V1.1.0 release — case_study_calibration batch 1/1 (4 files, 0.0 MB)
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case_study_calibration/apache_http_server.jsonl
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{"case_name":"apache_http_server","source_tr":"TR-3","tr_arxiv_id":"2601.16237","rubric_score_over_60":52,"rubric_accuracy_percent":86.7,"historical_correspondence":"86.7% rubric validation against Apache HTTP Server Project governance history","trajectory_summary":{"environment":"ApacheProject-v0","reward_type":"cooperative","n_seeds":7,"n_episodes_per_seed":10,"episode_length":60,"oracle_constant_action":50.0,"isac_early_half_mean_action":46.52998508271717,"isac_late_half_mean_action":46.515973191034234,"isac_early_vs_late_diff":-0.014011891682933708,"isac_vs_oracle_early_diff":-3.470014917282832,"isac_vs_oracle_late_diff":-3.4840268089657656,"isac_mean_return":5031042.80859375,"oracle_return":5484825.8515625,"exceedance_pct":-8.27342663649891}}
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case_study_calibration/apple_ios_app_store.jsonl
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{"case_name":"apple_ios_app_store","source_tr":"TR-4","tr_arxiv_id":"2604.01240","rubric_score_over_55":48,"rubric_accuracy_percent":87.3,"historical_correspondence":"87.3% rubric validation against iOS App Store history 2008-2024","results":{"case_name":"apple_ios","actors":["Apple","MajorDev","SmallDev"],"num_quarters":66,"num_phases":5,"simulation":{"phase_means":{"Symbiosis":{"Apple":0.8545697243035661,"MajorDev":0.7598776850101082,"SmallDev":0.7886728069071449},"Maturation":{"Apple":0.9936612419814731,"MajorDev":0.9514840238965595,"SmallDev":0.9614449632207797},"Tension":{"Apple":0.9330558923916104,"MajorDev":0.8262868645586621,"SmallDev":0.9373564451663854},"Crisis":{"Apple":0.7122522130395488,"MajorDev":0.40655720223205505,"SmallDev":0.8310397531129005},"Adjustment":{"Apple":0.8799003616858491,"MajorDev":0.4447323394878272,"SmallDev":0.8480104404557921}},"final_actions":[0.8801250336521205,0.43454174705346077,0.8893137822918923],"final_trust":[[1.0,0.10392382613448688,0.5120309892435909],[0.4055061483801906,1.0,0.46857373280376907],[0.40168122584277643,0.11780327716306345,1.0]]},"validation_score":{"total_score":43.0,"total_applicable":51,"validation_percentage":84.31372549019608,"phase_scores":{"Symbiosis":8.5,"Maturation":10.0,"Tension":8.0,"Crisis":6.5,"Adjustment":10.0},"phase_applicable":{"Symbiosis":9,"Maturation":10,"Tension":10,"Crisis":10,"Adjustment":12},"indicator_totals":{"coop_trend":4.5,"response_magnitude":2.5,"memory_effects":3.5,"asymmetry":5.0,"trust_recip_align":4.5,"punishment":3.5,"forgiveness":0.5,"phase_timing":5.0,"recovery_shape":1.0,"eq_stability":5.0,"param_sensitivity":4.5,"overall_fit":3.5},"passed":true},"statistical_tests":{"anova":{"F_statistic":92.1352246641908,"p_value":2.832393653499093e-26,"significant":"True"},"pearson":{"r":0.7855174281721996,"p_value":0.0005192803707515883,"r_squared":0.6170376299622667,"n_observations":15},"rmse":0.18735928377759933,"trajectory_correlation":{"aggregate_r":0.7732088284267968,"aggregate_p":1.8076586847146361e-12,"per_actor":{"Apple":{"r":0.8594634292051508,"p_value":2.4228923184623123e-06},"MajorDev":{"r":0.8730068916058946,"p_value":1.0743382252100884e-06},"SmallDev":{"r":0.3088491982356334,"p_value":0.1982413099688674}},"n_points":57}},"counterfactual":{"scenario":"Early commission reduction (2019 vs 