Daily Papers

Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive -- collectively accounting for all possible outcomes -- and mutually exclusive -- only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices of all related outcomes should be \1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where dependent assets are mispriced, allowing for purchasing (or selling) a certain outcome for less than (or more than) 1, guaranteeing profit. This phenomenon, known as arbitrage, could enable sophisticated participants to exploit such inconsistencies. In this paper, we conduct an empirical arbitrage analysis on Polymarket data to answer three key questions: (Q1) What conditions give rise to arbitrage (Q2) Does arbitrage actually occur on Polymarket and (Q3) Has anyone exploited these opportunities. A major challenge in analyzing arbitrage between related markets lies in the scalability of comparisons across a large number of markets and conditions, with a naive analysis requiring O(2^{n+m}) comparisons. To overcome this, we employ a heuristic-driven reduction strategy based on timeliness, topical similarity, and combinatorial relationships, further validated by expert input. Our study reveals two distinct forms of arbitrage on Polymarket: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage, which occurs within a single market or condition, and Combinatorial Arbitrage, which spans across multiple markets. We use on-chain historical order book data to analyze when these types of arbitrage opportunities have existed, and when they have been executed by users. We find a realized estimate of 40 million USD of profit extracted.

This chapter presents a calendar rebalancing approach to portfolios of stocks in the Indian stock market. Ten important sectors of the Indian economy are first selected. For each of these sectors, the top ten stocks are identified based on their free-float market capitalization values. Using the ten stocks in each sector, a sector-specific portfolio is designed. In this study, the historical stock prices are used from January 4, 2021, to September 20, 2023 (NSE Website). The portfolios are designed based on the training data from January 4, 2021 to June 30, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to September 20, 2023. The calendar rebalancing approach presented in the chapter is based on a yearly rebalancing method. However, the method presented is perfectly flexible and can be adapted for weekly or monthly rebalancing. The rebalanced portfolios for the ten sectors are analyzed in detail for their performances. The performance results are not only indicative of the relative performances of the sectors over the training (i.e., in-sample) data and test (out-of-sample) data, but they also reflect the overall effectiveness of the proposed portfolio rebalancing approach.

Since 2019, the Hugging Face Model Hub has been the primary global platform for sharing open weight AI models. By releasing a dataset of the complete history of weekly model downloads (June 2020-August 2025) alongside model metadata, we provide the most rigorous examination to-date of concentration dynamics and evolving characteristics in the open model economy. Our analysis spans 851,000 models, over 200 aggregated attributes per model, and 2.2B downloads. We document a fundamental rebalancing of economic power: US open-weight industry dominance by Google, Meta, and OpenAI has declined sharply in favor of unaffiliated developers, community organizations, and, as of 2025, Chinese industry, with DeepSeek and Qwen models potentially heralding a new consolidation of market power. We identify statistically significant shifts in model properties, a 17X increase in average model size, rapid growth in multimodal generation (3.4X), quantization (5X), and mixture-of-experts architectures (7X), alongside concerning declines in data transparency, with open weights models surpassing truly open source models for the first time in 2025. We expose a new layer of developer intermediaries that has emerged, focused on quantizing and adapting base models for both efficiency and artistic expression. To enable continued research and oversight, we release the complete dataset with an interactive dashboard for real-time monitoring of concentration dynamics and evolving properties in the open model economy.

This work builds on the theoretical frameworks presented in "Liquidity pools as mean field games: A new framework" and "Liquidity pools as mean field games with transaction costs" by the same author, where the strategic interactions among traders in a constant-product market-making protocol were modelled using mean field games (MFG), first without transaction costs and then incorporating them. Here we present the formulation of a more complete model that integrates three types of agents: traders, liquidity providers (LPs), and arbitrageurs. While we do not establish existence results for this general model, the formulation identifies the main technical difficulties and lays the groundwork for future work. The LP acts as a dominating player in the sense of 'Mean field games with a dominating player' by Bensoussan, Chau, and Yam: its strategy influences the mean field distribution of the traders, and the equilibrium is sought as a solution to the coupled system of three problems that constitute a Major-Minor game. The arbitrageurs operate by solving the optimization problem presented in "An analysis of uniswap markets" by Angeris et al., and their impact on the LP is captured through the loss-versus-rebalancing of "Automated market making and loss-versus-rebalancing" by Milionis et al. The material in this article should be read as an open research proposal rather than a collection of closed results.

