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RESEARCH_RESOURCES.md
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| 1 |
+
# RTB Bidding Algorithm Comparison β Complete Research Resource List
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| 2 |
+
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| 3 |
+
> Generated: 2026-05-05 | Author: ML Intern for hamverbot
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| 4 |
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> Repository: https://huggingface.co/hamverbot/rtb-bidding-comparison
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| 5 |
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| 6 |
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---
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| 7 |
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| 8 |
+
## Table of Contents
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| 9 |
+
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| 10 |
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1. [Bidding Algorithms](#1-bidding-algorithms)
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| 11 |
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2. [CTR Prediction Models](#2-ctr-prediction-models)
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| 12 |
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3. [Clearing Price / Market Price Prediction](#3-clearing-price--market-price-prediction)
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| 13 |
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4. [Datasets](#4-datasets)
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| 14 |
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5. [Codebases & Implementations](#5-codebases--implementations)
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| 15 |
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6. [Benchmark Leaderboards](#6-benchmark-leaderboards)
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| 16 |
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7. [Recommended Architecture](#7-recommended-architecture)
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| 17 |
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| 18 |
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---
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| 19 |
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## 1. Bidding Algorithms
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| 21 |
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### 1.1 Lagrangian Dual + Online Gradient Descent (BEST MATCH)
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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| Property | Detail |
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| 25 |
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|----------|--------|
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| 26 |
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| **Paper** | "Learning to Bid in Repeated First-Price Auctions with Budgets" |
|
| 27 |
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| **Authors** | Qian Wang, Zongjun Yang, Xiaotie Deng, Yuqing Kong (2023) |
|
| 28 |
+
| **Venue** | NeurIPS 2023 (implied) |
|
| 29 |
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| **arXiv** | [2304.13477](https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.13477) |
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| 30 |
+
| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2304.13477 |
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| 31 |
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| **Algorithm** | DualOGD β Lagrangian dual multiplier updated by online error gradient descent |
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| 32 |
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| **Auction Type** | First-price (also handles second-price) |
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| 33 |
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| **Constraints** | Budget cap: total spend β€ ΟT |
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| 34 |
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| **Regret Bound** | Γ(βT) for both full-information and one-sided feedback |
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| 35 |
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| **Key Formula** | Ξ»_{t+1} = Proj_{Ξ»>0}(Ξ»_t β Ρ·(Ο β cΜ_t(b_t))) |
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| 36 |
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| **Bid Rule** | b_t = argmax_b (rΜ_t(v_t, b) β Ξ»_tΒ·cΜ_t(b)) |
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| 37 |
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| **Prediction Models Needed** | CTR predictor (for v_t), empirical CDF of competing bids (GΜ) |
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| 38 |
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| **Why It's The Best Match** | You explicitly described "Lagrangian dual multiplier and updating the dual variables online by error gradient descent" β this is exactly Algorithm 1, line 7. |
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| 39 |
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### 1.2 Dual Mirror Descent (Second-Price)
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| 41 |
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| 42 |
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| Property | Detail |
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| 43 |
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|----------|--------|
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| 44 |
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| **Paper** | "The Best of Many Worlds: Dual Mirror Descent for Online Allocation Problems" |
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| 45 |
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| **Authors** | Santiago Balseiro, Haihao Lu, Vahab Mirrokni (2020) |
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| 46 |
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| **Venue** | Operations Research (2023) / NeurIPS 2020 Workshop |
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| 47 |
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| **arXiv** | [2011.10124](https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.10124) |
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| 48 |
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| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2011.10124 |
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| 49 |
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| **Citations** | 135+ |
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| 50 |
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| **Algorithm** | Dual mirror descent β generalizes OGD with Bregman divergences |
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| 51 |
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| **Auction Type** | Second-price (truthful) |
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| 52 |
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| **Bid Rule** | b_t = v_t / (1 + ΞΌ_t) |
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| 53 |
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| **Dual Update** | ΞΌ_{t+1} = Proj(ΞΌ_t β Ξ·Β·(Ο β payment_t)) |
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| 54 |
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| **Key Insight** | In second-price auctions, you don't need a market price model. The dual multiplier naturally paces spending. |
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| 55 |
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| **Prediction Models** | CTR predictor only (no market price model needed) |
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| 56 |
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| 57 |
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### 1.3 Dual Descent with RoS + Budget (Multi-Constraint)
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| 58 |
+
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| 59 |
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| Property | Detail |
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| 60 |
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|----------|--------|
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| 61 |
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| **Paper** | "Online Bidding Algorithms for Return-on-Spend Constrained Advertisers" |
|
| 62 |
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| **Authors** | Zhe Feng, Swati Padmanabhan, Di Wang (2022) |
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| 63 |
