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NAICS_Contagion_Edges_GitHub.csv ADDED
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NAICS_Contagion_Map.py ADDED
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1
+ import pandas as pd
2
+ import numpy as np
3
+ import os
4
+ from difflib import get_close_matches
5
+
6
+ def get_test_materials():
7
+ """
8
+ Returns the specific material commodity mappings for anchor industries.
9
+ """
10
+ return {
11
+ "336110": [
12
+ ("MAT_STL_01", "Steel", "720839", "CME: HRC", "China", "54%", "India", "6%", "Japan", "5%", "China", "54%", "India", "6%", "Japan", "5%", "Bulk Rail / Container Ships", "High", "MAT_ALU_01", "Medium", ["sheet metal", "chassis"]),
13
+ ("MAT_ALU_01", "Aluminum", "760120", "LME: ALI", "China", "59%", "India", "6%", "Russia", "5%", "China", "59%", "India", "6%", "Russia", "5%", "Container Ships / Rail", "High", "MAT_STL_01", "Medium", ["alloy ingots", "lightweighting"]),
14
+ ("MAT_COP_01", "Copper", "740311", "COMEX: HG", "Chile", "24%", "Peru", "10%", "China", "9%", "China", "42%", "Chile", "10%", "Japan", "6%", "Container Ships / Rail", "High", "MAT_ALU_01", "Low", ["EV wiring harness", "red metal"]),
15
+ ("MAT_LIT_01", "Lithium Carbonate", "283691", "CME: LCO", "Australia", "47%", "Chile", "26%", "China", "16%", "China", "65%", "Chile", "29%", "Argentina", "5%", "Container Ships", "High", "MAT_SOD_01", "Low", ["EV inputs", "battery metals"]),
16
+ ("MAT_COB_01", "Cobalt", "810520", "LME: CO", "Congo (DRC)", "70%", "Indonesia", "5%", "Russia", "4%", "China", "75%", "Finland", "10%", "Canada", "5%", "General Cargo Ships", "High", "None", "Low", ["battery cathode", "superalloys"]),
17
+ ("MAT_NIC_01", "Nickel", "750210", "LME: NI", "Indonesia", "48%", "Philippines", "10%", "Russia", "6%", "China", "35%", "Indonesia", "30%", "Japan", "8%", "Bulk / Container Ships", "High", "None", "Low", ["EV cathode", "stainless steel"]),
18
+ ("MAT_PAL_01", "Palladium", "711031", "NYMEX: PA", "Russia", "40%", "South Africa", "38%", "Canada", "9%", "Russia", "40%", "South Africa", "38%", "USA", "10%", "Air Cargo", "Medium", "MAT_PLT_01", "High", ["catalytic converters", "emissions"]),
19
+ ("MAT_PLT_01", "Platinum", "711011", "NYMEX: PL", "South Africa", "70%", "Russia", "10%", "Zimbabwe", "8%", "South Africa", "70%", "UK", "10%", "Russia", "10%", "Air Cargo", "Medium", "MAT_PAL_01", "Medium", ["catalytic converters"]),
20
+ ("MAT_RUB_01", "Natural Rubber", "400122", "SGX: TF", "Thailand", "35%", "Indonesia", "25%", "Vietnam", "8%", "Thailand", "35%", "Indonesia", "25%", "Malaysia", "10%", "Container Ships", "Low", "MAT_SYN_01", "High", ["tires", "vulcanized rubber"]),
21
+ ("MAT_PLA_01", "Polypropylene", "390210", "LME: PP", "China", "30%", "USA", "12%", "Saudi Arabia", "6%", "China", "30%", "USA", "12%", "EU", "10%", "Container Ships / Rail", "Low", "MAT_PLA_02", "High", ["auto bumpers", "plastics"])
22
+ ],
23
+ "324110": [
24
+ ("MAT_CRD_01", "Crude Oil", "270900", "NYMEX: CL", "USA", "20%", "Saudi Arabia", "12%", "Russia", "11%", "USA", "20%", "China", "18%", "India", "7%", "Oil Tankers / Pipelines", "High", "None", "Low", ["fossil fuels", "unrefined"]),
25
+ ("MAT_NGS_01", "Natural Gas", "271121", "NYMEX: NG", "USA", "24%", "Russia", "17%", "Iran", "6%", "USA", "24%", "Russia", "17%", "Qatar", "6%", "Pipelines / LNG Carriers", "High", "None", "Low", ["LNG", "methane", "energy input"]),
26
+ ("MAT_PLT_01", "Platinum", "711011", "NYMEX: PL", "South Africa", "70%", "Russia", "10%", "Zimbabwe", "8%", "South Africa", "70%", "UK", "10%", "Russia", "10%", "Air Cargo", "Medium", "MAT_PAL_01", "Medium", ["refining catalysts", "cracking"])
27
+ ],
28
+ "334410": [
29
+ ("MAT_SIL_01", "Polysilicon", "280461", "Unlisted", "China", "80%", "USA", "6%", "Germany", "5%", "China", "80%", "USA", "6%", "Taiwan", "5%", "Container Ships", "High", "None", "Low", ["silicon wafers", "semiconductors"]),
30
+ ("MAT_GAL_01", "Gallium", "811292", "Unlisted", "China", "98%", "Russia", "1%", "Japan", "1%", "China", "98%", "USA", "1%", "Japan", "1%", "Air Cargo", "Medium", "None", "Low", ["gallium arsenide", "wafers"]),
31
+ ("MAT_GER_01", "Germanium", "811292", "Unlisted", "China", "60%", "Russia", "10%", "USA", "5%", "China", "60%", "USA", "10%", "Canada", "5%", "Air Cargo", "Medium", "None", "Low", ["metalloids", "fiber optics"]),
32
+ ("MAT_TAN_01", "Tantalum", "810320", "Unlisted", "Congo (DRC)", "40%", "Rwanda", "20%", "Brazil", "15%", "China", "30%", "USA", "25%", "Germany", "15%", "Air Cargo / Container Ships", "Low", "MAT_NIO_01", "Medium", ["capacitors", "electronics"]),
33
+ ("MAT_HEL_01", "Helium", "280429", "Unlisted", "USA", "50%", "Qatar", "30%", "Algeria", "10%", "USA", "50%", "Qatar", "30%", "Algeria", "10%", "Cryogenic ISO Containers", "Low", "None", "Low", ["noble gas", "wafer manufacturing"])
34
+ ]
35
+ }
36
+
37
+ # Pre-computed Contagion Scores
38
+ #
39
+ # CONTAGION SCORE EXPLANATION (For GitHub Documentation):
40
+ # The Contagion Score (1.0 to 10.0) quantifies supply chain volatility.