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) along with two probabilistic deep learning models: DeepVAR and GPVAR to the task of one-day ahead multivariate forecasting. We then use these forecasts to optimize portfolios of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Our analysis presents results across different combinations of observation windows and rebalancing periods to compare performances of classical and deep learning variance-covariance estimation methods. The conclusions of the study are that although the strategies (portfolios) performance differed significantly between different combinations of parameters, generally the best results in terms of the information ratio and annualized returns are obtained using the LSTM-RNN models. Moreover, longer observation windows translate into better performance of the deep learning models indicating that these methods require longer windows to be able to efficiently capture the long-term dependencies of the variance-covariance matrix structure. Strategies with less frequent rebalancing typically perform better than these with the shortest rebalancing windows across all considered methods.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the domain of Quantitative Trading (QT) through the deployment of advanced algorithms capable of sifting through extensive financial datasets to pinpoint lucrative investment openings. AI-driven models, particularly those employing ML techniques such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, have shown great prowess in predicting market trends and executing trades at a speed and accuracy that far surpass human capabilities. Its capacity to automate critical tasks, such as discerning market conditions and executing trading strategies, has been pivotal. However, persistent challenges exist in current QT methods, especially in effectively handling noisy and high-frequency financial data. Striking a balance between exploration and exploitation poses another challenge for AI-driven trading agents. To surmount these hurdles, our proposed solution, QTNet, introduces an adaptive trading model that autonomously formulates QT strategies through an intelligent trading agent. Incorporating deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning methodologies, we bolster the proficiency of our model. To tackle the challenges posed by volatile financial datasets, we conceptualize the QT mechanism within the framework of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Moreover, by embedding imitative learning, the model can capitalize on traditional trading tactics, nurturing a balanced synergy between discovery and utilization. For a more realistic simulation, our trading agent undergoes training using minute-frequency data sourced from the live financial market. Experimental findings underscore the model's proficiency in extracting robust market features and its adaptability to diverse market conditions.

We study a game between liquidity provider and liquidity taker agents interacting in an over-the-counter market, for which the typical example is foreign exchange. We show how a suitable design of parameterized families of reward functions coupled with shared policy learning constitutes an efficient solution to this problem. By playing against each other, our deep-reinforcement-learning-driven agents learn emergent behaviors relative to a wide spectrum of objectives encompassing profit-and-loss, optimal execution and market share. In particular, we find that liquidity providers naturally learn to balance hedging and skewing, where skewing refers to setting their buy and sell prices asymmetrically as a function of their inventory. We further introduce a novel RL-based calibration algorithm which we found performed well at imposing constraints on the game equilibrium. On the theoretical side, we are able to show convergence rates for our multi-agent policy gradient algorithm under a transitivity assumption, closely related to generalized ordinal potential games.

This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of momentum and short-term reversion in dictating sectoral shifts. A subsequent in-depth fundamental analysis evaluates metrics such as PE, PB, EV-to-EBITDA, Dividend Yield, among others. Our primary contribution lies in developing a predictive framework based on these fundamental indicators. The constructed models, post rigorous training, exhibit noteworthy predictive capabilities. The findings furnish a nuanced understanding of sector rotation strategies, with implications for asset management and portfolio construction in the financial domain.

Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockchain-based protocols that independently list economically identical events. In the absence of a shared notion of event identity, liquidity fails to pool across venues, arbitrage becomes capital-intensive or unenforceable, and prices systematically violate the Law of One Price. As a result, market prices reflect platform-local beliefs rather than a single, globally aggregated probability, undermining the core information-aggregation function of prediction markets. We address this gap by introducing a semantic alignment framework that makes cross-platform event identity explicit through joint analysis of natural-language descriptions, resolution semantics, and temporal scope. Applying this framework, we construct the first human-validated, cross-platform dataset of aligned prediction markets, covering over 100 000 events across ten major venues from 2018 to 2025. Using this dataset, we show that roughly 6% of all events are concurrently listed across platforms and that semantically equivalent markets exhibit persistent execution-aware price deviations of 2-4% on average, even in highly liquid and information-rich settings. These mispricings give rise to persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities driven by structural frictions rather than informational disagreement. Overall, our results demonstrate that semantic non-fungibility is a fundamental barrier to price convergence, and that resolving event identity is a prerequisite for prediction markets to aggregate information at a global scale.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

The realm of High-Frequency Trading (HFT) is characterized by rapid decision-making processes that capitalize on fleeting market inefficiencies. As the financial markets become increasingly competitive, there is a pressing need for innovative strategies that can adapt and evolve with changing market dynamics. Enter Reinforcement Learning (RL), a branch of machine learning where agents learn by interacting with their environment, making it an intriguing candidate for HFT applications. This paper dives deep into the integration of RL in statistical arbitrage strategies tailored for HFT scenarios. By leveraging the adaptive learning capabilities of RL, we explore its potential to unearth patterns and devise trading strategies that traditional methods might overlook. We delve into the intricate exploration-exploitation trade-offs inherent in RL and how they manifest in the volatile world of HFT. Furthermore, we confront the challenges of applying RL in non-stationary environments, typical of financial markets, and investigate methodologies to mitigate associated risks. Through extensive simulations and backtests, our research reveals that RL not only enhances the adaptability of trading strategies but also shows promise in improving profitability metrics and risk-adjusted returns. This paper, therefore, positions RL as a pivotal tool for the next generation of HFT-based statistical arbitrage, offering insights for both researchers and practitioners in the field.