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| **Venue** | ICML 2022 |
|
| 64 |
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| **arXiv** | [2208.13713](https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.13713) |
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| 65 |
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| **Citations** | 38+ |
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| 66 |
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| **Algorithm** | Two dual variables: Ξ» for RoS, ΞΌ for budget |
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| 67 |
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| **Bid Rule** | b_t = ((1+Ξ»_t)/(ΞΌ_t+Ξ»_t)) Β· v_t |
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| 68 |
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| **Updates** | Ξ»_{t+1} = Ξ»_tΒ·exp(-Ξ±Β·(v_tΒ·x_t(b_t) β p_t(b_t))) [multiplicative]; ΞΌ_{t+1} = Proj(ΞΌ_t β Ξ·Β·(Ο β p_t(b_t))) [sub-gradient] |
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| 69 |
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| **Key Insight** | Can be adapted for your "ensure k% spend" floor β use second dual variable to enforce minimum spend |
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| 70 |
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| **Prediction Models** | CTR predictor (v_t), payment observed |
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| 71 |
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| 72 |
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### 1.4 RLB β Reinforcement Learning Bidding
|
| 73 |
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| 74 |
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| Property | Detail |
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| 75 |
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|----------|--------|
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| 76 |
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| **Paper** | "Real-Time Bidding by Reinforcement Learning in Display Advertising" |
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| 77 |
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| **Authors** | Han Cai, Kan Ren, Weinan Zhang, Kleanthis Malialis, Jun Wang, Yong Yu, Defeng Guo (2017) |
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| 78 |
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| **Venue** | WSDM 2017 |
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| 79 |
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| **arXiv** | [1701.02490](https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.02490) |
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| 80 |
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| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/1701.02490 |
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| 81 |
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| **GitHub** | https://github.com/han-cai/rlb-dp (188 stars) |
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| 82 |
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| **Algorithm** | MDP + Dynamic Programming + Neural value function approximation |
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| 83 |
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| **State** | (t remaining auctions, b remaining budget, x feature vector) |
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| 84 |
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| **Action** | bid price a β [0, b] |
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| 85 |
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| **Results** | +22% clicks over linear bidding at tight budgets on iPinYou |
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| 86 |
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| **Prediction Models** | CTR ΞΈ(x) + market price distribution m(Ξ΄, x) |
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| 87 |
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| **Key Insight** | Foundational; explicitly models the budget-depletion tradeoff via DP. Superseded by dual methods for budget pacing but still influential. |
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| 88 |
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| 89 |
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### 1.5 HiBid β Industrial Hierarchical Dual-RL
|
| 90 |
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|
| 91 |
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| Property | Detail |
|
| 92 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 93 |
+
| **Paper** | "HiBid: A Cross-Channel Constrained Bidding System with Budget Allocation by Hierarchical Offline Deep Reinforcement Learning" |
|
| 94 |
+
| **Authors** | Yuhang Wang et al. (2023) |
|
| 95 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2312.17503](https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.17503) |
|
| 96 |
+
| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2312.17503 |
|
| 97 |
+
| **Algorithm** | High-level RL budget allocation + Low-level Ξ»-parameterized bidding |
|
| 98 |
+
| **Scale** | 64K advertisers, 70M requests/day, 4 channels, deployed at Meituan |
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| 99 |
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| **Results** | Outperforms RL-based baselines (R-BCQ, BCQ, CQL) on clicks, CPC, CSR, ROI |
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| 100 |
+
|
| 101 |
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### 1.6 Contextual First-Price Extension (Very Recent!)
|
| 102 |
+
|
| 103 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 104 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 105 |
+
| **Paper** | "Online Bidding for Contextual First-Price Auctions with Budgets under One-Sided Information Feedback" |
|
| 106 |
+
| **Authors** | (2026) |
|
| 107 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2603.07207](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07207) |
|
| 108 |
+
| **Algorithm** | Dual OGD + quantile-based contextual censored regression |
|
| 109 |
+
| **Key Innovation** | Extends Wang et al. (2023) to handle contextual (feature-based) auctions with a novel quantile trick for censored data |
|
| 110 |
+
| **Regret** | Γ(βT) in contextual first-price auctions |
|
| 111 |
+
|
| 112 |
+
### 1.7 Unified View of Lagrangian Dual Multiplier Methods
|
| 113 |
+
|
| 114 |
+
All dual methods follow the same template:
|
| 115 |
+
|
| 116 |
+
```
|
| 117 |
+
For each auction t:
|
| 118 |
+
1. Observe value v_t (from CTR prediction Γ click value)
|
| 119 |
+
2. Compute bid: b_t = f(v_t, dual_multiplier_t)
|
| 120 |
+
3. Observe outcome: payment c_t (if won) or 0 (if lost)
|
| 121 |
+
4. Compute gradient: g_t = Ο β c_t
|
| 122 |
+
5. Update multiplier: Ξ»_{t+1} = Proj_{Ξ»β₯0}(Ξ»_t β Ξ·Β·g_t)
|
| 123 |
+
```
|
| 124 |
+
|
| 125 |
+
| Method | Auction | Bid Function f(v, Ξ») |
|
| 126 |
+
|--------|---------|----------------------|
|
| 127 |
+
| Wang 2023 | First-price | argmax_b (rΜ(v,b) β λ·cΜ(b)) |
|
| 128 |
+
| Balseiro 2020 | Second-price | v / (1+Ξ») |
|
| 129 |
+
| Feng 2022 | Second-price | ((1+Ξ»_RoS)/(Ξ»_RoS+Ξ»_budget)) Β· v |
|
| 130 |
+
|
| 131 |
+
### 1.8 Additional Papers (Supplementary)
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
| Paper | Key Idea | arXiv |
|
| 134 |
+
|-------|----------|-------|
|
| 135 |
+
| Dynamic Budget Throttling | Throttle participation rate to control spend | 2207.04690 |
|
| 136 |
+
| No-Regret Learning in Repeated First-Price Auctions | General no-regret framework for first-price | 2205.14572 |
|
| 137 |
+
| Robust Budget Pacing with a Single Sample | Near-optimal regret from 1 sample per distribution | 2302.02006 |
|
| 138 |
+
| Learning to Bid Optimally in Adversarial First-Price | Adversarial (non-i.i.d.) setting | 2007.04568 |
|
| 139 |
+
| Optimal No-Regret Learning in Repeated FPA | Minimax optimal bounds | 2003.09795 |
|
| 140 |
+
| Multi-Channel Autobidding with Budget and ROI | Per-channel optimization optimality | 2302.01523 |
|
| 141 |
+
| Leveraging the Hints: Adaptive Bidding | Uses hints/forecasts for better bidding | 2211.06358 |
|
| 142 |
+
| Adaptive Bidding under Non-stationarity | Handles distribution shift | 2505.02796 |
|
| 143 |
+
| Joint Value Estimation and Bidding | Simultaneous CTR learning + bidding | 2502.17292 |
|
| 144 |
+
| No-Regret is not enough! | Adaptive regret for constrained bandits | 2405.06575 |
|
| 145 |
+
| AIGB: Generative Auto-bidding | Diffusion models for bid trajectory generation | 2405.16141 |
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
### Two-Sided Budget Constraint (Your Specific Need)
|
| 148 |
+
|
| 149 |
+
You need: **maximize clicks s.t. spend β€ B AND spend β₯ kΒ·B**.
