| { |
| "date": "2026-04-02", |
| "timestamp": "2026-04-02T21:10:43.624Z", |
| "index": { |
| "uncertainty": 22, |
| "geopolitical": 62, |
| "momentum": 0.06 |
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| "traditional": [ |
| { |
| "symbol": "SPY", |
| "price": 655.13, |
| "changePct": 0.81 |
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| { |
| "symbol": "VIXY", |
| "price": 33.54, |
| "changePct": -1.84 |
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| { |
| "symbol": "TLT", |
| "price": 86.45, |
| "changePct": -0.18 |
| }, |
| { |
| "symbol": "GLD", |
| "price": 436.88, |
| "changePct": 1.82 |
| }, |
| { |
| "symbol": "USO", |
| "price": 123.39, |
| "changePct": -2.7 |
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| ], |
| "topics": [ |
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| "name": "Geopolitical", |
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| { |
| "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?", |
| "ticker": "0xd9fb1184af0064e5e3", |
| "price": 10, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 359444.58327400027, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
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| { |
| "title": "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?", |
| "ticker": "0x6bd56627aa21311850", |
| "price": 11, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 55123.256466, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
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| { |
| "title": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?", |
| "ticker": "0x5db999fad322cea291", |
| "price": 55, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 203694.41991799997, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026", |
| "ticker": "0xb23587fc1e319cdf9a", |
| "price": 50, |
| "delta": -6, |
| "volume": 13731, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": false |
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| ], |
| "totalChanges": 35 |
| }, |
| { |
| "name": "Economy", |
| "movers": [ |
| { |
| "title": "Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease", |
| "ticker": "0xd72622d154dfe65b9c", |
| "price": 0, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 1022313.8407500003, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
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| { |
| "title": "Fed decision in April?: No change", |
| "ticker": "0x36e8ca24d2a13435f5", |
| "price": 98, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 676012.0539590003, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increase", |
| "ticker": "0xd4d00e5bf8b960cc37", |
| "price": 1, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 613864.49299, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "How high will inflation get in 2026?: Above 6%", |
| "ticker": "0xa7abe7ea40a00434c7", |
| "price": 22, |
| "delta": 8, |
| "volume": 4223, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
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| } |
| ], |
| "totalChanges": 56 |
| }, |
| { |
| "name": "Energy", |
| "movers": [ |
| { |
| "title": "EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford", |
| "ticker": "0x11801110e49798883d", |
| "price": 1, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 0, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Oil", |
| "ticker": "USO", |
| "price": 123.39, |
| "delta": -342, |
| "volume": 0, |
| "venue": "traditional", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?", |
| "ticker": "KXAAAGASD-26APR02-4.080", |
| "price": 55, |
| "delta": 14, |
| "volume": 4216, |
| "venue": "kalshi", |
| "isAnchor": false |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Will the natural gas close price be above $2.725 on Apr 2, 2026 at 5pm", |
| "ticker": "KXNATGASD-26APR0217-T2.725", |
| "price": 59, |
| "delta": 59, |
| "volume": 0, |
| "venue": "kalshi", |
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| }, |
| { |
| "name": "Elections", |
| "movers": [ |
| { |
| "title": "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence", |
| "ticker": "0x41c6341dd79903aca4", |
| "price": 1, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 758676.4133980002, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock", |
| "ticker": "0xdce84960dce38aa4a5", |
| "price": 1, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 713703.504902, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff", |
| "ticker": "0x74dba1ce1ae9dd5354", |
| "price": 5, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 660826.0323, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi", |
| "ticker": "0x79e008f552c7459175", |
| "price": 100, |
| "delta": 46, |
| "volume": 186587, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": false |
| } |
| ], |
| "totalChanges": 298 |
| }, |
| { |
| "name": "Crypto", |
| "movers": [ |
| { |
| "title": "What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m", |
| "ticker": "0xbb57ccf5853a85487b", |
| "price": 49, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 20232.630437, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?", |
| "ticker": "0x4bd2d6744cfb40bd33", |
| "price": 5, |
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| "volume": 5974.227549, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
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| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus", |
