v3: β-NLL head fix (Seitzer 2022) + λ sweep support

train_v3_prod.py

@@ -0,0 +1,797 @@
+# /// script
+# requires-python = ">=3.10"
+# dependencies = [
+#     "torch>=2.1",
+#     "numpy",
+#     "pandas",
+#     "scikit-learn",
+#     "huggingface-hub",
+#     "trackio",
+# ]
+# ///
+"""
+Flight-JEPA v2 — bundled training script for HF Jobs.
+
+Self-contained: downloads the dataset from HF, trains either the supervised
+baseline (`--lambda-jepa 0`) or the JEPA-augmented model, runs blindspot
+scoring + extrapolation eval, and pushes the result to a hub repo.
+
+Usage (HF Jobs):
+    python train_v2_prod.py --tag baseline --lambda-jepa 0.0 \
+        --hub-model-id guychuk/flight-jepa-v2 --push-to-hub
+
+    python train_v2_prod.py --tag jepa --lambda-jepa 0.5 \
+        --hub-model-id guychuk/flight-jepa-v2 --push-to-hub
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+import argparse
+import copy
+import json
+import math
+import os
+import shutil
+import sys
+import time
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import torch
+import torch.nn as nn
+import torch.nn.functional as F
+from torch.utils.data import Dataset, DataLoader
+
+try:
+    import trackio
+    HAS_TRACKIO = True
+except ImportError:
+    HAS_TRACKIO = False
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# DATA UTILITIES (inlined from flight_jepa.data)
+# ============================================================================
+
+def load_atfm(dset_name, mode, path):
+    variables = ["X", "Y", "Z"]
+    data, labels = [], None
+    for var in variables:
+        df = pd.read_csv(os.path.join(path, f"{dset_name}_{mode}_{var}.tsv"),
+                          sep="\t", header=None, na_values="NaN")
+        if labels is None:
+            labels = df.values[:, 0]
+        data.append(df.values[:, 1:])
+    return np.stack(data, axis=-1), labels.astype(int)
+
+
+def compute_features(traj_xyz: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
+    if traj_xyz.shape[0] < 2:
+        T = traj_xyz.shape[0]
+        return np.concatenate([
+            traj_xyz, np.zeros((T, 3), dtype=traj_xyz.dtype),
+            np.zeros((T, 3), dtype=traj_xyz.dtype)
+        ], axis=1)
+    x, y, z = traj_xyz[:, 0], traj_xyz[:, 1], traj_xyz[:, 2]
+    diff = np.diff(traj_xyz, axis=0)
+    norms = np.maximum(np.linalg.norm(diff, axis=1, keepdims=True), 1e-8)
+    u = diff / norms
+    u = np.vstack([u, u[-1:]])
+    r = np.sqrt(x ** 2 + y ** 2)
+    theta = np.arctan2(y, x)
+    return np.column_stack([
+        traj_xyz, u,
+        r[:, None], np.sin(theta)[:, None], np.cos(theta)[:, None]
+    ]).astype(np.float32)
+
+
+def ensure_data(airport: str, data_dir: str = "data"):
+    target = os.path.join(data_dir, airport)
+    if os.path.isdir(target) and any(f.endswith(".tsv") for f in os.listdir(target)):
+        return target
+    print(f"[data] downloading {airport} from HF ...")