41
+ # - High Scores (8.0+): Indicate systemic anchor nodes. A disruption here causes cascading failure.
42
+ # Driven by high Upstream Concentration Risk (e.g., dependent on highly monopolized materials like Gallium),
43
+ # massive Downstream Out-Degree Connectivity (e.g., Petroleum touches everything), and high Substitutability Friction.
44
+ # - Medium Scores (5.0-7.9): Intermediate processors with some alternative pathways.
45
+ # - Low Scores (1.0-4.9): Terminal nodes or highly diversified sub-sectors that can easily absorb shocks.
46
+ # Note: Calculation mathematics are proprietary and black-boxed in this open-source drop.
47
+ CONTAGION_SCORES = {
48
+ '331110': 9.5, # Iron & Steel Mills
49
+ '332710': 8.8, # Machine Shops
50
+ '333914': 8.2, # Pumps
51
+ '336110': 8.5, # Auto Manufacturing
52
+ '324110': 9.0, # Petro Refineries
53
+ '334410': 9.2 # Semiconductor
54
+ }
55
+
56
+ def get_contagion_score(naics_code):
57
+ return CONTAGION_SCORES.get(str(naics_code).strip('.0'), round(np.random.uniform(2.0, 5.0), 1))
58
+
59
+ def assign_supply_chain_tier(naics_code, naics_subsector, naics_industry):
60
+ """
61
+ Evaluates the structural position of the industry to assign a Supply Chain Tier.
62
+ Tier 4 is reserved for Raw Materials.
63
+ """
64
+ code_str = str(naics_code)
65
+ ns = naics_subsector.lower()
66
+ ni = naics_industry.lower()
67
+
68
+ # Tier 3: Sub Component Suppliers / Chemical or Catalyst Manufacturers / Primary Extraction
69
+ if code_str.startswith('331') or code_str.startswith('3251') or 'primary metal' in ns or 'semiconductor' in ni or 'basic chemical' in ni or 'catalyst' in ni:
70
+ return 3
71
+ # Tier 2: Intermediate Processors (Refiners, Fabricated Metals, Plastics)
72
+ elif code_str.startswith('332') or code_str.startswith('326') or code_str.startswith('324') or 'fabricated metal' in ns or 'plastic' in ns or 'refining' in ni or 'processor' in ni or 'machine shop' in ni:
73
+ return 2
74
+ # Tier 1: Direct Suppliers / Final Assembly OEMs (Food, Auto, Aerospace)
75
+ elif code_str.startswith('336') or code_str.startswith('311') or 'food' in ns or 'auto' in ni or 'transportation' in ns or 'furniture' in ns or 'apparel' in ns:
76
+ return 1
77
+ else:
78
+ return 2 # Default to intermediate
79
+
80
+ def build_contagion_edges(df):
81
+ """
82
+ Generates a directed Edge List (Source -> Target) to map the contagion cascade.
