Daily Papers

Existing research on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) primarily focuses on improving overall question-answering accuracy, often overlooking the quality of sub-claims within generated responses. Recent methods that attempt to improve RAG trustworthiness, such as through auto-evaluation metrics, lack probabilistic guarantees or require ground truth answers. To address these limitations, we propose Conformal-RAG, a novel framework inspired by recent applications of conformal prediction (CP) on large language models (LLMs). Conformal-RAG leverages CP and internal information from the RAG mechanism to offer statistical guarantees on response quality. It ensures group-conditional coverage spanning multiple sub-domains without requiring manual labelling of conformal sets, making it suitable for complex RAG applications. Compared to existing RAG auto-evaluation methods, Conformal-RAG offers statistical guarantees on the quality of refined sub-claims, ensuring response reliability without the need for ground truth answers. Additionally, our experiments demonstrate that by leveraging information from the RAG system, Conformal-RAG retains up to 60\% more high-quality sub-claims from the response compared to direct applications of CP to LLMs, while maintaining the same reliability guarantee.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

Natural language understanding (NLU) is an essential branch of natural language processing, which relies on representations generated by pre-trained language models (PLMs). However, PLMs primarily focus on acquiring lexico-semantic information, while they may be unable to adequately handle the meaning of constructions. To address this issue, we introduce construction grammar (CxG), which highlights the pairings of form and meaning, to enrich language representation. We adopt usage-based construction grammar as the basis of our work, which is highly compatible with statistical models such as PLMs. Then a HyCxG framework is proposed to enhance language representation through a three-stage solution. First, all constructions are extracted from sentences via a slot-constraints approach. As constructions can overlap with each other, bringing redundancy and imbalance, we formulate the conditional max coverage problem for selecting the discriminative constructions. Finally, we propose a relational hypergraph attention network to acquire representation from constructional information by capturing high-order word interactions among constructions. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model on a variety of NLU tasks.

Language model post-training has enhanced instruction-following and performance on many downstream tasks, but also comes with an often-overlooked cost on tasks with many possible valid answers. We characterize three desiderata for conditional distributional modeling: in-context steerability, valid output space coverage, and distributional alignment, and document across three model families how current post-training can reduce these properties. In particular, we disambiguate between two kinds of in-context learning: ICL for eliciting existing underlying knowledge or capabilities, and in-context steerability, where a model must use in-context information to override its priors and steer to a novel data generating distribution. To better evaluate and improve these desiderata, we introduce Spectrum Suite, a large-scale resource compiled from >40 data sources and spanning >90 tasks requiring models to steer to and match diverse distributions ranging from varied human preferences to numerical distributions and more. We find that while current post-training techniques help elicit underlying capabilities and knowledge, they hurt models' ability to flexibly steer in-context. To mitigate these issues, we propose Spectrum Tuning, a post-training method using Spectrum Suite to improve steerability and distributional coverage. We find that Spectrum Tuning often improves over pretrained models and their instruction-tuned counterparts, enhancing steerability, spanning more of the output space, and improving distributional alignment on held-out datasets.

Generating 3D images of complex objects conditionally from a few 2D views is a difficult synthesis problem, compounded by issues such as domain gap and geometric misalignment. For instance, a unified framework such as Generative Adversarial Networks cannot achieve this unless they explicitly define both a domain-invariant and geometric-invariant joint latent distribution, whereas Neural Radiance Fields are generally unable to handle both issues as they optimize at the pixel level. By contrast, we propose a simple and novel 2D to 3D synthesis approach based on conditional diffusion with vector-quantized codes. Operating in an information-rich code space enables high-resolution 3D synthesis via full-coverage attention across the views. Specifically, we generate the 3D codes (e.g. for CT images) conditional on previously generated 3D codes and the entire codebook of two 2D views (e.g. 2D X-rays). Qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance over specialized methods across varied evaluation criteria, including fidelity metrics such as density, coverage, and distortion metrics for two complex volumetric imagery datasets from in real-world scenarios.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Large climate-model ensembles are computationally expensive; yet many downstream analyses would benefit from additional, statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal climate variables. We study a generative modeling approach for producing new realizations from a limited set of available runs by transferring structure learned across an ensemble. Using monthly near-surface temperature time series from ten independent reanalysis realizations (ERA5), we find that a vanilla conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) trained jointly across realizations yields a fragmented latent space that fails to generalize to unseen ensemble members. To address this, we introduce a latent-constrained CVAE (LC-CVAE) that enforces cross-realization homogeneity of latent embeddings at a small set of shared geographic 'anchor' locations. We then use multi-output Gaussian process regression in the latent space to predict latent coordinates at unsampled locations in a new realization, followed by decoding to generate full time series fields. Experiments and ablations demonstrate (i) instability when training on a single realization, (ii) diminishing returns after incorporating roughly five realizations, and (iii) a trade-off between spatial coverage and reconstruction quality that is closely linked to the average neighbor distance in latent space.

