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@@ -20,37 +20,13 @@ size_categories:
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  pretty_name: OracleProto Forecasting Eval Set
21
  ---
22
 
23
- # OracleProto Forecasting Evaluation Set
24
 
25
  **Dataset:** [`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto) ·
26
  **Framework:** [`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) ·
27
  **License:** MIT
28
 
29
- A small, hand-curated benchmark of **80 real-world forecasting questions** whose ground truths
30
- resolve between **2026-03-12 and 2026-04-14**. The set is the public example release shipped
31
- with the [OracleProto framework](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) — a reproducible
32
- harness for benchmarking LLM-native forecasting via knowledge-cutoff and temporal-masking
33
- discipline.
34
-
35
- The dataset is shipped as **a single SQLite database file** named
36
- `forecast_eval_set_example.db`, which contains **two tables**:
37
-
38
- * `forecast_eval_set_example` — the 80 forecasting rows (one row per question).
39
- * `dataset_metadata` — a one-row table holding the canonical prompt-reconstruction recipe
40
- (prompt template, output formats, agent role, answer-encoding rules, provenance).
41
-
42
- The dataset is designed to be the **dataset \\(\mathcal{D}\\)** in the OracleProto run unit
43
- \\(\mathcal{R} = (\mathcal{D}, M, \kappa_M, \delta, T, C, R, \Psi, \phi, \Gamma)\\): every column,
44
- prompt template, and answer-encoding rule below is byte-stable and round-trip parsed by the
45
- reference parser, so a forecasting run on this set is auditable, replayable, and comparable
46
- across models and across calendar years.
47
-
48
- > **TL;DR.** 80 yes/no, two-named-entity, and multiple-choice (single-answer / multi-select)
49
- > questions on real-world events. All ground truths are verified end-to-end via parser
50
- > round-trip; 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium ambiguity issues remain. Distributed as a single
51
- > SQLite database file `forecast_eval_set_example.db` containing tables
52
- > `forecast_eval_set_example` (rows) and `dataset_metadata` (recipe), so the
53
- > prompt-reconstruction recipe and per-question metadata stay co-located with the rows.
54
 
55
  ---
56
 
@@ -61,14 +37,14 @@ across models and across calendar years.
61
  | Schema version | `v1.0` |
62
  | Release date | `2026-04-29` |
63
  | Rows | 80 |
64
- | Splits | `train` (80) single split, intended as a held-out evaluation set |
65
- | Resolution-date range | `2026-03-12` → `2026-04-14` |
66
  | Question types | `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice` |
67
  | Choice types | `single` (one correct letter), `multi` (one-or-more correct letters) |
68
  | Database file | `forecast_eval_set_example.db` (SQLite 3, ~52 KB) |
69
  | Tables in the file | `forecast_eval_set_example` (80 rows), `dataset_metadata` (1 row) |
70
  | License | MIT |
71
- | Source upstream | HuggingFace forecasting questions (levels 1+2 only), heavily curated |
72
 
73
  ### Type distribution
74
 
@@ -80,11 +56,7 @@ across models and across calendar years.
80
  | `multiple_choice` | `multi` | 8 |
81
  | **Total** | | **80** |
82
 
83
- `yes_no` is binary Yes/No, `binary_named` is binary between two named entities (e.g. sports
84
- teams, fighters, sides), and `multiple_choice` carries ≥3 labelled options where multiple
85
- correct answers are allowed; *"None of the above"* is a valid answer. Every question lists the
86
- exact option labels, so labels are the source of truth — letter labels (`A`, `B`, …) are
87
- implied by index.
88
 