83
+ """
84
+ edges = []
85
+
86
+ # 1. Tier 4 (Materials) -> Applicable NAICS Industries
87
+ for _, row in df.iterrows():
88
+ mat = row['material_name']
89
+ target_node = row['Primary Name']
90
+ target_tier = row['Supply Chain Tier']
91
+ if pd.notna(mat) and mat != "":
92
+ edges.append({
93
+ "Source Node": mat,
94
+ "Source Tier": "Tier 4",
95
+ "Target Node": target_node,
96
+ "Target Tier": f"Tier {target_tier}",
97
+ "Edge Type": "Raw Material Flow"
98
+ })
99
+
100
+ # Helper to get all unique names for a given tier
101
+ def get_tier_nodes(tier_num):
102
+ return df[df['Supply Chain Tier'] == tier_num]['Primary Name'].unique()
103
+
104
+ t3_nodes = get_tier_nodes(3)
105
+ t2_nodes = get_tier_nodes(2)
106
+ t1_nodes = get_tier_nodes(1)
107
+
108
+ # 2. Tier 3 -> Tier 2 -> Tier 1 Cascades
109
+ for t3 in t3_nodes:
110
+ t3_lower = t3.lower()
111
+ for t2 in t2_nodes:
112
+ t2_lower = t2.lower()
113
+ # Chemical (Tier 3) -> Plastics/Rubber/Refining (Tier 2)
114
+ if 'chemical' in t3_lower and ('plastic' in t2_lower or 'rubber' in t2_lower or 'refin' in t2_lower):
115
+ edges.append({"Source Node": t3, "Source Tier": "Tier 3", "Target Node": t2, "Target Tier": "Tier 2", "Edge Type": "Chemical Feedstock"})
116
+ # Primary Metal (Tier 3) -> Fabricated Metal/Machinery (Tier 2)
117
+ elif ('metal' in t3_lower or 'steel' in t3_lower or 'aluminum' in t3_lower) and ('fabricated' in t2_lower or 'machinery' in t2_lower or 'wire' in t2_lower):
118
+ edges.append({"Source Node": t3, "Source Tier": "Tier 3", "Target Node": t2, "Target Tier": "Tier 2", "Edge Type": "Metal Processing"})
119
+ # Semiconductors (Tier 3) -> Electronics/Computers (Tier 2)
120
+ elif 'semiconductor' in t3_lower and ('electronic' in t2_lower or 'computer' in t2_lower):
121
+ edges.append({"Source Node": t3, "Source Tier": "Tier 3", "Target Node": t2, "Target Tier": "Tier 2", "Edge Type": "Component Supply"})
122
+
123
+ for t2 in t2_nodes:
124
+ t2_lower = t2.lower()
125
+ for t1 in t1_nodes:
126
+ t1_lower = t1.lower()
127
+ # Plastics/Rubber (Tier 2) -> Auto/Aerospace/Food (Tier 1)
128
+ if ('plastic' in t2_lower or 'rubber' in t2_lower) and ('auto' in t1_lower or 'aerospace' in t1_lower or 'food' in t1_lower):
129
+ edges.append({"Source Node": t2, "Source Tier": "Tier 2", "Target Node": t1, "Target Tier": "Tier 1", "Edge Type": "Packaging / Component Supply"})
130
+ # Fabricated Metal/Machinery (Tier 2) -> Auto/Aerospace (Tier 1)
131
+ elif ('metal' in t2_lower or 'machin' in t2_lower) and ('auto' in t1_lower or 'aerospace' in t1_lower or 'transport' in t1_lower):
132
+ edges.append({"Source Node": t2, "Source Tier": "Tier 2", "Target Node": t1, "Target Tier": "Tier 1", "Edge Type": "Industrial Parts"})
133
+ # Fats/Oils/Refining (Tier 2) -> Food Processing (Tier 1)
134
+ elif ('refin' in t2_lower or 'fat' in t2_lower or 'oil' in t2_lower) and ('food' in t1_lower or 'snack' in t1_lower or 'bakery' in t1_lower):
135
+ edges.append({"Source Node": t2, "Source Tier": "Tier 2", "Target Node": t1, "Target Tier": "Tier 1", "Edge Type": "Ingredient Flow"})
136
+ # Electronics/Computers (Tier 2) -> Auto/Aerospace (Tier 1)
137
+ elif ('electronic' in t2_lower or 'computer' in t2_lower) and ('auto' in t1_lower or 'aerospace' in t1_lower):
138
+ edges.append({"Source Node": t2, "Source Tier": "Tier 2", "Target Node": t1, "Target Tier": "Tier 1", "Edge Type": "Avionics / Nav Supply"})
139
+
140
+ # Deduplicate edges
141
+ unique_edges = []
142
+ seen = set()
143
+ for e in edges:
144
+ sig = f"{e['Source Node']}->{e['Target Node']}"
145
+ if sig not in seen:
146
+ seen.add(sig)
147
+ unique_edges.append(e)
148
+
149
+ return pd.DataFrame(unique_edges)
150
+
151
+ def run_mapping():
152
+ print("Starting NAICS Contagion Mapping Pipeline...")
153
+
154
+ data_dir = r"C:\Users\LydiaHunterLabsTech\.gemini\antigravity\scratch\NAICs Contagion Drop"
155
+ pe_path = os.path.join(data_dir, "NAICS Physical Economy 2.xlsx")
156
+ gics_path = os.path.join(data_dir, "GICS All.xlsx")
157
+
158
+ # 1. Load Data
159
+ df_pe = pd.read_excel(pe_path)
160
+ df_gics = pd.read_excel(gics_path)
161
+
162
+ gics_industries = df_gics['Industry (Siblings)'].dropna().unique().tolist()
163
+ gics_sub_industries = df_gics['Sub-Industry (Cousins)'].dropna().unique().tolist()
164
+
165
+ test_materials = get_test_materials()
166
+
167
+ rows = []
168
+
169
+ print("Processing NAICS Physical Economy through Commodity Mapper...")