While conditional diffusion models are known to have good coverage of the data distribution, they still face limitations in output diversity, particularly when sampled with a high classifier-free guidance scale for optimal image quality or when trained on small datasets. We attribute this problem to the role of the conditioning signal in inference and offer an improved sampling strategy for diffusion models that can increase generation diversity, especially at high guidance scales, with minimal loss of sample quality. Our sampling strategy anneals the conditioning signal by adding scheduled, monotonically decreasing Gaussian noise to the conditioning vector during inference to balance diversity and condition alignment. Our Condition-Annealed Diffusion Sampler (CADS) can be used with any pretrained model and sampling algorithm, and we show that it boosts the diversity of diffusion models in various conditional generation tasks. Further, using an existing pretrained diffusion model, CADS achieves a new state-of-the-art FID of 1.70 and 2.31 for class-conditional ImageNet generation at 256times256 and 512times512 respectively.

Evaluating whether text-to-image models follow explicit spatial instructions is difficult to automate. Object detectors may miss targets or return multiple plausible detections, and simple geometric tests can become ambiguous in borderline cases. Spatial evaluation is naturally a selective prediction problem, the checker may abstain when evidence is weak and report confidence so that results can be interpreted as a risk coverage tradeoff rather than a single score. We introduce SpatialBench-UC, a small, reproducible benchmark for pairwise spatial relations. The benchmark contains 200 prompts (50 object pairs times 4 relations) grouped into 100 counterfactual pairs obtained by swapping object roles. We release a benchmark package, versioned prompts, pinned configs, per-sample checker outputs, and report tables, enabling reproducible and auditable comparisons across models. We also include a lightweight human audit used to calibrate the checker's abstention margin and confidence threshold. We evaluate three baselines, Stable Diffusion 1.5, SD 1.5 BoxDiff, and SD 1.4 GLIGEN. The checker reports pass rate and coverage as well as conditional pass rates on decided samples. The results show that grounding methods substantially improve both pass rate and coverage, while abstention remains a dominant factor due mainly to missing detections.

Transforming two-dimensional (2D) images into three-dimensional (3D) volumes is a well-known yet challenging problem for the computer vision community. In the medical domain, a few previous studies attempted to convert two or more input radiographs into computed tomography (CT) volumes. Following their effort, we introduce a diffusion model-based technology that can rotate the anatomical content of any input radiograph in 3D space, potentially enabling the visualization of the entire anatomical content of the radiograph from any viewpoint in 3D. Similar to previous studies, we used CT volumes to create Digitally Reconstructed Radiographs (DRRs) as the training data for our model. However, we addressed two significant limitations encountered in previous studies: 1. We utilized conditional diffusion models with classifier-free guidance instead of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to achieve higher mode coverage and improved output image quality, with the only trade-off being slower inference time, which is often less critical in medical applications; and 2. We demonstrated that the unreliable output of style transfer deep learning (DL) models, such as Cycle-GAN, to transfer the style of actual radiographs to DRRs could be replaced with a simple yet effective training transformation that randomly changes the pixel intensity histograms of the input and ground-truth imaging data during training. This transformation makes the diffusion model agnostic to any distribution variations of the input data pixel intensity, enabling the reliable training of a DL model on input DRRs and applying the exact same model to conventional radiographs (or DRRs) during inference.