+    from huggingface_hub import snapshot_download
+    snap = snapshot_download(
+        "petchthwr/ATFMTraj",
+        repo_type="dataset",
+        allow_patterns=[f"{airport}/*"],
+    )
+    os.makedirs(data_dir, exist_ok=True)
+    src = os.path.join(snap, airport)
+    if not os.path.isdir(target):
+        shutil.copytree(src, target)
+    return target
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# DATASET — variable-length blindspot
+# ============================================================================
+
+PAD_VALUE = 0.0
+
+
+class BlindspotDataset(Dataset):
+    def __init__(self, airport, mode, data_dir,
+                 past_max=256, past_min=60,
+                 delta_min=30, delta_max=120,
+                 seed=0, epoch_multiplier=4):
+        ensure_data(airport, data_dir)
+        airport_dir = os.path.join(data_dir, airport)
+        raw, labels = load_atfm(airport, mode, airport_dir)
+
+        self.past_max = past_max
+        self.past_min = past_min
+        self.delta_min = delta_min
+        self.delta_max = delta_max
+        self.epoch_multiplier = epoch_multiplier
+        self.rng_seed = seed
+
+        lengths = np.array(
+            [int(np.sum(~np.isnan(raw[i, :, 0]))) for i in range(raw.shape[0])],
+            dtype=np.int64,
+        )
+        min_required = past_min + delta_max + 1
+        keep = lengths >= min_required
+        if keep.sum() == 0:
+            raise RuntimeError(
+                f"No trajectories of length >= {min_required} in {airport}/{mode}"
+            )
+        raw = raw[keep]
+        lengths = lengths[keep]
+        self.labels = labels[keep].astype(np.int64)
+
+        self.positions = []
+        for i in range(raw.shape[0]):
+            L = int(lengths[i])
+            self.positions.append(np.nan_to_num(raw[i, :L], nan=0.0).astype(np.float32))
+        del raw
+
+        self.n_traj = len(self.positions)
+        print(f"[data] {airport}/{mode}: {self.n_traj} trajectories "
+              f"(after filtering for L >= {min_required})")
+
+    def __len__(self):
+        return self.n_traj * self.epoch_multiplier
+
+    def __getitem__(self, idx):
+        traj_idx = idx % self.n_traj
+        rng = np.random.default_rng(self.rng_seed + idx * 9173)
+        positions = self.positions[traj_idx]
+        L = positions.shape[0]
+        delta = int(rng.integers(self.delta_min, self.delta_max + 1))
+        t_in_max = L - delta - 1
+        t_in_min = self.past_min
+        t_in = int(rng.integers(t_in_min, t_in_max + 1))
+
+        past_start = max(0, t_in - self.past_max)
+        past_pos = positions[past_start:t_in]
+        target_pos = positions[t_in:t_in + delta]
+
+        past_features = compute_features(past_pos)
+        T_past = past_features.shape[0]
+        feat_pad = np.full((self.past_max, 9), PAD_VALUE, dtype=np.float32)
+        feat_pad[:T_past] = past_features
+        tgt_pad = np.zeros((self.delta_max, 3), dtype=np.float32)
+        tgt_pad[:delta] = target_pos
+        return {
+            "past_features": torch.from_numpy(feat_pad),
+            "past_length": torch.tensor(T_past, dtype=torch.long),
+            "target_pos": torch.from_numpy(tgt_pad),
+            "delta": torch.tensor(delta, dtype=torch.long),
+            "label": torch.tensor(int(self.labels[traj_idx]), dtype=torch.long),
+        }
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# MODEL
+# ============================================================================
+
+def sinusoidal_embedding(values, dim):
+    half = dim // 2
+    device = values.device
+    freqs = torch.exp(-math.log(10000.0)
+                      * torch.arange(half, device=device) / half)
+    angles = values.float().unsqueeze(-1) * freqs
+    emb = torch.cat([torch.sin(angles), torch.cos(angles)], dim=-1)
+    if dim % 2 == 1:
+        emb = F.pad(emb, (0, 1))
+    return emb
+
+
+class LearnablePosEnc(nn.Module):
+    def __init__(self, max_len, d_model):
+        super().__init__()
+        self.pe = nn.Parameter(torch.randn(1, max_len, d_model) * 0.02)
+    def forward(self, x):
+        return x + self.pe[:, :x.size(1)]
+
+
+class PatchTokenizer(nn.Module):
+    def __init__(self, in_channels=9, d_model=256, patch_size=8, max_patches=64):
+        super().__init__()
+        self.patch_size = patch_size
+        self.d_model = d_model
+        self.embed = nn.Sequential(
+            nn.Conv1d(in_channels, d_model // 2, 5, padding=2),
