Daily Papers

Recently, the problem of inaccurate learning targets in crowd counting draws increasing attention. Inspired by a few pioneering work, we solve this problem by trying to predict the indices of pre-defined interval bins of counts instead of the count values themselves. However, an inappropriate interval setting might make the count error contributions from different intervals extremely imbalanced, leading to inferior counting performance. Therefore, we propose a novel count interval partition criterion called Uniform Error Partition (UEP), which always keeps the expected counting error contributions equal for all intervals to minimize the prediction risk. Then to mitigate the inevitably introduced discretization errors in the count quantization process, we propose another criterion called Mean Count Proxies (MCP). The MCP criterion selects the best count proxy for each interval to represent its count value during inference, making the overall expected discretization error of an image nearly negligible. As far as we are aware, this work is the first to delve into such a classification task and ends up with a promising solution for count interval partition. Following the above two theoretically demonstrated criterions, we propose a simple yet effective model termed Uniform Error Partition Network (UEPNet), which achieves state-of-the-art performance on several challenging datasets. The codes will be available at: https://github.com/TencentYoutuResearch/CrowdCounting-UEPNet.

Evaluating fairness can be challenging in practice because the sensitive attributes of data are often inaccessible due to privacy constraints. The go-to approach that the industry frequently adopts is using off-the-shelf proxy models to predict the missing sensitive attributes, e.g. Meta [Alao et al., 2021] and Twitter [Belli et al., 2022]. Despite its popularity, there are three important questions unanswered: (1) Is directly using proxies efficacious in measuring fairness? (2) If not, is it possible to accurately evaluate fairness using proxies only? (3) Given the ethical controversy over inferring user private information, is it possible to only use weak (i.e. inaccurate) proxies in order to protect privacy? Our theoretical analyses show that directly using proxy models can give a false sense of (un)fairness. Second, we develop an algorithm that is able to measure fairness (provably) accurately with only three properly identified proxies. Third, we show that our algorithm allows the use of only weak proxies (e.g. with only 68.85%accuracy on COMPAS), adding an extra layer of protection on user privacy. Experiments validate our theoretical analyses and show our algorithm can effectively measure and mitigate bias. Our results imply a set of practical guidelines for practitioners on how to use proxies properly. Code is available at github.com/UCSC-REAL/fair-eval.

Risk decision systems in fraud detection and credit scoring operate under structural label absence: ground truth arrives weeks to months after decisions are made. During this blind period, model performance may degrade silently, eroding the governance evidence that justifies automated decisions. Existing drift detection methods either require labels (supervised detectors) or detect statistical change without distinguishing harmful degradation from benign distributional evolution (unsupervised detectors). No existing framework integrates drift detection with governance evidence assessment and operational response. This paper presents a label-free governance monitoring extension to the Governance Drift Toolkit that produces governance alerts rather than statistical alarms. The monitoring architecture applies composite multi-proxy monitoring across four proxy monitors (score distribution, feature drift, prediction entropy, confidence distribution), with governance-calibrated thresholds. Empirical evaluation on the Lending Club credit scoring dataset (1.37M loans, 11 years) demonstrates three findings. First, raw proxy metrics (Feature PSI delta up to 1.84, Score PSI delta up to 0.92) distinguish injected covariate degradation from natural temporal drift in an offline evaluation setting. Second, pure concept drift in P(Y|X) produces exactly zero delta across all proxy metrics in all windows, confirming the irreducible blind spot of label-free monitoring as a structural verification. Third, the composite score provides monotonic severity progression as more monitors trigger (0.583 to 0.833 to 1.000), enabling graduated governance response. Cross-domain comparison with IEEE-CIS fraud detection results shows the detectable/undetectable boundary is consistent across both domains. The toolkit and evaluation code are available as open-source artifacts.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

We survey clinical document corpora, with focus on German textual data. Due to rigid data privacy legislation in Germany these resources, with only few exceptions, are stored in safe clinical data spaces and locked against clinic-external researchers. This situation stands in stark contrast with established workflows in the field of natural language processing where easy accessibility and reuse of data collections are common practice. Hence, alternative corpus designs have been examined to escape from this data poverty. Besides machine translation of English clinical datasets and the generation of synthetic corpora with fictitious clinical contents, several other types of domain proxies have come up as substitutes for authentic clinical documents. Common instances of close proxies are medical journal publications, clinical therapy guidelines, drug labels, etc., more distant proxies include online encyclopedic medical articles or medical contents from social media channels. After PRISM-conformant screening of 359 hits from four bibliographic systems, 75 relevant documents were finally selected for this review and 59 distinct corpora were determined. We identified 24 real clinical corpora (from 40 publications) out of which only 5 are publicly distributable. 2 translations of real corpora and 3 synthetic ones complement the set of clinical corpora. 14 corpora were categorized as close domain proxies, 16 as distant ones. There is a clear divide between the large number of non-accessible authentic clinical German-language corpora and their publicly accessible substitutes: translated or synthetic, close or more distant proxies. So on first sight, the data bottleneck seems broken. Intuitively yet, differences in genre-specific writing style, wording and medical domain expertise in this typological space are also obvious. This raises the question how valid alternative corpus designs really are.

Mixed-Precision Quantization~(MQ) can achieve a competitive accuracy-complexity trade-off for models. Conventional training-based search methods require time-consuming candidate training to search optimized per-layer bit-width configurations in MQ. Recently, some training-free approaches have presented various MQ proxies and significantly improve search efficiency. However, the correlation between these proxies and quantization accuracy is poorly understood. To address the gap, we first build the MQ-Bench-101, which involves different bit configurations and quantization results. Then, we observe that the existing training-free proxies perform weak correlations on the MQ-Bench-101. To efficiently seek superior proxies, we develop an automatic search of proxies framework for MQ via evolving algorithms. In particular, we devise an elaborate search space involving the existing proxies and perform an evolution search to discover the best correlated MQ proxy. We proposed a diversity-prompting selection strategy and compatibility screening protocol to avoid premature convergence and improve search efficiency. In this way, our Evolving proxies for Mixed-precision Quantization~(EMQ) framework allows the auto-generation of proxies without heavy tuning and expert knowledge. Extensive experiments on ImageNet with various ResNet and MobileNet families demonstrate that our EMQ obtains superior performance than state-of-the-art mixed-precision methods at a significantly reduced cost. The code will be released.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

