Daily Papers

In-context learning (ICL) is a critical emerging capability of large language models (LLMs), enabling few-shot learning during inference by including a few demonstrations (demos) in the prompt. However, it has been found that ICL's performance can be sensitive to the choices of demos and their order. This paper investigates an unexplored new positional bias of ICL for the first time: we observe that the predictions and accuracy can drift drastically when the positions of demos, the system prompt, and the user message in LLM input are varied. We refer to this bias as DEMOS' POSITION IN PROMPT (DPP) bias. We design a systematic evaluation pipeline to study this type of positional bias across classification, question answering, summarization, and reasoning tasks. We introduce two metrics, ACCURACY-CHANGE and PREDICTION-CHANGE, to quantify net gains and output volatility induced by changes in the demos' position. Extensive experiments on ten LLMs from four open-source model families (QWEN, LLAMA3, MISTRAL, COHERE) verify that the bias significantly affects their accuracy and predictions: placing demos at the start of the prompt yields the most stable and accurate outputs with gains of up to +6 points. In contrast, placing demos at the end of the user message flips over 30\% of predictions without improving correctness on QA tasks. Smaller models are most affected by this sensitivity, though even large models remain marginally affected on complex tasks.

Recent work, using the Biasing Features metric, labels a CoT as unfaithful if it omits a prompt-injected hint that affected the prediction. We argue this metric confuses unfaithfulness with incompleteness, the lossy compression needed to turn distributed transformer computation into a linear natural language narrative. On multi-hop reasoning tasks with Llama-3 and Gemma-3, many CoTs flagged as unfaithful by Biasing Features are judged faithful by other metrics, exceeding 50% in some models. With a new faithful@k metric, we show that larger inference-time token budgets greatly increase hint verbalization (up to 90% in some settings), suggesting much apparent unfaithfulness is due to tight token limits. Using Causal Mediation Analysis, we further show that even non-verbalized hints can causally mediate prediction changes through the CoT. We therefore caution against relying solely on hint-based evaluations and advocate a broader interpretability toolkit, including causal mediation and corruption-based metrics.

Recent large vision-language models (LVLMs) can generate vision-text multimodal chain-of-thought (MCoT) traces after reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT). However, we observe that the visual information incorporated in MCoT is often inaccurate, though still yield correct answers, indicating a lack of faithfulness in the MCoT reasoning process. We attribute this unfaithfulness to the RL reward in RFT, which solely incentivizes the format of interleaved vision-text cues, ie, it encourages the model to incorporate visual information into its text reasoning steps without considering the correctness of the visual information. In this paper, we first probe the faithfulness of MCoT by measuring how much the prediction changes when its visual and textual thoughts are intervened. Surprisingly, the model's predictions remain nearly unchanged under visual intervention but change significantly under textual intervention, indicating that the visual evidence is largely ignored. To further analyze visual information, we introduce an automated LVLM-based evaluation metric that quantifies the faithfulness of visual cues from two perspectives: reliability and sufficiency. Our evaluation reveals that the visual information in current MCoT traces is simultaneously unreliable and insufficient. To address this issue, we propose a novel MCoT learning strategy termed Sufficient-Component Cause Model (SCCM) learning. This approach encourages the MCoT to generate sufficient yet minimal visual components that are independently capable of leading to correct answers. We note that the proposed SCCM is annotation-free and compatible with various RFT for MCoT in a plug-and-play manner. Empirical results demonstrate that SCCM consistently improves the visual faithfulness across a suite of fine-grained perception and reasoning benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/EugeneLiu01/Faithful_Thinking_with_Image.

When prompted to think step-by-step, language models (LMs) produce a chain of thought (CoT), a sequence of reasoning steps that the model supposedly used to produce its prediction. Despite much work on CoT prompting, it is unclear if reasoning verbalized in a CoT is faithful to the models' parametric beliefs. We introduce a framework for measuring parametric faithfulness of generated reasoning, and propose Faithfulness by Unlearning Reasoning steps (FUR), an instance of this framework. FUR erases information contained in reasoning steps from model parameters, and measures faithfulness as the resulting effect on the model's prediction. Our experiments with four LMs and five multi-hop multi-choice question answering (MCQA) datasets show that FUR is frequently able to precisely change the underlying models' prediction for a given instance by unlearning key steps, indicating when a CoT is parametrically faithful. Further analysis shows that CoTs generated by models post-unlearning support different answers, hinting at a deeper effect of unlearning.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

Transfer learning has been widely utilized to mitigate the data scarcity problem in the field of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Conventional transfer learning relies on re-using models trained on AD-irrelevant tasks such as natural image classification. However, it often leads to negative transfer due to the discrepancy between the non-medical source and target medical domains. To address this, we present evidence-empowered transfer learning for AD diagnosis. Unlike conventional approaches, we leverage an AD-relevant auxiliary task, namely morphological change prediction, without requiring additional MRI data. In this auxiliary task, the diagnosis model learns the evidential and transferable knowledge from morphological features in MRI scans. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework is not only effective in improving detection performance regardless of model capacity, but also more data-efficient and faithful.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Motivation: Emerging drug-drug interaction (DDI) prediction is crucial for new drugs but is hindered by distribution changes between known and new drugs in real-world scenarios. Current evaluation often neglects these changes, relying on unrealistic i.i.d. split due to the absence of drug approval data. Results: We propose DDI-Ben, a benchmarking framework for emerging DDI prediction under distribution changes. DDI-Ben introduces a distribution change simulation framework that leverages distribution changes between drug sets as a surrogate for real-world distribution changes of DDIs, and is compatible with various drug split strategies. Through extensive benchmarking on ten representative methods, we show that most existing approaches suffer substantial performance degradation under distribution changes. Our analysis further indicates that large language model (LLM) based methods and the integration of drug-related textual information offer promising robustness against such degradation. To support future research, we release the benchmark datasets with simulated distribution changes. Overall, DDI-Ben highlights the importance of explicitly addressing distribution changes and provides a foundation for developing more resilient methods for emerging DDI prediction. Availability and implementation: Our code and data are available at https://github.com/LARS-research/DDI-Bench.

With the rapid growth in language processing applications, fairness has emerged as an important consideration in data-driven solutions. Although various fairness definitions have been explored in the recent literature, there is lack of consensus on which metrics most accurately reflect the fairness of a system. In this work, we propose a new formulation : ACCUMULATED PREDICTION SENSITIVITY, which measures fairness in machine learning models based on the model's prediction sensitivity to perturbations in input features. The metric attempts to quantify the extent to which a single prediction depends on a protected attribute, where the protected attribute encodes the membership status of an individual in a protected group. We show that the metric can be theoretically linked with a specific notion of group fairness (statistical parity) and individual fairness. It also correlates well with humans' perception of fairness. We conduct experiments on two text classification datasets : JIGSAW TOXICITY, and BIAS IN BIOS, and evaluate the correlations between metrics and manual annotations on whether the model produced a fair outcome. We observe that the proposed fairness metric based on prediction sensitivity is statistically significantly more correlated with human annotation than the existing counterfactual fairness metric.

Social determinants of health (SDoH) have an important impact on patient outcomes but are incompletely collected from the electronic health records (EHR). This study researched the ability of large language models to extract SDoH from free text in EHRs, where they are most commonly documented, and explored the role of synthetic clinical text for improving the extraction of these scarcely documented, yet extremely valuable, clinical data. 800 patient notes were annotated for SDoH categories, and several transformer-based models were evaluated. The study also experimented with synthetic data generation and assessed for algorithmic bias. Our best-performing models were fine-tuned Flan-T5 XL (macro-F1 0.71) for any SDoH, and Flan-T5 XXL (macro-F1 0.70). The benefit of augmenting fine-tuning with synthetic data varied across model architecture and size, with smaller Flan-T5 models (base and large) showing the greatest improvements in performance (delta F1 +0.12 to +0.23). Model performance was similar on the in-hospital system dataset but worse on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best-performing fine-tuned models outperformed zero- and few-shot performance of ChatGPT-family models for both tasks. These fine-tuned models were less likely than ChatGPT to change their prediction when race/ethnicity and gender descriptors were added to the text, suggesting less algorithmic bias (p<0.05). At the patient-level, our models identified 93.8% of patients with adverse SDoH, while ICD-10 codes captured 2.0%. Our method can effectively extracted SDoH information from clinic notes, performing better compare to GPT zero- and few-shot settings. These models could enhance real-world evidence on SDoH and aid in identifying patients needing social support.

Massive deployment of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) in high-stake applications generates a strong demand for explanations that are robust to noise and align well with human intuition. Most existing methods generate explanations by identifying a subgraph of an input graph that has a strong correlation with the prediction. These explanations are not robust to noise because independently optimizing the correlation for a single input can easily overfit noise. Moreover, they do not align well with human intuition because removing an identified subgraph from an input graph does not necessarily change the prediction result. In this paper, we propose a novel method to generate robust counterfactual explanations on GNNs by explicitly modelling the common decision logic of GNNs on similar input graphs. Our explanations are naturally robust to noise because they are produced from the common decision boundaries of a GNN that govern the predictions of many similar input graphs. The explanations also align well with human intuition because removing the set of edges identified by an explanation from the input graph changes the prediction significantly. Exhaustive experiments on many public datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

Visual counterfactual explanation (CF) methods modify image concepts, e.g, shape, to change a prediction to a predefined outcome while closely resembling the original query image. Unlike self-explainable models (SEMs) and heatmap techniques, they grant users the ability to examine hypothetical "what-if" scenarios. Previous CF methods either entail post-hoc training, limiting the balance between transparency and CF quality, or demand optimization during inference. To bridge the gap between transparent SEMs and CF methods, we introduce the GdVAE, a self-explainable model based on a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE), featuring a Gaussian discriminant analysis (GDA) classifier and integrated CF explanations. Full transparency is achieved through a generative classifier that leverages class-specific prototypes for the downstream task and a closed-form solution for CFs in the latent space. The consistency of CFs is improved by regularizing the latent space with the explainer function. Extensive comparisons with existing approaches affirm the effectiveness of our method in producing high-quality CF explanations while preserving transparency. Code and models are public.

To demystify the "black box" property of deep neural networks for natural language processing (NLP), several methods have been proposed to interpret their predictions by measuring the change in prediction probability after erasing each token of an input. Since existing methods replace each token with a predefined value (i.e., zero), the resulting sentence lies out of the training data distribution, yielding misleading interpretations. In this study, we raise the out-of-distribution problem induced by the existing interpretation methods and present a remedy; we propose to marginalize each token out. We interpret various NLP models trained for sentiment analysis and natural language inference using the proposed method.

Recent research has made substantial progress on video reasoning, with many models leveraging spatio-temporal evidence chains to strengthen their inference capabilities. At the same time, a growing set of datasets and benchmarks now provides structured annotations designed to support and evaluate such reasoning. However, little attention has been paid to reasoning about how objects move between observations: no prior work has articulated the motion patterns by connecting successive observations, leaving trajectory understanding implicit and difficult to verify. We formalize this missing capability as Spatial-Temporal-Trajectory (STT) reasoning and introduce Motion-o, a motion-centric video understanding extension to visual language models that makes trajectories explicit and verifiable. To enable motion reasoning, we also introduce a trajectory-grounding dataset artifact that expands sparse keyframe supervision via augmentation to yield denser bounding box tracks and a stronger trajectory-level training signal. Finally, we introduce Motion Chain of Thought (MCoT), a structured reasoning pathway that makes object trajectories through discrete <motion/> tag summarizing per-object direction, speed, and scale (of velocity) change to explicitly connect grounded observations into trajectories. To train Motion-o, we design a reward function that compels the model to reason directly over visual evidence, all while requiring no architectural modifications. Empirical results demonstrate that Motion-o improves spatial-temporal grounding and trajectory prediction while remaining fully compatible with existing frameworks, establishing motion reasoning as a critical extension for evidence-based video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/ostadabbas/Motion-o.

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach.

Open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks including object detection and image segmentation have been advanced by the success of Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP). CLIP models, particularly those incorporating vision transformers (ViTs), have exhibited remarkable generalization ability in zero-shot image classification. However, when transferring the vision-language alignment of CLIP from global image representation to local region representation for the open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks, CLIP ViTs suffer from the domain shift from full images to local image regions. In this paper, we embark on an in-depth analysis of the region-language alignment in CLIP models, which is essential for downstream open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks. Subsequently, we propose an approach named CLIPSelf, which adapts the image-level recognition ability of CLIP ViT to local image regions without needing any region-text pairs. CLIPSelf empowers ViTs to distill itself by aligning a region representation extracted from its dense feature map with the image-level representation of the corresponding image crop. With the enhanced CLIP ViTs, we achieve new state-of-the-art performance on open-vocabulary object detection, semantic segmentation, and panoptic segmentation across various benchmarks. Models and code will be available at https://github.com/wusize/CLIPSelf.