89
  ---
90
 
@@ -98,27 +70,13 @@ OracleProto/
98
  └── .gitattributes # standard HF binary attributes
99
  ```
100
 
101
- The dataset ships as **one SQLite database file** rather than as Parquet/JSONL, because the
102
- prompt-reconstruction recipe, the column-level schema, and per-row provenance live in the
103
- same file (in the `dataset_metadata` table). This keeps the canonical source of truth —
104
- including the byte-stable `prompt_template` used by the evaluator — co-located with the
105
- rows. The file `forecast_eval_set_example.db` contains exactly two tables:
106
-
107
- * **`forecast_eval_set_example`** — the 80 forecasting rows. Schema and column semantics in §3.1 / §3.3.
108
- * **`dataset_metadata`** — a single-row table whose `features_json` blob holds the prompt
109
- template, the four output formats, the outcomes-block rule, the agent-role string, and
110
- the curation provenance. Schema in §3.2; full recipe rendered in §5.
111
-
112
- A loader example for converting to `datasets.Dataset` / Parquet is provided in §6.
113
 
114
  ---
115
 
116
  ## 3. Database schema
117
 
118
- The database **file** is `forecast_eval_set_example.db`. It contains exactly **two tables**:
119
- `forecast_eval_set_example` (80 forecasting rows) and `dataset_metadata` (1 metadata row).
120
- Note that the database file and the rows table happen to share the same name — the file is
121
- named after its primary table.
122
 
123
  ### 3.1 Table `forecast_eval_set_example` (the rows)
124
 
@@ -140,10 +98,7 @@ CREATE INDEX idx_forecast_eval_set_example_end_time ON forecast_eval_set_ex
140
 
141
  ### 3.2 Table `dataset_metadata` (the recipe)
142
 
143
- A single row recording the dataset name, split, row count, import timestamp, and a JSON
144
- `features_json` blob with the **full prompt-reconstruction recipe** used by the OracleProto
145
- evaluator. This is what makes the run reproducible — the prompt template, the four output
146
- formats, the outcomes-block rule, and the agent role are all here in canonical form.
147
 
148
  ```sql
149
  CREATE TABLE dataset_metadata (
@@ -152,7 +107,7 @@ CREATE TABLE dataset_metadata (
152
  table_name TEXT NOT NULL,
153
  row_count INTEGER NOT NULL,
154
  imported_at_utc TEXT NOT NULL,
155
- features_json TEXT NOT NULL -- see §5
156
  );
157
  ```
158
 
@@ -160,30 +115,22 @@ CREATE TABLE dataset_metadata (
160
 
161
  | Column | Type | Description |
162
  | --------------- | ------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
163
- | `id` | TEXT | Stable source-side question ID inherited from the upstream HuggingFace forecasting set. Use this as the primary join key. |
164
- | `choice_type` | TEXT | `'single'` if exactly one letter is correct, `'multi'` if one-or-more letters can be correct. Derived from the number of letters in `answer`. Drives output-format selection (single-answer vs multi-select instructions). |
165
- | `question_type` | TEXT | One of `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice`. Selects which prompt template is rendered (see §5). |
166
- | `event` | TEXT | Natural-language description of the event being predicted. Author-edited for explicit time anchoring, unit explicitness, and unambiguous binary framing. |
167
- | `options` | TEXT | JSON array of option **labels**. For `yes_no` it is fixed to `["Yes","No"]`. For `binary_named` it is two named entities. For `multiple_choice` it is a list of choice labels; the letter is implied by index (A=options[0], B=options[1], …). |
168
- | `answer` | TEXT | Canonical correct answer encoded as **letters**. For `yes_no` and `binary_named` it is a single letter `'A'` or `'B'`. For `multiple_choice` it is a comma-separated letter list in option order, e.g. `'A'` (single) or `'A, B'` (multi). |
169
- | `end_time` | TEXT | Resolution date in `YYYY-MM-DD` format. The dataset stores a date only (no timestamp and no timezone field) treat resolutions as "occurred during that day" at the granularity of one calendar day. Use this as the source of truth for the question's resolution day. |
170
 
171
  ### 3.4 Letter-to-index encoding
172
 
173
- Letters `A`, `B`, map to option indices `0`, `1`, … using the rule
174
- `index = ord(letter) - ord('A')`. Beyond the 26-letter alphabet (≥27 options) the labels
175
- land on `[`, `\`, `]`, `^`, `_`, `` ` ``, `a`, `b`, …, i.e. the contiguous ASCII range
176
- starting at `A`. The reference renderer wraps any non-`A`–`Z` label in backticks so the
177
- label survives Markdown rendering. None of the 80 example questions exceed 26 options, but
178
- the encoding scheme is documented for completeness because the evaluator and parser support
179
- it.
180
 
181
  ---
182
 
183
  ## 4. Sample rows
184
 
185
- A few representative rows (truncated for readability):
186
-
187
  ```json
188
  {
189
  "id": "699d9ffc098cca008728b6f0",
@@ -240,10 +187,7 @@ A few representative rows (truncated for readability):
240
 
241
  ## 5. Prompt reconstruction (canonical recipe)
242
 
243
- Every row is rendered into a single user message using the recipe stored in
244
- `dataset_metadata.features_json.prompt_reconstruction`. The recipe is byte-stable and is the
245
- source of truth for the OracleProto evaluator; downstream users who reconstruct prompts
246
- themselves should follow it exactly so results stay comparable.
247
 
248
  ### 5.1 Static fragments
249
 
@@ -258,11 +202,6 @@ guidance: "Do not use any other format. Do not refuse to make a prediction.
258
 