Citation count of a paper is a commonly used proxy for evaluating the significance of a paper in the scientific community. Yet citation measures are widely criticized for failing to accurately reflect the true impact of a paper. Thus, we propose CausalCite, a new way to measure the significance of a paper by assessing the causal impact of the paper on its follow-up papers. CausalCite is based on a novel causal inference method, TextMatch, which adapts the traditional matching framework to high-dimensional text embeddings. TextMatch encodes each paper using text embeddings from large language models (LLMs), extracts similar samples by cosine similarity, and synthesizes a counterfactual sample as the weighted average of similar papers according to their similarity values. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CausalCite on various criteria, such as high correlation with paper impact as reported by scientific experts on a previous dataset of 1K papers, (test-of-time) awards for past papers, and its stability across various subfields of AI. We also provide a set of findings that can serve as suggested ways for future researchers to use our metric for a better understanding of the quality of a paper. Our code is available at https://github.com/causalNLP/causal-cite.

Most crowd counting methods directly regress blockwise density maps using Mean Squared Error (MSE) losses. This practice has two key limitations: (1) it fails to account for the extreme spatial sparsity of annotations -- over 95% of 8x8 blocks are empty across standard benchmarks, so supervision signals in informative regions are diluted by the predominant zeros; (2) MSE corresponds to a Gaussian error model that poorly matches discrete, non-negative count data. To address these issues, we introduce ZIP, a scalable crowd counting framework that models blockwise counts with a Zero-Inflated Poisson likelihood: a zero-inflation term learns the probability a block is structurally empty (handling excess zeros), while the Poisson component captures expected counts when people are present (respecting discreteness). We provide a generalization analysis showing a tighter risk bound for ZIP than MSE-based losses and DMCount provided that the training resolution is moderately large. To assess the scalability of ZIP, we instantiate it on backbones spanning over 100x in parameters/compute. Experiments on ShanghaiTech A & B, UCF-QNRF, and NWPU-Crowd demonstrate that ZIP consistently surpasses state-of-the-art methods across all model scales.

In spite of the outstanding performance, Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is criticized for massive computation. Recently, Zero-shot NAS has emerged as a promising approach by exploiting Zero-cost (ZC) proxies, which markedly reduce computational demands. Despite this, existing ZC proxies heavily rely on expert knowledge and incur significant trial-and-error costs. Particularly in NLP tasks, most existing ZC proxies fail to surpass the performance of the naive baseline. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel framework, LPZero, which is the first to automatically design ZC proxies for various tasks, achieving higher ranking consistency than human-designed proxies. Specifically, we model the ZC proxy as a symbolic equation and incorporate a unified proxy search space that encompasses existing ZC proxies, which are composed of a predefined set of mathematical symbols. To heuristically search for the best ZC proxy, LPZero incorporates genetic programming to find the optimal symbolic composition. We propose a Rule-based Pruning Strategy (RPS), which preemptively eliminates unpromising proxies, thereby mitigating the risk of proxy degradation. Extensive experiments on FlexiBERT, GPT-2, and LLaMA-7B demonstrate LPZero's superior ranking ability and performance on downstream tasks compared to current approaches.

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

We provide the largest compiled publicly available dictionaries of first, middle, and last names for the purpose of imputing race and ethnicity using, for example, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG). The dictionaries are based on the voter files of six Southern states that collect self-reported racial data upon voter registration. Our data cover a much larger scope of names than any comparable dataset, containing roughly one million first names, 1.1 million middle names, and 1.4 million surnames. Individuals are categorized into five mutually exclusive racial and ethnic groups -- White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Other -- and racial/ethnic counts by name are provided for every name in each dictionary. Counts can then be normalized row-wise or column-wise to obtain conditional probabilities of race given name or name given race. These conditional probabilities can then be deployed for imputation in a data analytic task for which ground truth racial and ethnic data is not available.

Training-free metrics (a.k.a. zero-cost proxies) are widely used to avoid resource-intensive neural network training, especially in Neural Architecture Search (NAS). Recent studies show that existing training-free metrics have several limitations, such as limited correlation and poor generalisation across different search spaces and tasks. Hence, we propose Sample-Wise Activation Patterns and its derivative, SWAP-Score, a novel high-performance training-free metric. It measures the expressivity of networks over a batch of input samples. The SWAP-Score is strongly correlated with ground-truth performance across various search spaces and tasks, outperforming 15 existing training-free metrics on NAS-Bench-101/201/301 and TransNAS-Bench-101. The SWAP-Score can be further enhanced by regularisation, which leads to even higher correlations in cell-based search space and enables model size control during the search. For example, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient between regularised SWAP-Score and CIFAR-100 validation accuracies on NAS-Bench-201 networks is 0.90, significantly higher than 0.80 from the second-best metric, NWOT. When integrated with an evolutionary algorithm for NAS, our SWAP-NAS achieves competitive performance on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet in approximately 6 minutes and 9 minutes of GPU time respectively.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

Across many scientific fields, measurements often represent the number of times an event occurs. For example, a document can be represented by word occurrence counts, neural activity by spike counts per time window, or online communication by daily email counts. These measurements yield high-dimensional count data that often approximate a Poisson distribution, frequently with low rates that produce substantial sparsity and complicate downstream analysis. A useful approach is to embed the data into a low-dimensional space that preserves meaningful structure, commonly termed dimensionality reduction. Yet existing dimensionality reduction methods, including both linear (e.g., PCA) and nonlinear approaches (e.g., t-SNE), often assume continuous Euclidean geometry, thereby misaligning with the discrete, sparse nature of low-rate count data. Here, we propose p-SNE (Poisson Stochastic Neighbor Embedding), a nonlinear neighbor embedding method designed around the Poisson structure of count data, using KL divergence between Poisson distributions to measure pairwise dissimilarity and Hellinger distance to optimize the embedding. We test p-SNE on synthetic Poisson data and demonstrate its ability to recover meaningful structure in real-world count datasets, including weekday patterns in email communication, research area clusters in OpenReview papers, and temporal drift and stimulus gradients in neural spike recordings.

