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- ---
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- license: mit
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- ---
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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+ ---
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+ license: mit
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+ task_categories:
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+ - question-answering
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+ - text-generation
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+ language:
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+ - en
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+ tags:
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+ - forecasting
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+ - benchmark
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+ - llm-evaluation
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+ - reasoning
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+ - temporal-reasoning
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+ - contamination-control
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+ - leakage-control
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+ - prediction
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+ - agent
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+ size_categories:
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+ - n<1K
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+ pretty_name: OracleProto Forecasting Eval Set (Example, v1.0)
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+ ---
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+
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+ # OracleProto — Forecasting Evaluation Set (Example, v1.0)
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+
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+ **Dataset:** [`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto) ·
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+ **Framework:** [`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) ·
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+ **License:** MIT
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+
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+ A small, hand-curated benchmark of **80 real-world forecasting questions** whose ground truths
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+ resolve between **2026-03-12 and 2026-04-14**. The set is the public example release shipped
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+ with the [OracleProto framework](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) — a reproducible
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+ harness for benchmarking LLM-native forecasting via knowledge-cutoff and temporal-masking
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+ discipline.
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+
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+ The dataset is shipped as **a single SQLite database file** named
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+ `forecast_eval_set_example.db`, which contains **two tables**:
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+
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+ * `forecast_eval_set_example` — the 80 forecasting rows (one row per question).
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+ * `dataset_metadata` — a one-row table holding the canonical prompt-reconstruction recipe
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+ (prompt template, output formats, agent role, answer-encoding rules, provenance).
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+
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+ The dataset is designed to be the **dataset $`\mathcal{D}`$** in the OracleProto run unit
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+ $`\mathcal{R} = (\mathcal{D}, M, \kappa_M, \delta, T, C, R, \Psi, \phi, \Gamma)`$: every column,
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+ prompt template, and answer-encoding rule below is byte-stable and round-trip parsed by the
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+ reference parser, so a forecasting run on this set is auditable, replayable, and comparable
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+ across models and across calendar years.
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+
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+ > **TL;DR.** 80 yes/no, two-named-entity, and multiple-choice (single-answer / multi-select)
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+ > questions on real-world events. All ground truths are verified end-to-end via parser
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+ > round-trip; 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium ambiguity issues remain. Distributed as a single
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+ > SQLite database file `forecast_eval_set_example.db` containing tables
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+ > `forecast_eval_set_example` (rows) and `dataset_metadata` (recipe), so the
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+ > prompt-reconstruction recipe and per-question metadata stay co-located with the rows.
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+
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+ ---
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+
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+ ## 1. Dataset at a glance
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+
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+ | Field | Value |
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+ | ---------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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+ | Schema version | `v1.0` |
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+ | Release date | `2026-04-29` |
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+ | Rows | 80 |
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+ | Splits | `train` (80) — single split, intended as a held-out evaluation set |
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+ | Resolution-date range | `2026-03-12` → `2026-04-14` |
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+ | Question types | `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice` |
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+ | Choice types | `single` (one correct letter), `multi` (one-or-more correct letters) |
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+ | Database file | `forecast_eval_set_example.db` (SQLite 3, ~52 KB) |
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+ | Tables in the file | `forecast_eval_set_example` (80 rows), `dataset_metadata` (1 row) |
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+ | License | MIT |
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+ | Source upstream | HuggingFace forecasting questions (levels 1+2 only), heavily curated |
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+
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+ ### Type distribution
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+
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+ | `question_type` | `choice_type` | Rows |
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+ | ------------------- | ------------- | ---- |
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+ | `yes_no` | `single` | 37 |
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+ | `binary_named` | `single` | 3 |
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+ | `multiple_choice` | `single` | 32 |
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+ | `multiple_choice` | `multi` | 8 |
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+ | **Total** | | **80** |
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+
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+ `yes_no` is binary Yes/No, `binary_named` is binary between two named entities (e.g. sports
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+ teams, fighters, sides), and `multiple_choice` carries ≥3 labelled options where multiple
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+ correct answers are allowed; *"None of the above"* is a valid answer. Every question lists the
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+ exact option labels, so labels are the source of truth — letter labels (`A`, `B`, …) are
87
+ implied by index.