259
  ### 5.2 Master template
260
 
261
- The block below is reproduced **verbatim** from the value stored in
262
- `dataset_metadata.features_json.prompt_reconstruction.prompt_template`. It is a literal
263
- string baked into the recipe; the dataset itself does not otherwise carry a timezone field
264
- on `end_time` (see §3.3).
265
-
266
  ```text
267
  {agent_role} The event to be predicted: "{event} (resolved around {end_time} (GMT+8)).{outcomes_block}"
268
 
@@ -271,13 +210,12 @@ IMPORTANT: Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
271
  {guidance}
272
  ```
273
 
 
 
274
  ### 5.3 `outcomes_block`
275
 
276
- * For `yes_no` and `binary_named`: empty string (the option labels are baked into
277
- `output_format` instead).
278
- * For `multiple_choice`: a leading newline followed by one line per option in `A. <label>`
279
- form, e.g. `\nA. Arizona\nB. Baylor\nC. Brigham Young University (BYU)\n…`. Labels whose
280
- derived letter falls outside `A`–`Z` are wrapped in backticks.
281
 
282
  ### 5.4 `output_format` (one of four, chosen by `question_type` × `choice_type`)
283
 
@@ -289,8 +227,7 @@ Your final answer MUST end with this exact format:
289
  \boxed{Yes} or \boxed{No}
290
  ```
291
 
292
- **`binary_named`** (the literals `<options[0]>` and `<options[1]>` are replaced by the two
293
- named entities from `options`):
294
  ```text
295
  Your task is to predict which of the two outcomes will occur based on your analysis.
296
  Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
@@ -318,25 +255,15 @@ For example: \boxed{A} for a single correct option, or \boxed{B, C} for multiple
318
 
319
  ### 5.5 Answer parsing
320
 
321
- A reference parser is shipped with the OracleProto framework
322
- ([`forecast_eval/parser.py::parse_answer`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/parser.py)).
323
- The rules are:
324
-
325
- 1. Take the **last** `\boxed{...}` substring in the model's reply (everything else is
326
- reasoning / scratchpad and is ignored).
327
- 2. For `yes_no`: `Yes` (case-insensitive) `A`, `No` `B`. Anything else unparsed.
328
- 3. For `binary_named`: case-insensitive match of the boxed payload against `options[0]` or
329
- `options[1]`. Anything else unparsed.
330
- 4. For `multiple_choice`: split the boxed payload on commas/whitespace, validate that each
331
- token is exactly one letter, and check that each letter resolves to a valid option index.
332
- Out-of-range letters or multi-character tokens → unparsed.
333
- 5. Predictions are scored by **strict set equality** against the canonical letter set
334
- parsed from `answer`. A missing or unparsed boxed answer is recorded as `parse_ok = 0`
335
- and is **not** an error of the parser — the run records it and moves on.
336
-
337
- > The parser is the formal answer-validator \\(\Psi\\) in the OracleProto run unit. Re-using
338
- > it (rather than rolling your own regex) is the easiest way to get bit-identical scores
339
- > across implementations.
340
 
