""" TSFM MCP Server — Time-Series Forecasting and anomaly detection for Smart Grid transformers. TSFM = Time-Series Foundation Model. In the full project this server will call a fine-tuned TSFM (e.g., Chronos or a Llama-based forecaster served via vLLM). This skeleton implements lightweight statistical baselines so the server is functional end-to-end for scenario testing before the model is integrated. Baseline methods used here: - RUL forecast: returns the label from rul_labels.csv + a linear projection - Anomaly detection: z-score over a rolling window - Trend analysis: linear regression slope over a requested time period Tools exposed to the LLM agent: get_rul — current remaining useful life estimate for a transformer forecast_rul — project RUL N days into the future detect_anomalies — flag sensor readings that exceed a z-score threshold trend_analysis — slope and direction of a sensor over a time window Data source: data/processed/rul_labels.csv, sensor_readings.csv """ from __future__ import annotations import sys from pathlib import Path sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2])) import numpy as np import pandas as pd from mcp.server.fastmcp import FastMCP from data.constants import HI_FULL_HEALTH_DAYS from mcp_servers.base import load_rul_labels, load_sensor_readings mcp = FastMCP("smart-grid-tsfm") _rul: pd.DataFrame | None = None _readings: pd.DataFrame | None = None def _confidence_from_history(num_points: int, horizon_days: int = 0) -> float: """Simple bounded baseline confidence for deterministic synthetic labels.""" history_factor = min(0.99, 0.55 + num_points / 120) horizon_penalty = min(0.45, max(0, horizon_days) / 900) return round(max(0.1, history_factor - horizon_penalty), 3) def _get_rul() -> pd.DataFrame: global _rul if _rul is None: _rul = load_rul_labels() return _rul def _get_readings() -> pd.DataFrame: global _readings if _readings is None: _readings = load_sensor_readings() return _readings # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Tools # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @mcp.tool() def get_rul(transformer_id: str) -> dict: """ Return the most recent remaining useful life (RUL) estimate for a transformer. RUL is sourced from the FDD & RUL dataset labels and represents the number of days of useful operation remaining before the transformer is expected to require major maintenance or replacement. Args: transformer_id: Asset identifier, e.g. "T-018". Returns: Dict with keys: transformer_id, as_of_date, rul_days, health_index, fdd_category, interpretation. Returns an error dict if not found. """ df = _get_rul() subset = df[df["transformer_id"] == transformer_id].sort_values("timestamp") if subset.empty: return {"error": f"No RUL data found for '{transformer_id}'."} latest = subset.iloc[-1] rul_days = int(latest["rul_days"]) fdd_category = ( int(latest["fdd_category"]) if pd.notna(latest["fdd_category"]) else None ) as_of_ts = latest["timestamp"] if rul_days >= 730: interpretation = "Healthy — no immediate action required." elif rul_days >= 180: interpretation = "Aging — schedule routine inspection within 6 months." elif rul_days >= 30: interpretation = "Degraded — maintenance recommended within 30 days." else: interpretation = "Critical — immediate inspection required." return { "transformer_id": transformer_id, "as_of_date": str(as_of_ts.date()) if pd.notna(as_of_ts) else None, "rul_days": rul_days, "health_index": round(float(latest["health_index"]), 4), "fdd_category": fdd_category, "confidence": _confidence_from_history(len(subset)), "interpretation": interpretation, } @mcp.tool() def forecast_rul(transformer_id: str, horizon_days: int = 30) -> dict: """ Project the RUL forward by `horizon_days` using a linear degradation model. This is a statistical baseline. The full project will replace this with a TSFM (Time-Series Foundation Model) inference call via vLLM. Args: transformer_id: Asset identifier, e.g. "T-007". horizon_days: Number of days to project forward (default 30, max 365). Returns: Dict with keys: transformer_id, current_rul_days, forecast_date, projected_rul_days, projected_health_index, confidence, method. """ df = _get_rul() subset = df[df["transformer_id"] == transformer_id].sort_values("timestamp") if subset.empty: return {"error": f"No RUL data found for '{transformer_id}'."