Train MarketGPT return-token model
Browse files- README.md +496 -0
- asset_list.json +14 -0
- bucket_edges.json +104 -0
- config.json +35 -0
- cross_sectional_corr_generated.csv +13 -0
- cross_sectional_corr_real.csv +13 -0
- distribution_comparison.csv +17 -0
- generation_config.json +7 -0
- market_vocab.json +27 -0
- metrics.json +428 -0
- model.safetensors +3 -0
- preprocess_config.json +9 -0
- training_config.json +58 -0
README.md
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|
| 1 |
+
---
|
| 2 |
+
library_name: transformers
|
| 3 |
+
tags:
|
| 4 |
+
- gpt2
|
| 5 |
+
- causal-lm
|
| 6 |
+
- time-series
|
| 7 |
+
- finance
|
| 8 |
+
- return-tokenization
|
| 9 |
+
- probabilistic-generation
|
| 10 |
+
datasets:
|
| 11 |
+
- siddharthmb/stocks-ohlcv
|
| 12 |
+
---
|
| 13 |
+
|
| 14 |
+
# MarketGPT Return-token Model
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
This is a GPT-style causal language model trained from scratch on volatility-normalized return tokens.
|
| 17 |
+
|
| 18 |
+
Instead of directly regressing future continuous returns, the pipeline converts each asset return into a discrete bucket token:
|
| 19 |
+
|
| 20 |
+
```text
|
| 21 |
+
past return tokens -> future return tokens
|
| 22 |
+
```
|
| 23 |
+
|
| 24 |
+
The model can sample multiple future return paths with constrained generation.
|
| 25 |
+
|
| 26 |
+
## Data
|
| 27 |
+
|
| 28 |
+
- Data source: `siddharthmb/stocks-ohlcv` when `use_synthetic=false`; synthetic heavy-tailed market panel when `use_synthetic=true`
|
| 29 |
+
- Assets: `AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA, AMD, INTC, JPM, BAC, V, MA`
|
| 30 |
+
- Return: `log(price_t / price_t-1)`
|
| 31 |
+
- Normalization: return divided by EWM volatility, span `60`
|
| 32 |
+
- Buckets: `101` `quantile` buckets over clipped normalized returns
|
| 33 |
+
- Split: chronological train / validation / test
|
| 34 |
+
- Leakage control: quantile bucket edges are fitted only on the train period when `bucket_method=quantile`
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
## Vocabulary
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
```text
|
| 39 |
+
PAD = 0
|
| 40 |
+
BOS = 1
|
| 41 |
+
EOS = 2
|
| 42 |
+
STEP = 3
|
| 43 |
+
asset_bucket_token = 4 + asset_id * num_buckets + bucket_id
|
| 44 |
+
```
|
| 45 |
+
|
| 46 |
+
- vocab size: `1216`
|
| 47 |
+
- sequence length: `2082`
|
| 48 |
+
|
| 49 |
+
## Model
|
| 50 |
+
|
| 51 |
+
```python
|
| 52 |
+
GPT2Config(
|
| 53 |
+
vocab_size=1216,
|
| 54 |
+
n_positions=2082,
|
| 55 |
+
n_embd=384,
|
| 56 |
+
n_layer=6,
|
| 57 |
+
n_head=6,
|
| 58 |
+
)
|
| 59 |
+
```
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