341
  ---
342
 
@@ -443,72 +370,38 @@ def render_prompt(row, meta):
443
  )
444
  ```
445
 
446
- > The full reference renderer (with the > 26-option backtick rule and an optional reflection
447
- > / belief-elicitation tail) lives at
448
- > [`forecast_eval/prompts.py`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py)
449
- > in the OracleProto framework. Re-using it gives byte-identical prompts.
450
 
451
  ---
452
 
453
  ## 7. Recommended evaluation protocol
454
 
455
- This dataset is meant to be paired with the **OracleProto** evaluation harness, which adds
456
- information-boundary discipline on top of the bare prompt-and-score loop. The headline
457
- recommendations are:
458
-
459
- 1. **Declare a knowledge cutoff \\(\kappa_M\\) for every model.** OracleProto admits a question
460
- for model \\(M\\) only when its prediction cutoff \\(\chi_i\\) satisfies
461
- \\(\kappa_M \le \chi_i < \tau_i\\), where \\(\tau_i\\) is the resolution time. Inadmissible
462
- questions are filtered upstream (not counted as model errors). This separates *"the model
463
- failed to forecast"* from *"the model already knew the answer"*. Models with no declared
464
- cutoff cannot be fairly compared to those with one.
465
-
466
- 2. **Time-mask any retrieval / browsing tool.** If your harness lets the model issue web
467
- searches (e.g. via Tavily), pin the search-side `end_date` to \\(\chi_i + \delta\\) with a
468
- conservative offset (OracleProto defaults to \\(\delta = -1\\) day). This is the L2
469
- "tool-mediated" leakage barrier.
470
-
471
- 3. **Run an independent retrieval-content auditor.** Each retrieved snippet is passed to a
472
- separate LLM auditor that decides whether the snippet leaks the resolution. This is the
473
- L3 "retrieval-content" barrier in the OracleProto threat model.
474
-
475
- 4. **Forbid provider-native browsing.** OracleProto refuses model slugs ending in `:online`
476
- and similar hosted-browsing variants on three layers (config validation, on-the-wire
477
- client, and detector client) — the L4 residual that *must* pass before any billable LLM
478
- call leaves the process.
479
-
480
- 5. **Score with strict set equality on letter sets** (the parser semantics in §5.5). Optional
481
- probability-calibration metrics (Brier / NLL / ECE / Murphy decomposition) are supported
482
- when the model emits an additional `<belief>{ ... }</belief>` JSON block per the v4
483
- belief protocol; the schema is documented in
484
- [`forecast_eval/prompts.py::BELIEF_PROTOCOL`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py).
485
-
486
- If you run *without* OracleProto, treat the numbers as **upper bounds on forecasting
487
- ability**: any model that can browse the open web or that was trained past a question's
488
- `end_time` may have memorised the answer. The dataset is designed to make this honesty audit
489
- *possible*; it does not enforce it on its own.
490
 
491
  ---
492
 
493
  ## 8. Provenance and curation
494
 
495
- * **Source.** Upstream HuggingFace forecasting questions, restricted to *levels 1+2* only
496
- (the easier two of the upstream difficulty bands). The raw set was harvested as 322
497
- candidate questions.
498
  * **Curation pipeline (5 passes).**
499
  1. Source-side broken-row removal and column flattening.
500
- 2. `end_time` / answer-encoding / option-label normalization (`end_time` reduced to a
501
- `YYYY-MM-DD` calendar date; `Yes/No` mapped to `A/B`; option labels stripped of stray
502
- markdown).
503
- 3. Down-sampling 322 200 100 80 with placeholder/noise removal, deduplication, and
504
- ambiguity audit.
505
- 4. Final HIGH+MEDIUM ambiguity remediation: 4 rows reworded for explicit time anchoring,
506
- unit explicitness, and unambiguous binary framing.
507
- 5. CRITICAL fix on one S&P 500 multi-select truth set so it satisfies the
508
- monotonic-threshold logic implied by the option ladder.
509
- * **Verification.** All 80 ground-truths verified end-to-end by parser round-trip (the
510
- rendered prompt is parsed and re-encoded back to the canonical letter set). Final tally:
511
- **0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium ambiguity issues remaining**.
512
 
513
  ---
514
 
@@ -516,83 +409,46 @@ ability**: any model that can browse the open web or that was trained past a que
516
 
517
  ### 9.1 Intended uses
518
 
519
- * **Forecasting benchmark for LLMs and LLM agents** particularly tool-using agents that
520
- combine parametric knowledge with time-masked web retrieval.
521
- * **Reproducibility testbed for forecasting harnesses** the `dataset_metadata` table makes
522
- every prompt byte-stable; pair it with the OracleProto framework to get a run unit that
523
- yields bit-identical scoring artefacts when the configuration matches.
524
- * **Calibration / proper-scoring research** — the 80-row size is deliberately small so
525
- per-question analysis (belief evolution, source attribution, calibration plots) is
526
- tractable.
527
 
528
  ### 9.2 Out-of-scope uses
529
 
530
- * **Training data.** Do not include the rows in any training, fine-tuning, or RLHF corpus;
531
- doing so contaminates downstream forecasting evaluations of the trained model. The dataset
532
- is an **evaluation-only** artefact.
533
- * **Long-horizon forecasting.** All resolutions land in a one-month window
534
- (2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14). The set is *not* representative of multi-quarter or
535
- multi-year forecasting tasks.
536
- * **Open-ended generation.** Every question has a closed answer set; this is not a
537
- generation benchmark.
538
 
539
  ### 9.3 Known limitations and biases
540
 
541
- * **Sample size.** 80 rows is small. Confidence intervals on accuracy / Brier are wide; we