Classifier guidance is a recently introduced method to trade off mode coverage and sample fidelity in conditional diffusion models post training, in the same spirit as low temperature sampling or truncation in other types of generative models. Classifier guidance combines the score estimate of a diffusion model with the gradient of an image classifier and thereby requires training an image classifier separate from the diffusion model. It also raises the question of whether guidance can be performed without a classifier. We show that guidance can be indeed performed by a pure generative model without such a classifier: in what we call classifier-free guidance, we jointly train a conditional and an unconditional diffusion model, and we combine the resulting conditional and unconditional score estimates to attain a trade-off between sample quality and diversity similar to that obtained using classifier guidance.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

Explorable 3D world generation from a single image or text prompt forms a cornerstone of spatial intelligence. Recent works utilize video model to achieve wide-scope and generalizable 3D world generation. However, existing approaches often suffer from a limited scope in the generated scenes. In this work, we propose Matrix-3D, a framework that utilize panoramic representation for wide-coverage omnidirectional explorable 3D world generation that combines conditional video generation and panoramic 3D reconstruction. We first train a trajectory-guided panoramic video diffusion model that employs scene mesh renders as condition, to enable high-quality and geometrically consistent scene video generation. To lift the panorama scene video to 3D world, we propose two separate methods: (1) a feed-forward large panorama reconstruction model for rapid 3D scene reconstruction and (2) an optimization-based pipeline for accurate and detailed 3D scene reconstruction. To facilitate effective training, we also introduce the Matrix-Pano dataset, the first large-scale synthetic collection comprising 116K high-quality static panoramic video sequences with depth and trajectory annotations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art performance in panoramic video generation and 3D world generation. See more in https://matrix-3d.github.io.

Artifacts in electroencephalography (EEG) -- muscle, eye movement, electrode, chewing, and shiver -- confound automated analysis yet are costly to label at scale. We study whether modern generative models can synthesize realistic, label-aware artifact segments suitable for augmentation and stress-testing. Using the TUH EEG Artifact (TUAR) corpus, we curate subject-wise splits and fixed-length multi-channel windows (e.g., 250 samples) with preprocessing tailored to each model (per-window min--max for adversarial training; per-recording/channel z-score for diffusion). We compare a conditional WGAN-GP with a projection discriminator to a 1D denoising diffusion model with classifier-free guidance, and evaluate along three axes: (i) fidelity via Welch band-power deltas (Deltadelta, Deltatheta, Deltaalpha, Deltabeta), channel-covariance Frobenius distance, autocorrelation L_2, and distributional metrics (MMD/PRD); (ii) specificity via class-conditional recovery with lightweight kNN/classifiers; and (iii) utility via augmentation effects on artifact recognition. In our setting, WGAN-GP achieves closer spectral alignment and lower MMD to real data, while both models exhibit weak class-conditional recovery, limiting immediate augmentation gains and revealing opportunities for stronger conditioning and coverage. We release a reproducible pipeline -- data manifests, training configurations, and evaluation scripts -- to establish a baseline for EEG artifact synthesis and to surface actionable failure modes for future work.

We describe a Question Answering (QA) dataset that contains complex questions with conditional answers, i.e. the answers are only applicable when certain conditions apply. We call this dataset ConditionalQA. In addition to conditional answers, the dataset also features: (1) long context documents with information that is related in logically complex ways; (2) multi-hop questions that require compositional logical reasoning; (3) a combination of extractive questions, yes/no questions, questions with multiple answers, and not-answerable questions; (4) questions asked without knowing the answers. We show that ConditionalQA is challenging for many of the existing QA models, especially in selecting answer conditions. We believe that this dataset will motivate further research in answering complex questions over long documents. Data and leaderboard are publicly available at https://github.com/haitian-sun/ConditionalQA.

Conditional Text Generation has drawn much attention as a topic of Natural Language Generation (NLG) which provides the possibility for humans to control the properties of generated contents. Current conditional generation models cannot handle emerging conditions due to their joint end-to-end learning fashion. When a new condition added, these techniques require full retraining. In this paper, we present a new framework named Pre-train and Plug-in Variational Auto-Encoder (PPVAE) towards flexible conditional text generation. PPVAE decouples the text generation module from the condition representation module to allow "one-to-many" conditional generation. When a fresh condition emerges, only a lightweight network needs to be trained and works as a plug-in for PPVAE, which is efficient and desirable for real-world applications. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of PPVAE against the existing alternatives with better conditionality and diversity but less training effort.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Conditional contrastive learning frameworks consider the conditional sampling procedure that constructs positive or negative data pairs conditioned on specific variables. Fair contrastive learning constructs negative pairs, for example, from the same gender (conditioning on sensitive information), which in turn reduces undesirable information from the learned representations; weakly supervised contrastive learning constructs positive pairs with similar annotative attributes (conditioning on auxiliary information), which in turn are incorporated into the representations. Although conditional contrastive learning enables many applications, the conditional sampling procedure can be challenging if we cannot obtain sufficient data pairs for some values of the conditioning variable. This paper presents Conditional Contrastive Learning with Kernel (CCL-K) that converts existing conditional contrastive objectives into alternative forms that mitigate the insufficient data problem. Instead of sampling data according to the value of the conditioning variable, CCL-K uses the Kernel Conditional Embedding Operator that samples data from all available data and assigns weights to each sampled data given the kernel similarity between the values of the conditioning variable. We conduct experiments using weakly supervised, fair, and hard negatives contrastive learning, showing CCL-K outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