2021)","base_final_actions":[0.8801250336521205,0.43454174705346077,0.8893137822918923],"cf_final_actions":[0.9815092075950346,0.8068321734612365,0.9940723501089869],"cooperation_improvement":0.19281105605592808,"trust_comparison":{"base_final_trust":[[1.0,0.10392382613448688,0.5120309892435909],[0.4055061483801906,1.0,0.46857373280376907],[0.40168122584277643,0.11780327716306345,1.0]],"cf_final_trust":[[1.0,0.5292491794786263,0.7459537018859872],[0.7575331114911406,1.0,0.6496446411283825],[0.7570545142721917,0.47802213030450014,1.0]]},"phase_comparison":{"Symbiosis":{"base_mean":0.8010400720736065,"counterfactual_mean":0.8010400720736065,"difference":0.0,"pct_change":0.0},"Maturation":{"base_mean":0.968863409699604,"counterfactual_mean":0.9720380128742073,"difference":0.0031746031746032743,"pct_change":0.32766261403014074},"Tension":{"base_mean":0.8988997340388858,"counterfactual_mean":0.9778745629427673,"difference":0.07897482890388152,"pct_change":8.785721689897077},"Crisis":{"base_mean":0.6499497227948348,"counterfactual_mean":0.923473755825851,"difference":0.27352403303101624,"pct_change":42.08387563500165},"Adjustment":{"base_mean":0.7242143805431562,"counterfactual_mean":0.9392983625635614,"difference":0.21508398202040513,"pct_change":29.698938297675543}}}},"counterfactual":{"scenario":"Early commission reduction (2019 vs 2021)","base_final_actions":[0.8801250336521205,0.43454174705346077,0.8893137822918923],"cf_final_actions":[0.9815092075950346,0.8068321734612365,0.9940723501089869],"cooperation_improvement":0.19281105605592808,"trust_comparison":{"base_final_trust":[[1.0,0.10392382613448688,0.5120309892435909],[0.4055061483801906,1.0,0.46857373280376907],[0.40168122584277643,0.11780327716306345,1.0]],"cf_final_trust":[[1.0,0.5292491794786263,0.7459537018859872],[0.7575331114911406,1.0,0.6496446411283825],[0.7570545142721917,0.47802213030450014,1.0]]},"phase_comparison":{"Symbiosis":{"base_mean":0.8010400720736065,"counterfactual_mean":0.8010400720736065,"difference":0.0,"pct_change":0.0},"Maturation":{"base_mean":0.968863409699604,"counterfactual_mean":0.9720380128742073,"difference":0.0031746031746032743,"pct_change":0.32766261403014074},"Tension":{"base_mean":0.8988997340388858,"counterfactual_mean":0.9778745629427673,"difference":0.07897482890388152,"pct_change":8.785721689897077},"Crisis":{"base_mean":0.6499497227948348,"counterfactual_mean":0.923473755825851,"difference":0.27352403303101624,"pct_change":42.08387563500165},"Adjustment":{"base_mean":0.7242143805431562,"counterfactual_mean":0.9392983625635614,"difference":0.21508398202040513,"pct_change":29.698938297675543}}},"behavioral_targets":{"cooperation_emergence":{"metric":"cooperation_emerged","achieved":15235,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":97.504,"threshold":85.0,"passed":true},"defection_punishment":{"metric":"defection_punished","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":95.0,"passed":true},"forgiveness_dynamics":{"metric":"forgiveness_achieved","achieved":13728,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":87.8592,"threshold":80.0,"passed":true},"asymmetric_differentiation":{"metric":"asymmetric_differentiated","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":90.0,"passed":true},"trust_reciprocity_interaction":{"metric":"trust_recip_interaction","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":90.0,"passed":true},"bounded_responses":{"metric":"bounded_check","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":100.0,"passed":true}},"validation_summary":{"metadata":{"version":"1.0.0","arxiv_id":"(forthcoming)","authors":"Vik Pant, Eric Yu","timestamp":"2026-02-16T21:50:05.858179","seed":42,"granularity":"standard"},"experimental":{"n_configurations":15625,"behavioral_targets":{"cooperation_emergence":{"metric":"cooperation_emerged","achieved":15235,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":97.504,"threshold":85.0,"passed":true},"defection_punishment":{"metric":"defection_punished","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":95.0,"passed":true},"forgiveness_dynamics":{"metric":"forgiveness_achieved","achieved":13728,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":87.8592,"threshold":80.0,"passed":true},"asymmetric_differentiation":{"metric":"asymmetric_differentiated","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":90.0,"passed":true},"trust_reciprocity_interaction":{"metric":"trust_recip_interaction","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":90.0,"passed":true},"bounded_responses":{"metric":"bounded_check","achieved":15625,"total":15625,"achievement_pct":100.0,"threshold":100.0,"passed":true