542
- recommend reporting them alongside point estimates and using paired tests when comparing
543
- models on the same set.
544
- * **Topical skew.** The questions are concentrated in finance / macro indicators, sports
545
- events, awards (Oscars, NBA, UEFA, etc.), and US-centric political and geopolitical
546
- events — reflecting the upstream HuggingFace forecasting market mix. They are **not** a
547
- globally representative sample of forecastable events.
548
  * **English-only.** All `event` and `options` strings are English.
549
- * **Date-only resolution.** `end_time` is a *date*, not a timestamp, and the dataset does
550
- not carry a timezone field. If you need finer-grained admissibility, treat resolutions
551
- conservatively as "occurred any time during that calendar day".
552
- * **Provider-side residual leakage (L4 channel).** Any LLM that has ingested the upstream
553
- HuggingFace dataset, or that was trained past the resolution window, can recover ground
554
- truths from parametric memory. The dataset cannot patch this on its own — it relies on the
555
- harness to enforce admissibility (\\(\kappa_M\\)).
556
- * **Snapshot of a moving label space.** A few questions ("none of the above", "all of the
557
- above") interact non-trivially with multi-select scoring; the curation pass fixed the one
558
- S&P 500 case but the convention for similar questions in future revisions may shift. Pin
559
- to the schema-version field if you need byte-stable behaviour across releases.
560
 
561
  ---
562
 
563
  ## 10. Versioning
564
 
565
- * **`v1.0` (2026-04-29)** initial public example release. 80 rows; resolution dates
566
- 2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14; pipeline passes 1–5 above; 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium
567
- ambiguity issues remaining.
568
 
569
- The schema version is recorded inside the database
570
- (`dataset_metadata.features_json.schema_version`), so consumers can pin against it without
571
- re-deriving from the file's hash.
572
 
573
  ---
574
 
575
  ## 11. License
576
 
577
- The dataset is released under the **MIT License** (see `LICENSE`). You are free to use,
578
- copy, modify, and redistribute it, including for commercial purposes, provided the copyright
579
- notice and license text are preserved.
580
-
581
- The upstream questions originate from a public HuggingFace forecasting set; the curation
582
- work, the schema, the prompt-reconstruction recipe, and the answer encodings in this release
583
- are the contribution of this project.
584
 
585
  ---
586
 
587
  ## 12. Contact and contributions
588
 
589
- Issues, schema feedback, and ambiguity reports are welcome. If you find a row whose ground
590
- truth has changed, or whose framing is ambiguous under the §5.5 parser, please open an issue
591
- in either of the project repositories:
592
 
593
- * Dataset (this repo): [`MaYiding/OracleProto` on Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto/discussions) for row-level questions, ambiguity reports, and label disputes.
594
- * Framework code: [`MaYiding/OracleProto` on GitHub](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/issues) for evaluator, parser, or harness behaviour.
595
 
596
- When reporting a row-level issue, please include the `id`, the disputed framing, and (if
597
- available) a primary source — those are the two inputs the curation pipeline needs to update
598
- the row for the next release.
 
20
  pretty_name: OracleProto Forecasting Eval Set
21
  ---
22
 
23
+ # OracleProto: Forecasting Evaluation Set
24
 
25
  **Dataset:** [`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto) ·
26
  **Framework:** [`MaYiding/OracleProto`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto) ·
27
  **License:** MIT
28
 
29
+ A SQLite-packaged evaluation set of 80 hand-curated forecasting questions on real-world events, with resolution dates between 2026-03-12 and 2026-04-14, released alongside the [OracleProto framework](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto). Both the rows and the byte-stable prompt-reconstruction recipe ship inside a single file, `forecast_eval_set_example.db`, which holds two tables: `forecast_eval_set_example` (the 80 rows) and `dataset_metadata` (the recipe).
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
30
 
31
  ---
32
 
 
37
  | Schema version | `v1.0` |
38
  | Release date | `2026-04-29` |
39
  | Rows | 80 |
40
+ | Splits | `train` (80); single split, intended as a held-out evaluation set |
41
+ | Resolution-date range | `2026-03-12` → `2026-04-14` (GMT+8) |
42
  | Question types | `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice` |
43
  | Choice types | `single` (one correct letter), `multi` (one-or-more correct letters) |
44
  | Database file | `forecast_eval_set_example.db` (SQLite 3, ~52 KB) |
45
  | Tables in the file | `forecast_eval_set_example` (80 rows), `dataset_metadata` (1 row) |
46
  | License | MIT |
47
+ | Source upstream | HuggingFace forecasting questions (levels 1+2), 322 raw → 80 curated |
48
 
49
  ### Type distribution
50
 
 
56
  | `multiple_choice` | `multi` | 8 |
57
  | **Total** | | **80** |
58
 
59
+ `yes_no` is binary Yes/No; `binary_named` is binary between two named entities such as sports teams, fighters, or sides; `multiple_choice` carries at least three labelled options with one or more correct letters allowed, and "None of the above" is a valid answer when listed. Each row stores the exact option labels; letter `A` maps to `options[0]`, `B` to `options[1]`, and so on (§3.4 covers labels beyond `Z`).
 
 
 
 
60
 
61
  ---
62
 
 
70
  └── .gitattributes # standard HF binary attributes
71
  ```
72
 