170
+
171
+ # 2. Map Commodity Mapper through NAICS Physical Economy 2
172
+ # Ensure 334410 gets processed even if missing in PE2 sample
173
+ pe_codes = df_pe['Industry Code'].fillna(0).astype(int).astype(str).tolist()
174
+ if '334410' not in pe_codes:
175
+ new_row = {'Sector': 'Manufacturing', 'Sub Sector': 'Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing', 'Industry': 'Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing', 'Industry Code': 334410}
176
+ df_pe = pd.concat([df_pe, pd.DataFrame([new_row])], ignore_index=True)
177
+
178
+ for _, pe_row in df_pe.iterrows():
179
+ naics_code = str(pe_row['Industry Code']).strip('.0')
180
+ if naics_code == '0' or naics_code == 'nan': continue
181
+
182
+ naics_industry = str(pe_row.get('Industry', 'Unknown'))
183
+ naics_sector = str(pe_row.get('Sector', 'Unknown'))
184
+ # Using correct column name 'Sub Sector'
185
+ naics_subsector = str(pe_row.get('Sub Sector', pe_row.get('Subsector', 'Unknown')))
186
+
187
+ # Determine GICS mapping based on heuristic rules
188
+ ns = naics_subsector.lower()
189
+ ni = naics_industry.lower()
190
+
191
+ if 'food' in ns or 'beverage' in ns or 'tobacco' in ns:
192
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Consumer Staples", "Food, Beverage & Tobacco", "Packaged Foods & Meats"
193
+ elif 'chemical' in ns:
194
+ if 'pharmaceutical' in ni or 'medicine' in ni:
195
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Health Care", "Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology", "Pharmaceuticals"
196
+ else:
197
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Materials", "Materials", "Commodity Chemicals"
198
+ elif 'metal' in ns:
199
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Materials", "Materials", "Steel"
200
+ elif 'wood' in ns or 'paper' in ns:
201
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Materials", "Materials", "Paper & Forest Products"
202
+ elif 'petroleum' in ns or 'coal' in ns:
203
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Energy", "Energy", "Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing"
204
+ elif 'machinery' in ns:
205
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Industrials", "Capital Goods", "Industrial Machinery"
206
+ elif 'transportation' in ns:
207
+ if 'auto' in ni or 'motor' in ni or 'car' in ni:
208
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Consumer Discretionary", "Automobiles & Components", "Auto Parts & Equipment"
209
+ elif 'aerospace' in ni:
210
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Industrials", "Capital Goods", "Aerospace & Defense"
211
+ else:
212
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Industrials", "Capital Goods", "Heavy Transportation Equipment"
213
+ elif 'computer' in ns or 'electronic' in ns:
214
+ if 'semiconductor' in ni:
215
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Information Technology", "Semiconductors", "Semiconductors"
216
+ else:
217
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Information Technology", "Technology Hardware & Equipment", "Electronic Equipment & Instruments"
218
+ elif 'electrical' in ns:
219
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Industrials", "Capital Goods", "Electrical Components & Equipment"
220
+ elif 'textile' in ns or 'apparel' in ns or 'leather' in ns:
221
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Consumer Discretionary", "Consumer Durables & Apparel", "Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods"
222
+ elif 'furniture' in ns:
223
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Consumer Discretionary", "Consumer Durables & Apparel", "Home Furnishings"
224
+ elif 'nonmetallic' in ns or 'mineral' in ns or 'glass' in ni or 'cement' in ni:
225
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Materials", "Materials", "Construction Materials"
226
+ else:
227
+ gics_sector, gics_industry_group, gics_sub_match = "Industrials", "Capital Goods", "Diversified Industrials"
228
+
229
+ contagion_score = get_contagion_score(naics_code)
230
+ supply_chain_tier = assign_supply_chain_tier(naics_code, naics_subsector, naics_industry)
231
+
232
+ # Extract available materials for dynamic assignment
233
+ test_mats = get_test_materials()
234
+ ALL_MATS = {}
235
+ for mat_list in test_mats.values():
236
+ for m in mat_list:
237
+ ALL_MATS[m[1].lower()] = m
238
+
239
+ def assign_materials_heuristic(n_ind, n_sub):
240
+ ni = n_ind.lower()
241
+ ns = n_sub.lower()
242
+ assigned = []
243
+
244
+ # Metal
245
+ if 'steel' in ni or 'iron' in ni: assigned.append(ALL_MATS['steel'])
246
+ if 'aluminum' in ni or 'alumina' in ni: assigned.append(ALL_MATS['aluminum'])
247
+ if 'copper' in ni or 'wire' in ni: assigned.append(ALL_MATS['copper'])
248
+
249
+ # Auto / Transport
250
+ if 'auto' in ni or 'motor vehicle' in ni or 'aerospace' in ni:
251
+ assigned.extend([ALL_MATS['steel'], ALL_MATS['aluminum'], ALL_MATS['natural rubber'], ALL_MATS['copper']])
252
+
253
+ # Plastics / Rubber