In online reinforcement learning (RL), instead of employing standard structural assumptions on Markov decision processes (MDPs), using a certain coverage condition (original from offline RL) is enough to ensure sample-efficient guarantees (Xie et al. 2023). In this work, we focus on this new direction by digging more possible and general coverage conditions, and study the potential and the utility of them in efficient online RL. We identify more concepts, including the L^p variant of concentrability, the density ratio realizability, and trade-off on the partial/rest coverage condition, that can be also beneficial to sample-efficient online RL, achieving improved regret bound. Furthermore, if exploratory offline data are used, under our coverage conditions, both statistically and computationally efficient guarantees can be achieved for online RL. Besides, even though the MDP structure is given, e.g., linear MDP, we elucidate that, good coverage conditions are still beneficial to obtain faster regret bound beyond O(T) and even a logarithmic order regret. These results provide a good justification for the usage of general coverage conditions in efficient online RL.

Learning the response of single-cells to various treatments offers great potential to enable targeted therapies. In this context, neural optimal transport (OT) has emerged as a principled methodological framework because it inherently accommodates the challenges of unpaired data induced by cell destruction during data acquisition. However, most existing OT approaches are incapable of conditioning on different treatment contexts (e.g., time, drug treatment, drug dosage, or cell type) and we still lack methods that unanimously show promising generalization performance to unseen treatments. Here, we propose the Conditional Monge Gap which learns OT maps conditionally on arbitrary covariates. We demonstrate its value in predicting single-cell perturbation responses conditional to one or multiple drugs, a drug dosage, or combinations thereof. We find that our conditional models achieve results comparable and sometimes even superior to the condition-specific state-of-the-art on scRNA-seq as well as multiplexed protein imaging data. Notably, by aggregating data across conditions we perform cross-task learning which unlocks remarkable generalization abilities to unseen drugs or drug dosages, widely outperforming other conditional models in capturing heterogeneity (i.e., higher moments) in the perturbed population. Finally, by scaling to hundreds of conditions and testing on unseen drugs, we narrow the gap between structure-based and effect-based drug representations, suggesting a promising path to the successful prediction of perturbation effects for unseen treatments.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the benchmark for causal inference, yet field implementation can deviate. We here present a remote audit - a design-based, preregistrable diagnostic that uses only pre-treatment satellite imagery to test whether assignment is independent of local conditions. The conditional randomization test of the remote audit evaluates whether treatment assignment is more predictable from pre-treatment satellite features than expected under the experiment's registered mechanism, providing a finite-sample valid, design-based diagnostic that requires no parametric assumptions. The procedure is finite-sample valid, honors blocks and clusters, and controls multiplicity across image models and resolutions via a max-statistic. We illustrate with two RCTs: Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program, where the audit corroborates randomization and flags selection and missing-data risks; and a school-based trial in Bangladesh, where assignment is highly predictable from pre-treatment features relative to the stated design, consistent with independent concerns about irregularities. Remote audits complement balance tests, lower early-stage costs, and enable rapid design checks when baseline surveys are expensive or infeasible.

Controllable layout generation refers to the process of creating a plausible visual arrangement of elements within a graphic design (e.g., document and web designs) with constraints representing design intentions. Although recent diffusion-based models have achieved state-of-the-art FID scores, they tend to exhibit more pronounced misalignment compared to earlier transformer-based models. In this work, we propose the LAyout Constraint diffusion modEl (LACE), a unified model to handle a broad range of layout generation tasks, such as arranging elements with specified attributes and refining or completing a coarse layout design. The model is based on continuous diffusion models. Compared with existing methods that use discrete diffusion models, continuous state-space design can enable the incorporation of differentiable aesthetic constraint functions in training. For conditional generation, we introduce conditions via masked input. Extensive experiment results show that LACE produces high-quality layouts and outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines.

