""" 阶段4+5:实体追踪 + 仓位方向推断。 跨日追踪行为指纹实体,推断主力仓位变化方向。 """ from __future__ import annotations from collections import defaultdict from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple import json import os import pickle from typing import Dict, List, Tuple import numpy as np import pandas as pd class EntityTracker: """跨日实体追踪器。维护从每日簇到持久实体的映射。 持久化说明: - save_state() 保存完整状态为 pickle(可恢复继续追踪) - 数据表通过 get_*() 方法导出为 parquet(浏览/分析用) """ def __init__(self, inactive_threshold: int = 5): self.inactive_threshold = inactive_threshold # entity_id → EntityInfo self.entities: Dict[int, dict] = {} # (date, cluster_id) → entity_id self.cluster_registry: Dict[Tuple[int, int], int] = {} # date → set of entity_ids active that day self.daily_active: Dict[int, set] = defaultdict(set) # date → list of matches recorded self.daily_matches: Dict[int, list] = defaultdict(list) self._next_eid = 0 # accumulated daily signals self._processed_dates: List[int] = [] # metadata self.meta: dict = { "version": 1, "stock": "600809.SH", "inactive_threshold": inactive_threshold, } # ---- public API ---- def process_day( self, date: int, clusters: Dict[int, dict], matches: List[Tuple[int, int, int, float]], # matches: [(prev_date, prev_cid, curr_cid, cost), ...] ) -> Dict[int, int]: """ 处理一个交易日。 Args: date: 当前日期 YYYYMMDD clusters: {cid: centroid_info_dict} 当日聚类结果 matches: 跨日匹配对列表 Returns: {cid: entity_id} 当日簇到实体的映射 """ cid_to_entity: Dict[int, int] = {} matched_cids: set = set() # 1. 处理匹配:延续已有实体 for prev_date, prev_cid, curr_cid, cost in matches: eid = self.cluster_registry.get((prev_date, prev_cid)) if eid is None: # 连不上已有实体,创建新的 eid = self._create_entity(date, clusters[curr_cid]) else: self._update_entity(eid, date, clusters[curr_cid], cost) self.cluster_registry[(date, curr_cid)] = eid cid_to_entity[curr_cid] = eid matched_cids.add(curr_cid) # 2. 未匹配的当日簇 → 新实体 for cid, info in clusters.items(): if cid not in matched_cids: eid = self._create_entity(date, info) self.cluster_registry[(date, cid)] = eid cid_to_entity[cid] = eid # 3. 记录当日活跃实体 active = set(cid_to_entity.values()) self.daily_active[date] = active self._processed_dates.append(date) return cid_to_entity def compute_position_signal( self, date: int, daily_volume: float | None = None, ) -> dict: """ 计算当日仓位方向推断。 Returns: {"score": float, "bid_entities": int, "ask_entities": int, "accumulation_entities": list[int], "distribution_entities": list[int]} """ active = self.daily_active.get(date, set()) if not active: return {"score": 0.0, "bid_entities": 0, "ask_entities": 0, "accumulation_entities": [], "distribution_entities": []} bid_score = 0.0 ask_score = 0.0 bid_entities = [] ask_entities = [] for eid in active: e = self.entities[eid] # 方向:bid = 承接/吸筹, ask = 出货/派发 side = self._dominant_side(eid) # 金额趋势:最近 vs 最初 growth = self._amount_growth(eid) # 实体金额权重(log 压缩) weight = np.log1p(e.get("total_amount_latest", 0)) if side == "bid": bid_score += growth * weight if growth > 0: bid_entities.append(eid) else: ask_score += growth * weight if growth > 0: ask_entities.append(eid) raw = bid_score - ask_score # z-score over recent window score = float(raw) return { "score": score, "bid_entities": len([e for e in active if self._dominant_side(e) == "bid"]), "ask_entities": len([e for e in active if self._dominant_side(e) == "ask"]), "accumulation_entities": bid_entities, "distribution_entities": ask_entities, } def get_active_entities(self, date: int) -> List[int]: """获取某日活跃实体 ID 列表。""" return sorted(self.daily_active.get(date, set())) def get_entity_timeline(self) -> pd.DataFrame: """导出实体生命周期表。""" rows = [] for eid, e in self.entities.items(): rows.append({ "entity_id": eid, "first_seen": e["first_seen"], "last_seen": e["last_seen"], "active_days": e["active_days"], "total_amount_latest": e.get("total_amount_latest", 0), "total_amount_first": e.get("total_amount_first", 0), "amount_growth": self._amount_growth(eid), "dominant_side": self._dominant_side(eid), "bid_ratio": e.get("bid_ratio", 0), "avg_cost": e.get("avg_match_cost", 0), "status": "active" if self._is_active(e["last_seen"]) else "inactive", }) return pd.DataFrame(rows).sort_values("entity_id") def get_daily_signals(self) -> pd.DataFrame: """导出每日仓位信号表。""" rows = [] for date in