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Train MarketGPT return-token model

Browse files
README.md ADDED
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+ ---
2
+ library_name: transformers
3
+ tags:
4
+ - gpt2
5
+ - causal-lm
6
+ - time-series
7
+ - finance
8
+ - return-tokenization
9
+ - probabilistic-generation
10
+ datasets:
11
+ - siddharthmb/stocks-ohlcv
12
+ ---
13
+
14
+ # MarketGPT Return-token Model
15
+
16
+ This is a GPT-style causal language model trained from scratch on volatility-normalized return tokens.
17
+
18
+ Instead of directly regressing future continuous returns, the pipeline converts each asset return into a discrete bucket token:
19
+
20
+ ```text
21
+ past return tokens -> future return tokens
22
+ ```
23
+
24
+ The model can sample multiple future return paths with constrained generation.
25
+
26
+ ## Data
27
+
28
+ - Data source: `siddharthmb/stocks-ohlcv` when `use_synthetic=false`; synthetic heavy-tailed market panel when `use_synthetic=true`
29
+ - Assets: `AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA, AMD, INTC, JPM, BAC, V, MA`
30
+ - Return: `log(price_t / price_t-1)`
31
+ - Normalization: return divided by EWM volatility, span `60`
32
+ - Buckets: `101` `quantile` buckets over clipped normalized returns
33
+ - Split: chronological train / validation / test
34
+ - Leakage control: quantile bucket edges are fitted only on the train period when `bucket_method=quantile`
35
+
36
+ ## Vocabulary
37
+
38
+ ```text
39
+ PAD = 0
40
+ BOS = 1
41
+ EOS = 2
42
+ STEP = 3
43
+ asset_bucket_token = 4 + asset_id * num_buckets + bucket_id
44
+ ```
45
+
46
+ - vocab size: `1216`
47
+ - sequence length: `2082`
48
+
49
+ ## Model
50
+
51
+ ```python
52
+ GPT2Config(
53
+ vocab_size=1216,
54
+ n_positions=2082,
55
+ n_embd=384,
56
+ n_layer=6,
57
+ n_head=6,
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+ )
59
+ ```
60
+
61
+ ## Metrics
62
+
63
+ ```json
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+ "generated_abs_return_autocorr_lag1": 0.019996171948218167,
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+ "true_abs_return_autocorr_lag1": 0.2633381616777056
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+ },
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+ "data": {
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+ "tickers": [
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+ "AAPL",
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+ "MSFT",
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+ "AMZN",
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+ "GOOGL",
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+ "NVDA",
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+ "TSLA",
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+ "AMD",
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+ "INTC",
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+ "JPM",
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+ "BAC",
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+ "V",
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+ "MA"
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+ ],
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+ "price_shape": [
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+ "return_shape": [
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+ "bucket_method": "quantile",
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+ "num_samples": 3611,
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+ "train_samples": 2888,
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+ "validation_samples": 361,
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+ "test_samples": 362,
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+ "sequence_length": 2082,
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+ "vocab_size": 1216,
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+ "num_parameters": 11913984,
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+ "data_source": "siddharthmb/stocks-ohlcv"
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+ }
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+ }
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+ ```
493
+
494
+ ## Intended Use
495
+
496
+ Research and experimentation with market return sequence generation. This model is not a trading system and is not investment advice.
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