Deep generative models are becoming a cornerstone of modern machine learning. Recent work on conditional generative adversarial networks has shown that learning complex, high-dimensional distributions over natural images is within reach. While the latest models are able to generate high-fidelity, diverse natural images at high resolution, they rely on a vast quantity of labeled data. In this work we demonstrate how one can benefit from recent work on self- and semi-supervised learning to outperform the state of the art on both unsupervised ImageNet synthesis, as well as in the conditional setting. In particular, the proposed approach is able to match the sample quality (as measured by FID) of the current state-of-the-art conditional model BigGAN on ImageNet using only 10% of the labels and outperform it using 20% of the labels.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Diffusion models are powerful generative models that allow for precise control over the characteristics of the generated samples. While these diffusion models trained on large datasets have achieved success, there is often a need to introduce additional controls in downstream fine-tuning processes, treating these powerful models as pre-trained diffusion models. This work presents a novel method based on reinforcement learning (RL) to add such controls using an offline dataset comprising inputs and labels. We formulate this task as an RL problem, with the classifier learned from the offline dataset and the KL divergence against pre-trained models serving as the reward functions. Our method, CTRL (Conditioning pre-Trained diffusion models with Reinforcement Learning), produces soft-optimal policies that maximize the abovementioned reward functions. We formally demonstrate that our method enables sampling from the conditional distribution with additional controls during inference. Our RL-based approach offers several advantages over existing methods. Compared to classifier-free guidance, it improves sample efficiency and can greatly simplify dataset construction by leveraging conditional independence between the inputs and additional controls. Additionally, unlike classifier guidance, it eliminates the need to train classifiers from intermediate states to additional controls. The code is available at https://github.com/zhaoyl18/CTRL.

With COVID-19 having emerged as the most widespread human pandemic disease in a century, the need to control its spread to avoid massive loss of life became more than necessary, and extremely fast. Several vaccines were developed and the task of policy makers was suddenly to convince the reluctant population to be vaccinated by various means. While some countries have chosen a policy of mandatory vaccination or punitive incentives, many states in the United States have adopted various incentives to try to increase vaccination coverage. A study we conducted in recent months quantified the effect of these measures on the proportion of the population vaccinated, using the synthetic control method, by simulating what would have happened without these measures. The aim now is to generalize this study to smaller scales, to improve the results of our previous study, to quantify their robustness and to provide a tool that can be used by policy makers to adapt their behavior in light of the results obtained.

We seek to identify the most relevant benefits offered by Medicare Advantage Health Plans that drive membership and market share. As an example, we explore plans operating in a single county in New Jersey between 2018 and 2023. A dataset of benefits from publicly available data sources was created and the variance inflation factor was applied to identify the correlation between the extracted features, to avoid multicollinearity and overparameterization problems. We categorized the variable Market Share and used it as a multinomial response variable with three categories: less than 0.3\%, 0.3\% to 1.5\%, and over 1.5\%. Categories were chosen to achieve approximately uniform distribution of plans (47, 60, and 65 respectively). We built a multinomial Lasso model using 5-fold cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. Lasso forced some features to be dropped from the model, which reduces the risk of overfitting and increases the interpretability of the results. For each category, important variables are different. Certain brands drive market share, as do PPO plans and prescription drug coverage. Benefits, particularly ancillary benefits that are not part of CMS's required benefits, appear to have little influence, while financial terms such as deductibles, copays, and out-of-pocket limits are associated with higher market share. Finally, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Lasso model with the test set. The accuracy is 0.76.

Generative Adversarial Nets [8] were recently introduced as a novel way to train generative models. In this work we introduce the conditional version of generative adversarial nets, which can be constructed by simply feeding the data, y, we wish to condition on to both the generator and discriminator. We show that this model can generate MNIST digits conditioned on class labels. We also illustrate how this model could be used to learn a multi-modal model, and provide preliminary examples of an application to image tagging in which we demonstrate how this approach can generate descriptive tags which are not part of training labels.

