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LEADERBOARD.md

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ candidate space. All numbers are held-out `test`, 95% bootstrap CI.
 
 | Task | GEMEO | Strong baseline | Margin |
 |---|---:|---:|---:|
-| **New-onset prediction** (Top-1) | **60.1%** [58.9, 61.3] | 38.2% (frequency) | **+21.9 pp** |
+| **New-onset prediction** (Top-1) | **56.8%** [54.5, 59.2] | 38.2% (frequency) | **+18.6 pp** |
 | **T2 — Will-change** (AUROC) | **0.906** | 0.889 (count-based) | +0.017 |
 | **T5 — Transition-within-12mo** (AUROC) | **0.827** | 0.790 (count-based) | +0.037 |
 | **T4 — Treatment discontinuation** (AUROC) | **0.838** | 0.696 (count-based) | **+0.142** |
@@ -38,8 +38,8 @@ world model is built to capture.
 ## New-onset — predicting genuinely new events
 
 Predicting the **first** occurrence of a clinical event (repeats excluded,
-model's native MEDS tokenization): recurrence-aware GEMEO scores Top-1 **60.1%**
-vs a 38.2% frequency baseline (+21.9 pp, non-overlapping CI). This is the
+model's native MEDS tokenization): recurrence-aware GEMEO scores Top-1 **56.8%**
+vs a 38.2% frequency baseline (+18.6 pp, non-overlapping CI). This is the
 repetition-immune metric — the model is rewarded for novelty, not for echoing the
 patient's past.