v2: Add in-match opponent profiling and adaptive parameter tuning

submission.py

@@ -3350,6 +3350,85 @@ def plan_moves(world, deadline=None):
 _agent_step = 0
 
 
+# ============================================================
+# In-Match Opponent Profiler
+# ============================================================
+
+class _OpponentProfilerImpl:
+    """Tracks opponent behavior during a match for real-time adaptation.
+    
+    Maintains exponential moving averages of:
+    - Aggression: fleet launch rate (how often they attack)
+    - Expansion: planet capture speed
+    - Strength balance: whether we're ahead or behind
+    """
+    
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.alpha = 0.08  # EMA smoothing factor
+        self.aggression = 0.5
+        self.expansion_rate = 0.5
+        self.prev_enemy_planets = 0
+        self.prev_enemy_fleets = 0
+        self.prev_my_ships = 0
+        self.prev_enemy_ships = 0
+        self.my_planet_count = 0
+        self.enemy_planet_count = 0
+        self.step_count = 0
+        self.current_step = 0
+    
+    def update(self, obs):
+        get = obs.get if isinstance(obs, dict) else lambda k, d=None: getattr(obs, k, d)
+        player = int(get("player", 0) or 0)
+        step = int(get("step", 0) or 0)
+        planets = get("planets") or []
+        fleets = get("fleets") or []
+        
+        self.current_step = step
+        
+        enemy_planets = sum(1 for p in planets if p[1] not in (-1, player))
+        enemy_fleets = sum(1 for f in fleets if f[1] != player)
+        my_ships = sum(p[5] for p in planets if p[1] == player)
+        my_ships += sum(f[6] for f in fleets if f[1] == player)
+        enemy_ships = sum(p[5] for p in planets if p[1] not in (-1, player))
+        enemy_ships += sum(f[6] for f in fleets if f[1] != player)
+        
+        self.my_planet_count = sum(1 for p in planets if p[1] == player)
+        self.enemy_planet_count = enemy_planets
+        
+        if self.step_count > 0:
+            # Track fleet launch frequency
+            fleet_delta = max(0, enemy_fleets - self.prev_enemy_fleets)
+            self.aggression = (1 - self.alpha) * self.aggression + self.alpha * min(1.0, fleet_delta / 4.0)
+            
+            # Track expansion rate
+            planet_delta = enemy_planets - self.prev_enemy_planets
+            expansion_signal = max(0.0, min(1.0, (planet_delta + 1) / 3.0))
+            self.expansion_rate = (1 - self.alpha) * self.expansion_rate + self.alpha * expansion_signal
+        
+        self.prev_enemy_planets = enemy_planets
+        self.prev_enemy_fleets = enemy_fleets
+        self.prev_my_ships = my_ships
+        self.prev_enemy_ships = enemy_ships
+        self.step_count += 1
+    
+    def get_profile(self):
+        total = self.prev_my_ships + self.prev_enemy_ships
+        my_share = self.prev_my_ships / max(1, total)
+        
+        return {
+            "aggression": self.aggression,
+            "expansion_rate": self.expansion_rate,
+            "we_are_ahead": my_share > 0.55,
+            "we_are_behind": my_share < 0.42,
+            "enemy_expanding_fast": self.expansion_rate > 0.6,
+            "late_game": self.current_step > 350,
+            "confident": self.step_count > 30,
+        }
+
+
+_profiler = _OpponentProfilerImpl()
+
+
 def _read(obs, key, default=None):
     if isinstance(obs, dict):
         return obs.get(key, default)
@@ -3386,8 +3465,76 @@ def build_world(obs, inferred_step=None):
 