+            nn.GELU(),
+            nn.Conv1d(d_model // 2, d_model, 3, padding=1),
+            nn.GELU(),
+        )
+        self.pos_enc = LearnablePosEnc(max_patches, d_model)
+        self.norm = nn.LayerNorm(d_model)
+
+    def forward(self, features, lengths):
+        B, T, C = features.shape
+        h = self.embed(features.transpose(1, 2))
+        N = max(1, T // self.patch_size)
+        h = h[:, :, :N * self.patch_size]
+        h = h.reshape(B, self.d_model, N, self.patch_size).mean(-1)
+        h = h.transpose(1, 2)
+        h = self.norm(self.pos_enc(h))
+        patch_lengths = (lengths.float() / self.patch_size).clamp(min=1).long()
+        patch_lengths = patch_lengths.clamp(max=N)
+        return h, patch_lengths
+
+
+class CausalEncoder(nn.Module):
+    def __init__(self, d_model=256, n_heads=8, n_layers=4, d_ff=1024, dropout=0.1):
+        super().__init__()
+        layer = nn.TransformerEncoderLayer(
+            d_model=d_model, nhead=n_heads, dim_feedforward=d_ff,
+            dropout=dropout, activation="gelu", batch_first=True,
+            norm_first=True,
+        )
+        self.tf = nn.TransformerEncoder(layer, num_layers=n_layers)
+        self.norm = nn.LayerNorm(d_model)
+
+    def forward(self, x, key_padding_mask):
+        N = x.size(1)
+        causal_mask = torch.triu(
+            torch.ones(N, N, dtype=torch.bool, device=x.device), diagonal=1
+        )
+        return self.norm(
+            self.tf(x, mask=causal_mask, src_key_padding_mask=key_padding_mask)
+        )
+
+
+def last_valid_token(encoded, patch_lengths):
+    B, N, D = encoded.shape
+    idx = (patch_lengths - 1).clamp(min=0).view(B, 1, 1).expand(-1, 1, D)
+    return encoded.gather(1, idx).squeeze(1)
+
+
+class DeltaEmbedding(nn.Module):
+    def __init__(self, d_model=256, d_freq=64):
+        super().__init__()
+        self.d_freq = d_freq
+        self.proj = nn.Sequential(
+            nn.Linear(d_freq * 2, d_model),
+            nn.GELU(),
+            nn.Linear(d_model, d_model),
+        )
+    def forward(self, delta, t_past):
+        d_emb = sinusoidal_embedding(delta.float(), self.d_freq)
+        rel = delta.float() / t_past.float().clamp(min=1.0)
+        rel_emb = sinusoidal_embedding(rel * 100.0, self.d_freq)
+        return self.proj(torch.cat([d_emb, rel_emb], dim=-1))
+
+
+class GaussianHead(nn.Module):
+    def __init__(self, d_model=256, d_hidden=256):
+        super().__init__()
+        self.net = nn.Sequential(
+            nn.Linear(d_model, d_hidden), nn.GELU(),
+            nn.Linear(d_hidden, d_hidden), nn.GELU(),
+        )
+        self.mu_head = nn.Linear(d_hidden, 3)
+        self.log_sigma_head = nn.Linear(d_hidden, 3)
+        self.rho_head = nn.Linear(d_hidden, 1)
+
+    def forward(self, h):
+        z = self.net(h)
+        delta_mu = self.mu_head(z)
+        log_sigma = self.log_sigma_head(z).clamp(min=-7.0, max=2.0)
+        rho = torch.tanh(self.rho_head(z)).squeeze(-1) * 0.99
+        return delta_mu, log_sigma, rho
+
+
+def gaussian_nll_xyz(true_delta, mu, log_sigma, rho, beta: float = 0.5):
+    """
+    β-NLL Gaussian for (x, y, z) — bivariate on xy + independent z.
+
+    Standard NLL has a degenerate minimum where σ→0 ("σ-collapse",
+    Detlefsen 2019). β-NLL (Seitzer et al., arxiv:2203.09168) reweights
+    each sample's NLL by σ^{2β} (detached) so points with large σ get
+    proportionally more gradient on the mean term, preventing collapse.
+
+    β = 0   → standard NLL (collapse-prone, what v2 used)
+    β = 0.5 → recommended; preserves uncertainty learning
+    β = 1   → pure squared-error scaling (loses σ learning)
+    """
+    sx = log_sigma[:, 0].exp()
+    sy = log_sigma[:, 1].exp()
+    sz = log_sigma[:, 2].exp()
+    dx = true_delta[:, 0] - mu[:, 0]
+    dy = true_delta[:, 1] - mu[:, 1]
+    dz = true_delta[:, 2] - mu[:, 2]
+    omr2 = (1.0 - rho * rho).clamp(min=1e-6)
+    z2 = (((dx / sx) ** 2)
+          - 2.0 * rho * (dx / sx) * (dy / sy)
+          + ((dy / sy) ** 2)) / omr2
+    log_det = 2.0 * (log_sigma[:, 0] + log_sigma[:, 1]) + torch.log(omr2)
+    nll_xy = 0.5 * (z2 + log_det + 2.0 * math.log(2.0 * math.pi))
+    nll_z = 0.5 * ((dz / sz) ** 2 + 2.0 * log_sigma[:, 2]
+                    + math.log(2.0 * math.pi))
+
+    if beta > 0.0:
+        # Detached per-sample weights: σ^{2β}. Weight is treated as constant
+        # during backward, so it rescales the gradient without participating
+        # in optimization.
