Initialize predictions companion for flusight-forecast-hub

README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+---
+pretty_name: "Predictions \u2014 FluSight Forecast Hub \u2014 flu hospital admission\
+  \ target"
+license: other
+tags:
+- epi-eval
+- predictions
+- forecast-evaluation
+- companion-of-flusight-forecast-hub
+configs:
+- config_name: default
+  data_files:
+  - split: train
+    path: data/*.parquet
+---
+
+# Predictions for FluSight Forecast Hub — flu hospital admission target
+
+Community-submitted forecasts targeting [`EPI-Eval/flusight-forecast-hub`](https://huggingface.co/datasets/EPI-Eval/flusight-forecast-hub).
+Each row is one quantile (or point) forecast for one target date — see the
+schema below.
+
+This repo accumulates accepted submissions from many forecasters. New
+predictions arrive as community pull requests opened from the [EPI-Eval
+dashboard](https://github.com/ChrisHarig/apart-forecasting-tool); a
+maintainer reviews each PR before merging.
+
+## Schema (v1)
+
+| column | type | notes |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| `target_date` | string (`YYYY-MM-DD`) | The date being forecast |
+| `target_dataset` | string | Always `flusight-forecast-hub` |
+| `target_column` | string | Truth column being forecast (see below) |
+| `submitter` | string | Forecaster name or HF username |
+| `model_name` | string | Identifier for the model run |
+| `description` | string | Free-form notes on the model |
+| `quantile` | float (nullable) | In `[0, 1]`. `null` = point estimate |
+| `value` | float | Forecast value (in the truth column's units) |
+| `submitted_at` | string (ISO 8601) | UTC submission timestamp |
+| _(pass-through dims)_ | string | Categorical dims from the source CSV |
+
+Long format: one row per `(target_date, [dim values…], quantile)`. A
+forecaster providing the median plus 50%/80%/95% intervals emits 7 rows per
+date (one point + 6 quantiles). Multiple submissions from the same forecaster
+land as separate parquet files under `data/`.
+
+## Forecast targets
+
+Truth columns from `EPI-Eval/flusight-forecast-hub` you can forecast:
+
+- `value` (admissions/week)
+- `weekly_rate` (admissions/week per 100k)
+
+## Submitting
+
+The dashboard at [apart-forecasting-tool](https://github.com/ChrisHarig/apart-forecasting-tool)
+handles the full submission flow: drag-drop a CSV, pick this dataset as the
+"Compare to" target, review your scores against the truth, and click "Submit
+to HuggingFace." The dashboard serializes your CSV into the schema above and
+opens a community PR here.
+
+## Notes
+
+- Predictions whose `target_date` falls outside the truth dataset's coverage
+  (forecast horizon) are still accepted. Comparison metrics on the dashboard
+  compute only on the dates where truth is available.
+- A submission's `submitter` value is its only identity claim — there's no
+  signed authentication. Reviewers should sanity-check unfamiliar submitters.
+
+_Initialized by `upload_pipeline.core.bootstrap_predictions_repos`._