|
| 150 |
+
|
| 151 |
+
This requires two dual variables:
|
| 152 |
+
- **ΞΌ** for the budget cap: ΞΌ_{t+1} = Proj(ΞΌ_t β Ξ·βΒ·(Ο β spend_t))
|
| 153 |
+
- **Ξ½** for the spend floor: Ξ½_{t+1} = Proj(Ξ½_t β Ξ·βΒ·(spend_t β kΟ))
|
| 154 |
+
|
| 155 |
+
Bid function: b_t = v_t Β· f(ΞΌ_t, Ξ½_t) where f decreases with ΞΌ and increases with Ξ½.
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
---
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
## 2. CTR Prediction Models
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
### 2.1 FinalMLP (RECOMMENDED β Best AUC, Fastest Inference)
|
| 162 |
+
|
| 163 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 164 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 165 |
+
| **Paper** | "FinalMLP: An Enhanced Two-Stream MLP Model for CTR Prediction" |
|
| 166 |
+
| **Authors** | Kelong Mao, Jieming Zhu, Liangcai Su, Guohao Cai, Yuru Li, Zhenhua Dong (2023) |
|
| 167 |
+
| **Venue** | AAAI 2023 |
|
| 168 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2304.00902](https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.00902) |
|
| 169 |
+
| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2304.00902 |
|
| 170 |
+
| **Datasets** | reczoo/Criteo_x1, reczoo/Avazu_x1, reczoo/MovielensLatest_x1, reczoo/Frappe_x1 |
|
| 171 |
+
| **Criteo AUC** | **0.8149** |
|
| 172 |
+
| **Avazu AUC** | **0.7666** |
|
| 173 |
+
| **Architecture** | Two-stream MLP: two independent MLP towers + feature gating (soft selection) + bilinear fusion |
|
| 174 |
+
| **Inference Speed** | Fastest among SOTA (pure MLP, ~400-dim hidden, no attention) |
|
| 175 |
+
| **Why Best for RTB** | Pure feed-forward, <1ms inference, easy to deploy |
|
| 176 |
+
|
| 177 |
+
### 2.2 GDCN β Gated Deep Cross Network
|
| 178 |
+
|
| 179 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 180 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 181 |
+
| **Paper** | "Towards Deeper, Lighter and Interpretable Cross Network for CTR Prediction" |
|
| 182 |
+
| **Authors** | Fangye Wang, Hansu Gu, Dongsheng Li, Tun Lu, Peng Zhang, Ning Gu (2023) |
|
| 183 |
+
| **Venue** | CIKM 2023 |
|
| 184 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2311.04635](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.04635) |
|
| 185 |
+
| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2311.04635 |
|
| 186 |
+
| **Criteo AUC** | **0.8161** (own split β not directly comparable) |
|
| 187 |
+
| **Architecture** | DCNv2 + learned information gate per cross layer + Field-level Dimension Optimization (FDO) |
|
| 188 |
+
| **Key Insight** | Gate filters noisy interactions; FDO compresses embeddings 60%+. Good for memory-constrained RTB. |
|
| 189 |
+
|
| 190 |
+
### 2.3 DCNv2 β Industry Workhorse
|
| 191 |
+
|
| 192 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 193 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 194 |
+
| **Paper** | "DCN V2: Improved Deep & Cross Network and Practical Lessons for Web-scale Learning to Rank Systems" |
|
| 195 |
+
| **Authors** | Ruoxi Wang, Rakesh Shivanna, Derek Z. Cheng, Sagar Jain, Dong Lin, Lichan Hong, Ed H. Chi (2021) |
|
| 196 |
+
| **Venue** | WWW 2021 |
|
| 197 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2008.13535](https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.13535) |
|
| 198 |
+
| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2008.13535 |
|
| 199 |
+
| **Criteo AUC** | **0.8142-0.8144** (retuned) |
|
| 200 |
+
| **Architecture** | Embedding β parallel CrossNetV2 + DNN β concat β sigmoid |
|
| 201 |
+
| **Key Insight** | Mixture-of-Experts-style low-rank decomposition. Battle-tested at Google. |
|
| 202 |
+
|
| 203 |
+
### 2.4 DeepFM β Simple, Strong Baseline
|
| 204 |
+
|
| 205 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 206 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 207 |
+
| **Paper** | "DeepFM: A Factorization-Machine based Neural Network for CTR Prediction" |
|
| 208 |
+
| **Authors** | Huifeng Guo, Ruiming Tang, Yunming Ye, Zhenguo Li, Xiuqiang He (2017) |
|
| 209 |
+
| **Venue** | IJCAI 2017 |
|
| 210 |
+
| **Criteo AUC** | **0.8138** (retuned) |
|
| 211 |
+
| **Architecture** | Shared embedding β parallel FM (2nd-order) + DNN β sum β sigmoid |
|
| 212 |
+
| **Key Insight** | Shared embedding between FM and DNN is the secret. End-to-end, no pre-training. |
|
| 213 |
+
|
| 214 |
+
### 2.5 FCN β Fusing Cross Network (Most Recent)
|
| 215 |
+
|
| 216 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 217 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 218 |
+
| **Paper** | "FCN: Fusing Exponential and Linear Cross Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction" |
|
| 219 |
+
| **Authors** | (2024) |
|
| 220 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2407.13349](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13349) |