In crowd counting, each training image contains multiple people, where each person is annotated by a dot. Existing crowd counting methods need to use a Gaussian to smooth each annotated dot or to estimate the likelihood of every pixel given the annotated point. In this paper, we show that imposing Gaussians to annotations hurts generalization performance. Instead, we propose to use Distribution Matching for crowd COUNTing (DM-Count). In DM-Count, we use Optimal Transport (OT) to measure the similarity between the normalized predicted density map and the normalized ground truth density map. To stabilize OT computation, we include a Total Variation loss in our model. We show that the generalization error bound of DM-Count is tighter than that of the Gaussian smoothed methods. In terms of Mean Absolute Error, DM-Count outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods by a large margin on two large-scale counting datasets, UCF-QNRF and NWPU, and achieves the state-of-the-art results on the ShanghaiTech and UCF-CC50 datasets. DM-Count reduced the error of the state-of-the-art published result by approximately 16%. Code is available at https://github.com/cvlab-stonybrook/DM-Count.

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE -- in particular, is better than several alternative methods.

We investigate the sets of joint probability distributions that maximize the average multi-information over a collection of margins. These functionals serve as proxies for maximizing the multi-information of a set of variables or the mutual information of two subsets of variables, at a lower computation and estimation complexity. We describe the maximizers and their relations to the maximizers of the multi-information and the mutual information.

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

Recent advancements in Zero-shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) highlight the efficacy of zero-cost proxies in various NAS benchmarks. Several studies propose the automated design of zero-cost proxies to achieve SOTA performance but require tedious searching progress. Furthermore, we identify a critical issue with current zero-cost proxies: they aggregate node-wise zero-cost statistics without considering the fact that not all nodes in a neural network equally impact performance estimation. Our observations reveal that node-wise zero-cost statistics significantly vary in their contributions to performance, with each node exhibiting a degree of uncertainty. Based on this insight, we introduce a novel method called Parametric Zero-Cost Proxies (ParZC) framework to enhance the adaptability of zero-cost proxies through parameterization. To address the node indiscrimination, we propose a Mixer Architecture with Bayesian Network (MABN) to explore the node-wise zero-cost statistics and estimate node-specific uncertainty. Moreover, we propose DiffKendall as a loss function to directly optimize Kendall's Tau coefficient in a differentiable manner so that our ParZC can better handle the discrepancies in ranking architectures. Comprehensive experiments on NAS-Bench-101, 201, and NDS demonstrate the superiority of our proposed ParZC compared to existing zero-shot NAS methods. Additionally, we demonstrate the versatility and adaptability of ParZC by transferring it to the Vision Transformer search space.

Understanding and anticipating vulnerability-related activity is a major challenge in cyber threat intelligence. This work investigates whether vulnerability sightings, such as proof-of-concept releases, detection templates, or online discussions, can be forecast over time. Building on our earlier work on VLAI, a transformer-based model that predicts vulnerability severity from textual descriptions, we examine whether severity scores can improve time-series forecasting as exogenous variables. We evaluate several approaches for short-term forecasting of sightings per vulnerability. First, we test SARIMAX models with and without log(x+1) transformations and VLAI-derived severity inputs. Although these adjustments provide limited improvements, SARIMAX remains poorly suited to sparse, short, and bursty vulnerability data. In practice, forecasts often produce overly wide confidence intervals and sometimes unrealistic negative values. To better capture the discrete and event-driven nature of sightings, we then explore count-based methods such as Poisson regression. Early results show that these models produce more stable and interpretable forecasts, especially when sightings are aggregated weekly. We also discuss simpler operational alternatives, including exponential decay functions for short forecasting horizons, to estimate future activity without requiring long historical series. Overall, this study highlights both the potential and the limitations of forecasting rare and bursty cyber events, and provides practical guidance for integrating predictive analytics into vulnerability intelligence workflows.

It has been shown that Large Language Model (LLM) alignments can be circumvented by appending specially crafted attack suffixes with harmful queries to elicit harmful responses. To conduct attacks against private target models whose characterization is unknown, public models can be used as proxies to fashion the attack, with successful attacks being transferred from public proxies to private target models. The success rate of attack depends on how closely the proxy model approximates the private model. We hypothesize that for attacks to be transferrable, it is sufficient if the proxy can approximate the target model in the neighborhood of the harmful query. Therefore, in this paper, we propose Local Fine-Tuning (LoFT), i.e., fine-tuning proxy models on similar queries that lie in the lexico-semantic neighborhood of harmful queries to decrease the divergence between the proxy and target models. First, we demonstrate three approaches to prompt private target models to obtain similar queries given harmful queries. Next, we obtain data for local fine-tuning by eliciting responses from target models for the generated similar queries. Then, we optimize attack suffixes to generate attack prompts and evaluate the impact of our local fine-tuning on the attack's success rate. Experiments show that local fine-tuning of proxy models improves attack transferability and increases attack success rate by 39%, 7%, and 0.5% (absolute) on target models ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude respectively.

Web proxies such as NGINX commonly rely on least-recently-used (LRU) eviction, which is size agnostic and can thrash under periodic bursts and mixed object sizes. We introduce Cold-RL, a learned eviction policy for NGINX that replaces LRU's forced-expire path with a dueling Deep Q-Network served by an ONNX sidecar within a strict microsecond budget. On each eviction, Cold-RL samples the K least-recently-used objects, extracts six lightweight features (age, size, hit count, inter-arrival time, remaining TTL, and last origin RTT), and requests a bitmask of victims; a hard timeout of 500 microseconds triggers immediate fallback to native LRU. Policies are trained offline by replaying NGINX access logs through a cache simulator with a simple reward: a retained object earns one point if it is hit again before TTL expiry. We compare against LRU, LFU, size-based, adaptive LRU, and a hybrid baseline on two adversarial workloads. With a 25 MB cache, Cold-RL raises hit ratio from 0.1436 to 0.3538, a 146 percent improvement over the best classical baseline; at 100 MB, from 0.7530 to 0.8675, a 15 percent gain; and at 400 MB it matches classical methods (about 0.918). Inference adds less than 2 percent CPU overhead and keeps 95th percentile eviction latency within budget. To our knowledge, this is the first reinforcement learning eviction policy integrated into NGINX with strict SLOs.