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

Organizations typically train large models individually. This is costly and time-consuming, particularly for large-scale foundation models. Such vertical production is known to be suboptimal. Inspired by this economic insight, we ask whether it is possible to leverage others' expertise by trading the constituent parts in models, i.e., sets of weights, as if they were market commodities. While recent advances in aligning and interpolating models suggest that doing so may be possible, a number of fundamental questions must be answered to create viable parameter markets. In this work, we address these basic questions, propose a framework containing the infrastructure necessary for market operations to take place, study strategies for exchanging parameters, and offer means for agents to monetize parameters. Excitingly, compared to agents who train siloed models from scratch, we show that it is possible to mutually gain by using the market, even in competitive settings. This suggests that the notion of parameter markets may be a useful paradigm for improving large-scale model training in the future.

In this research, we have empirically investigated the key drivers affecting liquidity in equity markets. We illustrated how theoretical models, such as Kyle's model, of agents' interplay in the financial markets, are aligned with the phenomena observed in publicly available trades and quotes data. Specifically, we confirmed that for small signed order-flows, the price impact grows linearly with increase in the order-flow imbalance. We have, further, implemented a machine learning algorithm to forecast market impact given a signed order-flow. Our findings suggest that machine learning models can be used in estimation of financial variables; and predictive accuracy of such learning algorithms can surpass the performance of traditional statistical approaches. Understanding the determinants of price impact is crucial for several reasons. From a theoretical stance, modelling the impact provides a statistical measure of liquidity. Practitioners adopt impact models as a pre-trade tool to estimate expected transaction costs and optimize the execution of their strategies. This further serves as a post-trade valuation benchmark as suboptimal execution can significantly deteriorate a portfolio performance. More broadly, the price impact reflects the balance of liquidity across markets. This is of central importance to regulators as it provides an all-encompassing explanation of the correlation between market design and systemic risk, enabling regulators to design more stable and efficient markets.

The inherent non-stationarity of financial markets and the complexity of multi-modal information pose significant challenges to existing quantitative trading models. Traditional methods relying on fixed structures and unimodal data struggle to adapt to market regime shifts, while large language model (LLM)-driven solutions - despite their multi-modal comprehension - suffer from static strategies and homogeneous expert designs, lacking dynamic adjustment and fine-grained decision mechanisms. To address these limitations, we propose MM-DREX: a Multimodal-driven, Dynamically-Routed EXpert framework based on large language models. MM-DREX explicitly decouples market state perception from strategy execution to enable adaptive sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments. Specifically, it (1) introduces a vision-language model (VLM)-powered dynamic router that jointly analyzes candlestick chart patterns and long-term temporal features to allocate real-time expert weights; (2) designs four heterogeneous trading experts (trend, reversal, breakout, positioning) generating specialized fine-grained sub-strategies; and (3) proposes an SFT-RL hybrid training paradigm to synergistically optimize the router's market classification capability and experts' risk-adjusted decision-making. Extensive experiments on multi-modal datasets spanning stocks, futures, and cryptocurrencies demonstrate that MM-DREX significantly outperforms 15 baselines (including state-of-the-art financial LLMs and deep reinforcement learning models) across key metrics: total return, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown, validating its robustness and generalization. Additionally, an interpretability module traces routing logic and expert behavior in real time, providing an audit trail for strategy transparency.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding reasoning capabilities on mathematical and coding tasks. However, their application to financial tasks-especially the most fundamental task of stock movement prediction-remains underexplored. We study a three-class classification problem (up, hold, down) and, by analyzing existing reasoning responses, observe that: (1) LLMs follow analysts' opinions rather than exhibit a systematic, independent analytical logic (CoTs). (2) LLMs list summaries from different sources without weighing adversarial evidence, yet such counterevidence is crucial for reliable prediction. It shows that the model does not make good use of its reasoning ability to complete the task. To address this, we propose Reflective Evidence Tuning (RETuning), a cold-start method prior to reinforcement learning, to enhance prediction ability. While generating CoT, RETuning encourages dynamically constructing an analytical framework from diverse information sources, organizing and scoring evidence for price up or down based on that framework-rather than on contextual viewpoints-and finally reflecting to derive the prediction. This approach maximally aligns the model with its learned analytical framework, ensuring independent logical reasoning and reducing undue influence from context. We also build a large-scale dataset spanning all of 2024 for 5,123 A-share stocks, with long contexts (32K tokens) and over 200K samples. In addition to price and news, it incorporates analysts' opinions, quantitative reports, fundamental data, macroeconomic indicators, and similar stocks. Experiments show that RETuning successfully unlocks the model's reasoning ability in the financial domain. Inference-time scaling still works even after 6 months or on out-of-distribution stocks, since the models gain valuable insights about stock movement prediction.

Conventional models of matching markets assume that monetary transfers can clear markets by compensating for utility differentials. However, empirical patterns show that such transfers often fail to close structural preference gaps. This paper introduces a market microstructure framework that models matching decisions as a limit order book system with rigid bid ask spreads. Individual preferences are represented by a latent preference state matrix, where the spread between an agent's internal ask price (the unconditional maximum) and the market's best bid (the reachable maximum) creates a structural liquidity constraint. We establish a Threshold Impossibility Theorem showing that linear compensation cannot close these spreads unless it induces a categorical identity shift. A dynamic discrete choice execution model further demonstrates that matches occur only when the market to book ratio crosses a time decaying liquidity threshold, analogous to order execution under inventory pressure. Numerical experiments validate persistent slippage, regional invariance of preference orderings, and high tier zero spread executions. The model provides a unified microstructure explanation for matching failures, compensation inefficiency, and post match regret in illiquid order driven environments.

