Daily Papers

Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology have brought about a plethora of new challenges in terms of governance and regulation. AI systems are being integrated into various industries and sectors, creating a demand from decision-makers to possess a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the capabilities and limitations of these systems. One critical aspect of this demand is the ability to explain the results of machine learning models, which is crucial to promoting transparency and trust in AI systems, as well as fundamental in helping machine learning models to be trained ethically. In this paper, we present novel metrics to quantify the degree of which AI model predictions can be easily explainable by its features. Our metrics summarize different aspects of explainability into scalars, providing a more comprehensive understanding of model predictions and facilitating communication between decision-makers and stakeholders, thereby increasing the overall transparency and accountability of AI systems.

This paper presents a modeling effort to explore the underlying physics of temperature evolution during additive friction stir deposition (AFSD) by a human-AI teaming approach. AFSD is an emerging solid-state additive manufacturing technology that deposits materials without melting. However, both process modeling and modeling of the AFSD tool are at an early stage. In this paper, a human-AI teaming approach is proposed to combine models based on first principles with AI. The resulting human-informed machine learning method, denoted as AFSD-Physics, can effectively learn the governing equations of temperature evolution at the tool and the build from in-process measurements. Experiments are designed and conducted to collect in-process measurements for the deposition of aluminum 7075 with a total of 30 layers. The acquired governing equations are physically interpretable models with low computational cost and high accuracy. Model predictions show good agreement with the measurements. Experimental validation with new process parameters demonstrates the model's generalizability and potential for use in tool temperature control and process optimization.

Recent work has proposed artificial intelligence (AI) models that can learn to decide whether to make a prediction for an instance of a task or to delegate it to a human by considering both parties' capabilities. In simulations with synthetically generated or context-independent human predictions, delegation can help improve the performance of human-AI teams -- compared to humans or the AI model completing the task alone. However, so far, it remains unclear how humans perform and how they perceive the task when they are aware that an AI model delegated task instances to them. In an experimental study with 196 participants, we show that task performance and task satisfaction improve through AI delegation, regardless of whether humans are aware of the delegation. Additionally, we identify humans' increased levels of self-efficacy as the underlying mechanism for these improvements in performance and satisfaction. Our findings provide initial evidence that allowing AI models to take over more management responsibilities can be an effective form of human-AI collaboration in workplaces.

Over the last decade, explainable AI has primarily focused on interpreting individual model predictions, producing post-hoc explanations that relate inputs to outputs under a fixed decision structure. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled agentic AI systems whose behaviour unfolds over multi-step trajectories. In these settings, success and failure are determined by sequences of decisions rather than a single output. While useful, it remains unclear how explanation approaches designed for static predictions translate to agentic settings where behaviour emerges over time. In this work, we bridge the gap between static and agentic explainability by comparing attribution-based explanations with trace-based diagnostics across both settings. To make this distinction explicit, we empirically compare attribution-based explanations used in static classification tasks with trace-based diagnostics used in agentic benchmarks (TAU-bench Airline and AssistantBench). Our results show that while attribution methods achieve stable feature rankings in static settings (Spearman ρ= 0.86), they cannot be applied reliably to diagnose execution-level failures in agentic trajectories. In contrast, trace-grounded rubric evaluation for agentic settings consistently localizes behaviour breakdowns and reveals that state tracking inconsistency is 2.7times more prevalent in failed runs and reduces success probability by 49\%. These findings motivate a shift towards trajectory-level explainability for agentic systems when evaluating and diagnosing autonomous AI behaviour. Resources: https://github.com/VectorInstitute/unified-xai-evaluation-framework https://vectorinstitute.github.io/unified-xai-evaluation-framework

Progress in computer-aided synthesis planning (CASP) is obscured by the lack of standardized evaluation infrastructure and the reliance on metrics that prioritize topological completion over chemical validity. We introduce RetroCast, a unified evaluation suite that standardizes heterogeneous model outputs into a common schema to enable statistically rigorous, apples-to-apples comparison. The framework includes a reproducible benchmarking pipeline with stratified sampling and bootstrapped confidence intervals, accompanied by SynthArena, an interactive platform for qualitative route inspection. We utilize this infrastructure to evaluate leading search-based and sequence-based algorithms on a new suite of standardized benchmarks. Our analysis reveals a divergence between "solvability" (stock-termination rate) and route quality; high solvability scores often mask chemical invalidity or fail to correlate with the reproduction of experimental ground truths. Furthermore, we identify a "complexity cliff" in which search-based methods, despite high solvability rates, exhibit a sharp performance decay in reconstructing long-range synthetic plans compared to sequence-based approaches. We release the full framework, benchmark definitions, and a standardized database of model predictions to support transparent and reproducible development in the field.

Recent advancements in machine learning have spurred growing interests in automated interpreting quality assessment. Nevertheless, existing research suffers from insufficient examination of language use quality, unsatisfactory modeling effectiveness due to data scarcity and imbalance, and a lack of efforts to explain model predictions. To address these gaps, we propose a multi-dimensional modeling framework that integrates feature engineering, data augmentation, and explainable machine learning. This approach prioritizes explainability over ``black box'' predictions by utilizing only construct-relevant, transparent features and conducting Shapley Value (SHAP) analysis. Our results demonstrate strong predictive performance on a novel English-Chinese consecutive interpreting dataset, identifying BLEURT and CometKiwi scores to be the strongest predictive features for fidelity, pause-related features for fluency, and Chinese-specific phraseological diversity metrics for language use. Overall, by placing particular emphasis on explainability, we present a scalable, reliable, and transparent alternative to traditional human evaluation, facilitating the provision of detailed diagnostic feedback for learners and supporting self-regulated learning advantages not afforded by automated scores in isolation.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in multimodal understanding, yet their capabilities for scientific reasoning remains inadequately assessed. Current multimodal benchmarks predominantly evaluate generic image comprehension or text-driven reasoning, lacking authentic scientific contexts that require domain-specific knowledge integration with visual evidence analysis. To fill this gap, we present CSVQA, a diagnostic multimodal benchmark specifically designed for evaluating scientific reasoning through domain-grounded visual question answering.Our benchmark features 1,378 carefully constructed question-answer pairs spanning diverse STEM disciplines, each demanding domain knowledge, integration of visual evidence, and higher-order reasoning. Compared to prior multimodal benchmarks, CSVQA places greater emphasis on real-world scientific content and complex reasoning.We additionally propose a rigorous evaluation protocol to systematically assess whether model predictions are substantiated by valid intermediate reasoning steps based on curated explanations. Our comprehensive evaluation of 15 VLMs on this benchmark reveals notable performance disparities, as even the top-ranked proprietary model attains only 49.6\% accuracy.This empirical evidence underscores the pressing need for advancing scientific reasoning capabilities in VLMs. Our CSVQA is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Skywork/CSVQA.

AI-driven discovery can greatly reduce design time and enhance new therapeutics' effectiveness. Models using simulators explore broad design spaces but risk violating implicit constraints due to a lack of experimental priors. For example, in a new analysis we performed on a diverse set of models on the GuacaMol benchmark using supervised classifiers, over 60\% of molecules proposed had high probability of being mutagenic. In this work, we introduce \ourdataset, a dataset of priors for design problems extracted from literature describing compounds used in lab settings. It is constructed with LLM pipelines for discovering therapeutic entities in relevant paragraphs and summarizing information in concise fair-use facts. \ourdataset~ consists of 32.3 million pairs of natural language facts, and appropriate entity representations (i.e. SMILES or refseq IDs). To demonstrate the potential of the data, we train LLM, CLIP, and LLava architectures to reason jointly about text and design targets and evaluate on tasks from the Therapeutic Data Commons (TDC). \ourdataset~is highly effective for creating models with strong priors: in supervised prediction problems that use our data as pretraining, our best models with 15M learnable parameters outperform larger 2B TxGemma on both regression and classification TDC tasks, and perform comparably to 9B models on average. Models built with \ourdataset~can be used as constraints while optimizing for novel molecules in GuacaMol, resulting in proposals that are safer and nearly as effective. We release our dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/medexanon/Medex{huggingface.co/datasets/medexanon/Medex}, and will provide expanded versions as available literature grows.

Pixel-level feature attributions are an important tool in eXplainable AI for Computer Vision (XCV), providing visual insights into how image features influence model predictions. The Owen formula for hierarchical Shapley values has been widely used to interpret machine learning (ML) models and their learned representations. However, existing hierarchical Shapley approaches do not exploit the multiscale structure of image data, leading to slow convergence and weak alignment with the actual morphological features. Moreover, no prior Shapley method has leveraged data-aware hierarchies for Computer Vision tasks, leaving a gap in model interpretability of structured visual data. To address this, this paper introduces ShapBPT, a novel data-aware XCV method based on the hierarchical Shapley formula. ShapBPT assigns Shapley coefficients to a multiscale hierarchical structure tailored for images, the Binary Partition Tree (BPT). By using this data-aware hierarchical partitioning, ShapBPT ensures that feature attributions align with intrinsic image morphology, effectively prioritizing relevant regions while reducing computational overhead. This advancement connects hierarchical Shapley methods with image data, providing a more efficient and semantically meaningful approach to visual interpretability. Experimental results confirm ShapBPT's effectiveness, demonstrating superior alignment with image structures and improved efficiency over existing XCV methods, and a 20-subject user study confirming that ShapBPT explanations are preferred by humans.

Large language models (LLMs) show impressive capabilities, matching and sometimes exceeding human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment judgement in forecasting tasks. We evaluated the impact on forecasting accuracy of two GPT-4-Turbo assistants: one designed to provide high-quality advice ('superforecasting'), and the other designed to be overconfident and base-rate-neglecting. Participants (N = 991) had the option to consult their assigned LLM assistant throughout the study, in contrast to a control group that used a less advanced model (DaVinci-003) without direct forecasting support. Our preregistered analyses reveal that LLM augmentation significantly enhances forecasting accuracy by 23% across both types of assistants, compared to the control group. This improvement occurs despite the superforecasting assistant's higher accuracy in predictions, indicating the augmentation's benefit is not solely due to model prediction accuracy. Exploratory analyses showed a pronounced effect in one forecasting item, without which we find that the superforecasting assistant increased accuracy by 43%, compared with 28% for the biased assistant. We further examine whether LLM augmentation disproportionately benefits less skilled forecasters, degrades the wisdom-of-the-crowd by reducing prediction diversity, or varies in effectiveness with question difficulty. Our findings do not consistently support these hypotheses. Our results suggest that access to an LLM assistant, even a biased one, can be a helpful decision aid in cognitively demanding tasks where the answer is not known at the time of interaction.

When researchers claim AI systems possess ToM or mental models, they are fundamentally discussing behavioral predictions and bias corrections rather than genuine mental states. This position paper argues that the current discourse conflates sophisticated pattern matching with authentic cognition, missing a crucial distinction between simulation and experience. While recent studies show LLMs achieving human-level performance on ToM laboratory tasks, these results are based only on behavioral mimicry. More importantly, the entire testing paradigm may be flawed in applying individual human cognitive tests to AI systems, but assessing human cognition directly in the moment of human-AI interaction. I suggest shifting focus toward mutual ToM frameworks that acknowledge the simultaneous contributions of human cognition and AI algorithms, emphasizing the interaction dynamics, instead of testing AI in isolation.

Deep learning models have shown promise in histopathology image analysis, but their opaque decision-making process poses challenges in high-risk medical scenarios. Here we introduce HIPPO, an explainable AI method that interrogates attention-based multiple instance learning (ABMIL) models in computational pathology by generating counterfactual examples through tissue patch modifications in whole slide images. Applying HIPPO to ABMIL models trained to detect breast cancer metastasis reveals that they may overlook small tumors and can be misled by non-tumor tissue, while attention mapsx2014widely used for interpretationx2014often highlight regions that do not directly influence predictions. By interpreting ABMIL models trained on a prognostic prediction task, HIPPO identified tissue areas with stronger prognostic effects than high-attention regions, which sometimes showed counterintuitive influences on risk scores. These findings demonstrate HIPPO's capacity for comprehensive model evaluation, bias detection, and quantitative hypothesis testing. HIPPO greatly expands the capabilities of explainable AI tools to assess the trustworthy and reliable development, deployment, and regulation of weakly-supervised models in computational pathology.