Minibatch optimal transport coupling straightens paths in unconditional flow matching. This leads to computationally less demanding inference as fewer integration steps and less complex numerical solvers can be employed when numerically solving an ordinary differential equation at test time. However, in the conditional setting, minibatch optimal transport falls short. This is because the default optimal transport mapping disregards conditions, resulting in a conditionally skewed prior distribution during training. In contrast, at test time, we have no access to the skewed prior, and instead sample from the full, unbiased prior distribution. This gap between training and testing leads to a subpar performance. To bridge this gap, we propose conditional optimal transport C^2OT that adds a conditional weighting term in the cost matrix when computing the optimal transport assignment. Experiments demonstrate that this simple fix works with both discrete and continuous conditions in 8gaussians-to-moons, CIFAR-10, ImageNet-32x32, and ImageNet-256x256. Our method performs better overall compared to the existing baselines across different function evaluation budgets. Code is available at https://hkchengrex.github.io/C2OT

Conditional diffusion models are powerful generative models that can leverage various types of conditional information, such as class labels, segmentation masks, or text captions. However, in many real-world scenarios, conditional information may be noisy or unreliable due to human annotation errors or weak alignment. In this paper, we propose the Coherence-Aware Diffusion (CAD), a novel method that integrates coherence in conditional information into diffusion models, allowing them to learn from noisy annotations without discarding data. We assume that each data point has an associated coherence score that reflects the quality of the conditional information. We then condition the diffusion model on both the conditional information and the coherence score. In this way, the model learns to ignore or discount the conditioning when the coherence is low. We show that CAD is theoretically sound and empirically effective on various conditional generation tasks. Moreover, we show that leveraging coherence generates realistic and diverse samples that respect conditional information better than models trained on cleaned datasets where samples with low coherence have been discarded.

Conditional computing processes an input using only part of the neural network's computational units. Learning to execute parts of a deep convolutional network by routing individual samples has several advantages: Reducing the computational burden is an obvious advantage. Furthermore, if similar classes are routed to the same path, that part of the network learns to discriminate between finer differences and better classification accuracies can be attained with fewer parameters. Recently, several papers have exploited this idea to take a particular child of a node in a tree-shaped network or to skip parts of a network. In this work, we follow a Trellis-based approach for generating specific execution paths in a deep convolutional neural network. We have designed routing mechanisms that use differentiable information gain-based cost functions to determine which subset of features in a convolutional layer will be executed. We call our method Conditional Information Gain Trellis (CIGT). We show that our conditional execution mechanism achieves comparable or better model performance compared to unconditional baselines, using only a fraction of the computational resources.

Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs) are a class of metalearning models popular for combining the runtime efficiency of amortized inference with reliable uncertainty quantification. Many relevant machine learning tasks, such as in spatio-temporal modeling, Bayesian Optimization and continuous control, inherently contain equivariances -- for example to translation -- which the model can exploit for maximal performance. However, prior attempts to include equivariances in CNPs do not scale effectively beyond two input dimensions. In this work, we propose Relational Conditional Neural Processes (RCNPs), an effective approach to incorporate equivariances into any neural process model. Our proposed method extends the applicability and impact of equivariant neural processes to higher dimensions. We empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of RCNPs on a large array of tasks naturally containing equivariances.

We consider the problem of weakly supervised object detection, where the training samples are annotated using only image-level labels that indicate the presence or absence of an object category. In order to model the uncertainty in the location of the objects, we employ a dissimilarity coefficient based probabilistic learning objective. The learning objective minimizes the difference between an annotation agnostic prediction distribution and an annotation aware conditional distribution. The main computational challenge is the complex nature of the conditional distribution, which consists of terms over hundreds or thousands of variables. The complexity of the conditional distribution rules out the possibility of explicitly modeling it. Instead, we exploit the fact that deep learning frameworks rely on stochastic optimization. This allows us to use a state of the art discrete generative model that can provide annotation consistent samples from the conditional distribution. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach.

Few-shot learning (FSL) has recently been extensively utilized to overcome the scarcity of training data in domain-specific visual recognition. In real-world scenarios, environmental factors such as complex backgrounds, varying lighting conditions, long-distance shooting, and moving targets often cause test images to exhibit numerous incomplete targets or noise disruptions. However, current research on evaluation datasets and methodologies has largely ignored the concept of "environmental robustness", which refers to maintaining consistent performance in complex and diverse physical environments. This neglect has led to a notable decline in the performance of FSL models during practical testing compared to their training performance. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new real-world multi-domain few-shot learning (RD-FSL) benchmark, which includes four domains and six evaluation datasets. The test images in this benchmark feature various challenging elements, such as camouflaged objects, small targets, and blurriness. Our evaluation experiments reveal that existing methods struggle to utilize training images effectively to generate accurate feature representations for challenging test images. To address this problem, we propose a novel conditional representation learning network (CRLNet) that integrates the interactions between training and testing images as conditional information in their respective representation processes. The main goal is to reduce intra-class variance or enhance inter-class variance at the feature representation level. Finally, comparative experiments reveal that CRLNet surpasses the current state-of-the-art methods, achieving performance improvements ranging from 6.83% to 16.98% across diverse settings and backbones. The source code and dataset are available at https://github.com/guoqianyu-alberta/Conditional-Representation-Learning.