Change detection is an important tool for long-term earth observation missions. It takes bi-temporal images as input and predicts "where" the change has occurred. Different from other dense prediction tasks, a meaningful consideration for change detection is the interaction between bi-temporal features. With this motivation, in this paper we propose a novel general change detection architecture, MetaChanger, which includes a series of alternative interaction layers in the feature extractor. To verify the effectiveness of MetaChanger, we propose two derived models, ChangerAD and ChangerEx with simple interaction strategies: Aggregation-Distribution (AD) and "exchange". AD is abstracted from some complex interaction methods, and "exchange" is a completely parameter\&computation-free operation by exchanging bi-temporal features. In addition, for better alignment of bi-temporal features, we propose a flow dual-alignment fusion (FDAF) module which allows interactive alignment and feature fusion. Crucially, we observe Changer series models achieve competitive performance on different scale change detection datasets. Further, our proposed ChangerAD and ChangerEx could serve as a starting baseline for future MetaChanger design.

Financial markets have a vital role in the development of modern society. They allow the deployment of economic resources. Changes in stock prices reflect changes in the market. In this study, we focus on predicting stock prices by deep learning model. This is a challenge task, because there is much noise and uncertainty in information that is related to stock prices. So this work uses sparse autoencoders with one-dimension (1-D) residual convolutional networks which is a deep learning model, to de-noise the data. Long-short term memory (LSTM) is then used to predict the stock price. The prices, indices and macroeconomic variables in past are the features used to predict the next day's price. Experiment results show that 1-D residual convolutional networks can de-noise data and extract deep features better than a model that combines wavelet transforms (WT) and stacked autoencoders (SAEs). In addition, we compare the performances of model with two different forecast targets of stock price: absolute stock price and price rate of change. The results show that predicting stock price through price rate of change is better than predicting absolute prices directly.

Interrogating the evolution of biological changes at early stages of life requires longitudinal profiling of molecules, such as DNA methylation, which can be challenging with children. We introduce a probabilistic and longitudinal machine learning framework based on multi-mean Gaussian processes (GPs), accounting for individual and gene correlations across time. This method provides future predictions of DNA methylation status at different individual ages while accounting for uncertainty. Our model is trained on a birth cohort of children with methylation profiled at ages 0-4, and we demonstrated that the status of methylation sites for each child can be accurately predicted at ages 5-7. We show that methylation profiles predicted by multi-mean GPs can be used to estimate other phenotypes, such as epigenetic age, and enable comparison to other health measures of interest. This approach encourages epigenetic studies to move towards longitudinal design for investigating epigenetic changes during development, ageing and disease progression.

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is also becoming increasingly vital. While most existing Neural Weather Prediction (NeurWP) methods focus on global forecasting, an important question is how these techniques can be applied to limited area modeling. In this work we adapt the graph-based NeurWP approach to the limited area setting and propose a multi-scale hierarchical model extension. Our approach is validated by experiments with a local model for the Nordic region.

This paper presents advancements in automated early-stage prediction of the success of reprogramming human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) as a potential source for regenerative cell therapies.The minuscule success rate of iPSC-reprogramming of around 0.01% to 0.1% makes it labor-intensive, time-consuming, and exorbitantly expensive to generate a stable iPSC line. Since that requires culturing of millions of cells and intense biological scrutiny of multiple clones to identify a single optimal clone. The ability to reliably predict which cells are likely to establish as an optimal iPSC line at an early stage of pluripotency would therefore be ground-breaking in rendering this a practical and cost-effective approach to personalized medicine. Temporal information about changes in cellular appearance over time is crucial for predicting its future growth outcomes. In order to generate this data, we first performed continuous time-lapse imaging of iPSCs in culture using an ultra-high resolution microscope. We then annotated the locations and identities of cells in late-stage images where reliable manual identification is possible. Next, we propagated these labels backwards in time using a semi-automated tracking system to obtain labels for early stages of growth. Finally, we used this data to train deep neural networks to perform automatic cell segmentation and classification. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/abhineet123/ipsc_prediction.

Stock price prediction is a rich research topic that has attracted interest from various areas of science. The recent success of machine learning in speech and image recognition has prompted researchers to apply these methods to asset price prediction. The majority of literature has been devoted to predicting either the actual asset price or the direction of price movement. In this paper, we study a hitherto little explored question of predicting significant changes in stock price based on previous changes using machine learning algorithms. We are particularly interested in the performance of neural network classifiers in the given context. To this end, we construct and test three neural network models including multi-layer perceptron, convolutional net, and long short term memory net. As benchmark models we use random forest and relative strength index methods. The models are tested using 10-year daily stock price data of four major US public companies. Test results show that predicting significant changes in stock price can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy. In particular, we obtain substantially better results than similar studies that forecast the direction of price change.

Grid decarbonization for climate change requires dispatchable carbon-free energy like nuclear fusion. The tokamak concept offers a promising path for fusion, but one of the foremost challenges in implementation is the occurrence of energetic plasma disruptions. In this study, we delve into Machine Learning approaches to predict plasma state outcomes. Our contributions are twofold: (1) We present a novel application of Continuous Convolutional Neural Networks for disruption prediction and (2) We examine the advantages and disadvantages of continuous models over discrete models for disruption prediction by comparing our model with the previous, discrete state of the art, and show that continuous models offer significantly better performance (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve = 0.974 v.s. 0.799) with fewer parameters

Transformers evaluated in a single, fixed-depth pass are provably limited in expressive power to the constant-depth circuit class TC0. Running a Transformer autoregressively removes that ceiling -- first in next-token prediction and, more recently, in chain-of-thought reasoning. Both regimes rely on feedback loops that decode internal states into tokens only to re-encode them in subsequent steps. While this "thinking aloud" mirrors human reasoning, biological brains iterate without externalising intermediate states as language. To boost the expressive power of encoder Transformers without resorting to token-level autoregression, we introduce the SELF-Transformer: an encoder layer that iteratively refines its own attention weights to a fixed point. Instead of producing -- in one pass -- the alignment matrix that remixes the input sequence, the SELF-Transformer iteratively updates that matrix internally, scaling test-time computation with input difficulty. This adaptivity yields up to 20\% accuracy gains on encoder-style benchmarks without increasing parameter count, demonstrating that input-adaptive alignment at test time offers substantial benefits for only a modest extra compute budget. Self-Transformers thus recover much of the expressive power of iterative reasoning while preserving the simplicity of pure encoder architectures.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

In the realm of financial decision-making, predicting stock prices is pivotal. Artificial intelligence techniques such as long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), support-vector machines (SVMs), and natural language processing (NLP) models are commonly employed to predict said prices. This paper utilizes stock percentage change as training data, in contrast to the traditional use of raw currency values, with a focus on analyzing publicly released news articles. The choice of percentage change aims to provide models with context regarding the significance of price fluctuations and overall price change impact on a given stock. The study employs specialized BERT natural language processing models to predict stock price trends, with a particular emphasis on various data modalities. The results showcase the capabilities of such strategies with a small natural language processing model to accurately predict overall stock trends, and highlight the effectiveness of certain data features and sector-specific data.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

Humans' internal states play a key role in human-machine interaction, leading to the rise of human state estimation as a prominent field. Compared to swift state changes such as surprise and irritation, modeling gradual states like trust and satisfaction are further challenged by label sparsity: long time-series signals are usually associated with a single label, making it difficult to identify the critical span of state shifts. Windowing has been one widely-used technique to enable localized analysis of long time-series data. However, the performance of downstream models can be sensitive to the window size, and determining the optimal window size demands domain expertise and extensive search. To address this challenge, we propose a Selective Windowing Attention Network (SWAN), which employs window prompts and masked attention transformation to enable the selection of attended intervals with flexible lengths. We evaluate SWAN on the task of trust prediction on a new multimodal driving simulation dataset. Experiments show that SWAN significantly outperforms an existing empirical window selection baseline and neural network baselines including CNN-LSTM and Transformer. Furthermore, it shows robustness across a wide span of windowing ranges, compared to the traditional windowing approach.

Generating controllable character animation from a reference image and motion guidance remains a challenging task due to the inherent difficulty of injecting appearance and motion cues into video diffusion models. Prior works often rely on complex architectures, explicit guider modules, or multi-stage processing pipelines, which increase structural overhead and hinder deployment. Inspired by the strong visual context modeling capacity of pre-trained video diffusion transformers, we propose FramePrompt, a minimalist yet powerful framework that treats reference images, skeleton-guided motion, and target video clips as a unified visual sequence. By reformulating animation as a conditional future prediction task, we bypass the need for guider networks and structural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms representative baselines across various evaluation metrics while also simplifying training. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of sequence-level visual conditioning and demonstrate the potential of pre-trained models for controllable animation without architectural changes.

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

Information on liquid jet stream flow is crucial in many real world applications. In a large number of cases, these flows fall directly onto free surfaces (e.g. pools), creating a splash with accompanying splashing sounds. The sound produced is supplied by energy interactions between the liquid jet stream and the passive free surface. In this investigation, we collect the sound of a water jet of varying flowrate falling into a pool of water, and use this sound to predict the flowrate and flowrate trajectory involved. Two approaches are employed: one uses machine-learning models trained using audio features extracted from the collected sound to predict the flowrate (and subsequently the flowrate trajectory). In contrast, the second method directly uses acoustic parameters related to the spectral energy of the liquid-liquid interaction to estimate the flowrate trajectory. The actual flowrate, however, is determined directly using a gravimetric method: tracking the change in mass of the pooling liquid over time. We show here that the two methods agree well with the actual flowrate and offer comparable performance in accurately predicting the flowrate trajectory, and accordingly offer insights for potential real-life applications using sound.

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly candle data for GameStop, Tesla, and XRP (Ripple) markets respectively. Applying a 15 hour rolling window for each market, we collected several features based on a linear model and other classical features to predict the next hour's movement. Subsequently, a GMM filtering approach was used to identify clusters among these markets. For each cluster, we applied the EMD algorithm to extract high, medium, low and trend components from each feature collected. A simple thresholding algorithm was applied to classify market movements based on the percentage change in each market's close price. We then evaluated the performance of various machine learning models, including Random Forests (RF) and XGBoost, in classifying market movements. A naive random selection of trading decisions was used as a benchmark, which assumed equal probabilities for each outcome, and a temporal cross-validation approach was used to test models on 40%, 30%, and 20% of the dataset. Our results indicate that transforming selected features using EMD improves performance, particularly for ensemble learning algorithms like Random Forest and XGBoost, as measured by accumulated profit. Finally, GMM filtering expanded the range of learning algorithm and data source combinations that outperformed the top percentile of the random baseline.

Modern Code Review (MCR) is an informal tool-assisted quality assurance practice. It relies on the asynchronous communication among the authors of code changes and reviewers, who are developers that provide feedback. However, from candidate developers, some are able to provide better feedback than others given a particular context. The selection of reviewers is thus an important task, which can benefit from automated support. Many approaches have been proposed in this direction, using for example data from code review repositories to recommend reviewers. In this paper, we propose the use of team-related features to improve the performance of predictions that are helpful to build code reviewer recommenders, with our target predictions being the identification of reviewers that would participate in a review and the provided amount of feedback. We evaluate the prediction power of these features, which are related to code ownership, workload, and team relationship. This evaluation was done by carefully addressing challenges imposed by the MCR domain, such as temporal aspects of the dataset and unbalanced classes. Moreover, given that it is currently unknown how much past data is needed for building MCR prediction models with acceptable performance, we explore the amount of past data used to build prediction models. Our results show that, individually, features related to code ownership have the best prediction power. However, based on feature selection, we conclude that all proposed features together with lines of code can make the best predictions for both reviewer participation and amount of feedback. Regarding the amount of past data, the timeframes of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of data produce similar results. Therefore, models can be trained considering short timeframes, thus reducing the computational costs with negligible impact in the prediction performance ...

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Visual foundation models have achieved remarkable results in zero-shot image classification and segmentation, but zero-shot change detection remains an open problem. In this paper, we propose the segment any change models (AnyChange), a new type of change detection model that supports zero-shot prediction and generalization on unseen change types and data distributions. AnyChange is built on the segment anything model (SAM) via our training-free adaptation method, bitemporal latent matching. By revealing and exploiting intra-image and inter-image semantic similarities in SAM's latent space, bitemporal latent matching endows SAM with zero-shot change detection capabilities in a training-free way. We also propose a point query mechanism to enable AnyChange's zero-shot object-centric change detection capability. We perform extensive experiments to confirm the effectiveness of AnyChange for zero-shot change detection. AnyChange sets a new record on the SECOND benchmark for unsupervised change detection, exceeding the previous SOTA by up to 4.4% F_1 score, and achieving comparable accuracy with negligible manual annotations (1 pixel per image) for supervised change detection.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

A photorealistic and immersive human avatar experience demands capturing fine, person-specific details such as cloth and hair dynamics, subtle facial expressions, and characteristic motion patterns. Achieving this requires large, high-quality datasets, which often introduce ambiguities and spurious correlations when very similar poses correspond to different appearances. Models that fit these details during training can overfit and produce unstable, abrupt appearance changes for novel poses. We propose a 3D Gaussian Splatting avatar model with a spatial MLP backbone that is conditioned on both pose and an appearance latent. The latent is learned during training by an encoder, yielding a compact representation that improves reconstruction quality and helps disambiguate pose-driven renderings. At driving time, our predictor autoregressively infers the latent, producing temporally smooth appearance evolution and improved stability. Overall, our method delivers a robust and practical path to high-fidelity, stable avatar driving.