Frontier models that generate extended reasoning traces inadvertently produce rich token sequences that can facilitate model distillation. Recognizing this vulnerability, model owners may seek sampling strategies that limit the effectiveness of distillation without compromising model performance. Antidistillation sampling provides exactly this capability. By strategically modifying a model's next-token probability distribution, antidistillation sampling poisons reasoning traces, rendering them significantly less effective for distillation while preserving the model's practical utility. For further details, see https://antidistillation.com.

How many experimental studies would have come to different conclusions had they been run on larger samples? I show how to estimate the expected number of statistically significant results that a set of experiments would have reported had their sample sizes all been counterfactually increased. The proposed deconvolution estimator is asymptotically normal and adjusts for publication bias. Unlike related methods, this approach requires no assumptions of any kind about the distribution of true intervention treatment effects and allows for point masses. Simulations find good coverage even when the t-score is only approximately normal. An application to randomized trials (RCTs) published in economics journals finds that doubling every sample would increase the power of t-tests by 7.2 percentage points on average. This effect is smaller than for non-RCTs and comparable to systematic replications in laboratory psychology where previous studies enabled more accurate power calculations. This suggests that RCTs are on average relatively insensitive to sample size increases. Research funders who wish to raise power should generally consider sponsoring better-measured and higher quality experiments -- rather than only larger ones.

Interpretable time series prediction is crucial for safety-critical areas such as healthcare and autonomous driving. Most existing methods focus on interpreting predictions by assigning important scores to segments of time series. In this paper, we take a different and more challenging route and aim at developing a self-interpretable model, dubbed Counterfactual Time Series (CounTS), which generates counterfactual and actionable explanations for time series predictions. Specifically, we formalize the problem of time series counterfactual explanations, establish associated evaluation protocols, and propose a variational Bayesian deep learning model equipped with counterfactual inference capability of time series abduction, action, and prediction. Compared with state-of-the-art baselines, our self-interpretable model can generate better counterfactual explanations while maintaining comparable prediction accuracy.

Many of the recent breakthroughs in language modeling have resulted from scaling effectively the same model architecture to larger datasets. In this vein, recent work has highlighted performance gains from increasing training dataset size and quality, suggesting a need for novel sources of large-scale datasets. In this work, we introduce BeanCounter, a public dataset consisting of more than 159B tokens extracted from businesses' disclosures. We show that this data is indeed novel: less than 0.1% of BeanCounter appears in Common Crawl-based datasets and it is an order of magnitude larger than datasets relying on similar sources. Given the data's provenance, we hypothesize that BeanCounter is comparatively more factual and less toxic than web-based datasets. Exploring this hypothesis, we find that many demographic identities occur with similar prevalence in BeanCounter but with significantly less toxic context relative to other datasets. To demonstrate the utility of BeanCounter, we evaluate and compare two LLMs continually pre-trained on BeanCounter with their base models. We find an 18-33% reduction in toxic generation and improved performance within the finance domain for the continually pretrained models. Collectively, our work suggests that BeanCounter is a novel source of low-toxicity and high-quality domain-specific data with sufficient scale to train multi-billion parameter LLMs.

The demand for efficient natural language processing (NLP) systems has led to the development of lightweight language models. Previous work in this area has primarily focused on manual design or training-based neural architecture search (NAS) methods. Recently, zero-shot NAS methods have been proposed for evaluating language models without the need for training. However, prevailing approaches to zero-shot NAS often face challenges such as biased evaluation metrics and computational inefficiencies. In this paper, we introduce weight-weighted PCA (W-PCA), a novel zero-shot NAS method specifically tailored for lightweight language models. Our approach utilizes two evaluation proxies: the parameter count and the number of principal components with cumulative contribution exceeding eta in the feed-forward neural (FFN) layer. Additionally, by eliminating the need for gradient computations, we optimize the evaluation time, thus enhancing the efficiency of designing and evaluating lightweight language models. We conduct a comparative analysis on the GLUE and SQuAD datasets to evaluate our approach. The results demonstrate that our method significantly reduces training time compared to one-shot NAS methods and achieves higher scores in the testing phase compared to previous state-of-the-art training-based methods. Furthermore, we perform ranking evaluations on a dataset sampled from the FlexiBERT search space. Our approach exhibits superior ranking correlation and further reduces solving time compared to other zero-shot NAS methods that require gradient computation.

Websites use third-party ads and tracking services to deliver targeted ads and collect information about users that visit them. These services put users' privacy at risk, and that is why users' demand for blocking these services is growing. Most of the blocking solutions rely on crowd-sourced filter lists manually maintained by a large community of users. In this work, we seek to simplify the update of these filter lists by combining different websites through a large-scale graph connecting all resource requests made over a large set of sites. The features of this graph are extracted and used to train a machine learning algorithm with the aim of detecting ads and tracking resources. As our approach combines different information sources, it is more robust toward evasion techniques that use obfuscation or changing the usage patterns. We evaluate our work over the Alexa top-10K websites and find its accuracy to be 96.1% biased and 90.9% unbiased with high precision and recall. It can also block new ads and tracking services, which would necessitate being blocked by further crowd-sourced existing filter lists. Moreover, the approach followed in this paper sheds light on the ecosystem of third-party tracking and advertising.

Class-agnostic counting methods enumerate objects of an arbitrary class, providing tremendous utility in many fields. Prior works have limited usefulness as they require either a set of examples of the type to be counted or that the query image contains only a single type of object. A significant factor in these shortcomings is the lack of a dataset to properly address counting in settings with more than one kind of object present. To address these issues, we propose the first Multi-class, Class-Agnostic Counting dataset (MCAC) and A Blind Counter (ABC123), a method that can count multiple types of objects simultaneously without using examples of type during training or inference. ABC123 introduces a new paradigm where instead of requiring exemplars to guide the enumeration, examples are found after the counting stage to help a user understand the generated outputs. We show that ABC123 outperforms contemporary methods on MCAC without needing human in-the-loop annotations. We also show that this performance transfers to FSC-147, the standard class-agnostic counting dataset. MCAC is available at MCAC.active.vision and ABC123 is available at ABC123.active.vision.