In this paper we pursue the question of a fully online trading algorithm (i.e. one that does not need offline training on previously gathered data). For this task we use Double Deep Q-learning in the episodic setting with Fast Learning Networks approximating the expected reward Q. Additionally, we define the possible terminal states of an episode in such a way as to introduce a mechanism to conserve some of the money in the trading pool when market conditions are seen as unfavourable. Some of these money are taken as profit and some are reused at a later time according to certain criteria. After describing the algorithm, we test it using the 1-minute-tick data for Cardano's price on Binance. We see that the agent performs better than trading with randomly chosen actions on each timestep. And it does so when tested on the whole dataset as well as on different subsets, capturing different market trends.

We initiate the study of statistical inference and A/B testing for first-price pacing equilibria (FPPE). The FPPE model captures the dynamics resulting from large-scale first-price auction markets where buyers use pacing-based budget management. Such markets arise in the context of internet advertising, where budgets are prevalent. We propose a statistical framework for the FPPE model, in which a limit FPPE with a continuum of items models the long-run steady-state behavior of the auction platform, and an observable FPPE consisting of a finite number of items provides the data to estimate primitives of the limit FPPE, such as revenue, Nash social welfare (a fair metric of efficiency), and other parameters of interest. We develop central limit theorems and asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic local minimax optimality of our estimators. We then show that the theory can be used for conducting statistically valid A/B testing on auction platforms. Numerical simulations verify our central limit theorems, and empirical coverage rates for our confidence intervals agree with our theory.

We study the perfect information Nash equilibrium between a broker and her clients -- an informed trader and an uniformed trader. In our model, the broker trades in the lit exchange where trades have instantaneous and transient price impact with exponential resilience, while both clients trade with the broker. The informed trader and the broker maximise expected wealth subject to inventory penalties, while the uninformed trader is not strategic and sends the broker random buy and sell orders. We characterise the Nash equilibrium of the trading strategies with the solution to a coupled system of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs). We solve this system explicitly and study the effect of information, profitability, and inventory control in the trading strategies of the broker and the informed trader.

We present a new type of game, the Liquidity Game. We draw inspiration from the UK government bond market and apply game theoretic approaches to its analysis. In Liquidity Games, market participants (agents) use non-cooperative games where the players' utility is directly defined by the liquidity of the game itself, offering a paradigm shift in our understanding of market dynamics. Each player's utility is intricately linked to the liquidity generated within the game, making the utility endogenous and dynamic. Players are not just passive recipients of utility based on external factors but active participants whose strategies and actions collectively shape and are shaped by the liquidity of the market. This reflexivity introduces a level of complexity and realism previously unattainable in conventional models. We apply Liquidity Game theoretic approaches to a simple UK bond market interaction and present results for market design and strategic behavior of participants. We tackle one of the largest issues within this mechanism, namely what strategy should market makers utilize when uncertain about the type of market maker they are interacting with, and what structure might regulators wish to see.

Congestion is a common failure mode of markets, where consumers compete inefficiently on the same subset of goods (e.g., chasing the same small set of properties on a vacation rental platform). The typical economic story is that prices decongest by balancing supply and demand. But in modern online marketplaces, prices are typically set in a decentralized way by sellers, and the information about items is inevitably partial. The power of a platform is limited to controlling representations -- the subset of information about items presented by default to users. This motivates the present study of decongestion by representation, where a platform seeks to learn representations that reduce congestion and thus improve social welfare. The technical challenge is twofold: relying only on revealed preferences from the choices of consumers, rather than true preferences; and the combinatorial problem associated with representations that determine the features to reveal in the default view. We tackle both challenges by proposing a differentiable proxy of welfare that can be trained end-to-end on consumer choice data. We develop sufficient conditions for when decongestion promotes welfare, and present the results of extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data that demonstrate the utility of our approach.

We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products, 2- to 12-hour blocks, and baseload contracts significantly (up to 13%) improves accuracy at all levels. These results remain consistent throughout a challenging 4-year test period (2021-2024) in the German power market and across model architectures, including linear regression, a shallow neural network, gradient boosting, and a state-of-the-art transformer. Given that (i) trading of block products is becoming more common and (ii) the computational cost of reconciliation is comparable to that of predicting hourly prices alone, we recommend using it in daily forecasting practice.

This study develops and empirically validates a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for stock price prediction across heterogeneous volatility regimes using real market data. The proposed model combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) optimized for high-volatility stocks with a linear regression model tailored to stable equities. A volatility-aware gating mechanism dynamically weights the contributions of each expert based on asset classification. Using a dataset of 30 publicly traded U.S. stocks spanning diverse sectors, the MoE approach consistently outperforms both standalone models. Specifically, it achieves up to 33% improvement in MSE for volatile assets and 28% for stable assets relative to their respective baselines. Stratified evaluation across volatility classes demonstrates the model's ability to adapt complexity to underlying market dynamics. These results confirm that no single model suffices across market regimes and highlight the advantage of adaptive architectures in financial prediction. Future work should explore real-time gate learning, dynamic volatility segmentation, and applications to portfolio optimization.