Can we turn a video prediction model into a robot policy? Videos, including those of humans or teleoperated robots, capture rich physical interactions. However, most of them lack labeled actions, which limits their use in robot learning. We present Video Prediction for Robot Actions (ViPRA), a simple pretraining-finetuning framework that learns continuous robot control from these actionless videos. Instead of directly predicting actions, we train a video-language model to predict both future visual observations and motion-centric latent actions, which serve as intermediate representations of scene dynamics. We train these latent actions using perceptual losses and optical flow consistency to ensure they reflect physically grounded behavior. For downstream control, we introduce a chunked flow matching decoder that maps latent actions to robot-specific continuous action sequences, using only 100 to 200 teleoperated demonstrations. This approach avoids expensive action annotation, supports generalization across embodiments, and enables smooth, high-frequency continuous control upto 22 Hz via chunked action decoding. Unlike prior latent action works that treat pretraining as autoregressive policy learning, explicitly models both what changes and how. Our method outperforms strong baselines, with a 16% gain on the SIMPLER benchmark and a 13% improvement across real world manipulation tasks. We will release models and code at https://vipra-project.github.io

Large language models (LLMs) that produce human-like responses have begun to revolutionize research practices in the social sciences. We develop a novel methodological framework that fine-tunes LLMs with repeated cross-sectional surveys to incorporate the meaning of survey questions, individual beliefs, and temporal contexts for opinion prediction. We introduce two new emerging applications of the AI-augmented survey: retrodiction (i.e., predict year-level missing responses) and unasked opinion prediction (i.e., predict entirely missing responses). Among 3,110 binarized opinions from 68,846 Americans in the General Social Survey from 1972 to 2021, our models based on Alpaca-7b excel in retrodiction (AUC = 0.86 for personal opinion prediction, rho = 0.98 for public opinion prediction). These remarkable prediction capabilities allow us to fill in missing trends with high confidence and pinpoint when public attitudes changed, such as the rising support for same-sex marriage. On the other hand, our fine-tuned Alpaca-7b models show modest success in unasked opinion prediction (AUC = 0.73, rho = 0.67). We discuss practical constraints and ethical concerns regarding individual autonomy and privacy when using LLMs for opinion prediction. Our study demonstrates that LLMs and surveys can mutually enhance each other's capabilities: LLMs can broaden survey potential, while surveys can improve the alignment of LLMs.

The protein chemical shifts holds a large amount of information about the 3-dimensional structure of the protein. A number of chemical shift predictors based on the relationship between structures resolved with X-ray crystallography and the corresponding experimental chemical shifts have been developed. These empirical predictors are very accurate on X-ray structures but tends to be insensitive to small structural changes. To overcome this limitation it has been suggested to make chemical shift predictors based on quantum mechanical(QM) calculations. In this thesis the development of the QM derived chemical shift predictor Procs14 is presented. Procs14 is based on 2.35 million density functional theory(DFT) calculations on tripeptides and contains corrections for hydrogen bonding, ring current and the effect of the previous and following residue. Procs14 is capable at performing predictions for the 13CA, 13CB, 13CO, 15NH, 1HN and 1HA backbone atoms. In order to benchmark Procs14, a number of QM NMR calculations are performed on full protein structures. Of the tested empirical and QM derived predictors, Procs14 reproduced the QM chemical shifts with the highest accuracy. A comparison with the QM derived predictor CheShift-2 on X-ray structures and NMR ensembles with experimental chemical shift data, showed that Procs14 predicted the chemical shifts with the best accuracy. The predictions on the NMR ensembles exhibited the best performance. This suggests that future work might benefit from using ensemble sampling when performing simulations of protein folding with chemical shifts. Procs14 is implemented in the markov chain monte carlo protein folding framework PHAISTOS. The computational efficient implementation of Procs14 allows for rapid predictions and therefore potential use in refinement and folding of protein structures.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

This study investigates the potential of quantum machine learning to improve flood forecasting we focus on daily flood events along Germany's Wupper River in 2023 our approach combines classical machine learning techniques with QML techniques this hybrid model leverages quantum properties like superposition and entanglement to achieve better accuracy and efficiency classical and QML models are compared based on training time accuracy and scalability results show that QML models offer competitive training times and improved prediction accuracy this research signifies a step towards utilizing quantum technologies for climate change adaptation we emphasize collaboration and continuous innovation to implement this model in real-world flood management ultimately enhancing global resilience against floods

Recently, the community has made tremendous progress in developing effective methods for point cloud video understanding that learn from massive amounts of labeled data. However, annotating point cloud videos is usually notoriously expensive. Moreover, training via one or only a few traditional tasks (e.g., classification) may be insufficient to learn subtle details of the spatio-temporal structure existing in point cloud videos. In this paper, we propose a Masked Spatio-Temporal Structure Prediction (MaST-Pre) method to capture the structure of point cloud videos without human annotations. MaST-Pre is based on spatio-temporal point-tube masking and consists of two self-supervised learning tasks. First, by reconstructing masked point tubes, our method is able to capture the appearance information of point cloud videos. Second, to learn motion, we propose a temporal cardinality difference prediction task that estimates the change in the number of points within a point tube. In this way, MaST-Pre is forced to model the spatial and temporal structure in point cloud videos. Extensive experiments on MSRAction-3D, NTU-RGBD, NvGesture, and SHREC'17 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various classification machine learning models, trading data of the 505 equities on the US S&P500 over the past 20 years was analysed to develop a classifier effective for our cause. From any given day, we were able to predict the direction of change in price by 1% up to 10 days in the future. The predictions had an overall accuracy of 83.62% with a precision of 85% for buy signals and a recall of 100% for sell signals. Moreover, we grouped equities by their sector and repeated the experiment to see if grouping similar assets together positively effected the results but concluded that it showed no significant improvements in the performance rejecting the idea of sector-based analysis. Also, using feature ranking we could identify an even smaller set of 6 indicators while maintaining similar accuracies as that from the original 28 features and also uncovered the importance of buy, hold and sell analyst ratings as they came out to be the top contributors in the model. Finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifier in real-life situations, it was backtested on FAANG equities using a modest trading strategy where it generated high returns of above 60% over the term of the testing dataset. In conclusion, our proposed methodology with the combination of purposefully picked features shows an improvement over the previous studies, and our model predicts the direction of 1% price changes on the 10th day with high confidence and with enough buffer to even build a robotic trading system.

Multi-token prediction has emerged as a promising objective for improving language model pretraining, but its benefits have not consistently generalized to other settings such as fine-tuning. In this paper, we propose MuToR, a simple and effective approach to multi-token prediction that interleaves learnable register tokens into the input sequence, each tasked with predicting future targets. Compared to existing methods, MuToR offers several key advantages: it introduces only a negligible number of additional parameters, requires no architectural changes--ensuring compatibility with off-the-shelf pretrained language models--and remains aligned with the next-token pretraining objective, making it especially well-suited for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, it naturally supports scalable prediction horizons. We demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of MuToR across a range of use cases, including supervised fine-tuning, parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), and pretraining, on challenging generative tasks in both language and vision domains. Our code will be available at: https://github.com/nasosger/MuToR.

Saliency maps are increasingly used as design guidance in siRNA efficacy prediction, yet attribution methods are rarely validated before motivating sequence edits. We introduce a pre-synthesis gate: a protocol for counterfactual sensitivity faithfulness that tests whether mutating high-saliency positions changes model output more than composition-matched controls. Cross-dataset transfer reveals two failure modes that would otherwise go undetected: faithful-but-wrong (saliency valid, predictions fail) and inverted saliency (top-saliency edits less impactful than random). Strikingly, models trained on mRNA-level assays collapse on a luciferase reporter dataset, demonstrating that protocol shifts can silently invalidate deployment. Across four benchmarks, 19/20 fold instances pass; the single failure shows inverted saliency. A biology-informed regularizer (BioPrior) strengthens saliency faithfulness with modest, dataset-dependent predictive trade-offs. Our results establish saliency validation as essential pre-deployment practice for explanation-guided therapeutic design. Code is available at https://github.com/shadi97kh/BioPrior.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

The stock market is extremely difficult to predict in the short term due to high market volatility, changes caused by news, and the non-linear nature of the financial time series. This research proposes a novel framework for improving minute-level prediction accuracy using semantic sentiment scores from top ten different large language models (LLMs) combined with minute interval intraday stock price data. We systematically constructed a time-aligned dataset of AAPL news articles and 1-minute Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock prices for the dates of April 4 to May 2, 2025. The sentiment analysis was achieved using the DeepSeek-V3, GPT variants, LLaMA, Claude, Gemini, Qwen, and Mistral models through their APIs. Each article obtained sentiment scores from all ten LLMs, which were scaled to a [0, 1] range and combined with prices and technical indicators like RSI, ROC, and Bollinger Band Width. Two state-of-the-art such as Reformer and Mamba were trained separately on the dataset using the sentiment scores produced by each LLM as input. Hyper parameters were optimized by means of Optuna and were evaluated through a 3-day evaluation period. Reformer had mean squared error (MSE) or the evaluation metrics, and it should be noted that Mamba performed not only faster but also better than Reformer for every LLM across the 10 LLMs tested. Mamba performed best with LLaMA 3.3--70B, with the lowest error of 0.137. While Reformer could capture broader trends within the data, the model appeared to over smooth sudden changes by the LLMs. This study highlights the potential of integrating LLM-based semantic analysis paired with efficient temporal modeling to enhance real-time financial forecasting.

Building a virtual cell capable of accurately simulating cellular behaviors in silico has long been a dream in computational biology. We introduce CellFlux, an image-generative model that simulates cellular morphology changes induced by chemical and genetic perturbations using flow matching. Unlike prior methods, CellFlux models distribution-wise transformations from unperturbed to perturbed cell states, effectively distinguishing actual perturbation effects from experimental artifacts such as batch effects -- a major challenge in biological data. Evaluated on chemical (BBBC021), genetic (RxRx1), and combined perturbation (JUMP) datasets, CellFlux generates biologically meaningful cell images that faithfully capture perturbation-specific morphological changes, achieving a 35% improvement in FID scores and a 12% increase in mode-of-action prediction accuracy over existing methods. Additionally, CellFlux enables continuous interpolation between cellular states, providing a potential tool for studying perturbation dynamics. These capabilities mark a significant step toward realizing virtual cell modeling for biomedical research. Project page: https://yuhui-zh15.github.io/CellFlux/.

Bone density prediction via CT scans to estimate T-scores is crucial, providing a more precise assessment of bone health compared to traditional methods like X-ray bone density tests, which lack spatial resolution and the ability to detect localized changes. However, CT-based prediction faces two major challenges: the high computational complexity of transformer-based architectures, which limits their deployment in portable and clinical settings, and the imbalanced, long-tailed distribution of real-world hospital data that skews predictions. To address these issues, we introduce MedConv, a convolutional model for bone density prediction that outperforms transformer models with lower computational demands. We also adapt Bal-CE loss and post-hoc logit adjustment to improve class balance. Extensive experiments on our AustinSpine dataset shows that our approach achieves up to 21% improvement in accuracy and 20% in ROC AUC over previous state-of-the-art methods.

In the literature, it has been shown that the evolution of the known explicit 3D surface to the target one can be learned from 2D images using the instantaneous flow field, where the known and target 3D surfaces may largely differ in topology. We are interested in capturing 4D shapes whose topology changes largely over time. We encounter that the straightforward extension of the existing 3D-based method to the desired 4D case performs poorly. In this work, we address the challenges in extending 3D neural evolution to 4D under large topological changes by proposing two novel modifications. More precisely, we introduce (i) a new architecture to discretize and encode the deformation and learn the SDF and (ii) a technique to impose the temporal consistency. (iii) Also, we propose a rendering scheme for color prediction based on Gaussian splatting. Furthermore, to facilitate learning directly from 2D images, we propose a learning framework that can disentangle the geometry and appearance from RGB images. This method of disentanglement, while also useful for the 4D evolution problem that we are concentrating on, is also novel and valid for static scenes. Our extensive experiments on various data provide awesome results and, most importantly, open a new approach toward reconstructing challenging scenes with significant topological changes and deformations. Our source code and the dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/insait-institute/N4DE.

Lung cancer is responsible for 21% of cancer deaths in the UK and five-year survival rates are heavily influenced by the stage the cancer was identified at. Recent studies have demonstrated the capability of AI methods for accurate and early diagnosis of lung cancer from routine scans. However, this evidence has not translated into clinical practice with one barrier being a lack of interpretable models. This study investigates the application Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), a type of generative AI model, to lung cancer lesions. Proposed models were trained on lesions extracted from 3D CT scans in the LIDC-IDRI public dataset. Latent vector representations of 2D slices produced by the VAEs were explored through clustering to justify their quality and used in an MLP classifier model for lung cancer diagnosis, the best model achieved state-of-the-art metrics of AUC 0.98 and 93.1% accuracy. Cluster analysis shows the VAE latent space separates the dataset of malignant and benign lesions based on meaningful feature components including tumour size, shape, patient and malignancy class. We also include a comparative analysis of the standard Gaussian VAE (GVAE) and the more recent Dirichlet VAE (DirVAE), which replaces the prior with a Dirichlet distribution to encourage a more explainable latent space with disentangled feature representation. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for latent space traversals corresponding to clinically meaningful feature changes.

