Daily Papers

Modern buildings are densely equipped with smart energy meters, which periodically generate a massive amount of time-series data yielding few million data points every day. This data can be leveraged to discover the underlying loads, infer their energy consumption patterns, inter-dependencies on environmental factors, and the building's operational properties. Furthermore, it allows us to simultaneously identify anomalies present in the electricity consumption profiles, which is a big step towards saving energy and achieving global sustainability. However, to date, the lack of large-scale annotated energy consumption datasets hinders the ongoing research in anomaly detection. We contribute to this effort by releasing a well-annotated version of a publicly available ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III data set containing 1,413 smart electricity meter time series spanning over one year. In addition, we benchmark the performance of eight state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods on our dataset and compare their performance.

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.

Urban Building Energy Modeling plays a critical role in achieving the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 11. Although existing studies based on satellite imagery and deep learning have achieved remarkable progress, many challenges exist: most existing studies are inherently predictive, failing to reflect the generative nature of urban planning; although generative AI and diffusion models have seen explosive growth in satellite imagery, they lack the urban functional generation (e.g., energy layer); third, aligned high-quality high-resolution building energy data with satellite imagery is limited and scarce. Here we propose SENSE (Satellite-based ENergy Synthesis for Sustainable Environment), a unified generative UBEM framework that jointly synthesizes realistic urban satellite imagery and aligned high-quality building energy consumption and height maps. By conditioning on road networks and urban density metrics, SENSE, based on a controllable diffusion model, leverages the knowledge learned by large vision models to generate urban building energy consumption and height information (annotations) in the latent space. Experiments across four cities (New York City, Boston, Lyon, Busan) demonstrate that SENSE achieves high visual fidelity and strong physical consistency, satisfying the ASHRAE standard metric. Experiments demonstrate that SENSE can generate enough annotated synthetic data using less than 20% labeled energy data, boosting downstream prediction performance by 10% IoU. Compared to SOTA urban energy prediction methods, SENSE significantly reduced prediction error (reduced 3%-11% NMBE and 1%-9% CVRMSE). This study offers an energy-efficiency urban planning and physical generation solution for urban science, energy science and building science. The dataset and code: https://huggingface.co/datasets/skl24/MUSE and https://github.com/kailaisun/GenAI4Urban-Energy/.

Renewable energy forecasting is attaining greater importance due to its constant increase in contribution to the electrical power grids. Solar energy is one of the most significant contributors to renewable energy and is dependent on solar irradiation. For the effective management of electrical power grids, forecasting models that predict solar irradiation, with high accuracy, are needed. In the current study, Machine Learning techniques such as Linear Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting and Genetic Algorithm Optimization are used to forecast solar irradiation. The data used for training and validation is recorded from across three different geographical stations in the United States that are part of the SURFRAD network. A Global Horizontal Index (GHI) is predicted for the models built and compared. Genetic Algorithm Optimization is applied to XGB to further improve the accuracy of solar irradiation prediction.

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the operation and planning of PV systems, thereby enabling efficient energy management and grid integration. However, un certainties caused by fluctuating weather conditions and complex interactions between different variables pose significant challenges to accurate PV power forecasting. In this study, we propose PV-Client (Cross-variable Linear Integrated ENhanced Transformer for Photovoltaic power forecasting) to address these challenges and enhance PV power forecasting accuracy. PV-Client employs an ENhanced Transformer module to capture complex interactions of various features in PV systems, and utilizes a linear module to learn trend information in PV power. Diverging from conventional time series-based Transformer models that use cross-time Attention to learn dependencies between different time steps, the Enhanced Transformer module integrates cross-variable Attention to capture dependencies between PV power and weather factors. Furthermore, PV-Client streamlines the embedding and position encoding layers by replacing the Decoder module with a projection layer. Experimental results on three real-world PV power datasets affirm PV-Client's state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in PV power forecasting. Specifically, PV-Client surpasses the second-best model GRU by 5.3% in MSE metrics and 0.9% in accuracy metrics at the Jingang Station. Similarly, PV-Client outperforms the second-best model SVR by 10.1% in MSE metrics and 0.2% in accuracy metrics at the Xinqingnian Station, and PV-Client exhibits superior performance compared to the second-best model SVR with enhancements of 3.4% in MSE metrics and 0.9% in accuracy metrics at the Hongxing Station.