Faced with distribution shift between training and test set, we wish to detect and quantify the shift, and to correct our classifiers without test set labels. Motivated by medical diagnosis, where diseases (targets) cause symptoms (observations), we focus on label shift, where the label marginal p(y) changes but the conditional p(x| y) does not. We propose Black Box Shift Estimation (BBSE) to estimate the test distribution p(y). BBSE exploits arbitrary black box predictors to reduce dimensionality prior to shift correction. While better predictors give tighter estimates, BBSE works even when predictors are biased, inaccurate, or uncalibrated, so long as their confusion matrices are invertible. We prove BBSE's consistency, bound its error, and introduce a statistical test that uses BBSE to detect shift. We also leverage BBSE to correct classifiers. Experiments demonstrate accurate estimates and improved prediction, even on high-dimensional datasets of natural images.

The extant insurance literature demonstrates a paucity of finite-sample valid prediction intervals of future insurance claims in the regression setting. To address this challenge, this article proposes a new strategy that converts a predictive method in the unsupervised iid (independent identically distributed) setting to a predictive method in the regression setting. In particular, it enables an actuary to obtain infinitely many finite-sample valid prediction intervals in the regression setting.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

With the rapid development of diffusion models in image generation, the demand for more powerful and flexible controllable frameworks is increasing. Although existing methods can guide generation beyond text prompts, the challenge of effectively combining multiple conditional inputs while maintaining consistency with all of them remains unsolved. To address this, we introduce UniCombine, a DiT-based multi-conditional controllable generative framework capable of handling any combination of conditions, including but not limited to text prompts, spatial maps, and subject images. Specifically, we introduce a novel Conditional MMDiT Attention mechanism and incorporate a trainable LoRA module to build both the training-free and training-based versions. Additionally, we propose a new pipeline to construct SubjectSpatial200K, the first dataset designed for multi-conditional generative tasks covering both the subject-driven and spatially-aligned conditions. Extensive experimental results on multi-conditional generation demonstrate the outstanding universality and powerful capability of our approach with state-of-the-art performance.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize the expected loss (risk) against a worst-case distribution consistent with the prediction set's coverage guarantee. We first characterize the minimax optimal policy for a fixed prediction set, showing that it balances the worst-case loss inside the set with a penalty for potential losses outside the set. Building on this, we derive the optimal prediction set construction that minimizes the resulting robust risk subject to a coverage constraint. Finally, we introduce Risk-Optimal Conformal Prediction (ROCP), a practical algorithm that targets these risk-minimizing sets while maintaining finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage. Empirical evaluations on medical diagnosis and safety-critical decision-making tasks demonstrate that ROCP reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, particularly when out-of-set errors are costly.

Learning to play optimally against any mixture over a diverse set of strategies is of important practical interests in competitive games. In this paper, we propose simplex-NeuPL that satisfies two desiderata simultaneously: i) learning a population of strategically diverse basis policies, represented by a single conditional network; ii) using the same network, learn best-responses to any mixture over the simplex of basis policies. We show that the resulting conditional policies incorporate prior information about their opponents effectively, enabling near optimal returns against arbitrary mixture policies in a game with tractable best-responses. We verify that such policies behave Bayes-optimally under uncertainty and offer insights in using this flexibility at test time. Finally, we offer evidence that learning best-responses to any mixture policies is an effective auxiliary task for strategic exploration, which, by itself, can lead to more performant populations.

We present Condition-Aware Neural Network (CAN), a new method for adding control to image generative models. In parallel to prior conditional control methods, CAN controls the image generation process by dynamically manipulating the weight of the neural network. This is achieved by introducing a condition-aware weight generation module that generates conditional weight for convolution/linear layers based on the input condition. We test CAN on class-conditional image generation on ImageNet and text-to-image generation on COCO. CAN consistently delivers significant improvements for diffusion transformer models, including DiT and UViT. In particular, CAN combined with EfficientViT (CaT) achieves 2.78 FID on ImageNet 512x512, surpassing DiT-XL/2 while requiring 52x fewer MACs per sampling step.