 def agent(obs, config=None):
     global _agent_step
+    global HOSTILE_TARGET_VALUE_MULT, ELIMINATION_BONUS, PROACTIVE_DEFENSE_RATIO
+    global FINISHING_HOSTILE_VALUE_MULT, WEAK_ENEMY_THRESHOLD, ATTACK_COST_TURN_WEIGHT
+    global HOSTILE_MARGIN_BASE, FOUR_PLAYER_TARGET_MARGIN, FINISHING_HOSTILE_SEND_BONUS
+    global STATIC_HOSTILE_VALUE_MULT, GANG_UP_VALUE_MULT, EXPOSED_PLANET_VALUE_MULT
+    global REINFORCE_VALUE_MULT, DEFENSE_SHIP_VALUE, BEHIND_DOMINATION, AHEAD_DOMINATION
+    global LATE_REMAINING_TURNS, REAR_SEND_RATIO_TWO_PLAYER, COMET_VALUE_MULT, SNIPE_VALUE_MULT
+    
     _agent_step += 1
     start_time = time.perf_counter()
+    
+    # ---- In-match opponent profiling & adaptive parameter adjustment ----
+    _profiler.update(obs)
+    
+    if _agent_step > 20:  # wait for enough data
+        profile = _profiler.get_profile()
+        
+        # Adapt based on opponent aggression
+        if profile["aggression"] > 0.6:
+            # Opponent is very aggressive → be more defensive
+            PROACTIVE_DEFENSE_RATIO = 0.38
+            DEFENSE_SHIP_VALUE = 0.70
+            HOSTILE_TARGET_VALUE_MULT = 1.80
+            REINFORCE_VALUE_MULT = 1.55
+            BEHIND_DOMINATION = -0.30
+        elif profile["aggression"] < 0.3:
+            # Opponent is passive/turtle → be very aggressive, expand fast
+            PROACTIVE_DEFENSE_RATIO = 0.15
+            DEFENSE_SHIP_VALUE = 0.40
+            HOSTILE_TARGET_VALUE_MULT = 2.30
+            ELIMINATION_BONUS = 70.0
+            EXPOSED_PLANET_VALUE_MULT = 2.5
+            GANG_UP_VALUE_MULT = 1.6
+        else:
+            # Balanced opponent → use tuned defaults
+            PROACTIVE_DEFENSE_RATIO = 0.28
+            DEFENSE_SHIP_VALUE = 0.55
+            HOSTILE_TARGET_VALUE_MULT = 2.05
+            ELIMINATION_BONUS = 55.0
+            EXPOSED_PLANET_VALUE_MULT = 2.0
+            GANG_UP_VALUE_MULT = 1.4
+        
+        # Adapt based on relative strength
+        if profile["we_are_ahead"]:
+            # We're ahead → play safe, consolidate, don't overextend
+            ATTACK_COST_TURN_WEIGHT = 0.55
+            BEHIND_DOMINATION = -0.15
+            AHEAD_DOMINATION = 0.20
+            REAR_SEND_RATIO_TWO_PLAYER = 0.55
+        elif profile["we_are_behind"]:
+            # We're behind → be more aggressive, take risks
+            ATTACK_COST_TURN_WEIGHT = 0.40
+            BEHIND_DOMINATION = -0.30
+            WEAK_ENEMY_THRESHOLD = 140
+            FINISHING_HOSTILE_VALUE_MULT = 1.5
+            FINISHING_HOSTILE_SEND_BONUS = 7
+            SNIPE_VALUE_MULT = 1.3
+        
+        # Adapt based on expansion rate
+        if profile["enemy_expanding_fast"]:
+            # Enemy is expanding fast → contest neutrals more aggressively
+            COMET_VALUE_MULT = 0.85
+            STATIC_HOSTILE_VALUE_MULT = 1.85
+            FOUR_PLAYER_TARGET_MARGIN = 1
+        
+        # Late-game adaptation
+        if profile["late_game"]:
+            LATE_REMAINING_TURNS = 80
+            ELIMINATION_BONUS = max(ELIMINATION_BONUS, 65.0)
+            FINISHING_HOSTILE_VALUE_MULT = max(FINISHING_HOSTILE_VALUE_MULT, 1.4)
+    
     world = build_world(obs, inferred_step=_agent_step - 1)
     if not world.my_planets:
         return []