The widespread use of large language models (LLMs) has sparked concerns about the potential misuse of AI-generated text, as these models can produce content that closely resembles human-generated text. Current detectors for AI-generated text (AIGT) lack robustness against adversarial perturbations, with even minor changes in characters or words causing a reversal in distinguishing between human-created and AI-generated text. This paper investigates the robustness of existing AIGT detection methods and introduces a novel detector, the Siamese Calibrated Reconstruction Network (SCRN). The SCRN employs a reconstruction network to add and remove noise from text, extracting a semantic representation that is robust to local perturbations. We also propose a siamese calibration technique to train the model to make equally confidence predictions under different noise, which improves the model's robustness against adversarial perturbations. Experiments on four publicly available datasets show that the SCRN outperforms all baseline methods, achieving 6.5\%-18.25\% absolute accuracy improvement over the best baseline method under adversarial attacks. Moreover, it exhibits superior generalizability in cross-domain, cross-genre, and mixed-source scenarios. The code is available at https://github.com/CarlanLark/Robust-AIGC-Detector.

Chest X-rays (CXRs) are among the most frequently performed imaging examinations worldwide, yet rising imaging volumes increase radiologist workload and the risk of diagnostic errors. Although artificial intelligence (AI) systems have shown promise for CXR interpretation, most generate only final predictions, without making explicit how visual evidence is translated into radiographic findings and diagnostic predictions. We present CheXOne, a reasoning-enabled vision-language model for CXR interpretation. CheXOne jointly generates diagnostic predictions and explicit, clinically grounded reasoning traces that connect visual evidence, radiographic findings, and these predictions. The model is trained on 14.7 million instruction and reasoning samples curated from 30 public datasets spanning 36 CXR interpretation tasks, using a two-stage framework that combines instruction tuning with reinforcement learning to improve reasoning quality. We evaluate CheXOne in zero-shot settings across visual question answering, report generation, visual grounding and reasoning assessment, covering 17 evaluation settings. CheXOne outperforms existing medical and general-domain foundation models and achieves strong performance on independent public benchmarks. A clinical reader study demonstrates that CheXOne-drafted reports are comparable to or better than resident-written reports in 55% of cases, while effectively addressing clinical indications and enhancing both report writing and CXR interpretation efficiency. Further analyses involving radiologists reveal that the generated reasoning traces show high clinical factuality and provide causal support for the final predictions, offering a plausible explanation for the performance gains. These results suggest that explicit reasoning can improve model performance, interpretability and clinical utility in AI-assisted CXR interpretation.

Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a 0.05^circ grid up to 7 days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWF HRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AI- and physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in learning algorithms, evaluations, and optimization tasks. Recent studies have shown that using LLM-based optimizers to automatically optimize model prompts, demonstrations, predictions themselves, or other components can significantly enhance the performance of AI systems, as demonstrated by frameworks such as DSPy and TextGrad. However, optimizers built on language models themselves are usually designed by humans with manual design choices; optimizers themselves are not optimized. Moreover, these optimizers are general purpose by design, to be useful to a broad audience, and are not tailored for specific tasks. To address these challenges, we propose metaTextGrad, which focuses on designing a meta-optimizer to further enhance existing optimizers and align them to be good optimizers for a given task. Our approach consists of two key components: a meta prompt optimizer and a meta structure optimizer. The combination of these two significantly improves performance across multiple benchmarks, achieving an average absolute performance improvement of up to 6% compared to the best baseline.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.

Sea ice is governed by highly complex, scale-invariant, and anisotropic processes that are challenging to represent in Earth system models. While advanced numerical models have improved our understanding of the sea-ice dynamics, their computational costs often limit their application in ensemble forecasting and climate simulations. Here, we introduce GenSIM, the first generative AI-based pan-Arctic model that predicts the evolution of all relevant key properties, including concentration, thickness, and drift, in a 12-hour window with improved accuracy over deterministic predictions and high computational efficiency, while remaining physically consistent. Trained on a long simulation from a state-of-the-art sea-ice--ocean system, GenSIM robustly reproduces statistics as observed in numerical models and observations, exhibiting brittle-like short-term dynamics while also depicting the long-term sea-ice decline. Driven solely by atmospheric forcings, we attribute GenSIM's emergent extrapolation capabilities to patterns that reflect the long-term impact of the ocean: it seemingly has learned an internal ocean emulator. This ability to infer slowly evolving climate-relevant dynamics from short-term predictions underlines the large potential of generative models to generalise for unseen climates and to encode hidden physics.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Elucidating quantum coherence effects and geometrical factors for efficient energy transfer in photosynthesis has the potential to uncover non-classical design principles for advanced organic materials. We study energy transfer in a linear light-harvesting model to reveal that dimerized geometries with strong electronic coherences within donor and acceptor pairs exhibit significantly improved efficiency, which is in marked contrast to predictions of the classical F\"orster theory. We reveal that energy tuning due to coherent delocalization of photoexcitations is mainly responsible for the efficiency optimization. This coherence-assisted energy-tuning mechanism also explains the energetics and chlorophyll arrangements in the widely-studied Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex. We argue that a clustered network with rapid energy relaxation among donors and resonant energy transfer from donor to acceptor states provides a basic formula for constructing efficient light-harvesting systems, and the general principles revealed here can be generalized to larger systems and benefit future innovation of efficient molecular light-harvesting materials.

Tactile feedback is critical for understanding the dynamics of both rigid and deformable objects in many manipulation tasks, such as non-prehensile manipulation and dense packing. We introduce an approach that combines visual and tactile sensing for robotic manipulation by learning a neural, tactile-informed dynamics model. Our proposed framework, RoboPack, employs a recurrent graph neural network to estimate object states, including particles and object-level latent physics information, from historical visuo-tactile observations and to perform future state predictions. Our tactile-informed dynamics model, learned from real-world data, can solve downstream robotics tasks with model-predictive control. We demonstrate our approach on a real robot equipped with a compliant Soft-Bubble tactile sensor on non-prehensile manipulation and dense packing tasks, where the robot must infer the physics properties of objects from direct and indirect interactions. Trained on only an average of 30 minutes of real-world interaction data per task, our model can perform online adaptation and make touch-informed predictions. Through extensive evaluations in both long-horizon dynamics prediction and real-world manipulation, our method demonstrates superior effectiveness compared to previous learning-based and physics-based simulation systems.

Understanding sources of a model's uncertainty regarding its predictions is crucial for effective human-AI collaboration. Prior work proposes using numerical uncertainty or hedges ("I'm not sure, but ..."), which do not explain uncertainty that arises from conflicting evidence, leaving users unable to resolve disagreements or rely on the output. We introduce CLUE (Conflict-and-Agreement-aware Language-model Uncertainty Explanations), the first framework to generate natural language explanations of model uncertainty by (i) identifying relationships between spans of text that expose claim-evidence or inter-evidence conflicts and agreements that drive the model's predictive uncertainty in an unsupervised way, and (ii) generating explanations via prompting and attention steering that verbalize these critical interactions. Across three language models and two fact-checking datasets, we show that CLUE produces explanations that are more faithful to the model's uncertainty and more consistent with fact-checking decisions than prompting for uncertainty explanations without span-interaction guidance. Human evaluators judge our explanations to be more helpful, more informative, less redundant, and more logically consistent with the input than this baseline. CLUE requires no fine-tuning or architectural changes, making it plug-and-play for any white-box language model. By explicitly linking uncertainty to evidence conflicts, it offers practical support for fact-checking and generalises readily to other tasks that require reasoning over complex information.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel physics-based schemes designed to enforce the conservation of global dry air mass, moisture budget, and total atmospheric energy in AIWP models. The schemes are highly modular, allowing for seamless integration into a wide range of AI model architectures. Forecast experiments are conducted to demonstrate the benefit of conservation schemes using FuXi, an example AIWP model, modified and adapted for 1.0-degree grid spacing. Verification results show that the conservation schemes can guide the model in producing forecasts that obey conservation laws. The forecast skills of upper-air and surface variables are also improved, with longer forecast lead times receiving larger benefits. Notably, large performance gains are found in the total precipitation forecasts, owing to the reduction of drizzle bias. The proposed conservation schemes establish a foundation for implementing other physics-based schemes in the future. They also provide a new way to integrate atmospheric domain knowledge into the design and refinement of AIWP models.

Language models have made significant progress in generating coherent text and predicting next tokens based on input prompts. This study compares the next-token prediction performance of two well-known models: OpenAI's GPT-2 and Meta's Llama-2-7b-chat-hf on Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks. To evaluate their capabilities, we built a dataset from 10 short stories sourced from the Explore ToM Dataset. We enhanced these stories by programmatically inserting additional sentences (infills) using GPT-4, creating variations that introduce different levels of contextual complexity. This setup enables analysis of how increasing context affects model performance. We tested both models under four temperature settings (0.01, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0) and evaluated their ability to predict the next token across three reasoning levels. Zero-order reasoning involves tracking the state, either current (ground truth) or past (memory). First-order reasoning concerns understanding another's mental state (e.g., "Does Anne know the apple is salted?"). Second-order reasoning adds recursion (e.g., "Does Anne think that Charles knows the apple is salted?"). Our results show that adding more infill sentences slightly reduces prediction accuracy, as added context increases complexity and ambiguity. Llama-2 consistently outperforms GPT-2 in prediction accuracy, especially at lower temperatures, demonstrating greater confidence in selecting the most probable token. As reasoning complexity rises, model responses diverge more. Notably, GPT-2 and Llama-2 display greater variability in predictions during first- and second-order reasoning tasks. These findings illustrate how model architecture, temperature, and contextual complexity influence next-token prediction, contributing to a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of current language models.

Peripheral blood smears remain a cornerstone in the diagnosis of hematological neoplasms, offering rapid and valuable insights that inform subsequent diagnostic steps. However, since neoplastic transformations typically arise in the bone marrow, they may not manifest as detectable aberrations in peripheral blood, presenting a diagnostic challenge. In this paper, we introduce cAItomorph, an explainable transformer-based AI model, trained to classify hematological malignancies based on peripheral blood cytomorphology. Our data comprises peripheral blood single-cell images from 6115 patients with diagnoses confirmed by cytomorphology, cytogenetics, molecular genetics, and immunophenotyping from bone marrow samples, and 495 healthy controls, eight coarse classes. cAItomorph leverages the DinoBloom hematology foundation model and aggregates image encodings via a transformer-based architecture into a single vector. It achieves an overall accuracy of 0.72 in eight disease classification, with F1 scores of 0.76 for acute leukemia, 0.80 for myeloproliferative neoplasms and 0.94 for healthy cases. The overall accuracy increases to 0.87 in top-2 predictions. cAItomorph achieves high sensitivity for acute leukemia cases in external test sets. By analyzing attention heads, we demonstrate clinically relevant cell-level attentions in both internal and external test sets. Moreover, our model's calibrated prediction probabilities reduce the false discovery rate from 13.5% to 8.7% without missing any acute leukemia cases, thereby decreasing the number of unnecessary bone marrow aspirations based on peripheral blood smears. This study highlights the potential of AI-assisted diagnostics in hematological malignancies, illustrating how models trained on real-world data could enhance diagnostic accuracy and reduce invasive procedures.

Methane (CH_4) is the second most powerful greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and plays a crucial role in climate change due to its high global warming potential. Accurately modeling CH_4 fluxes across the globe and at fine temporal scales is essential for understanding its spatial and temporal variability and developing effective mitigation strategies. In this work, we introduce the first-of-its-kind cross-scale global wetland methane benchmark dataset (X-MethaneWet), which synthesizes physics-based model simulation data from TEM-MDM and the real-world observation data from FLUXNET-CH_4. This dataset can offer opportunities for improving global wetland CH_4 modeling and science discovery with new AI algorithms. To set up AI model baselines for methane flux prediction, we evaluate the performance of various sequential deep learning models on X-MethaneWet. Furthermore, we explore four different transfer learning techniques to leverage simulated data from TEM-MDM to improve the generalization of deep learning models on real-world FLUXNET-CH_4 observations. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches, highlighting their potential for advancing methane emission modeling and contributing to the development of more accurate and scalable AI-driven climate models.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

As a lightweight and non-invasive imaging technique, lung ultrasound (LUS) has gained importance for assessing lung pathologies. The use of Artificial intelligence (AI) in medical decision support systems is promising due to the time- and expertise-intensive interpretation, however, due to the poor quality of existing data used for training AI models, their usability for real-world applications remains unclear. In a prospective study, we analyze data from 63 COVID-19 suspects (33 positive) collected at Maastricht University Medical Centre. Ultrasound recordings at six body locations were acquired following the BLUE protocol and manually labeled for severity of lung involvement. Several AI models were applied and trained for detection and severity of pulmonary infection. The severity of the lung infection, as assigned by human annotators based on the LUS videos, is not significantly different between COVID-19 positive and negative patients (p = 0.89). Nevertheless, the predictions of image-based AI models identify a COVID-19 infection with 65% accuracy when applied zero-shot (i.e., trained on other datasets), and up to 79% with targeted training, whereas the accuracy based on human annotations is at most 65%. Multi-modal models combining images and CBC improve significantly over image-only models. Although our analysis generally supports the value of AI in LUS assessment, the evaluated models fall short of the performance expected from previous work. We find this is due to 1) the heterogeneity of LUS datasets, limiting the generalization ability to new data, 2) the frame-based processing of AI models ignoring video-level information, and 3) lack of work on multi-modal models that can extract the most relevant information from video-, image- and variable-based inputs. To aid future research, we publish the dataset at: https://github.com/NinaWie/COVID-BLUES.

