategy that leverages the strong interconnections between agents' trajectories and road networks, involving complementary masking of agents' future or history trajectories and random masking of lane segments. Our experiments on the challenging Argoverse 2 motion forecasting benchmark show that Forecast-MAE, which utilizes standard Transformer blocks with minimal inductive bias, achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods that rely on supervised learning and sophisticated designs. Moreover, it outperforms the previous self-supervised learning method by a significant margin. Code is available at https://github.com/jchengai/forecast-mae.

Achieving both realism and controllability in interactive closed-loop traffic simulation remains a key challenge in autonomous driving. Data-driven simulation methods reproduce realistic trajectories but suffer from covariate shift in closed-loop deployment, compounded by simplified dynamics models that further reduce reliability. Conversely, physics-based simulation methods enhance reliable and controllable closed-loop interactions but often lack expert demonstrations, compromising realism. To address these challenges, we introduce a dual-stage AV-centered simulation framework that conducts open-loop imitation learning pre-training in a data-driven simulator to capture trajectory-level realism and multimodality, followed by closed-loop reinforcement learning fine-tuning in a physics-based simulator to enhance controllability and mitigate covariate shift. In the fine-tuning stage, we propose RIFT, a simple yet effective closed-loop RL fine-tuning strategy that preserves the trajectory-level multimodality through a GRPO-style group-relative advantage formulation, while enhancing controllability and training stability by replacing KL regularization with the dual-clip mechanism. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RIFT significantly improves the realism and controllability of generated traffic scenarios, providing a robust platform for evaluating autonomous vehicle performance in diverse and interactive scenarios.