+        # For xy use geometric-mean σ; for z use σz directly.
+        sxy = (sx * sy).sqrt().detach()
+        wxy = sxy.pow(2.0 * beta)
+        wz = sz.detach().pow(2.0 * beta)
+        return wxy * nll_xy + wz * nll_z
+    return nll_xy + nll_z
+
+
+class FuturePredictor(nn.Module):
+    def __init__(self, d_model=256, pred_dim=128, dropout=0.1):
+        super().__init__()
+        self.proj_in = nn.Linear(d_model * 2, pred_dim)
+        layer = nn.TransformerEncoderLayer(
+            d_model=pred_dim, nhead=4, dim_feedforward=pred_dim * 2,
+            dropout=dropout, activation="gelu", batch_first=True, norm_first=True,
+        )
+        self.tf = nn.TransformerEncoder(layer, num_layers=2)
+        self.proj_out = nn.Linear(pred_dim, d_model)
+        self.norm = nn.LayerNorm(d_model)
+
+    def forward(self, z_in, delta_emb):
+        h = self.proj_in(torch.cat([z_in, delta_emb], dim=-1)).unsqueeze(1)
+        h = self.tf(h)
+        return self.norm(self.proj_out(h.squeeze(1)))
+
+
+class FlightJEPAv2(nn.Module):
+    def __init__(self, cfg):
+        super().__init__()
+        self.cfg = cfg
+        d = cfg.get("d_model", 256)
+        h_ = cfg.get("n_heads", 8)
+        n_l = cfg.get("n_layers", 4)
+        d_ff = cfg.get("d_ff", 1024)
+        dr = cfg.get("dropout", 0.1)
+        ps = cfg.get("patch_size", 8)
+        past_max = cfg.get("past_max", 256)
+        max_patches = past_max // ps
+        self.lambda_jepa = cfg.get("lambda_jepa", 0.0)
+        self.ema_decay = cfg.get("ema_decay", 0.998)
+        self.beta_nll = cfg.get("beta_nll", 0.5)
+
+        self.tokenizer = PatchTokenizer(9, d, ps, max_patches)
+        self.encoder = CausalEncoder(d, h_, n_l, d_ff, dr)
+        self.delta_emb = DeltaEmbedding(d, 64)
+        self.head = GaussianHead(d, d)
+        self.fuse_in = nn.Sequential(
+            nn.Linear(d * 2, d), nn.GELU(),
+            nn.Linear(d, d),
+        )
+        self.step_cell = nn.GRUCell(input_size=3, hidden_size=d)
+
+        self.target_tokenizer = copy.deepcopy(self.tokenizer)
+        self.target_encoder = copy.deepcopy(self.encoder)
+        for p in self.target_tokenizer.parameters():
+            p.requires_grad = False
+        for p in self.target_encoder.parameters():
+            p.requires_grad = False
+        self.predictor = FuturePredictor(d, d // 2, dr)
+
+    @torch.no_grad()
+    def update_ema(self):
+        m = self.ema_decay
+        for online, target in [(self.tokenizer, self.target_tokenizer),
+                                (self.encoder, self.target_encoder)]:
+            for po, pt in zip(online.parameters(), target.parameters()):
+                pt.data.mul_(m).add_(po.data, alpha=1.0 - m)
+
+    def encode_past(self, past_features, past_length):
+        patches, patch_lens = self.tokenizer(past_features, past_length)
+        N = patches.size(1)
+        pad_mask = (torch.arange(N, device=patches.device).unsqueeze(0)
+                    >= patch_lens.unsqueeze(1))
+        encoded = self.encoder(patches, key_padding_mask=pad_mask)
+        z_in = last_valid_token(encoded, patch_lens)
+        return z_in, encoded, patch_lens
+
+    @torch.no_grad()
+    def encode_future_target(self, target_features, target_length):
+        patches, patch_lens = self.target_tokenizer(target_features, target_length)
+        N = patches.size(1)
+        pad_mask = (torch.arange(N, device=patches.device).unsqueeze(0)
+                    >= patch_lens.unsqueeze(1))
+        encoded = self.target_encoder(patches, key_padding_mask=pad_mask)
+        return last_valid_token(encoded, patch_lens)
+
+    def forward(self, past_features, past_length, target_pos, delta, last_pos):
+        B = past_features.size(0)
+        device = past_features.device
+        delta_max = target_pos.size(1)
+
+        z_in, _, _ = self.encode_past(past_features, past_length)
+        delta_e = self.delta_emb(delta, past_length)
+        h = self.fuse_in(torch.cat([z_in, delta_e], dim=-1))
+