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+
89
+ ---
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+
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+ ## 2. Files
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+
93
+ ```text
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+ OracleProto/
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+ ├── forecast_eval_set_example.db # SQLite database file (the dataset; ~52 KB)
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+ ├── README.md # this file
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+ ├── LICENSE # MIT
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+ └── .gitattributes # standard HF binary attributes
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+ ```
100
+
101
+ The dataset ships as **one SQLite database file** rather than as Parquet/JSONL, because the
102
+ prompt-reconstruction recipe, the column-level schema, and per-row provenance live in the
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+ same file (in the `dataset_metadata` table). This keeps the canonical source of truth —
104
+ including the byte-stable `prompt_template` used by the evaluator — co-located with the
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+ rows. The file `forecast_eval_set_example.db` contains exactly two tables:
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+
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+ * **`forecast_eval_set_example`** — the 80 forecasting rows. Schema and column semantics in §3.1 / §3.3.
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+ * **`dataset_metadata`** — a single-row table whose `features_json` blob holds the prompt
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+ template, the four output formats, the outcomes-block rule, the agent-role string, and
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+ the curation provenance. Schema in §3.2; full recipe rendered in §5.
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+
112
+ A loader example for converting to `datasets.Dataset` / Parquet is provided in §6.
113
+
114
+ ---
115
+
116
+ ## 3. Database schema
117
+
118
+ The database **file** is `forecast_eval_set_example.db`. It contains exactly **two tables**:
119
+ `forecast_eval_set_example` (80 forecasting rows) and `dataset_metadata` (1 metadata row).
120
+ Note that the database file and the rows table happen to share the same name — the file is
121
+ named after its primary table.
122
+
123
+ ### 3.1 Table `forecast_eval_set_example` (the rows)
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+
125
+ ```sql
126
+ CREATE TABLE forecast_eval_set_example (
127
+ id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
128
+ choice_type TEXT NOT NULL CHECK (choice_type IN ('single','multi')),
129
+ question_type TEXT NOT NULL, -- yes_no | binary_named | multiple_choice
130
+ event TEXT NOT NULL, -- the event being predicted
131
+ options TEXT NOT NULL, -- JSON array of option labels
132
+ answer TEXT NOT NULL, -- canonical correct answer as letter(s)
133
+ end_time TEXT NOT NULL -- 'YYYY-MM-DD'
134
+ );
135
+
136
+ CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_choice_type ON forecast_eval_set_example(choice_type);
137
+ CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_question_type ON forecast_eval_set_example(question_type);
138
+ CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_end_time ON forecast_eval_set_example(end_time);
139
+ ```
140
+
141
+ ### 3.2 Table `dataset_metadata` (the recipe)
142
+
143
+ A single row recording the dataset name, split, row count, import timestamp, and a JSON
144
+ `features_json` blob with the **full prompt-reconstruction recipe** used by the OracleProto
145
+ evaluator. This is what makes the run reproducible — the prompt template, the four output
146
+ formats, the outcomes-block rule, and the agent role are all here in canonical form.
147
+
148
+ ```sql
149
+ CREATE TABLE dataset_metadata (
150
+ dataset_name TEXT NOT NULL,
151
+ split_name TEXT NOT NULL,
152
+ table_name TEXT NOT NULL,
153
+ row_count INTEGER NOT NULL,
154
+ imported_at_utc TEXT NOT NULL,
155
+ features_json TEXT NOT NULL -- see §5
156
+ );
157
+ ```
158
+
159
+ ### 3.3 Column semantics
160
+
161
+ | Column | Type | Description |
162
+ | --------------- | ------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
163
+ | `id` | TEXT | Stable source-side question ID inherited from the upstream HuggingFace forecasting set. Use this as the primary join key. |