Systematic under-counting effects are observed in data collected across many disciplines, e.g., epidemiology and ecology. Under-counted tensor completion (UC-TC) is well-motivated for many data analytics tasks, e.g., inferring the case numbers of infectious diseases at unobserved locations from under-counted case numbers in neighboring regions. However, existing methods for similar problems often lack supports in theory, making it hard to understand the underlying principles and conditions beyond empirical successes. In this work, a low-rank Poisson tensor model with an expressive unknown nonlinear side information extractor is proposed for under-counted multi-aspect data. A joint low-rank tensor completion and neural network learning algorithm is designed to recover the model. Moreover, the UC-TC formulation is supported by theoretical analysis showing that the fully counted entries of the tensor and each entry's under-counting probability can be provably recovered from partial observations -- under reasonable conditions. To our best knowledge, the result is the first to offer theoretical supports for under-counted multi-aspect data completion. Simulations and real-data experiments corroborate the theoretical claims.

Zero-shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) typically optimises the architecture search process by exploiting the network or gradient properties at initialisation through zero-cost proxies. The existing proxies often rely on labelled data, which is usually unavailable in real-world settings. Furthermore, the majority of the current methods focus either on optimising the convergence and generalisation attributes or solely on the expressivity of the network architectures. To address both limitations, we first demonstrate how channel collinearity affects the convergence and generalisation properties of a neural network. Then, by incorporating the convergence, generalisation and expressivity in one approach, we propose a zero-cost proxy that omits the requirement of labelled data for its computation. In particular, we leverage the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) of the neural network layer features and the extrinsic curvature of the network output to design our proxy. %As a result, the proposed proxy is formulated as the simplified harmonic mean of the logarithms of two key components: the sum of the inverse of the feature condition number and the extrinsic curvature of the network output. Our approach enables accurate prediction of network performance on test data using only a single label-free data sample. Our extensive evaluation includes a total of six experiments, including the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) search space, i.e. DARTS and the Transformer search space, i.e. AutoFormer. The proposed proxy demonstrates a superior performance on multiple correlation benchmarks, including NAS-Bench-101, NAS-Bench-201, and TransNAS-Bench-101-micro; as well as on the NAS task within the DARTS and the AutoFormer search space, all while being notably efficient. The code is available at https://github.com/rohanasthana/Dextr.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

We propose a novel framework for interactive class-agnostic object counting, where a human user can interactively provide feedback to improve the accuracy of a counter. Our framework consists of two main components: a user-friendly visualizer to gather feedback and an efficient mechanism to incorporate it. In each iteration, we produce a density map to show the current prediction result, and we segment it into non-overlapping regions with an easily verifiable number of objects. The user can provide feedback by selecting a region with obvious counting errors and specifying the range for the estimated number of objects within it. To improve the counting result, we develop a novel adaptation loss to force the visual counter to output the predicted count within the user-specified range. For effective and efficient adaptation, we propose a refinement module that can be used with any density-based visual counter, and only the parameters in the refinement module will be updated during adaptation. Our experiments on two challenging class-agnostic object counting benchmarks, FSCD-LVIS and FSC-147, show that our method can reduce the mean absolute error of multiple state-of-the-art visual counters by roughly 30% to 40% with minimal user input. Our project can be found at https://yifehuang97.github.io/ICACountProjectPage/.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

Concept-based explanations quantify how high-level concepts (e.g., gender or experience) influence model behavior, which is crucial for decision-makers in high-stakes domains. Recent work evaluates the faithfulness of such explanations by comparing them to reference causal effects estimated from counterfactuals. In practice, existing benchmarks rely on costly human-written counterfactuals that serve as an imperfect proxy. To address this, we introduce a framework for constructing datasets containing structural counterfactual pairs: LIBERTy (LLM-based Interventional Benchmark for Explainability with Reference Targets). LIBERTy is grounded in explicitly defined Structured Causal Models (SCMs) of the text generation, interventions on a concept propagate through the SCM until an LLM generates the counterfactual. We introduce three datasets (disease detection, CV screening, and workplace violence prediction) together with a new evaluation metric, order-faithfulness. Using them, we evaluate a wide range of methods across five models and identify substantial headroom for improving concept-based explanations. LIBERTy also enables systematic analysis of model sensitivity to interventions: we find that proprietary LLMs show markedly reduced sensitivity to demographic concepts, likely due to post-training mitigation. Overall, LIBERTy provides a much-needed benchmark for developing faithful explainability methods.

This work derives methods for performing nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference for population means under the constraint of local differential privacy (LDP). Given bounded observations (X_1, dots, X_n) with mean mu^star that are privatized into (Z_1, dots, Z_n), we present confidence intervals (CI) and time-uniform confidence sequences (CS) for mu^star when only given access to the privatized data. To achieve this, we introduce a nonparametric and sequentially interactive generalization of Warner's famous ``randomized response'' mechanism, satisfying LDP for arbitrary bounded random variables, and then provide CIs and CSs for their means given access to the resulting privatized observations. For example, our results yield private analogues of Hoeffding's inequality in both fixed-time and time-uniform regimes. We extend these Hoeffding-type CSs to capture time-varying (non-stationary) means, and conclude by illustrating how these methods can be used to conduct private online A/B tests.

With local differential privacy (LDP), users can privatize their data and thus guarantee privacy properties before transmitting it to the server (a.k.a. the aggregator). One primary objective of LDP is frequency (or histogram) estimation, in which the aggregator estimates the number of users for each possible value. In practice, when a study with rich content on a population is desired, the interest is in the multiple attributes of the population, that is to say, in multidimensional data (d geq 2). However, contrary to the problem of frequency estimation of a single attribute (the majority of the works), the multidimensional aspect imposes to pay particular attention to the privacy budget. This one can indeed grow extremely quickly due to the composition theorem. To the authors' knowledge, two solutions seem to stand out for this task: 1) splitting the privacy budget for each attribute, i.e., send each value with fracε{d}-LDP (Spl), and 2) random sampling a single attribute and spend all the privacy budget to send it with ε-LDP (Smp). Although Smp adds additional sampling error, it has proven to provide higher data utility than the former Spl solution. However, we argue that aggregators (who are also seen as attackers) are aware of the sampled attribute and its LDP value, which is protected by a "less strict" e^ε probability bound (rather than e^{ε/d}). This way, we propose a solution named Random Sampling plus Fake Data (RS+FD), which allows creating uncertainty over the sampled attribute by generating fake data for each non-sampled attribute; RS+FD further benefits from amplification by sampling. We theoretically and experimentally validate our proposed solution on both synthetic and real-world datasets to show that RS+FD achieves nearly the same or better utility than the state-of-the-art Smp solution.