Lung cancer is responsible for 21% of cancer deaths in the UK and five-year survival rates are heavily influenced by the stage the cancer was identified at. Recent studies have demonstrated the capability of AI methods for accurate and early diagnosis of lung cancer from routine scans. However, this evidence has not translated into clinical practice with one barrier being a lack of interpretable models. This study investigates the application Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), a type of generative AI model, to lung cancer lesions. Proposed models were trained on lesions extracted from 3D CT scans in the LIDC-IDRI public dataset. Latent vector representations of 2D slices produced by the VAEs were explored through clustering to justify their quality and used in an MLP classifier model for lung cancer diagnosis, the best model achieved state-of-the-art metrics of AUC 0.98 and 93.1% accuracy. Cluster analysis shows the VAE latent space separates the dataset of malignant and benign lesions based on meaningful feature components including tumour size, shape, patient and malignancy class. We also include a comparative analysis of the standard Gaussian VAE (GVAE) and the more recent Dirichlet VAE (DirVAE), which replaces the prior with a Dirichlet distribution to encourage a more explainable latent space with disentangled feature representation. Finally, we demonstrate the potential for latent space traversals corresponding to clinically meaningful feature changes.

Semantic Segmentation is a significant research field in Computer Vision. Despite being a widely studied subject area, many visualization tools do not exist that capture segmentation quality and dataset statistics such as a class imbalance in the same view. While the significance of discovering and introspecting the correlation between dataset statistics and AI model performance for dense prediction computer vision tasks such as semantic segmentation is well established in the computer vision literature, to the best of our knowledge, no visualization tools have been proposed to view and analyze the aforementioned tasks. Our project aims to bridge this gap by proposing three visualizations that enable users to compare dataset statistics and AI performance for segmenting all images, a single image in the dataset, explore the AI model's attention on image regions once trained and browse the quality of masks predicted by AI for any selected (by user) number of objects under the same tool. Our project tries to further increase the interpretability of the trained AI model for segmentation by visualizing its image attention weights. For visualization, we use Scatterplot and Heatmap to encode correlation and features, respectively. We further propose to conduct surveys on real users to study the efficacy of our visualization tool in computer vision and AI domain. The full system can be accessed at https://github.com/dipta007/SeeBel

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

This study explores the effectiveness of predictive maintenance models and the optimization of intelligent Operation and Maintenance (O&M) systems in improving wind power generation efficiency. Through qualitative research, structured interviews were conducted with five wind farm engineers and maintenance managers, each with extensive experience in turbine operations. Using thematic analysis, the study revealed that while predictive maintenance models effectively reduce downtime by identifying major faults, they often struggle with detecting smaller, gradual failures. Key challenges identified include false positives, sensor malfunctions, and difficulties in integrating new models with older turbine systems. Advanced technologies such as digital twins, SCADA systems, and condition monitoring have significantly enhanced turbine maintenance practices. However, these technologies still require improvements, particularly in AI refinement and real-time data integration. The findings emphasize the need for continuous development to fully optimize wind turbine performance and support the broader adoption of renewable energy.

Bank credit risk is a significant challenge in modern financial transactions, and the ability to identify qualified credit card holders among a large number of applicants is crucial for the profitability of a bank'sbank's credit card business. In the past, screening applicants'applicants' conditions often required a significant amount of manual labor, which was time-consuming and labor-intensive. Although the accuracy and reliability of previously used ML models have been continuously improving, the pursuit of more reliable and powerful AI intelligent models is undoubtedly the unremitting pursuit by major banks in the financial industry. In this study, we used a dataset of over 40,000 records provided by a commercial bank as the research object. We compared various dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA and T-SNE for preprocessing high-dimensional datasets and performed in-depth adaptation and tuning of distributed models such as LightGBM and XGBoost, as well as deep models like Tabnet. After a series of research and processing, we obtained excellent research results by combining SMOTEENN with these techniques. The experiments demonstrated that LightGBM combined with PCA and SMOTEENN techniques can assist banks in accurately predicting potential high-quality customers, showing relatively outstanding performance compared to other models.

Competitive sports require sophisticated tactical analysis, yet combat disciplines like boxing remain underdeveloped in AI-driven analytics due to the complexity of action dynamics and the lack of structured tactical representations. To address this, we present BoxMind, a closed-loop AI expert system validated in elite boxing competition. By defining atomic punch events with precise temporal boundaries and spatial and technical attributes, we parse match footage into 18 hierarchical technical-tactical indicators. We then propose a graph-based predictive model that fuses these explicit technical-tactical profiles with learnable, time-variant latent embeddings to capture the dynamics of boxer matchups. Modeling match outcome as a differentiable function of technical-tactical indicators, we turn winning probability gradients into executable tactical adjustments. Experiments show that the outcome prediction model achieves state-of-the-art performance, with 69.8% accuracy on BoxerGraph test set and 87.5% on Olympic matches. Using this predictive model as a foundation, the system generates strategic recommendations that demonstrate proficiency comparable to human experts. BoxMind is validated through a closed-loop deployment during the 2024 Paris Olympics, directly contributing to the Chinese National Team's historic achievement of three gold and two silver medals. BoxMind establishes a replicable paradigm for transforming unstructured video data into strategic intelligence, bridging the gap between computer vision and decision support in competitive sports.

Learning from human feedback has enabled the alignment of language models (LMs) with human preferences. However, directly collecting human preferences can be expensive, time-consuming, and can have high variance. An appealing alternative is to distill preferences from LMs as a source of synthetic annotations as they are more consistent, cheaper, and scale better than human annotation; however, they are also prone to biases and errors. In this work, we introduce a routing framework that combines inputs from humans and LMs to achieve better annotation quality, while reducing the total cost of human annotation. The crux of our approach is to identify preference instances that will benefit from human annotations. We formulate this as an optimization problem: given a preference dataset and an evaluation metric, we train a performance prediction model to predict a reward model's performance on an arbitrary combination of human and LM annotations and employ a routing strategy that selects a combination that maximizes predicted performance. We train the performance prediction model on MultiPref, a new preference dataset with 10K instances paired with human and LM labels. We show that the selected hybrid mixture of LM and direct human preferences using our routing framework achieves better reward model performance compared to using either one exclusively. We simulate selective human preference collection on three other datasets and show that our method generalizes well to all three. We analyze features from the routing model to identify characteristics of instances that can benefit from human feedback, e.g., prompts with a moderate safety concern or moderate intent complexity. We release the dataset, annotation platform, and source code used in this study to foster more efficient and accurate preference collection in the future.

Assessing the novelty of patent claims is a critical yet challenging task traditionally performed by patent examiners. While advancements in NLP have enabled progress in various patent-related tasks, novelty assessment remains unexplored. This paper introduces a novel challenge by evaluating the ability of large language models (LLMs) to assess patent novelty by comparing claims with cited prior art documents, following the process similar to that of patent examiners done. We present the first dataset specifically designed for novelty evaluation, derived from real patent examination cases, and analyze the capabilities of LLMs to address this task. Our study reveals that while classification models struggle to effectively assess novelty, generative models make predictions with a reasonable level of accuracy, and their explanations are accurate enough to understand the relationship between the target patent and prior art. These findings demonstrate the potential of LLMs to assist in patent evaluation, reducing the workload for both examiners and applicants. Our contributions highlight the limitations of current models and provide a foundation for improving AI-driven patent analysis through advanced models and refined datasets.

Scripting interfaces enable users to automate tasks and customize software workflows, but creating scripts traditionally requires programming expertise and familiarity with specific APIs, posing barriers for many users. While Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate code from natural language queries, runtime code generation is severely limited due to unverified code, security risks, longer response times, and higher computational costs. To bridge the gap, we propose an offline simulation framework to curate a software-specific skillset, a collection of verified scripts, by exploiting LLMs and publicly available scripting guides. Our framework comprises two components: (1) task creation, using top-down functionality guidance and bottom-up API synergy exploration to generate helpful tasks; and (2) skill generation with trials, refining and validating scripts based on execution feedback. To efficiently navigate the extensive API landscape, we introduce a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based link prediction model to capture API synergy, enabling the generation of skills involving underutilized APIs and expanding the skillset's diversity. Experiments with Adobe Illustrator demonstrate that our framework significantly improves automation success rates, reduces response time, and saves runtime token costs compared to traditional runtime code generation. This is the first attempt to use software scripting interfaces as a testbed for LLM-based systems, highlighting the advantages of leveraging execution feedback in a controlled environment and offering valuable insights into aligning AI capabilities with user needs in specialized software domains.

Explainable AI (XAI) is the study on how humans can be able to understand the cause of a model's prediction. In this work, the problem of interest is Scene Text Recognition (STR) Explainability, using XAI to understand the cause of an STR model's prediction. Recent XAI literatures on STR only provide a simple analysis and do not fully explore other XAI methods. In this study, we specifically work on data explainability frameworks, called attribution-based methods, that explain the important parts of an input data in deep learning models. However, integrating them into STR produces inconsistent and ineffective explanations, because they only explain the model in the global context. To solve this problem, we propose a new method, STRExp, to take into consideration the local explanations, i.e. the individual character prediction explanations. This is then benchmarked across different attribution-based methods on different STR datasets and evaluated across different STR models.

It stands to reason that the amount and the quality of data is of key importance for setting up accurate AI-driven models. Among others, a fundamental aspect to consider is the bias introduced during sample selection in database generation. This is particularly relevant when a model is trained on a specialized dataset to predict a property of interest, and then applied to forecast the same property over samples having a completely different genesis. Indeed, the resulting biased model will likely produce unreliable predictions for many of those out-of-the-box samples. Neglecting such an aspect may hinder the AI-based discovery process, even when high quality, sufficiently large and highly reputable data sources are available. In this regard, with superconducting and thermoelectric materials as two prototypical case studies in the field of energy material discovery, we present and validate a new method (based on a classification strategy) capable of detecting, quantifying and circumventing the presence of cross-domain data bias.

Explainability is one of the key elements for building trust in AI systems. Among numerous attempts to make AI explainable, quantifying the effect of explanations remains a challenge in conducting human-AI collaborative tasks. Aside from the ability to predict the overall behavior of AI, in many applications, users need to understand an AI agent's competency in different aspects of the task domain. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of explanations on the user's mental model of AI agent competency within the task of visual question answering (VQA). We quantify users' understanding of competency, based on the correlation between the actual system performance and user rankings. We introduce an explainable VQA system that uses spatial and object features and is powered by the BERT language model. Each group of users sees only one kind of explanation to rank the competencies of the VQA model. The proposed model is evaluated through between-subject experiments to probe explanations' impact on the user's perception of competency. The comparison between two VQA models shows BERT based explanations and the use of object features improve the user's prediction of the model's competencies.

Speech bandwidth extension (BWE) refers to widening the frequency bandwidth range of speech signals, enhancing the speech quality towards brighter and fuller. This paper proposes a generative adversarial network (GAN) based BWE model with parallel prediction of Amplitude and Phase spectra, named AP-BWE, which achieves both high-quality and efficient wideband speech waveform generation. The proposed AP-BWE generator is entirely based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs). It features a dual-stream architecture with mutual interaction, where the amplitude stream and the phase stream communicate with each other and respectively extend the high-frequency components from the input narrowband amplitude and phase spectra. To improve the naturalness of the extended speech signals, we employ a multi-period discriminator at the waveform level and design a pair of multi-resolution amplitude and phase discriminators at the spectral level, respectively. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed AP-BWE achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of speech quality for BWE tasks targeting sampling rates of both 16 kHz and 48 kHz. In terms of generation efficiency, due to the all-convolutional architecture and all-frame-level operations, the proposed AP-BWE can generate 48 kHz waveform samples 292.3 times faster than real-time on a single RTX 4090 GPU and 18.1 times faster than real-time on a single CPU. Notably, to our knowledge, AP-BWE is the first to achieve the direct extension of the high-frequency phase spectrum, which is beneficial for improving the effectiveness of existing BWE methods.