164
+ | `choice_type` | TEXT | `'single'` if exactly one letter is correct, `'multi'` if one-or-more letters can be correct. Derived from the number of letters in `answer`. Drives output-format selection (single-answer vs multi-select instructions). |
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+ | `question_type` | TEXT | One of `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice`. Selects which prompt template is rendered (see §5). |
166
+ | `event` | TEXT | Natural-language description of the event being predicted. Author-edited for explicit time anchoring, unit explicitness, and unambiguous binary framing. |
167
+ | `options` | TEXT | JSON array of option **labels**. For `yes_no` it is fixed to `["Yes","No"]`. For `binary_named` it is two named entities. For `multiple_choice` it is a list of choice labels; the letter is implied by index (A=options[0], B=options[1], …). |
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+ | `answer` | TEXT | Canonical correct answer encoded as **letters**. For `yes_no` and `binary_named` it is a single letter `'A'` or `'B'`. For `multiple_choice` it is a comma-separated letter list in option order, e.g. `'A'` (single) or `'A, B'` (multi). |
169
+ | `end_time` | TEXT | Resolution date in `YYYY-MM-DD` format. The dataset stores a date only (no timestamp and no timezone field) — treat resolutions as "occurred during that day" at the granularity of one calendar day. Use this as the source of truth for the question's resolution day. |
170
+
171
+ ### 3.4 Letter-to-index encoding
172
+
173
+ Letters `A`, `B`, … map to option indices `0`, `1`, … using the rule
174
+ `index = ord(letter) - ord('A')`. Beyond the 26-letter alphabet (≥27 options) the labels
175
+ land on `[`, `\`, `]`, `^`, `_`, `` ` ``, `a`, `b`, …, i.e. the contiguous ASCII range
176
+ starting at `A`. The reference renderer wraps any non-`A`–`Z` label in backticks so the
177
+ label survives Markdown rendering. None of the 80 example questions exceed 26 options, but
178
+ the encoding scheme is documented for completeness because the evaluator and parser support
179
+ it.
180
+
181
+ ---
182
+
183
+ ## 4. Sample rows
184
+
185
+ A few representative rows (truncated for readability):
186
+
187
+ ```json
188
+ {
189
+ "id": "699d9ffc098cca008728b6f0",
190
+ "choice_type": "single",
191
+ "question_type": "yes_no",
192
+ "event": "Will the US PCE annual inflation be greater than 2.9% in January 2026?",
193
+ "options": ["Yes", "No"],
194
+ "answer": "B",
195
+ "end_time": "2026-03-13"
196
+ }
197
+ ```
198
+
199
+ ```json
200
+ {
201
+ "id": "69a2e39e5692ef005cdbf2d3",
202
+ "choice_type": "single",
203
+ "question_type": "binary_named",
204
+ "event": "Will US or Israel strike Iran first?",
205
+ "options": ["US", "Israel"],
206
+ "answer": "B",
207
+ "end_time": "2026-03-31"
208
+ }
209
+ ```
210
+
211
+ ```json
212
+ {
213
+ "id": "6995b1073ea64b005b11f285",
214
+ "choice_type": "single",
215
+ "question_type": "multiple_choice",
216
+ "event": "Which men's basketball team will win the Big 12 Conference Championship tournament in the 2025-26 season?",
217
+ "options": ["Arizona", "Baylor", "Brigham Young University (BYU)",
218
+ "Houston", "Iowa State", "Kansas", "Kansas State"],
219
+ "answer": "A",
220
+ "end_time": "2026-03-14"
221
+ }
222
+ ```
223
+
224
+ ```json
225
+ {
226
+ "id": "698f198bda7a8b006575444c",
227
+ "choice_type": "multi",
228
+ "question_type": "multiple_choice",
229
+ "event": "Which movies will win multiple Oscars? (2026)",
230
+ "options": ["One Battle After Another", "Sinners", "Frankenstein",
231
+ "KPop Demon Hunters", "F1", "Sentimental Value", "Hamnet",
232
+ "Marty Supreme", "The Secret Agent", "Avatar: Fire and Ash",
233
+ "Train Dreams", "Bugonia", "Blue Moon", "It Was Just An Accident"],
234
+ "answer": "A, B, C, D",
235
+ "end_time": "2026-03-15"
236
+ }
237
+ ```
238
+
239
+ ---
240
+
241
+ ## 5. Prompt reconstruction (canonical recipe)
242
+
243
+ Every row is rendered into a single user message using the recipe stored in
244
+ `dataset_metadata.features_json.prompt_reconstruction`. The recipe is byte-stable and is the
245
+ source of truth for the OracleProto evaluator; downstream users who reconstruct prompts
246
+ themselves should follow it exactly so results stay comparable.
247
+
248
+ ### 5.1 Static fragments
249
+
250
+ ```text
251
+ agent_role: "You are an agent that can predict future events."
252
+
253
+ guidance: "Do not use any other format. Do not refuse to make a prediction.