Chest X-ray (CXR) classification in clinical practice is often limited by imperfect supervision, arising from (i) extreme long-tailed multi-label disease distributions and (ii) missing annotations for rare or previously unseen findings. The CXR-LT 2026 challenge addresses these issues on a PadChest-based benchmark with a 36-class label space split into 30 in-distribution classes for training and 6 out-of-distribution (OOD) classes for zero-shot evaluation. We present task-specific solutions tailored to the distinct supervision regimes. For Task 1 (long-tailed multi-label classification), we adopt an imbalance-aware multi-label learning strategy to improve recognition of tail classes while maintaining stable performance on frequent findings. For Task 2 (zero-shot OOD recognition), we propose a prediction approach that produces scores for unseen disease categories without using any supervised labels or examples from the OOD classes during training. Evaluated with macro-averaged mean Average Precision (mAP), our method achieves strong performance on both tasks, ranking first on the public leaderboard of the development phase. Code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/hieuphamha19/CXR_LT.

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

Understanding the dynamic behavior of computer programs during normal working conditions is an important task, which has multiple security benefits such as the development of behavior-based anomaly detection, vulnerability discovery, and patching. Existing works achieved this goal by collecting and analyzing various data including network traffic, system calls, instruction traces, etc. In this paper, we explore the use of a new type of data, performance counters, to analyze the dynamic behavior of programs. Using existing primitives, we develop a tool named perfextract to capture data from different performance counters for a program during its startup time, thus forming multiple time series to represent the dynamic behavior of the program. We analyze the collected data and develop a semi-supervised clustering algorithm that allows us to classify each program using its performance counter time series into a specific group and to identify the intrinsic behavior of that group. We carry out extensive experiments with 18 real-world programs that belong to 4 groups including web browsers, text editors, image viewers, and audio players. The experimental results show that the examined programs can be accurately differentiated based on their performance counter data regardless of whether programs are run in physical or virtual environments.

Despite the unprecedented success of text-to-image diffusion models, controlling the number of depicted objects using text is surprisingly hard. This is important for various applications from technical documents, to children's books to illustrating cooking recipes. Generating object-correct counts is fundamentally challenging because the generative model needs to keep a sense of separate identity for every instance of the object, even if several objects look identical or overlap, and then carry out a global computation implicitly during generation. It is still unknown if such representations exist. To address count-correct generation, we first identify features within the diffusion model that can carry the object identity information. We then use them to separate and count instances of objects during the denoising process and detect over-generation and under-generation. We fix the latter by training a model that predicts both the shape and location of a missing object, based on the layout of existing ones, and show how it can be used to guide denoising with correct object count. Our approach, CountGen, does not depend on external source to determine object layout, but rather uses the prior from the diffusion model itself, creating prompt-dependent and seed-dependent layouts. Evaluated on two benchmark datasets, we find that CountGen strongly outperforms the count-accuracy of existing baselines.

AI-powered chatbots (ChatGPT, Claude, etc.) require users to create an account using their email and phone number, thereby linking their personally identifiable information to their conversational data and usage patterns. As these chatbots are increasingly being used for tasks involving sensitive information, privacy concerns have been raised about how chatbot providers handle user data. To address these concerns, we present ProxyGPT, a privacy-enhancing system that enables anonymous queries in popular chatbot platforms. ProxyGPT leverages volunteer proxies to submit user queries on their behalf, thus providing network-level anonymity for chatbot users. The system is designed to support key security properties such as content integrity via TLS-backed data provenance, end-to-end encryption, and anonymous payment, while also ensuring usability and sustainability. We provide a thorough analysis of the privacy, security, and integrity of our system and identify various future research directions, particularly in the area of private chatbot query synthesis. Our human evaluation shows that ProxyGPT offers users a greater sense of privacy compared to traditional AI chatbots, especially in scenarios where users are hesitant to share their identity with chatbot providers. Although our proof-of-concept has higher latency than popular chatbots, our human interview participants consider this to be an acceptable trade-off for anonymity. To the best of our knowledge, ProxyGPT is the first comprehensive proxy-based solution for privacy-preserving AI chatbots. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/dzungvpham/proxygpt.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Low-shot object counters estimate the number of objects in an image using few or no annotated exemplars. Objects are localized by matching them to prototypes, which are constructed by unsupervised image-wide object appearance aggregation. Due to potentially diverse object appearances, the existing approaches often lead to overgeneralization and false positive detections. Furthermore, the best-performing methods train object localization by a surrogate loss, that predicts a unit Gaussian at each object center. This loss is sensitive to annotation error, hyperparameters and does not directly optimize the detection task, leading to suboptimal counts. We introduce GeCo, a novel low-shot counter that achieves accurate object detection, segmentation, and count estimation in a unified architecture. GeCo robustly generalizes the prototypes across objects appearances through a novel dense object query formulation. In addition, a novel counting loss is proposed, that directly optimizes the detection task and avoids the issues of the standard surrogate loss. GeCo surpasses the leading few-shot detection-based counters by sim25\% in the total count MAE, achieves superior detection accuracy and sets a new solid state-of-the-art result across all low-shot counting setups.

Estimating the causal effects of interventions is crucial to policy and decision-making, yet outcome data are often missing or subject to non-standard measurement error. While ground-truth outcomes can sometimes be obtained through costly data annotation or follow-up, budget constraints typically allow only a fraction of the dataset to be labeled. We address this challenge by optimizing which data points should be sampled for outcome information in order to improve efficiency in average treatment effect estimation with missing outcomes. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal batch sampling probability by minimizing the asymptotic variance of a doubly robust estimator for causal inference with missing outcomes. Motivated by our street outreach partners, we extend the framework to costly annotations of unstructured data, such as text or images in healthcare and social services. Across simulated and real-world datasets, including one of outreach interventions in homelessness services, our approach achieves substantially lower mean-squared error and recovers the AIPW estimate with fewer labels than existing baselines. In practice, we show that our method can match confidence intervals obtained with 361 random samples using only 90 optimized samples - saving 75% of the labeling budget.