| "ticker": "0x0b4987432902340aec", |
| "price": 100, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 4340.12, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
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| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Proph3t", |
| "ticker": "0xd8eb7920b5dabee320", |
| "price": 96, |
| "delta": 56, |
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| "venue": "polymarket", |
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| } |
| ], |
| "totalChanges": 32 |
| }, |
| { |
| "name": "Tech", |
| "movers": [ |
| { |
| "title": "Largest Company end of June?: Apple", |
| "ticker": "0xc2db6688c6df422104", |
| "price": 9, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 39251.967257, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
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| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026", |
| "ticker": "0x349be0f6283a219826", |
| "price": 97, |
| "delta": -5, |
| "volume": 11285.145936000003, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M", |
| "ticker": "0x6c5974b64df0ec88ca", |
| "price": 2, |
| "delta": 0, |
| "volume": 11003.224719000002, |
| "venue": "polymarket", |
| "isAnchor": true |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: April 30", |
| "ticker": "0x8cc19466564cb36bae", |
| "price": 47, |
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| "venue": "polymarket", |
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| } |
| ], |
| "totalChanges": 38 |
| } |
| ], |
| "topEdges": [ |
| { |
| "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ", |
| "edge": 85, |
| "direction": "no", |
| "price": 100 |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ", |
| "edge": 82, |
| "direction": "no", |
| "price": 97 |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor", |
| "edge": 80, |
| "direction": "yes", |
| "price": 15 |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls ", |
| "edge": 78, |
| "direction": "yes", |
| "price": 2 |
| }, |
| { |
| "title": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor", |
| "edge": 75, |
| "direction": "yes", |
| "price": 15 |
| } |
| ], |
| "divergences": [ |
| { |
| "description": "Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling" |
| }, |
| { |
| "description": "Stocks and gold both up (SPY +0.81%, GLD +1.82%) \u2014 unusual risk-on + haven bid" |
| }, |
| { |
| "description": "Equity-oil divergence: SPY +0.81% vs Oil -2.7%" |
| } |
| ], |
| "markdown": "# World State \u2014 2026-04-02T21:06 UTC\n\nSF Index: Uncertainty 22/100 | Geopolitical Risk 62/100 | Momentum +0.06\n\nMarkets: SPY $655.13 (+0.81%) | VIXY $33.54 (-1.84%) | TLT $86.45 (-0.18%) | GLD $436.88 (+1.82%) | USO $123.39 (-2.7%)\n\n## Geopolitical\n- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?: 10c [polymarket]\n- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?: 11c [polymarket]\n- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?: 55c [polymarket]\n- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: June 30, 2026: 50c (-6c) [polymarket]\n\n## Economy\n- Fed decision in April?: 50+ bps decrease: 0c [polymarket]\n- Fed decision in April?: No change: 98c [polymarket]\n- Fed decision in April?: 25+ bps increase: 1c [polymarket]\n- How high will inflation get in 2026?: Above 6%: 22c (+8c) [polymarket]\n\n## Energy\n- EPL \u2013 Which Clubs Get Relegated?: Brentford: 1c [polymarket]\n- Oil: 123.39c (-342c) [traditional]\n- Will average **gas prices** be above $4.080?: 55c (+14c) [kalshi]\n- Will the natural gas close price be above $2.725 on Apr 2, 2026 at 5pm: 59c (+59c) [kalshi]\n\n## Elections\n- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Mike Pence: 1c [polymarket]\n- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock: 1c [polymarket]\n- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff: 5c [polymarket]\n- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pam Bondi: 100c (+46c) [polymarket]\n\n## Crypto\n- What will happen before GTA VI?: Bitcoin hits $1m: 49c [polymarket]\n- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?: 5c [polymarket]\n- Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Sisyphus: 100c [polymarket]\n- Crypto Twitter mindshare ATH by March 31, 2026?: Proph3t: 96c (+56c) [polymarket]\n\n## Tech\n- Largest Company end of June?: Apple: 9c [polymarket]\n- Will USD.AI launch a token by ___ ?: April 30, 2026: 97c (-5c) [polymarket]\n- USD.AI FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M: 2c [polymarket]\n- SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12: April 30: 47c (-8c) [polymarket]\n\n## Mispriced (top edges)\n- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls : 100c, model says no (85c edge)\n- Will the 7-day moving average of daily vessel transit calls : 97c, model says no (82c edge)\n- Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor: 15c, model says yes (80c edge)\n\n## Divergence Alerts\n- Energy sector split: some contracts rising while others falling\n- Stocks and gold both up (SPY +0.81%, GLD +1.82%) \u2014 unusual risk-on + haven bid\n- Equity-oil divergence: SPY +0.81% vs Oil -2.7%\n\n---\nSource: SimpleFunctions World Model \u2014 9,706 markets, calibrated by real money | simplefunctions.dev\nDrill down: GET /api/public/query?q=TOPIC | /api/public/market/TICKER | /api/public/contagion", |
| "markdownTokenEstimate": 667 |
| } |