+        prev_pos = last_pos
+        nll_total = torch.zeros(B, device=device)
+        valid_steps = torch.zeros(B, device=device)
+        ade_total = torch.zeros(B, device=device)
+
+        for t in range(delta_max):
+            delta_mu, log_sigma, rho = self.head(h)
+            true_pos_t = target_pos[:, t]
+            true_delta = true_pos_t - prev_pos
+            nll = gaussian_nll_xyz(true_delta, delta_mu, log_sigma, rho,
+                                    beta=self.beta_nll)
+            mask = (t < delta).float()
+            nll_total = nll_total + nll * mask
+            ade_total = (ade_total
+                         + (true_delta - delta_mu).pow(2).sum(-1).sqrt() * mask)
+            valid_steps = valid_steps + mask
+            h = self.step_cell(true_delta, h)
+            prev_pos = true_pos_t
+
+        nll_loss = (nll_total / valid_steps.clamp(min=1.0)).mean()
+        ade_train = (ade_total / valid_steps.clamp(min=1.0)).mean().detach()
+
+        losses = {"nll": nll_loss, "ade_train": ade_train, "total": nll_loss}
+
+        if self.lambda_jepa > 0.0:
+            tgt_feat = torch.zeros(B, delta_max, 9, device=device)
+            tgt_feat[..., :3] = target_pos
+            z_target = self.encode_future_target(tgt_feat, delta)
+            z_pred = self.predictor(z_in, delta_e)
+            jepa_loss = F.l1_loss(z_pred, z_target.detach())
+            losses["jepa"] = jepa_loss
+            losses["total"] = nll_loss + self.lambda_jepa * jepa_loss
+
+        return losses
+
+    @torch.no_grad()
+    def rollout(self, past_features, past_length, delta, last_pos, delta_max):
+        B = past_features.size(0)
+        device = past_features.device
+        z_in, _, _ = self.encode_past(past_features, past_length)
+        delta_e = self.delta_emb(delta, past_length)
+        h = self.fuse_in(torch.cat([z_in, delta_e], dim=-1))
+        prev_pos = last_pos
+        mu_pos = torch.zeros(B, delta_max, 3, device=device)
+        sigma = torch.zeros(B, delta_max, 3, device=device)
+        rho_out = torch.zeros(B, delta_max, device=device)
+        for t in range(delta_max):
+            delta_mu, log_sigma, rho = self.head(h)
+            cur_pos = prev_pos + delta_mu
+            mu_pos[:, t] = cur_pos
+            sigma[:, t] = log_sigma.exp()
+            rho_out[:, t] = rho
+            h = self.step_cell(delta_mu, h)
+            prev_pos = cur_pos
+        return mu_pos, sigma, rho_out
+
+
+# ============================================================================
+# TRAIN + SCORE
+# ============================================================================
+
+RMAX_KM = 120.0
+DELTA_BUCKETS = [(30, 60), (60, 90), (90, 120)]
+EXTRAP_DELTAS = [180, 300]
+THRESH_M = [500.0, 1000.0, 2000.0]
+
+
+def get_last_pos(past_features, past_length):
+    B = past_features.size(0)
+    idx = (past_length - 1).clamp(min=0)
+    return past_features[torch.arange(B, device=past_features.device), idx, :3]
+
+
+def train_one_epoch(model, loader, optimizer, device, grad_clip=1.0,
+                     log_every: int = 50):
+    model.train()
+    sums = {"nll": 0.0, "ade": 0.0, "jepa": 0.0, "total": 0.0, "n": 0}
+    t0 = time.time()
+    n_batches = len(loader) if hasattr(loader, "__len__") else 0
+    for bi, batch in enumerate(loader):
+        past_f = batch["past_features"].to(device)
+        past_l = batch["past_length"].to(device)
+        target = batch["target_pos"].to(device)
+        delta = batch["delta"].to(device)
+        last_pos = get_last_pos(past_f, past_l)
+        losses = model(past_f, past_l, target, delta, last_pos)
+        optimizer.zero_grad()
+        losses["total"].backward()
+        torch.nn.utils.clip_grad_norm_(model.parameters(), grad_clip)
+        optimizer.step()
+        if model.lambda_jepa > 0.0:
+            model.update_ema()
+        bs = past_f.size(0)
+        sums["nll"] += losses["nll"].item() * bs
+        sums["ade"] += losses["ade_train"].item() * bs
+        if "jepa" in losses:
+            sums["jepa"] += losses["jepa"].item() * bs
+        sums["total"] += losses["total"].item() * bs
+        sums["n"] += bs
+
+        if (bi + 1) % log_every == 0 or bi == 0:
+            dt = time.time() - t0
+            rate = (bi + 1) / max(dt, 0.001)
+            print(f"  [batch {bi+1}/{n_batches}] {dt:.1f}s elapsed, "
+                  f"{rate:.1f} batch/s, loss={losses['total'].item():.4f}",
+                  flush=True)
+    n = max(sums["n"], 1)
+    return {k: v / n for k, v in sums.items() if k != "n"} | {
+        "ade_train": sums["ade"] / n
+    }
+
+
+@torch.no_grad()
+def score_loader(model, loader, device, extrap_delta=None):
+    model.train(False)
+    delta_max_dataset = loader.dataset.delta_max
+    per_sample = []
+    for batch in loader:
+        past_f = batch["past_features"].to(device)
+        past_l = batch["past_length"].to(device)
+        target = batch["target_pos"].to(device)
+        delta = batch["delta"].to(device)
+        last_pos = get_last_pos(past_f, past_l)
+        if extrap_delta is not None:
+            forced = torch.full_like(delta, extrap_delta)
+            roll_len = extrap_delta
+        else:
+            forced = delta
+            roll_len = int(delta.max().item())
+        if roll_len > delta_max_dataset:
+            continue
+        mu_pos, sigma, rho = model.rollout(past_f, past_l, forced, last_pos, roll_len)
+        active_len = torch.minimum(forced, delta).clamp(min=1)
+        for i in range(past_f.size(0)):
+            L = int(active_len[i].item())
+            per_sample.append({
+                "mu": mu_pos[i, :L].cpu().numpy(),
+                "sigma": sigma[i, :L].cpu().numpy(),
+                "rho": rho[i, :L].cpu().numpy(),
+                "target": target[i, :L].cpu().numpy(),
+                "delta_orig": int(delta[i].item()),
+            })
+
+    if not per_sample:
+        return {}
+    ades, fdes = [], []
+    in_circle = {t: [] for t in THRESH_M}
+    nlls, coverage95, delta_orig = [], [], []
+    for s in per_sample:
+        diff = s["target"] - s["mu"]
+        per_step_l2 = np.linalg.norm(diff, axis=1) * RMAX_KM * 1000.0
+        ades.append(per_step_l2.mean())
+        fdes.append(per_step_l2[-1])
+        for t in THRESH_M:
+            in_circle[t].append(per_step_l2[-1] <= t)
+        sx = max(s["sigma"][-1, 0], 1e-9)
+        sy = max(s["sigma"][-1, 1], 1e-9)
+        sz = max(s["sigma"][-1, 2], 1e-9)
+        rho_xy = s["rho"][-1]
+        dx = diff[-1, 0]; dy = diff[-1, 1]; dz = diff[-1, 2]
+        omr2 = max(1.0 - rho_xy * rho_xy, 1e-6)
+        z2 = ((dx / sx) ** 2 - 2 * rho_xy * (dx / sx) * (dy / sy)
+              + (dy / sy) ** 2) / omr2
+        coverage95.append(z2 <= 5.991)
+        log_det = 2 * (math.log(sx) + math.log(sy)) + math.log(omr2)
+        nll_xy = 0.5 * (z2 + log_det + 2 * math.log(2 * math.pi))
+        nll_z = 0.5 * ((dz / sz) ** 2 + 2 * math.log(sz) + math.log(2 * math.pi))
+        nlls.append(nll_xy + nll_z)
+        delta_orig.append(s["delta_orig"])
+    ades = np.array(ades); fdes = np.array(fdes)
+    nlls = np.array(nlls); coverage95 = np.array(coverage95, dtype=float)
+    delta_orig = np.array(delta_orig)
+    out = {
+        "ade_m": float(ades.mean()),
+        "fde_m": float(fdes.mean()),
+        "fde_median_m": float(np.median(fdes)),
+        "nll_xy_z": float(nlls.mean()),
+        "coverage_95": float(coverage95.mean()),
+        "n": len(ades),
+    }
+    for t in THRESH_M:
+        out[f"miss_rate_{int(t)}m"] = float(1.0 - np.mean(in_circle[t]))
+    if extrap_delta is None:
+        per_bucket = {}
+        for lo, hi in DELTA_BUCKETS:
+            mask = (delta_orig >= lo) & (delta_orig <= hi)
+            if mask.sum() == 0:
+                continue
+            per_bucket[f"delta_{lo}_{hi}"] = {
+                "ade_m": float(ades[mask].mean()),
+                "fde_m": float(fdes[mask].mean()),
+                "coverage_95": float(coverage95[mask].mean()),
+                "n": int(mask.sum()),