Given the prohibitive cost of pre-training large language models, it is essential to leverage smaller proxy models to optimize datasets before scaling up. However, this approach becomes challenging for reasoning capabilities, which exhibit emergent behavior that only appear reliably at larger model sizes, often exceeding 7B parameters. To address this, we introduce rBridge, showing that small proxies (leq1B) can effectively predict large-model reasoning by aligning more closely with (1) the pre-training objective and (2) the target task. rBridge achieves this by weighting negative log-likelihood with task alignment, using reasoning traces from frontier models as gold labels. In our experiments, rBridge (i) reduces dataset ranking costs by over 100x relative to the best baseline, (ii) achieves the strongest correlation across six reasoning benchmarks at 1B to 32B scale, and (iii) zero-shot transfers predictive relationships across pre-training datasets at 1B to 7B scale. These findings indicate that rBridge offers a practical path for exploring reasoning-oriented pre-training at lower cost.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

A Membership Inference Attack (MIA) assesses how much a trained machine learning model reveals about its training data by determining whether specific query instances were included in the dataset. We classify existing MIAs into adaptive or non-adaptive, depending on whether the adversary is allowed to train shadow models on membership queries. In the adaptive setting, where the adversary can train shadow models after accessing query instances, we highlight the importance of exploiting membership dependencies between instances and propose an attack-agnostic framework called Cascading Membership Inference Attack (CMIA), which incorporates membership dependencies via conditional shadow training to boost membership inference performance. In the non-adaptive setting, where the adversary is restricted to training shadow models before obtaining membership queries, we introduce Proxy Membership Inference Attack (PMIA). PMIA employs a proxy selection strategy that identifies samples with similar behaviors to the query instance and uses their behaviors in shadow models to perform a membership posterior odds test for membership inference. We provide theoretical analyses for both attacks, and extensive experimental results demonstrate that CMIA and PMIA substantially outperform existing MIAs in both settings, particularly in the low false-positive regime, which is crucial for evaluating privacy risks.

Large language models exhibit exceptional generalization capabilities, primarily attributed to the utilization of diversely sourced data. However, conventional practices in integrating this diverse data heavily rely on heuristic schemes, lacking theoretical guidance. This research tackles these limitations by investigating strategies based on low-cost proxies for data mixtures, with the aim of streamlining data curation to enhance training efficiency. Specifically, we propose a unified scaling law, termed BiMix, which accurately models the bivariate scaling behaviors of both data quantity and mixing proportions. We conduct systematic experiments and provide empirical evidence for the predictive power and fundamental principles of BiMix. Notably, our findings reveal that entropy-driven training-free data mixtures can achieve comparable or even better performance than more resource-intensive methods. We hope that our quantitative insights can shed light on further judicious research and development in cost-effective language modeling.

Autoencoders were widely used in many machine learning tasks thanks to their strong learning ability which has drawn great interest among researchers in the field of outlier detection. However, conventional autoencoder-based methods lacked considerations in two aspects. This limited their performance in outlier detection. First, the mean squared error used in conventional autoencoders ignored the judgment uncertainty of the autoencoder, which limited their representation ability. Second, autoencoders suffered from the abnormal reconstruction problem: some outliers can be unexpectedly reconstructed well, making them difficult to identify from the inliers. To mitigate the aforementioned issues, two novel methods were proposed in this paper. First, a novel loss function named Probabilistic Reconstruction Error (PRE) was constructed to factor in both reconstruction bias and judgment uncertainty. To further control the trade-off of these two factors, two weights were introduced in PRE producing Adjustable Probabilistic Reconstruction Error (APRE), which benefited the outlier detection in different applications. Second, a conceptually new outlier scoring method based on mean-shift (MSS) was proposed to reduce the false inliers caused by the autoencoder. Experiments on 32 real-world outlier detection datasets proved the effectiveness of the proposed methods. The combination of the proposed methods achieved 41% of the relative performance improvement compared to the best baseline. The MSS improved the performance of multiple autoencoder-based outlier detectors by an average of 20%. The proposed two methods have the potential to advance autoencoder's development in outlier detection. The code is available on www.OutlierNet.com for reproducibility.

A common approach to explain NLP models, is to use importance measures that express which tokens are important for a prediction. Unfortunately, such explanations are often wrong despite being persuasive. Therefore, it is essential to measure their faithfulness. One such metric is if tokens are truly important, then masking them should result in worse model performance. However, token masking introduces out-of-distribution issues and existing solutions are computationally expensive and employ proxy-models. Furthermore, other metrics are very limited in scope. In this work, we propose an inherently faithfulness measurable model that addresses these challenges. This is achieved by using a novel fine-tuning method that incorporates masking, such that masking tokens become in-distribution by design. This differs from existing approaches, which are completely model-agnostic but are inapplicable in practice. We demonstrate the generality of our approach by applying it to various tasks and validate it using statistical in-distribution tests. Additionally, because masking is in-distribution, importance measures which themselves use masking become more faithful, thus our model becomes more explainable.

As the Internet rapidly expands, the increasing complexity and diversity of network activities pose significant challenges to effective network governance and security regulation. Network traffic, which serves as a crucial data carrier of network activities, has become indispensable in this process. Network traffic detection aims to monitor, analyze, and evaluate the data flows transmitted across the network to ensure network security and optimize performance. However, existing network traffic detection methods generally suffer from several limitations: 1) a narrow focus on characterizing traffic features from a single perspective; 2) insufficient exploration of discriminative features for different traffic; 3) poor generalization to different traffic scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a multi-view correlation-aware framework named FlowID for network traffic detection. FlowID captures multi-view traffic features via temporal and interaction awareness, while a hypergraph encoder further explores higher-order relationships between flows. To overcome the challenges of data imbalance and label scarcity, we design a dual-contrastive proxy task, enhancing the framework's ability to differentiate between various traffic flows through traffic-to-traffic and group-to-group contrast. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that FlowID significantly outperforms existing methods in accuracy, robustness, and generalization across diverse network scenarios, particularly in detecting malicious traffic.