As the artificial intelligence (AI) supply chain grows more complex, AI systems and models are increasingly likely to incorporate externally-sourced ingredients such as datasets and other models. In such cases, determining whether or not an AI system or model complies with the EU AI Act will require gathering compliance-related metadata about both the AI system or model at-large as well as those externally-supplied ingredients. There must then be an analysis that looks across all of this metadata to render a prediction about the compliance of the overall AI system or model. Up until now, this process has not been automated. Thus, it has not been possible to make real-time compliance determinations in scenarios where doing so would be advantageous, such as the iterative workflows of today's AI developers, search and acquisition of AI ingredients on communities like Hugging Face, federated and continuous learning, and more. To address this shortcoming, we introduce a highly automated system for AI Act compliance analysis. This system has two key elements. First is an interlocking set of computational artifacts that capture compliance-related metadata about both: (1) the AI system or model at-large; (2) any constituent ingredients such as datasets and models. Second is an automated analysis algorithm that operates across those computational artifacts to render a run-time prediction about whether or not the overall AI system or model complies with the AI Act. Working together, these elements promise to enhance and accelerate AI Act compliance assessments.

Lung cancer patients frequently experience breakthrough pain episodes, with up to 91% requiring timely intervention. To enable proactive pain management, we propose a hybrid machine learning and large language model pipeline that predicts pain episodes within 48 and 72 hours of hospitalization using both structured and unstructured electronic health record data. A retrospective cohort of 266 inpatients was analyzed, with features including demographics, tumor stage, vital signs, and WHO-tiered analgesic use. The machine learning module captured temporal medication trends, while the large language model interpreted ambiguous dosing records and free-text clinical notes. Integrating these modalities improved sensitivity and interpretability. Our framework achieved an accuracy of 0.874 (48h) and 0.917 (72h), with an improvement in sensitivity of 8.6% and 10.4% due to the augmentation of large language model. This hybrid approach offers a clinically interpretable and scalable tool for early pain episode forecasting, with potential to enhance treatment precision and optimize resource allocation in oncology care.

As autonomous AI agents transition from code completion tools to full-fledged teammates capable of opening pull requests (PRs) at scale, software maintainers face a new challenge: not just reviewing code, but managing complex interaction loops with non-human contributors. This paradigm shift raises a critical question: can we predict which agent-generated PRs will consume excessive review effort before any human interaction begins? Analyzing 33,707 agent-authored PRs from the AIDev dataset across 2,807 repositories, we uncover a striking two-regime behavioral pattern that fundamentally distinguishes autonomous agents from human developers. The first regime, representing 28.3 percent of all PRs, consists of instant merges (less than 1 minute), reflecting success on narrow automation tasks. The second regime involves iterative review cycles where agents frequently stall or abandon refinement (ghosting). We propose a Circuit Breaker triage model that predicts high-review-effort PRs (top 20 percent) at creation time using only static structural features. A LightGBM model achieves AUC 0.957 on a temporal split, while semantic text features (TF-IDF, CodeBERT) provide negligible predictive value. At a 20 percent review budget, the model intercepts 69 percent of total review effort, enabling zero-latency governance. Our findings challenge prevailing assumptions in AI-assisted code review: review burden is dictated by what agents touch, not what they say, highlighting the need for structural governance mechanisms in human-AI collaboration.

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showing efficiency during volatile periods. The methodology was implemented on the QuantConnect platform, which was chosen for its robust framework and experimental reproducibility. The system, which predicts future price movements, includes a three-year warm-up to ensure proper algorithm function. It targets highly liquid, large-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also considering broker payments. The dual-model alpha system utilizes log returns to select the optimal state based on the historical performance. It combines state predictions with neural network outputs, which are based on historical data, to generate trading signals. This study examined the architecture of the trading system, data pre-processing, training, and performance. The full code and backtesting data are available under the QuantConnect terms.

PURPOSE: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) entails high morbidity and mortality rates. Convolutional neural networks (CNN), a form of deep learning, are capable of generating highly accurate predictions from imaging data. Our objective was to predict mortality in SAH patients by processing the initial CT scan on a CNN based algorithm. METHODS: Retrospective multicentric study of a consecutive cohort of patients with SAH between 2011-2022. Demographic, clinical and radiological variables were analyzed. Pre-processed baseline CT scan images were used as the input for training a CNN using AUCMEDI Framework. Our model's architecture leverages the DenseNet-121 structure, employing transfer learning principles. The output variable was mortality in the first three months. Performance of the model was evaluated by statistical parameters conventionally used in studies involving artificial intelligence methods. RESULTS: Images from 219 patients were processed, 175 for training and validation of the CNN and 44 for its evaluation. 52%(115/219) of patients were female, and the median age was 58(SD=13.06) years. 18.5%(39/219) were idiopathic SAH. Mortality rate was 28.5%(63/219). The model showed good accuracy at predicting mortality in SAH patients exclusively using the images of the initial CT scan (Accuracy=74%, F1=75% and AUC=82%). CONCLUSION: Modern image processing techniques based on AI and CNN make possible to predict mortality in SAH patients with high accuracy using CT scan images as the only input. These models might be optimized by including more data and patients resulting in better training, development and performance on tasks which are beyond the skills of conventional clinical knowledge.

Disease risk prediction has attracted increasing attention in the field of modern healthcare, especially with the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Electronic health records (EHRs), which contain heterogeneous patient information, are widely used in disease risk prediction tasks. One challenge of applying AI models for risk prediction lies in generating interpretable evidence to support the prediction results while retaining the prediction ability. In order to address this problem, we propose the method of jointly embedding words and labels whereby attention modules learn the weights of words from medical notes according to their relevance to the names of risk prediction labels. This approach boosts interpretability by employing an attention mechanism and including the names of prediction tasks in the model. However, its application is only limited to the handling of textual inputs such as medical notes. In this paper, we propose a label dependent attention model LDAM to 1) improve the interpretability by exploiting Clinical-BERT (a biomedical language model pre-trained on a large clinical corpus) to encode biomedically meaningful features and labels jointly; 2) extend the idea of joint embedding to the processing of time-series data, and develop a multi-modal learning framework for integrating heterogeneous information from medical notes and time-series health status indicators. To demonstrate our method, we apply LDAM to the MIMIC-III dataset to predict different disease risks. We evaluate our method both quantitatively and qualitatively. Specifically, the predictive power of LDAM will be shown, and case studies will be carried out to illustrate its interpretability.

Despite the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) remain the gold-standard formalism for modeling systems under uncertainty. However, applying SDEs in practice is fraught with challenges: modeling risk is high, calibration is often brittle, and high-fidelity simulations are computationally expensive. This technical report introduces JointFM, a foundation model that inverts this paradigm. Instead of fitting SDEs to data, we sample an infinite stream of synthetic SDEs to train a generic model to predict future joint probability distributions directly. This approach establishes JointFM as the first foundation model for distributional predictions of coupled time series - requiring no task-specific calibration or finetuning. Despite operating in a purely zero-shot setting, JointFM reduces the energy loss by 14.2% relative to the strongest baseline when recovering oracle joint distributions generated by unseen synthetic SDEs.

Precise crop yield predictions are of national importance for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural practices. While AI-for-science approaches have exhibited promising achievements in solving many scientific problems such as drug discovery, precipitation nowcasting, etc., the development of deep learning models for predicting crop yields is constantly hindered by the lack of an open and large-scale deep learning-ready dataset with multiple modalities to accommodate sufficient information. To remedy this, we introduce the CropNet dataset, the first terabyte-sized, publicly available, and multi-modal dataset specifically targeting climate change-aware crop yield predictions for the contiguous United States (U.S.) continent at the county level. Our CropNet dataset is composed of three modalities of data, i.e., Sentinel-2 Imagery, WRF-HRRR Computed Dataset, and USDA Crop Dataset, for over 2200 U.S. counties spanning 6 years (2017-2022), expected to facilitate researchers in developing versatile deep learning models for timely and precisely predicting crop yields at the county-level, by accounting for the effects of both short-term growing season weather variations and long-term climate change on crop yields. Besides, we develop the CropNet package, offering three types of APIs, for facilitating researchers in downloading the CropNet data on the fly over the time and region of interest, and flexibly building their deep learning models for accurate crop yield predictions. Extensive experiments have been conducted on our CropNet dataset via employing various types of deep learning solutions, with the results validating the general applicability and the efficacy of the CropNet dataset in climate change-aware crop yield predictions.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities in healthcare for improved patient care, clinical decision-making, and enhancement of physician and administrator workflows. However, the potential of these models importantly depends on their ability to generalize effectively across clinical environments and populations, a challenge often underestimated in early development. To better understand reasons for these challenges and inform mitigation approaches, we evaluated ClinicLLM, an LLM trained on [HOSPITAL]'s clinical notes, analyzing its performance on 30-day all-cause readmission prediction focusing on variability across hospitals and patient characteristics. We found poorer generalization particularly in hospitals with fewer samples, among patients with government and unspecified insurance, the elderly, and those with high comorbidities. To understand reasons for lack of generalization, we investigated sample sizes for fine-tuning, note content (number of words per note), patient characteristics (comorbidity level, age, insurance type, borough), and health system aspects (hospital, all-cause 30-day readmission, and mortality rates). We used descriptive statistics and supervised classification to identify features. We found that, along with sample size, patient age, number of comorbidities, and the number of words in notes are all important factors related to generalization. Finally, we compared local fine-tuning (hospital specific), instance-based augmented fine-tuning and cluster-based fine-tuning for improving generalization. Among these, local fine-tuning proved most effective, increasing AUC by 0.25% to 11.74% (most helpful in settings with limited data). Overall, this study provides new insights for enhancing the deployment of large language models in the societally important domain of healthcare, and improving their performance for broader populations.

Embodied Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an intelligent system paradigm for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), serving as the cornerstone for various applications and driving the evolution from cyberspace to physical systems. Recent breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs) and World Models (WMs) have drawn significant attention for embodied AI. On the one hand, LLMs empower embodied AI via semantic reasoning and task decomposition, bringing high-level natural language instructions and low-level natural language actions into embodied cognition. On the other hand, WMs empower embodied AI by building internal representations and future predictions of the external world, facilitating physical law-compliant embodied interactions. As such, this paper comprehensively explores the literature in embodied AI from basics to advances, covering both LLM driven and WM driven works. In particular, we first present the history, key technologies, key components, and hardware systems of embodied AI, as well as discuss its development via looking from unimodal to multimodal angle. We then scrutinize the two burgeoning fields of embodied AI, i.e., embodied AI with LLMs/multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) and embodied AI with WMs, meticulously delineating their indispensable roles in end-to-end embodied cognition and physical laws-driven embodied interactions. Building upon the above advances, we further share our insights on the necessity of the joint MLLM-WM driven embodied AI architecture, shedding light on its profound significance in enabling complex tasks within physical worlds. In addition, we examine representative applications of embodied AI, demonstrating its wide applicability in real-world scenarios. Last but not least, we point out future research directions of embodied AI that deserve further investigation.

The Quantum-Inspired Stacked Integrated Concept Graph Model (QISICGM) is an innovative machine learning framework that harnesses quantum-inspired techniques to predict diabetes risk with exceptional accuracy and efficiency. Utilizing the PIMA Indians Diabetes dataset augmented with 2,000 synthetic samples to mitigate class imbalance (total: 2,768 samples, 1,949 positives), QISICGM integrates a self-improving concept graph with a stacked ensemble comprising Random Forests (RF), Extra Trees (ET), transformers, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs). This approach achieves an out-of-fold (OOF) F1 score of 0.8933 and an AUC of 0.8699, outperforming traditional methods. Quantum inspired elements, such as phase feature mapping and neighborhood sequence modeling, enrich feature representations, enabling CPU-efficient inference at 8.5 rows per second. This paper presents a detailed architecture, theoretical foundations, code insights, and performance evaluations, including visualizations from the outputs subfolder. The open-source implementation (v1.0.0) is available at https://github.com/keninayoung/QISICGM, positioning QISICGM as a potential benchmark for AI-assisted clinical triage in diabetes and beyond. Ultimately, this work emphasizes trustworthy AI through calibration, interpretability, and open-source reproducibility.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in legal judgment prediction (LJP) has the potential to transform the legal landscape, particularly in jurisdictions like India, where a significant backlog of cases burdens the legal system. This paper introduces NyayaAnumana, the largest and most diverse corpus of Indian legal cases compiled for LJP, encompassing a total of 7,02,945 preprocessed cases. NyayaAnumana, which combines the words "Nyay" (judgment) and "Anuman" (prediction or inference) respectively for most major Indian languages, includes a wide range of cases from the Supreme Court, High Courts, Tribunal Courts, District Courts, and Daily Orders and, thus, provides unparalleled diversity and coverage. Our dataset surpasses existing datasets like PredEx and ILDC, offering a comprehensive foundation for advanced AI research in the legal domain. In addition to the dataset, we present INLegalLlama, a domain-specific generative large language model (LLM) tailored to the intricacies of the Indian legal system. It is developed through a two-phase training approach over a base LLaMa model. First, Indian legal documents are injected using continual pretraining. Second, task-specific supervised finetuning is done. This method allows the model to achieve a deeper understanding of legal contexts. Our experiments demonstrate that incorporating diverse court data significantly boosts model accuracy, achieving approximately 90% F1-score in prediction tasks. INLegalLlama not only improves prediction accuracy but also offers comprehensible explanations, addressing the need for explainability in AI-assisted legal decisions.