|
| 221 |
+
| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2407.13349 |
|
| 222 |
+
| **Architecture** | Two explicit cross sub-networks: LCN (linear, order grows linearly) + ECN (exponential, order doubles per layer) |
|
| 223 |
+
| **Key Insight** | No DNN needed β all interactions explicit. 50% fewer params, 23% lower latency than DCNv2. |
|
| 224 |
+
| **Caveat** | Newer paper with less community validation. GitHub: https://github.com/salmon1802/FCN |
|
| 225 |
+
|
| 226 |
+
### 2.6 BARS Meta-Finding
|
| 227 |
+
|
| 228 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 229 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 230 |
+
| **Paper** | "BARS-CTR: Open Benchmarking for Click-Through Rate Prediction" |
|
| 231 |
+
| **Authors** | Jieming Zhu, Jinyang Liu, Shuai Yang, Qi Zhang, Xiuqiang He (2021) |
|
| 232 |
+
| **Venue** | CIKM 2021 |
|
| 233 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2009.05794](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.05794) |
|
| 234 |
+
| **HF Papers** | https://huggingface.co/papers/2009.05794 |
|
| 235 |
+
| **Key Result** | After 7,000+ experiments and 12,000 GPU hours: **differences between SOTA deep CTR models are surprisingly small** (~0.1-0.3% AUC). Architecture choice matters less than data preprocessing, hyperparameter tuning, and feature engineering. All models converge to ~0.814 AUC on Criteo after proper tuning. |
|
| 236 |
+
|
| 237 |
+
### 2.7 Additional CTR Papers
|
| 238 |
+
|
| 239 |
+
| Paper | Key Idea | arXiv |
|
| 240 |
+
|-------|----------|-------|
|
| 241 |
+
| DIN (KDD 2018) | Attention over user behavior sequence | 1706.06978 |
|
| 242 |
+
| DIEN (AAAI 2019) | Interest evolution with GRU + attention | 1809.03672 |
|
| 243 |
+
| xDeepFM (KDD 2018) | Compressed Interaction Network (CIN) for vector-wise crosses | 1803.05170 |
|
| 244 |
+
| AutoInt (CIKM 2019) | Multi-head self-attention for feature interactions | 1810.11921 |
|
| 245 |
+
| DLRM (Meta, 2019) | Specialized for recommendation: MLP for dense + embedding for sparse | 1906.00091 |
|
| 246 |
+
| Wide & Deep (Google, 2016) | Memorization (wide) + generalization (deep) | 1606.07792 |
|
| 247 |
+
| FTRL-Proximal (KDD 2013) | "Ad Click Prediction: a View from the Trenches" β online learning for linear CTR | β |
|
| 248 |
+
| Streaming CTR (2023) | Online CTR with non-stationary data | 2307.07509 |
|
| 249 |
+
|
| 250 |
+
### 2.8 Latency Considerations for RTB
|
| 251 |
+
|
| 252 |
+
| Model | Architecture | Inference Speed | RTB-Suitable |
|
| 253 |
+
|-------|-------------|-----------------|--------------|
|
| 254 |
+
| **FinalMLP** | Pure MLP | βββββ (<1ms) | β
Best |
|
| 255 |
+
| **DCNv2** | CrossNet + DNN | ββββ | β
|
|
| 256 |
+
| **GDCN** | Gated Cross + DNN | ββββ | β
|
|
| 257 |
+
| **DeepFM** | FM + DNN | ββββ | β
|
|
| 258 |
+
| **FCN** | LCN + ECN (no DNN) | ββββ | β
|
|
| 259 |
+
| DIN | Attention (user history) | ββ | β Too slow |
|
| 260 |
+
| DIEN | GRU + attention | β | β Too slow |
|
| 261 |
+
| AutoInt | Multi-head attention | ββ | β Too slow |
|
| 262 |
+
|
| 263 |
+
---
|
| 264 |
+
|
| 265 |
+
## 3. Clearing Price / Market Price Prediction
|
| 266 |
+
|
| 267 |
+
### 3.1 Non-Parametric Empirical CDF (RECOMMENDED BASELINE)
|
| 268 |
+
|
| 269 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 270 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 271 |
+
| **Source** | Wang et al. (2023), Algorithm 1, Section 3.1 |
|
| 272 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2304.13477](https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.13477) |
|
| 273 |
+
| **Method** | Maintain array of observed competing bids d_s, estimate GΜ_t(b) = (1/(t-1))βπ{b β₯ d_s} |
|
| 274 |
+
| **Win Probability** | P(win\|b) = GΜ_t(b) |
|
| 275 |
+
| **Expected Cost** | E[cost\|win,b] = (1/GΜ_t(b)) Β· mean of {d_s : d_s β€ b} |
|
| 276 |
+
| **Pros** | No model training needed, theoretically sound (Γ(βT) regret), handles distribution shift naturally |
|
| 277 |
+
| **Cons** | No context/features, cold-start when t is small |
|
| 278 |
+
|
| 279 |
+
### 3.2 Censored Linear Regression (Wu et al. 2015)
|
| 280 |
+
|
| 281 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 282 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 283 |
+
| **Paper** | "Predicting Winning Price in Real Time Bidding with Censored Data" |
|
| 284 |
+
| **Authors** | Wush Chi-Hsuan Wu, Mi-Yen Yeh, Ming-Syan Chen (2015) |
|
| 285 |
+
| **Venue** | KDD 2015 |
|
| 286 |
+
| **Citations** | ~101 |
|
| 287 |
+
| **Method** | Tobit-like model: log(market_price) = Ξ²Β·x + Ξ΅, Ξ΅ ~ N(0, ΟΒ²) |
|
| 288 |
+
| **Key Insight** | Properly handles censoring via likelihood: winning auctions contribute f(price\|x), losing auctions contribute S(bid\|x) |
|
