diff --git "a/7704_EPD.json" "b/7704_EPD.json"
new file mode 100644--- /dev/null
+++ "b/7704_EPD.json"
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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Valuation\nBy Envision Research\nPublished on: 2023-01-19T01:15:25Z\n\nI see very bright earnings prospects for Enterprise Products Partners L.P. both in the near term and also long term. Click here to see my take on EPD stock.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nDragan Mihajlovic\nDragan Mihajlovic\nI see a divergence between the earnings prospects of Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) and its market valuations. On the one hand, I see an encouraging earnings growth curve ahead both in the near term and also long term. In the near term, the amount of volume of all products being transported through its system of pipelines set a record in Q3 of 2022. And margins in the key NG&L Pipeline segment rose substantially, leading to a nearly 25% YOY gain in profit as seen from the chart below (from about $223 in Q3 2021 to $278 in Q3 2022).\nIn the longer term, as one of the world\u00e2\u0080\u0099s largest exporters of LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), I expect demand to remain robust. Demand from Europe should continue to rise as the EU intends to reduce its reliance on Russian gas going forward. And demands in the United States should remain robust, too, given the underinvestment in energy infrastructure over the past many years in the country, as I have repeatedly argued in my other articles. Last but not least, EPD is involved in just about every major shale play in its sector. It is one of the most diversified members of this industry both in terms of geographical diversity and product categories. Besides its key NG&L segment, it also transports a vast array of raw materials (ethane, propane, butane etc.). Thus, the risk to any single product line or geographical location is minimized.\nYet, its valuation is discounted heavily by the market \u00e2\u0080\u0093 in the range of 20% to 35% by my estimates as to be detailed later. And in the remainder of this article, I will explain why such a divergence between its fundamentals and valuation metrics seems absurd.\nA quick note before moving on, for MLPs, their \u00e2\u0080\u009cshares\u00e2\u0080\u009d should be called \u00e2\u0080\u009cunits\u00e2\u0080\u009d and hence their EPS should be called earnings per unit (\u00e2\u0080\u009cEPU\u00e2\u0080\u009d). But considering that the article may be read by a range of readers, some of whom may not be particularly familiar with these terminologies, I will keep mentioning shares and EPS in the remainder of the article.\nSource: EPD 2022 Q3 ER (EPD)\nSource: EPD 2022 Q3 ER (EPD)\nAs just mentioned above, Enterprise Products Partners L.P. has been enjoying record volumes transported through its pipelines, as reflected in its asset turnover rate (aka asset utilization rate, AUR) shown in the top panel of the next chart. To wit, its AUR dialed in at 0.813x as of the most recent quarter on a TTM basis. It almost doubled from the bottom level of 0.43x during the COVID breakout and is also about 15% above its long-term average of 0.715x.\nThe combination of robust volume and favorable pricing environments has resulted in healthy profits and margins. As aforementioned, margins in the key NG&L pipeline segment rose almost 25% year-over-year gain in the past quarter.\nThe margin from the NG&L segment was partially offset by a decline in the petrochemical and refined operations. But overall, its margins are at a healthy level by historical standards as measured by its EBITDA margin (as shown in the bottom panel of the chart).\nLooking forward, as aforementioned, I anticipate the demand from both Europe and the U.S. to stay robust given the geopolitical shift of the energy landscapes caused by the Russian/Ukraine war. And next, I will explain why EPD is well-positioned to benefit from this shift.\nSource: Seeking Alpha data\nSource: Seeking Alpha data\nIn the long term, the growth potential of any firm is governed by two factors ultimately, the return on invested capital (\u00e2\u0080\u009cROIC\u00e2\u0080\u009d) and the reinvestment rates (\u00e2\u0080\u009cRR\u00e2\u0080\u009d). And EPD enjoys healthy metrics in both areas. In terms of ROIC, the chart below shows its current ROIC hovers around 17%, far above its historical average of ~14%. In terms of reinvestment, the company has been maintaining a plowback ratio in the range of 20% to 25% in recent years.\nAn ROIC of 17% and an RR of 20% could lead to 3.4% of organic real growth. And given the long-term pricing power EPD boasts, adding a conservative inflation escalator of 2.5% can push the growth rate to about 6%.