Recently video generation has achieved substantial progress with realistic results. Nevertheless, existing AI-generated videos are usually very short clips ("shot-level") depicting a single scene. To deliver a coherent long video ("story-level"), it is desirable to have creative transition and prediction effects across different clips. This paper presents a short-to-long video diffusion model, SEINE, that focuses on generative transition and prediction. The goal is to generate high-quality long videos with smooth and creative transitions between scenes and varying lengths of shot-level videos. Specifically, we propose a random-mask video diffusion model to automatically generate transitions based on textual descriptions. By providing the images of different scenes as inputs, combined with text-based control, our model generates transition videos that ensure coherence and visual quality. Furthermore, the model can be readily extended to various tasks such as image-to-video animation and autoregressive video prediction. To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of this new generative task, we propose three assessing criteria for smooth and creative transition: temporal consistency, semantic similarity, and video-text semantic alignment. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach over existing methods for generative transition and prediction, enabling the creation of story-level long videos. Project page: https://vchitect.github.io/SEINE-project/ .

This study explores the potential of utilizing administrative claims data, combined with advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques, to predict the progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). We analyze a comprehensive, 10-year dataset provided by a major health insurance organization to develop prediction models for multiple observation windows using traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost as well as deep learning approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our findings demonstrate that the LSTM model, particularly with a 24-month observation window, exhibits superior performance in predicting ESRD progression, outperforming existing models in the literature. We further apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to enhance interpretability, providing insights into the impact of individual features on predictions at the individual patient level. This study underscores the value of leveraging administrative claims data for CKD management and predicting ESRD progression.

Import container dwell time (ICDT) prediction is a key task for improving productivity in container terminals, as accurate predictions enable the reduction of container re-handling operations by yard cranes. Achieving this objective requires accurately predicting the dwell time of individual containers. However, the primary determinants of dwell time-owner information and cargo information-are recorded as unstructured text, which limits their effective use in machine learning models. This study addresses this limitation by proposing a collaborative framework that integrates generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) with machine learning. The proposed framework employs Gen AI to standardize unstructured information into standard international codes, with dynamic re-prediction triggered by electronic data interchange state updates, enabling the machine learning model to predict ICDT accurately. Extensive experiments conducted on real container terminal data demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a 13.88% improvement in mean absolute error compared to conventional models that do not utilize standardized information. Furthermore, applying the improved predictions to container stacking strategies achieves up to 14.68% reduction in the number of relocations, thereby empirically validating the potential of Gen AI to enhance productivity in container terminal operations. Overall, this study provides both technical and methodological insights into the adoption of Gen AI in port logistics and its effectiveness.

General large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have shown remarkable success, but it has also raised concerns among people about the misuse of AI-generated texts. Therefore, an important question is how to detect whether the texts are generated by ChatGPT or by humans. Existing detectors are built on the assumption that there is a distribution gap between human-generated and AI-generated texts. These gaps are typically identified using statistical information or classifiers. In contrast to prior research methods, we find that large language models such as ChatGPT exhibit strong self-consistency in text generation and continuation. Self-consistency capitalizes on the intuition that AI-generated texts can still be reasoned with by large language models using the same logical reasoning when portions of the texts are masked, which differs from human-generated texts. Using this observation, we subsequently proposed a new method for AI-generated texts detection based on self-consistency with masked predictions to determine whether a text is generated by LLMs. This method, which we call DetectGPT-SC. We conducted a series of experiments to evaluate the performance of DetectGPT-SC. In these experiments, we employed various mask scheme, zero-shot, and simple prompt for completing masked texts and self-consistency predictions. The results indicate that DetectGPT-SC outperforms the current state-of-the-art across different tasks.

Drug discovery is a complex and resource-intensive process, making early prediction of approval outcomes critical for optimizing research investments. While classical machine learning and deep learning methods have shown promise in drug approval prediction, their limited interpretability constraints their impact. Here, we present DrugReasoner, a reasoning-based large language model (LLM) built on the LLaMA architecture and fine-tuned with group relative policy optimization (GRPO) to predict the likelihood of small-molecule approval. DrugReasoner integrates molecular descriptors with comparative reasoning against structurally similar approved and unapproved compounds, generating predictions alongside step-by-step rationales and confidence scores. DrugReasoner achieved robust performance with an AUC of 0.732 and an F1 score of 0.729 on the validation set and 0.725 and 0.718 on the test set, respectively. These results outperformed conventional baselines, including logistic regression, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors and had competitive performance relative to XGBoost. On an external independent dataset, DrugReasoner outperformed both baseline and the recently developed ChemAP model, achieving an AUC of 0.728 and an F1-score of 0.774, while maintaining high precision and balanced sensitivity, demonstrating robustness in real-world scenarios. These findings demonstrate that DrugReasoner not only delivers competitive predictive accuracy but also enhances transparency through its reasoning outputs, thereby addressing a key bottleneck in AI-assisted drug discovery. This study highlights the potential of reasoning-augmented LLMs as interpretable and effective tools for pharmaceutical decision-making.

Scientific research faces high costs and inefficiencies with traditional methods, but the rise of deep learning and large language models (LLMs) offers innovative solutions. This survey reviews LLM applications across scientific fields such as biology, medicine, chemistry, and meteorology, underscoring their role in advancing research. However, the continuous expansion of model size has led to significant memory demands, hindering further development and application of LLMs for science. To address this, we review memory-efficient training techniques for LLMs based on the transformer architecture, including distributed training, mixed precision training, and gradient checkpointing. Using AlphaFold 2 as an example, we demonstrate how tailored memory optimization methods can reduce storage needs while preserving prediction accuracy. We also discuss the challenges of memory optimization in practice and potential future directions, hoping to provide valuable insights for researchers and engineers.

Accurate estimation of item (question or task) difficulty is critical for educational assessment but suffers from the cold start problem. While Large Language Models demonstrate superhuman problem-solving capabilities, it remains an open question whether they can perceive the cognitive struggles of human learners. In this work, we present a large-scale empirical analysis of Human-AI Difficulty Alignment for over 20 models across diverse domains such as medical knowledge and mathematical reasoning. Our findings reveal a systematic misalignment where scaling up model size is not reliably helpful; instead of aligning with humans, models converge toward a shared machine consensus. We observe that high performance often impedes accurate difficulty estimation, as models struggle to simulate the capability limitations of students even when being explicitly prompted to adopt specific proficiency levels. Furthermore, we identify a critical lack of introspection, as models fail to predict their own limitations. These results suggest that general problem-solving capability does not imply an understanding of human cognitive struggles, highlighting the challenge of using current models for automated difficulty prediction.

Interrogating the evolution of biological changes at early stages of life requires longitudinal profiling of molecules, such as DNA methylation, which can be challenging with children. We introduce a probabilistic and longitudinal machine learning framework based on multi-mean Gaussian processes (GPs), accounting for individual and gene correlations across time. This method provides future predictions of DNA methylation status at different individual ages while accounting for uncertainty. Our model is trained on a birth cohort of children with methylation profiled at ages 0-4, and we demonstrated that the status of methylation sites for each child can be accurately predicted at ages 5-7. We show that methylation profiles predicted by multi-mean GPs can be used to estimate other phenotypes, such as epigenetic age, and enable comparison to other health measures of interest. This approach encourages epigenetic studies to move towards longitudinal design for investigating epigenetic changes during development, ageing and disease progression.

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is the standard paradigm for domain adaptation, yet it frequently incurs the cost of catastrophic forgetting. In sharp contrast, on-policy Reinforcement Learning (RL) effectively preserves general capabilities. We investigate this discrepancy and identify a fundamental distributional gap: while RL aligns with the model's internal belief, SFT forces the model to fit external supervision. This mismatch often manifests as "Confident Conflicts" tokens characterized by low probability but low entropy. In these instances, the model is highly confident in its own prediction but is forced to learn a divergent ground truth, triggering destructive gradient updates. To address this, we propose Entropy-Adaptive Fine-Tuning (EAFT). Unlike methods relying solely on prediction probability, EAFT utilizes token-level entropy as a gating mechanism to distinguish between epistemic uncertainty and knowledge conflict. This allows the model to learn from uncertain samples while suppressing gradients on conflicting data. Extensive experiments on Qwen and GLM series (ranging from 4B to 32B parameters) across mathematical, medical, and agentic domains confirm our hypothesis. EAFT consistently matches the downstream performance of standard SFT while significantly mitigating the degradation of general capabilities.

Here, we present the outcomes from the second Large Language Model (LLM) Hackathon for Applications in Materials Science and Chemistry, which engaged participants across global hybrid locations, resulting in 34 team submissions. The submissions spanned seven key application areas and demonstrated the diverse utility of LLMs for applications in (1) molecular and material property prediction; (2) molecular and material design; (3) automation and novel interfaces; (4) scientific communication and education; (5) research data management and automation; (6) hypothesis generation and evaluation; and (7) knowledge extraction and reasoning from scientific literature. Each team submission is presented in a summary table with links to the code and as brief papers in the appendix. Beyond team results, we discuss the hackathon event and its hybrid format, which included physical hubs in Toronto, Montreal, San Francisco, Berlin, Lausanne, and Tokyo, alongside a global online hub to enable local and virtual collaboration. Overall, the event highlighted significant improvements in LLM capabilities since the previous year's hackathon, suggesting continued expansion of LLMs for applications in materials science and chemistry research. These outcomes demonstrate the dual utility of LLMs as both multipurpose models for diverse machine learning tasks and platforms for rapid prototyping custom applications in scientific research.

Language models (LMs) have gained great achievement in various NLP tasks for both fine-tuning and in-context learning (ICL) methods. Despite its outstanding performance, evidence shows that spurious correlations caused by imbalanced label distributions in training data (or exemplars in ICL) lead to robustness issues. However, previous studies mostly focus on word- and phrase-level features and fail to tackle it from the concept level, partly due to the lack of concept labels and subtle and diverse expressions of concepts in text. In this paper, we first use the LLM to label the concept for each text and then measure the concept bias of models for fine-tuning or ICL on the test data. Second, we propose a data rebalancing method to mitigate the spurious correlations by adding the LLM-generated counterfactual data to make a balanced label distribution for each concept. We verify the effectiveness of our mitigation method and show its superiority over the token removal method. Overall, our results show that there exist label distribution biases in concepts across multiple text classification datasets, and LMs will utilize these shortcuts to make predictions in both fine-tuning and ICL methods.

We present ShieldGemma, a comprehensive suite of LLM-based safety content moderation models built upon Gemma2. These models provide robust, state-of-the-art predictions of safety risks across key harm types (sexually explicit, dangerous content, harassment, hate speech) in both user input and LLM-generated output. By evaluating on both public and internal benchmarks, we demonstrate superior performance compared to existing models, such as Llama Guard (+10.8\% AU-PRC on public benchmarks) and WildCard (+4.3\%). Additionally, we present a novel LLM-based data curation pipeline, adaptable to a variety of safety-related tasks and beyond. We have shown strong generalization performance for model trained mainly on synthetic data. By releasing ShieldGemma, we provide a valuable resource to the research community, advancing LLM safety and enabling the creation of more effective content moderation solutions for developers.