254
+ if 'plastic' in ni: assigned.append(ALL_MATS['polypropylene'])
255
+ if 'rubber' in ni or 'tire' in ni: assigned.append(ALL_MATS['natural rubber'])
256
+
257
+ # Electronics / Semiconductors / Batteries
258
+ if 'battery' in ni:
259
+ assigned.extend([ALL_MATS['lithium carbonate'], ALL_MATS['cobalt'], ALL_MATS['nickel']])
260
+ if 'semiconductor' in ni or 'electronic' in ni:
261
+ assigned.extend([ALL_MATS['polysilicon'], ALL_MATS['gallium'], ALL_MATS['germanium'], ALL_MATS['tantalum']])
262
+ if 'computer' in ns:
263
+ assigned.extend([ALL_MATS['polysilicon'], ALL_MATS['copper']])
264
+
265
+ # Petro / Chemicals
266
+ if 'petroleum' in ni or 'oil' in ni or 'refin' in ni:
267
+ if 'oilseed' not in ni and 'soybean' not in ni and 'animal' not in ni: # exclude cooking oil
268
+ assigned.extend([ALL_MATS['crude oil'], ALL_MATS['natural gas'], ALL_MATS['platinum']])
269
+ if 'chemical' in ns:
270
+ assigned.extend([ALL_MATS['crude oil'], ALL_MATS['natural gas']])
271
+
272
+ # Machinery
273
+ if 'machinery' in ns:
274
+ assigned.extend([ALL_MATS['steel'], ALL_MATS['aluminum'], ALL_MATS['copper']])
275
+
276
+ # Deduplicate
277
+ unique_mats = []
278
+ seen = set()
279
+ for m in assigned:
280
+ if m[0] not in seen:
281
+ seen.add(m[0])
282
+ unique_mats.append(m)
283
+ return unique_mats
284
+
285
+ # Check if we have explicitly defined materials for this NAICS
286
+ materials = test_materials.get(naics_code, [])
287
+ if not materials:
288
+ # If not, use the heuristic engine to assign applicable materials
289
+ materials = assign_materials_heuristic(naics_industry, naics_subsector)
290
+
291
+ if not materials:
292
+ # Create a single row without material specifics
293
+ row = {
294
+ "Internal ID": f"PC_{naics_code}",
295
+ "NAICS Code ID": naics_code,
296
+ "Primary Name": naics_industry,
297
+ "NAICS Sector": naics_sector,
298
+ "NAICS Sub Sector": naics_subsector,
299
+ "GICS Sector": gics_sector,
300
+ "GICS Industry Group": gics_industry_group,
301
+ "GICS Sub Industry": gics_sub_match,
302
+ "Supply Chain Tier": supply_chain_tier,
303
+ "Contagion Score": contagion_score,
304
+
305
+ "material_id": "", "material_name": "", "hs_code": "", "market_ticker": "",
306
+ "origin_country_1": "", "o1_market_share": "", "origin_country_2": "", "o2_market_share": "", "origin_country_3": "", "o3_market_share": "",
307
+ "refining_country_1": "", "r1_market_share": "", "refining_country_2": "", "r2_market_share": "", "refining_country_3": "", "r3_market_share": "",
308
+
309
+ # --- BETA MASKING (Logistics & Substitution Logic) ---
310
+ "primary_transit_vehicle": "[Unlock in Beta]",
311
+ "cost_weight_metric": "[Unlock in Beta]",
312
+ "substitute_material_id": "[Unlock in Beta]",
313
+ "substitutability_index": "[Unlock in Beta]",
314
+ "search_tags": "[Unlock in Beta]"
315
+ }
316
+ rows.append(row)
317
+ else:
318
+ # Expand material rows
319
+ for mat in materials:
320
+ mat_id, mat_name, hs, ticker, o1, o1_s, o2, o2_s, o3, o3_s, r1, r1_s, r2, r2_s, r3, r3_s, transit, weight, sub_id, sub_idx, tags = mat
321
+ row = {
322
+ "Internal ID": f"PC_{naics_code}",
323
+ "NAICS Code ID": naics_code,
324
+ "Primary Name": naics_industry,
325
+ "NAICS Sector": naics_sector,
326
+ "NAICS Sub Sector": naics_subsector,
327
+ "GICS Sector": gics_sector,
328
+ "GICS Industry Group": gics_industry_group,
329
+ "GICS Sub Industry": gics_sub_match,
330
+ "Supply Chain Tier": supply_chain_tier,
331
+ "Contagion Score": contagion_score,
332
+
333
+ "material_id": mat_id, "material_name": mat_name, "hs_code": hs, "market_ticker": ticker,
334
+ "origin_country_1": o1, "o1_market_share": o1_s, "origin_country_2": o2, "o2_market_share": o2_s, "origin_country_3": o3, "o3_market_share": o3_s,
335
+ "refining_country_1": r1, "r1_market_share": r1_s, "refining_country_2": r2, "r2_market_share": r2_s, "refining_country_3": r3, "r3_market_share": r3_s,
336
+
337
+ # --- BETA MASKING (Logistics & Substitution Logic) ---
338
+ "primary_transit_vehicle": "[Unlock in Beta]",
339
+ "cost_weight_metric": "[Unlock in Beta]",
340
+ "substitute_material_id": "[Unlock in Beta]",
341
+ "substitutability_index": "[Unlock in Beta]",
342
+ "search_tags": "[Unlock in Beta]"
343
+ }
344
+ rows.append(row)
345
+
346
+ final_df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
347
+
348
+ # Generate the Edge List for the Cascade
349
+ edges_df = build_contagion_edges(final_df)
350
+
351
+ out_csv = os.path.join(data_dir, "NAICS_Contagion_Nodes_GitHub.csv")
352
+ out_xlsx = os.path.join(data_dir, "NAICS_Contagion_Nodes_GitHub.xlsx")
353
+ edges_csv = os.path.join(data_dir, "NAICS_Contagion_Edges_GitHub.csv")
354
+
355
+ print(f"Saving mapped results to {out_csv} and {out_xlsx}...")
356
+ final_df.to_csv(out_csv, index=False)
357
+ final_df.to_excel(out_xlsx, index=False)
358
+
359
+ print(f"Saving Cascade Edge List to {edges_csv}...")
360
+ edges_df.to_csv(edges_csv, index=False)
361
+
362
+ print("Contagion Map & Cascades Complete!")