## Metrics
|
| 62 |
+
|
| 63 |
+
```json
|
| 64 |
+
{
|
| 65 |
+
"train": {
|
| 66 |
+
"train_runtime": 55.4346,
|
| 67 |
+
"train_samples_per_second": 260.487,
|
| 68 |
+
"train_steps_per_second": 8.208,
|
| 69 |
+
"total_flos": 1920653130792960.0,
|
| 70 |
+
"train_loss": 3.8263048025277944,
|
| 71 |
+
"epoch": 5.0
|
| 72 |
+
},
|
| 73 |
+
"validation": {
|
| 74 |
+
"eval_loss": 5.103570461273193,
|
| 75 |
+
"eval_runtime": 0.5501,
|
| 76 |
+
"eval_samples_per_second": 656.204,
|
| 77 |
+
"eval_steps_per_second": 165.414,
|
| 78 |
+
"epoch": 5.0
|
| 79 |
+
},
|
| 80 |
+
"test": {
|
| 81 |
+
"test_loss": 5.131337642669678,
|
| 82 |
+
"test_runtime": 0.59,
|
| 83 |
+
"test_samples_per_second": 613.581,
|
| 84 |
+
"test_steps_per_second": 154.243,
|
| 85 |
+
"epoch": 5.0
|
| 86 |
+
},
|
| 87 |
+
"generation": {
|
| 88 |
+
"num_contexts": 12,
|
| 89 |
+
"num_sample_paths": 24,
|
| 90 |
+
"directional_accuracy_median_path": 0.5219184027777778,
|
| 91 |
+
"generated_degeneration_ratio_abs_lt_1e-5": 0.0,
|
| 92 |
+
"true_degeneration_ratio_abs_lt_1e-5": 0.0,
|
| 93 |
+
"path_diversity": 0.03765995055437088,
|
| 94 |
+
"distribution_generated": {
|
| 95 |
+
"mean": 0.004333046730607748,
|
| 96 |
+
"std": 0.08561652898788452,
|
| 97 |
+
"skew": -0.5086434483528137,
|
| 98 |
+
"kurtosis": 56.622493743896484,
|
| 99 |
+
"q01": -0.2753317952156067,
|
| 100 |
+
"q05": -0.037811942398548126,
|
| 101 |
+
"q95": 0.05145534127950668,
|
| 102 |
+
"q99": 0.33806970715522766
|
| 103 |
+
},
|
| 104 |
+
"distribution_true": {
|
| 105 |
+
"mean": -0.002802362898364663,
|
| 106 |
+
"std": 0.030968399718403816,
|
| 107 |
+
"skew": -2.6303722858428955,
|
| 108 |
+
"kurtosis": 23.258527755737305,
|
| 109 |
+
"q01": -0.09194755554199219,
|
| 110 |
+
"q05": -0.05170159786939621,
|
| 111 |
+
"q95": 0.04157276824116707,
|
| 112 |
+
"q99": 0.06143633648753166
|
| 113 |
+
},
|
| 114 |
+
"cross_sectional_corr_mae": 0.24682527780532837,
|
| 115 |
+
"cross_sectional_corr_real_matrix": [
|
| 116 |
+
[
|
| 117 |
+
1.0,
|
| 118 |
+
0.6331244707107544,
|
| 119 |
+
0.51563560962677,
|
| 120 |
+
0.7108922600746155,
|
| 121 |
+
0.5545589923858643,
|
| 122 |
+
0.5535476207733154,
|
| 123 |
+
0.5244247317314148,
|
| 124 |
+
0.21973548829555511,
|
| 125 |
+
0.3254808187484741,
|
| 126 |
+
0.296897292137146,
|
| 127 |
+
0.6087028384208679,
|
| 128 |
+
0.5639088153839111
|
| 129 |
+
],
|
| 130 |
+
[
|
| 131 |
+
0.6331244707107544,
|
| 132 |
+
1.0,
|
| 133 |
+
0.6599540114402771,
|
| 134 |
+
0.7749960422515869,
|
| 135 |
+
0.5495731830596924,
|
| 136 |
+
0.6230116486549377,
|
| 137 |
+
0.46573472023010254,
|
| 138 |
+
0.48720842599868774,
|
| 139 |