\nAnd next, I will show that a 6% growth rate, when coupled with its current valuation discount, already offers an extremely favorable return profile in the years to come.\nSource: Seeking Alpha data\nSource: Seeking Alpha data\nEnterprise Products Partners L.P. is currently priced at a discounted valuation based on the metrics I\u00e2\u0080\u0099ve examined. As a reliable dividend stock (a dividend champ actually), dividend yield should be the most reliable valuation metric here. As seen from the chart below, its current yield of 7.36% is near the highest level in a decade. It is above its historical average of 6% by 22%, signaling a 22% valuation discount.\nThe second chart below shows its P/E ratios, which suggests an even larger discount. Its P/E sits around 11x currently. Compared to its historical average of 17.68x, it is discounted by about 35%.\nSource: Seeking Alpha data  Source: Seeking Alpha data\nSource: Seeking Alpha data\nSource: Seeking Alpha data\nThe combination of a healthy growth curve and the large valuation discount offers an appealing return profile as summarized in the waterfall chart below. Specifically, I am projecting a 9.2% total annual return in the next 3~5 years, consisting of:\nSource: Author based on Seeking Alpha data\nSource: Author based on Seeking Alpha data\nEnterprise Products Partners L.P. faces both specific and macroeconomic risks though. In terms of macroeconomic risks, inflation is an ongoing concern. Or more precisely, the interest rate increases triggered by inflation are an ongoing concern. As a typical pipeline player, EPD is quite leveraged and therefore sensitive to higher borrowing costs. In terms of its own specific risks, as mentioned above, it is currently facing some headwinds in its petrochemical and refined operations. Also, the potential for its growth in the United States or overseas would also require the construction of more terminals and therefore substantial CAPEX expenditures.\nAll told, the divergence between Enterprise Products Partners L.P.\u00e2\u0080\u0099s fundamentals and valuation metrics seems absurd to me. And absurdity in the stock market often signals outsized return potentials. And indeed, in this case, I am seeing an annual return potential for Enterprise Products Partners L.P. close to double-digits (9.2% based on my projection). And lastly, note out of the 9.2% projected returns, 7.3% would come from its dividends \u00e2\u0080\u0093 adding another layer of safety considering its dividend champ status.\nAs you can tell, our core style is to provide actionable and unambiguous ideas from our independent research. If your share this investment style, check out Envision Early Retirement. It provides at least 1x in-depth articles per week on such ideas.\nWe have helped our members not only to beat S&P 500 but also avoid heavy drawdowns despite the extreme volatilities in BOTH the equity AND bond market.\nJoin for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too.\nThis article was written by\nEnvision Research, aka Lucas Ma, has over 15+ years of investment experience and holds a Masters with in Quantitative Investment and a PhD in Mechanical Engineering with a focus on renewable energy, both from Stanford University. He also has 30+ years of hands-on experience in high-tech R&D and consulting, housing sector, credit sector, and actual portfolio management.\nHe leads the investing group Envision Early Retirement along with Sensor Unlimited where they offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation. Features include: two model portfolios - one for short-term survival/withdrawal and one for aggressive long-term growth, direct access via chat to discuss ideas, monthly updates on all holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques by request.\nAnalyst\u00e2\u0080\u0099s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.  I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nSeeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\n", "timestamp_ms": 1674090925000, "published_utc": "2023-01-19T01:15:25Z", "article_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570756-enterprise-products-market-will-regret-the-absurd-valuation", "label_type": ["[2][a] Fundamental Analysis", "[1][c] Company-Specific News", "[1][b] Stock Market Updates"], "label_time": ["[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)", "[3][b] Medium-Term Outlook (6 months \u2013 2 years)", "[1][c] Long-Term Retrospective (> 1 year)"], "label_sentiment": ["[1][a] Bullish"]}, "trend": {"input_percentage_change": 0.11605443709934715, "input_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%", "output_percentage_change": 1.083778793817198, "output_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%", "overall_percentage_change": -0.6054687500000044, "overall_bin_label": "-2% ~ +2%"}, "technical": {"in_sma_10": 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\ No newline at end of file