73
+ The dataset ships as one SQLite file, not Parquet or JSONL, because the prompt-reconstruction recipe and per-row provenance live in the same file as the rows (in `dataset_metadata.features_json`). A loader for `datasets.Dataset` and Parquet conversion appears in §6.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
74
 
75
  ---
76
 
77
  ## 3. Database schema
78
 
79
+ Two tables: `forecast_eval_set_example` holds the 80 rows; `dataset_metadata` holds the canonical recipe. The file takes its name from the primary table.
 
 
 
80
 
81
  ### 3.1 Table `forecast_eval_set_example` (the rows)
82
 
 
98
 
99
  ### 3.2 Table `dataset_metadata` (the recipe)
100
 
101
+ A one-row table whose `features_json` blob carries the prompt template, the four output formats, the outcomes-block rule, the agent-role string, and curation provenance. The full recipe is rendered in §5.
 
 
 
102
 
103
  ```sql
104
  CREATE TABLE dataset_metadata (
 
107
  table_name TEXT NOT NULL,
108
  row_count INTEGER NOT NULL,
109
  imported_at_utc TEXT NOT NULL,
110
+ features_json TEXT NOT NULL
111
  );
112
  ```
113
 
 
115
 
116
  | Column | Type | Description |
117
  | --------------- | ------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
118
+ | `id` | TEXT | Stable source-side question ID inherited from the upstream HuggingFace forecasting set; primary join key. |
119
+ | `choice_type` | TEXT | `'single'` if exactly one letter is correct, `'multi'` if one-or-more letters can be correct. Derived from the number of letters in `answer`. Drives the single-answer vs multi-select branch in §5.4. |
120
+ | `question_type` | TEXT | One of `yes_no`, `binary_named`, `multiple_choice`. Selects which prompt template is rendered (§5). |
121
+ | `event` | TEXT | Natural-language description of the event being predicted, author-edited for explicit time anchoring, unit explicitness, and unambiguous binary framing. |
122
+ | `options` | TEXT | JSON array of option labels. For `yes_no` it is fixed to `["Yes","No"]`. For `binary_named` it is two named entities. For `multiple_choice` it is a list of choice labels whose letter is implied by index (`A=options[0]`, `B=options[1]`, …). |
123
+ | `answer` | TEXT | Canonical correct answer encoded as letters. For `yes_no` and `binary_named` it is `'A'` or `'B'`. For `multiple_choice` it is a comma-separated letter list in option order, e.g. `'A'` or `'A, B'`. |
124
+ | `end_time` | TEXT | Resolution date in `YYYY-MM-DD`. The column stores a calendar date only; the prompt template (§5.2) supplies the GMT+8 reading. If finer-grained admissibility is needed, treat each resolution as covering the whole calendar day. |
125
 
126
  ### 3.4 Letter-to-index encoding
127
 
128
+ Letters map to option indices via `index = ord(letter) - ord('A')`. Beyond `Z` (≥27 options) the labels run on as `[`, `\`, `]`, `^`, `_`, `` ` ``, `a`, `b`, , the contiguous ASCII range starting at `A`. The reference renderer wraps any non-`A`–`Z` label in backticks so it survives Markdown rendering. None of the 80 rows exceed 26 options, but the encoding is documented because the framework's parser supports it.
 
 
 
 
 
 
129
 
130
  ---
131
 
132
  ## 4. Sample rows
133
 
 
 
134
  ```json
135
  {
136
  "id": "699d9ffc098cca008728b6f0",
 
187
 
188
  ## 5. Prompt reconstruction (canonical recipe)
189
 
190
+ Every row is rendered into a single user message via the recipe stored in `dataset_metadata.features_json.prompt_reconstruction`. The recipe is byte-stable and is the source of truth for the OracleProto evaluator; downstream users who reconstruct prompts themselves should follow it exactly so results stay comparable.
 
 
 
191
 
192
  ### 5.1 Static fragments
193
 
 
202
 
203
  ### 5.2 Master template
204
 
 
 
 
 
 
205
  ```text
206
  {agent_role} The event to be predicted: "{event} (resolved around {end_time} (GMT+8)).{outcomes_block}"
207
 
 
210
  {guidance}
211
  ```
212
 
213
+ The literal `(GMT+8)` inside the user-visible string is what gives `end_time` its timezone reading; the column itself stores only a date.
214
+
215
  ### 5.3 `outcomes_block`
216
 
217
+ For `yes_no` and `binary_named`: empty, since the option labels are baked into `output_format`.
218
+ For `multiple_choice`: a leading newline followed by one line per option in `A. <label>` form, e.g. `\nA. Arizona\nB. Baylor\nC. Brigham Young University (BYU)\n…`. Labels whose derived letter falls outside `A`–`Z` are wrapped in backticks.
 
 
 
219
 
220
  ### 5.4 `output_format` (one of four, chosen by `question_type` × `choice_type`)
221
 
 
227
  \boxed{Yes} or \boxed{No}
228
  ```
229
 