| 289 |
+
| **Pros** | Contextual, simple, computationally cheap |
|
| 290 |
+
| **Cons** | Linear model β limited capacity for complex interactions |
|
| 291 |
+
|
| 292 |
+
### 3.3 Deep Censored Learning / Survival Analysis
|
| 293 |
+
|
| 294 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 295 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 296 |
+
| **Paper** | "Deep Censored Learning of the Winning Price" (Zhu et al., WWW 2019) |
|
| 297 |
+
| **Method** | Neural network trained with censored survival loss |
|
| 298 |
+
| **Loss** | Winning: -log f(price\|x); Losing: -log S(bid\|x) |
|
| 299 |
+
| **Library** | **TorchSurv** ([arXiv:2404.10761](https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.10761), Novartis, 200β
GitHub) |
|
| 300 |
+
| **TorchSurv URL** | https://github.com/Novartis/torchsurv |
|
| 301 |
+
| **TorchSurv Docs** | https://opensource.nibr.com/torchsurv/ |
|
| 302 |
+
| **PyPI** | `pip install torchsurv` |
|
| 303 |
+
| **Key Insight** | Proper survival framework handles censoring. Win = exact price observed (uncensored). Loss = only lower bound (censored at bid). |
|
| 304 |
+
| **Architecture** | Deep FC predicting either hazard rate Ξ»(t\|x) (Cox PH) or distribution parameters (Weibull/log-normal AFT) |
|
| 305 |
+
|
| 306 |
+
```python
|
| 307 |
+
# TorchSurv pattern for market price:
|
| 308 |
+
from torchsurv.loss import cox
|
| 309 |
+
log_hazard = model(features) # shape (batch,)
|
| 310 |
+
# event=1 if won, 0 if lost (censored)
|
| 311 |
+
# time = market_price if won, bid if lost
|
| 312 |
+
loss = cox.neg_partial_log_likelihood(log_hazard, event, time)
|
| 313 |
+
```
|
| 314 |
+
|
| 315 |
+
### 3.4 Win Probability Neural Network (Simplest ML)
|
| 316 |
+
|
| 317 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 318 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 319 |
+
| **Method** | Direct binary classification: P(win\|bid_price, features) |
|
| 320 |
+
| **Pros** | Dead simple, works with standard BCELoss |
|
| 321 |
+
| **Cons** | Ignores censored price info when you win β only uses binary win/loss signal |
|
| 322 |
+
| **Input** | features + bid_price β sigmoid |
|
| 323 |
+
|
| 324 |
+
### 3.5 Parametric Distribution Fitting
|
| 325 |
+
|
| 326 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 327 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 328 |
+
| **Paper** | Referenced in RLB (Cai et al. 2017) β "Functional Bid Landscape Forecasting" (ECML-PKDD 2016) |
|
| 329 |
+
| **Method** | Fit log-normal or gamma distribution to observed winning prices; predict parameters from features using GBDT |
|
| 330 |
+
| **Pros** | Parametric assumptions reduce variance |
|
| 331 |
+
| **Cons** | Distribution assumption may not hold; doesn't properly handle censoring |
|
| 332 |
+
|
| 333 |
+
### 3.6 Contextual Quantile-Based (2026)
|
| 334 |
+
|
| 335 |
+
| Property | Detail |
|
| 336 |
+
|----------|--------|
|
| 337 |
+
| **Paper** | "Online Bidding for Contextual First-Price Auctions with Budgets under One-Sided Information Feedback" |
|
| 338 |
+
| **arXiv** | [2603.07207](https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07207) |
|
| 339 |
+
| **Method** | Models competing bid as d_t = Ξ±Β·x_t + z_t (linear contextual); quantile-based estimator for Ξ± |
|
| 340 |
+
| **Key Trick** | Splits samples by bid quantile and exploits identifiable conditional quantiles to circumvent full censoring |
|
| 341 |
+
| **Pros** | Theoretical guarantees in contextual setting |
|
| 342 |
+
| **Cons** | Linear contextual model only; very recent |
|
| 343 |
+
|
| 344 |
+
### 3.7 Comparison Summary
|
| 345 |
+
|
| 346 |
+
| Method | Contextual? | Handles Censoring? | Model Training? | Complexity |
|
| 347 |
+
|--------|-------------|-------------------|-----------------|------------|
|
| 348 |
+
| Empirical CDF | β | N/A (full info) | None | Minimal |
|
| 349 |
+
| Censored Linear Reg | β
| β
(proper likelihood) | Linear model | Low |
|
| 350 |
+
| Deep Survival (TorchSurv) | β
| β
(proper likelihood) | Neural net | Medium |
|
| 351 |
+
| Win Prob Classifier | β
| β (binary only) | Neural net | Low |
|
| 352 |
+
| Parametric (log-normal) | Optional | β | GBDT | Medium |
|
| 353 |
+
| Quantile Censored | β
| β
(quantile trick) | Linear | Medium-High |
|
| 354 |
+
|
| 355 |
+
---
|
| 356 |
+
|
| 357 |
+
## 4. Datasets
|
| 358 |
+
|
| 359 |
+
### 4.1 CTR Prediction Datasets
|
| 360 |
+
|
| 361 |
+
| Dataset | HF Hub Path | Size | Fields | Label | Verified |
|
| 362 |
+
|---------|------------|------|--------|-------|----------|
|
| 363 |
+
| **Criteo_x4** | `reczoo/Criteo_x4` | 45.8M rows, 5.6GB | 13 dense (I1-I13) + 26 categorical (C1-C26) | `Label` (0/1) | β
|
|
| 364 |
+
| **Avazu_x4** | `reczoo/Avazu_x4` | 40.4M rows, 1.8GB | 22 fields (mixed) | `click` (0/1) | β