254
+ Do not say \"I cannot predict the future.\" You must make a clear
255
+ prediction based on the best data currently available, using the
256
+ box format specified above."
257
+ ```
258
+
259
+ ### 5.2 Master template
260
+
261
+ The block below is reproduced **verbatim** from the value stored in
262
+ `dataset_metadata.features_json.prompt_reconstruction.prompt_template`. It is a literal
263
+ string baked into the recipe; the dataset itself does not otherwise carry a timezone field
264
+ on `end_time` (see §3.3).
265
+
266
+ ```text
267
+ {agent_role} The event to be predicted: "{event} (resolved around {end_time} (GMT+8)).{outcomes_block}"
268
+
269
+ IMPORTANT: Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
270
+ {output_format}
271
+ {guidance}
272
+ ```
273
+
274
+ ### 5.3 `outcomes_block`
275
+
276
+ * For `yes_no` and `binary_named`: empty string (the option labels are baked into
277
+ `output_format` instead).
278
+ * For `multiple_choice`: a leading newline followed by one line per option in `A. <label>`
279
+ form, e.g. `\nA. Arizona\nB. Baylor\nC. Brigham Young University (BYU)\n…`. Labels whose
280
+ derived letter falls outside `A`–`Z` are wrapped in backticks.
281
+
282
+ ### 5.4 `output_format` (one of four, chosen by `question_type` × `choice_type`)
283
+
284
+ **`yes_no`:**
285
+ ```text
286
+ Your task is to predict whether the event will occur based on your analysis.
287
+ Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
288
+ Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
289
+ \boxed{Yes} or \boxed{No}
290
+ ```
291
+
292
+ **`binary_named`** (the literals `<options[0]>` and `<options[1]>` are replaced by the two
293
+ named entities from `options`):
294
+ ```text
295
+ Your task is to predict which of the two outcomes will occur based on your analysis.
296
+ Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
297
+ Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
298
+ \boxed{<options[0]>} or \boxed{<options[1]>}
299
+ ```
300
+
301
+ **`multiple_choice` with `choice_type='single'`:**
302
+ ```text
303
+ This is a SINGLE-ANSWER question: exactly ONE of the listed options is correct.
304
+ Your prediction will be scored on strict equality with the unique correct letter; choosing the wrong letter, or selecting more than one letter, scores zero.
305
+ Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
306
+ the single correct letter inside the box, e.g. \boxed{A}.
307
+ Do NOT list more than one letter, even if you believe two outcomes are tied — pick the one you find most likely.
308
+ ```
309
+
310
+ **`multiple_choice` with `choice_type='multi'`:**
311
+ ```text
312
+ This is a MULTI-SELECT question: ONE OR MORE of the listed options can be correct.
313
+ Your prediction will be scored on strict equality with the FULL set of correct letters: any extra letter, any missing letter, or any wrong letter scores zero. You must include ALL correct options and NO incorrect options.
314
+ Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
315
+ listing all correct option(s) you have identified, separated by commas, within the box.
316
+ For example: \boxed{A} for a single correct option, or \boxed{B, C} for multiple correct options.
317
+ ```
318
+
319
+ ### 5.5 Answer parsing
320
+
321
+ A reference parser is shipped with the OracleProto framework
322
+ ([`forecast_eval/parser.py::parse_answer`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/parser.py)).
323
+ The rules are:
324
+
325
+ 1. Take the **last** `\boxed{...}` substring in the model's reply (everything else is
326
+ reasoning / scratchpad and is ignored).
327
+ 2. For `yes_no`: `Yes` (case-insensitive) → `A`, `No` → `B`. Anything else → unparsed.
328
+ 3. For `binary_named`: case-insensitive match of the boxed payload against `options[0]` or
329
+ `options[1]`. Anything else → unparsed.
330
+ 4. For `multiple_choice`: split the boxed payload on commas/whitespace, validate that each
331
+ token is exactly one letter, and check that each letter resolves to a valid option index.
332
+ Out-of-range letters or multi-character tokens → unparsed.
333
+ 5. Predictions are scored by **strict set equality** against the canonical letter set
334
+ parsed from `answer`. A missing or unparsed boxed answer is recorded as `parse_ok = 0`
335
+ and is **not** an error of the parser — the run records it and moves on.