Remote sensing change detection aims to localize and characterize scene changes between two time points and is central to applications such as environmental monitoring and disaster assessment. Meanwhile, visual autoregressive models (VARs) have recently shown impressive image generation capability, but their adoption for pixel-level discriminative tasks remains limited due to weak controllability, suboptimal dense prediction performance and exposure bias. We introduce RemoteVAR, a new VAR-based change detection framework that addresses these limitations by conditioning autoregressive prediction on multi-resolution fused bi-temporal features via cross-attention, and by employing an autoregressive training strategy designed specifically for change map prediction. Extensive experiments on standard change detection benchmarks show that RemoteVAR delivers consistent and significant improvements over strong diffusion-based and transformer-based baselines, establishing a competitive autoregressive alternative for remote sensing change detection. Code will be available https://github.com/yilmazkorkmaz1/RemoteVAR{here}.

The purpose of remote sensing image change detection (RSCD) is to detect differences between bi-temporal images taken at the same place. Deep learning has been extensively used to RSCD tasks, yielding significant results in terms of result recognition. However, due to the shooting angle of the satellite, the impacts of thin clouds, and certain lighting conditions, the problem of fuzzy edges in the change region in some remote sensing photographs cannot be properly handled using current RSCD algorithms. To solve this issue, we proposed a Body Decouple Multi-Scale by fearure Aggregation change detection (BD-MSA), a novel model that collects both global and local feature map information in the channel and space dimensions of the feature map during the training and prediction phases. This approach allows us to successfully extract the change region's boundary information while also divorcing the change region's main body from its boundary. Numerous studies have shown that the assessment metrics and evaluation effects of the model described in this paper on the publicly available datasets DSIFN-CD, S2Looking and WHU-CD are the best when compared to other models.

Tumor protein P53 is believed to be involved in over half of human cancers cases, the prediction of malignancies plays essential roles not only in advance detection for cancer, but also in discovering effective prevention and treatment of cancer, till now there isn't approach be able in prediction the mutated in tumor protein P53 which is caused high ratio of human cancers like breast, Blood, skin, liver, lung, bladder etc. This research proposed a new approach for prediction pre-cancer via detection malignant mutations in tumor protein P53 using bioinformatics tools like FASTA, BLAST, CLUSTALW and TP53 databases worldwide. Implement and apply this new approach of prediction pre-cancer through mutations at tumor protein P53 shows an effective result when used more specific parameters/features to extract the prediction result that means when the user increase the number of filters of the results which obtained from the database gives more specific diagnosis and classify, addition that the detecting pre-cancer via prediction mutated tumor protein P53 will reduces a person's cancers in the future by avoiding exposure to toxins, radiation or monitoring themselves at older ages by change their food, environment, even the pace of living. Also that new approach of prediction pre-cancer will help if there is any treatment can give for that person to therapy the mutated tumor protein P53. Index Terms (Normal Homology TP53 gene, Tumor Protein P53, Oncogene Labs, GC and AT content, FASTA, BLAST, ClustalW)

Plant traits such as leaf carbon content and leaf mass are essential variables in the study of biodiversity and climate change. However, conventional field sampling cannot feasibly cover trait variation at ecologically meaningful spatial scales. Machine learning represents a valuable solution for plant trait prediction across ecosystems, leveraging hyperspectral data from remote sensing. Nevertheless, trait prediction from hyperspectral data is challenged by label scarcity and substantial domain shifts (\eg across sensors, ecological distributions), requiring robust cross-domain methods. Here, we present GreenHyperSpectra, a pretraining dataset encompassing real-world cross-sensor and cross-ecosystem samples designed to benchmark trait prediction with semi- and self-supervised methods. We adopt an evaluation framework encompassing in-distribution and out-of-distribution scenarios. We successfully leverage GreenHyperSpectra to pretrain label-efficient multi-output regression models that outperform the state-of-the-art supervised baseline. Our empirical analyses demonstrate substantial improvements in learning spectral representations for trait prediction, establishing a comprehensive methodological framework to catalyze research at the intersection of representation learning and plant functional traits assessment. All code and data are available at: https://github.com/echerif18/HyspectraSSL.

Protein structure prediction is pivotal for understanding the structure-function relationship of proteins, advancing biological research, and facilitating pharmaceutical development and experimental design. While deep learning methods and the expanded availability of experimental 3D protein structures have accelerated structure prediction, the dynamic nature of protein structures has received limited attention. This study introduces an innovative 4D diffusion model incorporating molecular dynamics (MD) simulation data to learn dynamic protein structures. Our approach is distinguished by the following components: (1) a unified diffusion model capable of generating dynamic protein structures, including both the backbone and side chains, utilizing atomic grouping and side-chain dihedral angle predictions; (2) a reference network that enhances structural consistency by integrating the latent embeddings of the initial 3D protein structures; and (3) a motion alignment module aimed at improving temporal structural coherence across multiple time steps. To our knowledge, this is the first diffusion-based model aimed at predicting protein trajectories across multiple time steps simultaneously. Validation on benchmark datasets demonstrates that our model exhibits high accuracy in predicting dynamic 3D structures of proteins containing up to 256 amino acids over 32 time steps, effectively capturing both local flexibility in stable states and significant conformational changes.

Protolanguage reconstruction is central to historical linguistics. The comparative method, one of the most influential theoretical and methodological frameworks in the history of the language sciences, allows linguists to infer protoforms (reconstructed ancestral words) from their reflexes (related modern words) based on the assumption of regular sound change. Not surprisingly, numerous computational linguists have attempted to operationalize comparative reconstruction through various computational models, the most successful of which have been supervised encoder-decoder models, which treat the problem of predicting protoforms given sets of reflexes as a sequence-to-sequence problem. We argue that this framework ignores one of the most important aspects of the comparative method: not only should protoforms be inferable from cognate sets (sets of related reflexes) but the reflexes should also be inferable from the protoforms. Leveraging another line of research -- reflex prediction -- we propose a system in which candidate protoforms from a reconstruction model are reranked by a reflex prediction model. We show that this more complete implementation of the comparative method allows us to surpass state-of-the-art protoform reconstruction methods on three of four Chinese and Romance datasets.

Recognizing complex emotions linked to ambivalence and hesitancy (A/H) can play a critical role in the personalization and effectiveness of digital behaviour change interventions. These subtle and conflicting emotions are manifested by a discord between multiple modalities, such as facial and vocal expressions, and body language. Although experts can be trained to identify A/H, integrating them into digital interventions is costly and less effective. Automatic learning systems provide a cost-effective alternative that can adapt to individual users, and operate seamlessly within real-time, and resource-limited environments. However, there are currently no datasets available for the design of ML models to recognize A/H. This paper introduces a first Behavioural Ambivalence/Hesitancy (BAH) dataset collected for subject-based multimodal recognition of A/H in videos. It contains videos from 224 participants captured across 9 provinces in Canada, with different age, and ethnicity. Through our web platform, we recruited participants to answer 7 questions, some of which were designed to elicit A/H while recording themselves via webcam with microphone. BAH amounts to 1,118 videos for a total duration of 8.26 hours with 1.5 hours of A/H. Our behavioural team annotated timestamp segments to indicate where A/H occurs, and provide frame- and video-level annotations with the A/H cues. Video transcripts and their timestamps are also included, along with cropped and aligned faces in each frame, and a variety of participants meta-data. We include results baselines for BAH at frame- and video-level recognition in multi-modal setups, in addition to zero-shot prediction, and for personalization using unsupervised domain adaptation. The limited performance of baseline models highlights the challenges of recognizing A/H in real-world videos. The data, code, and pretrained weights are available.

Recently, a novel visual state space (VSS) model, referred to as Mamba, has demonstrated significant progress in modeling long sequences with linear complexity, comparable to Transformer models, thereby enhancing its adaptability for processing visual data. Although most methods aim to enhance the global receptive field by directly modifying Mamba's scanning mechanism, they tend to overlook the critical importance of local information in dense prediction tasks. Additionally, whether Mamba can effectively extract local features as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) do remains an open question that merits further investigation. In this paper, We propose a novel model, AtrousMamba, which effectively balances the extraction of fine-grained local details with the integration of global contextual information. Specifically, our method incorporates an atrous-window selective scan mechanism, enabling a gradual expansion of the scanning range with adjustable rates. This design shortens the distance between adjacent tokens, enabling the model to effectively capture fine-grained local features and global context. By leveraging the atrous window scan visual state space (AWVSS) module, we design dedicated end-to-end Mamba-based frameworks for binary change detection (BCD) and semantic change detection (SCD), referred to as AWMambaBCD and AWMambaSCD, respectively. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets show that the proposed framework outperforms existing CNN-based, Transformer-based, and Mamba-based methods. These findings clearly demonstrate that Mamba not only captures long-range dependencies in visual data but also effectively preserves fine-grained local details.

Recently, the Mamba architecture based on state space models has demonstrated remarkable performance in a series of natural language processing tasks and has been rapidly applied to remote sensing change detection (CD) tasks. However, most methods enhance the global receptive field by directly modifying the scanning mode of Mamba, neglecting the crucial role that local information plays in dense prediction tasks (e.g., binary CD). In this article, we propose a model called CDMamba, which effectively combines global and local features for handling binary CD tasks. Specifically, the Scaled Residual ConvMamba (SRCM) block is proposed to utilize the ability of Mamba to extract global features and convolution to enhance the local details to alleviate the issue that current Mamba-based methods lack detailed clues and are difficult to achieve fine detection in dense prediction tasks. Furthermore, considering the characteristics of bi-temporal feature interaction required for CD, the Adaptive Global Local Guided Fusion (AGLGF) block is proposed to dynamically facilitate the bi-temporal interaction guided by other temporal global/local features. Our intuition is that more discriminative change features can be acquired with the guidance of other temporal features. Extensive experiments on five datasets demonstrate that our proposed CDMamba is comparable to the current methods (such as the F1/IoU scores are improved by 2.10%/3.00% and 2.44%/2.91% on LEVIR+CD and CLCD, respectively). Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/zmoka-zht/CDMamba.

Text-guided image editing involves modifying a source image based on a language instruction and, typically, requires changes to only small local regions. However, existing approaches generate the entire target image rather than selectively regenerate only the intended editing areas. This results in (1) unnecessary computational costs and (2) a bias toward reconstructing non-editing regions, which compromises the quality of the intended edits. To resolve these limitations, we propose to formulate image editing as Next Editing-token Prediction (NEP) based on autoregressive image generation, where only regions that need to be edited are regenerated, thus avoiding unintended modification to the non-editing areas. To enable any-region editing, we propose to pre-train an any-order autoregressive text-to-image (T2I) model. Once trained, it is capable of zero-shot image editing and can be easily adapted to NEP for image editing, which achieves a new state-of-the-art on widely used image editing benchmarks. Moreover, our model naturally supports test-time scaling (TTS) through iteratively refining its generation in a zero-shot manner. The project page is: https://nep-bigai.github.io/

Early diagnosis of lung cancer is challenging due to biological uncertainty and the limited understanding of the biological mechanisms driving nodule progression. To address this, we propose Nodule-Aligned Multimodal (Latent) Diffusion (NAMD), a novel framework that predicts lung nodule progression by generating 1-year follow-up nodule computed tomography images with baseline scans and the patient's and nodule's Electronic Health Record (EHR). NAMD introduces a nodule-aligned latent space, where distances between latents directly correspond to changes in nodule attributes, and utilizes an LLM-driven control mechanism to condition the diffusion backbone on patient data. On the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) dataset, our method synthesizes follow-up nodule images that achieve an AUROC of 0.805 and an AUPRC of 0.346 for lung nodule malignancy prediction, significantly outperforming both baseline scans and state-of-the-art synthesis methods, while closely approaching the performance of real follow-up scans (AUROC: 0.819, AUPRC: 0.393). These results demonstrate that NAMD captures clinically relevant features of lung nodule progression, facilitating earlier and more accurate diagnosis.

High frequency pedestrian motion forecasting when interacting with autonomous vehicles (AVs) can be enhanced through the use of behavioural frameworks, such as discrete choice models, that can explicitly account for correlation among similar movement alternatives. We formulate the pedestrian next step choice as a spatial discrete choice defined by a grid of speed adjustment and heading change. Using naturalistic pedestrian-AV encounters from nuScenes and Argoverse 2 (1 sec decision interval), we estimate a multinomial logit baseline and four spatial generalized extreme value (GEV) specifications (SCL, GSCL, SCNL, and GSCNL). We then compare them to a residual neural network logit (ResLogit) model that learns cross alternative effects while retaining an interpretable linear utility component. Across the evaluated data, spatial GEV structures yield only marginal improvements over multinomial logit, whereas ResLogit achieves a substantially better fit and produces behaviourally coherent errors concentrated among neighbouring grid cells. The results suggest that in dense, high frequency spatial choice sets, learning based residual corrections can capture proximity induced correlation more effectively than analyst specified GEV nesting structures, while maintaining interpretability.