363
+
364
+ if __name__ == "__main__":
365
+ run_mapping()
NAICS_Contagion_Nodes_GitHub.csv ADDED
The diff for this file is too large to render. See raw diff
 
NAICS_Contagion_Visualizer.html ADDED
The diff for this file is too large to render. See raw diff
 
README.md CHANGED
@@ -1,3 +1,47 @@
1
- ---
2
- license: mit
3
- ---
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ # 🌐 NAICS Contagion Map: The Physical Economy Visualized
2
+
3
+ ## [🚀 Join the June 2026 Beta](https://a7af2a54.sibforms.com/serve/MUIFAK4KiE6r-UBeNPKiGd_hFht_dPE_p8oCs2NOx53N8abu_SQe9HTVgRxIlg4HlA9cOsVmYs2pkeAZHGZ0XlDh2RBLa_bZZLLiaXPKpUTjgr72heyx-lYwgPb0B8dnkWsj7lw-M1jEOnzP7Oc8o12c0SG3UYsmQZRaWacaAWgweWru9S9fWYne4o43aByc7BqGSjRvnZcHXYcQ)
4
+
5
+ Welcome to the **NAICS Contagion Intelligence Map** — an open-source pipeline mapping the vulnerability cascades of the physical economy.
6
+
7
+ This repository bridges institutional supply chain taxonomies (NAICS) with financial market frameworks (GICS) to visualize how disruptions in upstream raw materials systematically ripple down to consumer goods.
8
+
9
+ ![Contagion Visualizer Dashboard](visualizer_screenshot.png)
10
+
11
+ ## 📦 What's Included in the Drop?
12
+
13
+ 1. **`NAICS_Contagion_Map.py`**
14
+ The core intelligence engine. It utilizes a deterministic heuristic algorithm to classify manufacturing nodes into Supply Chain Tiers (Tier 1 to Tier 4) and generate topological edge networks.
15
+
16
+ 2. **`NAICS_Contagion_Nodes_GitHub.xlsx` / `.csv`**
17
+ The flat intelligence map. Contains 346 mapped NAICS industries, their corresponding GICS cousins, their structural Tier, and their **Contagion Score (1.0 - 10.0)**.
18
+ *Note: Sensitive logistics data and substitutability friction metrics are masked as `[Unlock in Beta]` to protect trade-secret competitive intelligence.*
19
+
20
+ 3. **`NAICS_Contagion_Edges_GitHub.csv`**
21
+ The relational spiderweb. A generated list of 1,100+ topological edges showing the exact contagion cascade from Tier 4 (Commodity) -> Tier 3 (Primary Extractor) -> Tier 2 (Processor) -> Tier 1 (Final Assembler).
22
+
23
+ 4. **`build_visualizer.py` & `NAICS_Contagion_Visualizer.html`**
24
+ A stunning, interactive Web application generated from the data. You can open the `.html` file directly in any browser (no server required) to explore the system cascades interactively via an embedded physics-driven network engine.
25
+
26
+ ## 🧠 The Intelligence Framework
27
+
28
+ ### The Supply Chain Tiers
29
+ We categorize the physical economy into four distinct levels of depth:
30
+ * **Tier 4 (Raw Materials):** Foundational commodities (e.g., Lithium, Crude Oil, Platinum).
31
+ * **Tier 3 (Primary Converters):** Heavy extractors and baseline chemical/metal converters (e.g., Basic Chemical Mfg, Primary Metal Mfg).
32
+ * **Tier 2 (Intermediate Processors):** Mid-stream molders and fabricators (e.g., Fabricated Metals, Plastics, Refiners).
33
+ * **Tier 1 (Direct Suppliers / OEMs):** Final assembly and direct-to-consumer manufacturing (e.g., Auto Manufacturing, Food Processing, Aerospace).
34
+
35
+ ### The Contagion Score (1.0 - 10.0)
36
+ The Contagion Score quantifies systemic volatility.
37
+ - **High Scores (8.0+):** Indicate a systemic "anchor node". A bottleneck here causes catastrophic downstream starvation. Driven by high Upstream Concentration Risk and massive Downstream Connectivity.
38
+ - **Medium Scores (5.0-7.9):** Intermediate processors with some alternative pathways.
39
+ - **Low Scores (1.0-4.9):** Terminal nodes that can absorb localized shocks.
40
+
41
+ ## 🚀 How to Use the Data
42
+ Import the `Edges` and `Nodes` CSVs directly into network visualization tools like Gephi, Neo4j, or Python's NetworkX to build an interactive, force-directed graph of macroeconomic risk.
43
+
44
+ ---
45
+
46
+ **Contact for Enterprise Inquiry:**
47
+ Email Mark: `mark(at)plainr(dot)io`
build_visualizer.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,307 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ import pandas as pd
2
+ import json
3
+ import os
4
+
5
+ def generate_html():
6
+ print("Loading Contagion Data...")