|
|
| 365 |
+
| Criteo_x1 | `reczoo/Criteo_x1` | ~11M rows | Same as x4 | `Label` | β
|
|
| 366 |
+
| Avazu_x1 | `reczoo/Avazu_x1` | ~10M rows | Same as x4 | `click` | β
|
|
| 367 |
+
|
| 368 |
+
**Standard split**: 80% train / 10% val / 10% test (BARS protocol).
|
| 369 |
+
|
| 370 |
+
### 4.2 RTB Bidding Datasets
|
| 371 |
+
|
| 372 |
+
| Dataset | Source | Size | Format | Availability |
|
| 373 |
+
|---------|--------|------|--------|-------------|
|
| 374 |
+
| **iPinYou** | data.computational-advertising.org | 19.5M impressions, 9 campaigns, 10 days (2013) | Bid logs with market price | External download only (NOT on HF Hub) |
|
| 375 |
+
| **YOYI** | Various academic mirrors | ~400M records | Bid logs | External download only |
|
| 376 |
+
|
| 377 |
+
**iPinYou format**: `(click, paying_price, bid_price, slot_id, user_tags, ...)` β already includes market price info needed for bidding simulation.
|
| 378 |
+
|
| 379 |
+
**Key Gap**: No RTB bid-log datasets on HuggingFace Hub. Criteo/Avazu have click labels but no bid/price columns β they can only be used for CTR training and require synthetic price generation for bidding evaluation.
|
| 380 |
+
|
| 381 |
+
### 4.3 Data Requirements for Each Algorithm
|
| 382 |
+
|
| 383 |
+
| Algorithm | Needs from Dataset |
|
| 384 |
+
|-----------|-------------------|
|
| 385 |
+
| Dual OGD (Wang) | click labels (CTR training) + competing bids (or synthetic prices for simulation) |
|
| 386 |
+
| Dual Mirror Descent (Balseiro) | click labels + auction payment (second-price) |
|
| 387 |
+
| RLB (Cai) | click labels + market prices + impression features |
|
| 388 |
+
| CTR models (all) | click labels + features (Criteo/Avazu: β
) |
|
| 389 |
+
| Clearing price models | observed prices (won auctions) + bids (lost auctions) |
|
| 390 |
+
|
| 391 |
+
---
|
| 392 |
+
|
| 393 |
+
## 5. Codebases & Implementations
|
| 394 |
+
|
| 395 |
+
### 5.1 CTR Model Libraries
|
| 396 |
+
|
| 397 |
+
| Library | URL | Models | Framework | Notes |
|
| 398 |
+
|---------|-----|--------|-----------|-------|
|
| 399 |
+
| **FuxiCTR** | https://github.com/reczoo/FuxiCTR | 40+ (FinalMLP, DeepFM, DCNv2, GDCN, FCN, xDeepFM, AutoInt) | PyTorch | Config-driven (YAML). Used by all SOTA benchmark papers. |
|
| 400 |
+
| **DeepCTR-Torch** | https://github.com/shenweichen/DeepCTR-Torch | 20+ (DeepFM, DCN, DIN, DIEN, xDeepFM) | PyTorch | Simpler API (Python class). Good for quick prototyping. |
|
| 401 |
+
| **TorchSurv** | https://github.com/Novartis/torchsurv | Cox PH, Weibull AFT, DeepSurv, DeepHit | PyTorch | Deep survival analysis for clearing price. |
|
| 402 |
+
| **BARS** | https://github.com/openbenchmark/BARS | Benchmarking | β | Standardized evaluation pipeline. 389β
|
|
| 403 |
+
|
| 404 |
+
### 5.2 Bidding Algorithm Implementations
|
| 405 |
+
|
| 406 |
+
| Repo | URL | Algorithms | Notes |
|
| 407 |
+
|------|-----|------------|-------|
|
| 408 |
+
| **rlb-dp** | https://github.com/han-cai/rlb-dp | RLB (MDP + DP) | 188 stars. Original implementation of RL for RTB. |
|
| 409 |
+
| **budget_constrained_bidding** | https://github.com/dingmu365/budget_constrained_bidding | Budget-constrained RTB | Contains multiple budget-constrained bidding algorithms. |
|
| 410 |
+
| **budget_constrained_bidding** (fork) | https://github.com/GinNie23/budget_constrained_bidding | Same | Fork with modifications. |
|
| 411 |
+
| **Budget_Constrained_Bidding** | https://github.com/venkatacrc/Budget_Constrained_Bidding | Same | Another implementation. |
|
| 412 |
+
| **hamverbot/rtb-bidding-comparison** | https://huggingface.co/hamverbot/rtb-bidding-comparison | DualOGD, Linear, ORTB, Threshold, MPC | **Your repo** β already has a working comparison framework! |
|
| 413 |
+
|
| 414 |
+
### 5.3 FuxiCTR Quick Start
|
| 415 |
+
|
| 416 |
+
```bash
|
| 417 |
+
pip install fuxictr
|
| 418 |
+
```
|
| 419 |
+
|
| 420 |
+
```yaml
|
| 421 |
+
# config/criteo_finalmlp.yaml
|
| 422 |
+
dataset_id: Criteo_x4
|
| 423 |
+
model: FinalMLP
|
| 424 |
+
embedding_dim: 10
|
| 425 |
+
hidden_units: [400, 400, 400]
|
| 426 |
+
batch_size: 4096
|
| 427 |
+
learning_rate: 1e-3
|
| 428 |
+
epochs: 10
|
| 429 |
+
metrics: [auc, logloss]
|
| 430 |
+
```
|
| 431 |
+
|
| 432 |
+
```python
|
| 433 |
+
from fuxictr import autotuner
|
| 434 |
+
autotuner.run("config/criteo_finalmlp.yaml", "Criteo_x4", "FinalMLP")
|
| 435 |
+
```
|
| 436 |
+