Predicting high-dimensional transcriptional responses to genetic perturbations is challenging due to severe experimental noise and sparse gene-level effects. Existing methods often suffer from mean collapse, where high correlation is achieved by predicting global average expression rather than perturbation-specific responses, leading to many false positives and limited biological interpretability. Recent approaches incorporate biological knowledge graphs into perturbation models, but these graphs are typically treated as dense and static, which can propagate noise and obscure true perturbation signals. We propose AdaPert, a perturbation-conditioned framework that addresses mean collapse by explicitly modeling sparsity and biological structure. AdaPert learns perturbation-specific subgraphs from biological knowledge graphs and applies adaptive learning to separate true signals from noise. Across multiple genetic perturbation benchmarks, AdaPert consistently outperforms existing baselines and achieves substantial improvements on DEG-aware evaluation metrics, indicating more accurate recovery of perturbation-specific transcriptional changes.

In this work, we focus on the challenge of temporally consistent human-centric dense prediction across video sequences. Existing models achieve strong per-frame accuracy but often flicker under motion, occlusion, and lighting changes, and they rarely have paired human video supervision for multiple dense tasks. We address this gap with a scalable synthetic data pipeline that generates photorealistic human frames and motion-aligned sequences with pixel-accurate depth, normals, and masks. Unlike prior static data synthetic pipelines, our pipeline provides both frame-level labels for spatial learning and sequence-level supervision for temporal learning. Building on this, we train a unified ViT-based dense predictor that (i) injects an explicit human geometric prior via CSE embeddings and (ii) improves geometry-feature reliability with a lightweight channel reweighting module after feature fusion. Our two-stage training strategy, combining static pretraining with dynamic sequence supervision, enables the model first to acquire robust spatial representations and then refine temporal consistency across motion-aligned sequences. Extensive experiments show that we achieve state-of-the-art performance on THuman2.1 and Hi4D and generalize effectively to in-the-wild videos.

We present a novel dual-head deep learning architecture for protein-protein interaction modeling that enables simultaneous prediction of binding affinity (ΔG) and mutation-induced affinity changes (ΔΔG) using only protein sequence information. Our approach offers a significant advancement over existing methods by employing specialized prediction heads that operate on a shared representation network, allowing direct and optimized prediction of both values. To ensure robust generalization, we integrated complementary datasets from SKEMPI v2 and PDBbind with a rigorous protein domain-based splitting strategy that prevents information leakage between training and validation sets. Our architecture combines transformer-based encoders with a novel cross-attention mechanism that processes paired protein sequences directly, without requiring any structural information. The network embeds input sequences using ESM3 representations, then employs a learnable sliced window embedding layer to manage variable-length sequences efficiently. A multi-layer transformer encoder with bidirectional self-attention captures intra-protein patterns, while cross-attention layers enable explicit modeling of interactions between protein pairs. This shared representation network feeds into separate ΔG and ΔΔG prediction heads, allowing task-specific optimization while leveraging common features. The model achieves ΔΔG validation of Pearson correlation at 0.485, while maintaining strong ΔG predictions (Pearson: 0.638). While existing approaches require protein structure data and binding interface information, our model eliminates these constraints. This provides a critical advantage for the numerous proteins with unknown structures or those challenging to crystallize, such as viral and intrinsically disordered proteins.

The expansion of the low-altitude economy has underscored the significance of Low-Altitude Network Coverage (LANC) prediction for designing aerial corridors. While accurate LANC forecasting hinges on the antenna beam patterns of Base Stations (BSs), these patterns are typically proprietary and not readily accessible. Operational parameters of BSs, which inherently contain beam information, offer an opportunity for data-driven low-altitude coverage prediction. However, collecting extensive low-altitude road test data is cost-prohibitive, often yielding only sparse samples per BS. This scarcity results in two primary challenges: imbalanced feature sampling due to limited variability in high-dimensional operational parameters against the backdrop of substantial changes in low-dimensional sampling locations, and diminished generalizability stemming from insufficient data samples. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce a dual strategy comprising expert knowledge-based feature compression and disentangled representation learning. The former reduces feature space complexity by leveraging communications expertise, while the latter enhances model generalizability through the integration of propagation models and distinct subnetworks that capture and aggregate the semantic representations of latent features. Experimental evaluation confirms the efficacy of our framework, yielding a 7% reduction in error compared to the best baseline algorithm. Real-network validations further attest to its reliability, achieving practical prediction accuracy with MAE errors at the 5dB level.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

Generating high-quality and diverse human images is an important yet challenging task in vision and graphics. However, existing generative models often fall short under the high diversity of clothing shapes and textures. Furthermore, the generation process is even desired to be intuitively controllable for layman users. In this work, we present a text-driven controllable framework, Text2Human, for a high-quality and diverse human generation. We synthesize full-body human images starting from a given human pose with two dedicated steps. 1) With some texts describing the shapes of clothes, the given human pose is first translated to a human parsing map. 2) The final human image is then generated by providing the system with more attributes about the textures of clothes. Specifically, to model the diversity of clothing textures, we build a hierarchical texture-aware codebook that stores multi-scale neural representations for each type of texture. The codebook at the coarse level includes the structural representations of textures, while the codebook at the fine level focuses on the details of textures. To make use of the learned hierarchical codebook to synthesize desired images, a diffusion-based transformer sampler with mixture of experts is firstly employed to sample indices from the coarsest level of the codebook, which then is used to predict the indices of the codebook at finer levels. The predicted indices at different levels are translated to human images by the decoder learned accompanied with hierarchical codebooks. The use of mixture-of-experts allows for the generated image conditioned on the fine-grained text input. The prediction for finer level indices refines the quality of clothing textures. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that our proposed framework can generate more diverse and realistic human images compared to state-of-the-art methods.

This study presents a new image super-resolution (SR) technique based on diffusion inversion, aiming at harnessing the rich image priors encapsulated in large pre-trained diffusion models to improve SR performance. We design a Partial noise Prediction strategy to construct an intermediate state of the diffusion model, which serves as the starting sampling point. Central to our approach is a deep noise predictor to estimate the optimal noise maps for the forward diffusion process. Once trained, this noise predictor can be used to initialize the sampling process partially along the diffusion trajectory, generating the desirable high-resolution result. Compared to existing approaches, our method offers a flexible and efficient sampling mechanism that supports an arbitrary number of sampling steps, ranging from one to five. Even with a single sampling step, our method demonstrates superior or comparable performance to recent state-of-the-art approaches. The code and model are publicly available at https://github.com/zsyOAOA/InvSR.

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) has made a remarkable breakthrough in open-vocabulary zero-shot image recognition. Many recent studies leverage the pre-trained CLIP models for image-level classification and manipulation. In this paper, we wish examine the intrinsic potential of CLIP for pixel-level dense prediction, specifically in semantic segmentation. To this end, with minimal modification, we show that MaskCLIP yields compelling segmentation results on open concepts across various datasets in the absence of annotations and fine-tuning. By adding pseudo labeling and self-training, MaskCLIP+ surpasses SOTA transductive zero-shot semantic segmentation methods by large margins, e.g., mIoUs of unseen classes on PASCAL VOC/PASCAL Context/COCO Stuff are improved from 35.6/20.7/30.3 to 86.1/66.7/54.7. We also test the robustness of MaskCLIP under input corruption and evaluate its capability in discriminating fine-grained objects and novel concepts. Our finding suggests that MaskCLIP can serve as a new reliable source of supervision for dense prediction tasks to achieve annotation-free segmentation. Source code is available at https://github.com/chongzhou96/MaskCLIP.

On top of Segment Anything Model (SAM), SAM 2 further extends its capability from image to video inputs through a memory bank mechanism and obtains a remarkable performance compared with previous methods, making it a foundation model for video segmentation task. In this paper, we aim at making SAM 2 much more efficient so that it even runs on mobile devices while maintaining a comparable performance. Despite several works optimizing SAM for better efficiency, we find they are not sufficient for SAM 2 because they all focus on compressing the image encoder, while our benchmark shows that the newly introduced memory attention blocks are also the latency bottleneck. Given this observation, we propose EdgeTAM, which leverages a novel 2D Spatial Perceiver to reduce the computational cost. In particular, the proposed 2D Spatial Perceiver encodes the densely stored frame-level memories with a lightweight Transformer that contains a fixed set of learnable queries. Given that video segmentation is a dense prediction task, we find preserving the spatial structure of the memories is essential so that the queries are split into global-level and patch-level groups. We also propose a distillation pipeline that further improves the performance without inference overhead. As a result, EdgeTAM achieves 87.7, 70.0, 72.3, and 71.7 J&F on DAVIS 2017, MOSE, SA-V val, and SA-V test, while running at 16 FPS on iPhone 15 Pro Max.

Blind face restoration is a highly ill-posed problem that often requires auxiliary guidance to 1) improve the mapping from degraded inputs to desired outputs, or 2) complement high-quality details lost in the inputs. In this paper, we demonstrate that a learned discrete codebook prior in a small proxy space largely reduces the uncertainty and ambiguity of restoration mapping by casting blind face restoration as a code prediction task, while providing rich visual atoms for generating high-quality faces. Under this paradigm, we propose a Transformer-based prediction network, named CodeFormer, to model the global composition and context of the low-quality faces for code prediction, enabling the discovery of natural faces that closely approximate the target faces even when the inputs are severely degraded. To enhance the adaptiveness for different degradation, we also propose a controllable feature transformation module that allows a flexible trade-off between fidelity and quality. Thanks to the expressive codebook prior and global modeling, CodeFormer outperforms the state of the arts in both quality and fidelity, showing superior robustness to degradation. Extensive experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets verify the effectiveness of our method.

We present STream3R, a novel approach to 3D reconstruction that reformulates pointmap prediction as a decoder-only Transformer problem. Existing state-of-the-art methods for multi-view reconstruction either depend on expensive global optimization or rely on simplistic memory mechanisms that scale poorly with sequence length. In contrast, STream3R introduces an streaming framework that processes image sequences efficiently using causal attention, inspired by advances in modern language modeling. By learning geometric priors from large-scale 3D datasets, STream3R generalizes well to diverse and challenging scenarios, including dynamic scenes where traditional methods often fail. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently outperforms prior work across both static and dynamic scene benchmarks. Moreover, STream3R is inherently compatible with LLM-style training infrastructure, enabling efficient large-scale pretraining and fine-tuning for various downstream 3D tasks. Our results underscore the potential of causal Transformer models for online 3D perception, paving the way for real-time 3D understanding in streaming environments. More details can be found in our project page: https://nirvanalan.github.io/projects/stream3r.

Prediction models can exhibit sensitivity with respect to training data: small changes in the training data can produce models that assign conflicting predictions to individual data points during test time. In this work, we study this sensitivity in recommender systems, where users' recommendations are drastically altered by minor perturbations in other unrelated users' interactions. We introduce a measure of stability for recommender systems, called Rank List Sensitivity (RLS), which measures how rank lists generated by a given recommender system at test time change as a result of a perturbation in the training data. We develop a method, CASPER, which uses cascading effect to identify the minimal and systematical perturbation to induce higher instability in a recommender system. Experiments on four datasets show that recommender models are overly sensitive to minor perturbations introduced randomly or via CASPER - even perturbing one random interaction of one user drastically changes the recommendation lists of all users. Importantly, with CASPER perturbation, the models generate more unstable recommendations for low-accuracy users (i.e., those who receive low-quality recommendations) than high-accuracy ones.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Machine learning has promised to change the landscape of laboratory chemistry, with impressive results in molecular property prediction and reaction retro-synthesis. However, chemical datasets are often inaccessible to the machine learning community as they tend to require cleaning, thorough understanding of the chemistry, or are simply not available. In this paper, we introduce a novel dataset for yield prediction, providing the first-ever transient flow dataset for machine learning benchmarking, covering over 1200 process conditions. While previous datasets focus on discrete parameters, our experimental set-up allow us to sample a large number of continuous process conditions, generating new challenges for machine learning models. We focus on solvent selection, a task that is particularly difficult to model theoretically and therefore ripe for machine learning applications. We showcase benchmarking for regression algorithms, transfer-learning approaches, feature engineering, and active learning, with important applications towards solvent replacement and sustainable manufacturing.

Diffusion Transformers (DiT) have emerged as a widely adopted backbone for high-fidelity image and video generation, yet their iterative denoising process incurs high computational costs. Existing training-free acceleration methods rely on feature caching and reuse under the assumption of temporal stability. However, reusing features for multiple steps may lead to latent drift and visual degradation. We observe that model outputs evolve smoothly along much of the diffusion trajectory, enabling principled predictions rather than naive reuse. Based on this insight, we propose PrediT, a training-free acceleration framework that formulates feature prediction as a linear multistep problem. We employ classical linear multistep methods to forecast future model outputs from historical information, combined with a corrector that activates in high-dynamics regions to prevent error accumulation. A dynamic step modulation mechanism adaptively adjusts the prediction horizon by monitoring the feature change rate. Together, these components enable substantial acceleration while preserving generation fidelity. Extensive experiments validate that our method achieves up to 5.54times latency reduction across various DiT-based image and video generation models, while incurring negligible quality degradation.

