Upload alpha_factory/deterministic/regime_tagger.py with huggingface_hub
Browse files
alpha_factory/deterministic/regime_tagger.py
CHANGED
|
@@ -7,7 +7,6 @@ from dataclasses import dataclass
|
|
| 7 |
|
| 8 |
@dataclass
|
| 9 |
class RegimeProfile:
|
| 10 |
-
"""Regime classification for a single year."""
|
| 11 |
year: int
|
| 12 |
vol_regime: str # "low" (<15 VIX), "mid" (15-25), "high" (>25)
|
| 13 |
trend_regime: str # "bull" (SPY 12-1 mom > 0), "bear" (< 0)
|
|
@@ -15,8 +14,6 @@ class RegimeProfile:
|
|
| 15 |
style_regime: str # "value" or "growth" leadership
|
| 16 |
|
| 17 |
|
| 18 |
-
# Historical regime data (2019-2024) — hardcoded from public market data
|
| 19 |
-
# In production, compute from VIX/SPY/10Y/Russell indices
|
| 20 |
HISTORICAL_REGIMES = {
|
| 21 |
2019: RegimeProfile(2019, "low", "bull", "flattening", "growth"),
|
| 22 |
2020: RegimeProfile(2020, "high", "bull", "flattening", "growth"),
|
|
@@ -28,15 +25,10 @@ HISTORICAL_REGIMES = {
|
|
| 28 |
|
| 29 |
|
| 30 |
def get_regime(year: int) -> RegimeProfile:
|
| 31 |
-
"""Get regime profile for a year."""
|
| 32 |
return HISTORICAL_REGIMES.get(year, RegimeProfile(year, "mid", "bull", "flattening", "growth"))
|
| 33 |
|
| 34 |
|
| 35 |
def tag_yearly_regimes(yearly_sharpe: list[float], start_year: int = 2019) -> list[dict]:
|
| 36 |
-
"""
|
| 37 |
-
Tag each year's Sharpe with its regime context.
|
| 38 |
-
Returns list of {year, sharpe, vol_regime, trend_regime, ...}
|
| 39 |
-
"""
|
| 40 |
tagged = []
|
| 41 |
for i, sharpe in enumerate(yearly_sharpe):
|
| 42 |
year = start_year + i
|
|
@@ -53,13 +45,7 @@ def tag_yearly_regimes(yearly_sharpe: list[float], start_year: int = 2019) -> li
|
|
| 53 |
|
| 54 |
|
| 55 |
def detect_regime_dependency(yearly_sharpe: list[float], start_year: int = 2019) -> dict:
|
| 56 |
-
"""
|
| 57 |
-
Detect if alpha performance is regime-dependent.
|
| 58 |
-
Returns analysis of which regimes it works/fails in.
|
| 59 |
-
"""
|
| 60 |
tagged = tag_yearly_regimes(yearly_sharpe, start_year)
|
| 61 |
-
|
| 62 |
-
# Group by regimes
|
| 63 |
vol_performance = {"low": [], "mid": [], "high": []}
|
| 64 |
trend_performance = {"bull": [], "bear": []}
|
| 65 |
style_performance = {"value": [], "growth": []}
|
|
@@ -78,12 +64,10 @@ def detect_regime_dependency(yearly_sharpe: list[float], start_year: int = 2019)
|
|
| 78 |
"style_sensitivity": {k: round(avg(v), 3) for k, v in style_performance.items() if v},
|
| 79 |
}
|
| 80 |
|
| 81 |
-
# Detect dependency: if performance differs > 1.0 Sharpe between regimes
|
| 82 |
max_vol_diff = max(vol_performance.values(), key=avg, default=[0])
|
| 83 |
min_vol_diff = min(vol_performance.values(), key=avg, default=[0])
|
| 84 |
analysis["regime_dependent"] = (avg(max_vol_diff) - avg(min_vol_diff)) > 1.0
|
| 85 |
|
| 86 |
-
# Best/worst regime
|
| 87 |
all_regime_sharpes = [(f"{k}_{regime}", avg(v))
|
| 88 |
for category in [vol_performance, trend_performance, style_performance]
|
| 89 |
for regime, sharpes in category.items()
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
|
| 8 |
@dataclass
|
| 9 |
class RegimeProfile:
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
year: int
|
| 11 |
vol_regime: str # "low" (<15 VIX), "mid" (15-25), "high" (>25)
|
| 12 |
trend_regime: str # "bull" (SPY 12-1 mom > 0), "bear" (< 0)
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
style_regime: str # "value" or "growth" leadership
|
| 15 |
|
| 16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
HISTORICAL_REGIMES = {
|
| 18 |
2019: RegimeProfile(2019, "low", "bull", "flattening", "growth"),
|
| 19 |
2020: RegimeProfile(2020, "high", "bull", "flattening", "growth"),
|
|
|
|
| 25 |
|
| 26 |
|
| 27 |
def get_regime(year: int) -> RegimeProfile:
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
return HISTORICAL_REGIMES.get(year, RegimeProfile(year, "mid", "bull", "flattening", "growth"))
|
| 29 |
|
| 30 |
|
| 31 |
def tag_yearly_regimes(yearly_sharpe: list[float], start_year: int = 2019) -> list[dict]:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 32 |
tagged = []
|
| 33 |
for i, sharpe in enumerate(yearly_sharpe):
|
| 34 |
year = start_year + i
|
|
|
|
| 45 |
|
| 46 |
|
| 47 |
def detect_regime_dependency(yearly_sharpe: list[float], start_year: int = 2019) -> dict:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 48 |
tagged = tag_yearly_regimes(yearly_sharpe, start_year)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 49 |
vol_performance = {"low": [], "mid": [], "high": []}
|
| 50 |
trend_performance = {"bull": [], "bear": []}
|
| 51 |
style_performance = {"value": [], "growth": []}
|
|
|
|
| 64 |
"style_sensitivity": {k: round(avg(v), 3) for k, v in style_performance.items() if v},
|
| 65 |
}
|
| 66 |
|
|
|
|
| 67 |
max_vol_diff = max(vol_performance.values(), key=avg, default=[0])
|
| 68 |
min_vol_diff = min(vol_performance.values(), key=avg, default=[0])
|
| 69 |
analysis["regime_dependent"] = (avg(max_vol_diff) - avg(min_vol_diff)) > 1.0
|
| 70 |
|
|
|
|
| 71 |
all_regime_sharpes = [(f"{k}_{regime}", avg(v))
|
| 72 |
for category in [vol_performance, trend_performance, style_performance]
|
| 73 |
for regime, sharpes in category.items()
|