336
+
337
+ > The parser is the formal answer-validator $`\Psi`$ in the OracleProto run unit. Re-using
338
+ > it (rather than rolling your own regex) is the easiest way to get bit-identical scores
339
+ > across implementations.
340
+
341
+ ---
342
+
343
+ ## 6. Loading the dataset
344
+
345
+ ### 6.1 With raw `sqlite3` (no extra deps)
346
+
347
+ ```python
348
+ import sqlite3
349
+ import json
350
+
351
+ conn = sqlite3.connect("forecast_eval_set_example.db")
352
+ conn.row_factory = sqlite3.Row
353
+
354
+ # Read the rows.
355
+ rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example").fetchall()
356
+ print(f"loaded {len(rows)} rows")
357
+ sample = dict(rows[0])
358
+ sample["options"] = json.loads(sample["options"]) # JSON-decode option list
359
+ print(sample)
360
+
361
+ # Read the canonical prompt-reconstruction recipe.
362
+ meta_row = conn.execute("SELECT features_json FROM dataset_metadata").fetchone()
363
+ meta = json.loads(meta_row["features_json"])
364
+ prompt_template = meta["prompt_reconstruction"]["prompt_template"]
365
+ print(prompt_template)
366
+ ```
367
+
368
+ ### 6.2 With `huggingface_hub`
369
+
370
+ ```python
371
+ from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
372
+ import sqlite3, json
373
+
374
+ db_path = hf_hub_download(
375
+ repo_id="MaYiding/OracleProto",
376
+ filename="forecast_eval_set_example.db",
377
+ repo_type="dataset",
378
+ )
379
+ conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path)
380
+ rows = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example").fetchall()
381
+ ```
382
+
383
+ ### 6.3 Convert to a `datasets.Dataset`
384
+
385
+ ```python
386
+ import sqlite3, json
387
+ from datasets import Dataset
388
+
389
+ conn = sqlite3.connect("forecast_eval_set_example.db")
390
+ cur = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM forecast_eval_set_example")
391
+ cols = [c[0] for c in cur.description]
392
+
393
+ def _row(r):
394
+ d = dict(zip(cols, r))
395
+ d["options"] = json.loads(d["options"]) # list[str]
396
+ d["answer_letters"] = [
397
+ s.strip() for s in d["answer"].split(",") if s.strip()
398
+ ] # list[str]
399
+ return d
400
+
401
+ ds = Dataset.from_list([_row(r) for r in cur.fetchall()])
402
+ print(ds)
403
+ print(ds[0])
404
+ ```
405
+
406
+ ### 6.4 Render a prompt (minimal, faithful to the canonical recipe)
407
+
408
+ ```python
409
+ def render_prompt(row, meta):
410
+ rcp = meta["prompt_reconstruction"]
411
+ options = row["options"]
412
+ qt, ct = row["question_type"], row["choice_type"]
413
+
414
+ if qt == "yes_no":
415
+ outcomes_block = ""
416
+ out_fmt = rcp["yes_no_output_format"]
417
+ elif qt == "binary_named":
418
+ outcomes_block = ""
419
+ out_fmt = (
420
+ rcp["binary_named_output_format"]
421
+ .replace("<options[0]>", options[0])
422
+ .replace("<options[1]>", options[1])
423
+ )
424
+ elif qt == "multiple_choice":
425
+ outcomes_block = "\n" + "\n".join(
426
+ f"{chr(ord('A') + i)}. {label}" for i, label in enumerate(options)
427
+ )
428
+ key = (
429
+ "multiple_choice_single_output_format" if ct == "single"
430
+ else "multiple_choice_multi_output_format"
431
+ )
432
+ out_fmt = rcp[key]
433
+ else:
434
+ raise ValueError(qt)
435
+
436
+ return rcp["prompt_template"].format(
437
+ agent_role=rcp["agent_role"],
438
+ event=row["event"],
439
+ end_time=row["end_time"],
440
+ outcomes_block=outcomes_block,
441
+ output_format=out_fmt,
442
+ guidance=rcp["guidance"],
443
+ )
444
+ ```
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+
446
+ > The full reference renderer (with the > 26-option backtick rule and an optional reflection
447
+ > / belief-elicitation tail) lives at
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+ > [`forecast_eval/prompts.py`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py)
449
+ > in the OracleProto framework. Re-using it gives byte-identical prompts.