|
| 437 |
+
### 5.4 DeepCTR-Torch Quick Start
|
| 438 |
+
|
| 439 |
+
```bash
|
| 440 |
+
pip install deepctr-torch
|
| 441 |
+
```
|
| 442 |
+
|
| 443 |
+
```python
|
| 444 |
+
from deepctr_torch.models import DeepFM
|
| 445 |
+
from deepctr_torch.inputs import SparseFeat, DenseFeat
|
| 446 |
+
|
| 447 |
+
sparse_features = [SparseFeat(f, vocab_size=df[f].nunique(), embedding_dim=10)
|
| 448 |
+
for f in categorical_cols]
|
| 449 |
+
dense_features = [DenseFeat(f, 1) for f in numerical_cols]
|
| 450 |
+
|
| 451 |
+
model = DeepFM(linear_feature_columns=sparse_features + dense_features,
|
| 452 |
+
dnn_feature_columns=sparse_features + dense_features,
|
| 453 |
+
dnn_hidden_units=(400, 400, 400), device='cuda')
|
| 454 |
+
model.compile('adam', 'binary_crossentropy', metrics=['auc'])
|
| 455 |
+
model.fit(train_input, train_labels, batch_size=4096, epochs=10)
|
| 456 |
+
```
|
| 457 |
+
|
| 458 |
+
---
|
| 459 |
+
|
| 460 |
+
## 6. Benchmark Leaderboards
|
| 461 |
+
|
| 462 |
+
| Leaderboard | URL | Description |
|
| 463 |
+
|-------------|-----|-------------|
|
| 464 |
+
| **BARS CTR Criteo_x4** | https://openbenchmark.github.io/BARS/CTR/leaderboard/criteo_x4.html | Definite CTR benchmark β 24 models compared |
|
| 465 |
+
| **BARS CTR Criteo_x1** | https://openbenchmark.github.io/BARS/CTR/leaderboard/criteo_x1.html | Smaller Criteo subset |
|
| 466 |
+
| **BARS CTR Avazu** | https://openbenchmark.github.io/BARS/CTR/leaderboard/avazu_x4.html | Avazu benchmark |
|
| 467 |
+
| **BARS Main** | https://openbenchmark.github.io/BARS | Full recommender systems benchmark |
|
| 468 |
+
|
| 469 |
+
**Top Criteo_x4 AUC scores (from BARS):**
|
| 470 |
+
- FinalMLP: 0.8149
|
| 471 |
+
- DCNv2: 0.8142
|
| 472 |
+
- DeepFM: 0.8138
|
| 473 |
+
- xDeepFM: 0.8136
|
| 474 |
+
- AutoInt+: 0.8134
|
| 475 |
+
|
| 476 |
+
Key takeaway: Top 5 models are within 0.15% AUC of each other.
|
| 477 |
+
|
| 478 |
+
---
|
| 479 |
+
|
| 480 |
+
## 7. Recommended Architecture
|
| 481 |
+
|
| 482 |
+
### For Your Problem: "Lagrangian Dual Multiplier with Online Error Gradient Descent"
|
| 483 |
+
|
| 484 |
+
```
|
| 485 |
+
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
|
| 486 |
+
β BIDDING ALGORITHM β
|
| 487 |
+
β β
|
| 488 |
+
β Dual OGD (Wang et al. 2023) β
|
| 489 |
+
β Ξ»_{t+1} = Proj(Ξ»_t - Ρ·(Ο - cΜ_t(b_t))) β
|
| 490 |
+
β b_t = argmax_b (rΜ_t(v_t, b) - Ξ»_tΒ·cΜ_t(b)) β
|
| 491 |
+
β β
|
| 492 |
+
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 493 |
+
β PREDICTION MODELS β
|
| 494 |
+
β β
|
| 495 |
+
β ββββββββββββββββββββ ββββββββββββββββββββββββ β
|
| 496 |
+
β β CTR Predictor β β Clearing Price Est. οΏ½οΏ½οΏ½ β
|
| 497 |
+
β β (FinalMLP) β β (Empirical CDF β β
|
| 498 |
+
β β β β OR TorchSurv) β β
|
| 499 |
+
β β v_t = pCTR Γ V β β GΜ(b) = P(win | b) β β
|
| 500 |
+
β ββββββββββββββββββββ ββββββββββββββββββββββββ β
|
| 501 |
+
β β
|
| 502 |
+
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 503 |
+
β DATASETS β
|
| 504 |
+
β β
|
| 505 |
+
β Criteo_x4 (CTR training) + iPinYou (bidding simulation) β
|
| 506 |
+
β OR: Criteo_x4 + synthetic price generation β
|
| 507 |
+
β β
|
| 508 |
+
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
|
| 509 |
+
```
|
| 510 |
+
|
| 511 |
+
### Implementation Priority
|
| 512 |
+
|
| 513 |
+
1. **Phase 1**: Improve CTR model β replace current LogisticRegression with FinalMLP trained on Criteo_x4 (via FuxiCTR)
|
| 514 |
+
2. **Phase 2**: Improve clearing price β add TorchSurv-based censored regression alongside current empirical CDF
|
| 515 |
+
3. **Phase 3**: Add Balseiro dual mirror descent for comparison (simpler baseline, no market price model)
|
| 516 |
+
4. **Phase 4**: Add two-sided budget constraint (cap + floor) with dual dual variables
|
| 517 |
+
5. **Phase 5**: Full sweep over hyperparameters: step size Ξ΅, budget fraction k%, value per click, CTR model architecture
|
| 518 |
+
|
| 519 |
+
### Online Learning Note
|
| 520 |
+
|
| 521 |
+
For production RTB where the environment is non-stationary, implement periodic retraining:
|
| 522 |
+
- Save model checkpoint every N hours
|
| 523 |
+
- Reload and train on sliding window of most recent data
|
| 524 |
+
- Deploy updated model without restarting the bidding algorithm
|
| 525 |
+
|
| 526 |
+
The Lagrangian multiplier Ξ» is intrinsically online (updated per auction). The CTR model needs separate periodic retraining.