} if horizon_days < 0 or horizon_days > 365: return { "error": "horizon_days must be between 0 and 365.", "provided_horizon_days": horizon_days, } latest = subset.iloc[-1] current_rul = int(latest["rul_days"]) latest_ts = latest["timestamp"] # Linear model: assume 1 RUL-day consumed per calendar day projected_rul = max(0, current_rul - horizon_days) forecast_date = ( pd.to_datetime(latest_ts) + pd.Timedelta(days=horizon_days) if pd.notna(latest_ts) else None ) projected_hi = ( 0.0 if current_rul <= 0 else round(min(1.0, projected_rul / HI_FULL_HEALTH_DAYS), 4) ) return { "transformer_id": transformer_id, "current_rul_days": current_rul, "forecast_date": ( str(forecast_date.date()) if forecast_date is not None else None ), "projected_rul_days": projected_rul, "projected_health_index": projected_hi, "confidence": _confidence_from_history(len(subset), horizon_days), "method": "linear_degradation_baseline", } @mcp.tool() def detect_anomalies( transformer_id: str, sensor_id: str, window_size: int = 24, z_threshold: float = 3.0, ) -> dict: """ Detect anomalous sensor readings using a rolling z-score method. A reading is flagged as anomalous when it deviates more than `z_threshold` standard deviations from the rolling mean over `window_size` readings. Args: transformer_id: Asset identifier, e.g. "T-016". sensor_id: Sensor to analyse, e.g. "dga_h2_ppm". window_size: Rolling window size in readings (default 24). z_threshold: Number of standard deviations to flag (default 3.0). Returns: Dict with keys: transformer_id, sensor_id, total_readings, anomaly_count, anomaly_rate_pct, anomalies (list of flagged readings with timestamp, value, z_score). """ df = _get_readings() subset = ( df[(df["transformer_id"] == transformer_id) & (df["sensor_id"] == sensor_id)] .copy() .sort_values("timestamp") ) if subset.empty: return { "error": f"No readings for transformer='{transformer_id}' " f"sensor='{sensor_id}'." } vals = subset["value"].astype(float) rolling_mean = vals.rolling(window_size, min_periods=1).mean() rolling_std = vals.rolling(window_size, min_periods=1).std() rolling_std = rolling_std.where( rolling_std > 0, other=rolling_mean.abs() * 0.001 + 1e-3 ) z_scores = ((vals - rolling_mean) / rolling_std).abs() anomaly_mask = z_scores > z_threshold anomalies_df = subset[anomaly_mask][["timestamp", "value"]].copy() anomalies_df["z_score"] = z_scores[anomaly_mask].round(3).values anomalies = anomalies_df.head(50).to_dict(orient="records") # Ensure timestamps are strings for row in anomalies: row["timestamp"] = str(row["timestamp"]) return { "transformer_id": transformer_id, "sensor_id": sensor_id, "window_size": window_size, "z_threshold": z_threshold, "total_readings": len(subset), "anomaly_count": int(anomaly_mask.sum()), "anomaly_rate_pct": round(100 * anomaly_mask.mean(), 2), "anomalies": anomalies, } @mcp.tool() def trend_analysis( transformer_id: str, sensor_id: str, start_time: str | None = None, end_time: str | None = None, ) -> dict: """ Compute the trend (slope) of a sensor's readings over a time window. Uses ordinary least squares linear regression over the selected readings. A positive slope means the sensor value is increasing over time. Args: transformer_id: Asset identifier, e.g. "T-012". sensor_id: Sensor to analyse, e.g. "dga_c2h2_ppm". start_time: ISO-8601 start of window (optional). end_time: ISO-8601 end of window (optional). Returns: Dict with keys: transformer_id, sensor_id, num_readings, start_time, end_time, mean_value, min_value, max_value, slope_per_day, direction ("increasing"/"decreasing"/"stable"), r_squared. """ df = _get_readings() subset = df[ (df["transformer_id"] == transformer_id) & (df["sensor_id"] == sensor_id) ].copy() if subset.empty: return { "error": f"No readings for transformer='{transformer_id}' " f"sensor='{sensor_id}'." } subset["timestamp"] = pd.to_datetime(subset["timestamp"]) if start_time: subset = subset[subset["timestamp"] >= pd.to_datetime(start_time)] if end_time: subset = subset[subset["timestamp"] <= pd.to_datetime(end_time)] subset = subset.sort_values("timestamp") if len(subset) < 2: return { "error": "Not enough readings in the specified window for trend analysis." } # Convert timestamps to numeric (days since first reading) t0 = subset["timestamp"].iloc[0] days = (subset["timestamp"] - t0).dt.total_seconds() / 86400 vals = subset["value"].astype(float) # OLS: slope and R² coeffs = np.polyfit(days, vals, 1) slope = float(coeffs[0]) y_hat = np.polyval(coeffs, days) ss_res = float(np.sum((vals - y_hat) ** 2)) ss_tot = float(np.sum((vals - vals.mean()) ** 2)) r2 = 1 - ss_res / ss_tot if ss_tot > 0 else 0.0 # Direction: stable if slope < 1% of mean per day mean_val = float(vals.mean()) rel_slope = abs(slope) / (mean_val + 1e-9) if rel_slope < 0.01: direction = "stable" elif slope > 0: direction = "increasing" else: direction = "decreasing" return { "transformer_id": transformer_id, "sensor_id": sensor_id, "num_readings": len(subset), "start_time": str(subset["timestamp"].iloc[0]), "end_time": str(subset["timestamp"].iloc[-1]), "mean_value": round(mean_val, 4), "min_value": round(float(vals.min()), 4), "max_value": round(float(vals.max()), 4), "slope_per_day": round(slope, 6), "direction": direction, "r_squared": round(r2, 4), } # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Entry point # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- if __name__ == "__main__": mcp.run()