Autoregressive next token prediction language models offer powerful capabilities but face significant challenges in practical deployment due to the high computational and memory costs of inference, particularly during the decoding stage. We introduce Set Block Decoding (SBD), a simple and flexible paradigm that accelerates generation by integrating standard next token prediction (NTP) and masked token prediction (MATP) within a single architecture. SBD allows the model to sample multiple, not necessarily consecutive, future tokens in parallel, a key distinction from previous acceleration methods. This flexibility allows the use of advanced solvers from the discrete diffusion literature, offering significant speedups without sacrificing accuracy. SBD requires no architectural changes or extra training hyperparameters, maintains compatibility with exact KV-caching, and can be implemented by fine-tuning existing next token prediction models. By fine-tuning Llama-3.1 8B and Qwen-3 8B, we demonstrate that SBD enables a 3-5x reduction in the number of forward passes required for generation while achieving same performance as equivalent NTP training.

Recent advances in Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have made it possible to reconstruct and reanimate dynamic portrait scenes with control over head-pose, facial expressions and viewing direction. However, training such models assumes photometric consistency over the deformed region e.g. the face must be evenly lit as it deforms with changing head-pose and facial expression. Such photometric consistency across frames of a video is hard to maintain, even in studio environments, thus making the created reanimatable neural portraits prone to artifacts during reanimation. In this work, we propose CoDyNeRF, a system that enables the creation of fully controllable 3D portraits in real-world capture conditions. CoDyNeRF learns to approximate illumination dependent effects via a dynamic appearance model in the canonical space that is conditioned on predicted surface normals and the facial expressions and head-pose deformations. The surface normals prediction is guided using 3DMM normals that act as a coarse prior for the normals of the human head, where direct prediction of normals is hard due to rigid and non-rigid deformations induced by head-pose and facial expression changes. Using only a smartphone-captured short video of a subject for training, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on free view synthesis of a portrait scene with explicit head pose and expression controls, and realistic lighting effects. The project page can be found here: http://shahrukhathar.github.io/2023/08/22/CoDyNeRF.html

Diffusion-based world models have shown strong potential for unified world simulation, but the iterative denoising remains too costly for interactive use and long-horizon rollouts. While feature caching can accelerate inference without training, we find that policies designed for single-modal diffusion transfer poorly to world models due to two world-model-specific obstacles: token heterogeneity from multi-modal coupling and spatial variation, and non-uniform temporal dynamics where a small set of hard tokens drives error growth, making uniform skipping either unstable or overly conservative. We propose WorldCache, a caching framework tailored to diffusion world models. We introduce Curvature-guided Heterogeneous Token Prediction, which uses a physics-grounded curvature score to estimate token predictability and applies a Hermite-guided damped predictor for chaotic tokens with abrupt direction changes. We also design Chaotic-prioritized Adaptive Skipping, which accumulates a curvature-normalized, dimensionless drift signal and recomputes only when bottleneck tokens begin to drift. Experiments on diffusion world models show that WorldCache delivers up to 3.7times end-to-end speedups while maintaining 98\% rollout quality, demonstrating the vast advantages and practicality of WorldCache in resource-constrained scenarios. Our code is released in https://github.com/FofGofx/WorldCache.

Objective: Forecasting epileptic seizures can reduce uncertainty for patients and allow preventative actions. While many models can predict the occurrence of seizures from features of the EEG, few models incorporate changes in features over time. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks are a machine learning architecture that can display temporal dynamics due to the recurrent connections. In this paper, we used LSTMs to monitor changes in EEG features over time to improve the accuracy of seizure forecasts and to alter the time window of the forecast. Methods: Long-term intracranial EEG recordings from eight patients from the NeuroVista dataset were used. A Fourier transform of 1-minute segments of EEG was fed into a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The outputs from the CNN were input to three different LSTM models at different time intervals: 1 minute, 1 hour and 1 day. The LSTM model outputs were used to predict seizure onset within a time window. The prediction and start of the time window were separated by the same length of time as the window. Window sizes tested included 2, 4, 10, 20 and 40 minutes. Results and Conclusion: Our model forecast seizure onsets well above a random predictor. Compared to other models using the same dataset, our model performed better for some patients and worse for others. Monitoring the change in EEG features over time allowed our model to produce good results over a range of different window sizes, which is an improvement on previous models and raises the possibility of altering the forecast to meet individual patient needs. Furthermore, a window size of 40 minutes provides a potential intervention time of 40 minutes, which is the first time an intervention time of more than 5 minutes have been forecast using long-term EEG recordings.

Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the incremental progress in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) known as the 'quiet revolution' of weather forecasting. The computational cost of running a forecast with standard NWP systems greatly hinders the improvements that can be made from increasing model resolution and ensemble sizes. An emerging new generation of ML models, developed using high-quality reanalysis datasets like ERA5 for training, allow forecasts that require much lower computational costs and that are highly-competitive in terms of accuracy. Here, we compare for the first time ML-generated forecasts with standard NWP-based forecasts in an operational-like context, initialized from the same initial conditions. Focusing on deterministic forecasts, we apply common forecast verification tools to assess to what extent a data-driven forecast produced with one of the recently developed ML models (PanguWeather) matches the quality and attributes of a forecast from one of the leading global NWP systems (the ECMWF IFS). The results are very promising, with comparable skill for both global metrics and extreme events, when verified against both the operational analysis and synoptic observations. Increasing forecast smoothness and bias drift with forecast lead time are identified as current drawbacks of ML-based forecasts. A new NWP paradigm is emerging relying on inference from ML models and state-of-the-art analysis and reanalysis datasets for forecast initialization and model training.

In data poisoning attacks, an adversary tries to change a model's prediction by adding, modifying, or removing samples in the training data. Recently, ensemble-based approaches for obtaining provable defenses against data poisoning have been proposed where predictions are done by taking a majority vote across multiple base models. In this work, we show that merely considering the majority vote in ensemble defenses is wasteful as it does not effectively utilize available information in the logits layers of the base models. Instead, we propose Run-Off Election (ROE), a novel aggregation method based on a two-round election across the base models: In the first round, models vote for their preferred class and then a second, Run-Off election is held between the top two classes in the first round. Based on this approach, we propose DPA+ROE and FA+ROE defense methods based on Deep Partition Aggregation (DPA) and Finite Aggregation (FA) approaches from prior work. We evaluate our methods on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and GTSRB and obtain improvements in certified accuracy by up to 3%-4%. Also, by applying ROE on a boosted version of DPA, we gain improvements around 12%-27% comparing to the current state-of-the-art, establishing a new state-of-the-art in (pointwise) certified robustness against data poisoning. In many cases, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, even when using 32 times less computational power.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

Generic Event Boundary Detection (GEBD) aims to interpret long-form videos through the lens of human perception. However, current GEBD methods require processing complete video frames to make predictions, unlike humans processing data online and in real-time. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new task, Online Generic Event Boundary Detection (On-GEBD), aiming to detect boundaries of generic events immediately in streaming videos. This task faces unique challenges of identifying subtle, taxonomy-free event changes in real-time, without the access to future frames. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel On-GEBD framework, Estimator, inspired by Event Segmentation Theory (EST) which explains how humans segment ongoing activity into events by leveraging the discrepancies between predicted and actual information. Our framework consists of two key components: the Consistent Event Anticipator (CEA), and the Online Boundary Discriminator (OBD). Specifically, the CEA generates a prediction of the future frame reflecting current event dynamics based solely on prior frames. Then, the OBD measures the prediction error and adaptively adjusts the threshold using statistical tests on past errors to capture diverse, subtle event transitions. Experimental results demonstrate that Estimator outperforms all baselines adapted from recent online video understanding models and achieves performance comparable to prior offline-GEBD methods on the Kinetics-GEBD and TAPOS datasets.

Modern machine learning models are sensitive to the manipulation of both the training data (poisoning attacks) and inference data (adversarial examples). Recognizing this issue, the community has developed many empirical defenses against both attacks and, more recently, provable certification methods against inference-time attacks. However, such guarantees are still largely lacking for training-time attacks. In this work, we present FullCert, the first end-to-end certifier with sound, deterministic bounds, which proves robustness against both training-time and inference-time attacks. We first bound all possible perturbations an adversary can make to the training data under the considered threat model. Using these constraints, we bound the perturbations' influence on the model's parameters. Finally, we bound the impact of these parameter changes on the model's prediction, resulting in joint robustness guarantees against poisoning and adversarial examples. To facilitate this novel certification paradigm, we combine our theoretical work with a new open-source library BoundFlow, which enables model training on bounded datasets. We experimentally demonstrate FullCert's feasibility on two different datasets.

Understanding how the surrounding environment changes is crucial for performing downstream tasks safely and reliably in autonomous driving applications. Recent occupancy estimation techniques using only camera images as input can provide dense occupancy representations of large-scale scenes based on the current observation. However, they are mostly limited to representing the current 3D space and do not consider the future state of surrounding objects along the time axis. To extend camera-only occupancy estimation into spatiotemporal prediction, we propose Cam4DOcc, a new benchmark for camera-only 4D occupancy forecasting, evaluating the surrounding scene changes in a near future. We build our benchmark based on multiple publicly available datasets, including nuScenes, nuScenes-Occupancy, and Lyft-Level5, which provides sequential occupancy states of general movable and static objects, as well as their 3D backward centripetal flow. To establish this benchmark for future research with comprehensive comparisons, we introduce four baseline types from diverse camera-based perception and prediction implementations, including a static-world occupancy model, voxelization of point cloud prediction, 2D-3D instance-based prediction, and our proposed novel end-to-end 4D occupancy forecasting network. Furthermore, the standardized evaluation protocol for preset multiple tasks is also provided to compare the performance of all the proposed baselines on present and future occupancy estimation with respect to objects of interest in autonomous driving scenarios. The dataset and our implementation of all four baselines in the proposed Cam4DOcc benchmark will be released here: https://github.com/haomo-ai/Cam4DOcc.

Manipulation of elastoplastic objects like dough often involves topological changes such as splitting and merging. The ability to accurately predict these topological changes that a specific action might incur is critical for planning interactions with elastoplastic objects. We present DoughNet, a Transformer-based architecture for handling these challenges, consisting of two components. First, a denoising autoencoder represents deformable objects of varying topology as sets of latent codes. Second, a visual predictive model performs autoregressive set prediction to determine long-horizon geometrical deformation and topological changes purely in latent space. Given a partial initial state and desired manipulation trajectories, it infers all resulting object geometries and topologies at each step. DoughNet thereby allows to plan robotic manipulation; selecting a suited tool, its pose and opening width to recreate robot- or human-made goals. Our experiments in simulated and real environments show that DoughNet is able to significantly outperform related approaches that consider deformation only as geometrical change.

Data-driven research on the automated discovery and repair of security vulnerabilities in source code requires comprehensive datasets of real-life vulnerable code and their fixes. To assist in such research, we propose a method to automatically collect and curate a comprehensive vulnerability dataset from Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) records in the public National Vulnerability Database (NVD). We implement our approach in a fully automated dataset collection tool and share an initial release of the resulting vulnerability dataset named CVEfixes. The CVEfixes collection tool automatically fetches all available CVE records from the NVD, gathers the vulnerable code and corresponding fixes from associated open-source repositories, and organizes the collected information in a relational database. Moreover, the dataset is enriched with meta-data such as programming language, and detailed code and security metrics at five levels of abstraction. The collection can easily be repeated to keep up-to-date with newly discovered or patched vulnerabilities. The initial release of CVEfixes spans all published CVEs up to 9 June 2021, covering 5365 CVE records for 1754 open-source projects that were addressed in a total of 5495 vulnerability fixing commits. CVEfixes supports various types of data-driven software security research, such as vulnerability prediction, vulnerability classification, vulnerability severity prediction, analysis of vulnerability-related code changes, and automated vulnerability repair.

We study the task of language instruction-guided robotic manipulation, in which an embodied robot is supposed to manipulate the target objects based on the language instructions. In previous studies, the predicted manipulation regions of the target object typically do not change with specification from the language instructions, which means that the language perception and manipulation prediction are separate. However, in human behavioral patterns, the manipulation regions of the same object will change for different language instructions. In this paper, we propose Instruction-Guided Affordance Net (IGANet) for predicting affordance maps of instruction-guided robotic manipulation tasks by utilizing powerful priors from vision and language encoders pre-trained on large-scale datasets. We develop a Vison-Language-Models(VLMs)-based data augmentation pipeline, which can generate a large amount of data automatically for model training. Besides, with the help of Large-Language-Models(LLMs), actions can be effectively executed to finish the tasks defined by instructions. A series of real-world experiments revealed that our method can achieve better performance with generated data. Moreover, our model can generalize better to scenarios with unseen objects and language instructions.

Understanding fine-grained temporal dynamics is crucial for multimodal video comprehension and generation. Due to the lack of fine-grained temporal annotations, existing video benchmarks mostly resemble static image benchmarks and are incompetent at evaluating models for temporal understanding. In this paper, we introduce TemporalBench, a new benchmark dedicated to evaluating fine-grained temporal understanding in videos. TemporalBench consists of ~10K video question-answer pairs, derived from ~2K high-quality human annotations detailing the temporal dynamics in video clips. As a result, our benchmark provides a unique testbed for evaluating various temporal understanding and reasoning abilities such as action frequency, motion magnitude, event order, etc. Moreover, it enables evaluations on various tasks like both video question answering and captioning, both short and long video understanding, as well as different models such as multimodal video embedding models and text generation models. Results show that state-of-the-art models like GPT-4o achieve only 38.5% question answering accuracy on TemporalBench, demonstrating a significant gap (~30%) between humans and AI in temporal understanding. Furthermore, we notice a critical pitfall for multi-choice QA where LLMs can detect the subtle changes in negative captions and find a centralized description as a cue for its prediction, where we propose Multiple Binary Accuracy (MBA) to correct such bias. We hope that TemporalBench can foster research on improving models' temporal reasoning capabilities. Both dataset and evaluation code will be made available.