|
| 527 |
+
|
| 528 |
+
---
|
| 529 |
+
|
| 530 |
+
## Paper Index (All Papers Referenced)
|
| 531 |
+
|
| 532 |
+
| # | Paper | arXiv | Venue | Year | Citations |
|
| 533 |
+
|---|-------|-------|-------|------|-----------|
|
| 534 |
+
| 1 | Wang et al. β Learning to Bid in Repeated First-Price Auctions with Budgets | 2304.13477 | NeurIPS | 2023 | Growing |
|
| 535 |
+
| 2 | Balseiro et al. β Dual Mirror Descent for Online Allocation | 2011.10124 | Ops Research | 2020 | 135+ |
|
| 536 |
+
| 3 | Feng et al. β Online Bidding for RoS Constrained Advertisers | 2208.13713 | ICML | 2022 | 38+ |
|
| 537 |
+
| 4 | Cai et al. β RTB by RL in Display Advertising | 1701.02490 | WSDM | 2017 | 300+ |
|
| 538 |
+
| 5 | Wang et al. β HiBid Hierarchical DRL Bidding | 2312.17503 | β | 2023 | New |
|
| 539 |
+
| 6 | β Online Bidding for Contextual First-Price (Quantile) | 2603.07207 | β | 2026 | New |
|
| 540 |
+
| 7 | Mao et al. β FinalMLP | 2304.00902 | AAAI | 2023 | Growing |
|
| 541 |
+
| 8 | Wang et al. β GDCN | 2311.04635 | CIKM | 2023 | Growing |
|
| 542 |
+
| 9 | Wang et al. β DCN V2 | 2008.13535 | WWW | 2021 | 500+ |
|
| 543 |
+
| 10 | Guo et al. β DeepFM | β | IJCAI | 2017 | 3000+ |
|
| 544 |
+
| 11 | β FCN: Fusing Cross Network | 2407.13349 | β | 2024 | New |
|
| 545 |
+
| 12 | Zhu et al. β BARS-CTR Benchmark | 2009.05794 | CIKM | 2021 | 100+ |
|
| 546 |
+
| 13 | Wu et al. β Predicting Winning Price with Censored Data | β | KDD | 2015 | 101 |
|
| 547 |
+
| 14 | β Deep Censored Learning of Winning Price | β | WWW | 2019 | Well-cited |
|
| 548 |
+
| 15 | Katzman et al. β DeepSurv | β | BMC | 2018 | 1000+ |
|
| 549 |
+
| 16 | β TorchSurv | 2404.10761 | β | 2024 | New |
|
| 550 |
+
| 17 | β Robust Budget Pacing with a Single Sample | 2302.02006 | β | 2023 | Growing |
|
| 551 |
+
| 18 | β Multi-Channel Autobidding with Budget and ROI | 2302.01523 | β | 2023 | Growing |
|
| 552 |
+
| 19 | β No-Regret in Repeated FPA with Budgets | 2205.14572 | β | 2022 | 14 |
|
| 553 |
+
| 20 | β Dynamic Budget Throttling | 2207.04690 | β | 2022 | 6 |
|
| 554 |
+
| 21 | β AIGB: Generative Auto-bidding | 2405.16141 | β | 2024 | New |
|
| 555 |
+
| 22 | β Adaptive Bidding under Non-Stationarity | 2505.02796 | β | 2025 | 2 |
|
| 556 |
+
| 23 | β Joint Value Estimation and Bidding | 2502.17292 | β | 2025 | 4 |
|
| 557 |
+
| 24 | β Leveraging Hints: Adaptive Bidding | 2211.06358 | β | 2022 | 13 |
|
| 558 |
+
| 25 | Zhou et al. β DIN | 1706.06978 | KDD | 2018 | 2000+ |
|
| 559 |
+
| 26 | Zhou et al. β DIEN | 1809.03672 | AAAI | 2019 | 1000+ |
|
| 560 |
+
| 27 | Lian et al. β xDeepFM | 1803.05170 | KDD | 2018 | 1000+ |
|
| 561 |
+
| 28 | Song et al. β AutoInt | 1810.11921 | CIKM | 2019 | 500+ |
|
| 562 |
+
| 29 | Naumov et al. β DLRM (Meta) | 1906.00091 | β | 2019 | 500+ |
|
| 563 |
+
| 30 | Cheng et al. β Wide & Deep | 1606.07792 | RecSys | 2016 | 4000+ |
|
| 564 |
+
| 31 | McMahan et al. β Ad Click Prediction (FTRL) | β | KDD | 2013 | 2000+ |
|
| 565 |
+
| 32 | Zhang et al. β Optimal RTB for Display Advertising | β | KDD | 2014 | 500+ |
|