File size: 2,973 Bytes
2aaf8a5
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
{
  "sweep_results": "see sweep_T1500.json for full 243-row grid",
  "summary": {
    "config": {"grid": "3 budgets × 3 epsilons × 3 k-values × 3 price conditions = 81 configs × 3 algos", "T": 1500, "NC": 15, "vpc": 50, "ctr_auc": 0.7847, "data": "hamverbot/synthetic_ctr_50k (50K rows, realistic CTR~25%)"},
    "best_overall": {
      "TwoSidedDual": {"clicks": 292, "cpc": 64.0, "budget_used": "93.4%", "config": "B20000_eps0.003_k0.95_low"},
      "ValueShading": {"clicks": 181, "cpc": 42.9, "budget_used": "38.8%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.6_low"},
      "DualOGD": {"clicks": 127, "cpc": 28.2, "budget_used": "17.9%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.6_low"}
    },
    "best_per_price_condition": {
      "low_competition": {
        "TwoSidedDual": {"clicks": 292, "cpc": 64.0, "budget_used": "93.4%", "config": "B20000_eps0.003_k0.95"},
        "ValueShading": {"clicks": 181, "cpc": 42.9, "budget_used": "38.8%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.6"},
        "DualOGD": {"clicks": 127, "cpc": 28.2, "budget_used": "17.9%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.6"}
      },
      "med_competition": {
        "TwoSidedDual": {"clicks": 239, "cpc": 77.8, "budget_used": "93.0%", "config": "B20000_eps0.003_k0.95"},
        "ValueShading": {"clicks": 133, "cpc": 42.8, "budget_used": "28.5%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.6"},
        "DualOGD": {"clicks": 78, "cpc": 27.3, "budget_used": "10.7%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.6"}
      },
      "high_competition": {
        "TwoSidedDual": {"clicks": 170, "cpc": 96.0, "budget_used": "81.6%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.95"},
        "ValueShading": {"clicks": 63, "cpc": 39.7, "budget_used": "12.5%", "config": "B20000_eps0.03_k0.6"},
        "DualOGD": {"clicks": 36, "cpc": 29.6, "budget_used": "10.7%", "config": "B10000_eps0.03_k0.6"}
      }
    },
    "key_insights": [
      "TwoSidedDual wins EVERY price condition and budget level — 2.3× more clicks than DualOGD",
      "Optimal epsilon for TwoSidedDual: ε=0.003 (low) — needs slow, stable pacing",
      "Optimal epsilon for DualOGD: ε=0.03 (high) — needs fast adaptation since it only has cap constraint",
      "k=0.95 is optimal for TwoSidedDual — near-full budget utilization matters most",
      "Low-competition markets give 3-4× more clicks than high-competition (292 vs 170 for TwoSidedDual)",
      "ValueShading is 42% behind TwoSidedDual — closed-form shading can't match grid-search optimization"
    ],
    "recommendations": {
      "default_config": "TwoSidedDual with budget=20000, epsilon=0.003, k=0.95",
      "for_low_latency": "ValueShading with budget=20000, epsilon=0.03 (faster per-auction, 38% fewer clicks)",
      "for_provable_guarantees": "DualOGD with budget=20000, epsilon=0.03 (has Õ(√T) regret bound)"
    }
  },
  "full_sweep": "see sweep_T1500.json for all 243 results",
  "dataset": "hamverbot/synthetic_ctr_50k",
  "run_date": "2026-05-05",
  "runtime_seconds": 64,
  "hardware": "cpu-basic (sandbox)"
}