sorted(self._processed_dates): sig = self.compute_position_signal(date) sig["date"] = date sig["n_active_entities"] = len(self.daily_active.get(date, set())) sig["n_total_entities"] = len(self.entities) rows.append(sig) df = pd.DataFrame(rows) # rolling z-score if len(df) > 20: df["score_z"] = ( (df["score"] - df["score"].rolling(20, min_periods=5).mean()) / df["score"].rolling(20, min_periods=5).std().replace(0, 1) ) else: df["score_z"] = 0.0 return df # ---- internal ---- def _create_entity(self, date: int, cluster_info: dict) -> int: eid = self._next_eid self._next_eid += 1 amount = cluster_info.get("total_amount", 0) self.entities[eid] = { "id": eid, "first_seen": date, "last_seen": date, "active_days": 1, "total_amount_latest": amount, "total_amount_first": amount, "amounts": [(date, amount)], "centroids": [(date, cluster_info.get("centroid", np.zeros(7)))], "dominant_sides": [cluster_info.get("dominant_side", "unknown")], "bid_ratio": cluster_info.get("bid_ratio", 0.5), "match_costs": [], "cluster_count": 1, } return eid def _update_entity(self, eid: int, date: int, cluster_info: dict, cost: float): e = self.entities[eid] e["last_seen"] = date e["active_days"] += 1 amount = cluster_info.get("total_amount", 0) e["total_amount_latest"] = amount e["amounts"].append((date, amount)) e["centroids"].append((date, cluster_info.get("centroid", np.zeros(7)))) e["dominant_sides"].append(cluster_info.get("dominant_side", "unknown")) e["bid_ratio"] = ( 0.7 * e["bid_ratio"] + 0.3 * cluster_info.get("bid_ratio", 0.5) ) # EMA e["match_costs"].append(cost) e["cluster_count"] += 1 e["avg_match_cost"] = float(np.mean(e["match_costs"])) if e["match_costs"] else 0.0 def _dominant_side(self, eid: int) -> str: e = self.entities[eid] sides = e.get("dominant_sides", []) if not sides: return "unknown" bid_count = sum(1 for s in sides if s == "bid") ask_count = sum(1 for s in sides if s == "ask") return "bid" if bid_count >= ask_count else "ask" def _amount_growth(self, eid: int) -> float: """金额增长趋势:最近 vs 最早(log 空间比值)。""" e = self.entities[eid] first = e.get("total_amount_first", 0) latest = e.get("total_amount_latest", 0) if first <= 0: return 0.0 return float(np.log1p(latest) - np.log1p(first)) def _is_active(self, last_seen: int) -> bool: """判断实体是否仍活跃(最近 N 天内出现过)。""" if not self._processed_dates: return True latest = max(self._processed_dates) try: idx = self._processed_dates.index(last_seen) return (len(self._processed_dates) - 1 - idx) <= self.inactive_threshold except ValueError: return False # ---- 持久化 ---- def save_state(self, path: str): """保存完整追踪器状态(pickle),可恢复继续追踪。""" os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path) or ".", exist_ok=True) state = { "entities": self.entities, "cluster_registry": dict(self.cluster_registry), "daily_active": {int(k): list(v) for k, v in self.daily_active.items()}, "daily_matches": {int(k): v for k, v in self.daily_matches.items()}, "_next_eid": self._next_eid, "_processed_dates": self._processed_dates, "inactive_threshold": self.inactive_threshold, "meta": self.meta, } with open(path, "wb") as f: pickle.dump(state, f, protocol=5) print(f"Tracker state saved to {path} ({os.path.getsize(path)/1024/1024:.1f} MB)") @classmethod def load_state(cls, path: str) -> "EntityTracker": """加载追踪器状态,恢复继续追踪。""" with open(path, "rb") as f: state = pickle.load(f) tracker = cls(inactive_threshold=state.get("inactive_threshold", 5)) tracker.entities = state["entities"] tracker.cluster_registry = state["cluster_registry"] tracker.daily_active = defaultdict( set, {int(k): set(v) for k, v in state["daily_active"].items()} ) tracker.daily_matches = defaultdict( list, {int(k): v for k, v in state["daily_matches"].items()} ) tracker._next_eid = state["_next_eid"] tracker._processed_dates = state["_processed_dates"] tracker.meta = state.get("meta", {}) return tracker def get_cluster_registry_table(self) -> pd.DataFrame: """导出簇注册表为 DataFrame。""" rows = [] for (date, cid), eid in sorted(self.cluster_registry.items()): e = self.entities.get(eid, {}) rows.append({ "date": date, "cluster_id": cid, "entity_id": eid, "entity_first_seen": e.get("first_seen"), "entity_dominant_side": self._dominant_side(eid) if eid in self.entities else "unknown", }) return pd.DataFrame(rows)