+
0.45291945338249207,
|
| 140 |
+
0.311764121055603,
|
| 141 |
+
0.6260378360748291,
|
| 142 |
+
0.47891733050346375
|
| 143 |
+
],
|
| 144 |
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[
|
| 145 |
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0.51563560962677,
|
| 146 |
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0.6599540114402771,
|
| 147 |
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1.0,
|
| 148 |
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0.6038300395011902,
|
| 149 |
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0.5262182950973511,
|
| 150 |
+
0.5929338335990906,
|
| 151 |
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0.42031070590019226,
|
| 152 |
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0.8166924715042114,
|
| 153 |
+
0.5714275240898132,
|
| 154 |
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0.5298638343811035,
|
| 155 |
+
0.4197486639022827,
|
| 156 |
+
0.4404708445072174
|
| 157 |
+
],
|
| 158 |
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[
|
| 159 |
+
0.7108922600746155,
|
| 160 |
+
0.7749960422515869,
|
| 161 |
+
0.6038300395011902,
|
| 162 |
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1.0,
|
| 163 |
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0.5228630900382996,
|
| 164 |
+
0.6676064133644104,
|
| 165 |
+
0.5059135556221008,
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|
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],
|
| 455 |
+
"generated_abs_return_autocorr_lag1": 0.019996171948218167,
|
| 456 |
+
"true_abs_return_autocorr_lag1": 0.2633381616777056
|
| 457 |
+
},
|
| 458 |
+
"data": {
|
| 459 |
+
"tickers": [
|
| 460 |
+
"AAPL",
|
| 461 |
+
"MSFT",
|
| 462 |
+
"AMZN",
|
| 463 |
+
"GOOGL",
|
| 464 |
+
"NVDA",
|
| 465 |
+
"TSLA",
|
| 466 |
+
"AMD",
|
| 467 |
+
"INTC",
|
| 468 |
+
"JPM",
|
| 469 |
+
"BAC",
|
| 470 |
+
"V",
|
| 471 |
+
"MA"
|
| 472 |
+
],
|
| 473 |
+
"price_shape": [
|
| 474 |
+
3790,
|
| 475 |
+
12
|
| 476 |
+
],
|
| 477 |
+
"return_shape": [
|
| 478 |
+
3770,
|
| 479 |
+
12
|
| 480 |
+
],
|
| 481 |
+
"bucket_method": "quantile",
|
| 482 |
+
"num_samples": 3611,
|
| 483 |
+
"train_samples": 2888,
|
| 484 |
+
"validation_samples": 361,
|
| 485 |
+
"test_samples": 362,
|
| 486 |
+
"sequence_length": 2082,
|
| 487 |
+
"vocab_size": 1216,
|
| 488 |
+
"num_parameters": 11913984,
|
| 489 |
+
"data_source": "siddharthmb/stocks-ohlcv"
|
| 490 |
+
}
|
| 491 |
+
}
|
| 492 |
+
```
|
| 493 |
+
|
| 494 |
+
## Intended Use
|
| 495 |
+
|
| 496 |
+
Research and experimentation with market return sequence generation. This model is not a trading system and is not investment advice.