450
+
451
+ ---
452
+
453
+ ## 7. Recommended evaluation protocol
454
+
455
+ This dataset is meant to be paired with the **OracleProto** evaluation harness, which adds
456
+ information-boundary discipline on top of the bare prompt-and-score loop. The headline
457
+ recommendations are:
458
+
459
+ 1. **Declare a knowledge cutoff $`\kappa_M`$ for every model.** OracleProto admits a question
460
+ for model $`M`$ only when its prediction cutoff $`\chi_i`$ satisfies
461
+ $`\kappa_M \le \chi_i < \tau_i`$, where $`\tau_i`$ is the resolution time. Inadmissible
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+ questions are filtered upstream (not counted as model errors). This separates *"the model
463
+ failed to forecast"* from *"the model already knew the answer"*. Models with no declared
464
+ cutoff cannot be fairly compared to those with one.
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+
466
+ 2. **Time-mask any retrieval / browsing tool.** If your harness lets the model issue web
467
+ searches (e.g. via Tavily), pin the search-side `end_date` to $`\chi_i + \delta`$ with a
468
+ conservative offset (OracleProto defaults to $`\delta = -1`$ day). This is the L2
469
+ "tool-mediated" leakage barrier.
470
+
471
+ 3. **Run an independent retrieval-content auditor.** Each retrieved snippet is passed to a
472
+ separate LLM auditor that decides whether the snippet leaks the resolution. This is the
473
+ L3 "retrieval-content" barrier in the OracleProto threat model.
474
+
475
+ 4. **Forbid provider-native browsing.** OracleProto refuses model slugs ending in `:online`
476
+ and similar hosted-browsing variants on three layers (config validation, on-the-wire
477
+ client, and detector client) — the L4 residual that *must* pass before any billable LLM
478
+ call leaves the process.
479
+
480
+ 5. **Score with strict set equality on letter sets** (the parser semantics in §5.5). Optional
481
+ probability-calibration metrics (Brier / NLL / ECE / Murphy decomposition) are supported
482
+ when the model emits an additional `<belief>{ ... }</belief>` JSON block per the v4
483
+ belief protocol; the schema is documented in
484
+ [`forecast_eval/prompts.py::BELIEF_PROTOCOL`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py).
485
+
486
+ If you run *without* OracleProto, treat the numbers as **upper bounds on forecasting
487
+ ability**: any model that can browse the open web or that was trained past a question's
488
+ `end_time` may have memorised the answer. The dataset is designed to make this honesty audit
489
+ *possible*; it does not enforce it on its own.
490
+
491
+ ---
492
+
493
+ ## 8. Provenance and curation
494
+
495
+ * **Source.** Upstream HuggingFace forecasting questions, restricted to *levels 1+2* only
496
+ (the easier two of the upstream difficulty bands). The raw set was harvested as 322
497
+ candidate questions.
498
+ * **Curation pipeline (5 passes).**
499
+ 1. Source-side broken-row removal and column flattening.
500
+ 2. `end_time` / answer-encoding / option-label normalization (`end_time` reduced to a
501
+ `YYYY-MM-DD` calendar date; `Yes/No` mapped to `A/B`; option labels stripped of stray
502
+ markdown).
503
+ 3. Down-sampling 322 → 200 → 100 → 80 with placeholder/noise removal, deduplication, and
504
+ ambiguity audit.
505
+ 4. Final HIGH+MEDIUM ambiguity remediation: 4 rows reworded for explicit time anchoring,
506
+ unit explicitness, and unambiguous binary framing.
507
+ 5. CRITICAL fix on one S&P 500 multi-select truth set so it satisfies the
508
+ monotonic-threshold logic implied by the option ladder.
509
+ * **Verification.** All 80 ground-truths verified end-to-end by parser round-trip (the
510
+ rendered prompt is parsed and re-encoded back to the canonical letter set). Final tally:
511
+ **0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium ambiguity issues remaining**.
512
+
513
+ ---
514
+
515
+ ## 9. Intended uses and limitations
516
+
517
+ ### 9.1 Intended uses
518
+
519
+ * **Forecasting benchmark for LLMs and LLM agents** — particularly tool-using agents that
520
+ combine parametric knowledge with time-masked web retrieval.