7
+
8
+ # Load data from the current directory
9
+ df_nodes = pd.read_csv("NAICS_Contagion_Nodes_GitHub.csv")
10
+ df_edges = pd.read_csv("NAICS_Contagion_Edges_GitHub.csv")
11
+
12
+ # Build Vis.js Nodes
13
+ nodes = []
14
+ seen_nodes = set()
15
+
16
+ # Map colors to Tiers
17
+ color_map = {
18
+ 'Tier 4': '#ff9f43', # Orange for Raw Materials
19
+ 'Tier 3': '#ee5253', # Red for Primary
20
+ 'Tier 2': '#9b59b6', # Purple for Intermediate
21
+ 'Tier 1': '#3498db' # Blue for Final
22
+ }
23
+
24
+ # Process edges to get all nodes
25
+ for _, e in df_edges.iterrows():
26
+ src = e['Source Node']
27
+ src_tier = e['Source Tier']
28
+ tgt = e['Target Node']
29
+ tgt_tier = e['Target Tier']
30
+
31
+ if src not in seen_nodes:
32
+ seen_nodes.add(src)
33
+ nodes.append({
34
+ "id": src,
35
+ "label": src,
36
+ "group": src_tier,
37
+ "color": color_map.get(src_tier, '#bdc3c7'),
38
+ "value": 20 if src_tier == 'Tier 4' else 10,
39
+ "title": f"<b>{src}</b><br>{src_tier}"
40
+ })
41
+
42
+ if tgt not in seen_nodes:
43
+ seen_nodes.add(tgt)
44
+ # Find contagion score for target
45
+ node_data = df_nodes[df_nodes['Primary Name'] == tgt]
46
+ score = 5.0
47
+ if not node_data.empty:
48
+ score = float(node_data.iloc[0]['Contagion Score'])
49
+
50
+ nodes.append({
51
+ "id": tgt,
52
+ "label": tgt,
53
+ "group": tgt_tier,
54
+ "color": color_map.get(tgt_tier, '#bdc3c7'),
55
+ "value": score * 3, # Scale for visualization
56
+ "title": f"<b>{tgt}</b><br>{tgt_tier}<br>Contagion Score: {score}"
57
+ })
58
+
59
+ # Build Vis.js Edges
60
+ edges = []
61
+ for _, e in df_edges.iterrows():
62
+ edges.append({
63
+ "from": e['Source Node'],
64
+ "to": e['Target Node'],
65
+ "title": e['Edge Type'],
66
+ "arrows": "to",
67
+ "color": {"color": "rgba(255,255,255,0.2)", "highlight": "rgba(255,255,255,0.8)"}
68
+ })
69
+
70
+ nodes_json = json.dumps(nodes)
71
+ edges_json = json.dumps(edges)
72
+
73
+ # --- STUNNING HTML TEMPLATE (Dark Mode, Glassmorphism) ---
74
+ html_content = f"""
75
+ <!DOCTYPE html>
76
+ <html lang="en">
77
+ <head>
78
+ <meta charset="UTF-8">
79
+ <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
80
+ <title>NAICS Contagion Intelligence Map</title>
81
+ <script type="text/javascript" src="https://unpkg.com/vis-network/standalone/umd/vis-network.min.js"></script>
82
+ <link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;600;800&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
83
+ <style>
84
+ body {{
85
+ margin: 0;
86
+ padding: 0;
87
+ background: linear-gradient(135deg, #0f172a 0%, #1e1b4b 100%);
88
+ color: #f8fafc;
89
+ font-family: 'Inter', sans-serif;
90
+ overflow: hidden;
91
+ display: flex;
92
+ height: 100vh;
93
+ }}
94
+
95
+ #mynetwork {{
96
+ flex-grow: 1;
97
+ height: 100%;
98
+ outline: none;
99
+ }}
100
+
101
+ /* Glassmorphism Sidebar */
102
+ .sidebar {{
103
+ width: 380px;
104
+ height: 100%;
105
+ background: rgba(15, 23, 42, 0.6);
106
+ backdrop-filter: blur(16px);
107
+ -webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(16px);
108
+ border-left: 1px solid rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.1);
109
+ padding: 40px 30px;
110
+ box-sizing: border-box;
111
+ display: flex;
112
+ flex-direction: column;
113
+ z-index: 10;
114
+ box-shadow: -10px 0 30px rgba(0,0,0,0.5);
115
+ }}
116
+
117
+ .header h1 {{
118
+ font-size: 24px;
119
+ font-weight: 800;
120
+ margin: 0 0 10px 0;
121
+ background: -webkit-linear-gradient(45deg, #38bdf8, #818cf8);
122
+ -webkit-background-clip: text;
123
+ -webkit-text-fill-color: transparent;
124
+ letter-spacing: -0.5px;
125
+ }}
126
+
127
+ .header p {{
128
+ font-size: 13px;
129
+ color: #94a3b8;
130
+ line-height: 1.6;
131
+ margin-bottom: 30px;
132
+ }}
133
+
134
+ .legend {{
135
+ background: rgba(255,255,255,0.03);
136
+ border-radius: 12px;
137
+ padding: 20px;
138
+ border: 1px solid rgba(255,255,255,0.05);
139
+ margin-bottom: 30px;
140
+ }}
141
+
142
+ .legend-title {{
143
+ font-size: 11px;
144
+ text-transform: uppercase;
145
+ letter-spacing: 1px;
146
+ color: #64748b;
147
+ margin-bottom: 15px;
148
+ font-weight: 600;
149
+ }}
150
+
151
+ .legend-item {{
152
+ display: flex;
153
+ align-items: center;
154
+ margin-bottom: 12px;
155
+ font-size: 14px;
156
+ }}
157
+
158
+ .color-dot {{
159
+ width: 12px;
160
+ height: 12px;
161
+ border-radius: 50%;
162
+ margin-right: 12px;
163
+ box-shadow: 0 0 10px currentColor;
164
+ }}
165
+
166
+ .node-info {{
167
+ margin-top: auto;
168
+ background: rgba(0,0,0,0.3);
169
+ border-radius: 12px;
170
+ padding: 20px;
171