|
asset_list.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|
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|
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|
| 1 |
+
[
|
| 2 |
+
"AAPL",
|
| 3 |
+
"MSFT",
|
| 4 |
+
"AMZN",
|
| 5 |
+
"GOOGL",
|
| 6 |
+
"NVDA",
|
| 7 |
+
"TSLA",
|
| 8 |
+
"AMD",
|
| 9 |
+
"INTC",
|
| 10 |
+
"JPM",
|
| 11 |
+
"BAC",
|
| 12 |
+
"V",
|
| 13 |
+
"MA"
|
| 14 |
+
]
|
bucket_edges.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
|
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|
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2.4239859580993652,
|
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|
| 104 |
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]
|
config.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"activation_function": "gelu_new",
|
| 3 |
+
"add_cross_attention": false,
|
| 4 |
+
"architectures": [
|
| 5 |
+
"GPT2LMHeadModel"
|
| 6 |
+
],
|
| 7 |
+
"attn_pdrop": 0.1,
|
| 8 |
+
"bos_token_id": 1,
|
| 9 |
+
"dtype": "float32",
|
| 10 |
+
"embd_pdrop": 0.1,
|
| 11 |
+
"eos_token_id": 2,
|
| 12 |
+
"initializer_range": 0.02,
|
| 13 |
+
"layer_norm_epsilon": 1e-05,
|
| 14 |
+
"model_type": "gpt2",
|
| 15 |
+
"n_ctx": 2082,
|
| 16 |
+
"n_embd": 384,
|
| 17 |
+
"n_head": 6,
|
| 18 |
+
"n_inner": null,
|
| 19 |
+
"n_layer": 6,
|
| 20 |
+
"n_positions": 2082,
|
| 21 |
+
"pad_token_id": 0,
|
| 22 |
+
"reorder_and_upcast_attn": false,
|
| 23 |
+
"resid_pdrop": 0.1,
|
| 24 |
+
"scale_attn_by_inverse_layer_idx": false,
|
| 25 |
+
"scale_attn_weights": true,
|
| 26 |
+
"summary_activation": null,
|
| 27 |
+
"summary_first_dropout": 0.1,
|
| 28 |
+
"summary_proj_to_labels": true,
|
| 29 |
+
"summary_type": "cls_index",
|
| 30 |
+
"summary_use_proj": true,
|
| 31 |
+
"tie_word_embeddings": true,
|
| 32 |
+
"transformers_version": "5.6.2",
|
| 33 |
+
"use_cache": false,
|
| 34 |
+
"vocab_size": 1216
|
| 35 |
+
}
|
cross_sectional_corr_generated.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
,AAPL,MSFT,AMZN,GOOGL,NVDA,TSLA,AMD,INTC,JPM,BAC,V,MA
|
| 2 |
+
AAPL,1.0,0.6723060011863708,0.5211983919143677,0.42777976393699646,0.3105679154396057,0.15275193750858307,0.09020064026117325,0.05684993788599968,0.027994271367788315,0.021539758890867233,0.0018611304694786668,0.00014955938968341798
|
| 3 |
+
MSFT,0.6723060011863708,1.0,0.740753710269928,0.5988911390304565,0.4051375389099121,0.19946546852588654,0.12246865034103394,0.07496435195207596,0.041361626237630844,0.03579115495085716,0.0038796490989625454,0.006104168947786093
|
| 4 |
+
AMZN,0.5211983919143677,0.740753710269928,1.0,0.7721667885780334,0.5105940699577332,0.25858888030052185,0.16144169867038727,0.09339627623558044,0.051841165870428085,0.04847245290875435,0.015083085745573044,0.013859635218977928
|
| 5 |
+
GOOGL,0.42777976393699646,0.5988911390304565,0.7721667885780334,1.0,0.635029137134552,0.3101363778114319,0.20397040247917175,0.12052255123853683,0.07821977138519287,0.07283712923526764,0.04090026021003723,0.03736479952931404
|
| 6 |
+
NVDA,0.3105679154396057,0.4051375389099121,0.5105940699577332,0.635029137134552,1.0,0.44570595026016235,0.278595894575119,0.16786691546440125,0.11481305956840515,0.10485804080963135,0.06077614799141884,0.057598281651735306
|
| 7 |
+
TSLA,0.15275193750858307,0.19946546852588654,0.25858888030052185,0.3101363778114319,0.44570595026016235,1.0,0.4601401388645172,0.2706546485424042,0.18775667250156403,0.17438025772571564,0.11574845016002655,0.10984478890895844
|
| 8 |
+
AMD,0.09020064026117325,0.12246865034103394,0.16144169867038727,0.20397040247917175,0.278595894575119,0.4601401388645172,1.0,0.5125625729560852,0.34511199593544006,0.31734904646873474,0.19516591727733612,0.18664193153381348