}},"sensitivity":{"rho_0":{"final_coop_mean":{"r":0.4556107588621044,"p":0.0},"differentiation_ratio":{"r":-2.7755575615628914e-17,"p":1.0}},"eta":{"final_coop_mean":{"r":-0.22079025239883737,"p":8.227715666863663e-172},"differentiation_ratio":{"r":0.992606504765056,"p":0.0}},"kappa":{"final_coop_mean":{"r":0.3986527504103656,"p":0.0},"differentiation_ratio":{"r":-2.3418766925686896e-17,"p":1.0}},"k":{"final_coop_mean":{"r":-4.336808689942018e-19,"p":1.0},"differentiation_ratio":{"r":3.686287386450715e-18,"p":1.0}},"lambda_R":{"final_coop_mean":{"r":0.4556107588621044,"p":0.0},"differentiation_ratio":{"r":-9.75781955236954e-19,"p":1.0}},"T_0":{"final_coop_mean":{"r":0.18951971982727342,"p":2.7160332604544455e-126},"differentiation_ratio":{"r":-4.336808689942018e-18,"p":1.0}}}},"statistical_tests":{"paired_ttest":{"t_statistic":195.727889815941,"p_value":0.0,"df":15624,"mean":2.754534691727113,"std":0.801198217654913,"cohens_d":1.565823118527528},"bootstrap_ci":{"ci_95_lower":2.7415923344214006,"ci_95_upper":2.7669537844573076,"n_resamples":10000,"boot_mean":2.754397737032475,"boot_std":0.006472401299311639},"wilcoxon":{"w_statistic":122078125.0,"p_value":0.0,"significant_001":true}},"monte_carlo":{"n_trials":2000,"noise_level":0.15,"all_targets_pct":94.5,"mean_differentiation":1.9971032470478627,"std_differentiation":0.1208697321991127,"min_differentiation":1.8025207258963662,"success_count":1890},"functional_experiments":{"exp1_pd_cooperation":{"without_reciprocity":0.4090968638764874,"with_reciprocity":1.0,"payoff_ratio":2.4444088632806418,"validated":true},"exp2_asymmetric":{"high_dep_response":0.3149477921669579,"low_dep_response":0.06998839825932397,"differentiation_ratio":4.5,"validated":"True"},"exp3_memory_window":{"1":{"recovery_time":2,"within_2k":true},"3":{"recovery_time":2,"within_2k":true},"5":{"recovery_time":2,"within_2k":true},"10":{"recovery_time":2,"within_2k":true}},"exp4_trust_interaction":{"cooperation_by_trust":{"0.3":0.38106706301212107,"0.6":0.7214482770157942,"0.9":1.0},"variation_ratio":2.624210006751992,"validated":true},"exp5_team_production":{"without_reciprocity":1.1431182568010072,"with_reciprocity":3.0,"output_increase_pct":162.44003909056948,"validated":true}},"empirical":{"apple_score":43.0,"apple_percentage":84.31372549019608,"apple_passed":true},"summary":"\nTR-4 VALIDATION RESULTS:\n\n1. EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION (15,625 configurations):\n - Cooperation emergence: 97.5% (threshold >85%)\n - Defection punishment: 100.0% (threshold >95%)\n - Forgiveness dynamics: 87.9% (threshold >80%)\n - Asymmetric diff.: 100.0% (threshold >90%)\n - Trust-recip interaction: 100.0% (threshold >90%)\n - Bounded responses: 100.0% (threshold =100%)\n\n2. STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE:\n - t-test: p < 0.001\n - Cohen's d: 1.57 (large)\n - Wilcoxon signed-rank: p < 0.001\n\n3. MONTE CARLO ROBUSTNESS (2000 trials, +/-15% noise):\n - All targets met: 94.5%\n - Mean differentiation: 2.00 +/- 0.12\n\n4. FUNCTIONAL EXPERIMENTS: 5/5 completed\n\n5. EMPIRICAL VALIDATION (Apple iOS App Store):\n - Score: 43.0/51\n - Percentage: 84.3%\n - Status: PASSED\n\nVALIDATION COMPLETE.\n"}}
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case_study_calibration/renault_nissan_alliance.jsonl
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{"case_name":"renault_nissan_alliance","source_tr":"TR-2","tr_arxiv_id":"2510.24909","rubric_score_over_60":49,"rubric_accuracy_percent":81.7,"historical_correspondence":"81.7% rubric validation against historical record of Renault-Nissan Alliance 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{"case_name":"samsung_sony_slcd","source_tr":"TR-1 / TR-2 (partition-then-integrate)","tr_arxiv_id":"2510.18802","rubric_score_over_60":59,"rubric_accuracy_percent":98.3,"previous_rubric_score_over_60":58,"previous_rubric_accuracy_percent":96.7,"reconciliation_note":"58/60 reported in TR-1 v1; 59/60 after post-hoc re-scoring, see paper Appendix C.1","historical_correspondence":"98.3% rubric