The truthfulness of existing explanation methods in authentically elucidating the underlying model's decision-making process has been questioned. Existing methods have deviated from faithfully representing the model, thus susceptible to adversarial attacks. To address this, we propose a novel eXplainable AI (XAI) method called SRD (Sharing Ratio Decomposition), which sincerely reflects the model's inference process, resulting in significantly enhanced robustness in our explanations. Different from the conventional emphasis on the neuronal level, we adopt a vector perspective to consider the intricate nonlinear interactions between filters. We also introduce an interesting observation termed Activation-Pattern-Only Prediction (APOP), letting us emphasize the importance of inactive neurons and redefine relevance encapsulating all relevant information including both active and inactive neurons. Our method, SRD, allows for the recursive decomposition of a Pointwise Feature Vector (PFV), providing a high-resolution Effective Receptive Field (ERF) at any layer.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is marked by significant inter-individual variability in its progression, complicating accurate prognosis and personalized care planning. This heterogeneity underscores the critical need for predictive models capable of forecasting patient-specific disease trajectories. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers powerful tools to address this challenge by analyzing complex, multi-modal, and longitudinal patient data. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of AI methodologies applied to personalized AD progression prediction. We review key approaches including state-space models for capturing temporal dynamics, deep learning techniques like Recurrent Neural Networks for sequence modeling, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for leveraging network structures, and the emerging concept of AI-driven digital twins for individualized simulation. Recognizing that data limitations often impede progress, we examine common challenges such as high dimensionality, missing data, and dataset imbalance. We further discuss AI-driven mitigation strategies, with a specific focus on synthetic data generation using Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to augment and balance datasets. The survey synthesizes the strengths and limitations of current approaches, emphasizing the trend towards multimodal integration and the persistent need for model interpretability and generalizability. Finally, we identify critical open challenges, including robust external validation, clinical integration, and ethical considerations, and outline promising future research directions such as hybrid models, causal inference, and federated learning. This review aims to consolidate current knowledge and guide future efforts in developing clinically relevant AI tools for personalized AD prognostication.

We open-source MiMo-Embodied, the first cross-embodied foundation model to successfully integrate and achieve state-of-the-art performance in both Autonomous Driving and Embodied AI. MiMo-Embodied sets new records across 17 embodied AI benchmarks in Task Planning, Affordance Prediction and Spatial Understanding, while also excelling in 12 autonomous driving benchmarks across Environmental Perception, Status Prediction, and Driving Planning. Across these tasks, MiMo-Embodied significantly outperforms existing open-source, closed-source, and specialized baselines. Our results indicate that through multi-stage learning, curated data construction, and CoT/RL fine-tuning, these two domains exhibit strong positive transfer and mutually reinforce one another. We provide a detailed analysis of our model design and training methodologies to facilitate further research. Code and models are available at https://github.com/XiaomiMiMo/MiMo-Embodied.

A modern paradigm for generalization in machine learning and AI consists of pre-training a task-agnostic foundation model, generally obtained using self-supervised and multimodal contrastive learning. The resulting representations can be used for prediction on a downstream task for which no labeled data is available. We present a theoretical framework to better understand this approach, called zero-shot prediction. We identify the target quantities that zero-shot prediction aims to learn, or learns in passing, and the key conditional independence relationships that enable its generalization ability.

Traditional AI methods often rely on task-specific model designs and training, which constrain both the scalability of model size and generalization across different tasks. Here, we introduce ChemFM, a large foundation model specifically developed for chemicals. By conducting a series of scaling experiments, we identify UniChem as the informative molecular database for pre-training the foundation model. ChemFM comprises 3 billion parameters and is pre-trained on 178 million molecules using self-supervised causal language modeling to extract generalizable molecular representations. This model can be adapted to diverse downstream chemical applications using either full-parameter or parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. ChemFM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art task-specific AI models across all tested tasks. Notably, it achieves up to 67.48% performance improvement across 34 property prediction benchmarks, up to 33.80% reduction in mean average deviation between conditioned and actual properties of generated molecules in conditional molecular generation tasks, and up to 3.7% top-1 accuracy improvement across 4 reaction prediction datasets. Moreover, ChemFM demonstrates its superior performance in predicting antibiotic activity and cytotoxicity, highlighting its potential to advance the discovery of novel antibiotics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, as a foundation model, ChemFM exhibits strong data efficiency, requiring significantly fewer labeled training samples to achieve state-of-the-art performance. We anticipate that ChemFM will significantly advance chemistry research by providing a foundation model capable of effectively generalizing across a broad range of tasks with minimal additional training.

With a broad range of emerging applications in 6G networks, wireless traffic prediction has become a critical component of network management. However, the dynamically shifting distribution of wireless traffic in non-stationary 6G networks presents significant challenges to achieving accurate and stable predictions. Motivated by recent advancements in Generative AI (GAI)-enabled 6G networks, this paper proposes a novel self-refined Large Language Model (LLM) for wireless traffic prediction, namely TrafficLLM, through in-context learning without parameter fine-tuning or model training. The proposed TrafficLLM harnesses the powerful few-shot learning abilities of LLMs to enhance the scalability of traffic prediction in dynamically changing wireless environments. Specifically, our proposed TrafficLLM embraces an LLM to iteratively refine its predictions through a three-step process: traffic prediction, feedback generation, and prediction refinement. Initially, the proposed TrafficLLM conducts traffic predictions using task-specific demonstration prompts. Recognizing that LLMs may generate incorrect predictions on the first attempt, we subsequently incorporate feedback demonstration prompts designed to provide multifaceted and valuable feedback related to these initial predictions. Following this comprehensive feedback, our proposed TrafficLLM introduces refinement demonstration prompts, enabling the same LLM to further refine its predictions and thereby enhance prediction performance. The evaluations on two realistic datasets demonstrate that the proposed TrafficLLM outperforms state-of-the-art methods with performance improvements of 23.17% and 17.09%, respectively.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

AI-generated text detection plays an increasingly important role in various fields. In this study, we developed an efficient AI-generated text detection model based on the BERT algorithm, which provides new ideas and methods for solving related problems. In the data preprocessing stage, a series of steps were taken to process the text, including operations such as converting to lowercase, word splitting, removing stop words, stemming extraction, removing digits, and eliminating redundant spaces, to ensure data quality and accuracy. By dividing the dataset into a training set and a test set in the ratio of 60% and 40%, and observing the changes in the accuracy and loss values during the training process, we found that the model performed well during the training process. The accuracy increases steadily from the initial 94.78% to 99.72%, while the loss value decreases from 0.261 to 0.021 and converges gradually, which indicates that the BERT model is able to detect AI-generated text with high accuracy and the prediction results are gradually approaching the real classification results. Further analysis of the results of the training and test sets reveals that in terms of loss value, the average loss of the training set is 0.0565, while the average loss of the test set is 0.0917, showing a slightly higher loss value. As for the accuracy, the average accuracy of the training set reaches 98.1%, while the average accuracy of the test set is 97.71%, which is not much different from each other, indicating that the model has good generalisation ability. In conclusion, the AI-generated text detection model based on the BERT algorithm proposed in this study shows high accuracy and stability in experiments, providing an effective solution for related fields.

General-purpose 3D chemical modeling encompasses molecules and materials, requiring both generative and predictive capabilities. However, most existing AI approaches are optimized for a single domain (molecules or materials) and a single task (generation or prediction), which limits representation sharing and transfer. We introduce Zatom-1, the first end-to-end, fully open-source foundation model that unifies generative and predictive learning of 3D molecules and materials. Zatom-1 is a Transformer trained with a multimodal flow matching objective that jointly models discrete atom types and continuous 3D geometries. This approach supports scalable pretraining with predictable gains as model capacity increases, while enabling fast and stable sampling. We use joint generative pretraining as a universal initialization for downstream multi-task prediction of properties, energies, and forces. Empirically, Zatom-1 matches or outperforms specialized baselines on both generative and predictive benchmarks, while reducing the generative inference time by more than an order of magnitude. Our experiments demonstrate positive predictive transfer between chemical domains from joint generative pretraining: modeling materials during pretraining improves molecular property prediction accuracy.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

With the rapid development of large multimodal models, reliable judge and critic models have become essential for open-ended evaluation and preference alignment, providing pairwise preferences, numerical scores, and explanatory justifications for assessing model-generated responses. However, existing critics are primarily trained in general visual domains such as captioning or image question answering, leaving physical AI tasks involving perception, causal reasoning, and planning largely underexplored. We introduce PhyCritic, a multimodal critic model optimized for physical AI through a two-stage RLVR pipeline: a physical skill warmup stage that enhances physically oriented perception and reasoning, followed by self-referential critic finetuning, where the critic generates its own prediction as an internal reference before judging candidate responses, improving judgment stability and physical correctness. Across both physical and general-purpose multimodal judge benchmarks, PhyCritic achieves strong performance gains over open-source baselines and, when applied as a policy model, further improves perception and reasoning in physically grounded tasks.

With the increasing availability of structured and unstructured data and the swift progress of analytical techniques, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is bringing a revolution to the healthcare industry. With the increasingly indispensable role of AI in healthcare, there are growing concerns over the lack of transparency and explainability in addition to potential bias encountered by predictions of the model. This is where Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) comes into the picture. XAI increases the trust placed in an AI system by medical practitioners as well as AI researchers, and thus, eventually, leads to an increasingly widespread deployment of AI in healthcare. In this paper, we present different interpretability techniques. The aim is to enlighten practitioners on the understandability and interpretability of explainable AI systems using a variety of techniques available which can be very advantageous in the health-care domain. Medical diagnosis model is responsible for human life and we need to be confident enough to treat a patient as instructed by a black-box model. Our paper contains examples based on the heart disease dataset and elucidates on how the explainability techniques should be preferred to create trustworthiness while using AI systems in healthcare.

The development of artificial intelligence systems is transitioning from creating static, task-specific models to dynamic, agent-based systems capable of performing well in a wide range of applications. We propose an Interactive Agent Foundation Model that uses a novel multi-task agent training paradigm for training AI agents across a wide range of domains, datasets, and tasks. Our training paradigm unifies diverse pre-training strategies, including visual masked auto-encoders, language modeling, and next-action prediction, enabling a versatile and adaptable AI framework. We demonstrate the performance of our framework across three separate domains -- Robotics, Gaming AI, and Healthcare. Our model demonstrates its ability to generate meaningful and contextually relevant outputs in each area. The strength of our approach lies in its generality, leveraging a variety of data sources such as robotics sequences, gameplay data, large-scale video datasets, and textual information for effective multimodal and multi-task learning. Our approach provides a promising avenue for developing generalist, action-taking, multimodal systems.

In this position paper, we observe that empirical evaluation in Generative AI is at a crisis point since traditional ML evaluation and benchmarking strategies are insufficient to meet the needs of evaluating modern GenAI models and systems. There are many reasons for this, including the fact that these models typically have nearly unbounded input and output spaces, typically do not have a well defined ground truth target, and typically exhibit strong feedback loops and prediction dependence based on context of previous model outputs. On top of these critical issues, we argue that the problems of {\em leakage} and {\em contamination} are in fact the most important and difficult issues to address for GenAI evaluations. Interestingly, the field of AI Competitions has developed effective measures and practices to combat leakage for the purpose of counteracting cheating by bad actors within a competition setting. This makes AI Competitions an especially valuable (but underutilized) resource. Now is time for the field to view AI Competitions as the gold standard for empirical rigor in GenAI evaluation, and to harness and harvest their results with according value.

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading 43 years of hourly global weather data from the 5th generation of ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5) data and train a few deep neural networks with about 256 million parameters in total. The spatial resolution of forecast is 0.25^circtimes0.25^circ, comparable to the ECMWF Integrated Forecast Systems (IFS). More importantly, for the first time, an AI-based method outperforms state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in terms of accuracy (latitude-weighted RMSE and ACC) of all factors (e.g., geopotential, specific humidity, wind speed, temperature, etc.) and in all time ranges (from one hour to one week). There are two key strategies to improve the prediction accuracy: (i) designing a 3D Earth Specific Transformer (3DEST) architecture that formulates the height (pressure level) information into cubic data, and (ii) applying a hierarchical temporal aggregation algorithm to alleviate cumulative forecast errors. In deterministic forecast, Pangu-Weather shows great advantages for short to medium-range forecast (i.e., forecast time ranges from one hour to one week). Pangu-Weather supports a wide range of downstream forecast scenarios, including extreme weather forecast (e.g., tropical cyclone tracking) and large-member ensemble forecast in real-time. Pangu-Weather not only ends the debate on whether AI-based methods can surpass conventional NWP methods, but also reveals novel directions for improving deep learning weather forecast systems.

Heart failure (HF) affects 11.8% of adults aged 65 and older, reducing quality of life and longevity. Preventing HF can reduce morbidity and mortality. We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) applied to 24-hour single-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) data could predict the risk of HF within five years. To research this, the Technion-Leumit Holter ECG (TLHE) dataset, including 69,663 recordings from 47,729 patients, collected over 20 years was used. Our deep learning model, DeepHHF, trained on 24-hour ECG recordings, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 that outperformed a model using 30-second segments and a clinical score. High-risk individuals identified by DeepHHF had a two-fold chance of hospitalization or death incidents. Explainability analysis showed DeepHHF focused on arrhythmias and heart abnormalities, with key attention between 8 AM and 3 PM. This study highlights the feasibility of deep learning to model 24-hour continuous ECG data, capturing paroxysmal events and circadian variations essential for reliable risk prediction. Artificial intelligence applied to single-lead Holter ECG is non-invasive, inexpensive, and widely accessible, making it a promising tool for HF risk prediction.