|
| 9 |
+
INTC,0.05684993788599968,0.07496435195207596,0.09339627623558044,0.12052255123853683,0.16786691546440125,0.2706546485424042,0.5125625729560852,1.0,0.588446855545044,0.5465589761734009,0.312430739402771,0.29470688104629517
|
| 10 |
+
JPM,0.027994271367788315,0.041361626237630844,0.051841165870428085,0.07821977138519287,0.11481305956840515,0.18775667250156403,0.34511199593544006,0.588446855545044,1.0,0.9245684146881104,0.5329838991165161,0.49864715337753296
|
| 11 |
+
BAC,0.021539758890867233,0.03579115495085716,0.04847245290875435,0.07283712923526764,0.10485804080963135,0.17438025772571564,0.31734904646873474,0.5465589761734009,0.9245684146881104,1.0,0.5616907477378845,0.5243045091629028
|
| 12 |
+
V,0.0018611304694786668,0.0038796490989625454,0.015083085745573044,0.04090026021003723,0.06077614799141884,0.11574845016002655,0.19516591727733612,0.312430739402771,0.5329838991165161,0.5616907477378845,1.0,0.920161783695221
|
| 13 |
+
MA,0.00014955938968341798,0.006104168947786093,0.013859635218977928,0.03736479952931404,0.057598281651735306,0.10984478890895844,0.18664193153381348,0.29470688104629517,0.49864715337753296,0.5243045091629028,0.920161783695221,1.0
|
cross_sectional_corr_real.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
,AAPL,MSFT,AMZN,GOOGL,NVDA,TSLA,AMD,INTC,JPM,BAC,V,MA
|
| 2 |
+
AAPL,1.0,0.6331244707107544,0.51563560962677,0.7108922600746155,0.5545589923858643,0.5535476207733154,0.5244247317314148,0.21973548829555511,0.3254808187484741,0.296897292137146,0.6087028384208679,0.5639088153839111
|
| 3 |
+
MSFT,0.6331244707107544,1.0,0.6599540114402771,0.7749960422515869,0.5495731830596924,0.6230116486549377,0.46573472023010254,0.48720842599868774,0.45291945338249207,0.311764121055603,0.6260378360748291,0.47891733050346375
|
| 4 |
+
AMZN,0.51563560962677,0.6599540114402771,1.0,0.6038300395011902,0.5262182950973511,0.5929338335990906,0.42031070590019226,0.8166924715042114,0.5714275240898132,0.5298638343811035,0.4197486639022827,0.4404708445072174
|
| 5 |
+
GOOGL,0.7108922600746155,0.7749960422515869,0.6038300395011902,1.0,0.5228630900382996,0.6676064133644104,0.5059135556221008,0.45712900161743164,0.39244410395622253,0.2839842736721039,0.5785690546035767,0.5194220542907715
|
| 6 |
+
NVDA,0.5545589923858643,0.5495731830596924,0.5262182950973511,0.5228630900382996,1.0,0.7413638830184937,0.6974919438362122,0.4451492726802826,0.18301637470722198,0.11316652595996857,0.3873818814754486,0.4405401945114136
|
| 7 |
+
TSLA,0.5535476207733154,0.6230116486549377,0.5929338335990906,0.6676064133644104,0.7413638830184937,1.0,0.626915693283081,0.5260854959487915,0.2714369297027588,0.18484577536582947,0.5772184729576111,0.4420454204082489
|
| 8 |
+
AMD,0.5244247317314148,0.46573472023010254,0.42031070590019226,0.5059135556221008,0.6974919438362122,0.626915693283081,1.0,0.3260938227176666,0.11072525382041931,0.11624810099601746,0.23918883502483368,0.18416988849639893
|
| 9 |
+
INTC,0.21973548829555511,0.48720842599868774,0.8166924715042114,0.45712900161743164,0.4451492726802826,0.5260854959487915,0.3260938227176666,1.0,0.587582528591156,0.5751133561134338,0.24537551403045654,0.28593382239341736
|
| 10 |
+
JPM,0.3254808187484741,0.45291945338249207,0.5714275240898132,0.39244410395622253,0.18301637470722198,0.2714369297027588,0.11072525382041931,0.587582528591156,1.0,0.7873843312263489,0.39742162823677063,0.378302663564682
|
| 11 |
+
BAC,0.296897292137146,0.311764121055603,0.5298638343811035,0.2839842736721039,0.11316652595996857,0.18484577536582947,0.11624810099601746,0.5751133561134338,0.7873843312263489,1.0,0.16922225058078766,0.11870864033699036
|
| 12 |
+