MarketSenseAI is a novel framework for holistic stock analysis which leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to process financial news, historical prices, company fundamentals and the macroeconomic environment to support decision making in stock analysis and selection. In this paper, we present the latest advancements on MarketSenseAI, driven by rapid technological expansion in LLMs. Through a novel architecture combining Retrieval-Augmented Generation and LLM agents, the framework processes SEC filings and earnings calls, while enriching macroeconomic analysis through systematic processing of diverse institutional reports. We demonstrate a significant improvement in fundamental analysis accuracy over the previous version. Empirical evaluation on S\&P 100 stocks over two years (2023-2024) shows MarketSenseAI achieving cumulative returns of 125.9% compared to the index return of 73.5%, while maintaining comparable risk profiles. Further validation on S\&P 500 stocks during 2024 demonstrates the framework's scalability, delivering a 33.8% higher Sortino ratio than the market. This work marks a significant advancement in applying LLM technology to financial analysis, offering insights into the robustness of LLM-driven investment strategies.

We introduce the Consensus-Bottleneck Asset Pricing Model (CB-APM), a framework that reconciles the predictive power of deep learning with the structural transparency of traditional finance. By embedding aggregate analyst consensus as a structural "bottleneck", the model treats professional beliefs as a sufficient statistic for the market's high-dimensional information set. We document a striking "interpretability-accuracy amplification effect" for annual horizons, the structural constraint acts as an endogenous regularizer that significantly improves out-of-sample R2 over unconstrained benchmarks. Portfolios sorted on CB-APM forecasts exhibit a strong monotonic return gradient, delivering an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.44 and robust performance across macroeconomic regimes. Furthermore, pricing diagnostics reveal that the learned consensus captures priced variation only partially spanned by canonical factor models, identifying structured risk heterogeneity that standard linear models systematically miss. Our results suggest that anchoring machine intelligence to human-expert belief formation is not merely a tool for transparency, but a catalyst for uncovering new dimensions of belief-driven risk premiums.

As the global economy transitions toward decarbonization, the aluminium sector has become a focal point for strategic resource management. While policies such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aim to reduce emissions, they have inadvertently widened the price arbitrage between primary metal, scrap, and semi-finished goods, creating new incentives for market optimization. This study presents a unified, unsupervised machine learning framework to detect and classify emerging trade anomalies within UN Comtrade data (2020 to 2024). Moving beyond traditional rule-based monitoring, we apply a four-layer analytical pipeline utilizing Forensic Statistics, Isolation Forests, Network Science, and Deep Autoencoders. Contrary to the hypothesis that Sustainability Arbitrage would be the primary driver, empirical results reveal a contradictory and more severe phenomenon of Hardware Masking. Illicit actors exploit bi-directional tariff incentives by misclassifying scrap as high-count heterogeneous goods to justify extreme unit-price outliers of >$160/kg, a 1,900% markup indicative of Trade-Based Money Laundering (TBML) rather than commercial arbitrage. Topologically, risk is not concentrated in major exporters but in high-centrality Shadow Hubs that function as pivotal nodes for illicit rerouting. These actors execute a strategy of Void-Shoring, systematically suppressing destination data to Unspecified Code to fracture mirror statistics and sever forensic trails. Validated by SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), the results confirm that price deviation is the dominant predictor of anomalies, necessitating a paradigm shift in customs enforcement from physical volume checks to dynamic, algorithmic valuation auditing.

Budget management strategies in repeated auctions have received growing attention in online advertising markets. However, previous work on budget management in online bidding mainly focused on second-price auctions. The rapid shift from second-price auctions to first-price auctions for online ads in recent years has motivated the challenging question of how to bid in repeated first-price auctions while controlling budgets. In this work, we study the problem of learning in repeated first-price auctions with budgets. We design a dual-based algorithm that can achieve a near-optimal O(T) regret with full information feedback where the maximum competing bid is always revealed after each auction. We further consider the setting with one-sided information feedback where only the winning bid is revealed after each auction. We show that our modified algorithm can still achieve an O(T) regret with mild assumptions on the bidder's value distribution. Finally, we complement the theoretical results with numerical experiments to confirm the effectiveness of our budget management policy.

This paper proposes a reinforcement learning framework that employs Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to dynamically optimize the weights of multiple large language model (LLM)-generated formulaic alphas for stock trading strategies. Formulaic alphas are mathematically defined trading signals derived from price, volume, sentiment, and other data. Although recent studies have shown that LLMs can generate diverse and effective alphas, a critical challenge lies in how to adaptively integrate them under varying market conditions. To address this gap, we leverage the deepseek-r1-distill-llama-70b model to generate fifty alphas for five major stocks: Apple, HSBC, Pepsi, Toyota, and Tencent, and then use PPO to adjust their weights in real time. Experimental results demonstrate that the PPO-optimized strategy achieves strong returns and high Sharpe ratios across most stocks, outperforming both an equal-weighted alpha portfolio and traditional benchmarks such as the Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and Hang Seng Index. The findings highlight the importance of reinforcement learning in the allocation of alpha weights and show the potential of combining LLM-generated signals with adaptive optimization for robust financial forecasting and trading.

Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a universal tokenization scheme that map the heterogeneous, multi-modal event stream of order flow into a unified discrete sequence -- eliminating asset-specific calibration. Integrated with a deterministic market simulator, TradeFM-generated rollouts reproduce key stylized facts of financial returns, including heavy tails, volatility clustering, and absence of return autocorrelation. Quantitatively, TradeFM achieves 2-3x lower distributional error than Compound Hawkes baselines and generalizes zero-shot to geographically out-of-distribution APAC markets with moderate perplexity degradation. Together, these results suggest that scale-invariant trade representations capture transferable structure in market microstructure, opening a path toward synthetic data generation, stress testing, and learning-based trading agents.

Large language models show promise for financial decision-making, yet deploying them as autonomous trading agents raises fundamental challenges: how to adapt instructions when rewards arrive late and obscured by market noise, how to synthesize heterogeneous information streams into coherent decisions, and how to bridge the gap between model outputs and executable market actions. We present ATLAS (Adaptive Trading with LLM AgentS), a unified multi-agent framework that integrates structured information from markets, news, and corporate fundamentals to support robust trading decisions. Within ATLAS, the central trading agent operates in an order-aware action space, ensuring that outputs correspond to executable market orders rather than abstract signals. The agent can incorporate feedback while trading using Adaptive-OPRO, a novel prompt-optimization technique that dynamically adapts the prompt by incorporating real-time, stochastic feedback, leading to increasing performance over time. Across regime-specific equity studies and multiple LLM families, Adaptive-OPRO consistently outperforms fixed prompts, while reflection-based feedback fails to provide systematic gains.

The study proposes a quote-driven predictive automated market maker (AMM) platform with on-chain custody and settlement functions, alongside off-chain predictive reinforcement learning capabilities to improve liquidity provision of real-world AMMs. The proposed AMM architecture is an augmentation to the Uniswap V3, a cryptocurrency AMM protocol, by utilizing a novel market equilibrium pricing for reduced divergence and slippage loss. Further, the proposed architecture involves a predictive AMM capability, utilizing a deep hybrid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Q-learning reinforcement learning framework that looks to improve market efficiency through better forecasts of liquidity concentration ranges, so liquidity starts moving to expected concentration ranges, prior to asset price movement, so that liquidity utilization is improved. The augmented protocol framework is expected have practical real-world implications, by (i) reducing divergence loss for liquidity providers, (ii) reducing slippage for crypto-asset traders, while (iii) improving capital efficiency for liquidity provision for the AMM protocol. To our best knowledge, there are no known protocol or literature that are proposing similar deep learning-augmented AMM that achieves similar capital efficiency and loss minimization objectives for practical real-world applications.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

The use of synthetic data has played a critical role in recent state-of-art breakthroughs. However, overly relying on a single oracle teacher model to generate data has been shown to lead to model collapse and invite propagation of biases. These limitations are particularly evident in multilingual settings, where the absence of a universally effective teacher model that excels across all languages presents significant challenges. In this work, we address these extreme difference by introducing "multilingual arbitrage", which capitalizes on performance variations between multiple models for a given language. To do so, we strategically route samples through a diverse pool of models, each with unique strengths in different languages. Across exhaustive experiments on state-of-art models, our work suggests that arbitrage techniques allow for spectacular gains in performance that far outperform relying on a single teacher. In particular, compared to the best single teacher, we observe gains of up to 56.5% improvement in win rates averaged across all languages when switching to multilingual arbitrage. We observe the most significant gains for the least resourced languages in our pool.

The inherent volatility and dynamic fluctuations within the financial stock market underscore the necessity for investors to employ a comprehensive and reliable approach that integrates risk management strategies, market trends, and the movement trends of individual securities. By evaluating specific data, investors can make more informed decisions. However, the current body of literature lacks substantial evidence supporting the practical efficacy of reinforcement learning (RL) agents, as many models have only demonstrated success in back testing using historical data. This highlights the urgent need for a more advanced methodology capable of addressing these challenges. There is a significant disconnect in the effective utilization of financial indicators to better understand the potential market trends of individual securities. The disclosure of successful trading strategies is often restricted within financial markets, resulting in a scarcity of widely documented and published strategies leveraging RL. Furthermore, current research frequently overlooks the identification of financial indicators correlated with various market trends and their potential advantages. This research endeavors to address these complexities by enhancing the ability of RL agents to effectively differentiate between positive and negative buy/sell actions using financial indicators. While we do not address all concerns, this paper provides deeper insights and commentary on the utilization of technical indicators and their benefits within reinforcement learning. This work establishes a foundational framework for further exploration and investigation of more complex scenarios.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