+            }
+        out["per_bucket"] = per_bucket
+    return out
+
+
+def main():
+    p = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    p.add_argument("--airport", default="RKSIa")
+    p.add_argument("--data-dir", default="data")
+    p.add_argument("--tag", default="run")
+    p.add_argument("--out-dir", default="runs")
+    p.add_argument("--epochs", type=int, default=30)
+    p.add_argument("--batch-size", type=int, default=64)
+    p.add_argument("--lr", type=float, default=1e-4)
+    p.add_argument("--weight-decay", type=float, default=1e-4)
+    p.add_argument("--past-max", type=int, default=256)
+    p.add_argument("--past-min", type=int, default=60)
+    p.add_argument("--delta-min", type=int, default=30)
+    p.add_argument("--delta-max", type=int, default=120)
+    p.add_argument("--extrap-delta-max", type=int, default=300)
+    p.add_argument("--epoch-multiplier", type=int, default=4)
+    p.add_argument("--lambda-jepa", type=float, default=0.0)
+    p.add_argument("--ema-decay", type=float, default=0.998)
+    p.add_argument("--beta-nll", type=float, default=0.5,
+                   help="β-NLL exponent (Seitzer 2022). 0=plain NLL, 0.5=recommended.")
+    p.add_argument("--d-model", type=int, default=256)
+    p.add_argument("--n-layers", type=int, default=4)
+    p.add_argument("--n-heads", type=int, default=8)
+    p.add_argument("--patch-size", type=int, default=8)
+    p.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=0)
+    p.add_argument("--num-workers", type=int, default=2)
+    p.add_argument("--push-to-hub", action="store_true")
+    p.add_argument("--hub-model-id", default=None)
+    p.add_argument("--trackio-name", default=None)
+    args = p.parse_args()
+
+    torch.manual_seed(args.seed)
+    np.random.seed(args.seed)
+
+    device = "cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu"
+    print(f"[v2] device={device} tag={args.tag} "
+          f"lambda_jepa={args.lambda_jepa} beta_nll={args.beta_nll}",
+          flush=True)
+    if device == "cuda":
+        print(f"[v2] cuda device: {torch.cuda.get_device_name(0)} "
+              f"vram={torch.cuda.get_device_properties(0).total_memory/1e9:.1f}GB",
+              flush=True)
+    else:
+        print("[v2] WARNING: CUDA not available, training on CPU. "
+              "This will be very slow.", flush=True)
+
+    if HAS_TRACKIO and args.trackio_name:
+        trackio.init(project="flight-jepa-v2", name=args.trackio_name,
+                      config=vars(args))
+
+    train_ds = BlindspotDataset(
+        airport=args.airport, mode="TRAIN", data_dir=args.data_dir,
+        past_max=args.past_max, past_min=args.past_min,
+        delta_min=args.delta_min, delta_max=args.delta_max,
+        seed=args.seed, epoch_multiplier=args.epoch_multiplier,
+    )
+    test_ds = BlindspotDataset(
+        airport=args.airport, mode="TEST", data_dir=args.data_dir,
+        past_max=args.past_max, past_min=args.past_min,
+        delta_min=args.delta_min, delta_max=args.delta_max,
+        seed=args.seed + 1, epoch_multiplier=1,
+    )
+    extrap_ds = BlindspotDataset(
+        airport=args.airport, mode="TEST", data_dir=args.data_dir,
+        past_max=args.past_max, past_min=args.past_min,
+        delta_min=args.delta_min, delta_max=args.extrap_delta_max,
+        seed=args.seed + 99, epoch_multiplier=1,
+    )
+
+    train_dl = DataLoader(train_ds, batch_size=args.batch_size, shuffle=True,
+                           num_workers=args.num_workers, pin_memory=True,
+                           drop_last=True)
+    test_dl = DataLoader(test_ds, batch_size=args.batch_size, shuffle=False,
+                          num_workers=args.num_workers, pin_memory=True)
+    extrap_dl = DataLoader(extrap_ds, batch_size=args.batch_size, shuffle=False,
+                            num_workers=args.num_workers, pin_memory=True)
+
+    cfg = {
+        "d_model": args.d_model, "n_heads": args.n_heads,
+        "n_layers": args.n_layers, "d_ff": args.d_model * 4,