During surgical training, real-time feedback from trainers to trainees is important for preventing errors and enhancing long-term skill acquisition. Accurately predicting the effectiveness of this feedback, specifically whether it leads to a change in trainee behavior, is crucial for developing methods for improving surgical training and education. However, relying on human annotations to assess feedback effectiveness is laborious and prone to biases, underscoring the need for an automated, scalable, and objective method. Creating such an automated system poses challenges, as it requires an understanding of both the verbal feedback delivered by the trainer and the visual context of the real-time surgical scene. To address this, we propose a method that integrates information from transcribed verbal feedback and corresponding surgical video to predict feedback effectiveness. Our findings show that both transcribed feedback and surgical video are individually predictive of trainee behavior changes, and their combination achieves an AUROC of 0.70+/-0.02, improving prediction accuracy by up to 6.6%. Additionally, we introduce self-supervised fine-tuning as a strategy for enhancing surgical video representation learning, which is scalable and further enhances prediction performance. Our results demonstrate the potential of multi-modal learning to advance the automated assessment of surgical feedback.

Monocular metric depth estimation (MMDE) is a crucial task to solve for indoor scene reconstruction on edge devices. Despite this importance, existing models are sensitive to factors such as boundary frequency of objects in the scene and scene complexity, failing to fully capture many indoor scenes. In this work, we propose to close this gap through the task of monocular metric depth refinement (MMDR) by leveraging state-of-the-art MMDE models. MultiDepth proposes a solution by taking samples of the image along with the initial depth map prediction made by a pre-trained MMDE model. Compared to existing iterative depth refinement techniques, MultiDepth does not employ normal map prediction as part of its architecture, effectively lowering the model size and computation overhead while outputting impactful changes from refining iterations. MultiDepth implements a lightweight encoder-decoder architecture for the refinement network, processing multiple samples from the given image, including segmentation masking. We evaluate MultiDepth on four datasets and compare them to state-of-the-art methods to demonstrate its effective refinement with minimal overhead, displaying accuracy improvement upward of 45%.

This paper investigates how Transformer language models (LMs) fine-tuned for acceptability classification capture linguistic features. Our approach uses the best practices of topological data analysis (TDA) in NLP: we construct directed attention graphs from attention matrices, derive topological features from them, and feed them to linear classifiers. We introduce two novel features, chordality, and the matching number, and show that TDA-based classifiers outperform fine-tuning baselines. We experiment with two datasets, CoLA and RuCoLA in English and Russian, typologically different languages. On top of that, we propose several black-box introspection techniques aimed at detecting changes in the attention mode of the LMs during fine-tuning, defining the LM's prediction confidences, and associating individual heads with fine-grained grammar phenomena. Our results contribute to understanding the behavior of monolingual LMs in the acceptability classification task, provide insights into the functional roles of attention heads, and highlight the advantages of TDA-based approaches for analyzing LMs. We release the code and the experimental results for further uptake.

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained for semantic segmentation of tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers in climate data. Our primary focus is on tropical cyclones, the most destructive weather events, for which current models show limited performance. We investigate feature engineering, data augmentation, learning rate modifications, alternative loss functions, and architectural changes. In contrast to previous approaches optimizing for intersection over union, we specifically seek to improve recall to penalize under-counting and prioritize identification of tropical cyclones. We report success through the use of weighted loss functions to counter class imbalance for these rare events. We conclude with directions for future research on extreme weather events detection, a crucial task for prediction, mitigation, and equitable adaptation to the impacts of climate change.

Deep Neural Networks lead the state of the art of computer vision tasks. Despite this, Neural Networks are brittle in that small changes in the input can drastically affect their prediction outcome and confidence. Consequently and naturally, research in this area mainly focus on adversarial attacks and defenses. In this paper, we take an alternative stance and introduce the concept of Assistive Signals, which are optimized to improve a model's confidence score regardless if it's under attack or not. We analyse some interesting properties of these assistive perturbations and extend the idea to optimize assistive signals in the 3D space for real-life scenarios simulating different lighting conditions and viewing angles. Experimental evaluations show that the assistive signals generated by our optimization method increase the accuracy and confidence of deep models more than those generated by conventional methods that work in the 2D space. In addition, our Assistive Signals illustrate the intrinsic bias of ML models towards certain patterns in real-life objects. We discuss how we can exploit these insights to re-think, or avoid, some patterns that might contribute to, or degrade, the detectability of objects in the real-world.

We discover that common diffusion noise schedules do not enforce the last timestep to have zero signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and some implementations of diffusion samplers do not start from the last timestep. Such designs are flawed and do not reflect the fact that the model is given pure Gaussian noise at inference, creating a discrepancy between training and inference. We show that the flawed design causes real problems in existing implementations. In Stable Diffusion, it severely limits the model to only generate images with medium brightness and prevents it from generating very bright and dark samples. We propose a few simple fixes: (1) rescale the noise schedule to enforce zero terminal SNR; (2) train the model with v prediction; (3) change the sampler to always start from the last timestep; (4) rescale classifier-free guidance to prevent over-exposure. These simple changes ensure the diffusion process is congruent between training and inference and allow the model to generate samples more faithful to the original data distribution.

Large language models excel at reasoning but lack key aspects of introspection, including anticipating their own success and the computation required to achieve it. Humans use real-time introspection to decide how much effort to invest, when to make multiple attempts, when to stop, and when to signal success or failure. Without this, LLMs struggle to make intelligent meta-cognition decisions. Test-time scaling methods like Best-of-N drive up cost and latency by using a fixed budget of samples regardless of the marginal benefit of each one at any point in generation, and the absence of confidence signals can mislead people, prevent appropriate escalation to better tools, and undermine trustworthiness. Learned verifiers or reward models can provide confidence estimates, but do not enable adaptive inference and add substantial cost by requiring extra models or forward passes. We present ZIP-RC, which equips models with zero-overhead introspective predictions of reward and cost. At every token, ZIP-RC reuses reserved or unused logits in the same forward pass as next-token prediction to output a joint distribution over final reward and remaining length -- no extra models, architecture change, or inference overhead. This full joint distribution is used to compute a sampling utility which is the linear combination of the expected maximum reward, total compute, and latency of set of samples if generated to completion. During inference, we maximize this utility with meta-actions that determine which prefix of tokens to continue or initiate sampling from. On mixed-difficulty mathematical benchmarks, ZIP-RC improves accuracy by up to 12% over majority voting at equal or lower average cost, and traces smooth Pareto frontiers between quality, compute, and latency. By providing real-time reward-cost introspection, ZIP-RC enables adaptive, efficient reasoning.

This work describes a process for efficiently fine-tuning the GraphCast data-driven forecast model to simulate another analysis system, here the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Using two years of training data (July 2019 -- December 2021) and 37 GPU-days of computation to tune the 37-level, quarter-degree version of GraphCast, the resulting model significantly outperforms both the unmodified GraphCast and operational forecast, showing significant forecast skill in the troposphere over lead times from 1 to 10 days. This fine-tuning is accomplished through abbreviating DeepMind's original training curriculum for GraphCast, relying on a shorter single-step forecast stage to accomplish the bulk of the adaptation work and consolidating the autoregressive stages into separate 12hr, 1d, 2d, and 3d stages with larger learning rates. Additionally, training over 3d forecasts is split into two sub-steps to conserve host memory while maintaining a strong correlation with training over the full period.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

Machine learning (ML) offers transformative potential for computational fluid dynamics (CFD), promising to accelerate simulations, improve turbulence modelling, and enable real-time flow prediction and control-capabilities that could fundamentally change how engineers approach fluid dynamics problems. However, the exploration of ML in fluid dynamics is critically hampered by the scarcity of large, diverse, and high-fidelity datasets suitable for training robust models. This limitation is particularly acute for highly turbulent flows, which dominate practical engineering applications yet remain computationally prohibitive to simulate at scale. High-Reynolds number turbulent datasets are essential for ML models to learn the complex, multi-scale physics characteristic of real-world flows, enabling generalisation beyond the simplified, low-Reynolds number regimes often represented in existing datasets. This paper introduces WAKESET, a novel, large-scale CFD dataset of highly turbulent flows, designed to address this critical gap. The dataset captures the complex hydrodynamic interactions during the underwater recovery of an autonomous underwater vehicle by a larger extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle. It comprises 1,091 high-fidelity Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, augmented to 4,364 instances, covering a wide operational envelope of speeds (up to Reynolds numbers of 1.09 x 10^8) and turning angles. This work details the motivation for this new dataset by reviewing existing resources, outlines the hydrodynamic modelling and validation underpinning its creation, and describes its structure. The dataset's focus on a practical engineering problem, its scale, and its high turbulence characteristics make it a valuable resource for developing and benchmarking ML models for flow field prediction, surrogate modelling, and autonomous navigation in complex underwater environments.

Model-learning agents should gather information to learn world models that support many downstream tasks and inferences, such as predicting unobserved states, estimating near- and far-term consequences of actions, planning action sequences, and detecting changes in dynamics. Current methods for learning and evaluating world models diverge from this goal: training and evaluation are anchored to next-frame prediction, and success is scored by reward maximization in the same environment. We propose WorldTest, a protocol to evaluate model-learning agents that separates reward-free interaction from a scored test phase in a different but related environment. WorldTest is open-endedx2014models should support many different tasks unknown ahead of timex2014and agnostic to model representation, allowing comparison across approaches. We instantiated WorldTest with AutumnBench, a suite of 43 interactive grid-world environments and 129 tasks across three families: masked-frame prediction, planning, and predicting changes to the causal dynamics. We compared 517 human participants and three frontier models on AutumnBench. We found that humans outperform the models, and scaling compute improves performance only in some environments but not others. WorldTest provides a novel templatex2014reward-free exploration, derived tests, and behavior-based scoringx2014to evaluate what agents learn about environment dynamics, and AutumnBench exposes significant headroom in world-model learning.

Implicit Neural Representations (INRs) have recently demonstrated impressive performance for video compression. However, since a separate INR must be overfit for each video, scaling to high-resolution videos while maintaining encoding efficiency remains a significant challenge. Hypernetwork-based approaches predict INR weights (hyponetworks) for unseen videos at high speeds, but with low quality, large compressed size, and prohibitive memory needs at higher resolutions. We address these fundamental limitations through three key contributions: (1) an approach that decomposes the weight prediction task spatially and temporally, by breaking short video segments into patch tubelets, to reduce the pretraining memory overhead by 20times; (2) a residual-based storage scheme that captures only differences between consecutive segment representations, significantly reducing bitstream size; and (3) a temporal coherence regularization framework that encourages changes in the weight space to be correlated with video content. Our proposed method, TeCoNeRV, achieves substantial improvements of 2.47dB and 5.35dB PSNR over the baseline at 480p and 720p on UVG, with 36% lower bitrates and 1.5-3times faster encoding speeds. With our low memory usage, we are the first hypernetwork approach to demonstrate results at 480p, 720p and 1080p on UVG, HEVC and MCL-JCV. Our project page is available at https://namithap10.github.io/teconerv/ .

Large-scale video generation models have the inherent ability to realistically model natural scenes. In this paper, we demonstrate that through a careful design of a generative video propagation framework, various video tasks can be addressed in a unified way by leveraging the generative power of such models. Specifically, our framework, GenProp, encodes the original video with a selective content encoder and propagates the changes made to the first frame using an image-to-video generation model. We propose a data generation scheme to cover multiple video tasks based on instance-level video segmentation datasets. Our model is trained by incorporating a mask prediction decoder head and optimizing a region-aware loss to aid the encoder to preserve the original content while the generation model propagates the modified region. This novel design opens up new possibilities: In editing scenarios, GenProp allows substantial changes to an object's shape; for insertion, the inserted objects can exhibit independent motion; for removal, GenProp effectively removes effects like shadows and reflections from the whole video; for tracking, GenProp is capable of tracking objects and their associated effects together. Experiment results demonstrate the leading performance of our model in various video tasks, and we further provide in-depth analyses of the proposed framework.

In this paper, we study the problem of generating obstinate (over-stability) adversarial examples by word substitution in NLP, where input text is meaningfully changed but the model's prediction does not, even though it should. Previous word substitution approaches have predominantly focused on manually designed antonym-based strategies for generating obstinate adversarial examples, which hinders its application as these strategies can only find a subset of obstinate adversarial examples and require human efforts. To address this issue, in this paper, we introduce a novel word substitution method named GradObstinate, a gradient-based approach that automatically generates obstinate adversarial examples without any constraints on the search space or the need for manual design principles. To empirically evaluate the efficacy of GradObstinate, we conduct comprehensive experiments on five representative models (Electra, ALBERT, Roberta, DistillBERT, and CLIP) finetuned on four NLP benchmarks (SST-2, MRPC, SNLI, and SQuAD) and a language-grounding benchmark (MSCOCO). Extensive experiments show that our proposed GradObstinate generates more powerful obstinate adversarial examples, exhibiting a higher attack success rate compared to antonym-based methods. Furthermore, to show the transferability of obstinate word substitutions found by GradObstinate, we replace the words in four representative NLP benchmarks with their obstinate substitutions. Notably, obstinate substitutions exhibit a high success rate when transferred to other models in black-box settings, including even GPT-3 and ChatGPT. Examples of obstinate adversarial examples found by GradObstinate are available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/anonauthors/SecretLanguage.