Prediction markets allow users to trade on outcomes of real-world events, but are prone to fragmentation through overlapping questions, implicit equivalences, and hidden contradictions across markets. We present an agentic AI pipeline that autonomously (i) clusters markets into coherent topical groups using natural-language understanding over contract text and metadata, and (ii) identifies within-cluster market pairs whose resolved outcomes exhibit strong dependence, including same-outcome (correlated) and different-outcome (anti-correlated) relationships. Using a historical dataset of resolved markets on Polymarket, we evaluate the accuracy of the agent's relational predictions. We then translate discovered relationships into a simple trading strategy to quantify how these relationships map to actionable signals. Results show that agent-identified relationships achieve roughly 60-70% accuracy, and their induced trading strategies earn about 20% average returns over week-long horizons, highlighting the ability of agentic AI and large language models to uncover latent semantic structure in prediction markets.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

We introduce a novel hybrid approach that augments Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with behaviors generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human trading interactions. We call our model TraderTalk. Leveraging LLMs trained on extensive human-authored text, we capture detailed and nuanced representations of bilateral conversations in financial trading. Applying this Generative Agent-Based Model (GABM) to government bond markets, we replicate trading decisions between two stylised virtual humans. Our method addresses both structural challenges, such as coordinating turn-taking between realistic LLM-based agents, and design challenges, including the interpretation of LLM outputs by the agent model. By exploring prompt design opportunistically rather than systematically, we enhance the realism of agent interactions without exhaustive overfitting or model reliance. Our approach successfully replicates trade-to-order volume ratios observed in related asset markets, demonstrating the potential of LLM-augmented ABMs in financial simulations

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

As LLM agents advance, they are increasingly mediating economic decisions, ranging from product discovery to transactions, on behalf of users. Such applications promise benefits but also raise many questions about agent accountability and value for users. Addressing these questions requires understanding how agents behave in realistic market conditions. However, previous research has largely evaluated agents in constrained settings, such as single-task marketplaces (e.g., negotiation) or structured two-agent interactions. Real-world markets are fundamentally different: they require agents to handle diverse economic activities and coordinate within large, dynamic ecosystems where multiple agents with opaque behaviors may engage in open-ended dialogues. To bridge this gap, we investigate two-sided agentic marketplaces where Assistant agents represent consumers and Service agents represent competing businesses. To study these interactions safely, we develop Magentic-Marketplace-- a simulated environment where Assistants and Services can operate. This environment enables us to study key market dynamics: the utility agents achieve, behavioral biases, vulnerability to manipulation, and how search mechanisms shape market outcomes. Our experiments show that frontier models can approach optimal welfare-- but only under ideal search conditions. Performance degrades sharply with scale, and all models exhibit severe first-proposal bias, creating 10-30x advantages for response speed over quality. These findings reveal how behaviors emerge across market conditions, informing the design of fair and efficient agentic marketplaces.

In financial trading, large language model (LLM)-based agents demonstrate significant potential. However, the high sensitivity to market noise undermines the performance of LLM-based trading systems. To address this limitation, we propose a novel multi-agent system featuring an internal competitive mechanism inspired by modern corporate management structures. The system consists of two specialized teams: (1) Data Team - responsible for processing and condensing massive market data into diversified text factors, ensuring they fit the model's constrained context. (2) Research Team - tasked with making parallelized multipath trading decisions based on deep research methods. The core innovation lies in implementing a real-time evaluation and ranking mechanism within each team, driven by authentic market feedback. Each agent's performance undergoes continuous scoring and ranking, with only outputs from top-performing agents being adopted. The design enables the system to adaptively adjust to dynamic environment, enhances robustness against market noise and ultimately delivers superior trading performance. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed system significantly outperforms prevailing multi-agent systems and traditional quantitative investment methods across diverse evaluation metrics. ContestTrade is open-sourced on GitHub at https://github.com/FinStep-AI/ContestTrade.

This paper analyzes how expectations of Transformative AI (TAI) affect current economic behavior by introducing a novel mechanism where automation redirects labor income from workers to those controlling AI systems, with the share of automated labor controlled by each household depending on their wealth at the time of invention. Using a modified neoclassical growth model calibrated to contemporary AI timeline forecasts, I find that even moderate assumptions about wealth-based allocation of AI labor generate substantial increases in pre-TAI interest rates. Under baseline scenarios with proportional wealth-based allocation, one-year interest rates rise to 10-16% compared to approximately 3% without strategic competition. The model reveals a notable divergence between interest rates and capital rental rates, as households accept lower productive returns in exchange for the strategic value of wealth accumulation. These findings suggest that evolving beliefs about TAI could create significant upward pressure on interest rates well before any technological breakthrough occurs, with important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

Although machine learning tasks are highly sensitive to the quality of input data, relevant datasets can often be challenging for firms to acquire, especially when held privately by a variety of owners. For instance, if these owners are competitors in a downstream market, they may be reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our setup.