As world models gain momentum in Embodied AI, an increasing number of works explore using video foundation models as predictive world models for downstream embodied tasks like 3D prediction or interactive generation. However, before exploring these downstream tasks, video foundation models still have two critical questions unanswered: (1) whether their generative generalization is sufficient to maintain perceptual fidelity in the eyes of human observers, and (2) whether they are robust enough to serve as a universal prior for real-world embodied agents. To provide a standardized framework for answering these questions, we introduce the Embodied Turing Test benchmark: WoW-World-Eval (Wow,wo,val). Building upon 609 robot manipulation data, Wow-wo-val examines five core abilities, including perception, planning, prediction, generalization, and execution. We propose a comprehensive evaluation protocol with 22 metrics to assess the models' generation ability, which achieves a high Pearson Correlation between the overall score and human preference (>0.93) and establishes a reliable foundation for the Human Turing Test. On Wow-wo-val, models achieve only 17.27 on long-horizon planning and at best 68.02 on physical consistency, indicating limited spatiotemporal consistency and physical reasoning. For the Inverse Dynamic Model Turing Test, we first use an IDM to evaluate the video foundation models' execution accuracy in the real world. However, most models collapse to approx 0% success, while WoW maintains a 40.74% success rate. These findings point to a noticeable gap between the generated videos and the real world, highlighting the urgency and necessity of benchmarking World Model in Embodied AI.

End-to-end architectures trained via imitation learning have advanced autonomous driving by scaling model size and data, yet performance remains brittle in safety-critical long-tail scenarios where supervision is sparse and causal understanding is limited. To address this, we introduce Alpamayo-R1 (AR1), a vision-language-action model (VLA) that integrates Chain of Causation reasoning with trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Our approach features three key innovations: (1) the Chain of Causation (CoC) dataset, built through a hybrid auto-labeling and human-in-the-loop pipeline producing decision-grounded, causally linked reasoning traces aligned with driving behaviors; (2) a modular VLA architecture combining Cosmos-Reason, a Vision-Language Model pre-trained for Physical AI applications, with a diffusion-based trajectory decoder that generates dynamically feasible plans in real time; (3) a multi-stage training strategy using supervised fine-tuning to elicit reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize reasoning quality via large reasoning model feedback and enforce reasoning-action consistency. Evaluation shows AR1 achieves up to a 12% improvement in planning accuracy on challenging cases compared to a trajectory-only baseline, with a 35% reduction in off-road rate and 25% reduction in close encounter rate in closed-loop simulation. RL post-training improves reasoning quality by 45% as measured by a large reasoning model critic and reasoning-action consistency by 37%. Model scaling from 0.5B to 7B parameters shows consistent improvements. On-vehicle road tests confirm real-time performance (99 ms latency) and successful urban deployment. By bridging interpretable reasoning with precise control, AR1 demonstrates a practical path towards Level 4 autonomous driving. We plan to release AR1 models and a subset of the CoC in a future update.

The rapid development of text-to-image (T2I) generation approaches has attracted extensive interest in evaluating the quality of generated images, leading to the development of various quality assessment methods for general-purpose T2I outputs. However, existing image quality assessment (IQA) methods are limited to providing global quality scores, failing to deliver fine-grained perceptual evaluations for structurally complex subjects like humans, which is a critical challenge considering the frequent anatomical and textural distortions in AI-generated human images (AGHIs). To address this gap, we introduce AGHI-QA, the first large-scale benchmark specifically designed for quality assessment of AGHIs. The dataset comprises 4,000 images generated from 400 carefully crafted text prompts using 10 state of-the-art T2I models. We conduct a systematic subjective study to collect multidimensional annotations, including perceptual quality scores, text-image correspondence scores, visible and distorted body part labels. Based on AGHI-QA, we evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of current T2I methods in generating human images from multiple dimensions. Furthermore, we propose AGHI-Assessor, a novel quality metric that integrates the large multimodal model (LMM) with domain-specific human features for precise quality prediction and identification of visible and distorted body parts in AGHIs. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that AGHI-Assessor showcases state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming existing IQA methods in multidimensional quality assessment and surpassing leading LMMs in detecting structural distortions in AGHIs.

This paper introduces M^{3}-20M, a large-scale Multi-Modal Molecular dataset that contains over 20 million molecules. Designed to support AI-driven drug design and discovery, M^{3}-20M is 71 times more in the number of molecules than the largest existing dataset, providing an unprecedented scale that can highly benefit training or fine-tuning large (language) models with superior performance for drug design and discovery. This dataset integrates one-dimensional SMILES, two-dimensional molecular graphs, three-dimensional molecular structures, physicochemical properties, and textual descriptions collected through web crawling and generated by using GPT-3.5, offering a comprehensive view of each molecule. To demonstrate the power of M^{3}-20M in drug design and discovery, we conduct extensive experiments on two key tasks: molecule generation and molecular property prediction, using large language models including GLM4, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4. Our experimental results show that M^{3}-20M can significantly boost model performance in both tasks. Specifically, it enables the models to generate more diverse and valid molecular structures and achieve higher property prediction accuracy than the existing single-modal datasets, which validates the value and potential of M^{3}-20M in supporting AI-driven drug design and discovery. The dataset is available at https://github.com/bz99bz/M-3.

This paper presents the Jazz Transformer, a generative model that utilizes a neural sequence model called the Transformer-XL for modeling lead sheets of Jazz music. Moreover, the model endeavors to incorporate structural events present in the Weimar Jazz Database (WJazzD) for inducing structures in the generated music. While we are able to reduce the training loss to a low value, our listening test suggests however a clear gap between the average ratings of the generated and real compositions. We therefore go one step further and conduct a series of computational analysis of the generated compositions from different perspectives. This includes analyzing the statistics of the pitch class, grooving, and chord progression, assessing the structureness of the music with the help of the fitness scape plot, and evaluating the model's understanding of Jazz music through a MIREX-like continuation prediction task. Our work presents in an analytical manner why machine-generated music to date still falls short of the artwork of humanity, and sets some goals for future work on automatic composition to further pursue.

The discovery of next-generation photoinitiators for two-photon polymerization (TPP) is hindered by the absence of large, open datasets containing the quantum-chemical and photophysical properties required to model photodissociation and excited-state behavior. Existing molecular datasets typically provide only basic physicochemical descriptors and therefore cannot support data-driven screening or AI-assisted design of photoinitiators. To address this gap, we introduce QuantumChem-200K, a large-scale dataset of over 200,000 organic molecules annotated with eleven quantum-chemical properties, including two-photon absorption (TPA) cross sections, TPA spectral ranges, singlet-triplet intersystem crossing (ISC) energies, toxicity and synthetic accessibility scores, hydrophilicity, solubility, boiling point, molecular weight, and aromaticity. These values are computed using a hybrid workflow that integrates density function theory (DFT), semi-empirical excited-state methods, atomistic quantum solvers, and neural-network predictors. Using QuantumChem-200K, we fine tune the open-source Qwen2.5-32B large language model to create a chemistry AI assistant capable of forward property prediction from SMILES. Benchmarking on 3000 unseen molecules from VQM24 and ZINC20 demonstrates that domain-specific fine-tuning significantly improves accuracy over GPT-4o, Llama-3.1-70B, and the base Qwen2.5-32B model, particularly for TPA and ISC predictions central to photoinitiator design. QuantumChem-200K and the corresponding AI assistant together provide the first scalable platform for high-throughput, LLM-driven photoinitiator screening and accelerated discovery of photosensitive materials.

Achieving human-like driving behaviors in complex open-world environments is a critical challenge in autonomous driving. Contemporary learning-based planning approaches such as imitation learning methods often struggle to balance competing objectives and lack of safety assurance,due to limited adaptability and inadequacy in learning complex multi-modal behaviors commonly exhibited in human planning, not to mention their strong reliance on the fallback strategy with predefined rules. We propose a novel transformer-based Diffusion Planner for closed-loop planning, which can effectively model multi-modal driving behavior and ensure trajectory quality without any rule-based refinement. Our model supports joint modeling of both prediction and planning tasks under the same architecture, enabling cooperative behaviors between vehicles. Moreover, by learning the gradient of the trajectory score function and employing a flexible classifier guidance mechanism, Diffusion Planner effectively achieves safe and adaptable planning behaviors. Evaluations on the large-scale real-world autonomous planning benchmark nuPlan and our newly collected 200-hour delivery-vehicle driving dataset demonstrate that Diffusion Planner achieves state-of-the-art closed-loop performance with robust transferability in diverse driving styles.

As post-training optimization becomes central to improving large language models, we observe a persistent saturation bottleneck: once models grow highly confident, further training yields diminishing returns. While existing methods continue to reinforce target predictions, we find that informative supervision signals remain latent in models' own historical weak states. Motivated by this observation, we propose WMSS (Weak Agents Can Make Strong Agents Stronger), a post-training paradigm that leverages weak checkpoints to guide continued optimization. By identifying recoverable learning gaps via entropy dynamics and reinforcing them through compensatory learning, WMSS enables strong agents to improve beyond conventional post-training saturation. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and code generation datasets show that agents trained with our approach achieve effective performance improvements, while incurring zero additional inference cost.

The purpose of remote sensing image change detection (RSCD) is to detect differences between bi-temporal images taken at the same place. Deep learning has been extensively used to RSCD tasks, yielding significant results in terms of result recognition. However, due to the shooting angle of the satellite, the impacts of thin clouds, and certain lighting conditions, the problem of fuzzy edges in the change region in some remote sensing photographs cannot be properly handled using current RSCD algorithms. To solve this issue, we proposed a Body Decouple Multi-Scale by fearure Aggregation change detection (BD-MSA), a novel model that collects both global and local feature map information in the channel and space dimensions of the feature map during the training and prediction phases. This approach allows us to successfully extract the change region's boundary information while also divorcing the change region's main body from its boundary. Numerous studies have shown that the assessment metrics and evaluation effects of the model described in this paper on the publicly available datasets DSIFN-CD, S2Looking and WHU-CD are the best when compared to other models.

Understanding how the surrounding environment changes is crucial for performing downstream tasks safely and reliably in autonomous driving applications. Recent occupancy estimation techniques using only camera images as input can provide dense occupancy representations of large-scale scenes based on the current observation. However, they are mostly limited to representing the current 3D space and do not consider the future state of surrounding objects along the time axis. To extend camera-only occupancy estimation into spatiotemporal prediction, we propose Cam4DOcc, a new benchmark for camera-only 4D occupancy forecasting, evaluating the surrounding scene changes in a near future. We build our benchmark based on multiple publicly available datasets, including nuScenes, nuScenes-Occupancy, and Lyft-Level5, which provides sequential occupancy states of general movable and static objects, as well as their 3D backward centripetal flow. To establish this benchmark for future research with comprehensive comparisons, we introduce four baseline types from diverse camera-based perception and prediction implementations, including a static-world occupancy model, voxelization of point cloud prediction, 2D-3D instance-based prediction, and our proposed novel end-to-end 4D occupancy forecasting network. Furthermore, the standardized evaluation protocol for preset multiple tasks is also provided to compare the performance of all the proposed baselines on present and future occupancy estimation with respect to objects of interest in autonomous driving scenarios. The dataset and our implementation of all four baselines in the proposed Cam4DOcc benchmark will be released here: https://github.com/haomo-ai/Cam4DOcc.

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

Clinical dialogue represents a complex duality requiring both the empathetic fluency of natural conversation and the rigorous precision of evidence-based medicine. While Large Language Models possess unprecedented linguistic capabilities, their architectural reliance on reactive and stateless processing often favors probabilistic plausibility over factual veracity. This structural limitation has catalyzed a paradigm shift in medical AI from generative text prediction to agentic autonomy, where the model functions as a central reasoning engine capable of deliberate planning and persistent memory. Moving beyond existing reviews that primarily catalog downstream applications, this survey provides a first-principles analysis of the cognitive architecture underpinning this shift. We introduce a novel taxonomy structured along the orthogonal axes of knowledge source and agency objective to delineate the provenance of clinical knowledge against the system's operational scope. This framework facilitates a systematic analysis of the intrinsic trade-offs between creativity and reliability by categorizing methods into four archetypes: Latent Space Clinicians, Emergent Planners, Grounded Synthesizers, and Verifiable Workflow Automators. For each paradigm, we deconstruct the technical realization across the entire cognitive pipeline, encompassing strategic planning, memory management, action execution, collaboration, and evolution to reveal how distinct architectural choices balance the tension between autonomy and safety.