Recently, dense contrastive learning has shown superior performance on dense prediction tasks compared to instance-level contrastive learning. Despite its supremacy, the properties of dense contrastive representations have not yet been carefully studied. Therefore, we analyze the theoretical ideas of dense contrastive learning using a standard CNN and straightforward feature matching scheme rather than propose a new complex method. Inspired by the analysis of the properties of instance-level contrastive representations through the lens of alignment and uniformity on the hypersphere, we employ and extend the same lens for the dense contrastive representations to analyze their underexplored properties. We discover the core principle in constructing a positive pair of dense features and empirically proved its validity. Also, we introduces a new scalar metric that summarizes the correlation between alignment-and-uniformity and downstream performance. Using this metric, we study various facets of densely learned contrastive representations such as how the correlation changes over single- and multi-object datasets or linear evaluation and dense prediction tasks. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/SuperSupermoon/DenseCL-analysis

This work studies how to adaptively recompute key-value (KV) caches for diffusion large language models (DLMs) to maximize prediction accuracy while minimizing decoding latency. Prior methods' decoders recompute QKV for all tokens at every denoising step and layer, despite KV states changing little across most steps, especially in shallow layers, leading to substantial redundancy. We make three observations: (1) distant {bf MASK} tokens primarily act as a length-bias and can be cached block-wise beyond the active prediction window; (2) KV dynamics increase with depth, suggesting that selective refresh starting from deeper layers is sufficient; and (3) the most-attended token exhibits the smallest KV drift, providing a conservative lower bound on cache change for other tokens. Building on these, we propose {bf Elastic-Cache}, a training-free, architecture-agnostic strategy that jointly decides {when} to refresh (via an attention-aware drift test on the most-attended token) and {where} to refresh (via a depth-aware schedule that recomputes from a chosen layer onward while reusing shallow-layer caches and off-window MASK caches). Unlike fixed-period schemes, Elastic-Cache performs adaptive, layer-aware cache updates for diffusion LLMs, reducing redundant computation and accelerating decoding with negligible loss in generation quality. Experiments on LLaDA-Instruct, LLaDA-1.5, and LLaDA-V across mathematical reasoning and code generation tasks demonstrate consistent speedups: 8.7times on GSM8K (256 tokens), 45.1times on longer sequences, and 4.8times on HumanEval, while consistently maintaining higher accuracy than the baseline. Our method achieves significantly higher throughput (6.8times on GSM8K) than existing confidence-based approaches while preserving generation quality, enabling practical deployment of diffusion LLMs.

Simulating and controlling physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) are crucial tasks across science and engineering. Recently, diffusion generative models have emerged as a competitive class of methods for these tasks due to their ability to capture long-term dependencies and model high-dimensional states. However, diffusion models typically struggle with handling system states with abrupt changes and generalizing to higher resolutions. In this work, we propose Wavelet Diffusion Neural Operator (WDNO), a novel PDE simulation and control framework that enhances the handling of these complexities. WDNO comprises two key innovations. Firstly, WDNO performs diffusion-based generative modeling in the wavelet domain for the entire trajectory to handle abrupt changes and long-term dependencies effectively. Secondly, to address the issue of poor generalization across different resolutions, which is one of the fundamental tasks in modeling physical systems, we introduce multi-resolution training. We validate WDNO on five physical systems, including 1D advection equation, three challenging physical systems with abrupt changes (1D Burgers' equation, 1D compressible Navier-Stokes equation and 2D incompressible fluid), and a real-world dataset ERA5, which demonstrates superior performance on both simulation and control tasks over state-of-the-art methods, with significant improvements in long-term and detail prediction accuracy. Remarkably, in the challenging context of the 2D high-dimensional and indirect control task aimed at reducing smoke leakage, WDNO reduces the leakage by 33.2% compared to the second-best baseline. The code can be found at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/wdno.git.

Large language models (LLMs) perform better when they produce step-by-step, "Chain-of-Thought" (CoT) reasoning before answering a question, but it is unclear if the stated reasoning is a faithful explanation of the model's actual reasoning (i.e., its process for answering the question). We investigate hypotheses for how CoT reasoning may be unfaithful, by examining how the model predictions change when we intervene on the CoT (e.g., by adding mistakes or paraphrasing it). Models show large variation across tasks in how strongly they condition on the CoT when predicting their answer, sometimes relying heavily on the CoT and other times primarily ignoring it. CoT's performance boost does not seem to come from CoT's added test-time compute alone or from information encoded via the particular phrasing of the CoT. As models become larger and more capable, they produce less faithful reasoning on most tasks we study. Overall, our results suggest that CoT can be faithful if the circumstances such as the model size and task are carefully chosen.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled automatic generation of chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning, leading to strong performance on tasks such as math and code. However, when reasoning steps reflect social stereotypes (e.g., those related to gender, race or age), they can reinforce harmful associations and lead to misleading conclusions. We present the first systematic evaluation of social bias within LLM-generated reasoning, using the BBQ dataset to analyze both prediction accuracy and bias. Our study spans a wide range of mainstream reasoning models, including instruction-tuned and CoT-augmented variants of DeepSeek-R1 (8B/32B), ChatGPT, and other open-source LLMs. We quantify how biased reasoning steps correlate with incorrect predictions and often lead to stereotype expression. To mitigate reasoning-induced bias, we propose Answer Distribution as Bias Proxy (ADBP), a lightweight mitigation method that detects bias by tracking how model predictions change across incremental reasoning steps. ADBP outperforms a stereotype-free baseline in most cases, mitigating bias and improving the accuracy of LLM outputs. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

Spherical equivariant graph neural networks (EGNNs) provide a principled framework for learning on three-dimensional molecular and biomolecular systems, where predictions must respect the rotational symmetries inherent in physics. These models extend traditional message-passing GNNs and Transformers by representing node and edge features as spherical tensors that transform under irreducible representations of the rotation group SO(3), ensuring that predictions change in physically meaningful ways under rotations of the input. This guide develops a complete, intuitive foundation for spherical equivariant modeling - from group representations and spherical harmonics, to tensor products, Clebsch-Gordan decomposition, and the construction of SO(3)-equivariant kernels. Building on this foundation, we construct the Tensor Field Network and SE(3)-Transformer architectures and explain how they perform equivariant message-passing and attention on geometric graphs. Through clear mathematical derivations and annotated code excerpts, this guide serves as a self-contained introduction for researchers and learners seeking to understand or implement spherical EGNNs for applications in chemistry, molecular property prediction, protein structure modeling, and generative modeling.

When language models (LMs) are trained to forget (or "unlearn'') a skill, how precisely does their behavior change? We study the behavior of transformer LMs in which tasks have been forgotten via fine-tuning on randomized labels. Such LMs learn to generate near-random predictions for individual examples in the "training'' set used for forgetting. Across tasks, however, LMs exhibit extreme variability in whether LM predictions change on examples outside the training set. In some tasks (like entailment classification), forgetting generalizes robustly, and causes models to produce uninformative predictions on new task instances; in other tasks (like physical commonsense reasoning and scientific question answering) forgetting affects only the training examples, and models continue to perform the "forgotten'' task accurately even for examples very similar to those that appeared in the training set. Dataset difficulty is not predictive of whether a behavior can be forgotten; instead, generalization in forgetting is (weakly) predicted by the confidence of LMs' initial task predictions and the variability of LM representations of training data, with low confidence and low variability both associated with greater generalization. Perhaps most surprisingly, random-label forgetting appears to be somewhat insensitive to the contents of the training set: for example, models trained on science questions with random labels continue to answer other science questions accurately, but begin to produce random labels on entailment classification tasks. Finally, we show that even generalizable forgetting is shallow: linear probes trained on LMs' representations can still perform tasks reliably after forgetting. Our results highlight the difficulty and unpredictability of performing targeted skill removal from models via fine-tuning.

In order to enhance the performance of language models while mitigating the risks of generating harmful content, it is crucial to identify which training dataset affects the model's outputs. Ideally, we can measure the influence of each dataset by removing it from training; however, it is prohibitively expensive to retrain a model multiple times. This paper presents UnTrac, which estimates the influence of a training dataset by unlearning it from the trained model. UnTrac is extremely simple; each training dataset is unlearned by gradient ascent, and we evaluate how much the model's predictions change after unlearning. We empirically examine if our methods can assess the influence of pretraining datasets on generating toxic, biased, and untruthful content. Experimental results demonstrate that our method estimates their influence much more accurately than existing methods while requiring neither excessive memory space nor multiple model checkpoints.

Deep learning techniques have revolutionized image classification by mimicking human cognition and automating complex decision-making processes. However, the deployment of AI systems in the wild, especially in high-security domains such as defence, is curbed by the lack of explainability of the model. To this end, eXplainable AI (XAI) is an emerging area of research that is intended to explore the unexplained hidden black box nature of deep neural networks. This paper explores the application of the eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) tool to interpret the underwater image classification results, one of the first works in the domain to the best of our knowledge. Our study delves into the realm of SONAR image classification using a custom dataset derived from diverse sources, including the Seabed Objects KLSG dataset, the camera SONAR dataset, the mine SONAR images dataset, and the SCTD dataset. An extensive analysis of transfer learning techniques for image classification using benchmark Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures such as VGG16, ResNet50, InceptionV3, DenseNet121, etc. is carried out. On top of this classification model, a post-hoc XAI technique, viz. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) are incorporated to provide transparent justifications for the model's decisions by perturbing input data locally to see how predictions change. Furthermore, Submodular Picks LIME (SP-LIME) a version of LIME particular to images, that perturbs the image based on the submodular picks is also extensively studied. To this end, two submodular optimization algorithms i.e. Quickshift and Simple Linear Iterative Clustering (SLIC) are leveraged towards submodular picks. The extensive analysis of XAI techniques highlights interpretability of the results in a more human-compliant way, thus boosting our confidence and reliability.

Despite apparent human-level performances of deep neural networks (DNN), they behave fundamentally differently from humans. They easily change predictions when small corruptions such as blur and noise are applied on the input (lack of robustness), and they often produce confident predictions on out-of-distribution samples (improper uncertainty measure). While a number of researches have aimed to address those issues, proposed solutions are typically expensive and complicated (e.g. Bayesian inference and adversarial training). Meanwhile, many simple and cheap regularization methods have been developed to enhance the generalization of classifiers. Such regularization methods have largely been overlooked as baselines for addressing the robustness and uncertainty issues, as they are not specifically designed for that. In this paper, we provide extensive empirical evaluations on the robustness and uncertainty estimates of image classifiers (CIFAR-100 and ImageNet) trained with state-of-the-art regularization methods. Furthermore, experimental results show that certain regularization methods can serve as strong baseline methods for robustness and uncertainty estimation of DNNs.

Chemical transport models (CTMs), which simulate air pollution transport, transformation, and removal, are computationally expensive, largely because of the computational intensity of the chemical mechanisms: systems of coupled differential equations representing atmospheric chemistry. Here we investigate the potential for machine learning to reproduce the behavior of a chemical mechanism, yet with reduced computational expense. We create a 17-layer residual multi-target regression neural network to emulate the Carbon Bond Mechanism Z (CBM-Z) gas-phase chemical mechanism. We train the network to match CBM-Z predictions of changes in concentrations of 77 chemical species after one hour, given a range of chemical and meteorological input conditions, which it is able to do with root-mean-square error (RMSE) of less than 1.97 ppb (median RMSE = 0.02 ppb), while achieving a 250x computational speedup. An additional 17x speedup (total 4250x speedup) is achieved by running the neural network on a graphics-processing unit (GPU). The neural network is able to reproduce the emergent behavior of the chemical system over diurnal cycles using Euler integration, but additional work is needed to constrain the propagation of errors as simulation time progresses.

Bootstrap aggregating (bagging) is an effective ensemble protocol, which is believed can enhance robustness by its majority voting mechanism. Recent works further prove the sample-wise robustness certificates for certain forms of bagging (e.g. partition aggregation). Beyond these particular forms, in this paper, we propose the first collective certification for general bagging to compute the tight robustness against the global poisoning attack. Specifically, we compute the maximum number of simultaneously changed predictions via solving a binary integer linear programming (BILP) problem. Then we analyze the robustness of vanilla bagging and give the upper bound of the tolerable poison budget. Based on this analysis, we propose hash bagging to improve the robustness of vanilla bagging almost for free. This is achieved by modifying the random subsampling in vanilla bagging to a hash-based deterministic subsampling, as a way of controlling the influence scope for each poisoning sample universally. Our extensive experiments show the notable advantage in terms of applicability and robustness.