230
+ **`binary_named`** (the literals `<options[0]>` and `<options[1]>` are replaced by the two named entities from `options`):
 
231
  ```text
232
  Your task is to predict which of the two outcomes will occur based on your analysis.
233
  Your prediction will be scored based on its accuracy. You will only receive points if your answer is correct.
 
255
 
256
  ### 5.5 Answer parsing
257
 
258
+ The reference parser ([`forecast_eval/parser.py::parse_answer`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/parser.py)) applies these rules:
259
+
260
+ 1. Take the **last** `\boxed{...}` substring in the model's reply; everything else is reasoning or scratchpad and is ignored.
261
+ 2. For `yes_no` (case-insensitive): `Yes` → `A`, `No` → `B`. Anything else is unparsed.
262
+ 3. For `binary_named` (case-insensitive): match the boxed payload against `options[0]` or `options[1]`. Anything else is unparsed.
263
+ 4. For `multiple_choice`: split the boxed payload on commas and whitespace, validate that each token is a single letter, and check that each letter resolves to a valid option index. Out-of-range letters or multi-character tokens are unparsed.
264
+ 5. Score by strict set equality against the canonical letter set parsed from `answer`. A missing or unparsed boxed answer is recorded as `parse_ok = 0` rather than treated as a parser error; the run records it and moves on.
265
+
266
+ Reusing the framework's parser is the practical way to get bit-identical scores across implementations.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
267
 
268
  ---
269
 
 
370
  )
371
  ```
372
 
373
+ The full reference renderer (with the >26-option backtick rule and an optional reflection / belief-elicitation tail) lives at [`forecast_eval/prompts.py`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py); reusing it gives byte-identical prompts.
 
 
 
374
 
375
  ---
376
 
377
  ## 7. Recommended evaluation protocol
378
 
379
+ Pair the dataset with the OracleProto evaluation harness, which layers information-boundary discipline on top of the bare prompt-and-score loop. Five concrete recommendations:
380
+
381
+ 1. **Declare a knowledge cutoff $\kappa_M$ for every model.** A question is admissible for model $M$ only when $\kappa_M \le \chi_i < \tau_i$, where $\chi_i$ is the per-question prediction cutoff and $\tau_i$ is its resolution date. Inadmissible questions are filtered upstream rather than counted as model errors. A model with no declared cutoff cannot be fairly compared to one that has one.
382
+
383
+ 2. **Time-mask any retrieval or browsing tool.** If the harness lets the model issue web searches, pin the search-side `end_date` to $\chi_i + \delta$ with a conservative offset; OracleProto defaults to $\delta = -1$ day. The mechanism behind this barrier (L2) is documented in the framework's DESIGN and FRAME notes.
384
+
385
+ 3. **Run an independent retrieval-content auditor.** Each retrieved snippet is passed to a separate LLM auditor that decides whether the snippet leaks the resolution. This is the L3 barrier in the framework's threat model.
386
+
387
+ 4. **Forbid provider-native browsing.** OracleProto refuses model slugs ending in `:online` and similar hosted-browsing variants on three layers: config validation, on-the-wire client, and detector client. This is the L4 residual that must pass before any billable LLM call leaves the process.
388
+
389
+ 5. **Score with strict set equality on letter sets**, per §5.5. Optional probability-calibration metrics (Brier, NLL, ECE, Murphy decomposition) are supported when the model emits an additional `<belief>{ ... }</belief>` JSON block per the v4 belief protocol; the schema is documented in [`forecast_eval/prompts.py::BELIEF_PROTOCOL`](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/blob/main/forecast_eval/prompts.py).
390
+
391
+ Without the OracleProto harness in place, treat the resulting numbers as upper bounds on forecasting ability: any model that can browse the open web, or that was trained past a question's `end_time`, may have memorised the answer. The dataset makes the honesty audit possible; it does not enforce it on its own.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
392
 
393
  ---
394
 
395
  ## 8. Provenance and curation
396
 
397
+ * **Source.** Upstream HuggingFace forecasting questions, restricted to *levels 1+2* (the easier two of the upstream difficulty bands). The raw set was harvested as 322 candidate questions.
 