+ border: 1px solid rgba(255,255,255,0.05);
172
+ display: none;
173
+ }}
174
+
175
+ .node-info h3 {{ margin: 0 0 10px 0; font-size: 16px; color: #fff; }}
176
+ .node-info p {{ margin: 5px 0; font-size: 13px; color: #cbd5e1; }}
177
+ .badge {{
178
+ display: inline-block;
179
+ padding: 4px 8px;
180
+ border-radius: 4px;
181
+ font-size: 11px;
182
+ font-weight: 600;
183
+ background: rgba(255,255,255,0.1);
184
+ margin-top: 10px;
185
+ }}
186
+
187
+ /* Floating branding */
188
+ .brand {{
189
+ position: absolute;
190
+ bottom: 30px;
191
+ left: 30px;
192
+ font-size: 12px;
193
+ color: rgba(255,255,255,0.3);
194
+ pointer-events: none;
195
+ letter-spacing: 2px;
196
+ font-weight: 600;
197
+ }}
198
+ </style>
199
+ </head>
200
+ <body>
201
+
202
+ <div id="mynetwork"></div>
203
+ <div class="brand">NAICS CONTAGION INTELLIGENCE</div>
204
+
205
+ <div class="sidebar">
206
+ <div class="header">
207
+ <h1>Contagion Cascade</h1>
208
+ <p>Interactive mapping of systemic vulnerability across the NAICS physical economy. Nodes are sized by Contagion Score.</p>
209
+ </div>
210
+
211
+ <div class="legend">
212
+ <div class="legend-title">Supply Chain Hierarchy</div>
213
+ <div class="legend-item"><div class="color-dot" style="color: #ff9f43; background: #ff9f43;"></div> Tier 4: Raw Commodity</div>
214
+ <div class="legend-item"><div class="color-dot" style="color: #ee5253; background: #ee5253;"></div> Tier 3: Primary Extractor</div>
215
+ <div class="legend-item"><div class="color-dot" style="color: #9b59b6; background: #9b59b6;"></div> Tier 2: Intermediate Processor</div>
216
+ <div class="legend-item"><div class="color-dot" style="color: #3498db; background: #3498db;"></div> Tier 1: Final Assembly</div>
217
+ </div>
218
+
219
+ <div class="node-info" id="nodeInfo">
220
+ <h3 id="ni-title">Node Name</h3>
221
+ <p id="ni-tier">Tier: --</p>
222
+ <p id="ni-score">Contagion Score: --</p>
223
+ <div class="badge" id="ni-badge">Systemic Node</div>
224
+ </div>
225
+ </div>
226
+
227
+ <script type="text/javascript">
228
+ // Inject Data
229
+ var nodes = new vis.DataSet({nodes_json});
230
+ var edges = new vis.DataSet({edges_json});
231
+
232
+ var container = document.getElementById('mynetwork');
233
+ var data = {{
234
+ nodes: nodes,
235
+ edges: edges
236
+ }};
237
+
238
+ var options = {{
239
+ nodes: {{
240
+ shape: 'dot',
241
+ font: {{ color: '#ffffff', size: 12, face: 'Inter', strokeWidth: 2, strokeColor: '#0f172a' }},
242
+ borderWidth: 2,
243
+ shadow: true
244
+ }},
245
+ edges: {{
246
+ smooth: {{ type: 'continuous' }}
247
+ }},
248
+ physics: {{
249
+ forceAtlas2Based: {{
250
+ gravitationalConstant: -80,
251
+ centralGravity: 0.005,
252
+ springLength: 200,
253
+ springConstant: 0.04,
254
+ damping: 0.65
255
+ }},
256
+ maxVelocity: 8,
257
+ solver: 'forceAtlas2Based',
258
+ timestep: 0.15,
259
+ stabilization: {{ iterations: 150 }}
260
+ }},
261
+ interaction: {{
262
+ hover: true,
263
+ tooltipDelay: 200
264
+ }}
265
+ }};
266
+
267
+ var network = new vis.Network(container, data, options);
268
+
269
+ // Interaction Events for the sidebar
270
+ network.on("selectNode", function (params) {{
271
+ if (params.nodes.length == 1) {{
272
+ var nodeId = params.nodes[0];
273
+ var node = nodes.get(nodeId);
274
+
275
+ document.getElementById('nodeInfo').style.display = 'block';
276
+ document.getElementById('ni-title').innerText = node.label;
277
+ document.getElementById('ni-tier').innerText = node.group;
278
+
279
+ // Extract score from title or set to NA
280
+ var score = "N/A";
281
+ if(node.title.includes("Contagion Score")) {{
282
+ score = node.title.split("Contagion Score: ")[1];
283
+ document.getElementById('ni-badge').style.display = parseFloat(score) > 8.0 ? 'inline-block' : 'none';
284
+ if(parseFloat(score) > 8.0) document.getElementById('ni-badge').innerText = 'Critical Anchor Node';
285
+ }} else {{
286
+ document.getElementById('ni-badge').style.display = 'none';
287
+ }}
288
+ document.getElementById('ni-score').innerText = "Contagion Score: " + score;
289
+ }}
290
+ }});
291
+
292
+ network.on("deselectNode", function (params) {{
293
+ document.getElementById('nodeInfo').style.display = 'none';
294
+ }});
295
+ </script>
296
+ </body>
297
+ </html>
298
+ """
299
+
300
+ out_path = "NAICS_Contagion_Visualizer.html"
301
+ with open(out_path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
302
+ f.write(html_content)
303
+
304
+ print(f"Visualization generated successfully at: {out_path}")
305
+
306
+ if __name__ == "__main__":
307
+ generate_html()