V,0.6087028384208679,0.6260378360748291,0.4197486639022827,0.5785690546035767,0.3873818814754486,0.5772184729576111,0.23918883502483368,0.24537551403045654,0.39742162823677063,0.16922225058078766,1.0,0.8636203408241272
|
| 13 |
+
MA,0.5639088153839111,0.47891733050346375,0.4404708445072174,0.5194220542907715,0.4405401945114136,0.4420454204082489,0.18416988849639893,0.28593382239341736,0.378302663564682,0.11870864033699036,0.8636203408241272,1.0
|
distribution_comparison.csv
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
series,metric,value
|
| 2 |
+
generated,mean,0.004333046730607748
|
| 3 |
+
generated,std,0.08561652898788452
|
| 4 |
+
generated,skew,-0.5086434483528137
|
| 5 |
+
generated,kurtosis,56.622493743896484
|
| 6 |
+
generated,q01,-0.2753317952156067
|
| 7 |
+
generated,q05,-0.037811942398548126
|
| 8 |
+
generated,q95,0.05145534127950668
|
| 9 |
+
generated,q99,0.33806970715522766
|
| 10 |
+
true,mean,-0.002802362898364663
|
| 11 |
+
true,std,0.030968399718403816
|
| 12 |
+
true,skew,-2.6303722858428955
|
| 13 |
+
true,kurtosis,23.258527755737305
|
| 14 |
+
true,q01,-0.09194755554199219
|
| 15 |
+
true,q05,-0.05170159786939621
|
| 16 |
+
true,q95,0.04157276824116707
|
| 17 |
+
true,q99,0.06143633648753166
|
generation_config.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
+
"do_sample": true,
|
| 3 |
+
"temperature": 1.0,
|
| 4 |
+
"top_p": 0.95,
|
| 5 |
+
"constrained_generation": true,
|
| 6 |
+
"max_new_tokens": 416
|
| 7 |
+
}
|
market_vocab.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
| 1 |
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{
|
| 2 |
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"special": {
|
| 3 |
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|
| 4 |
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"BOS": 1,
|
| 5 |
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"EOS": 2,
|
| 6 |
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"STEP": 3
|
| 7 |
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},
|
| 8 |
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"offset": 4,
|
| 9 |
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|
| 10 |
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"num_buckets": 101,
|
| 11 |
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|
| 12 |
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"token_formula": "token_id = offset + asset_id * num_buckets + bucket_id",
|
| 13 |
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"asset_list": [
|
| 14 |
+
"AAPL",
|
| 15 |
+
"MSFT",
|
| 16 |
+
"AMZN",
|
| 17 |
+
"GOOGL",
|
| 18 |
+
"NVDA",
|
| 19 |
+
"TSLA",
|
| 20 |
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"AMD",
|
| 21 |
+
"INTC",
|
| 22 |
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"JPM",
|
| 23 |
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"BAC",
|
| 24 |
+
"V",
|
| 25 |
+
"MA"
|
| 26 |
+
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|
| 27 |
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|
metrics.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,428 @@
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| 1 |
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version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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preprocess_config.json
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{
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training_config.json
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{
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|
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|
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|
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