 
398
  * **Curation pipeline (5 passes).**
399
  1. Source-side broken-row removal and column flattening.
400
+ 2. `end_time` / answer-encoding / option-label normalization: `end_time` reduced to a `YYYY-MM-DD` calendar date; `Yes/No` mapped to `A/B`; option labels stripped of stray markdown.
401
+ 3. Down-sampling 322 200 100 80 with placeholder removal, deduplication, and an ambiguity audit.
402
+ 4. Final HIGH+MEDIUM ambiguity remediation: 4 rows reworded for explicit time anchoring, unit explicitness, and unambiguous binary framing.
403
+ 5. CRITICAL fix on one S&P 500 multi-select truth set so it satisfies the monotonic-threshold logic implied by the option ladder.
404
+ * **Verification.** All 80 ground-truths verified end-to-end via parser round-trip (the rendered prompt is parsed and re-encoded back to the canonical letter set). Final tally: 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium ambiguity issues remaining.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
405
 
406
  ---
407
 
 
409
 
410
  ### 9.1 Intended uses
411
 
412
+ * **Forecasting benchmark for LLMs and LLM agents**, particularly tool-using agents that combine parametric knowledge with time-masked web retrieval.
413
+ * **Reproducibility testbed for forecasting harnesses.** The `dataset_metadata` table makes every prompt byte-stable; pairing it with the OracleProto framework yields a run unit whose scoring artefacts are bit-identical when the configuration matches.
414
+ * **Calibration and proper-scoring research.** The 80-row size is small enough that per-question analysis (belief evolution, source attribution, calibration plots) stays tractable.
 
 
 
 
 
415
 
416
  ### 9.2 Out-of-scope uses
417
 
418
+ * **Training data.** Including the rows in any training, fine-tuning, or RLHF corpus contaminates downstream forecasting evaluations of the trained model. The dataset is evaluation-only.
419
+ * **Long-horizon forecasting.** All resolutions land in a one-month window (2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14); the set does not represent multi-quarter or multi-year forecasting.
420
+ * **Open-ended generation.** Every question has a closed answer set, so this is not a generation benchmark.
 
 
 
 
 
421
 
422
  ### 9.3 Known limitations and biases
423
 
424
+ * **Sample size.** 80 rows is small. Confidence intervals on accuracy or Brier are wide; report them alongside point estimates and use paired tests when comparing models on the same set.
425
+ * **Topical skew.** Questions concentrate in finance and macro indicators, sports events, awards (Oscars, NBA, UEFA, etc.), and US-centric political and geopolitical events, reflecting the upstream HuggingFace market mix. They are not a globally representative sample.
 
 
 
 
 
426
  * **English-only.** All `event` and `options` strings are English.
427
+ * **Date-only resolution.** `end_time` is a date, not a timestamp, and the dataset does not carry a timezone column. If finer-grained admissibility is needed, treat each resolution as covering the whole GMT+8 calendar day.
428
+ * **Provider-side residual leakage.** Any LLM that has ingested the upstream HuggingFace dataset, or that was trained past the resolution window, can recover ground truths from parametric memory. The dataset cannot patch this on its own; it relies on the harness to enforce admissibility ($\kappa_M$).
429
+ * **Snapshot of a moving label space.** A few questions ("none of the above", "all of the above") interact non-trivially with multi-select scoring; the curation pass fixed the one S&P 500 case, but the convention for similar questions in future revisions may shift. Pin to the schema version if byte-stable behaviour across releases is required.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
430
 
431
  ---
432
 
433
  ## 10. Versioning
434
 
435
+ * **`v1.0` (2026-04-29).** Initial public example release. 80 rows; resolution dates 2026-03-12 → 2026-04-14; pipeline passes 1–5 above; 0 critical / 0 high / 0 medium ambiguity issues remaining.
 
 
436
 
437
+ The schema version is recorded inside the database at `dataset_metadata.features_json.schema_version`, so consumers can pin against it without re-deriving from the file's hash.
 
 
438
 
439
  ---
440
 
441
  ## 11. License
442
 
443
+ Released under the **MIT License** (see `LICENSE`). The upstream questions originate from a public HuggingFace forecasting set; the curation work, schema, prompt-reconstruction recipe, and answer encodings in this release are the contribution of this project.
 
 
 
 
 
 
444
 
445
  ---
446
 
447
  ## 12. Contact and contributions
448
 
449
+ Issues, schema feedback, and ambiguity reports are welcome. If a row's ground truth has changed, or its framing is ambiguous under §5.5, open an issue in the relevant repository:
 
 
450
 
451
+ * Dataset (this repo): [`MaYiding/OracleProto` on Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto/discussions) for row-level questions, ambiguity reports, and label disputes.
452
+ * Framework code: [`MaYiding/OracleProto` on GitHub](https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto/issues) for evaluator, parser, or harness behaviour.
453
 
454
+ Row-level reports should include the `id`, the disputed framing, and where available a primary source; those are the inputs the curation pipeline needs to update the row in the next release.