validation against S-LCD joint venture (2004-2011)","tr1_calibration":{"metadata":{"arxiv_id":"2510.18802","version":"1.0.0","authors":"Vik Pant, Eric Yu","timestamp":"2026-02-16T08:27:06.363128","seed":42,"n_trials":500},"exp1_tr_parameters":{"power":{"parameters":{"beta":0.75,"gamma":0.5},"baseline_actions":[0.31640532942294736,0.31640532942294736],"equilibrium_actions":[0.8329475359591768,0.8767045068355548],"validation":{"score":46,"max_score":60,"percentage":76.7,"categories":{"convergence":10,"cooperation":7,"value":9,"distribution":10,"strategic":10},"metrics":{"cooperation_increase_pct":170.17,"value_increase_pct":120.09,"actor0_share":0.5001,"asymmetry":0.0512,"baseline_mean":0.3164,"equilibrium_mean":0.8548},"in_historical_range":"False","converged":true}},"logarithmic":{"parameters":{"theta":20.0,"gamma":0.65},"baseline_actions":[18.99999841369799,18.99999841369799],"equilibrium_actions":[26.633376774688713,27.39914180691819],"validation":{"score":58,"max_score":60,"percentage":96.7,"categories":{"convergence":10,"cooperation":15,"value":13,"distribution":10,"strategic":10},"metrics":{"cooperation_increase_pct":42.19,"value_increase_pct":14.14,"actor0_share":0.5033,"asymmetry":0.0283,"baseline_mean":19.0,"equilibrium_mean":27.0163},"in_historical_range":"True","converged":true}},"comparison":{"log_advantage":12,"log_better":true}},"exp2_monte_carlo":{"n_trials":500,"noise_level":0.15,"seed":42,"power":{"mean":45.408,"std":1.4647648275405851,"ci_95":[42.0,46.0],"historical_alignment_pct":0.0},"logarithmic":{"mean":56.728,"std":1.9914858774292121,"ci_95":[54.0,58.0],"historical_alignment_pct":100.0},"comparison":{"log_wins":500,"power_wins":0,"ties":0,"log_win_rate":100.0}},"exp3_statistics":{"n_trials":500,"mean_difference":11.904,"std_difference":0.6121960470306878,"paired_ttest":{"t_statistic":434.3628459792724,"p_value":0.0,"significant_001":"True"},"wilcoxon":{"w_statistic":0.0,"p_value":2.8727194002435555e-108,"significant_001":"True"},"effect_size":{"cohens_d":19.44475149380258,"interpretation":"large"},"log_significantly_better":true},"exp4_convergence":{"n_starts":50,"power_convergence_rate":100.0,"log_convergence_rate":100.0,"power_converged":50,"log_converged":50},"exp5_multi_case":{"slcd":{"name":"S-LCD Joint Venture","power_score":46,"log_score":58,"winner":"logarithmic","power_in_range":"False","log_in_range":"True"},"symmetric_high":{"name":"Symmetric High Interdependence","power_score":38,"log_score":56,"winner":"logarithmic","power_in_range":"False","log_in_range":"True"},"symmetric_medium":{"name":"Symmetric Medium Interdependence","power_score":41,"log_score":54,"winner":"logarithmic","power_in_range":"False","log_in_range":"True"},"asymmetric":{"name":"Strong Asymmetry","power_score":49,"log_score":58,"winner":"logarithmic","power_in_range":"False","log_in_range":"True"},"platform_developer":{"name":"Platform-Developer Ecosystem","power_score":39,"log_score":51,"winner":"logarithmic","power_in_range":"False","log_in_range":"True"},"summary":{"total_cases":5,"log_wins":5,"power_wins":0,"ties":0}},"exp6_sensitivity":{"D_sony_samsung":{"values":[0.3,0.39999999999999997,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.7999999999999999,0.8999999999999999,1.0],"power_scores":[49,49,42,42,46,46,46,46],"log_scores":[58,58,54,54,58,58,58,58],"power_range":[42,49],"log_range":[54,58]},"gamma":{"values":[0.1,0.2,0.30000000000000004,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7000000000000001,0.8,0.9,1.0],"power_scores":[54,60,54,49,46,46,46,46,46,46],"log_scores":[42,44,49,49,53,58,60,60,57,55],"power_range":[46,60],"log_range":[42,60]}},"summary":{"validation_scores":{"power":46,"logarithmic":58,"difference":12},"cooperation_increase":{"power":170.17,"logarithmic":42.19},"monte_carlo":{"log_win_rate":100.0,"power_historical_alignment":0.0,"log_historical_alignment":100.0},"statistical_significance":{"p_value":0.0,"cohens_d":19.44475149380258,"log_significantly_better":true},"claims_verified":true}}}
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