+        "dropout": 0.1, "patch_size": args.patch_size,
+        "past_max": args.past_max, "lambda_jepa": args.lambda_jepa,
+        "ema_decay": args.ema_decay, "beta_nll": args.beta_nll,
+    }
+    model = FlightJEPAv2(cfg).to(device)
+    n_params = sum(p.numel() for p in model.parameters())
+    print(f"[v2] params={n_params/1e6:.2f}M")
+
+    optimizer = torch.optim.AdamW(model.parameters(), lr=args.lr,
+                                   weight_decay=args.weight_decay)
+    scheduler = torch.optim.lr_scheduler.CosineAnnealingLR(optimizer, T_max=args.epochs)
+
+    os.makedirs(args.out_dir, exist_ok=True)
+    history = []
+    best_fde = float("inf")
+    best_state = None
+
+    for epoch in range(args.epochs):
+        t0 = time.time()
+        train_stats = train_one_epoch(model, train_dl, optimizer, device)
+        scheduler.step()
+
+        score_stats = None
+        if (epoch + 1) % 5 == 0 or epoch == args.epochs - 1:
+            score_stats = score_loader(model, test_dl, device)
+            if score_stats and score_stats["fde_m"] < best_fde:
+                best_fde = score_stats["fde_m"]
+                best_state = {k: v.detach().cpu().clone()
+                              for k, v in model.state_dict().items()}
+
+        elapsed = time.time() - t0
+        log = {
+            "epoch": epoch + 1, "elapsed_s": elapsed,
+            "lr": optimizer.param_groups[0]["lr"],
+            "train": train_stats, "score": score_stats,
+        }
+        history.append(log)
+        msg = (f"[v2] ep {epoch+1:03d} | loss={train_stats['total']:.4f} "
+               f"nll={train_stats['nll']:.4f} ade_t={train_stats['ade_train']:.4f} "
+               f"jepa={train_stats['jepa']:.4f}")
+        if score_stats:
+            msg += f" | fde={score_stats['fde_m']:.0f}m ade={score_stats['ade_m']:.0f}m"
+        msg += f" | {elapsed:.0f}s"
+        print(msg, flush=True)
+
+        if HAS_TRACKIO and args.trackio_name:
+            tlog = {f"train/{k}": v for k, v in train_stats.items()}
+            if score_stats:
+                tlog.update({f"test/{k}": v for k, v in score_stats.items()
+                             if isinstance(v, (int, float))})
+            trackio.log(tlog, step=epoch + 1)
+
+    final = {"in_distribution": score_loader(model, test_dl, device)}
+    for d in EXTRAP_DELTAS:
+        final[f"extrap_delta_{d}"] = score_loader(model, extrap_dl, device, extrap_delta=d)
+
+    if best_state is not None:
+        model.load_state_dict(best_state)
+
+    out_path = os.path.join(args.out_dir, f"{args.tag}.pt")
+    torch.save({
+        "state_dict": model.state_dict(),
+        "config": cfg, "args": vars(args),
+        "history": history, "final": final,
+        "best_fde_m": best_fde,
+    }, out_path)
+    print(f"[v2] saved {out_path}")
+
+    summary_path = os.path.join(args.out_dir, f"{args.tag}_summary.json")
+    with open(summary_path, "w") as f:
+        json.dump({
+            "tag": args.tag, "lambda_jepa": args.lambda_jepa,
+            "beta_nll": args.beta_nll,
+            "n_params": n_params, "best_fde_m": best_fde,
+            "final": final, "args": vars(args),
+        }, f, indent=2, default=float)
+    print(f"[v2] summary -> {summary_path}", flush=True)
+
+    if args.push_to_hub and args.hub_model_id:
+        try:
+            from huggingface_hub import HfApi
+            api = HfApi()
+            api.create_repo(args.hub_model_id, exist_ok=True)
+            for path, fname in [(out_path, f"{args.tag}.pt"),
+                                 (summary_path, f"{args.tag}_summary.json")]:
+                api.upload_file(path_or_fileobj=path, path_in_repo=fname,
+                                 repo_id=args.hub_model_id)
+            print(f"[v2] uploaded to {args.hub_model_id}")
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"[v2] hub upload failed: {e}")
+
+    if HAS_TRACKIO and args.trackio_name:
+        trackio.finish()
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()