The rapid advancement in generative artificial intelligence have enabled the creation of 3D human faces (HFs) for applications including media production, virtual reality, security, healthcare, and game development, etc. However, assessing the quality and realism of these AI-generated 3D human faces remains a significant challenge due to the subjective nature of human perception and innate perceptual sensitivity to facial features. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive study on the quality assessment of AI-generated 3D human faces. We first introduce Gen3DHF, a large-scale benchmark comprising 2,000 videos of AI-Generated 3D Human Faces along with 4,000 Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) collected across two dimensions, i.e., quality and authenticity, 2,000 distortion-aware saliency maps and distortion descriptions. Based on Gen3DHF, we propose LMME3DHF, a Large Multimodal Model (LMM)-based metric for Evaluating 3DHF capable of quality and authenticity score prediction, distortion-aware visual question answering, and distortion-aware saliency prediction. Experimental results show that LMME3DHF achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing existing methods in both accurately predicting quality scores for AI-generated 3D human faces and effectively identifying distortion-aware salient regions and distortion types, while maintaining strong alignment with human perceptual judgments. Both the Gen3DHF database and the LMME3DHF will be released upon the publication.

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

The discovery of novel Ionic Liquids (ILs) is hindered by critical challenges in property prediction, including limited data, poor model accuracy, and fragmented workflows. Leveraging the power of Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce AIonopedia, to the best of our knowledge, the first LLM agent for IL discovery. Powered by an LLM-augmented multimodal domain foundation model for ILs, AIonopedia enables accurate property predictions and incorporates a hierarchical search architecture for molecular screening and design. Trained and evaluated on a newly curated and comprehensive IL dataset, our model delivers superior performance. Complementing these results, evaluations on literature-reported systems indicate that the agent can perform effective IL modification. Moving beyond offline tests, the practical efficacy was further confirmed through real-world wet-lab validation, in which the agent demonstrated exceptional generalization capabilities on challenging out-of-distribution tasks, underscoring its ability to accelerate real-world IL discovery.

Retrosynthesis prediction aims to infer the reactant molecule based on a given product molecule, which is a fundamental task in chemical synthesis. However, existing models rely on static pattern-matching paradigm, which limits their ability to perform effective logic decision-making, leading to black-box decision-making. Building on this, we propose Retro-Expert, an interpretable retrosynthesis framework that performs collaborative reasoning by combining the complementary reasoning strengths of Large Language Models and specialized models via reinforcement learning. It outputs natural language explanations grounded in chemical logic through three components: (1) specialized models perform shallow reasoning to construct high-quality chemical decision space, (2) LLM-driven critical reasoning to generate predictions and corresponding interpretable reasoning path, and (3) reinforcement learning optimizing interpretable decision policy. Experiments show that Retro-Expert not only surpasses both LLM-based and specialized models across different metrics but also provides expert-aligned explanations that bridge the gap between AI predictions and actionable chemical insights.

As LLMs become increasingly proficient at producing human-like responses, there has been a rise of academic and industrial pursuits dedicated to flagging a given piece of text as "human" or "AI". Most of these pursuits involve modern NLP detectors like T5-Sentinel and RoBERTa-Sentinel, without paying too much attention to issues of interpretability and explainability of these models. In our study, we provide a comprehensive analysis that shows that traditional ML models (Naive-Bayes,MLP, Random Forests, XGBoost) perform as well as modern NLP detectors, in human vs AI text detection. We achieve this by implementing a robust testing procedure on diverse datasets, including curated corpora and real-world samples. Subsequently, by employing the explainable AI technique LIME, we uncover parts of the input that contribute most to the prediction of each model, providing insights into the detection process. Our study contributes to the growing need for developing production-level LLM detection tools, which can leverage a wide range of traditional as well as modern NLP detectors we propose. Finally, the LIME techniques we demonstrate also have the potential to equip these detection tools with interpretability analysis features, making them more reliable and trustworthy in various domains like education, healthcare, and media.

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

Modern language model-based AI systems are remarkably powerful, yet their capabilities remain fundamentally capped by their human creators in three key ways. First, although a model's weights can be updated via fine-tuning, acquiring new knowledge from small, specialized corpora after pretraining remains highly data-inefficient. Second, the training of these systems relies heavily on finite, human-generated data from across history. Third, the pipelines used to train AI models are confined by the algorithms that human researchers can discover and explore. This thesis takes a small step toward overcoming these inherent limitations, presenting three chapters aimed at breaking these dependencies to create continually self-improving AI. First, to overcome this data-efficiency barrier in knowledge acquisition, we propose a synthetic data approach that diversifies and amplifies small corpora into rich knowledge representations, enabling a model to effectively update its parameters from limited source material. Second, to reduce reliance on human data, we show that given a fixed amount of such data, the model can self-generate synthetic data to bootstrap its fundamental pretraining capabilities without distillation from any off-the-shelf, instruction-tuned LM. Finally, to transcend human-engineered training paradigms, we demonstrate that by scaling search during test time over the space of algorithms, AI can search over a larger space of learning algorithm configurations than human researchers can explore manually.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has achieved astonishing successes in many domains, especially with the recent breakthroughs in the development of foundational large models. These large models, leveraging their extensive training data, provide versatile solutions for a wide range of downstream tasks. However, as modern datasets become increasingly diverse and complex, the development of large AI models faces two major challenges: (1) the enormous consumption of computational resources and deployment difficulties, and (2) the difficulty in fitting heterogeneous and complex data, which limits the usability of the models. Mixture of Experts (MoE) models has recently attracted much attention in addressing these challenges, by dynamically selecting and activating the most relevant sub-models to process input data. It has been shown that MoEs can significantly improve model performance and efficiency with fewer resources, particularly excelling in handling large-scale, multimodal data. Given the tremendous potential MoE has demonstrated across various domains, it is urgent to provide a comprehensive summary of recent advancements of MoEs in many important fields. Existing surveys on MoE have their limitations, e.g., being outdated or lacking discussion on certain key areas, and we aim to address these gaps. In this paper, we first introduce the basic design of MoE, including gating functions, expert networks, routing mechanisms, training strategies, and system design. We then explore the algorithm design of MoE in important machine learning paradigms such as continual learning, meta-learning, multi-task learning, and reinforcement learning. Additionally, we summarize theoretical studies aimed at understanding MoE and review its applications in computer vision and natural language processing. Finally, we discuss promising future research directions.

Recent progress in large-scale language models has enabled breakthroughs in previously intractable computer programming tasks. Prior work in meta-learning and neural architecture search has led to substantial successes across various task domains, spawning myriad approaches for algorithmically optimizing the design and learning dynamics of deep learning models. At the intersection of these research areas, we implement a code-generating language model with the ability to modify its own source code. Self-programming AI algorithms have been of interest since the dawn of AI itself. Although various theoretical formulations of generalized self-programming AI have been posed, no such system has been successfully implemented to date under real-world computational constraints. Applying AI-based code generation to AI itself, we develop and experimentally validate the first practical implementation of a self-programming AI system. We empirically show that a self-programming AI implemented using a code generation model can successfully modify its own source code to improve performance and program sub-models to perform auxiliary tasks. Our model can self-modify various properties including model architecture, computational capacity, and learning dynamics.

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have opened new avenues for accelerating scientific research. While models are increasingly capable of assisting with routine tasks, their ability to contribute to novel, expert-level mathematical discovery is less understood. We present a collection of case studies demonstrating how researchers have successfully collaborated with advanced AI models, specifically Google's Gemini-based models (in particular Gemini Deep Think and its advanced variants), to solve open problems, refute conjectures, and generate new proofs across diverse areas in theoretical computer science, as well as other areas such as economics, optimization, and physics. Based on these experiences, we extract common techniques for effective human-AI collaboration in theoretical research, such as iterative refinement, problem decomposition, and cross-disciplinary knowledge transfer. While the majority of our results stem from this interactive, conversational methodology, we also highlight specific instances that push beyond standard chat interfaces. These include deploying the model as a rigorous adversarial reviewer to detect subtle flaws in existing proofs, and embedding it within a "neuro-symbolic" loop that autonomously writes and executes code to verify complex derivations. Together, these examples highlight the potential of AI not just as a tool for automation, but as a versatile, genuine partner in the creative process of scientific discovery.

Accurate prediction of human behavior is essential for robust and safe human-AI collaboration. However, existing approaches for modeling people are often data-hungry and brittle because they either make unrealistic assumptions about rationality or are too computationally demanding to adapt rapidly. Our key insight is that many everyday social interactions may follow predictable patterns; efficient "scripts" that minimize cognitive load for actors and observers, e.g., "wait for the green light, then go." We propose modeling these routines as behavioral programs instantiated in computer code rather than policies conditioned on beliefs and desires. We introduce ROTE, a novel algorithm that leverages both large language models (LLMs) for synthesizing a hypothesis space of behavioral programs, and probabilistic inference for reasoning about uncertainty over that space. We test ROTE in a suite of gridworld tasks and a large-scale embodied household simulator. ROTE predicts human and AI behaviors from sparse observations, outperforming competitive baselines -- including behavior cloning and LLM-based methods -- by as much as 50% in terms of in-sample accuracy and out-of-sample generalization. By treating action understanding as a program synthesis problem, ROTE opens a path for AI systems to efficiently and effectively predict human behavior in the real-world.

AIOps (Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations) solutions leverage the tremendous amount of data produced during the operation of large-scale systems and machine learning models to assist software practitioners in their system operations. Existing AIOps solutions usually maintain AIOps models against concept drift through periodical retraining, despite leaving a pile of discarded historical models that may perform well on specific future data. Other prior works propose dynamically selecting models for prediction tasks from a set of candidate models to optimize the model performance. However, there is no prior work in the AIOps area that assesses the use of model selection mechanisms on historical models to improve model performance or robustness. To fill the gap, we evaluate several model selection mechanisms by assessing their capabilities in selecting the optimal AIOps models that were built in the past to make predictions for the target data. We performed a case study on three large-scale public operation datasets: two trace datasets from the cloud computing platforms of Google and Alibaba, and one disk stats dataset from the BackBlaze cloud storage data center. We observe that the model selection mechnisms utilizing temporal adjacency tend to have a better performance and can prevail the periodical retraining approach. Our findings also highlight a performance gap between existing model selection mechnisms and the theoretical upper bound which may motivate future researchers and practitioners in investigating more efficient and effective model selection mechanisms that fit in the context of AIOps.

This paper introduces a new metamodel-based knowledge representation that significantly improves autonomous learning and adaptation. While interest in hybrid machine learning / symbolic AI systems leveraging, for example, reasoning and knowledge graphs, is gaining popularity, we find there remains a need for both a clear definition of knowledge and a metamodel to guide the creation and manipulation of knowledge. Some of the benefits of the metamodel we introduce in this paper include a solution to the symbol grounding problem, cumulative learning, and federated learning. We have applied the metamodel to problems ranging from time series analysis, computer vision, and natural language understanding and have found that the metamodel enables a wide variety of learning mechanisms ranging from machine learning, to graph network analysis and learning by reasoning engines to interoperate in a highly synergistic way. Our metamodel-based projects have consistently exhibited unprecedented accuracy, performance, and ability to generalize. This paper is inspired by the state-of-the-art approaches to AGI, recent AGI-aspiring work, the granular computing community, as well as Alfred Korzybski's general semantics. One surprising consequence of the metamodel is that it not only enables a new level of autonomous learning and optimal functioning for machine intelligences, but may also shed light on a path to better understanding how to improve human cognition.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Explaining artificial intelligence (AI) predictions is increasingly important and even imperative in many high-stakes applications where humans are the ultimate decision-makers. In this work, we propose two novel architectures of self-interpretable image classifiers that first explain, and then predict (as opposed to post-hoc explanations) by harnessing the visual correspondences between a query image and exemplars. Our models consistently improve (by 1 to 4 points) on out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets while performing marginally worse (by 1 to 2 points) on in-distribution tests than ResNet-50 and a k-nearest neighbor classifier (kNN). Via a large-scale, human study on ImageNet and CUB, our correspondence-based explanations are found to be more useful to users than kNN explanations. Our explanations help users more accurately reject AI's wrong decisions than all other tested methods. Interestingly, for the first time, we show that it is possible to achieve complementary human-AI team accuracy (i.e., that is higher than either AI-alone or human-alone), in ImageNet and CUB image classification tasks.