521
+ * **Reproducibility testbed for forecasting harnesses** — the `dataset_metadata` table makes
522
+ every prompt byte-stable; pair it with the OracleProto framework to get a run unit that
523
+ yields bit-identical scoring artefacts when the configuration matches.
524
+ * **Calibration / proper-scoring research** — the 80-row size is deliberately small so
525
+ per-question analysis (belief evolution, source attribution, calibration plots) is
526
+ tractable.
527
+
528
+ ### 9.2 Out-of-scope uses
529
+
530
+ * **Training data.** Do not include the rows in any training, fine-tuning, or RLHF corpus;
531
+ doing so contaminates downstream forecasting evaluations of the trained model. The dataset
532
+ is an **evaluation-only** artefact.
533
+ * **Long-horizon forecasting.** All resolutions land in a one-month window
534
+ (2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14). The set is *not* representative of multi-quarter or
535
+ multi-year forecasting tasks.
536
+ * **Open-ended generation.** Every question has a closed answer set; this is not a
537
+ generation benchmark.
538
+
539
+ ### 9.3 Known limitations and biases
540
+
541
+ * **Sample size.** 80 rows is small. Confidence intervals on accuracy / Brier are wide; we
542
+ recommend reporting them alongside point estimates and using paired tests when comparing
543
+ models on the same set.
544
+ * **Topical skew.** The questions are concentrated in finance / macro indicators, sports
545
+ events, awards (Oscars, NBA, UEFA, etc.), and US-centric political and geopolitical
546
+ events — reflecting the upstream HuggingFace forecasting market mix. They are **not** a
547
+ globally representative sample of forecastable events.
548
+ * **English-only.** All `event` and `options` strings are English.
549
+ * **Date-only resolution.** `end_time` is a *date*, not a timestamp, and the dataset does
550
+ not carry a timezone field. If you need finer-grained admissibility, treat resolutions
551
+ conservatively as "occurred any time during that calendar day".
552
+ * **Provider-side residual leakage (L4 channel).** Any LLM that has ingested the upstream
553
+ HuggingFace dataset, or that was trained past the resolution window, can recover ground
554
+ truths from parametric memory. The dataset cannot patch this on its own — it relies on the
555
+ harness to enforce admissibility ($`\kappa_M`$).
556
+ * **Snapshot of a moving label space.** A few questions ("none of the above", "all of the
557
+ above") interact non-trivially with multi-select scoring; the curation pass fixed the one
558
+ S&P 500 case but the convention for similar questions in future revisions may shift. Pin
559
+ to the schema-version field if you need byte-stable behaviour across releases.
560
+
561
+ ---
562
+
563
+ ## 10. Versioning
564
+
565
+ * **`v1.0` (2026-04-29)** — initial public example release. 80 rows; resolution dates
566
+ 2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14; pipeline passes 1–5 above; 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium
567
+ ambiguity issues remaining.
568
+
569
+ The schema version is recorded inside the database
570
+ (`dataset_metadata.features_json.schema_version`), so consumers can pin against it without
571
+ re-deriving from the file's hash.
572
+
573
+ ---
574
+
575
+ ## 11. License
576
+
577
+ The dataset is released under the **MIT License** (see `LICENSE`). You are free to use,
578
+ copy, modify, and redistribute it, including for commercial purposes, provided the copyright
579
+ notice and license text are preserved.
580
+
581
+ The upstream questions originate from a public HuggingFace forecasting set; the curation
582
+ work, the schema, the prompt-reconstruction recipe, and the answer encodings in this release
583
+ are the contribution of this project.
584
+
585
+ ---
586
+
587
+ ## 12. Contact and contributions
588
+
589
+ Issues, schema feedback, and ambiguity reports are welcome. If you find a row whose ground
590
+ truth has changed, or whose framing is ambiguous under the §5.5 parser, please open an issue
591
+ in either of the project repositories:
592
+
593
+ * Dataset (this repo): [`MaYiding/OracleProto` on Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto/discussions) — for row-level questions, ambiguity reports, and label disputes.
594
+ * Framework code: [`MaYiding/OracleProto` on GitHub](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/issues) — for evaluator, parser, or harness behaviour.
595
+
596
+ When reporting a row-level issue, please include the `id`, the disputed framing, and (if
597
+ available) a primary source — those are the two inputs the curation pipeline needs to update
598
+ the row for the next release.