This paper presents a differentially private approach to Kaplan-Meier estimation that achieves accurate survival probability estimates while safeguarding individual privacy. The Kaplan-Meier estimator is widely used in survival analysis to estimate survival functions over time, yet applying it to sensitive datasets, such as clinical records, risks revealing private information. To address this, we introduce a novel algorithm that applies time-indexed Laplace noise, dynamic clipping, and smoothing to produce a privacy-preserving survival curve while maintaining the cumulative structure of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. By scaling noise over time, the algorithm accounts for decreasing sensitivity as fewer individuals remain at risk, while dynamic clipping and smoothing prevent extreme values and reduce fluctuations, preserving the natural shape of the survival curve. Our results, evaluated on the NCCTG lung cancer dataset, show that the proposed method effectively lowers root mean squared error (RMSE) and enhances accuracy across privacy budgets (epsilon). At epsilon = 10, the algorithm achieves an RMSE as low as 0.04, closely approximating non-private estimates. Additionally, membership inference attacks reveal that higher epsilon values (e.g., epsilon geq 6) significantly reduce influential points, particularly at higher thresholds, lowering susceptibility to inference attacks. These findings confirm that our approach balances privacy and utility, advancing privacy-preserving survival analysis.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) prediction is often approached by restricting models to causal or invariant covariates, avoiding non-causal spurious associations that may be unstable across environments. Despite its theoretical appeal, this strategy frequently underperforms empirical risk minimization (ERM) in practice. We investigate the source of this gap and show that such failures naturally arise when only a subset of the true causes of the outcome is observed. In these settings, non-causal spurious covariates can serve as informative proxies for unobserved causes and substantially improve prediction, except under distribution shifts that break these proxy relationships. Consequently, the optimal set of predictive covariates is neither universal nor necessarily exhibits invariant relationships with the outcome across all environments, but instead depends on the specific type of shift encountered. Crucially, we observe that different covariate shifts induce distinct, observable signatures in the covariate distribution itself. Moreover, these signatures can be extracted from unlabeled data in the target OOD environment and used to assess when proxy covariates remain reliable and when they fail. Building on this observation, we propose an environment-adaptive covariate selection (EACS) algorithm that maps environment-level covariate summaries to environment-specific covariate sets, while allowing the incorporation of prior causal knowledge as constraints. Across simulations and applied datasets, EACS consistently outperforms static causal, invariant, and ERM-based predictors under diverse distribution shifts.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.

The rapid deployment of AI systems in high-stakes domains, including those classified as high-risk under the The EU AI Act (Regulation (EU) 2024/1689), has intensified the need for reliable compliance auditing. For binary classifiers, regulatory risk assessment often relies on global fairness metrics such as the Disparate Impact ratio, widely used to evaluate potential discrimination. In typical auditing settings, the auditee provides a subset of its dataset to an auditor, while a supervisory authority may verify whether this subset is representative of the full underlying distribution. In this work, we investigate to what extent a malicious auditee can construct a fairness-compliant yet representative-looking sample from a non-compliant original distribution, thereby creating an illusion of fairness. We formalize this problem as a constrained distributional projection task and introduce mathematically grounded manipulation strategies based on entropic and optimal transport projections. These constructions characterize the minimal distributional shift required to satisfy fairness constraints. To counter such attacks, we formalize representativeness through distributional distance based statistical tests and systematically evaluate their ability to detect manipulated samples. Our analysis highlights the conditions under which fairness manipulation can remain statistically undetected and provides practical guidelines for strengthening supervisory verification. We validate our theoretical findings through experiments on standard tabular datasets for bias detection. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ValentinLafargue/Inspection.

We introduce a fairness-aware dataset for job recommendation in advertising, designed to foster research in algorithmic fairness within real-world scenarios. It was collected and prepared to comply with privacy standards and business confidentiality. An additional challenge is the lack of access to protected user attributes such as gender, for which we propose a solution to obtain a proxy estimate. Despite being anonymized and including a proxy for a sensitive attribute, our dataset preserves predictive power and maintains a realistic and challenging benchmark. This dataset addresses a significant gap in the availability of fairness-focused resources for high-impact domains like advertising -- the actual impact being having access or not to precious employment opportunities, where balancing fairness and utility is a common industrial challenge. We also explore various stages in the advertising process where unfairness can occur and introduce a method to compute a fair utility metric for the job recommendations in online systems case from a biased dataset. Experimental evaluations of bias mitigation techniques on the released dataset demonstrate potential improvements in fairness and the associated trade-offs with utility.

We propose a simple multiple outlier identification method for parametric location-scale and shape-scale models when the number of possible outliers is not specified. The method is based on a result giving asymptotic properties of extreme z-scores. Robust estimators of model parameters are used defining z-scores. An extensive simulation study was done for comparing of the proposed method with existing methods. For the normal family, the method is compared with the well known Davies-Gather, Rosner's, Hawking's and Bolshev's multiple outlier identification methods. The choice of an upper limit for the number of possible outliers in case of Rosner's test application is discussed. For other families, the proposed method is compared with a method generalizing Gather-Davies method. In most situations, the new method has the highest outlier identification power in terms of masking and swamping values. We also created R package outliersTests for proposed test.

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the causal relationships of the slate to reweight the rewards in the logging policy in a way that approximates the expected sum of rewards under the target policy. Extensive experiments in simulation and on a live recommender system show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of bias and data efficiency for the sequential track recommendations problem.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Recent legislation required AI platforms to provide APIs for regulators to assess their compliance with the law. Research has nevertheless shown that platforms can manipulate their API answers through fairwashing. Facing this threat for reliable auditing, this paper studies the benefits of the joint use of platform scraping and of APIs. In this setup, we elaborate on the use of scraping to detect manipulated answers: since fairwashing only manipulates API answers, exploiting scraps may reveal a manipulation. To abstract the wide range of specific API-scrap situations, we introduce a notion of proxy that captures the consistency an auditor might expect between both data sources. If the regulator has a good proxy of the consistency, then she can easily detect manipulation and even bypass the API to conduct her audit. On the other hand, without a good proxy, relying on the API is necessary, and the auditor cannot defend against fairwashing. We then simulate practical scenarios in which the auditor may mostly rely on the API to conveniently conduct the audit task, while maintaining her chances to detect a potential manipulation. To highlight the tension between the audit task and the API fairwashing detection task, we identify Pareto-optimal strategies in a practical audit scenario. We believe this research sets the stage for reliable audits in practical and manipulation-prone setups.