In the highly volatile and uncertain global financial markets, traditional quantitative trading models relying on statistical modeling or empirical rules often fail to adapt to dynamic market changes and black swan events due to rigid assumptions and limited generalization. To address these issues, this paper proposes QTMRL (Quantitative Trading Multi-Indicator Reinforcement Learning), an intelligent trading agent combining multi-dimensional technical indicators with reinforcement learning (RL) for adaptive and stable portfolio management. We first construct a comprehensive multi-indicator dataset using 23 years of S&P 500 daily OHLCV data (2000-2022) for 16 representative stocks across 5 sectors, enriching raw data with trend, volatility, and momentum indicators to capture holistic market dynamics. Then we design a lightweight RL framework based on the Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C) algorithm, including data processing, A2C algorithm, and trading agent modules to support policy learning and actionable trading decisions. Extensive experiments compare QTMRL with 9 baselines (e.g., ARIMA, LSTM, moving average strategies) across diverse market regimes, verifying its superiority in profitability, risk adjustment, and downside risk control. The code of QTMRL is publicly available at https://github.com/ChenJiahaoJNU/QTMRL.git

The feasibility of making profitable trades on a single asset on stock exchanges based on patterns identification has long attracted researchers. Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Natural Language Processing have gained notoriety in these single-asset trading tasks, but only a few works have explored their combination. Moreover, some issues are still not addressed, such as extracting market sentiment momentum through the explicit capture of sentiment features that reflect the market condition over time and assessing the consistency and stability of RL results in different situations. Filling this gap, we propose the Sentiment-Aware RL (SentARL) intelligent trading system that improves profit stability by leveraging market mood through an adaptive amount of past sentiment features drawn from textual news. We evaluated SentARL across twenty assets, two transaction costs, and five different periods and initializations to show its consistent effectiveness against baselines. Subsequently, this thorough assessment allowed us to identify the boundary between news coverage and market sentiment regarding the correlation of price-time series above which SentARL's effectiveness is outstanding.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting the volatility of three equities listed on India's national stock market (NSE), we propose multiple volatility models depending on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Glosten-Jagannathan-GARCH (GJR-GARCH), Exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH), and LSTM framework. Sector-wise stocks have been chosen in our study. The sectors which have been considered are banking, information technology (IT), and pharma. yahoo finance has been used to obtain stock price data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2021. Among the pulled-out records, the data from Jan 2017 to Dec 2020 have been taken for training, and data from 2021 have been chosen for testing our models. The performance of predicting the volatility of stocks of three sectors has been evaluated by implementing three different types of GARCH models as well as by the LSTM model are compared. It has been observed the LSTM performed better in predicting volatility in pharma over banking and IT sectors. In tandem, it was also observed that E-GARCH performed better in the case of the banking sector and for IT and pharma, GJR-GARCH performed better.

Market manipulation now routinely originates from coordinated social media campaigns, not isolated trades. Retail investors, regulators, and brokerages need tools that connect online narratives and coordination patterns to market behavior. We present AIMM, an AI-driven framework that fuses Reddit activity, bot and coordination indicators, and OHLCV market features into a daily AIMM Manipulation Risk Score for each ticker. The system uses a parquet-native pipeline with a Streamlit dashboard that allows analysts to explore suspicious windows, inspect underlying posts and price action, and log model outputs over time. Due to Reddit API restrictions, we employ calibrated synthetic social features matching documented event characteristics; market data (OHLCV) uses real historical data from Yahoo Finance. This release makes three contributions. First, we build the AIMM Ground Truth dataset (AIMM-GT): 33 labeled ticker-days spanning eight equities, drawing from SEC enforcement actions, community-verified manipulation cases, and matched normal controls. Second, we implement forward-walk evaluation and prospective prediction logging for both retrospective and deployment-style assessment. Third, we analyze lead times and show that AIMM flagged GME 22 days before the January 2021 squeeze peak. The current labeled set is small (33 ticker-days, 3 positive events), but results show preliminary discriminative capability and early warnings for the GME incident. We release the code, dataset schema, and dashboard design to support research on social media-driven market surveillance.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

This paper presents a dynamic cryptocurrency portfolio optimization strategy that integrates technical indicators and sentiment analysis to enhance investment decision-making. The proposed method employs the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to capture market momentum, while sentiment scores are extracted from news articles using the VADER (Valence Aware Dictionary and sEntiment Reasoner) model, with compound scores quantifying overall market tone. The large language model Google Gemini is used to further verify the sentiment scores predicted by VADER and give investment decisions. These technical indicator and sentiment signals are incorporated into the expected return estimates before applying mean-variance optimization with constraints on asset weights. The strategy is evaluated through a rolling-window backtest over cryptocurrency market data, with Bitcoin (BTC) and an equal-weighted portfolio of selected cryptocurrencies serving as benchmarks. Experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves a cumulative return of 38.72, substantially exceeding Bitcoin's 8.85 and the equal-weighted portfolio's 21.65 over the same period, and delivers a higher Sharpe ratio (1.1093 vs. 0.8853 and 1.0194, respectively). However, the strategy exhibits a larger maximum drawdown (-18.52%) compared to Bitcoin (-4.48%) and the equal-weighted portfolio (-11.02%), indicating higher short-term downside risk. These results highlight the potential of combining sentiment and technical signals to improve cryptocurrency portfolio performance, while also emphasizing the need to address risk exposure in volatile markets.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.